I like that Anne Laurie referred to the afterglow from the convention, because that is how I have felt all day. I have not felt this good since… I want to say the night in 2008 when we counted the votes and Obama had won. Should we be able to pull it off and win, and I hope to everything we do, I can not imagine how good I will feel then. But because of the fuckery of Republicans and the Court and the built-in obstacle of the electoral college, we need to have an absolute fucking blowout. Just completely bury them.
I started this post at 8 pm, fell asleep, woke up, it is now 12:30 and time for bed. So I guess this is now a late night open thread.
War for Ukraine Day 912: Ukrainian Flag Day
AJ of the Mustard Search and Rescue Team
Top 10,000, full-service 24/7 blog
Craig
I’m all for a blowout. Run up the score and stomp on heads
SpaceUnit
I attended the Obama rally in Denver 2008, just days before the election. The crowd was enormous. The energy was magical. The Harris campaign reminds me of that.
There’s plenty of time for ratfucking by the GOP, the corporate MSM, and their Russian compatriots, but for now they’re on the run. I say fuck ’em and fix bayonets. Let’s mow the bastards down.
HumboldtBlue
The 70s were a fucking riot.
HumboldtBlue
@SpaceUnit:
If there were a time machine, we could go back to that night on this blog, because it was lit!
SpaceUnit
@HumboldtBlue:
I tend to avoid crowds, but that rally was electric. One of the best experiences of my life.
Maxim
@Craig: Yeah. Overwhelming numbers. Kick all their certification plans right in the fucking teeth.
Redshift
I’m doing my first canvassing since July tomorrow. (I was away on vacation.) It should be fun. At the convention watch party at the local campaign office, they told us (if I remember correctly) that we knocked 15,000 doors in Virginia last weekend.
Carlo Graziani
I do believe that Biden would have won, had he stayed in. But he might have sunk the chances of retaining the Senate and taking the House. Harris has obviously longer coattails. Believing in a trifecta with her at the head of the ticket is less like believing in a winning lottery ticket, and more like believing in a one-card draw holding two pair. Which is an unbelievable turn. I would have mocked anyone who suggested such a thing a month ago.
Here’s where I draw my confidence from going forwards: Remember the 2022 Red Wave that we dreaded, until it nothingburgered? Democrats have outperformed expectations in every election since Dobbs. OK, now, after the past week, what are our current expectations? Imagine outperforming them.
HumboldtBlue
The enormous and overwhelming wave of love and support for Gus Walz and the family resonates everywhere, with all decent people.
Maxim
@Redshift: That’s awesome.
piratedan
I am kind of enjoying this lull before the storm of his sentencing. His internal polling is likely to be atrocious and calling into question just how effective plan B (voter suppression) is going to be. His recent rallies show that he looks like shit and as predicted, he doesn’t sound any more lucid this week than he has over the last 4 months, but anyone watching has to see the difference between him and Harris. Sure, he could gish gallop Biden while JB stuttered thru all of the lies and the Media would focus on that and not the lies, I don’t believe that will work with Harris. We still have to deal with the MSM turning over the entire fact-checking process to a bunch of internet sea-lions, but people would then have to disbelieve what they see with their own eyes and ears.
SpaceUnit
@Carlo Graziani:
I agree. Dems have been outperforming the polls for several election cycles.
Joe would have won by a narrow margin, but Kamala is going to change the game entirely. The GOP and the MSM have thoroughly fucked themselves. And I’m loving it.
Redshift
@Carlo Graziani: I was always somewhat more optimistic than most, because of Simon Rosenberg’s analysis that Biden supporters (and presumably Harris’) are people more likely to vote, and Trump’s are people less likely to vote. When combined with how pathetic a ground game they have because the Trump family has trashed the campaign and RNC organizations and stolen their money, i like the looks of supposedly “close” swing state polls.
West of the Rockies
@Carlo Graziani:
I think that’s a reasonable perspective. As G&T noted last night, 2016 looked pretty positive for HRC. But Harris looks to be in a stronger position to me than Hillary did then. And Trump isn’t a shiny new object. He’s a stale, repeating piss pot of grievances and weary insults. I think only his cultists (in diminishing numbers) find him credible and compelling.
piratedan
@West of the Rockies: and Harris doesn’t have three decades of MSM ratfucking as part of her baggage.
Rose Weiss
I realize that online isn’t necessarily rel life, but in lots of different settings online I see people identifying as former Republicans. Emphasis on former – they now support Harris. Also lots like we saw at the Convention, still claim they’re Repubs but will still vote for Harris.
Bupalos
@SpaceUnit: you guys are nuts. Joe had a chance, but it can be expressed in the single digits. Kamala has doubled and then tripled those odds, to where it’s a toss up.
nancy didn’t move heaven and earth because Biden was probably going to win, but didn’t have big enough coat tails.
SpaceUnit
@Bupalos:
You never change, do you?
Bupalos
@SpaceUnit: not like I started it. Biden was drawing dead. We didn’t do this for shits and giggles. Harris is obviously and objectively a MUCH stronger candidate and she’s maybe 55%.
TS
First time I followed the US elections was 2008, could not believe that Obama was going to win. I followed many blogs – mainly democratic but a few republican & I remember the joy on some & utter misery on the others. They really thought the polls were wrong & McCain was going to win.
What I didn’t see – on that day, was hate & revenge & any thought that the results were wrong (it may have been there but not so everyone could see it). How quickly it all degenerated & what we openly see today is such a reflection on what the republican party has become.
SpaceUnit
@Bupalos:
“We” didn’t do jack shit.
And I figure it’s only a matter of hours or days before you start shitting all over Harris. Piss off.
opiejeanne
@SpaceUnit: I’m really enjoying some pie right now. You could have some too.
Xavier
I stand by my prediction that the networks will call the election shortly after midnight of election day, and the machinations of Trump and his allies will be futile.
Sister Golden Bear
@opiejeanne: Or some of your delicious almond tart!
SpaceUnit
@opiejeanne:
I’ve never pied anyone, but damn I’m tempted.
Maxim
@piratedan: Exactly. I was actually really heartened by what someone said in an earlier thread (apologies to whomever it was, as I don’t recall), that Karl Rove had tried to sink Harris way back in 2010 when she was running for AG. That says so much both about her obvious political talent, and her toughness. Not that HRC isn’t tough; she withstood brutal smears for decades. But the GOP hasn’t been able to define Harris the way they want to, despite their best (worst) efforts.
opiejeanne
@Sister Golden Bear: Haha! Thank you, dear Sister Golden Bear Surprise. I’m good at making desserts, a little too good for my own health.
We were talking about your nym and wondered if it was generated by an app, or if it was a play on Sister Golden Hair (surprise!).
opiejeanne
@SpaceUnit: I understand, and it took me a long time to start using the pie filter, and I’ve only used it on 3 people, ever. I can toggle if I want, just to see what they’re on about but right now I’m not even looking because he’s on a tear. I have un-pied 2 of the 3 when they stopped being so annoying.
The good thing about it is that pie filter is reversible.
opiejeanne
@Maxim: Rove. Ugh. He and Bannon are two slugs in a pod.
Maxim
@opiejeanne: I’m sure Rove worshipped at Roger Stone’s feet. He loved him some dirty tricks. Bannon (to my mind) is more like Trump, a grifter who will say anything that might make him a buck.
SpaceUnit
@opiejeanne:
Yeah, but there’s a part of me that just wants to know what the trolls are up to.
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Maxim: I saw Lawrence O’Donnell make that point in the convention wrap-up show last night. Had never heard that story before.
Downpuppy
538 says Kennedy dropping out hurts Harris by 0.4 pts with women, 1.3 pts with men, and 0.2 pts overall
Post Nate Silver 538 is not off to a great start.
Baud
@Downpuppy:
How can the overall drop be less than either of the gender based drops?
Downpuppy
@Baud: I’m guessing that they used a larger set of polls for the topline model than the ones for demographics, but they really should have explained that. As it is, I’m not sure they even noticed.
SpaceUnit
Nate Silver can blow himself.
Joey Maloney
@Baud: The trans lobby strikes again!
Gloria DryGarden
@SpaceUnit: did you go to Chicago? Were you there? If so, wow
SpaceUnit
@Gloria DryGarden:
No Gloria, that huge rally was here in Denver, just days before the general election. And it was epic.
VeniceRiley
And Bobby K is making the pitch to start tracking girls bits the second they hit puberty. Creepy. And, like, Republicans don’t have enough trouble with women. They always double down.
“Sign up here for The Handmaid’s Tale!”
HumboldtBlue
August 28, 2008. Mile High Stadium.
Dangerman
Bury them.
If literal (TFG looks like shit), I’m donating a 12 pack to everyone “visiting” him.
ETA: Have a designated driver obviously.
mrmoshpotato
@Dangerman:
Excuse me. Yes. Hello. I’m assuming the designated toilet (piss, shit, vomit) is the orange shitstain’s gravestone. Yes?
Splitting Image
@opiejeanne:
The pie filter works amazingly well for something that is just a little bit of code.
The best thing about it is that it pies all of the responses to a troll as well as their own posts, so if you come in late to a thread and start reading from the bottom, everything is pied if the thread has been totally derailed.
On the other hand, if an occasional troll posts something genuinely interesting, the thread looks normal except for their one post and a couple of replies. Toggle the hidden posts to read them and Bob’s your uncle.
I forget who built the pie filter (I think it was cleek’s originally, but I don’t know if the current pie filter is based on his.), but it’s a lovely piece of work.
MagdaInBlack
@mrmoshpotato: yup.
Jay
@mrmoshpotato:
Following tradition, it will be an unmarked, unmaintained grave on a private, membership only, golf course for the tax break. Possibly with the coffin containing some top secret documents.
You will need Lidar to find it.
Betty Cracker
The LA Times reports that the numbers are in and the DNC absolutely clobbered the RNC in ratings. I figured it would since everyone is familiar with Trump’s stale act and Harris is more of an unknown among normies. Still, that metric is gonna leave a mark. The orange fart cloud is as obsessed with ratings as he is with crowd size. Ha!
Re: the pie filter, I’m glad it’s there even though I don’t use it. One of the things I miss most about Twitter was the option to mute annoying accounts. I employed it liberally!
Maxim
@Betty Cracker:
😁
JPL
Good Morning!
MagdaInBlack
@Betty Cracker: Last night someone posted that Act Blue ( i think) had taken in over $7 mil during her speech !
Also too, Good Morning !
Tony Jay
Jeffg166
Enjoy the after glow high. There’s still a lot to do. Harris is the underdog and should run as the underdog. We can save ourselves for the GQP only if every registered Democrat votes. Then we would bury them.
MagdaInBlack
@Tony Jay: Oh you. I almost fell for it til I saw who posted 😊
Still on 1st cup of coffee.
satby
Happy Saturday all! Politics Girl had a great video about the MAGA reactions to the DNC. She really knows how to make a complex argument short and clear, lots like Pete Buttigeig.
Tony Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
All the news – before it happens.
TBone
@HumboldtBlue: I have a photo of Jack Nicholson, Rick James, and Carrie Fisher together at a party. Common ingredients? 1970s and blow.
MagdaInBlack
@TBone: Ha! Good Morning.
TBone
We shouldn’t discount dirty old fat bastard’s cult people coming out to vote in droves out of sheer, petulant, dirty diapers spite. But we vastly outnumber those zombies. They see us activating. They know we are coming for them. My neighbors put up their rethug campaign signs a few weeks ago (or last week, who knows since it’s going so fast), but the one (ONE, not five like last time) for Donold is hidden in some bushes out toward the highway. I think they knew I didn’t want to look out my picture windows and see that garbage in my face ever again. It’s a courteous gesture!
Betty Cracker
@MagdaInBlack: $7M — wowzer! Heard Harris has raised about half a billion since taking over the top of the ticket, which is astonishing. That’s also got to painfully chap Trump’s flabby ass.
I’m always torn when Trump raises a bunch of money — glad that the grifter is fleecing morons and squandering their donations on the one hand and dismayed by the continuing enthusiasm for that piece of shit on the other. I’ll never understand it.
TBone
@MagdaInBlack: good morning darling!
MagdaInBlack
@Betty Cracker: I’ve watched enough of his recent appearances that I have come to the conclusion that the enthusiasm for him is waning quickly. ( i watch so you don’t have to 😉 )
And speaking of appearances, holy cow, take a look at him, if you dare, at the border “rally.” Yikes!
Betty Cracker
@TBone: An unexpected level of consideration from Trumpian oafs!
We have a MAGA dope neighbor on one side, but fortunately we can’t see his house, and no one bothers with yard signs out here in the swamp, where they’d be seen by maybe half a dozen people per day, including the mail lady.
I have a playlist I put together to blast on the car stereo when passing by the idiotic “Stop the Steal” protests in my town after the 2020 election. I might have to bust that out again for the sad MAGAs if (when!) the race is called for Harris this year.
TBone
@VeniceRiley: my lady parts can take that fucking guy by the neck and dispatch him. He’s such a lost weakling, so starved for attention. Obviously a cull.
NeenerNeener
Hmmm….I need to take a little ride down Rivermont Ave and see if that RFK 2024 yard sign I saw when I moved here in December is still on that lawn.
MagdaInBlack
And now they’ve gone and pissed off Dave Grohl, by using a Foo Fighters song to introduce rfk jr. This may not end well.
p.a
Can the Reich Wing orgs overcome tRump’s grifting GOTV funds? The fundie churches, gun/sportsmen clubs, Fox et al “they’re coming to KIILLLLL YOU!” bullshit?
TBone
@Betty Cracker: excellent!!!
🎶
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KJ3Lowk_064
Princess
@Baud: They used two different ways to calculate the effect. One looked at polls as a whole and have them 0.2%. The other looked at demographic differences and gave them the men vs women results. It makes perfect sense. The fact is, it’s not easy to figure out the effect of him dropping out and both ways are an approximation. But there’s nothing wrong with their math.
Baud
@Princess:
Well, then in theory she could gain among all voters and lose among men and women. Maybe the math works, but the logic doesn’t.
Baud
@p.a:
Of course, it’s possible.
Tony Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
The arseholes. What was it? ‘My Hero?’ or any of the much more suitable tracks?
Monkey Wrench?
The Pretender?
Long Road To Ruin?
Or just the terse and accurate Rope?
MagdaInBlack
@Tony Jay: “My Hero” of course.
https://www.billboard.com/culture/politics/foo-fighters-donald-trump-my-hero-rally-1235760416/
TBone
@Tony Jay: My Hero 🙄
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/foo-fighters-trump-my-hero-rfk-jr-rally_n_66c965cee4b0a191f3d00e3a
Suzanne
Yard signage is starting to pop up in earnest here in PGH. There’s a couple of houses on a main arterial road that I drive frequently, and they have these E N O R M O U S signs for Dave McCormick. Like, at least the size of a sheet of drywall. One house has two of these giant-ass things in their yard. Definitely seeing some Trump signage out there, but the Harris signs are popping up quickly. Including the one in my own yard.
I will note that there is a house on the next block that has the most gorgeous flowers and their yard always looks perfect. They have a new and bright American flag out there. And two Harris signs.
MagdaInBlack
@TBone: I am imagining the infinite F-bombs from Dave right now 😅
TBone
@MagdaInBlack: 😆
TBone
@Suzanne: I saw an Anti-Trump Republican campaign sign in my neighborhood! All in blue, big American flag on it 😊 and it says Vote! at the bottom.
I don’t think our Bob Casey is going anywhere but will stay right where he is! Seems like he’s always been there. He’s a PA staple.
When he mentioned diapers,
twice, three times, at the convention, I almost fell off the couch laughing 😆 he’s a sly one.Princess
@Baud: The point is, they don’t know which method is more accurate. They’re not adding them together. They’re two separate possibilities. There are probably more but those were the two they had numbers for.
Tony Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
The one about his Dad? Classy.
Truth or consequence
Say it aloud
Use that evidence
Race it around
Really, Felonius D? Really? That’s the ear worm you want rolling around the single-track neural pathways of your grunting Völksbande?
MagdaInBlack
@Tony Jay: We make a big mistake when we try to apply a logical thought process to what they do. Think of their brains as more of pinball machines….with the levers flipping randomly.
Tony Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
With a great big illuminated mouth at the top swallowing everything that reaches it while the marks are distracted by flashing lights and loud noises?
By George, I think she’s completed Level 1 of ‘conservative philosophy – a comprehensive guide’.
There is, of course, only one level.
TBone
@MagdaInBlack: that’s well said! TILTED
TBone
@Tony Jay: 😆
TBone
@TBone: Bob kept it classy though! As always, an ambassador for respect. Tonic masculinity at all times 💙
MagdaInBlack
@Tony Jay: @TBone: The bake part of wake’n bake may have set in. 😊
TBone
@MagdaInBlack: damn, I was on break today. Rethinking that move now. I have a friend visiting from home tomorrow to re-up me because the vape is way too harsh for my old windbags. It goes so well with that second cuppa…brb
MagdaInBlack
@TBone: ….thus continuing my long history of being a bad influence. ❤️
Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
At least you have influence, : )
TBone
@MagdaInBlack:
@Jay:
😆
I love this place! Takes the edge right off of too much caffeine.
MagdaInBlack
@Jay: 😂😂❤️
lowtechcyclist
@TBone:
What’s this “too much caffeine” that you speak of? ;-)
They tried to make me switch to decaf,
I said no, no no
.
Tony Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
I’m sure that before the day is out Wingnutopia’s Guild of Shameless Scheisseshovelers will have pumped out a circular narrative that goes from “Don’t Marxists say that ‘All property is theft’?” through “I guess we know who the real hypoctites are here” to land at “Bookmarked. Owned. Dry your tears, Lib-Cuck.” in record time.
And all will be placid again in the Land of the Weird.
mrmoshpotato
I’m all for that – and pissing on Dump’s grave.
MagdaInBlack
@Tony Jay: I’ll let you know as soon as I see it. I spend enough time observing the dark swamps of maga, I have no doubt they’ll brew up some such silliness.
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: 👍 your point is taken!
FelonyGovt
@West of the Rockies: One difference between 2016 and now is that in 2016, many of us Hillary supporters were reluctant to go public with our support because of continued sarcastic harassment by the Bernie folks. Support for Kamala is loud and proud now. I’m already seeing Harris-Walz, T-shirts, etc out in the wild.
Tony Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
Don’t get out of the boat. 🚤 🐊 🦑 ⚰️
topclimber
@SpaceUnit: That would only make him more self-satisfied.
mrmoshpotato
@MagdaInBlack: Woo!
Shalimar
@SpaceUnit: He’s a troll. He’s not always wrong, but he always says whatever he says in the most insulting way possible to get a response. Ignore him before another whole thread is pie.
Shalimar
@Downpuppy: I accept that Kennedy dropping out might theoretically hurt Harris more than Trump right now. I do think he would have alienated most of those potential Harris voters in the next 10 weeks and his votes had he stayed in the race would have been overwhelmingly anti-vaxxers who aren’t comfortable with Trump.
zhena gogolia
@HumboldtBlue: That was funny! Savalas was so good.
Ken
@MagdaInBlack: I just finished Adrian Tchaikovsky’s Children of Ruin. Without getting too much into spoilers, there’s an alien race whose conscious thought is all ego and high operatic emotions. Sounds a bit like your summary of the MAGA mindset.
Starfish
@Carlo Graziani: I am not confident that Biden would have won had he stayed in. Overall, the DNC was great. There were a couple of low points in what I saw, and they would have been even lower had Biden delivered them.
The survivor talking about how she got Backpages taken down is bragging about a stance that harmed the safety of a lot of sex workers. I am wondering how this point of view plays out in cities where there is a lot of sex work. Was the promise not to tax tips offsetting this stance that lost a lot of sex workers in Las Vegas?
The militant pro-Israel stance and the thoughtless anti-Iran stance seemed like a lost opportunity. We were normalizing relations with Iran under Obama, and we have lost all that. The militant pro-Israel stance is propping up a corrupt Netanyahu government.
A lot of people here were in awe of her support for the Palestinian people, but it sounded pretty weak. It was only strong if we set the baseline at “We never support Palestinians” or “We never criticize Israel position on anything.”
artem1s
@Xavier: I like the idea but honestly large turnouts could prevent this. Remember that each successive election since 2016 has had more turnout than the last in most places even for special and state wide elections. 2020 blew the doors off previous general elections. 2024 could see Dem turnout that is larger than 2008. GOP voters who only turn out for POTUS may be down. But GOP voting may offset that depending on local issues on the ballot and state campaigns.
TCF’s 2020 gambit was that the delays in calling GA, PA, etc would allow him to try to shut things down before all the ballots could be counted. It left the impression that things were closer than they really were. If not for mail in ballots due to COVID, key districts in PA and GA might have finished their counts prior to midnight (as they normally do). And those states would have been called much earlier. But many states count mail in last and there was such a huge volume and it’s a manual process that it really slowed the process. This lead to some districts needing days to complete their counts. This is why the GOP spent so much time spreading doubt about mail in voting. They knew he was going to lose. They based their whole ‘stop the steal’ strategy around questioning the ballot counts.
We know it takes a long time to certify ballots in CA because it’s so large and has so many voters. Most states don’t have those problems except in urban districts. It’s unlikely we’ll see the same volume of mail in ballots this year. But I do expect turn out in cities like we’ve never seen before. Hopefully early voting will help reduce problems on election day with long lines and ballot shortages. But if there are long lines it’s unlikely we’ll see battleground states called early.
MomSense
@Carlo Graziani:
The red wave that Republicans kept touting never materialized and the polls in 2022 never showed a red wave. There are many articles you can find about how the 2022 polls were very accurate.
Polling is imperfect but it is the best tool we have. Whichever party is dismissing polls is losing.
This is going to be a nail biter. We are in a much better position now than we were before but it’s going to be a tough fight.
Leaving to canvass shortly. We were asked if we could house a field organizer through the election and we are really looking forward to it.
FastEdD
@Maxim: I brought up that story not because I heard it from Lawrence O’Donnell, but because I heard it from KH herself in 2016. We were at a meeting at the CADEM convention. Why it stuck with me is that it makes me believe the GOP has been scared of her for a long long time and now they must be terrified. Good.