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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Tuesday Evening Open Thread: October August *No* Surprise

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: October August *No* Surprise

by Anne Laurie|  August 20, 20247:30 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

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On US peace negotiations between Israel and Gaza: “The reporting is that former President Trump is on the phone with the PM of Israel urging him not to cut a deal right now because it’s believed that would help the Harris campaign.” pic.twitter.com/IbJQXPurbO

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 20, 2024

Trump’s political forte has been to make blatant every rotten, vicious, underhanded Everybody does it Republican tactic. But his ongoing conspiracy with Netanyahu to keep each other in power and out of jail has gone beyond national embarrassment into global terrorism. The latest social-media uproar seems to have been sparked by a Some people say moment on PBS last night:

Am I the only one who caught this last night at the #DNC? pic.twitter.com/eiSghREKyw

— David Carroll 🦣 (@profcarroll) August 20, 2024

It's enough of a safe bet that Trump and other major GOP figures are actively sabotaging American diplomats seeking a hostage release that it should be treated as certainty. https://t.co/BPD9cIGwvk

— zeddy (@Zeddary) April 9, 2024

all we have to go on is Nixon committing treason in 1968, the now-proven 1980 October Surprise conspiracy, Iran-Contra, Trump openly hoping the economy crashes, and Trump's own extensive history of telling foreign leaders to do his bidding against Biden and other Democrats.

— zeddy (@Zeddary) April 9, 2024

The Logan Act was one of Jefferson’s worst ideas (which is why it’s never been used successfully in the ensuing 225 years), but there has to be some way of discouraging two-party gangsterism like this…

3 weeks ago at Mar-a-Lago. pic.twitter.com/TzwYEFGQVr

— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) August 20, 2024

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Reader Interactions

69Comments

  1. 1.

    Steve LaBonne

    August 20, 2024 at 7:37 pm

    It’s contemptible, but Bibi is going to do what he thinks is best for Bibi regardless.

  2. 2.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    August 20, 2024 at 7:42 pm

    Perhaps it’s time to consider cutting off arms/supplies, or threatening to at least in private, to Isreal if Bibi keeps this shit up, if we can’t stop Trump directly from interfering

  3. 3.

    Urza

    August 20, 2024 at 7:43 pm

    Anyone willing to let deaths continue on either side, or both, for political gain should not be allowed near power ever.

  4. 4.

    Ksmiami

    August 20, 2024 at 7:43 pm

    @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): agreed. Not one more weapon

  5. 5.

    Baud

    August 20, 2024 at 7:44 pm

    J Lo is divorcing Ben Affleck.

    I blame Harris.

  6. 6.

    Suzanne

    August 20, 2024 at 7:54 pm

    If Trump and Netanyahu had to spend eternity scrubbing one another’s toilets with their tongues, that would be better than they deserve.

  7. 7.

    West of the Rockies

    August 20, 2024 at 7:55 pm

    @Baud:

    Again?

    Honestly, I’ve always found him drab and dull (and her vain and entitled).  YMMV.

  8. 8.

    MagdaInBlack

    August 20, 2024 at 7:55 pm

    @West of the Rockies: My mileage is the same.

  9. 9.

    cain

    August 20, 2024 at 7:56 pm

    @Baud:

    I never understood why those two are back together.

    As for Bibi, I think it’s time to play very hardball. Especially if there is credible evidence that Israel is listening to Trump to not work on a deal.

    At the very least, they need to recall the U.S. ambassador from Israel. Start talking to the local Jewish groups and start building a coalition of the willing to start withdrawing arms in limited terms until Israel comes back to the negotiating table.

    Trump is not the president. Any deals done with Trump without authorization from the U.S. govt will move into “fuck around and find out”.

    Honestly, I don’t understand why we give all these people any kind of rope. We do the same goddam thing with Elon Musk.

    Do we no longer care about national security ?

  10. 10.

    Lumpy

    August 20, 2024 at 7:59 pm

    Look up the Hannibal Directive on Wikipedia. There is ample evidence that Israel likely doesn’t care about getting their hostages back.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannibal_Directive

  11. 11.

    Suzanne

    August 20, 2024 at 7:59 pm

    @cain:

    Do we no longer care about national security ?

    We care deeply about best email practices.

  12. 12.

    NotMax

    August 20, 2024 at 8:00 pm

    DJT stock continues in freefall, closing at another new all-time low today.

    “Alexa, order all the tiny violins.”

  13. 13.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    August 20, 2024 at 8:01 pm

    Will there be any way to corroborate the story?  Otherwise, our Failed Corporate Political Media won’t do much with it despite the documented (R) history of doing this shit during the end-sprint of a presidential election.

    I normally don’t wade into the morass that is online I/P “discussions” (having seen them far too close at Teh Orange) but JFC, Bibi really is shit.

  14. 14.

    Steve LaBonne

    August 20, 2024 at 8:02 pm

    @Suzanne: And we care deeply about gaslighting fact chucking.

  15. 15.

    Chief Oshkosh

    August 20, 2024 at 8:02 pm

    Serious question: Why is the Logan Act, or something functionally similar, an ipso facto bad idea?

    Setting aside whether it is Voted Off the Island of this top 10,000 blog, if the Logan Act is the law, might we get SOMEONE to at least open an investigation? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

  16. 16.

    Urza

    August 20, 2024 at 8:04 pm

    @Suzanne: *best email practices of Democrats.  No one gave a damn about all the shenanigans of the first family using private email 2017-2021.

  17. 17.

    Baud

    August 20, 2024 at 8:07 pm

    @NotMax:

    👍

  18. 18.

    Avalune

    August 20, 2024 at 8:07 pm

    Wuuuuuuuut? OKKKKKAAAYYY

  19. 19.

    Jackie

    August 20, 2024 at 8:08 pm

    I so, SO HOPE Netanyahu sees the writing on the wall, and like Putin. thinks Kamala is going to WIN and rebuffs the slimy traitorous TCFG!

  20. 20.

    jayne

    August 20, 2024 at 8:10 pm

    I know it’s very much Not The Point, but in that last picture it very much looks like Trump is not only standing on a box or something, but about to fall off it.

  21. 21.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

    August 20, 2024 at 8:14 pm

    Rudy!

    Rudy!

    Rudy!

  22. 22.

    sanjeevs

    August 20, 2024 at 8:16 pm

    The Republicans have never paid a price for doing this shit. Hilary was the only one who has publicly called them out for it whilst it was going on.

  23. 23.

    Jay

    August 20, 2024 at 8:18 pm

    @Chief Oshkosh:

    There has been little judicial discussion of the constitutionality of the Logan Act. The U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York in Waldron v. British Petroleum Co., 231 F. Supp. 72 (S.D.N.Y. 1964), mentioned in passing that the Act was likely unconstitutional due to the vagueness of the terms “defeat” and “measures,” but did not rule on the question.[2]

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan_Act

    It is basically very difficult to prove a Violation of the Logan Act, as you basically have to “usurp the Authority of the United States Government”. Basically negotiate a deal, come back, take power and “make” the deal.

  24. 24.

    SatanicPanic

    August 20, 2024 at 8:20 pm

    I’m really just tired of this issue. I’ve been watching for thirty years and it only goes one way. I don’t like Israel or what it’s doing but the writing is on the wall for Palestine. There’s no hope for a two state solution so I think we should drop that.

  25. 25.

    Ohio Mom

    August 20, 2024 at 8:22 pm

    @jayne: Life is hard, we must take our enjoyments and pleasures where and when they are.

    I scrolled past that photo, went back to look at it after reading your comment and yeah, that is very strange posture. Trump does look like he’s going to topple.

    On another note, the idea that Israel doesn’t care if the hostages perish certainly gives lie to the claim that it’s the only guaranteed safe haven for the world’s Jews. I will continue to take my chances here in southwestern Ohio.

  26. 26.

    Captain Sunshine

    August 20, 2024 at 8:27 pm

    @Urza: or using GOP.com (or something very similar) from 2001 through 2006 for off-site/non-archived e-mail and then deleting somewhere between 2 million and 22 million messages, and laughing in Henry Waxman’s race when he tried to investigate it when the Democrats retook the House in 2007.

  27. 27.

    HumboldtBlue

    August 20, 2024 at 8:28 pm

    Why Pro-Palestine activists are beefing with Kamala Harris’ Black supporters, explained
    OPINION: Do Black voters have to choose between the first Black woman president and the safety and security of Palestinians? What about the safety and security of Black people?

  28. 28.

    stinger

    August 20, 2024 at 8:28 pm

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: ​
     In the PBS clip, Judy Woodruff isn’t saying “rumor has it” or “some are speculating”, she’s saying “The reporting is”. That’s something that should be verifiable.

  29. 29.

    Matt McIrvin

    August 20, 2024 at 8:29 pm

    It worked for Nixon and it worked for Reagan.

  30. 30.

    Snarki, child of Loki

    August 20, 2024 at 8:30 pm

    Oh, come on. It’s not that difficult.

    1. Write “Logan Act” on the nose of some Hellfire missiles.
    2. Drone strike Bibi and TFG.
  31. 31.

    stinger

    August 20, 2024 at 8:30 pm

    @jayne: ​
     That second hand placed on top of the mutual handshake is a dominance move. (Doesn’t mean TCFG is actually dominant in that moment, he’s more like a pawn, but he thinks it makes him top dog.)

  32. 32.

    Old School

    August 20, 2024 at 8:30 pm

    New Hampshire is still trying to claim the first primary?

  33. 33.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    August 20, 2024 at 8:32 pm

    @Old School: I’d call it corny, but it’s probably hard to grow corn amidst all that granite.

    ETA: Low key actually hard to hate on it. They led with diversity and I caught that young woman’s Palestine pin as they, nevertheless, put forward a unanimous slate for Harris. They’re campaigning to the party for that spot.

  34. 34.

    Captain Sunshine

    August 20, 2024 at 8:32 pm

    We can add George W. Bush to the Nixon/Reagan/Trump list too. His campaign national security advisor went to Israel’s last delegation to a conference with Palestine under Clinton in June of 2000 and told them that Bush would best any deal they could get under Clinton and to take no deal offered.

    Now I feel like I need togo back and look at Romney in  2012 and see if RoboPol tried the same thing.

  35. 35.

    Central Planning

    August 20, 2024 at 8:33 pm

    @NotMax: I wonder if the stock price is a good estimate of his electability. I really want there to be a correlation.

    If When he loses again, who would want to go to his loser site?

  36. 36.

    Jeffro

    August 20, 2024 at 8:34 pm

    @Baud: Harris is the other woman?

    And that’s top of being a communist!

  37. 37.

    Jeffro

    August 20, 2024 at 8:35 pm

    @Snarki, child of Loki: have to agree

    since presidents are now “immune”, and all (especially for ‘official acts’)

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    August 20, 2024 at 8:43 pm

    @Lumpy: It eozld be more accurate to say the the Israeli government does not want this deal.

    The Israeli people a different story. Journalist Noga Tarnopolsky posted these results from a poll of Israelis taken this past weekend:

    New poll: Do you support or oppose the hostage deal under discussion in Doha?

    Favor deal:     63%

    Oppose deal:  12%

    Dunno:          25%

  39. 39.

    Matt McIrvin

    August 20, 2024 at 8:44 pm

    @SatanicPanic:

    I don’t like Israel or what it’s doing but the writing is on the wall for Palestine. There’s no hope for a two state solution so I think we should drop that.

    No, I don’t buy it. Stuff that’s wrong is wrong whether or not we can stop it with a stern objection.

    There are basically three live possibilities for an end state: (1) the two-state scenario, (2) a one-state multiethnic secular democracy in which Jews and Palestinians have equal status and rights, or (3) genocide/ethnic cleansing.

    As an American, raised on American liberal ideals of a non-ethnically-based secular nation, the one-state idea is actually the goal I’m most comfortable with, because it’s like the one I think America is supposed to be aspiring to… but it’s contrary to the whole raison d’être of Israel as the Jewish state, the place Jews can go when no one else will accept them because it’s their nation. Do I understand why Israeli Jews might be reluctant to support it? Yeah, I think I do.

    (3) may happen but it’s morally unacceptable. (1) is the goal we’re left with. I don’t think it matters how improbable it is.

  40. 40.

    Halteclere

    August 20, 2024 at 8:47 pm

    Since this is an open thread: Has anyone seen any stupid or cringe things Democrats are doing at the convention? Like something comparable to the Vance donar cups?

    I haven’t been watching any of the coverage.

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    August 20, 2024 at 8:50 pm

    I think Will Bunch may be barking up the wrong tree by draggng the Saudis into this mess. From what I’ve seen since this war began October 7, the Saudis most definitely want this deal to go through.

  42. 42.

    M31

    August 20, 2024 at 8:51 pm

    @Halteclere: you know, I don’t think so — the ‘worst’ I’ve seen are some kinda-typical boilerplate political stumpspeechy stuff (*cough Hochul *cough)​
     
    oh, and Walz’s kids giving him bunny ears when on camera

  43. 43.

    The Kropenhagen Interpretation

    August 20, 2024 at 8:52 pm

    @Halteclere: Democrats are throwing a party. I’m having fun. Sorry you aren’t.

    Maybe a tall glass of lemonade will help, it’s doing me a lot of good right now.

  44. 44.

    Leto

    August 20, 2024 at 8:54 pm

    @Halteclere: we don’t kink shame, nor life shame, so no you’re not really going to find anything comparable.

  45. 45.

    Betty Cracker

    August 20, 2024 at 8:54 pm

    Trump’s political forte has been to make blatant every rotten, vicious, underhanded Everybody does it Republican tactic. But his ongoing conspiracy with Netanyahu to keep each other in power and out of jail has gone beyond national embarrassment into global terrorism.

    Truth, Anne Laurie. Truth.

  46. 46.

    wjca

    August 20, 2024 at 8:57 pm

    @SatanicPanic: …the writing is on the wall for Palestine. There’s no hope for a two state solution so I think we should drop that.

    Walls seem to be in short supply around here just now.  Could you lay out what the writing says?

    And, absent a two state solution, what viable (i.e. non-genocidal) solution is there?

  47. 47.

    Chief Oshkosh

    August 20, 2024 at 8:57 pm

    @Jay: Thanks, Jay. I guess I’m more wondering, setting aside whether it was poorly written (hello, 2nd Amendment), is it a sound idea? Seems to me it is. Other poorly-written laws are enforced with less.

  48. 48.

    Chief Oshkosh

    August 20, 2024 at 9:00 pm

    @Snarki, child of Loki: That Logan guy is one baaaaad muthah… (channeling both MVP and I. Hayes).

  49. 49.

    Suzanne

    August 20, 2024 at 9:01 pm

    Can we get a roll call playlist? This is fun.

  50. 50.

    mrmoshpotato

    August 20, 2024 at 9:02 pm

    @Halteclere: No.  No further comments.

  51. 51.

    Suzanne

    August 20, 2024 at 9:03 pm

    @wjca: I am increasingly convinced that there is no good solution to be found in this generation. So I don’t want to give American aid.

  52. 52.

    wjca

    August 20, 2024 at 9:05 pm

    @Matt McIrvin:  (2) a one-state multiethnic secular democracy in which Jews and Palestinians have equal status and rights

    At this point, the first thing that happens with such a state is civil war. There may have been a time when it was possible.  But now? No.

    EDT That’s likely genocide as well.

  53. 53.

    Chet Murthy

    August 20, 2024 at 9:05 pm

    @Suzanne: The -only- solution goes thru cutting off aid and the American backstop unless Israel decamps from the Occupied Territories.  Give them a deadline, and if they pass it without acting, cut them off.

  54. 54.

    BR

    August 20, 2024 at 9:06 pm

    I love the musical roll call but really I love the things that make all the states different- music, food, language, landscape. What a big beautiful country we have.

    bsky.app/profile/costasamaras.bsky.social/post/3l26uma7g4c2q

  55. 55.

    TS

    August 20, 2024 at 9:06 pm

    Are they running an hour late at the minute? I get confused converting times cause it’s daytime in my world.

  56. 56.

    Geminid

    August 20, 2024 at 9:13 pm

    @wjca: A lot of Americans are exasperated by this probem and just want to throw in the towel on a Two-State resolution to this problem. But we live 5,000 miles away and have little at stake.

    The nations in the region do not have the luxury to dismiss what they believe is the most practtical solution to this problem, and they know this problem much better than you or I. That’s why the leading Arab countries plus Turkey all favor a Two-State resolution. So do EU countries as well as Japan and China.

  57. 57.

    cain

    August 20, 2024 at 9:13 pm

    Watching the DNC without talking heads is the best DNC.

  58. 58.

    cain

    August 20, 2024 at 9:15 pm

    @Geminid:

    I think the best way is when Arab nations all very specifically tell Hamas that they are not going to get any more rockets or funding. They will of course get support for their cause but no more funding terrorism.

    ETA and Iran but that might be a hard lift without negotiation

  59. 59.

    Jay

    August 20, 2024 at 9:19 pm

    @Chief Oshkosh:

    I think the only action that can be taken and might be “productive”, is to take punitive actions against the Foreign entity.

    Basically, when the caller ID comes up as “Rethug Ratfucker”, they don’t pick up the phone, or visit, or hold meetings on the subject, because the consequences of engaging are counter productive.

    Or, in a case like Ukraine, you take the meetings, give Rudy et al a GUR briefing that has them on a wild goosechase across the active combat regions of the Donbas and hope for the best.

  60. 60.

    Jay

    August 20, 2024 at 9:24 pm

    @cain:

    That won’t stop the slow motion expansion of Israel into the West Bank and the erasure of Palestinian, Christian, Druse and Beduin communities.

  61. 61.

    Halteclere

    August 20, 2024 at 9:27 pm

    @M31: the ‘worst’ I’ve seen are some kinda-typical boilerplate political stumpspeechy stuff

    That’s what I expected. Conservatives do cruel, belittling, and dickish “humor”, where making liberals cringe is the goal.

  62. 62.

    Chacal Charles Calthrop

    August 20, 2024 at 9:41 pm

    @SatanicPanic: Then the writing is on the wall for Israel as well.

    @wjca: Nations survive civil wars (aren’t most of people on this blog living in one that did?) but why does it have to be a war?  South Africa worked it out. Hong Kong & China worked it out (maybe not for the long run, but enough to stop people from being killed at the time). Why can’t Israel do the same?

  63. 63.

    Suzanne

    August 20, 2024 at 9:43 pm

    @Chet Murthy: I agree with you. And that deadline has to include leaving the settlements.

  64. 64.

    Geminid

    August 20, 2024 at 9:45 pm

    The US, Egypt and Qatar kicked off this latest round of negotiations August 8, two Thurdays ago. They issued an “invitation” to the two parties that read like an ultimatum. The mediators seem intent on ramming this ceasefire through no matter what.

    If Hamas signs on by Friday, it will be up to the Israeli government to accept or reject the deal.* If they don’t, I think Biden’s next step will be to get a Security Council resolution mandating the deal. I think both parties will agree before that, but I am not counting on it.

    * Israel’s negotiating team is lead by the heads of security agencies Mossad and Shin Bet, as well as an IDF general. They do not have full powers to conclude a deal, but negotiate under a mandate given by Israel’s Security Cabinet. That “political echelon” would ⁴still have the final say in a vote that could come as early as Saturday night.

  65. 65.

    Geminid

    August 20, 2024 at 9:56 pm

    @cain: I think the best way might be for the Arab countries to tell Hamas’s leaders: “Take the deal; don’t make us kill you.”

    The Saudis and Emiratis may have told Hamas that already. They are past ready for this war to end, and they never liked Hamas to begin with.

  66. 66.

    Captain C

    August 20, 2024 at 10:49 pm

    @Geminid:

    I think the best way might be for the Arab countries to tell Hamas’s leaders: “Take the deal; don’t make us kill you.”

    Perhaps Haniyeh’s assassination was part of such a persuasion campaign?

  67. 67.

    Ryan

    August 21, 2024 at 12:00 am

    Isn’t this a clear violation of the Logan Act?

  68. 68.

    jayne

    August 21, 2024 at 8:50 am

    @stinger: You’d think that a man who’s as sensitive about hand size as DT is would avoid giving the impression that he needs two hands to hold onto one average-sized mitt.  But I’m sure someone feels dominated right now.

  69. 69.

    Paul in KY

    August 21, 2024 at 9:53 am

    @SatanicPanic: Palestine’s only hope is to call their bluff and act as peacefully as they can (like ‘Finns’ one of the Likud jerks said) for 10 years at least and then hope the Israeli govt is one they can negotiate a settlement with.

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