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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Foreign Affairs Open Thread: Putin on the Fritz

Foreign Affairs Open Thread: Putin on the Fritz

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Putin - STOCKPILE

(Walt Handelsman via GoComics.com)

 

But seriously… Russian immigrant Julia Ioffe, at Puck this Tuesday, on “Ukraine’s Guns of August“:

… The blitz recalled Yevgeny Prigozhin’s “March of Fairness” in June 2023, when his mercenary Wagner troops took over Rostov, the southern Russian city from which much of the war against Ukraine was being run, and made it halfway to Moscow without Russian government troops putting up much of a fight. (Prigozhin, you’ll remember, conveniently died in a plane crash last August, most likely after a bomb exploded on board.) So it was shocking to see, this time around, how little the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense seem to have learned from that caper, and how much arrogance seems to underlie some of the decisions to fortify—or not fortify—the Russia-Ukraine border.

A week later, the situation is still very much in flux, with neither the Russian or Ukrainian sides saying too much about it. (What they have said, though, is fairly predictable: glee from the latter and fury from the former.) Ukrainian forces now control somewhere shy of 300 square miles of Russian territory. But from everything I’ve read and heard, no one seems to know what the plan is—or if a plan even exists. On some level, it seems that this is a new chapter in the same book we’ve been reading since February 2022: the Ukrainian military, ever the underdog, does something daring that surprises and dazzles the West and looks amazing on social media; the Russian military is caught off guard and unprepared, which leads to an embarrassing loss; but the law of large numbers gradually catches up, Russia learns from its mistakes, adjusts, and begins to overwhelm Ukraine once again through sheer numerical advantage.

Are we seeing the same thing play out in Kursk? Or is this time different? Will it help Ukraine change the trajectory of the war, or even the narrative? I called my friend Michael Kofman, a military analyst with the Carnegie Endowment (who also happens to have been born in Kyiv), to find out. Our conversation, which I hope you enjoy, has been edited for length and clarity…

What do you think were the objectives of the push into Kursk?
My own sense of it is that Ukraine likely hopes to raise its troops’ morale and to change both internal and external perceptions of the war by conducting a daring and bold offensive of this kind into Russia. At the very least, it would help change the narrative—and it clearly has, at least for a few weeks—of what has so far been an overall negative trajectory for the war over the past year.

I suspect the actual objective of this operation is to hold some amount of territory in Kherson and hope to trade that for territory Russia is currently occupying—for example, the buffer zone they’ve taken in Kharkiv. Or alternatively, at the bare minimum, to entrench and use this buffer in order to pull in Russian forces from Kharkiv and other parts of the front inside Ukraine. Russian political leadership is clearly going to be furious over the prospect of a prolonged occupation of Russian territory, which ideally will divert some significant percentage of the Russian forces currently pressing the Ukrainian military along the front in Donetsk. The idea here, I think, is to create perhaps a larger but more successful version of the battle in Krynky—when Ukrainian forces crossed the river and held this lodgment for quite a long time in Kherson—a forced, attritional battle…

Putin on the Fritz - STOCKPILE

(Jeff Danziger via GoComics.com)

Reader Interactions

69Comments

  1. 1.

    schrodingers_cat

    The forces of autocracy while not completely defeated have been on the backfoot lately. Putin seems to be scrambling. In India BJP heads a minority government, the Tories lost badly, may that trend continue in November

  3. 3.

    hells littlest angel

    “Or do they not care about the dead littering the streets when they’re Russian bodies?”

     

    Uh, Vlad, you’d better sit down …

  5. 5.

    Marleedog

    To put this somewhat into perspective,  300 sq mi is about 1/5 the area of Rhode Island.

  6. 6.

    hitchhiker

    Last night I finally watched the documentary 20 Days in Mariupol. It’s hard to think that there are sitting members of the US Congress who openly support Vladimir Putin, but that is where we are.

  7. 7.

    SpaceUnit

    That statement by Putin would be laughable if I wasn’t worried that he was establishing a pretense for using nukes.

  9. 9.

    Another Scott

    Interesting stuff. Ukraine is continuing to make VVP look like a petulant gangster rather than head of a modern nation with a professional military.

    Made me look. RUSI.org (from September 2023):

    There are important questions about what Prigozhin’s demise means for the future of loyal Wagnerites currently residing in Belarus; about the implications for Wagner’s activities abroad, particularly in Africa; and about what messaging this may have for any others in Prigozhin’s position.

    But whether the Kremlin is ultimately responsible for Prigozhin’s demise or not, the most pressing question for President Vladimir Putin himself will be whether these events have been sufficient to quash any of the after-effects of Prigozhin’s short-lived rebellion two months ago, and whether this will have any serious implications for the upcoming election cycle.

    […]

    First, since Prigozhin’s mutiny, the Kremlin has taken restrictive steps to prevent a similar recurrence, and has boosted internal security in a number of specific ways. In a direct response to the rebellion, one of the most visible of these was to give regional governors the authority to establish their own private military companies, designed to counter domestic uprisings. These paramilitary units would have a role not only in defending Russia’s borders – as beleaguered border regions such as southern Belgorod have come under increasing attack from insurgent anti-Kremlin groups in recent months – but also from internal dissent. This suggests that Moscow is taking seriously the idea that figures similar to Prigozhin might appear, and that the Kremlin needs to be prepared.

    Second, it was revealing that in the wake of Prigozhin’s death, one of the Kremlin’s first actions was to call the Rosgvardia (National Guard) back from its holidays in Rostov where the rebellion first occurred, and to put all security services on high alert. It was evident that the Kremlin expected some sort of backlash to his death, although none has yet come.

    […]

    So far, it doesn’t look like much of the military, or the National Guard, or the local PMCs, have much interest in putting up a fight against Ukraine in Kursk. Certainly not to the standards one would expect from the “2nd best military in the world”.

    [recycled joke] Russia claims to be the 2nd best military in the world, but it looks like they’re the 2nd best military in Russia. [/recycled joke]

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  10. 10.

    TBone

    I think it was a brilliant move.  I hope Putin’s feet of clay continue to crumble, along with those of all of our dictator-wannabe and autocratic enemies.

  16. 16.

    JML

    There’s a reality that a stalemate as is very much favors Putin, who has more resources and a lot of the land that he actually wanted in the first place (not entirely, but it’s substantial) under something resembling Russian control. Getting to a cease-fire and drawing new borders as is would have been a win for him…but not so much if he’s actually lost Russian territory.

    I’m not sure how this plays out, but making these kinds of strikes might have more strategic value than tactical for Ukraine if it changes the political landscape around somehow freezing things “as is” or doing something to make this war more of a reality for more of the Russian people. At what point will civil unrest grow in Russia? (can it?)

    I don’t approve of assassination but if anyone deserves it it’s Putin…

  17. 17.

    TBone

    I see that Comer announced an investigation into Tim Walz’s “connection to the Chinese Communist Party” today 🙄.  I wish him all the success of his previous investigations.

  19. 19.

    Geminid

    @Another Scott: WTOP’s* national security  reporter  J.J. Green said Putin has now put Russia’s FSB security agency  in charge of Kursk Oblast operations because he has lost faith in the Russian  Army and doesn’t think it can do the  job.

    * I get DC’s all-news WTOP on their Fredericksburg  transimitter, 107.7 FM. A good news source.

  21. 21.

    matt

    Putin’s sad that nobody is condemning Ukraine for fighting back and seizing Russian land? Is he so far up his own asshole that he’s forgotten what human beings are like?

  22. 22.

    matt

    @hitchhiker: I mean, loathsome people like Marge Greene and Matt Gaetz are in Congress. I’m surprised none of them has been found with 55 gallon drums full of corpses in their basement.

  23. 23.

    Shalimar

    I suspect the Ukrainians have an idea of what they want to happen next.  No one including the Ukrainians thought about invading Kursk until it turned out they had been planning an operation for months.

  25. 25.

    Shalimar

    @matt: There are no basements where Gaetz lives. water table is too high.  He keeps his corpses in the storage shed out back.

  29. 29.

    Chet Murthy

    @mrmoshpotato: I doubt he sees the average Russian as a human being either.  Which doesn’t change the gravity of what you wrote: I agree completely with you.

  33. 33.

    Shalimar

    @Ken: I was a few feet from a young 4-foot alligator last night.  Gaetz does not have the fortitude to raise alligators.  They’re very scary.

  36. 36.

    trollhattan

    Ukraine: hey Russia, you taught us everything about invading a neighboring nation. So we took all your lessons and then did the opposite.

  39. 39.

    Shalimar

    @SatanicPanic: The average age of Russians killed in Ukraine is apparently 39.  That sounds a lot like the only people signing up for the fighting are older men resigned to dying so their families can get the death payoffs.

  40. 40.

    Ihop

    I am such an infrequent commenter, but  i want it known that it gives me no joy to see rock solid confirmation that pooty-poot is an indicted whiny ass kitty baby.

  45. 45.

    Ihop

    I am such an infrequent commenter, but I wish it known it gives me no joy that pooty-poot is such an indicted whiny ass titty baby.

  47. 47.

    Chet Murthy

    @zhena gogolia: All the commentators I’ve watched (e.g. Anders Puck Nielsen, Mark Galeotti) say that Putin isn’t making the mistake of an involuntary mobilization: he’s using incentives (usu money) to get volunteers.  And sure, also prisoner battalions, which we wouldn’t call voluntary.  Though Galeotti thinks that pretty soon Putin’s gonna have to call for another involuntary mobilization, b/c of this Kursk incursion.

  48. 48.

    Shalimar

    @zhena gogolia: I am sure you have read a lot more on this than I have.  My understanding is that conscripts can’t be deployed outside of Russia, so the units fighting in Ukraine are mostly people who have signed up for it.

  49. 49.

    Chet Murthy

    @Shalimar: Galeotti talked about this recently.  He explained that early on in the war, conscripts were sent over the border into Ukraine, and the outcry from mothers was fierce: so fierce that Putin pretty much had to promise that it wouldn’t happen again, and he’s apparently pretty much abided by that promise.

    Though, I’ve read of cases (how many?  no idea) of conscripts being forced to sign contracts.

  52. 52.

    Gvgg something illeagle

    I had guessed that Ukraine meant to destroy specific strategic targets, possibly that were going to be used against them soon. I haven’t seen any confirmation so I am probably wrong. I would be, gathering military supplies and destroying armaments they can’t use plus factory’s and supply depots of arms and soldier supplies. You know, military targets like Russia can’t be bothered to do, but which actually help with a real war effort. Cutting roads and train tracks would also be useful, and ports.

  54. 54.

    sdhays

    @Shalimar: Laws don’t really work in Russia, but anyway, according to Russia,  Crimea, Donetsk, and Kherson ARE Russia, for legal purposes.

  62. 62.

    satby

    Quick update on the GFM for Buddy cat, with the deepest appreciation for all the support today 💗:

    He’s doing well, surgery was a success and probably a complete cure. It turned out to be a mechanical obstruction from something he ate (hair, fur, string?) that got hung up in his gut and caused a slow growing blockage. He doesn’t have megacolon after all. He is staying in the hospital until Monday to get IV antibiotics to prevent peritonitis.

    I can’t express how grateful I am (and he is too, though he doesn’t know why, just that it’s much better, especially with good painkillers!) Thank you, thank you!

  63. 63.

    TBone

    @mrmoshpotato: please do not explain my language to me.  I did not stoop to publicly calling him or describing him as inhuman because I am not a Nazi.  But I can think it for myself in this instance.

    I know the difference.

  68. 68.

    Quaker in a Basement

    Vlad must have learned by now that it’s a bad look to whine about the consequences of your own fuckups.

  69. 69.

    Ruckus

    @matt:

    Is he so far up his own asshole that he’s forgotten what human beings are like?

    I’d say yes, Putin is so far up his own ass that he can actually see daylight. And his neck hurts from being stretched that far.

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