Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

The willow is too close to the house.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Be a traveling stable for those who can’t find room at the inn.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

Let there be snark.

Not all heroes wear capes.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

Second rate reporter says what?

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Consistently wrong since 2002

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 911: A Brief Thursday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 911: A Brief Thursday Night Update

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Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing well. It’s been a very moderate reaction to this week’s treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, the girls decided to wake me up at 3:15 AM to make sure I was aware that a thunderstorm had started. As a result I am definitely fried and tonight’s update will be the basics again because I really need to go and crash.

President Zelenskyy addressed the VII International Veterans Conference earlier today. The video is below, English transcript after the jump.

It Is Right and Necessary for the State That Ukraine’s Veteran Community Be Fully Integrated Into Public Life – President’s Speech at the VII International Veterans Forum

22 August 2024 – 18:36

Dear defenders!

Dear family members of our warriors, our heroes!

Dear foreign guests!

Dear generals!

Friends of Ukraine!

It has already become a very important tradition that, on the eve of our Independence Day, we honor our veterans – our warriors, Ukrainian men and women who have done and continue to do everything to preserve our Ukrainian independence. Just as the heroic defense of Ukraine has become a fact of history, so too will the Ukrainian victory. It must ensure the preservation of our full state independence, our entire nation, and our true unity achieved during this time of Ukraine’s national solidarity for all future generations of Ukrainians.

Here, we have great hopes for Ukraine’s veteran community. All those people, who, both in military and civilian life, have proven that they care deeply about Ukraine’s existence and who truly understand the value of our state’s independence. Every nation that has undergone transformation and secured its place among the world’s true leaders has relied on certain key communities within society – communities of change. Today, in our country, veterans can become that community – every man and woman who, after defending Ukraine, wishes to become a leader of change for Ukraine. In particular, at the societal level, in public life, and in every Ukrainian community. So that the activity of veteran businesses, veteran spaces, and veteran hubs where one can receive all the necessary support, as well as the social activity of veterans not only guarantee the presence of a true, independent, and patriotic spirit in every community but also drive Ukraine’s development and confident growth – economically, socially, and culturally, which we as a nation desperately need. It is essential, because it is right and necessary for the state, for all our people, for our development that Ukraine’s veteran community be fully integrated into public life, so that those veterans who see themselves as leaders of change can truly become one of the most reliable sources of strength for Ukraine after this war.

This is the purpose for which state policy – Ukrainian veterans policy – should be organized. The core principle of this policy is respect for the defenders of Ukraine, their protection, and real support – effective, without bureaucracy, and equally with respect – genuine opportunities for further self-realization for the sake of Ukraine and Ukrainians, for their own development, for the sake of their families, their communities and our entire state. I strongly hope that this is how all the structures of our government – the ministry and the government as a whole, as well as local authorities in regions, cities and communities – will understand their tasks in veterans’ affairs.

To ensure this, today, by my decree, I have instructed the government to approve the National Strategy of Veterans Policy and the Strategy for the Formation of a System of Transition from Military Service to Civilian Life. These documents address all aspects of the interaction between the state and veterans, from the initial steps in reintegrating warriors into civilian life to the opportunities for veterans to enhance the lives of their communities, regions, and the nation. The details of our National Strategy will be presented by government officials here today, including the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, and all our ministers present at the forum. I urge you, our defenders, to be truly active and energetic so that Ukraine’s veteran community strengthens the further development of Ukraine.

And one more thing.

I have just returned from our Sumy region – from the border areas that are adjacent to the enemy, where our units are responding extremely effectively to Russia’s invasion, sending the war back to where Russia brought it to our land – we are sending it back home. This is absolutely fair. But beyond fairness, it is also highly effective. We must all understand that to drive the occupier from our land, we must create as many problems for the Russian state as possible on its own territory. And this heroic work is becoming more precise, more long-range, and more effective. Our defensive operations in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, in the south of Ukraine, our liberation of the Black Sea from the Russian fleet, our operation in the Kursk region, and our near-daily strikes on Russian military facilities – all this is part of our systemic approach to defending Ukraine and ending this war on the terms of an independent Ukraine.

I am confident that we will overcome this path, no matter how difficult it may be. I thank each and every one who, through their strength, resilience, and courage, ensure our nation’s progress toward its rightful goals. I ask you now to honor the memory of all those who gave their lives for all of us and for Ukraine’s future with a moment of silence.

We are grateful to them for Ukraine’s independence!

Thank you, all our warriors, all our veterans, all the Ukrainian people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Holland:

Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics, breaks down the metrics on Ukrainian air defense efficacy that Colonel-General Syrskyi released the other day.

For the first time, Ukraine discloses real missile interception rates, moving beyond ‘all intercepted’ claims—average success stands at 43%

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, reported that from February 24, 2022, Russian missiles and drones struck 11,879 targets in Ukraine 1/Image

Civilian targets made up 53% of successful Russian strikes, hitting 6,203 targets, while military targets numbered 5,676 2/ 

Missiles and Drones:

Total Missiles Launched: 9,590

Total Drones Launched: 13,997

Missiles Intercepted: 2,429 (25%)

Drones Intercepted: 5,972 (43%) 3/ 

Cruise Missiles (Kalibr, Kh-555/101, R-500, Iskander):

Interception Rate: 67%

These cruise missiles are more effectively intercepted, with a significant proportion launched at strategic targets 4/ 

Guided Missiles (Kh-59, Kh-35, Kh-31):

Interception Rate: 22%

Lower interception rate due to these missiles being launched at frontline or border targets with less layered air defense 5/ 

Drones (Shahed-136, Lancet):

Launched: 13,315

Intercepted: 8,836 (63%)

These drones were heavily targeted by air defense, resulting in a moderate interception success rate. 6/ 

Ballistic Missiles (Iskander, Tochka-U, KN-23):

Launched: 1,388

Interception Rate: 4.5%

Extremely low interception rate, making these missiles a significant threat, particularly to civilian infrastructure 7/ 

Anti-Aircraft Missiles Modified to Hit Ground (S-300, S-400):

Launched: 3,008

Interception Rate: 0.63%

These missiles targeted 4,293 objects, primarily civilian (3,196) but also military (1,097) 8/ 

Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles:

Launched: 362

Intercepted: 2 (0.55%)

These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory 9/ 

“Onyx” Missile:

Launched: 211

Intercepted: 12 (5.7%)

High-speed missile with a low interception rate, posing a significant risk to both civilian and military targets 10/ 

Hypersonic Weapons (Kh-47M2 “Kinzhal”):

Launched: 111

Intercepted: 28 (25%)

These hypersonic missiles mainly targeted civilian infrastructure, with a notable portion being intercepted 11/ 

“Zircon” Missile:

Launched: 6

Intercepted: 2

Struck civilian targets four times, demonstrating the challenges of intercepting truly hypersonic weapons 12X 

Source, in Ukrainian

Here’s all of Lewis’s second tweet:

I think part of my frustration is that I’ve sat in meetings where Ukrainians have directly explained that the limited effect of Russian missile strikes is less defenses and more their own heroic efforts to repair infrastructure to keep electricity, water and other services running.

This spawned a very spirited discussion:

This statistic is of questionable utility in my view. It does not specify whether interception was attempted or not, and when they started counting. Remember that Ukraine had to wait over a year to receive Western missile defense systems.

We know that Kyiv withstood several complex missile raids with high interception rates, including against ballistic missile targets. I would assume for Kyiv and surrounding areas, SRBM interception rates are significantly higher.

Generally though I absolutely agree with your point.

1. Read the article! It *does* have the date. (It’s the whole war.)

2. The data is coarse, but it tells us some interesting things. First, to get to previously reported intercept rates (~50%), one must assume Ukraine only attempts to intercept about 10% of SRBMS, which seems unlikely even accounting for the late start. Second, if limited intercept attempts are because SRBMS outnumber interceptors, that’s MY point about cost-trades. If you are losing money on the exchange at the margin, you can’t make it up the loss in volume.

I dont think you fully appreciate how large Ukraine is and how few of its air defense systems were/are realistically capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.

Even now, the vast majority of Ukraine has exactly 0 missile defense coverage.

So trying to intercept 10% seems plausible.

The Kursk counteroffensive:

Kharkiv Oblast:

Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade is advancing in Kharkiv region, regaining territories – the brigade’s official statement.

As a result of counterattacks, the brigade took control of the battalion defense area of the occupiers, enemy platoon, and company strongpoints and advanced deep into the front by almost 2 square kilometers.

“The main objective of the operation was to bring down the offensive potential of the 20th Army of Russia. At the moment, this objective has been accomplished,” said Colonel Andrii Biletskyi, the brigade commander.

It is reported that in four days, the enemy lost lost three 300 military personnel, and a significant amount of equipment and weapons were destroyed or damaged.

“The uniqueness of the operation was that we attacked the superior enemy and won. The success depended on detailed planning, non-standard solutions, and coordinated work of artillery, air defense, drones, and intelligence. But the heroes of the battlefield were tank crewmen, sappers, scouts, and, above all, assaultmen,” the brigade commander said.

“The assault actions have deflected the enemy’s blow from the direction of Makiivka and relieved tension from other critical sections of the front in the lines of neighboring brigades.

Now, the occupiers are intensifying the use of aviation, MLRS, and long-range artillery. The enemy is trying to regain lost ground. But the 3rd Assault Brigade is holding the line!”

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Editor’s note: This is a breaking news story and is being updated.

Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade launched a counterattack in Kharkiv Oblast and advanced almost 2 square kilometers deep into the front line area, the brigade said on Aug. 22.

Earlier in the day, the brigade released a video showing what it claims was the first footage of an “offensive in full swing” filmed in the eastern region.

“The main aim of the operation was to bring down the offensive potential of the 20th Army of the Russian Federation. At the moment, this task has been accomplished,” Brigade Commander Andrii Biletskyi said.

It is unclear when the attack was launched, its scale, and the area of the offensive. The brigade said that Russia lost around 300 soldiers in four days, and “a significant amount of equipment and weapons were broken or damaged.”

Ukrainian soldiers also took control of a battalion defense area of Russian troops and some Russian strongholds, according to the statement.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

“The assault operations prevented the enemy’s attack from the direction of Makiivka and relieved tension from other critical frontline areas in the neighboring brigades’ zones,” the brigade said.

The village of Makiivka in Luhansk Oblast is located some 180 kilometers (111 miles) southeast of the city of Kharkiv.

According to Biletsky, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian troops that had superiority “and won.” The ratio of forces on the battlefield was 2.5:1 in Moscow’s favor, the statement read.

“The success depended on detailed planning, non-standard solutions, coordinated work of artillery, air defenses, and intelligence,” the commander said.

After Ukraine’s reported counterattack, Russia’s forces are stepping up the use of aircraft and other weapons, attempting to regain lost ground, the brigade said.

The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade is known to have been operating around the village of Borova in Kharkiv Oblast, as it reported the thwarting of a Russian attempt to make a breakthrough in the area in early July.

While initially gaining ground in May, a Russian offensive in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast quickly bogged down, with Russian troops reportedly suffering heavy losses.

The intensity of fighting had decreased somewhat compared to other sectors, though several reports of Russia preparing new attacks have emerged since then.

Pokrovsk:

The Krasnodar Krai, Russia side of the Kerch Strait:

Russian occupied Crimea:

Russia’s Marinovka airbase appears to have gone boom.

10/10 Dostoevsky moment with a Russian guy witnessing the Marinovka air base following a Ukrainian drone assault.

“There it is flying by, fuck. Fucking flying over again, fuck. It’s all fucking fucked up! Everything. It’s fucked as fuck. They’re fucking bombing it since 2.30 am, and they still are fucking it now. It’s a serious tragedy, folks. This is serious stuff. It’s all fucking on fire. And it’s fucking smoke. It’s all fucking exploding. That’s it. The Oktyabrsky airfield is fucking fucked as fuck. That’s really something else. And all the new hangars, it’s all blown up in the air, fuck.”

Here’s some detailed reporting by tweet from Radio Free Europe‘s/Radio Liberty‘s Mark Krutov:

That’s enough for tonight.

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    26Comments

    1. 1.

      BR

      Adam, natsec question for you, to the extent you have a window into this. Earlier today I said that Gaza war protestors and the left generally may not understand the gift they are getting with Harris/Walz if elected given their personal stories that many might not know or think about. Given what I know about Harris’s Indian and Jamaican families and the kind of anti-colonial attitudes that she probably learned in her childhood, and Walz’s interest in understanding genocide and comparative democratic movements in the 1990s, they will likely come at the Middle East and other issues with a totally different view than Biden’s old guard of natsec experts.

      But that’s my guess about their perspectives. Do you have any idea if there are Dem natsec folks that Harris could or would tap that would fit this worldview?

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Gin & Tonic

      What Ponomarenko calls a “Dostoevsky moment” is a bit more varied than he translates it to. I acknowledge the difficulty in faithfully translating a stream of (largely) profanity, but there are at least four different root words in that dude’s soliloquy that Ponomarenko translates as some form of “fuck.” It’s not *inaccurate* per se, but the dude has a slightly larger vocabulary than you’d think from the tweet.

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Adam L Silverman

      @BR: There are. Most of us will not/never be considered.

      Harris has tapped Ilan Goldenberg as their Jewish outreach coordinator. Here’s his bio at CNAS. I don’t remember if I met him during the 2014 peace process while I was the Senior Advisor to the Commanding General of US Army Europe and his Cultural Advisor. From all the reporting, Goldenberg is committed to the two-state solution policy, is not a fan of Bibi’s, etc.

      The issue isn’t if he’s right on the issues. The issue isn’t that he’s 1,000 times better than anyone Trump would empower. The issue is the people that have been making the most noise for the past year don’t want a solution. The statements from the people in the Uncommitted Movement make it clear they know Harris is going to be better than Trump. And likely will be better than Biden. Unfortunately, Biden’s record for the past 10 months is weighing on her like a sea anchor and its chain. She needs to make a very public break with him. The Israelis that want to see progress are actually advocating for that in their own publications. I read a piece on this in Haaretz today. The Israelis are also astounded at how naive Biden and his team seem to be in regard to Bibi and the extremists he’s empowered and who are keeping Bibi in power/office.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      BR

      @Adam L Silverman: ​

      Thanks. Good to hear that she has better folks on her team.

      I’ve been guessing that if she wins then the most foreign policy leverage Biden will ever have will be during the transition — if he wants to use it, that is.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Adam L Silverman

      @BR: You did not read what I wrote. She has bog standard, have done multiple revolving door political appointments for Democratic administrations and then headed back to center/center left think tanks folks on her team. And like every Democrat before her since Clinton, she apparently can only find Israelis to do these jobs/assignments, which sends its own message. It’s just more of the same.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Adam L Silverman

      @BR: Biden’s senior advisor for the Middle East started as a GOP natsec lawyer in the Bush 43 administration with no background in the Middle East. He has managed to progress, for some unknown reason, upwards through the Obama, Trump, and now Biden administrations. It is his strategy that they’re pursuing to try to get a three way deal between the US, Saudi, and Israel. That strategy is delusional and always has been.

      Biden will not do anything but authorize leaks that he spoke sternly to Bibi on the phone.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Andrya

      @Adam L Silverman:   I never understood the logic of a deal between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the US- unless it’s to leave the Palestinians out in the cold.  The root of the problem is the lack of a livable way forward for the Palestinians- and the Saudis don’t care about Palestinian welfare, never have, never will.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya: I saw some reporting about it.  the reporting was that MBS was having trouble selling his own population on the deal, b/c while the lords of KSA were perfectly OK with shafting the Palestinians, the Saudi “man on the street” wasn’t.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      YY_Sima Qian

      I was shocked by the low intercept numbers released by Syrsky when I saw them yesterday. Based on the daily numbers the UAF was publishing for while, I was under the impression that the intercept rates for Kinzhals, cruise missiles, Shaheds & SRBMs have been much higher than that? Has Ukraine only been publishing figures (launches & intercepts) for those aimed at population centers & rear area infrastructure, & not including those to the front lines?

      Fortunately for Ukraine (such as it may), the weapons w/ the lowest intercept rates are either very inaccurate (KH22/32s, Tockna-Us, KN23s, & S300/400s), or Russia clearly still faces severe production constraints (Kinzhals. Iskanders).

      The comment on the TW scenario is relevant. TW benefits from a far denser & more layered IADS compared to Ukraine, & fairly advanced technologically. OTOH, TW’s military & infrastructure targets are far more concentrated (along its western coastline) & generally closer to the launch sites on the mainland. The PLA’s ballistic & cruise missile arsenal is orders of magnitude larger than Russia’s, generally more advanced technologically, & has immense industrial capacity for production w/ fully localized supply chain. The PLA can also use the even more numerous & much cheaper long range guided rockets to hit TW’s west coast, w/ immense industrial capacity to replenish the stock.

      TW does produce indigenous land attack cruise missiles converted from anti-ship cruise missiles, much as Ukraine & Russia have done. It also has an ongoing SRBM program. However, they probably still rely upon many imported components, whose supply will quickly run out once the shooting starts & the PLA cuts off TW’s supply routes. TW does has some ability to strike back against the PRC, but the PRC has far greater depth, & far more numerous targets. OTOOH, the PLA will likely have to expend a lot of long range missiles at US bases on Okinawa, Guam, other islands of the Western Pacific, & possibly the Japanese main islands & the Philippines, as well as USN surface fleets in the Western Pacific & Indian Ocean, for sustained periods of time.

      The Ukrainian data just released, if taken at face value, plus Ukraine’s ongoing success at striking targets in Russian against the Russian IADS, does throw into question just how capable modern IADSs really can be against sustained mass assault. The PRC is assessed to possess an advanced, layered & dense IADS, the most robust of any large nation & behind only Israel & possibly TW. How capable will it handle the inevitable counterstrikes from TW, & more importantly the strikes from USN/USAF?

      As for the nuclear dimension, retired CPC regime officials & PLA officers had threatened to nuke LA if the US threatens to defeat a PLA invasion of TW for at least 2 decades, though I don’t think any sitting official/officer/leader has made such public comments. On the US side, there is this disturbing CNAS thought experiment:

      Over the Brink
      Escalation Management in a Protracted War
      By:Andrew Metrick, Philip SheersandStacie Pettyjohn

      And the summary of the report in the Economist:

      If a China and America war went nuclear, who would win?
      After 45 days of conventional fighting nukes would be tempting, wargamers suggest

      While the CNAS report is ostensibly an attempt to speculate into the minds of CPC leaders & PLA commanders wrt use of theater nuclear weapons in a TW scenario, it reads more like an early, pre-arms control, Cold War era document seeking to justify further US investment into tactical nuclear weapons & move the Overton Window on their potential use from unthinkable to thinkable.

      Let’s hope all of the above remain thought exercises.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Andrya: Is there one that isn’t going to go off script and trash her, Biden, and the Democrats? And use a variety of antisemitic slurs while winking and nodding that they didn’t know that’s what they were? Since they couldn’t get assurances that none of these things wouldn’t happen, they didn’t make a space. That’s why they didn’t provide a speaking slot. Good, bad, or otherwise, the movements claiming to speak on behalf of or representing the interests of the Palestinians and the people claiming to lead them have spent the past 9 months trashing Biden, Harris, the Democratic Party, the US, Jews regardless of whether those Jews support or oppose what Israel is doing. They’re still calling her Killer Kamala.

      You’ll notice that while Senator Kelly mentioned Ukraine tonight, they didn’t have a dedicated speaker from the Ukrainian-American community advocating for Ukraine. Nor Sudanese-American. Nor Burmese/Myanmarese-American. Nor for any of the other terrible, tragic conflicts and the people who have to endure the horrors of them. It’s a nominating convention, not a foreign policy summit.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Andrya: It’s not fair. It sucks. But the reality is no one is going to touch this with a 100 foot pole at this type of event. There are too much potential for very negative consequences. Congresswoman Omar spoke and despite the fact that she’s a practicing Muslim who was a refugee from a horrific conflict, she basically didn’t touch it at all. The remarks by the US hostages parents about the need to end the conflict and stop everyone’s suffering was nice. Could they have said more? Sure. Should they have? I would like to think I would. But I’m also never going to be invited to speak at a nominating convention.

      And, frankly, even if they had a speaker from the Palestinian or Palestinian-American community and everything went well with no surprises or off script moments, it wouldn’t mollify or appease the loudest voices and the most active movements. Because those voices and movements only actually care about making a lot of noise, being purer and more holy than though, raising money, and getting attention.

      The larger problem is what it has been for almost a hundred years: no one with any real power actually cares about the Palestinians as Palestinians. As subjects to be engaged with and actual people that need real help to make their lives individually and collectively better, including the creation of their own state. Rather, the Palestinians are an object that can be used to score domestic and/or international political points.

      That is a significant part of the tragedy of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The only Arab leaders that I think ever actually cared are Kings Hussein and Abudullah II in Jordan. Rabin seemed to care. Carter cares. That’s not sufficient to solve the problem.

      Reply
    20. 20.

      Adam L Silverman

      On that note, I’m going to bed. Just briefly before I go, since I’m still getting antisemitic trolling attempts by people who have been banned for doing that in comments, I want to make some things very, very clear.

      1. I have been working on the Israeli-Palestinian issue since 1991 when I worked in the Middle East section at the Carter Presidential Center as an undergraduate at Emory.
      2. I largely do not cover what is going on here at the mothership because I only have so much time and energy and that is going to the Ukraine war updates. This does not mean the current war in Gaza or what is going on in the West Bank and East Jerusalem aren’t worthy of attention or that I don’t care. Rather, I just don’t have the time or energy. Similarly, I’ve worked on the tragedies going on in Sudan and Yemen and the Sudanese and the Yemeni problem sets for well over a decade. I don’t write about those not because I don’t care, but because I don’t have the time or energy.
      3. The Palestinians don’t just need or deserve, they both need and deserve to have their own state.
      4. The Israeli military responses to 7 OCT, as I have written here before, are out of control, unacceptable, ultimately self defeating, and make no strategic sense. In some cases they make no tactical sense either.
      5. Bibi is the worst leader in Israeli history. Given that the majority of Israelis are Jews and it is a state for Jews, he may also be the worst leader in Jewish history not counting the homicidal lunatic who led the Zealots at Masada.
      6. If Ben Gvir ever manages to come to power, he’ll make Bibi look good. Smotrich would be the same.
      7. The extremists that Bibi has empowered and formed a government with are terrible people. There understanding and practice of Judaism is wrong. They are Jews without mercy.
      8. The Palestinians deserve better leadership.
      9. In fact, the Palestinians just deserve better.

      That’s it.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Andrya

      @Adam L Silverman:   I was assuming it was possible to find a Palestinian-American who was not anti-Semitic. And of course, pre-check the speech to be sure there isn’t a whiff of anti-Semitism.   Maybe I was too optimistic.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Mallard Filmore

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      … the PLA cuts off TW’s supply routes …

      China also has its own supply route vulnerabilities.  According to Peter Zeihan (he is all over YouTube) China has to import a substantial percentage of the food, fuel, and fertilizer it needs.

      Do you have any insights into how the CCP will handle a shipping embargo/blockade if they get too feisty about TW?  I can’t see how any shipping that goes near Singapore or Indonesia will get through if the conflict goes nuclear.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Andrya: I’m not involved with any of this. It is only my impression from reading the same news you do. My take is that the risk was simply not worth the reward for them.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Mallard Filmore: Peter Zeihan is a not a credible analyst on China.

      When running as a war time economy, the PRC produces enough food & energy for domestic use (at reduced levels), that has been a consistent policy focus for decades. There are secure land supply routes from Russia & the Central Asian Republics (why do you think the PRC is loath to abandon Russia under Putin, troublesome as his recklessness often is even for PRC interests, when Great Power Competition is the overwhelming prevailing condition in Sino-US relations?), where raw materials are abundant. Domestic coal is cheap & abundant (AGW will no longer be a policy priority once the shooting starts). The PRC is not reliant upon imported oil or gas for power generation. The PRC is also largely self-sufficient in grains & fruits/vegetables, by far the largest agricultural import is soybeans to use as pig feed. Russia can serve as alternative supplier for both pork and soybeans.

      The PRC has built & is maintaining huge stockpiles of every commodity conceivable through the pandemic, in a bid to achieve supply security. The massive roll out of solar/wind/hydro/nuclear has caused coal consumption to peak, while the massive adoption of NEVs has caused oil imports to drop, as well. All the new coal fired power plans being approved & built will probably run at very low capacity factors (regulations stipulate that any coal fire power new plant needs to be able to run at 25% capacity) in normal time as the PRC works to peak carbon emissions & make progress toward carbon neutrality, but they stand ready to run at full capacity to make up for any short fall in generation or disruptions to the grids.

      Then there is the practical challenges of mounting a distant blockade of the PRC. The vast majority of the oil tankers, LNG carriers & grain transports can have their cargoes bought & sold multiple times while en route. Ships can declare Vietnam/Cambodia/Thailand/Malaysia/Indonesia as their destination, but steer toward a Chinese port once w/in the 1st Island Chain. The USN & allied navies/coast guards can’t try to do a distant blockade of the rest of the mainland & maritime SE Asia, too. Then there is the matter of tens of thousands of ships plying the seas, all w/ a maddening & opaquely labyrinthine structure of ownership, operator, registration & flag, far too many for the USN/USCG & allied forces to interdict & board. The USN can’t try to sink every ship heading toward E/SE Asia in the Indian Ocean. The SSNs are very effective in sinking ships, but not for boardings & inspections needed to maintain a blockade. Any USN surface warship manning the blockade line is not one that is trying to sink the PLAN or strike targets on the Chinese mainland.

      I think the analysis supporting a distant blockade is at least a decade out of date. In any case, TW under blockade will not outlast the PRC under blockade.

      In a high intensity war over TW, there will be tremendous disruption in international trade flows & domestic economic activities across the region. The PRC will suffer enormous economic damage even if it “wins” the war (same w/ everyone else). That prospect is a far greater deterring factor to the decision makers in Beijing. A distant blockade may not have anything more than marginal impact on top of that.

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