Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

The willow is too close to the house.

Russia bombs Ukraine’s maternity hospitals; Republicans in the House can’t sort out supporting Ukraine.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Battle won, war still ongoing.

If West Virginia and San Francisco had a love child.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

The problem people have with Biden’s age is the color of the VPs skin.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 907: More on the Kursk Offensive

War for Ukraine Day 907: More on the Kursk Offensive

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing great. Amazingly we had low humidity today, so we went for her first walk since she was diagnosed. She did very well. Her next treatment, which is the last one of round three, is tomorrow. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

There Are No Vacations in War; Timely Logistics for the Announced Aid Packages Is Needed – Address by the President

18 August 2024 – 21:49

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Here is a brief update on today.

The front lines – first and foremost, Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

In just one day, there have been dozens of attacks, but our units, our brigades, are doing everything to hold the positions. I thank everyone who is making this possible.

Today, we achieved good and much-needed results in destroying Russian equipment near Toretsk. And all this is more than just defense for Ukraine; it is now our primary task in defensive operations overall: to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions. This includes creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory – our operation in the Kursk region.

Everything that inflicts losses on the Russian army, Russian state, their military-industrial complex, and their economy helps prevent the war from expanding and brings us closer to a just end to this aggression – a just peace for Ukraine.

I am grateful to everyone fighting for our state, everyone helping in defense, and everyone working for Ukraine so that we can achieve our goals as quickly as possible.

Today, I especially want to recognize our 100th separate mechanized brigade in the Toretsk direction. Thank you, warriors! Thank you for your strength. The 47th and 110th separate mechanized brigades – the Pokrovsk direction – your resilience, warriors, matters for all of Ukraine. Also, the Kurakhove direction – our paratroopers of the 79th brigade – thank you! The Lyman direction – the warriors of the 66th and 67th separate mechanized brigades. The Kharkiv region – the 42nd separate mechanized brigade – thank you! The Prydniprovsky direction – our marines of the 35th brigade – well done!

I just received a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the situation in the east of Ukraine, the operation in the Kursk region, the “exchange fund,” and the provision of our brigades – our reserves – with ammunition and weapons. Our guys are doing great on all fronts. However, there is a need for faster delivery of supplies from our partners. We strongly ask for this. There are no vacations in war. Decisions are needed, as is timely logistics for the announced aid packages. I especially address this to the United States, the United Kingdom, and France.

One more thing. Important weeks of diplomatic work with various partners lie ahead. Europe, America, the Global South. We have already expanded, and will continue to expand, the circle of those who support a just end to this war. And it is crucial for Ukraine to enter this autumn even stronger than we were before.

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

The Kursk offensive:

From The Wall Street Journal: (emphasis mine)

PYSARIVKA, Ukraine—Six days after Ukrainian forces swept through the Russian border town of Sudzha in a lightning advance, a Ukrainian platoon carrying out a mopping-up operation stumbled upon a dozen Russian soldiers hiding in a butter factory.

The platoon leader, who goes by the call sign Yanyk, said his demand for the Russians to surrender was met by salvos of automatic-rifle fire. “So we eliminated them,” he said.

The speed and scale of this month’s Ukrainian advance—the first time a foreign military force has occupied Russian soil since World War II—left pockets of surprised and disoriented Russian soldiers trapped behind enemy lines.

In all, Ukraine has taken 2,000 prisoners, according to a Ukrainian official, and seized about the same amount of territory that Russia, in grinding, high-casualty offensives, has taken from Ukraine since the start of the year.

Ukraine’s opportunistic assault has energized a nation battered by 2 1/2 years of war. It has also sent a message to Kyiv’s backers that the nation is still in the fight and can successfully mount complex and innovative offensive operations.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainian thrust is an extraordinary reversal just as the weight of Russia’s massive war machine was beginning to wear down Ukraine’s defenses along the country’s eastern front.

Putin has vowed to drive Ukrainian troops out, but his forces have yet to mount a coherent counterattack and have had to pull units from Ukraine to respond. To dislodge the Ukrainians, Russia will likely have to send even more troops and pulverize its own towns and villages with artillery barrages, as it has done across a swath of Ukraine.

The challenge for Ukraine is how to capitalize on its early successes. Ukraine has committed thousands of troops. Sending in more could divert resources desperately needed to hold the Russians back on the main front line in eastern Ukraine. Russia is still advancing there against Ukrainian forces short on manpower and equipment.

To take full advantage, Ukraine would need a level of backing that the U.S. and some of its allies until now haven’t been willing to provide.

The Biden administration, which has said it didn’t know about the Ukrainian attack before it was launched, has barred Ukraine from using U.S.-provided longer-range missiles called ATACMS to strike Russian territory.

Washington isn’t sharing intelligence with Ukraine on targets inside Russia, said a senior U.S. official, who added that the Biden administration doesn’t want to be seen as enabling an attack into Russian territory.

The Ukrainians have used U.S.-supplied Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles inside Russia, taking advantage of the expanded latitude that the White House granted Ukraine to respond to Russia’s Kharkiv offensive in May.

This account of the Kursk incursion is drawn from interviews with dozens of Ukrainian soldiers involved, U.S. and allied officials and a person familiar with the operation, as well as videos verified by The Wall Street Journal and reports by Russian military bloggers.

Ukraine is trying to cut off more Russian towns and make it difficult for Russian reinforcements to reach the front line by striking rail hubs and bridges. A bridge in the Glushkovo district, west of Sudzha, was destroyed Friday in a Ukrainian missile strike. Russia, meanwhile, said it had taken out two Himars systems in the Sumy region.

Nine days into the incursion, Ukraine appeared to have lost dozens of armored vehicles, according to counts by analysts who verify videos posted online. The human losses are unclear, but a spotter in the 44th Brigade crew said they were much lower than in last year’s counteroffensive, which he took part in.
Western military estimates suggest Ukraine has committed as many as 6,000 soldiers to Kursk and has up to 4,000 additional troops in support roles in the Sumy region.

To avoid weakening the front line, a substantial number of the troops came from a reserve force Ukraine had been building with Western encouragement for operations later this year and in 2025, according to the person familiar with the operation.

The Ukrainians are aware of that risk and are balancing so far, the person said.

Russia has pulled several understrength brigades from Ukraine in response, totaling up to 5,000 troops as of the middle of this past week, the person said. One brigade was from the Donetsk region, the focus of Russia’s current offensives, but others were from less essential areas.

Still, Russia might have to pull more troops out of Ukraine if it wants to take the territory back, which would require a larger force than the Ukrainians and would probably need to number more than 20,000 properly trained personnel, the person said.

In Moscow, Putin has held televised meetings with top defense and security officials in which he has ordered the Ukrainians expelled from Russia.

Satellite imagery, meanwhile, shows that Russia is hastily digging antitank ditches and other fortifications more than 30 miles from the border.

Much more at the link.

From The Telegraph:

Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Britain of “slowing down” its support for Ukraine as he renewed his appeal for restrictions to be lifted on Kyiv’s use of Western weapons.

The Ukrainian president is pushing Britain, France and the US to allow the use of Storm Shadow missiles, which were given to Kyiv by the UK last year, for strikes deep inside Russian territory.

On Saturday, he complained that British support for his war effort had slowed down, after Sir Keir Starmer upheld a ban, initially imposed by the Conservatives, on the missiles being used to strike Russia.

“Unfortunately, the situation has slowed down recently,” he said.

“We will discuss how to fix this because long-range capabilities are vital for us. The whole world sees how effective Ukrainians are – how our entire nation defends its independence.”

Mr Zelensky said that it was “crucial” for Ukraine’s allies to “remove barriers that hinder us from weakening Russian positions.

“Long-range capabilities are the answer to the most critical strategic questions of this war,” he added.

Ukraine has made territorial gains in its Kursk offensive – the first foreign invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War.

However, the offensive has concerned some Western allies, who believe attacking Russian territory could escalate the war and prompt a retaliation by Vladimir Putin against both Ukraine and its Nato backers.

The ability to use Storm Shadow missiles, which can strike underground targets and evade radar detection, would be a major boon for Kyiv but require authorisation from the UK, US and France to be used outside Ukraine.

At the Nato summit in Washington DC last month, Sir Keir suggested he would give consent for the missiles to be used in Russia, prompting celebration and thanks from Mr Zelensky.

However, government officials later clarified that the position had not changed, and Storm Shadows could only be used against Russian targets that had already crossed the Ukrainian border.

Defence sources told The Telegraph that the US has veto power over the missiles being used in Russia, because Washington controls a “key enabling requirement” of the weapons.

The French government also has the power to block the use of Storm Shadows, because they were developed jointly between the UK and France.

John Healey, the Defence Secretary, has described Labour’s support for Ukraine as “iron clad”.

“We should be proud that British-donated equipment, in the hands of brave Ukrainians on the front line, is helping them to defend their country and push back Putin,” he told The Sunday Express.

Sir Keir has asked his National Security Council to draw up plans for how Britain can increase its support for Ukraine, The Times reported.

But Conservative leaders urged the Government to immediately allow Kyiv to use the Storm Shadow missiles.

Sir Ben Wallace, the former Conservative defence secretary, told The Telegraph:

“Time and time again those that want to do nothing have used the ‘escalation’ excuse. They used it before the conflict, they used it when we supplied short-range anti tank missiles, they used it when we supplied tanks.

“The reality is it is the appeasers that use this language and all the while Ukrainians suffer. Storm Shadows have been making a real difference in Crimea, which Russia already believes to be sovereign Russian territory without escalation.

“The sooner Germany gifts Taurus missiles and we give permission the better.”

More at the link.

For want of a nail!!!!

The US administration reportedly says that it’s not sharing any intel on the Kursk region with Ukraine to avoid being considered supportive of the Ukrainian offensive operation inside Russia.

I have a question: Aaaaaaaand?

What exactly is going to happen if the supposed leading power of the free world is viewed as supporting Ukrainians in their military operation against a dominating aggressor that is devastating and occupying their country?

How is that going to change the moral side of the story and its practical implications?

What exactly would Russia do out of what it has not done yet over the last ten years of war on Ukraine if it suddenly gets such a smoking gun?

Would it send a crushing armored horde towards the English Channel when it beats its head against the wall for Donbas towns and villages for two and a half years and is hastily crumbling young conscripts to at least try and somewhat hold off a Ukrainian cross-border breakthrough?

Since when did the Kremlin ever need a formal reason to accuse the U.S./NATO/the UK/France/Poland/etc of being “a direct party in the war?” and yell about “nuclear escalation” — again?

In its daily war propaganda, Russia has been “at an existential war with NATO” for years, with French/Polish/American/German soldiers and generals present literally anywhere you want in large numbers, and it absolutely doesn’t need it to be true.

What exactly would Russia do out of what it has not done yet and is not doing now anyway as the US administration still tries not to hurt Putin’s feelings?

Bombing Ukraine’s critical civilian infrastructure? Mass murders? Erasing entire regions into dust? Acts of sabotage, assassinations, espionage, taking hostages, election interference, the industrial-scale bribing of fringe political movements, pundits, and pseudo-experts around the West?

I really wanna know.

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From The Economist: (emphasis mine)

The order to move crackled over the radios at dawn on August 6th. Serhiy, a private in the 80th brigade, was among the first to emerge from the cover of the forest. By the time his unit crossed into Russia, supported by constant tank fire, the border had already been largely destroyed. “Our commanders didn’t spare a single round of artillery,” he says via voice messages from inside Russia’s Kursk region. Other Ukrainian troops report crossing the border on a wave of euphoria, with lines of prisoners almost immediately heading back in the other direction.

To assess Ukraine’s shock raid and its prospects The Economist has interviewed soldiers involved and sources familiar with decision-making by General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief. A picture emerges of a daring gamble born of desperation and in great secrecy. It has boosted morale and shown that Ukraine has developed effective new tactics. But 12 days in, progress has slowed and the outlines of a new front line are emerging. It is unclear whether troops can dig in or are overcommitted at the cost of front lines elsewhere. The biggest danger is around Pokrovsk, in the Donbas inside Ukraine where Kremlin forces are gaining ground fast.

Soldiers from the 82nd brigade, the second of four involved in the opening assault, say fighting has grown increasingly intense after the initial euphoric gains. In the early exchanges there had been only one serious fight, when Russians tried to ambush them from maize fields near the first village. The Ukrainians, who somehow had a monopoly of reconnaissance drones in the sky, saw the enemy and ordered them to surrender. They didn’t. So they fired everything they had until the maize stopped rustling, and silence fell. Then the Ukrainians moved on.

A low profile, and clever tactics—such as using so-called fpv drones to provide air cover—allowed the Ukrainians to sweep through the Russian countryside. They were pursued by Russian helicopters and glide bombs, which often fell on Russian villages below, but on the ground they faced little serious resistance. The 82nd brigade pushed eastwards, in the direction of the village of Bolshoye Soldatskoye, while the 80th headed west to Malaya Loknya. Small units probed for vulnerabilities before heavier armour was committed. It was a “manoeuvre attack”, akin to the tactics used by Russia’s commander, Valery Gerasimov, says a source in Ukraine’s general staff. For the first five days, it was devastatingly effective.

The plan to invade part of Russia did not come from a happy place. In early July, General Syrsky, Ukraine’s newly appointed top commander, was under pressure. He was grappling with a less-than-ideal inheritance from his predecessor, Valery Zaluzhny, and the army’s leadership was at odds with the president over mobilisation policies, leading to significant manpower shortages. In America Congress was delaying support. Avdiivka, a stronghold north of Donetsk, was about to fall. Front lines in the Donetsk region were crumbling, most especially around the logistical hub of Pokrovsk. Rumours circulated that General Syrsky was on the verge of being dismissed, with attack dogs associated with Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s all-powerful chief of staff, even suggesting he had been “lying” to his bosses.

Amid the turmoil, the commander began his planning. “Syrsky isn’t good at political games,” says a source close to the general. “What he is good at is war.” Several scenarios were considered for an offensive push at the weakest points in the Russian line: a strike in Bryansk region in the north; a strike in Kursk region; a combination of the two; or more. The main objective was to draw troops away from the Donbas stranglehold, and to create bargaining chips for any future negotiation. General Syrsky kept his plans under wraps, sharing them only with a tight group of generals and security officials. He spoke to the president on a one-on-one basis, without his staff. The army’s intelligence did much of the reconnaissance, rather than leaving it to hur, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, which was included only at a late stage.

Western allies were also deliberately left in the dark, claims the source. “Syrsky had two previous operations undermined by the West. One was leaked to the Russians, and on another occasion, we were instructed to abort.” Limiting communication to a need-to-know basis enabled the Ukrainians to launch their attack before the Russians grasped what was happening. “They realised something was afoot but likely assumed we would need American approval for such a daring operation.” Having been presented with a fait accompli the West did not object.

General Syrsky is a pedant for detail. Yet while the first phase was planned meticulously the campaign is now developing in an ad hoc fashion. With the element of surprise lost, the Ukrainian advances have slowed. President Zelensky is still pushing for maximum progress, a source in the general staff says. But his top soldier is cautious, concentrating on expanding the flanks along the border to create more defensible lines. “Syrsky is no fool,” his confidante says. “He knows that rushing ahead risks the whole operation.” In recent days, an expanded Ukrainian contingent of 10,000-20,000 soldiers appears to be focused on establishing control on the southern bank of the Seim river to the north-west of Sudzha. On August 16th, Ukrainian missiles destroyed a bridge over the river at Glushkovo. And on August 18th Ukraine’s air force said that it had blown up a second bridge over the Seim.

General Syrsky’s great gamble has offered Ukrainians hope after a year of consistently grim news. It has also given him renewed authority. But the long-term success or otherwise of the operation will depend largely on how Russia responds. It appears to be pursuing a twin approach of responding more aggressively to the incursion while also sustaining pressure inside Ukraine along the line in the Donbas. The Kremlin’s goal will be to turn Kursk into little more than an embarrassing mosquito bite amid a bloodbath inside Ukraine.

The scene is thus set for a dramatic moment in the war: Ukraine wants to sustain its attack inside Russia and disrupt the contours of the frontline, changing the defeatist narrative about a frozen conflict to which negotiation is the only answer. Russia wants to crush the incursion and exploit the resulting depletion of Ukraine’s resources by pressing home its assault elsewhere, in Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian troops inside Russia are more vulnerable but still defiant. “The bastards have figured out how to fight and they understand our tactics,” says Private Serhiy in the 80th. “But that doesn’t mean we don’t understand their tactics—or that we won’t continue to take them down.”

A video reportedly showing Defenders of the 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion dropping a Russian flag on the ground in Kursk region of Russia has appeared online.

It is reported that another settlement has been liberated – the village of Apanasovka in the Korenevsky district.

No official confirmation yet.

Kurahove:

Sumy Oblast:

When was the last time you played in the yard like this? These kids, evacuated to dormitory in Sumy from border villages, have lived through constant Russian shelling since the war started. Now, they’re waiting to go back home, while their mothers hope for Ukrainian victory to keep their homes safe.

Izyum:

Kharkiv:

Protelarsk, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

And a new vacation video montage!

@patron__dsns

Довгоочікуваний влог з Карпат! З вас лайк, якщо чекаєте наступний випуск🌝 #песпатрон

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    69Comments

    2. 2.

      Gin & Tonic

      It is now painfully obvious that the US and its major Western European Allies do not want Ukraine to win the war.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Seeker

      @Gin & Tonic: I really do not understand why. I get that within any Western government there will be pro-russia actors that will and are essentially supporting Russia but I have a hard time believing their influence is so profound to deliver this result

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Jay

      @Seeker:

      There are certain nations where ruZZian money and ruZZian influence, along with Cold War brinkmanship has buried itself deeply into their Political and Military structures.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Anonymous At Work

      I’ve been thinking about this off/on for a bit.  How is Kursk region viewed within Russia?  You’ve indicated before the racism of Russians from western Russian and am wondering if the (seems) half-hearted response isn’t in part due to Russians going “They’re only mostly Russian there…” or something like that.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Anonymous At Work

      @Seeker: Agreed.  I think it might be more accurate to say that US/NATO want “Ukraine and only Ukraine” to win this war, rather than “we want Ukraine to be *a* winner of this war.”

      Reply
    12. 12.

      piratedan

      Adam, is there any potential movement in the US position about releasing all weaps to be used as Ukraine sees fit?  Seems that if Putin is getting hardware from China, NK and Iran and that UKR is fighting Georgians, Chechens and NK troops in addition to Russians, that its time to stop the war of attrition.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      wjca

      @Gin & Tonic: It is now painfully obvious that the US and its major Western European Allies do not want Ukraine to win the war.

      It may be more accurate to say that they (or, at least, significant parts of their nat sec establishments) are super worried about the effect of Russia losing the war.

      By now, you’d think that they would have figured out that Putin’s actual “red lines,” if any, bear no resemblance to anything he says on the subject.  But apparently adjusting to facts on the ground is proving difficult for them.  Hence the utility of Ukraine just ignoring restrictions on weapons use, and presenting a fiat accompli.

      There is, of course, the off chance that the US might have a snit and hold up critical aid.  But so far, those supposed red lines appear to be as insubstantial as Putin’s.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      BR

      Adam, what are the chances that Biden’s nat sec team send a backchannel message to Musk to not play any games / stir up any UK-type drama leading up to and after the election (with the implicit or explicit threat of losing his personal national security clearance and/or affecting SpaceX contracts)? I know you haven’t been impressed by them on this, but it seems like it’s worth it for the nat sec community to start talking about it to put pressure on Biden’s team.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Jay

      @Anonymous At Work:

      The Kursk Oblast was part of the Ukrainian SSR until 1922. Sudzha was for quite a while, the capital of the Ukrainian SSR.

      Lot’s of vids out show that Kursk residents have no issues conversing with Ukrainian Soldiers and Aid workers, in Ukrainian.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Devore

      @Jay:

      Might go a long way to explaining why Kursk. And not somewhere else in Russia for the cross border offensive.  Likely prefer to attack where the locals aren’t hostile    Interesting.  Thanks

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Jay

      @piratedan:

      that UKR is fighting Georgians, Chechens and NK troops

      No evidence so far of NORK troops,

      The Georgian Legion is fighting for Ukraine, few Georgians are fighting for ruZZia, so few that they don’t have their own units.

      There are Chechen unit’s fighting for Ukraine, the ruZZian “Chechen” units are ruZZian’s. Chechnia is not an independent nation, but instead, a semi-autonamous Oblast.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Bill Arnold

      @BR:
      I’m fairly sure (at an intuition level) that Putin/Russia has made at least implicit threats to Musk (who tends gullible and seems to be a physical coward), both to his businesses and at a personal level.
      This would be low risk for Russia if done with secure means, and high potential payoff.
      E.g. the noise about an anti-communications-constellation ASAT weapon (nuclear EMP, or whatever). Hacking threats re Tesla and/or Twitter/X. A polite and accurate description of his personal security. Etc.
      IMO, the USA security establishment should be letting Musk know that he is their friend, if and only if he is not Putin’s friend.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Jay

      @Devore:

      Looking towards ruZZia, Kursk Oblast has an impassible swamp on the right, high hills on the left with a few single lane dirt roads running through the gaps, and only 3 paved highways running forward into ruZZia, with 13 major river crossings.

      It is both tactically and strategically an area that can be held.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Bill Arnold

      @Devore:

      Might go a long way to explaining why Kursk.

      Well, as Jay says, it’s historically Ukrainian land.
      (To frame it the way Russian imperial propagandists would.)

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Jay

      @wjca:

      Not anymore. It has been a great resource for “tankers” dredging up Soviet and Nazi tanks from the battle of Kursk for restoration or parts, sunk when they tried to cross the ice. I know of at least 40 so far.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Bill Arnold

      @Jay:
      Yeah, read that earlier. Carole Cadwalladr doesn’t provide much evidence. Another possibility is that Musk is just a lost ketamine addled newbie (with 100M followers and ownership of the hosting opaque computational propaganda platform) in online right wing echo chambers and is being regularly manipulated by RW actors. Functionally there might not be much difference, granted.
      (There are other possibilities, that’s just an illustration.)

      Reply
    26. 26.

      Chet Murthy

      @Jay: I’ve read accounts by people who say that it’s not just Kursk: that the Kuban Penninsula used to be classed as part of Ukraine, too.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @piratedan: Unlike NK & Iran, the PRC is not selling lethal weapons or any military gear to Russia. It (or at least PRC companies) are selling dual use items, such as drone components, commodity semiconductors & medium tech CNCs that can be used to build lethal weapons & military gear. It is also selling civilian products that Russia is repurposing for military use (such as the DJI drones & the Desert Cross buggies). We know that Ukraine is purchasing similar items, directly or indirectly, from the PRC, such as civilian drones, drone components & commodity semiconductors.

      On balance, the qty. & effectiveness of Western material aid to Ukraine far outmatches what Iran & NK have sold to Russia (& likely at exorbitant prices at that). I am genuinely surprised (to a degree) at how little the Russian MIC is managing to produce, despite the dual use goods it is purchasing from the PRC (& TW, SK, the EU, via middlemen in the Central Asian Republics, Türkiye & the UAE).

      A part of the Biden Administration’s calculation may be that the prospect of an outright defeat on the battlefield may prompt the PRC to jump in wholesale to support Putin, leveraging its immense military industrial capacity. That would materially change the balance on the battlefield. However, instead of inhibiting aid to Ukraine, the way to dissuade the PRC from providing lethal aid to Russia is to work w/ the EU to retain leverage over the PRC: the trade, investment & civilian tech collaborations that the PRC value. Instead, other facets of the Biden Administration’s FP is undermining the EU’s leverage, through coercing EU countries (& Japan + SK) to align more closely w/ the US on its tech war against the PRC, & the incessant push on the EU to decouple as much as possible from the PRC, under the guise of “de-risking”.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Chris

      @Seeker:

      Unfortunately, the Ukrainians would be far from the first people we’d support as part of some chess game with one of their enemies. “To make a point,” or for whatever reason makes sense to the dickbags at the top of the Blob.

      We and the Shah supported Kurdish rebels against the Iraqis for years in the seventies. Then Iran and Iraq suddenly decided to put their little grudge behind them, and just like that, the CIA pulled the plug on them. That was where Kissinger’s pompous quote “foreign policy is not missionary work” came from.

      Couple decades later, we encouraged the Iraqi people to rise up against Saddam in the wake of the Gulf War. Then they did, and we sat by and twiddled our thumbs while Saddam put the revolt down.

      And so forth.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Chet Murthy

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      the PRC is not selling lethal weapons or any military gear to Russia.

      That’s simply false.  We’ve all seen the videos of the armored cars that the Chechens got from the PRC, and the many, many unarmored golf-cart-like transport that the PRC has been selling to Russia.  Nobody is deceived into thinking that somehow the PRC is unaware of this shit.  The PRC simply doesn’t want its fingerprints on the bloody knife, is all.

      Reply
    32. 32.

      Gin & Tonic

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      We know that Ukraine is purchasing similar items, directly or indirectly, from the PRC, such as civilian drones, drone components & commodity semiconductors.

      Yes, I have seen many of these with my own eyes. The “civilian” drones are quickly modified for current needs.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Mallard Filmore

      @BR:   Adam, what are the chances that Biden’s nat sec team send a backchannel message to Musk to not play any games

      Two YouTube channels I follow have mentioned that there is little direct evidence that Musk was directly involved. They think the car was delivered from a Middle East country where the car  is allowed to run.

      No links this time.  Whether this is true or false will come out eventually.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Chet Murthy: The unarmored buggies are designed for civilian use, the largest market before the current Russian invasion of Ukraine was actually farms in the US (may still is). Kadyrov showed off a few Menshi series of armored cars made in the PRC, but no idea where he got them from. Models from the series have been sold across Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, & Belarus (could be where Kadyrov got them). Outside of the civilian buggies, how many destroyed PRC gear have been found or photographed on the battledfield. How many fragments of PRC made artillery shells/mortar bombs have been found? The few found were made decades ago & probably bought 2nd hand.

      It is clear the PRC is supporting Russia by buying the latter’s hydrocarbons at steep discounts, while also selling Russia the dual use items to keep the latter’s MIC running (not surprising given that the PRC’s industrial output & industrial value added is nearly that of the US & the EU combined). However, there is a wide gulf between the level of support the PRC is currently providing Russia & the level of support it could be providing. A great deal of Ukraine’s FP vis-à-vis the PRC is to at least keep it that way. A high priority of the US’ & the EU’s Fps vis-à-vis the PRC is the same, although the US’ strategy is almost exclusively via threats, meanwhile the escalating tech war & supply chain “de-risking” campaign being waged in parallel is undermining the leverage that makes the threats credible.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Chet Murthy

      @YY_Sima Qian: look, you can believe whatever you want.  But I’ll just note that none of us here are deceived by Elon Musk either: we see the credible reports of Starlink units being used by Russian troops.  We saw the very credible reports of musk shutting down Ukrainian drones using Starlink.  It doesn’t really matterthat somehow this is supposed to be legal: Nobody gives a damn.  He’s a traitorAnd we all know it.  And in that same way China is our enemy and we all know it.

      So go ahead believe what you want, it doesn’t change a damn thing.

      Reply
    38. 38.

      Jay

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      The Tigr is made in ruZZia, beloruZZia and China, so with out a VIN or Manufacturers plate, the Chechen “Tigr’s” could come from anywhere.

      My guess is ruZZia, as the ruZZian’s use them in the FSB, the Roseguardia, basically all the internal security troops, which Kaderov’s Chechens are.

      Reply
    39. 39.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Jay: There was talk a few years ago that a PRC company would license produce the Tiger, but the deal was never consummated. No version of the Tiger is in PLA service or being sold overseas. The 1st gen Menshi was a near copy of the HUMVEE, & it evolved significantly into 2nd & 3rd generations. IIRC, the toys that Kadyrov showed were Menshi IIs, which were sold in qty to Belarus, the CARs & several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, but only entered limited service in the PLA before being supplanted by the Menshi III.

      Reply
    40. 40.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Chet Murthy: You can believe what you want. If you believe the PRC is the US’ enemy, vote for the Rs, who is eager to wage the cold or hot war to “defeat” this “enemy”, & is happy to reorganize the US’ politics for this titanic & “civilizational” struggle that they believe to be already here.

      I think Tim Walz, based on his extensive past experience w/ the PRC, has a nuanced understanding of the challenges, threats & opportunities that the country represents. Not sure about Harris.

      Reply
    42. 42.

      YY_Sima Qian

      BTW, Syrsky’s Soviet era training does seem to show through with the assault into the Kursk region, at least at the tactical if not operational level. Soviet doctrine emphasized meticulous planning of all conceivable scenarios, since the lower echelon commissioned officers could only be relied upon to execute an existing plan & apply training pertaining to limited scenarios, rather than exercise independent judgment. They also emphasized deception, & probed for weaknesses all along the contact line, to be exploited by heavier formations that can quickly organize attacks from the march. Unfortunately, Ukraine does not currently have the resources to launch “Deep Battles” at the operational level.

      Reply
    44. 44.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Jay: Chechen Tigrs are certainly Russian made. I think Chet Murthy was referring to a few Mengshi IIs armored vehicles that Kadyrov showed off on one occasion, which is not a licensed Tigr copy, but a significant evolution of an unlicensed HUMVEE copy. I think Kadyrov bought those 2nd hand elsewhere, from Belarus or one of the CARs. OTOH, I don’t think we have seen Mengshis in wide service w/ the Chechens or any other forces fighting for Russia.

      I have never seen any licensed Chinese copy of the Tigr offered domestically or internationally, that is why I suspect the purported deal was never consummated, like so many Sino-Russian arms deals that have been floated over the years.

      Reply
    45. 45.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Gin & Tonic: Mengshi is pinyin for “猛士“, which is Chinese for “fierce warrior”. (I misspelled it before as “Menshi”.) I think the Mengshi series is marketed internationally under the brand “Warrior”.

      Reply
    46. 46.

      wjca

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      . If you believe the PRC is the US’ implacable enemy, vote for the Rs, who is eager to wage the cold or hot war to “defeat” this “enemy”, & is happy to reorganize the US’ politics for this titanic & “civilizational” struggle that they believe to be already here.

      Fixed that.  It’s possible to believe that China, especially under Xi, is acting like an enemy, without accepting that the Republican approach would be anything but self- defeating.

      I think Tim Walz, based on his extensive past experience w/ the PRC, has a nuanced understanding of the challenges, threats & opportunities that the country represents. Not sure about Harris.

      From what I’ve read about Walz, he’s got a pretty clear, and realistic, view of China.  And a real connection to Chinese people (as differentiated from the government).

      As for Harris, my sense so far of her relationship with Walz is that she values his opinions.  Even to the point that a National Security Advisor who takes a more aggressive view is likely to need to look for other employment.  (Now if we can just get the same sanity on Ukraine/Russia.)

      Reply
    48. 48.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @wjca: I think the nuance between “enemy” & “implacable enemy” is going to be quickly lost in the real world of US politics, especially given the current zeitgeist. It will be a rapid race toward ever more extreme hawkishness. After all, who wants to be accused of “appeasing” one’s “enemies”.

      There are less politically & emotionally charged labels, such as “competitor”, that I think more accurately describe the challenge that the PRC represents.

      Reply
    50. 50.

      wjca

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      I agree that there are better terms.  But I was attempting to retain as much of your phrasing as possible.  Also, since we are talking of the motivations of potential voters, the hope is to convince even those relatively hostile to China that the Trump approach is not ideal.  And thus a vote against him is warranted.

      So much of politics involves nuanced phrasing, in order to obscure the magnitude of disagreements within a coalition.

      Reply
    51. 51.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Jay: Quite. And if, as Kherson Cat asserts, the UA controls Apanasovka, and is present in Snagost, then they are on the approach to the junction at Koronevo. Between that, and the dropping of the bridges at Glushkovo, they are well on their way to creating a well-isolated segment of the road net that they can likely control. The marshes that you spotted are key to the position as well. Plus, fall/winter mud will make all traffic roadbound in another 4-5 weeks or so, and meanwhile Russian riposte appears limited to digging entrenchments around the nuclear power plant at Kurchatov, 50 km NE of Sudzha.

      I’ll lay long odds that the UA will be colonizing that part of Kursk Oblast well into 2025.

      Reply
    52. 52.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Jay: Thanks for the link. However, the “Chinese Tiger” doesn’t actually look like the Russian Tigr, beyond the broad resemblance that all armored jeeps share. OTOH, I checked the media reports, the armored cars that Kadyrov showed off last year do appear to be the “Chinese Tiger” made by Shaanxi Baoji, though probably sold to Belarus or the CARs 1st.

      Reply
    53. 53.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Carlo Graziani: The Russian Army is capable of laying down pontoon bridges across the rivers, which are still in their rear. Of course, Ukrainian long range fires will affect their logistical efforts.

      Reply
    54. 54.

      lore

      Thank you Adam.
      I am just completely baffled and disappointed by the US policy on long range weapons. Like yeah, restricting to military targets would be reasonable but this flat denial makes no sense. And neither do their answers on why. Singh (?) was talking in circles in that interview the other day.
      The only thing I can possibly think of is a secret agreement or something- Russia doesn’t use nukes and the US doesn’t give Ukraine the long range data. But I don’t know if that makes any sense either.
      The whole “escalation management” talk situation reminds me too much of the bad old days of Democratic Congresscritters negotiating with themselves.

      Reply
    56. 56.

      Jay

      @lore:

      ruZZia has threatened to use nukes 129 times since the Soviet Union fell,

      No nukes so far, in 33 years of “red lines” being crossed.

      Reply
    57. 57.

      Subsole

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      There is also the very real risk of Chinese gear getting knocked out or captured and examined by the West.

      I cannot imagine the CCP is entirely thrilled at that prospect. May be a small part of why they are not directly supplying obvious military gear, such as tanks.

      Reply
    58. 58.

      Carlo Graziani

      @lore: @Jay: What was was speculation in 2022, and confirmed by reporting in 2023, is that Russian “restraint” on nuclear weapons use in Ukraine is a consequence of a clearly-communicated US red line. In the months prior to the invasion, when US intelligence already had acquired incontrovertible evidence that Putin was committed to war, Russian political, military and diplomatic principals were informed that Russian use of NBC weapons in Ukraine were the threshold for NATO direct intervention against Russia in the war. And, whaddaya know? The Russians were deterred. And still are.

      Much of the talk of “risk aversion” in the US Natsec establishment that is so in vogue here fails to confront where all the lines are, and how real risks are balanced. This particular balance is one that we’d all despair to see fail, and is almost certainly a factor in calculation of other risks attending the West’s decisions concerning this war. But everyone now takes it for granted. It should not be.

      Reply
    59. 59.

      Kent

      @YY_Sima Qian:A part of the Biden Administration’s calculation may be that the prospect of an outright defeat on the battlefield may prompt the PRC to jump in wholesale to support Putin, leveraging its immense military industrial capacity. That would materially change the balance on the battlefield. However, instead of inhibiting aid to Ukraine, the way to dissuade the PRC from providing lethal aid to Russia is to work w/ the EU to retain leverage over the PRC: the trade, investment & civilian tech collaborations that the PRC value.

      If the Chinese are smart (and we know they are) they will see the post-war landscape of Ukraine and central Europe to be where the real opportunities lie.  There are going to be hundreds of billions of dollars worth of reconstruction contracts within Ukraine proper once the war is over.    A neutral China will be poised to profit from them.  A China viewed as an active participant in the war against Ukraine would not be.  Likewise, there will be hundreds of billions of dollars worth of contracts across Europe. Everything from bullet trains to EVs and EV infrastructure.  Again, a China that sides too overtly with Russia will jeopardizing that future as well.  And the EU has an economy and wealth that is vastly larger than Russia.

      A weakened Russia, on the other hand, leaves the door open for increased Chinese influence in central Asia

      It is hard to see how the Chinese would see it in their best interest to side too overtly with Russia.

      Reply
    60. 60.

      lore

      @Carlo Graziani: ​

      @Carlo Graziani: ​
       
      It’s a good point sir, but the administration’s policy seems frustratingly inconsistent nevertheless. I hope we are all alive when everything is declassified so we can get a better understanding of what was really going on in DC.

      Reply
    61. 61.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Subsole: There aren’t a lot of secrets to be gleamed from armored cars, armored personnel carriers, trucks, rifle cartridges, dumb artillery shells & mortar bombs, etc. The PRC has tens of millions of non-smart 152 mm howitzer shells produced in the 90s & 00s that are now largely retired, since the switch to 155 mm NATO standard calibre is almost complete. Likewise w/ the hundreds of millions of 7.62 x 39 mm rifle/machine gun rounds, as the switch to the domestic 5.8 x 42 mm caliber was completed a decade & half ago. Likewise w/ the hundreds of recently retired DF-11 & DF-15 SRBMs, less capable than the Russian Iskanders, but probably more reliable than the NK KN-23s.

      The vast majority of the smart munitions (ground or air launched) in current PLA service are not compatible w/ Russian platforms, at least not w/o modification.

      Reply
    62. 62.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Jay: Yeah, I don’t think Putin will seriously consider nukes unless Poland goes for Kaliningrad, Finland goes for Saint Petersburg, or Ukraine is marching toward Moscow, & he is powerless to stop them conventionally. None of that are likely to happen.

      Reply
    63. 63.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Kent: I doubt Ukraine will award any reconstruction contracts to PRC entities post-war, understandably so, especially as PRC companies doing infrastructure construction are dominated by SOEs. The PRC leans pretty obviously toward Russia, seeing it as a very useful bulwark in its Great Power Competition w/ the US. Such contracts will go to EU, Turkish, Japanese & South Korean firms. However, those firms may well subcontract at least some of the work to PRC entities, & EU & Turkish firms will probably buy construction equipment from PRC suppliers.

      Ukraine will continue to sell huge amounts of grains to the PRC, & the PRC’s ongoing purchase of Ukrainian grains at market rate does help fund the Ukrainian war effort, much as it’s purchase of Russian hydrocarbons at steep discounts helps the Russia war effort.

      Right now, most of the EU is pretty allergic to state subsidized PRC companies (most of whom are state owned) winning any infrastructure tenders at the expense of EU companies, including public transportation & especially telecom infrastructure. OTOH, the majority of EU countries are quite welcoming of PRC companies (most of whom are private) building EV & battery plants.

      Reply
    64. 64.

      Subsole

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      Yeah. I suspect the Chinese are sending older stuff, much like we are. Stuff that is a known quantity, doesn’t reveal much of our capabilities – and can be safely brushed off as “just old stock that doesn’t not reflect at all on our current military might”  if worse comes worst and it ends up getting smoked.

      I also suspect this is why we aren’t seeing many T-14 Armatas or PAK-FAs or other ultra modern Russian gear. They haven’t many to lose, first off, and if they lost any after all the chest thumping about near-peer systems over the last decade or so…that would be a grave loss of face for the Kremlin.

      I suspect similar stresses are at play for every defense industry and command system. Maybe that is silly, but war has a depressing tendency to be silly.

      Reply
    68. 68.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Subsole: My point was that the PRC has not been selling the older stuff. No 152 mm howitzer shells, no 7.62 x 39 mm rifle cartridges, no DF-11/15 SRBMs. No lethal weapons or dedicated military gear. What the PRC has been selling are dual use components (such as commodity semiconductors & drone components) that can & do serve as inputs into Russian made lethal weapons & military gear, & equipment (such as medium tech CNCs) that Russia can & do use to make lethal weapons & military gear. PRC entities have also sold, directly & indirectly, civilian gear that Russia can repurpose for military use, such as DJI drones & unarmored Desert Cross buggies.

      There has been a consistent ceiling to the PRC’s support to the Russian war effort, & Ukraine & the West are working to keep it that way.

      Reply
    69. 69.

      Subsole

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      I think I understand. They are essentially selling stuff that is not military equipment on its own, but can be turned to a military use. They don’t sell the bullet, but they’ll sell you the gunpowder, as it were? I appreciate you clarifying that.

      The broader point still applies, though, no? Nothing that they have sold tips their hand or reveals much in the way of capabilities.

      I harp on this because a lot of the newer Chinese gear seems untested in a full-on war setting. The CCP must project strength. The new stuff may be able to go toe to toe with Western gear. But if it doesn’t? What then?

      To look at it from the other end, I imagine if an F 22 raptor got shot down by a J 20, we’d be seeing an awful lot of scrambling from Western defense industries.

      Then again, this may be me badly misunderstanding how China sees the world (again).

      How does China approach this? What are their concerns when it comes to arms exports? What do they look for? Is it just “anyone with the cash”? Or are there more stringent requirements?

      Reply

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