A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing great. Next treatment is Monday and I’ll have more to report then.
Air raid alerts are up over all of eastern, central, and northern Ukraine as of 10:1 PM EDT/ 5;12 AM local time in Ukraine. Russian strategic aviation is airborne over Russia, which means this morning’s bombardment will be cruise missiles in addition to Shahed drones.
Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov claims the Starlink Snowflake gave him a Cybertruck as a gift. Which Kadyrov quickly mounted a machine gun on and then claims to have sent to his troops fighting as part of Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine.
Kadyrov said he received a Tesla Cybertrack from Elon Musk. He promised to send it to the “special military operation” zone and attached a machine gun to it.
“Elon, thank you! Come to Grozny, I will receive you as the most dear guest! I do not think that our Russian MFA will be… pic.twitter.com/m72fg2G2PU
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 17, 2024
Kadyrov said he received a Tesla Cybertrack from Elon Musk. He promised to send it to the “special military operation” zone and attached a machine gun to it.
“Elon, thank you! Come to Grozny, I will receive you as the most dear guest! I do not think that our Russian MFA will be against such a trip. And, of course, we are waiting for your new developments that will contribute to the completion of the SMO,” Kadyrov wrote on his Telegram channel.
If the Starlink Snowflake has actually given Kadyrov a Cybertruck as a gift, that is a bit of a problem for Apartheid Clyde. Because Kadyrov has been under US sanctions since 2017, with additional sanctions added as a result of his participation in Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine.
The Starlink Snowflake’s tech also seems to be installed on Russia’s new naval drone:
***BREAKING***#Russian naval drone (USV) shown with Starlink (!)
Russia is generally behind #Ukraine in use of USVs, but this design appears sensible, similar to Magura and Sea Baby types#OSINThttps://t.co/VzxHUm5W8G
— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) August 13, 2024
From Naval News:
The war in the Black Sea has been shaped, maybe even defined, by maritime drones. So far it has been a Ukrainian dominated arena, with Russia lagging behind Ukraine in the adoption of uncrewed surface vessels (USVs). Now Russia appears to be slowly entering the game with increasingly credible designs.
The latest type, the Murena-300S appears generally comparable with Ukrainian types. And more significantly, it appears to have a Starlink antenna.
Starlink satellite communications have played an important part in enabling Ukrainian drones to operate so effectively. Along with the rival Kymeta system, it allows the drones to be controlled in real time. This has permitted a human-in-the-loop approach to attacking enemy ships, with the pilot ashore literally guiding the USV into the target. This has only been possible thanks to the data rate and reliability of these systems.
The apparent Starlink antenna on the Murena-300S has been hidden under camouflage netting but its distinctive shape is evident. The corners of the square antenna are also just visible in photographs from the event.
Russian troops can purchase Starlink abroad with numbers of terminals acquired on the open market. Since its use by Russian troops came to light earlier this year, the Pentagon teamed up with SpaceX, who make it, to block Russia from using it. How effective this will be remains to be seen. Certainly the inclusion of an antenna on the vessel suggests that it isn’t entirely written off.
Possibly the antenna is for a different satellite network, or possibly it is only a prop intended as a ruse. However, while the manufacturer doesn’t call out the Starlink, it does claim “On-line Interference-proof GNSS” which fits. As well as this, the USV is advertised as having an inertial navigation system (INS), electrooptical sensors, infrared thermal imaging and LIDAR.
More at the link!
The Starlink Snowflake, despite being having a very public drug addiction, has a high level US security clearance. He has one because of his ownership of SpaceX. The drug use alone should disqualify him from keeping that clearance, but Kadyrov’s claims that Musk has violated US sanctions allowing Kadyrov to repurpose a Cybertruck into an assault vehicle to be used against Ukraine, as well as H.I. Sutton’s reporting that Starlink terminals are on Russia’s newest naval drones, are all just further evidence that his clearance should be stripped and caged. While Colin Kahl fortunately stepped down as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in mid-2023, before he did he explained to everyone why the Biden administration allows Musk to maintain his clearances and control over a major defense contractor:
Last October, Colin Kahl, then the Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy at the Pentagon, sat in a hotel in Paris and prepared to make a call to avert disaster in Ukraine. A staffer handed him an iPhone—in part to avoid inviting an onslaught of late-night texts and colorful emojis on Kahl’s own phone. Kahl had returned to his room, with its heavy drapery and distant view of the Eiffel Tower, after a day of meetings with officials from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. A senior defense official told me that Kahl was surprised by whom he was about to contact: “He was, like, ‘Why am I calling Elon Musk?’ ”
The reason soon became apparent. “Even though Musk is not technically a diplomat or statesman, I felt it was important to treat him as such, given the influence he had on this issue,” Kahl told me.
You may have noticed the category error that Kahl made, which was feeling that it was important to treat Musk as if he was something he is not. One of the major errors the Biden administration, especially its senior natsec appointees, have made over and over since 2001 is not realizing that there’s no point in having power if you’re not going to use it. With the exception of the cult of personality stock bubble driving Tesla profits, every cent Musk has made at Tesla (carbon offset credits) and SpaceX is from US government contracts. Moreover, he’s a walking securities and exchange violation and has openly supported parties and/or attempts to overthrow the government. The latter of which is disqualifying for holding a clearance.
Biden’s natsec appointees, including the absolute failure of an attorney general Merrick Garland, need to grow a spine very quickly and deal with the Musk problem before it gets worse. Musk, as well as Thiel and the rest of their ultra-high net worth colleagues need to be understood as a very specific type of insider threats. Specifically, because of the enormity of their wealth, which makes it possible to travel anywhere whenever they like and to own property and gain residency and/or citizenship wherever they want, have no allegiance or even affinity for the state and societies they are citizens of. The only affinity they might have only exists so long as their wealth buys them the influence to control the parts of those states and societies they care about. In this context, care about means the ability to give them political, financial, and social control in order to extract rents from the polity, society, and economy. Musk and the other ultra-high net worth individuals are the ultimate insider threats and present a clear and present danger to the United States, our allies, and our partners. They need to be dealt with accordingly while it is still possible to do so.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
It Is Important That Our Partners Remove the Barriers That Prevent Us from Weakening Russian Positions – Address by the President
17 August 2024 – 19:28
I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today there have already been several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. As always, our first and foremost attention goes to the frontline directions. Primarily, to the Donetsk region. It faces the majority of Russian assaults. I thank all our units – every soldier and commander, who are holding the front, defending our positions and destroying the occupier.
We are doing everything to provide our warriors with the necessary weapons and reinforcements. And in this regard, it is undoubtedly important for us that our partners remove the barriers that prevent us from weakening Russian positions as required by the course of the war. The long-range capabilities of our forces are the answer to all the most important, to all the most strategic issues of this war. The courage of our warriors, the resilience of our combat brigades are currently compensating for the lack of necessary decisions by our partners. And we could effectively deprive the occupier of any opportunity to advance and wreak havoc if our long-range capabilities were sufficient.
We will intensify our diplomatic work. We will insist on the need for bold steps, bold decisions. We need things that truly change the course of the war, leading it to a just peace, to a real conclusion – the kind of conclusion we need. And we need all of our partners, who can really help, to do so. This includes the United States, the United Kingdom, France and other partners.
In particular, we have seen throughout this war that the United Kingdom has shown real leadership. In weaponry, in politics, and in supporting the life of Ukrainian society. This is what has saved thousands of our people. This is what reflects the strength of the United Kingdom. But now, unfortunately, the situation has slowed down. We will discuss how to fix this. Because long-range capabilities are a matter of principle for us. And the entire world sees how effective Ukrainians – our whole nation – are when defending their independence.
Today, General Syrskyi has also reported on the continuation of our advance in the Kursk region. The operation is unfolding exactly as we expected. The bravery of Ukrainians is achieving great things. Now we are reinforcing our positions. The foothold of our presence is getting stronger. I want to thank every warrior who ensures this: all soldiers, sergeants and commanders.
I also thank every unit that replenishes our exchange fund with new Russian prisoners of war. This is important. This hastens the release of our military and civilians from Russian captivity. We remember all those we must bring home.
And it is also very important that this week there was a reboot of our negotiating group and the entire infrastructure of exchanges. The Security Service of Ukraine, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Armed Forces, and the Foreign Intelligence Service have joined on an equal footing with the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. The presence of the Ombudsman’s infrastructure in the regions of Ukraine will also be strengthened to ensure transparent and quality work with the families of prisoners and with civil society activists who are willing to help. And this is our absolute priority – one of the ten points of the Peace Formula. And we will definitely do everything to ensure that Ukraine achieves a just peace. All our people, all our communities.
I thank everyone who is helping! Glory to Ukraine!
At sea: Neptune, Sea Baby, MAGURA V5.
On land: Bohdana, Stugna, Corsar.
In the air: Bober, Morok, Liutyi.
These are our Ukrainian developments, that clear the Black Sea, add strength to our country and destroy Russia’s potential.Glory to Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/uZiIDEvR9r
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 17, 2024
Today’s report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
First, regarding the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions. Dozens of Russian assaults on our positions were recorded in the last 24 hours. However, our warriors and units are doing everything possible to destroy the occupiers and repel…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 17, 2024
Today’s report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi.
First, regarding the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions. Dozens of Russian assaults on our positions were recorded in the last 24 hours. However, our warriors and units are doing everything possible to destroy the occupiers and repel their assaults. The situation remains under control.
Second, the operation in the Kursk region. By this morning, our country’s “exchange fund” has been replenished. I thank all our soldiers and commanders who are capturing Russian military personnel, thereby advancing the release of our warriors and civilians held by Russia. General Syrskyi also reported on the strengthening of our Forces’ positions in the Kursk region and the expansion of the stabilized area.
Third, ensuring weaponry and decisive actions. We are working on new support packages for our country from our partners. We are identifying priority areas. The key focus is on limiting Russia’s offensive potential and ensuring our long-range capabilities. We are preparing the respective instructions for Ukrainian diplomats.
Germany:
Btw, this isn’t about advocating unlimited spending. In a world of crises, from war to energy security, prioritizing inflexible rules over essential investments in the face of existential challenges is reckless. It’s about smart, targeted action when it’s most needed.
— Mathieu von Rohr (@mathieuvonrohr) August 17, 2024
Politico EU has the details:
The German government will stop new military aid to Ukraine as part of the ruling coalition’s plan to reduce spending, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Saturday.
The moratorium on new assistance is already in effect and will affect new requests for funding, not previously approved aid, according to the FAZ report, which cited non-public documents and emails as well as discussions with people familiar with the matter.
In a letter sent to the German defense ministry on Aug. 5, Finance Minister Christian Lindner said that future funding would no longer come from Germany’s federal budget but from proceeds from frozen Russian assets, according to the German newspaper.
Germany and other G7 countries in June struck a preliminary deal to use the value of some $300 billion of Russia’s sovereign assets immobilized in Western financial institutions to secure a $50 billion loan to Ukraine. But governments have yet to agree on the details of the scheme, and technical talks might drag on for months.
Berlin, which is Europe’s main supplier of military aid to Kyiv, had already signaled a change in course on Ukraine last month, when the governing coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals adopted a preliminary deal on a draft budget for 2025. The compromise seen by POLITICO detailed plans to slash future assistance to Ukraine by half to €4 billion to fulfill other spending priorities.
Speaking after the Cabinet approved the draft budget in mid-July, Lindner said Ukraine would have to rely more on funds from “European sources” as well as the frozen Russian assets. But it’s still unclear if, and when, that money will flow.
Contentions over Ukraine aid reportedly deepened the rifts in the ruling coalition in Berlin, already tattered by weeks of internal fights over a series of issues from the budget to welfare. Green leader and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said this week he plans to run for chancellor as the Greens’ candidate in the 2025 federal election, casting doubt on the survival of the governing alliance of which he is a member.
“It’s quite obvious that this coalition has major problems finding common ground,” Habeck said regarding the recent disputes. “The ideas are falling apart.”
For want of a nail!!!!
The Kursk Offensive:
https://t.co/NK1SdaQIPg pic.twitter.com/CR06dkP12A
— Mykola Bielieskov (@MBielieskov) August 17, 2024
More from Shashank Joshi’s article in The Economist:
For the first time since the second world war, Russia has been invaded. On the previous occasion the Red Army’s Ukrainian troops helped beat back the Nazi assault in Russia’s Kursk province. Now it is Ukrainians who are advancing over the same ground. Ukraine’s surprise attack, which began on August 6th, is bold and daring, and could change the narrative of the war. It is also a gamble which could go badly wrong.
Morally and legally, Ukraine has every right to take the fight into Russia. Every state is entitled to defend itself, and that right does not stop at the border. Russia is waging an unprovoked war of conquest in Ukraine, and has conducted thousands of attacks on Ukraine’s Sumy region from over the frontier in Kursk. The troops, kit and bases that enable those attacks are legitimate targets.
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has already achieved some successes. Its forces have cut through the region, occupying scores of settlements and taking hundreds of prisoners. That has had three immediate effects. One is to boost morale at home, which needed a jolt: Ukraine’s army is on the back foot in the Donbas region and its counter-offensive last year fizzled out. The second is to show international partners that Ukraine can regain the initiative. Encouragingly, America and Germany, among others, have indicated that they are comfortable with their weapons being used on Russian soil.
The third is to expose Russia’s vulnerabilities. Vladimir Putin will use the incursion to reinforce his big lie that Russia is waging a defensive war against the West. But it also adds to the evidence that Mr Putin’s carefully constructed image of strength and control is hollow. He thought he could conquer Ukraine in a few days in 2022, but two years later he still hasn’t. When his former chef led a mutinous march much of the way to Moscow last year, Russian troops stood aside. When Ukraine invaded Kursk, local civilians did not resist.
For all that, Ukraine’s gambit also carries grave risks. Ukraine surely hopes that its Kursk offensive will draw Russian forces away from Donbas, easing the pressure on Ukraine’s beleaguered troops there. But there is little sign that Russia has pulled many troops off the front line. And this cuts both ways: Ukraine has also diverted many of its best forces away from Donbas and into Kursk. Indeed, Russia has continued to advance in eastern Ukraine since August 6th; it is now less than 13km from Pokrovsk, an important crossroads.
Here’s Tatarigami’s latest assessment of the Kursk offensive:
War is a continuation of politics by other means. As the Kursk incursion continues, the military part of this operation is still being written. However, it is fair to say that, regardless of the outcome, this operation has shed light on certain political aspects. 🧵Thread:2/ The first aspect, which has largely gone unnoticed, is the evident ineffectiveness of the so-called military alliances and treaties between Russia and other countries, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which includes obligations like NATO’s Article 53/ Second, it is notable how numerous media personalities associated with pro-Russian views suddenly stopped advocating for freezing the war once the war reached the Kursk lands. Suddenly, the notion of freezing the war at the current lines no longer appears acceptable to them.4/ Such sudden silence from the so-called “peace doves” is not surprising. They have never been genuinely interested in peace but rather in Ukraine’s capitulation and the secession of Ukrainian lands to Russia. Where are these voices now, calling for the war to end in Kursk?5/ Let’s examine another pivotal aspect: Russia’s red lines. In the informational space, there are frequent statements about U.S. inconsistency with red lines, contrasted with the much more “real and substantiated” red lines drawn by Russia…6/ …the crossing of which, it is claimed, would provoke immediate and devastating retaliation. Yet, each time, Russia has been shown to either move the goalposts or obscure previous threats and red lines in a sea of informational noise, as if those statements were never made.7/ While some political pundits in Russia and the West are attempting to spin the narrative by saying that Ukraine violated agreements with the West by entering Russian territory, this can easily be fact-checked by referring to official statements from authorized representatives8/ Matthew Miller, a representative of the U.S. State Department, during the Press Briefing – on August 7th stated that Ukraine’s actions in the Kursk region do not violate restrictions on the use of American weapons supplied to Kyiv.9/ This operation has challenged the established opinion, formed after the unsuccessful 2023 counter-offensive, that a successful large-scale operation at the division or corps level was impossible due to ISR capabilities. Yet, Russia failed to identify the looming offensive10/ The operation also highlights a stark contrast: Ukraine’s surgical strikes on moving Russian columns with HIMARS versus Russia’s deliberate and methodical destruction of Ukrainian settlements with artillery, MLRS, and missile strikes.11/ Ukrainian forces have managed to take towns with minimal destruction, as demonstrated by the liberation of Kharkiv and Kherson in 2022 and the seizure of Sudzha in 2024. In contrast, Russian forces rely on the destruction of settlements, as evidenced in Mariupol and Avdiivka12/ Whether this operation results in a strategic win for Ukraine or not, it has shown that Ukraine can conduct complex, large-scale operations while maintaining higher moral ground and discipline. Perhaps it is too early to write off Ukraine, as some politicians are eager to do13/ This might be the best opportunity for the West to reassess its approach to self-imposed restrictions and increase pressure on Russia both diplomatically and militarily (through the provision of aid). It’s time to reconsider policies that are based on ineffective red lines.
With other means. The German is “mit,” which translates as with not by. It is war is politics with other means.
There is one thing about Ukraine’s offensive in Russian Kursk, in its 10th day, which is mind-boggling. Ukrainian army controls a large swath of the Russian land, about 80 small towns and villages. And yet… there is zero protests again the Ukrainian army on these territories.… pic.twitter.com/87ynAUnjxF
— Konstantin Sonin (@k_sonin) August 16, 2024
There is one thing about Ukraine’s offensive in Russian Kursk, in its 10th day, which is mind-boggling. Ukrainian army controls a large swath of the Russian land, about 80 small towns and villages. And yet… there is zero protests again the Ukrainian army on these territories. No peaceful protests, no armed resustance. Zero. Nada. When the Russian army occupied Ukrainian towns, there were always peaceful resistance and grassroots armed resistance, brutally suppressed. In Russian villages, nothing.
The same is going on all across Russia. For decades, schoolchildren learned by heart the names of civilian resistance figures in times of a foreign invasion. If there is a foreign invasion, Russians resist, volunteer for the army, etc. Here is an invasion with thousands of Ukrainian troops and hundreds of tanks on the Russian soil, and no reaction whatsoever. Zero new volunteers, zero grassroots activism in support of those affected by the war.
Remember the word “sleepwalkers”, which aptly described leaders walking their nations in the disaster of the World War? Putin and his henchmen led Russia into the criminal and disastrous war with Ukraine. They led the sleeping nation. What is unbelievable is that now, after 2.5 years of war and hundreds of thousands dead and now the war on its own soil, the Russian nation is still asleep.
Ukraine’s extraordinary incursion into Kursk has changed the narrative of the war – but is a high-risk strategy – I write for @ObserverUK https://t.co/wVoqeriZe2 @RUSI_org
— Jack Watling (@Jack_Watling) August 17, 2024
RUSI’s Jack Watling at The Observer:
The immediate impact of Ukraine’s incursion into the Russian region of Kursk that began on 6 August has been a transformation in the morale of the Ukrainian public and even more so the narrative among Ukraine’s international partners.
The slow but inexorable loss of ground in Donbas that painted a grim picture of retreat has been replaced by images of a dynamic front. While deceptive, this new narrative is important in reminding Ukraine’s international partners that outcomes in war are not inevitable.
Politically, the purpose of the operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations. If Donald Trump wins the US presidency in November, the threat of withdrawing military-technical assistance is likely to force Kyiv to negotiate. The Ukrainian government wants to make sure that if it has to enter that process, it has things that Russia wants to trade for concessions. The Ukrainian military, therefore, must take and hold a sizeable chunk of Russian land for the duration of potential negotiations.
Another important element of the offensive is that Ukraine succeeded in maintaining operational security before launching the assault. This has been a significant problem with past Ukrainian operations, and the competence in the preparation and planning demonstrates lessons being learned from last year’s offensive that will encourage partners about the prospects for future operations.
It helped that Russian military intelligence appears to have suffered once again from a chronic lack of curiosity or imagination as Ukrainian forces were withdrawn from the line in Donbas.
So far Ukrainian forces in Kursk have been tactically successful. Undertrained Russian infantry have again performed poorly when lacking command and control, and confronted by a manoeuvring opponent without fixed points of reference. Surrendering Russian platoons are a symptom of the poor cohesion that exemplified the Russian collapse in Kharkiv in 2022.
While the Kursk operation is politically significant, a parallel series of Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian airfields is more militarily advantageous. Russian aircraft have been central to both the long-range strikes on Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure, and the glide bomb attacks on frontline positions that are inflicting heavy losses on Ukraine. Damaging planes is vital in reducing pressure on Ukraine’s defences.
There is a limit to how successful Ukraine can be. It was suffering from a shortage of troops to rotate and hold the line prior to its operation in Kursk. Now it has pulled together what was available as an operational reserve and committed it to a new axis. There is a limit to how far this force can push before it overextends, meaning it will need to dig in soon if the Ukrainians are to hold the ground until negotiations. But as soon as the front stops being dynamic, the Russians will dig defences and then bring up artillery, electronic warfare complexes and fresh troops. In the short term, the operation has diverted the weight of Russian air-delivered bombs away from Donbas, but this will be temporary. Russia has enough personnel and equipment to fight both fronts. It is less clear that this is true for Ukraine.
The military risks build with time. Having committed its operational reserve, Ukraine will struggle to plug gaps in the line, and it has not yet managed to resolve the threat posed by Russian reconnaissance drones, glide bombs, artillery, electronic warfare and operational-tactical missile complexes. Collectively these capabilities are allowing Russia to continue a steady advance to Pokrovsk, Toretsk and other towns in Donbas. These towns will soon be depopulated, and defending them will be resource-intensive.
The best-case scenario for Ukraine is that its units dig in and Russia – feeling compelled to retake the ground – suffers inordinate losses in trying to push the Ukrainians back. It is also possible, however, that the stretching of Ukrainian resources will increase opportunities for the Russians to find the seams in Ukraine’s defences and make advances elsewhere. If the latter dynamic unfolds, then it is not clear that the seized terrain will carry much weight in negotiations, as Vladimir Putin will be quite willing to absorb the losses to remove the issue from talks.
More at the link.
Already the third documented captured Russian T-80BVM obr.2022 in Sudzha area, Kursk region. https://t.co/TsoVhmLOZq https://t.co/PzWAG78oyA pic.twitter.com/x9T3bgHXDz
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 17, 2024
The moment Russian Ka-52 helicopter was shot down from MANPADS in the Kursk region. By the 82nd Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/0UTngVVskb https://t.co/ms1SnrlE3X pic.twitter.com/y7mToz9cAE
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 17, 2024
And before certain shameless galaxy brains use this headline to yell “OMG SO UKRAINE DOESN’T WANT CEASEFIRE”, no — it’s extremely likely that these “secret efforts” would have to be not more than one of many attempts to raise specific questions via mediators in Qatar (like… pic.twitter.com/7jrnwkaa3E
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 17, 2024
And before certain shameless galaxy brains use this headline to yell “OMG SO UKRAINE DOESN’T WANT CEASEFIRE”, no — it’s extremely likely that these “secret efforts” would have to be not more than one of many attempts to raise specific questions via mediators in Qatar (like prisoner exchanges or deported kids) that happen on a regular basis.
And yes, it’s extremely unlikely that Russia would be interested in halting its large-scale missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for no more Ukrainian attacks on its oil depots and refineries.
Because Russia doesn’t need an “energy attacks ceasefire” as badly as Ukraine now. Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities are painful and harmful but not as closely bad as the situation with Ukraine’s national energy grid, which is critical now.
Ukraine’s non-nuclear energy generation has been nullified with Russian missiles at the national level. Down to the point that we had large-scale power outages during peak summer heat.
Ukraine’s energy transition and importing system is extremely vulnerable to new Russian bombing campaigns. And winter is coming soon.
And air defense remains in terrible deficit.
Why would Russia want to stop this now, again?
For the sake of saving some oil depots from Ukrainian drones?
This is naive af.
Russia will go on bombing Ukraine and its critical infrastructure, including energy, heating, healthcare, etc, BECAUSE IT CAN.
Russia will go on trying to eliminate Ukraine in its total war BECAUSE IT CAN.
And the only way to stop Russia is to MAKE IT STOP.
EFFECTIVELY DISABLE ITS ABILITY TO FIGHT THE WAR IN UKRAINE.
Neither “secret efforts,” “just don’t fight back and hope Russia will show mercy,” nor “don’t provoke Putin” will help here.
#Kherson On August 16, Russia attacked
🔴21 villages, the city of Kherson
🔴damaged critical infrastructure, educational institutions
🔴 1 high-rise, 22 private houses
🔴a gas pipeline, private cars,a rescue vehicle
💔6 injured, including 1 child🎥 Fire after a drone attack pic.twitter.com/ixGE0VSGxa
— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) August 17, 2024
Pokrovsk:
A successful battlefield evacuation case by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized near Pokrovsk, with some nice cooperation between artillery and an M2 Bradley fighting Russians off in the wood line to rescue Ukrainian troops. pic.twitter.com/gwou36tH8y
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 17, 2024
Updated map showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front and east of Vuhledar.https://t.co/9bidWM3ak3https://t.co/clpQplovF8 https://t.co/Ffd7ILUGUa pic.twitter.com/tMpNAgSYdE
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 17, 2024
Myrnohrad:
Another photo after the bombing of a residential building in Myrnograd.
📷 by Anton Shevelov pic.twitter.com/ZPCIm6MWE8— Stanislav Aseyev (@AseyevStanislav) August 17, 2024
Russia dropped a guided aerial bomb on Myrnohrad, Donetsk region. An unfinished 9 story residential building and a supermarket nearby were hit. At least three people injured, there might be more people under the debris.
Myrnohrad literally means “peaceful city” in Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/HXXzLEOQkP
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 17, 2024
Kharkiv Oblast:
Not sure what gets me more here: the lady selling garden flowers by phone light, the dad getting a bouquet for his little girl, or her wishing them a quiet night—no Russian missiles. pic.twitter.com/MxjOsBVlEy
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 17, 2024
The day in Kharkiv ends with air raid alert.
We had 8 of them today, combined they lasted over 8 hours, with the last one still ongoing. pic.twitter.com/lMqLMvWPXb— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 17, 2024
Dawn brought tragedy to Kharkiv Oblast: a 49-year-old woman lost her life to russian shelling. Sumy rocked by an Iskander missile, two civilians injured. Kramatorsk’s homes shattered, rescuers saved a man from the rubble. Myrnohrad mourns one dead, four wounded. Each strike… pic.twitter.com/cxKoxNWy7n
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 17, 2024
Dawn brought tragedy to Kharkiv Oblast: a 49-year-old woman lost her life to russian shelling. Sumy rocked by an Iskander missile, two civilians injured. Kramatorsk’s homes shattered, rescuers saved a man from the rubble. Myrnohrad mourns one dead, four wounded. Each strike deepens the scar on Ukraine’s soul.
#RussiaisATerroristState
Sumy Oblast:
Russian strike on Sumy, Ukraine. By preliminary information, it was an Iskander missile. It hit civilian infrastructure. Two people are injured, civilian vehicles are burning, building and shop facades damaged.
Imagine if the missile hit the residential buildings…
📹: SESU pic.twitter.com/y26Kyn8L19
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 17, 2024
Earlier today, russia struck a parking lot in Sumy. pic.twitter.com/M12ttpnnra
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 17, 2024
The aftermath of a Russian strike on Sumy this morning.
People were sleeping peacefully when Russia decided to “liberate” them.
📹: Radio Svoboda https://t.co/tSdTRChF40 pic.twitter.com/Hlqdv9YIBC
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 17, 2024
More on one of the Russian illegals traded back to Russia in the recent prisoner exchange.
Strange as it seems, I find it plausible that a valuable Russian illegal in Poland, and with plans to enter Ukraine, might have been tasked in such a way that meant he’d have had a better understanding that invasion was likely than many very senior Russian gov’t officials. https://t.co/kHRFMMmyyJ
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 17, 2024
El Ipendiente has the details: (machine translated from the Spanish)
The life of Pablo González or Pavel Rubtsov took a 180 degree turn in the early morning hours of February 28, 2022 when he was detained in Przemyśl, a dozen kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Spanish-Russian citizen, who collaborated as a journalist freelance for various Spanish media, he intended to cover the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which had started four days earlier. However, the Interior Intelligence Services (ABW), alerted by the Ukrainian Intelligence that had intercepted him on February 6, They suspected his activities and arrested him in the company of a Polish journalist with whom he had a romantic relationship. The charges against him were espionage and he was kept in prison. She was released on charges, as advanced by VSquare.
Several foreign journalists based in Warsaw have placed him here since 2019 and always in the company of a Polish journalist, who VSquare called Natalia K. because it threatens with legal actions whoever reveals his identity. The Polish Prosecutor’s Office has revealed her name, Magdalena, and the initial of her last name, Ch. There are charges against her. He is the one who introduced him to colleagues in the profession, local politicians and activists. And he was the one who paid for Pablo González’s legal assistance in the first months. “He swallowed my legend,” he wrote in one of his reports, according to Agentsvo. According to sources close to the journalist, he did not know that he was still married.
Together they covered the migration crisis of late 2021, when Belarus was trying to destabilize by favoring the arrival of Syrian and Afghan migrants to Poland. Back then, González confessed to the reporter at a dinner of The world Alberto Rojas, as it counts in a conversation Chronicles of the Russian steppe, that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine and that that Belarus operation was only a smokescreen. However, González maintained the opposite on his social networks.
Much, much more at the link.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here is some adjacent material.
These puppies, named Fida and Kin, were rescued by the soldier of the International Legion, Tony, in a completely destroyed house on the most shelled street in the frontline Kharkiv region.
“All the houses around were destroyed, and on a neighboring street, a column of smoke… pic.twitter.com/TSaFjgVqm4
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 17, 2024
These puppies, named Fida and Kin, were rescued by the soldier of the International Legion, Tony, in a completely destroyed house on the most shelled street in the frontline Kharkiv region.
“All the houses around were destroyed, and on a neighboring street, a column of smoke from fresh Russian shelling was seen. The little ones miraculously survived…”
📹: animal.rescue.kharkiv/Instagram
Open thread!
Mallard Filmore
Hi Adam, yesterday you asked for links. Everything I know comes from YouTube.
FSB hunt for bloggers. The FSB is upset that pro Ukrainian bloggers are raising so much money from donations.
Operator Starsky has the best info.
Jake Broe(did not find)https://youtu.be/e5SOt9I221M?t=6064 (The Enforcer)
https://youtu.be/5cBVXrGTZhs (Combat Veteran Reacts)
“KGB: Let’s Assassinate Pro-Ukraine “MilBloggers” (Me)”
https://youtu.be/Nhfl9DUbttA?t=1070 (Operator Starsky)
https://youtu.be/Nhfl9DUbttA?t=731 (Russian journalist wants to kill CNN reporters in Sudzha)
“FSB Hunting Ukrainian Bloggers? | russian Invasion of Ukraine: Day 905”
Text for the YouTube post: “According to Serhii Sternenko and several other sources, chief of the russian FSB Aleksander Bortnikov announced a hunt on the Ukrainian bloggers fundraising for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”
(not related but Tamara might like these geese)
https://youtu.be/9xhKJY5uCGY?t=1048 (Artur Rehi)
dirt_first
Thank you for all your work Dr. Silverman.
Gin & Tonic
Note how Ukrainian armed forces have taken territory in Kursk without destroying civilian residential buildings. Quite a contrast.
Nukular Biskits
Musk’s retention of a security clearance is, IMHO, a national security failure.
If I were to pull the shit that he does, I would have been unemployed long ago.
Adam L Silverman
@Mallard Filmore: Thanks. If one night there is not an update, you’ll know what has happened.
Adam L Silverman
@dirt_first: You’re most welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: Yep.
KatKapCC
@Gin & Tonic: It’s almost as though one side actually cares about human life and the other does not…
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Jay
@KatKapCC:
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1824867899468591115#m
Video attached.
Leto
We have a video of that CyberTruck in action.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/GlasnostGone/status/1824953827369562615#m
wjca
Well, I suppose being in prison could be considered being unemployed….
Prison being likely, if any of us behaved like this. Merely losing our security clearances would be the least of it.
wjca
Musk could have afforded, and doubtless has the connections to purchase, a few actual tanks. Good thing the Cybertruck piece of junk is the apple of his eye.
West of the Rockies
@wjca:
Musk is a Cybercuck.
That was the first and last time I will use the RWNJ four-letter insult.
Oh, in the WP comments section of some story I read, someone wrote, “J.D. Vance is the Fyre Festival of Sarah Palins.”
Love that!
Andrya
@Nukular Biskits: When I first applied for a security clearance (summer 1975) the Facility Security Officer (FSO) had conniptions over the fact that (in my application) I had admitted to smoking pot twice (!!) around December 1969- Jan 1970. The FSO told me I was a disgrace to the United States and that I should be in jail, not working in aerospace.
Unfortunately, he is now deceased, so I can’t ask him about Musk. I would so have enjoyed doing so!
Gloria DryGarden
@wjca: i don’t understand how the Donald ever got a security clearance. Or how he isn’t being prosecuted for violating the demands of his implied clearance.
Chet Murthy
@Gloria DryGarden: As I remember it:
Ah well.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
WTAF is Germany thinking? Just when I think my disgust with so-called realpolitik can’t get any worse, shite like this happens. The Stupid indeed burns.
Then there’s the whole thing with Musk Melon. Holy Hell, between his “libertarian” blatherings , the festering StarLink problem, which has been boiling along in the background for months now, his drug 💉 addiction & now a gift to a sanctioned war criminal & mass murderer, WTF is he doing walking around freely, let alone with an American security clearance? Garland is beyond useless; this is criminal negligence!
I am proud that Canada has given free reign to Ukraine to use donated weapons however it wants. Unfortunately, we are a very minor cog in the military aid machine. It’s past time the big guns got with the effing programme!
Several analysts have suggested that the Kursk operation is meant as a distraction for a full blown attack on Crimea. IDK obviously, so I would be happy to hear other opinions.
Thank you to both Water Girl & Adam. I can finally read these updates without difficulty. I do wish Adam would not continue to confine his commentary to just these updates, but I of course, respect his decision to do so. Slava Ukraini!🌻
Jay
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
The German thing, is not the German thing you think it is.
All they are doing is ensuring that seized ruZZian money get’s spent frist.
Post Putin, when ruZZia tries to claim the money back, so sad, already been spent, sucks to be you.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
wjca
I persist in thinking that we will see something not unlike what we have seen with current incursion.
We had restricted Ukraine from using our weapons (e.g. tanks) inside Russia. But when Ukraine up and did so anyway, all we did was mouth platitudes about Ukrainians making their own decisions.
I suspect that, if Ukraine decided to just cut loose against, for example, all those Russian airbases, there would be the same kind of mealy-mouthed statements. But no actual pushback at all. I just hope that the Ukranians were using this, in part, as a test to guage our reaction to them ignoring the restrictions. Now it becomes a matter of picking the best time to do maximum damage.
Nothing resembling information here. Nor expertise, obviously. But even if Ukraine wasn’t using this to guage US reaction, they have to be considering their options in the light of new information.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Jay: Which is great & all, but they still haven’t figured out how exactly they’re going to do that, & it’s going to lead to yet more monumental foot dragging.
Chris T.
I’m not so sure. Doesn’t giving the guy a Cybertruck count as committing an act of warfare against Kadyrov?
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I am the only person who has anything to so with these Ukraine war posts. There is no one else to thank for them with the exception of the night my power was out and TaMara put up a minimalist post for me.
dimmsdale
@Adam L Silverman: well, as long as you’re up & around at the crack of dawn, THANK YOU. Appreciate your reporting out the truth about Baby Elon, too.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Adam L Silverman: I was having trouble reading the site. I usually read BJ on my Fire tablet using the built in Silk browser. Suddenly, earlier this week, I couldn’t read the site for more than a couple of minutes before the browser crashed. I don’t know why since the other sites I read weren’t having the same problem, but every time I accessed BJ the browser would crash. So I finally reached out via X/Twitter to the Blog Father & a couple of front pagers, to ask them to tell Water Girl about the problem & get her to fix it. Since I couldn’t reach her through BJ proper. They did, she did, & I can now read your updates again. I actually missed TaMara’s update because of the browser crashing. So that’s why I thanked Water Girl as well as you. I don’t know what she did, but I’m very glad she did it!😁
Adam L Silverman
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I’m tracking.