Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

Ah, the different things are different argument.

If marriage is the equivalent of selling yourself into slavery, women with self respect should reject the offer.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

If you are in line to indict donald trump, stay in line.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

Please don’t feed the bears.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

… riddled with inexplicable and elementary errors of law and fact

I like you, you’re my kind of trouble.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Let there be snark.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 913: Ukrainian Independence Day

War for Ukraine Day 913: Ukrainian Independence Day

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Screen grab of NEIVANMADE art of a man and a woman, both with blond hair, wrapped in the Ukrainian flag, and sitting on a pile of Russian rockets and skulls with the "Z" on the skulls' foreheads. It is entitled "The Light Shines in the Darkness and the Darkness Has not Overcome It."

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. She’s got all next week off and then she starts the fourth and final round of chemo. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and/or donations.

Second, as I indicated last night, the new shorter in height bed frame went together easily. Getting everything out from under the old one so the mattress and foundations could be moved and the old frame dismantled was a bit of work. As I wrote last night, it was like never ending dog hair under there. But the process was lie down, fish a box our several out from under the bed, stand up, pick up the box, and then carry it into the living room. Stop and brush dog hair off of myself. And repeat. Basically dog hair burpees combined with a shield carry. I am appropriately sore.

And the kicker to all of this is the girls have not yet figured out the bed is now shorter and they can easily jump up on it. Rosie just gave it a sniff before I started writing tonight’s update and then decided she would deign to allow me to lift her onto the bed. Ruby came off the sofa, built up a head of steam through the living room, and then came to an abrupt stop just in front of the doorway of the bedroom, and looked up at me with an expression that said: “Daddy, I’m just your wee baby girl, pick me up.” I will remind everyone that Ruby is a chocolate lab/bull & terrier mix most likely with some beagle or other small hound in her. So imagine a bull & terrier/beagle mix body with a chocolate lab head, moving at full tilt and coming to a sudden stop and trying to look pathetic in order to guilt me into picking her up.

They’re now curled up snoozing.

Today is Ukrainian Independence Day.

An Independence Day observed and celebrated thirty months into Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and over ten years into the overall Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is an independence day that sees parts of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Donetsk Oblasts and all of Luhansk Oblast and Crimea under Russian occupation. It is an independence day that sees Ukrainians fighting to prevent significant portions of Kharkiv Oblast and more of Donestk Oblast from being occupied. It is an independence day that sees Ukraine taking the fight to Russia inside of Russia. And it is an independence day that would never exist had things been up to Moscow and DC thirty-three years ago.

It is also an independence day that sees another 115 Ukrainian POWs liberated from their brutal Russian captivity.

It’s the 55th prisoner swap.

All of the 115 guys freed today were taken POW in the early weeks and months of the full-scale invasion in 2022. All of them are enlisted servicemen or non-commissioned officers.

The list includes 82 (!!!) defenders of Mariupol, including about 50 (!!!!) Azovstal garrison fighters. Also, there are six National Guards who had been taken POW at the Chornobyl NPP.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s Independence Day address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Address by Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the Independence Day of Ukraine

24 August 2024 – 09:01

Dear people!

Ukrainians always pay back their debts. And whoever wished misery upon our land shall find it in their own home. With interest. Whoever seeks to sow evil on our land will reap its fruits on their own territory.

This is not a prophecy, not gloating, not blind revenge; it is a pattern. It is justice. A boomerang for evil. And its launch began not far from the place where I am recording this address. The Sumy region. Mohrytsya. The river of Psel. A few kilometers from our border.

The border between Ukraine and oppression, between life and death. The border between an independent European state and the number one terrorist organization in the world.

913 days ago, Russia unleashed war against us, including through the Sumy region. It violated not only our sovereign borders, but also the limits of cruelty and common sense. It was endlessly striving for one thing: to destroy us. Instead, today we celebrate the 33rd Independence Day of Ukraine. And whatever the enemy was bringing to our land has now returned to their home. And the one who wanted to turn our land into a buffer zone should think about preventing his country from becoming a buffer federation. This is how independence responds. It retaliates for our civilians, who are targeted by guided aerial bombs and Kinzhals, for our parents who have turned gray, for our children who are forced to study underground. For all our people who would prefer never to know the names of these cursed places in their lives: “Savasleika”, “Olenya”, “Engels”. But unfortunately, Ukrainians know them. That is why, our enemy will also know what the Ukrainian-way retaliation is. Worthy, symmetrical, long-ranged. They will know that sooner or later a Ukrainian response will reach any point in the Russian Federation that is a source of danger to the life of our state and our people.

The faded eyes of their chief perceive the whole world as a gray zone. But we will not allow to turn into a gray zone our lands, where the blue and yellow flag rightly belongs. A sick old man from the Red Square, who constantly threatens everyone with the red button, will not dictate any of his red lines to us. Only Ukraine and Ukrainians will determine how to live, what path to take, and what choice to make. Because this is how independence works.

Ukraine astonishes once again. Russia reverts once again to its repertoire. This is how the world media generally portray the events in the Kursk region. They show how Russia treats its citizens, whom it calls “the population.” How Russia “does not abandon” their own. How their soldiers loot their local shops. This is what Putin’s Russia looks like in the eyes of the world. And in the same way, the entire world sees how our warriors provide water, food, and medicine to the local people, who say: “It’s good that you are here now, not the Kadyrovites.” This is what Ukraine’s dignity looks like. Civility. The virtue of our independence.

33 years ago, Ukraine was reborn on the maps of the world, and today Ukraine wins the hearts of the entire world. It inspires with courage. It serves as an example of how not to be afraid of Putin. And it unites the world around its Ukrainian worldview: in the 21st century, terrorists should find their reckoning in The Hague, not comfort in Valday. And no one else in the world will say: “Where is Ukraine?” Because every continent now says: “Ukraine must win”. This fuels our independence. Our Ukraine. It has no lack of foreign regions. We need peace and tranquility on our lands. Along our entire 6,992-kilometer border. On land, at sea, in the air, inside the country – wherever we stand guard for our values.

Just like our warriors do. In all directions of the frontline and the state border, which is symbolized by the border pillars. And our will and struggle are symbolized by our people – our defenders, our pillars. Those on whose shoulders Ukraine stands strong. It stands strong in Kharkiv, in Kupyansk, in Zaporizhzhia region, it stands strong in Kherson region. In Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar. On the Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, Kurakhove, Vremivka, Huliaipilske, and Orikhiv directions. This is how independence fights. And I want to say to all our warriors today: I wish you a strong one! And thank you, guys! When the need to defend Ukraine arose, you shortly said: plus. Since then, for 913 days in a row, you have been applying a “minus” to the occupiers. Only you know how much effort, sweat, blood and your extremely hard work is really hidden behind the dry statistics of enemy losses. Only you know what it really means to hold a position. What it means to be “pinned down by enemy artillery and aircraft all day long”. What it means to stand firm when “the orcs are pushing.” You have preserved and are preserving our independence.

I thank everyone who helps our warriors and our state, all those who live and work to keep our independence working and living. Our medical workers, our rescuers, our firefighters, power engineers, our volunteers and entrepreneurs, police officers and farmers, railroad workers, teachers and students. All of them. Ukrainians here, Ukrainians abroad, who help, find, send the necessary supplies, tell the world about Ukraine. And everyone who stays with Ukraine in the temporarily occupied territories. All Ukrainians whose strength has no borders, whose will is boundless. All those to whom I am immensely grateful. And today. And for each of the 913 days of this war. For the cause of each of you. For proving that independence is a cause for everyone. And it has many dimensions. Each of which must be gained to secure comprehensive independence. This is economic, this is energy independence. This is the spiritual independence of the Ukrainian people. And Ukrainian Orthodoxy today is taking a step toward liberation from the devils of Moscow. This is also the realization of justice for the awards of an independent Ukraine, which will never again be worn by those who betrayed it. This is the realization of justice for foreign heroes who defend Ukraine on the frontline and deserve Ukrainian honor – our citizenship. These are inevitable processes that have been launched by us today. This is how independence is strengthened.

And there should be a solid border between us and the enemy, and there will be no walls between Ukrainians. Because Ukraine is in each one of us. Independence is in each one of us. And united, we are able to win. It was proven by February 24. It was proven by 2022 and 2023. This year is proving it as well. We have withstood, restrained and repelled the enemy, and now we continue to do so in their swamps.

We know what independence is. How difficult it is to revive it. How difficult it is to defend it. But we know: everything depends on us.

We know what independence looks like. On the morning of February 24, it was in our eyes. Today, independence is in the trenches in all directions. It is in our cities and villages: in each episode when we find the best in ourselves, find Ukraine in ourselves, and fight for it. Independence today has tired eyes that have seen it all. Independence smiles when Ukrainians succeed. Independence is silence when we lose our people. Independence is the oath to never forget the fallen heroes. Independence tastes of smoke and dust on the battlefield and in civilian life. Independence descends into the shelter during an air raid alert to survive and to rise again to tell the enemy again: you will not succeed. You will fail. You will not prevail. And you will be held accountable for everything.

This is how we feel freedom. This is what Ukraine looks like. This is what independence looks like. And this is what it sounds like:

Happy Independence Day, Ukrainians!

Glory to Ukraine!

President Zelenskyy also met with Polish President Duda and Lithuanian Prime Minister Šimonytė today. The video of their joint press conference followed by the write up of the event is below.

Needs on the Frontline, Protection of the Skies and Further Support: Volodymyr Zelenskyy Held Meetings with the President of Poland and the Prime Minister of Lithuania

24 August 2024 – 17:04

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held meetings with President of Poland Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister of Lithuania Ingrida Šimonytė, who visited Ukraine on Independence Day.

At the beginning of the joint press conference, the Head of State said that 115 Ukrainian warriors had returned home. These are conscripts who had been in Russian captivity since 2022.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that during the meetings, he briefed the leaders on the situation on the frontline and stressed the need to maintain the pace of delivery of the agreed defense assistance packages.

They also discussed the measures needed to protect Ukrainian skies from Russian strikes.

“It is very important that the states of our region equally perceive the Russian terrorist threat and, accordingly, increase cooperation to shoot down Russian missiles and drones. The more such cooperation we have, the sooner Moscow will realize the hopelessness of its terrorist tactics,” the President said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy informed that Ukraine is increasing the capabilities of its defense and industrial complex, and it needs to strengthen cooperation with partners for joint production of weapons.

“Each such decision to finance production in Ukraine, to develop production facilities, will add the strength we all need and make a just peace for Ukraine and the whole of Europe inevitable,” he said.

The Head of State urged Ukraine’s partners to encourage the allies to lift restrictions on the use of long-range weapons.

President of Poland Andrzej Duda congratulated Ukraine on the 33rd anniversary of independence and assured that Poland will continue helping our country: by providing political, military, and other necessary support, as well as training Ukrainian warriors, medical workers, and rescuers.

“We have no doubt that it is our duty as fellow citizens of this part of Europe to support Ukraine on its way to the EU. That is why, Mr. President, we support and will continue to support you on your way to the European Union and NATO,” Andrzej Duda said.

Prime Minister of Lithuania Ingrida Šimonytė emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s victory in the war and spoke about the recent aid package to our country, which includes 10 short-range air defense systems, 30 missiles, anti-drone and other equipment, weapons, and ammunition. In addition, Lithuania hopes to provide more than 5,000 drones of its own production by the end of the fall.

“It is our duty to help Ukraine recover, but the only real way to finance these efforts is to make the aggressor pay. Lithuania will never tire of repeating that all Russian assets frozen and blocked as part of our sanctions should be transferred to Ukraine. We must continue strengthening sanctions against Russia and its accomplices,” Ingrida Šimonytė concluded.

Duda:

– If it happens that Russian forces are leaving Ukraine, I’ll be the first to call Zelensky and ask him not to bomb them and just let them go home instead, leave them be.

Zelensky:

– But what if my phone line is busy?

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Andrew Chakhoyan of the University of Amsterdam and previously of the US government’s Millennium Challenge, has some thoughts regarding the US’s and it’s allies’ and partners’ support of Ukraine on Ukrainian Independence Day 2024.

Was the Kursk incursion a reckless gamble or a masterstroke?

As Ukraine celebrates its independence day this weekend, attempting to answer this is as futile as the question is misguided. What is clear is that for the first time in over a decade, someone other than Moscow is now setting the agenda. And it speaks volumes about Ukraine’s audacity, valor and relentless pursuit of freedom, as well as the free world’s indecision and collective refusal to recognize the true danger Russia poses — not just to Ukraine.

A few months ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced a stark truth: “Our partners fear that Russia will lose this war.” Of course, the collective West isn’t to blame for Russia starting wars, but we must recognize that it will take all of us to end it — and that shifting this shared responsibility onto Ukraine is morally indefensible, as well as strategically unsound.

Near a century ago, appeasement failed with disastrous consequences. Today, it’s the policy of incrementalism — call it appeasement-light — that’s failing. And both the U.S. and Europe must acknowledge that our fear of provoking Moscow is what ends up reliably provoking Moscow.

This cycle must end.

At the end of the Cold War, the free world exhaled. Communism defeated, problem solved. However, the threat from Moscow lay in its colonial ambitions as a Frankenstein state, not its ideology.

The saltwater fallacy that colonies exist only overseas obscures the obvious: Russia relies on perpetual expansion. Its invasions of neighboring states aren’t anomalies but historical patterns. Moscow’s legitimacy and the stability of its fragile empire are rooted in an unending cycle of conquest and domination that hinges on violence, the appropriation of other nations’ histories and the subjugation of people.

We misconceive and justify Russia at our own peril. And as bizarre as it sounds, we’ve done so eagerly, despite overwhelming evidence, despite the clear and present danger it poses not just to Ukraine but to the entire world and, paradoxically, its own people.

Our dogged Putinversteher — giving Moscow the benefit of the doubt despite its obvious belligerence — and attempts to reset relations have only emboldened the Kremlin. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said it best: “Who cares what Putin would do if Russia loses? We should worry more about what he would do if Russia wins.”

We saw Russia’s brutal campaign in Chechnya in the 1990’s, and yet conveniently dismissed it as an “internal matter.” When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, we failed to mount an adequate response. Crimea’s annexation in 2014 saw us falter once again as Moscow redrew international borders by force. And when Russian “volunteers” infiltrated my native Donbas, and pseudo-republics emerged out of nowhere, we turned a blind eye too. We knew Moscow was responsible for the MH17 tragedy, but we again failed to act decisively.

Now, Russia is committing the crime of aggression, and Ukraine is defending freedom. All the while, the global community is vacillating, hesitating and, in many instances, betraying. How can we not see the cruelty of our actions — helping Ukraine hold the line, but not enough to expel its aggressor? We cannot wish this problem away: Moscow will not stop until we stop it. And looking for a middle ground is delusional.

History has shown that when met with weakness and indecision, Russia escalates; but when met with strength and resolve, it backs off. In 1989, as a nuclear-armed global superpower — and one of only two in the world at the time — the Soviet Union lost a war in Afghanistan and went home. Its equally violent descendant, however, has ostensibly won every war it started, and the results are self-evident.

After Ukraine took control of dozens of towns in the Kursk region, however, Russian officials toned down the nuclear saber-rattling. Putin didn’t announce mobilization, nor did he declare war. Rather, he referred to Russia’s efforts as an “anti-terror” operation to avoid triggering military doctrine. Conceivably, Russia could have called on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to activate its version of “Article 5” — but it didn’t. Instead, the strongman in the Kremlin appears paralyzed. And after years of Western self-deterrence, which emboldened Moscow, we’re finally seeing what effective de-escalation looks like.

If Moscow raises the stakes in response to the West’s inaction once more, we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves. The free world needs to live up to its name, commit to a decisive Ukrainian victory and deliver lasting peace to Europe — a continent whose success is rooted in its postwar ethos.

The cost:

The writing on the image machine translates as:

Nick, a service dog who had served in intelligence since the first days of the war, died at the front.

A message from the Commander of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov:

Ukrainians always return their debts. However, do Ukrainians always keep their word and return their citizens who are in captivity?

Putin needed to reduce the pressure inside his country and save his face by returning the conscripts who were captured in the Kursk region. Those responsible for the exchange on the Ukrainian side, according to a soviet tradition, had to organize a media “victory” before the holiday.

This formula did not find any place for Azov POWs who have been waiting for the promised exchanges for more than 2 years.

This is despite the fact that, in Ukraine, there is a colossal request from society for the return of those who in Mariupol in 2022 did everything to ensure that Ukraine continued to exist and today celebrated its Independence Day, not a “day of national unity”.

This is despite the fact that the captured Russians themselves asked to exchange them for Azov fighters.

This is despite the fact that the Ukrainian negotiating team had tremendous leverage during this exchange, being able to act from a position of strength.

All this has not been utilized. In today’s exchange, again, there are no Azov fighters. Precious opportunity and time have been lost.

What are all the pompous words spoken today worth if none of the 900 loyal to Ukraine servicemen who are being treated the absolute worst in Russian captivity have been returned home?

Ukraine’s Independence Day should be first and foremost about gratitude. Gratitude to those who dedicated themselves to the defense of Ukraine. And certainly to those who saved Ukraine’s independence by obeying orders in an utterly hopeless situation. In a complete encirclement, without sufficient weapons and medical supplies, against the enemy’s many times superior forces.

Ukraine has failed this test of gratitude today. The task has not been fulfilled. The next attempt will cost even more.

As you fall asleep tonight in your comfortable homes, where there are no warders, interrogations and torture, think about whether you really understand what independence is and whether you realize the price we pay for it. This will not console the families of those who celebrated Independence Day in captivity for the third time today. It will not make the conditions of my brothers in arms in Russian prisons any better. But perhaps it will help you finally decide to fight for the Azov POWs during the next negotiations, as they fought for Ukraine’s independence in Mariupol.

The reason:

It’s the third Ukrainian Independence Day they said would never happen.

Yet, here we are.

Mourning our dead, having firm friends by our side, doing what is right, breaking our way through so many no’s and never’s — and having good hope, after all.

This day belongs not only to us Ukrainians but also to all good people around the world whose faith and aid help this wonderful country, which never deserved such a terrible plight, survive and fight to see another sunrise.

HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!

Life will win over death, and light will win over darkness (с)
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Another 115 of our defenders have returned home today. These are warriors of the National Guard, the Armed Forces, the Navy, and the State Border Guard Service.

We remember everyone. We are searching for them and making every effort to bring them all back.

I am grateful to each unit that replenishes our exchange fund. This helps to advance the release of our military personnel and civilians from Russian captivity. I thank our team and partners, the UAE, for bringing our people back home.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

Hromadske video with those convicted of minor offenses who were given the opportunity to join the ranks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Many are combat veterans who have been long waiting for this opportunity. Some have applied six times before the approval came.

The commanders are extremely satisfied with the new servicemen: their motivation and discipline are much better than mobilised soldiers.

Wartime legends and memes are now becoming part of the nation’s new tradition.

Zelensky today responded to popular pleas and officially assigned Ukraine’s 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade the honorable nickname “The Ghost of Kyiv” for its distinguished record in defending Ukraine’s capital in 2022.

There were some questions in the comments last night about Modi’s visit to Ukraine. My professional take is Modi is every but the tyrannical theocrat he appears to be and that anything he says cannot be trusted. Here’s some coverage of his visit from the Indian press:

France:

The Russian machine translates as:

What’s so funny, comrades? If our enemies get into the telegram, things will be bad for us. A lot of information flows through closed chats and more, and all the military know this no worse than I do.

Don’t ask me questions like “Why is the cart almost the main connection for us in war?”

The creator of Telegram, Pavel Durov, was arrested at Le Bourget airport, where he arrived from Azerbaijan.
This was reported by the French news channel LCI.

Durov was shown a search warrant issued by the OFMIN (small office) of the national department of judicial police of France on the basis of a preliminary investigation.

According to the French TV channel TF1, the warrant against the founder of Telegram was issued because Durov did not cooperate with the French security forces, which makes him an accomplice to drug trafficking and other serious crimes.

Durov was in Baku at the same time as Putin, but there was no information about their meeting.

Durov is also to be questioned due to suspicions of wiretapping Macron’s manager through the secure network
Telegram.

Amid news of the arrest of Pavel Durov in France, shares of the TON cryptocurrency used in Telegram began to fall sharply.

Pavel Durov faces up to 20 years in prison. He will soon appear in court as a French citizen.

While a lot of the open-source information about what Russia is doing in Ukraine, as well as Ukraine’s response, originates on Telegram before it makes its way to other social media platforms, Telegram is also used for just about everything bad you can think of. Drug trafficking and smuggling planning, terrorism, human trafficking, a variety of financial and cyber crimes, all of them are planned or organized using Telegram.

Germany:

The Financial Times has the details:

One of Nato’s most sensitive military bases was put on a state of high alert for almost 24 hours over intelligence warnings of a potential sabotage attack by Russian agents.

Geilenkirchen in north-west Germany, the home of Nato’s Awacs aerial reconnaissance fleet, sent all non-essential personnel home on Thursday evening as part of a security lockdown of the base. It was the second such incident at a military site on German territory in under two weeks.

A spokesperson for the facility, close to the Dutch border, said core military operations had not been affected and Nato had continued to operate Awacs flights — which provide the alliance with vital long-range early warning information and intelligence on hostile military activity.

“The Nato Airborne Early Warning & Control Force has raised the security level at Nato air base Geilenkirchen,” said spokesperson Donny Demmers on Friday morning. “This is based on intelligence indicating a potential threat . . . The safety of our staff is a top priority. Critical operations at the air base continue as planned.”

The state of alert was a “precautionary measure”, Demmers said.

The base lowered the security level and said it would begin allowing staff to return late on Friday afternoon.

Military and local police were brought in to provide extra security at the site but no indication of a breach was found, despite the intelligence.

The lockdown of the airfield — known in Nato jargon as alert level Charlie, the second highest state of emergency — comes after another nearby military base, in Cologne-Wahn, went on alert this month after an intruder was discovered to have cut through fencing in an apparent attempt to reach the base’s water supply unit.

It is also the second incident at Geilenkirchen, where a man was stopped from trespassing on to the site at the same time as the alleged sabotage attempt at Cologne-Wahn. That incident was unconnected with the current alert at Geilenkirchen, officials said.

Military sites across Germany have been warned to prepare for potential acts of sabotage as part of what western intelligence agencies believe is a mounting campaign of covert violence being plotted by Russian spies and their proxies.

Last week 10,000 residents in the area of a German military base in Mechernich were told to drink only bottled water after holes were found in fencing around a local pumping station. Authorities eventually concluded the supply had not been contaminated.

As well as being vital for Nato’s own defence capabilities, the Awacs fleet based at Geilenkirchen has been used to aid Ukraine by providing it with vital intelligence.

Awacs flights in international airspace over the Black Sea have been able to gather significant detail on Russian military positions and manoeuvres thanks to their powerful long-range capabilities.

Western security officials believe the Kremlin has ordered its intelligence services to inflict physical damage on European domestic and military targets in reprisal for European support of Ukraine.

Moscow has recently accused the west of backing Ukraine’s counter-incursion in Russia’s Kursk region, which also started earlier this month.

While the Kremlin’s agents have a long history of sabotage, evidence was growing of a more aggressive and concerted effort this year, intelligence officials told the Financial Times in May.

Numerous people have been arrested in connection to alleged foiled plots around Europe since — varying in degrees of sophistication and seriousness.

More at the link.

I have lost track of how many times I have written it here, but we are in a world war. Putin declared it at the 2007 Munich Security Conference while claiming that Russia was actually the victim. We can date Russia actually becoming operational to 2008 with the invasion and occupation of Georgia. It would behoove the leadership of the US, the EU and the EU member states, NATO and the NATO member states to finally recognize this reality and begin to act accordingly. The hour is very late indeed.

Kostantyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Nova Khakovka, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Kharkiv:

Earlier in the day:

This is the third Independence Day that Ukraine and Kharkiv celebrate amidst a full-scale war.

For the first time in these three years, people in Kharkiv have dared to step out onto the streets, even if only in small numbers.

Yes, it remains dangerous, but lifting restrictions makes a difference, your support makes a difference. They give us room to breathe, to live!

In the video, Kharkiv’s mayor interacts with a street musician among a small crowd of passersby—something unimaginable in Kharkiv just a few months ago.

The Kinburn Spit, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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    1. 1.

      Gin & Tonic

      Last night Adam quoted from a Jen Rubin piece which quoted somebody else saying, in essence, that in February of 2022 Kamala Harris felt strongly that Zelensky should be briefed on the US intelligence assessment about the likelihood of russian invasion, and that she flew over to brief him herself. Today I saw a comment from someone saying that she’d gone to Kyiv to brief him, which is taking the first sentence here to a false conclusion. No fault of Adam’s of course, but to avoid any misunderstanding, Kamala Harris spoke to Zelensky in February of 2022 during the Munich Security Conference. There is no reporting I am aware of that she has ever set foot in Ukraine. And there are Ukrainian commentators who aren’t fans of that briefing, since it did not carry with it any hard promises of US action (certainly reflecting the overly-cautious position of the Biden administration at that time.)

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    2. 2.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Gin & Tonic: G&T is correct. The reporting, both Rubin’s quotation of the original and the excerpt she quoted, never mentioned Kyiv. Just so everyone is clear, Rubin cited Fred Kaplan’s reporting at Slate from about three weeks ago. I linked to both of them in that portion of the update. This is the excerpt that Rubi quoted and that I included in last night’s update:

      In February 2022, when the PDB revealed new, highly reliable intelligence that Russian President Vladimir Putin was about to invade Ukraine, officials who were present say that it was Harris who suggested that the intel be shown to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a face-to-face meeting—then made the trip to do so herself. One official recalls, “This was some of the most detailed intelligence sharing, outside of intelligence channels, that I have been party to. And her presentation of it, along with options of what we could do about it, was compelling.” Harris has since met with Zelensky five more times.

      Reply
    3. 3.

      Gin & Tonic

      Also with respect to last night’s thread, some time today, when the thread was long dead, commenter Torrey asked about a couple of Ukrainian words possibly used as shibboleths. The initial context was a Gerashchenko Tweet which included a video of a russian in Ukrainian-occupied Kursk joking about mispronouncing the word “palyanytsia.” Torrey pointed out, correctly, that this is very close to the Ukrainian word “poliunytsia” and wondered if that’s used the same way. So here is more than most of you will want to know.

      The first, “palyanytsia” (in Ukrainian паляниця) is a very common type of bread, Americans might call it rustic-style. The second, “poliunytsia” (in Ukrainian полюниця) is a strawberry. Both words contain two elements that will trip up a russian-speaker – the first is the second-to-last vowel, the Ukrainian letter и, which to Ukrainians is pronounced like the letter “i” in “fish,” while to russians it’s pronounced like the “ea” in “fear” – the second is the last phoneme, “ця,” transliterated as “tsia” with a distinctly palatalized “ts” sound, which is uncommon (perhaps not occurring at all?) in russian, so they’ll pronounce a “hard” “tsa.” Why aren’t both equally-used shibboleths? I’m not sure, really, maybe just because bread is more common than strawberries? Whatever the reason, the bread one is popularly known, to the point that the Ukrainians have now developed their own missile called, you guessed it, “Palyanytsia.”

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Adam L Silverman

      Just a head’s up: Israel has just launched a preemptory, escalatory strike on Hezbullah positions in Lebanon. The justification is that they had intel that Hezbullah was getting ready to strike Israel. It is important to remember that this is the holy month for Shi’a as it is the month in which Hussein ibni Ali ibni Abu Talib was martyred. Tomorrow is Arbaeen, the actual commemoration day.

      Here’s the video of IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Hagari’s statement in English, followed by a transcript:

      “A short time ago, we detected Hezbollah’s preparations to launch missiles and rockets at the State of Israel. Following this, we attack proactively to remove the threat to the citizens of the State of Israel. Air Force planes are now attacking terrorist targets in Lebanon from which we detect that Hezbollah is preparing to launch threats to our territory.
      In the near future, Hezbollah will launch rockets, and possibly missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, towards the territory of the State of Israel. Accordingly, “life-saving” instructions of the Home Front Command will be distributed in the various regions.

      We warn the Lebanese citizens who are in South Lebanon – we recognize that Hezbollah is now preparing to shoot widely into Israeli territory near your home.
      You are in danger. We attack and remove Hezbollah threats. Anyone who is near the areas where Hezbollah operates, is required to stay away from them immediately, in order to protect himself and his family.

      The IDF is doing and will do everything necessary to protect the citizens of the State of Israel. In the next hour I will appear here again and update you on all developments”

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Adam L Silverman

      Israel’s Channel 11 News Arab Affairs correspondent Roi Kais is reporting that the strikes lasted about 40 minutes. Now we wait and see what happens.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      KatKapCC

      But what if my phone line is busy?

      I guess Zelensky still has a bit of the comedian in him. But that video from him was really moving. (I watched it on FB where it has English subtitles and not the voiceover.) I don’t know if he writes his own speeches, but it was wonderful.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      wjca

      @Adam L Silverman: Israel has just launched a preemptory, escalatory strike on Hezbullah positions in Lebanon. The justification is that they had intel that Hezbullah was getting ready to strike Israel.

      At this point, I’m not sure that the israeli government has any real credibility left.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      BR

      @Adam L Silverman: ​

      I made a wild guess the other day, curious what you think. Seems likely that Israel could start and/or get into a war with Lebanon/Iran within the next month or two. Biden has largely said that the US will stay out of it. But setting aside the military strategy or lack thereof, my gut says that nobody in the US will care about an Israel/Iran war and the political focus on Gaza and rift on the left would disappear as a result, because Iranian-American activists (of whom there are a lot in my area of SoCal) have no love for Iran’s government.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Chet Murthy

      @BR: I would hope that you’re right, but …. I have great doubts.  If Israel and Iran get into a hot war, it seems difficult to imagine that Iran won’t target oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, and at that point the US has to get involved, right?  And I have to believe that Bibi -wants- this to happen: he -wants- to drag the US in, and will act to create the conditions for that.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Adam L Silverman

      @BR: Israel has never achieved successful battlefield termination, read that as won, in any conflict with Hezbullah. Either they’ve exhausted themselves and can’t go any further, we tell them it’s time to stop, or both.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Chris

      @Chet Murthy:

      Once again I will say, the central fact of this war as far as America is concerned is that Bibi is determined to overreach in whatever way is blatant enough to maximally hammer away at fault lines in the Democratic coalition and throw the election to Trump. And most of the Democratic Party either is blissfully ignoring this, or has no idea what to do about it.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Chet Murthy

      @Chris: I don’t think there -is- anything the Dems can do about it, other than begging.  I’m serious.  I think that “support for Israel” is a majority position in the Dem base [and of course among American voters], and if it were a choice between “ending the conflict in Gaza” and “supporting Israel”, they will always choose “supporting Israel”.  And as it turns out, that is the binary choice on-hand: as long as Bibi can count on a US backstop, he can do whatever the hell he wants to Gazans, basically whatever the hell he wants, with no repercussions.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Chris

      @Chet Murthy:

      Which effectively translates to “the majority position in the Democratic base is that we should support the arsonists burning us down.” Which is, sadly, pretty much the most Democratic thing ever.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Andrya

      @Chet Murthy:   I don’t want to start a fight with you, and I very much respect your input to these threads, but this is precisely why I think it was an error for the Harris campaign to refuse to include a moderate, non-antisemitic Palestinian-American speaker at the DNC.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya: I’m a little confused: are you saying:

      (1) you think the Dem base is OK with the US abandoning Israel ?

      or (2) are you saying that -despite- the Dem base not being OK with that, the DNC should -still- have had a pro-Palestinian speaker ?

      [for the record, I think the US -should- give Israel an ultimatum that if it doesn’t vacate the Occupied Territories, the US will abandon Israel as an ally by a fixed date.  Give them a year.

      P.S. Or (3) do you think there is a way to end the genocide in Gaza, without the US credibly threatening Israel with abandonment ?

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Andrya

      @Chet Murthy:   I think the Democratic party has a responsibility to educate their voters.  I have been amazed how many fellow leftists have no understanding whatsoever about (for example) the rampages of settlers on the Left Bank, or Netanyahu’s repeated promises “no Two State Solution ever”, or the way that Israel suppressed the Gazan economy.  Ultimately, I believe these things are extremely destructive for Israel, as well as for the Palestinians.

      Also, Democratic voters who want a Two State Solution are a minority, but they aren’t zero, and they aren’t negligible.  The Republicans are obviously planning to use this issue to split the Democratic  coalition.  It’s political malpractice to ignore this.

      Again, I am not antisemitic or anti-Israel.  I believe that a Two State Solution is the best possible outcome for Israel.  Netanyahu opposes this because he puts his own benefit- personal and political- above the welfare of his country.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya: And you think that the right time to educate Dem voters about this -foreign policy- issue, is in the middle of a campaign, the outcome of which will determine whether the USA remains a democracy, ?

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Jay

      Olga Lautman 🇺🇦
      @OlgaNYC1211
      10h
      There you go!

      Explains why Twitter has been pushing Nazi accounts, Russian news sites and government officials, helping Russia whitewash its genocide against Ukraine, and bury Ukrainian accounts.

      The children of sanctioned Russians own a part of Twitter and got their money’s worth. Outrageous it took so long to find out

      https://nitter.poast.org/OlgaNYC1211/status/1827406595694706950#m

      Heather Burgundy 🇺🇦🇯🇵
      @HeatherBurgundy
      17h
      Elon Musk satisfied the demands and provided a list of shareholders of “X Holding Corp”, who helped the billionaire buy Twitter.
      Among them are Petr Aven and Vadim Moshkovich.

      Petr Aven is a Russian billionaire, founder of Alfa Group, one of the main wallets for Putin. Aven is one of Putin’s oldest friends. Putin would be in prison instead of becoming president without him. Aven covered for Vladimir Putin in 1992, when he organized an illegal trade in export licenses; he was also present at a meeting with Putin on February 24, 2022, in the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. He did not express any protest against “SVO” and supported Putin. By the way, he, together with Fridman, is trying to lift sanctions from himself, just yesterday he received another refusal in this matter.
      In the purchase of Twitter he is represented by the company “8VC Opportunities Fund II, LP”, where his son Denis works.

      Vadim Moshkovich is a sanctioned Russian agricultural billionaire who was a member of the “Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.” In other words, he was officially part of Putin’s inner circle. Moshkovich owns Russia’s largest agricultural holding, Rusagro. Naturally, he was also present at the meeting with Putin on February 24, 2022, and, like Aven, did not express any protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
      In the purchase of Twitter he is represented by the company “8VC Opportunities Fund II, LP”, where his son Jack (Eugene) works.

      Knowing all this, we now understand Elon Musk’s bias. Everyone was wondering how it was possible that Twitter shares (X) were falling, advertisers were breaking contracts, and no one was doing anything. This was direct damage to investors. But everyone failed to take into account the fact that investors needed a platform to promote their narratives, such as: support for Putin and Russia; lobbying for freezing the war in Ukraine; removing the Ukrainian agenda from the top news etc.

      It is now clear that all the changes on Twitter that are ruining this wonderful platform are a result of Elon Musk’s collaboration with people like Moshkovich and Aven.

      https://nitter.poast.org/HeatherBurgundy/status/1827303361106108789#m

      And huge chunks of the US’s and West’s “National Security” is in Apartheid Clyde’s hands.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      wjca

      @Andrya: Democratic voters who want a Two State Solution are a minority, but they aren’t zero, and they aren’t negligible.

      Seriously?  What do you think the putative majority see as a solution?

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Jay

      @wjca:

      Overall, Americans’ support for a two-state solution has increased modestly since 2022, from 35% to 40%. Much of the shift has come among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Today, 48% of Democrats favor a two-state solution, up from 36% in 2022. Indeed, this shift has opened up a partisan gap in views of the two-state solution that was not present in 2022.

      https://www.pewresearch.org/2024/03/21/majority-in-u-s-say-israel-has-valid-reasons-for-fighting-fewer-say-the-same-about-hamas/

      Opinion is somewhat more mixed when it comes to the best possible outcome of the conflict. A plurality (40%) says the best outcome would be a two-state solution – splitting the land into two countries, one with an Israeli government and one with a Palestinian government. But many Americans remain unsure of the best outcome (30%), and some prefer a model in which all the land is one country with an Israeli government (14%) or one country that is jointly governed by Israelis and Palestinians (13%). Few prefer the land to be one country with a Palestinian government (2%).

      Reply
    28. 28.

      Andrya

      @Chet Murthy:   Yes.  It’s obvious that the Republicans are planning to use this issue to split the Democratic coalition.   If the very large number of Muslim voters in Michigan who usually vote Democrat stay home, the Republicans have a very good shot at winning Michigan…  and I don’t see how Harris prevails while losing Michigan.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Andrya

      @wjca:   I don’t think the majority of Democrats have a clear vision of a solution.  Netanyahu has communicated “we can keep this situation going on forever” and a lot of Israelis and Americans have bought that.

      And a lot of American Evangelical Protestants want a huge war in the Middle East, because they think it will bring about the events in the Book of Revelation.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya: that doesn’t really answer the question of whether it’s wise to front-and-center the issue on the main stage of the DNC though, does it?  Jay pasted a Pew Research link above; I clicked-thru  and it starts

      Months into the Israel-Hamas war, roughly six-in-ten Americans (58%) say Israel’s reasons for fighting Hamas are valid.   But how Israel is carrying out its response to Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack receives a more mixed evaluation. About four-in-ten U.S. adults (38%) say Israel’s conduct of the war has been acceptable, and 34% say it has been unacceptable. The remaining 26% are unsure.

      There is simply no way the US can affect the way Israel carries out its war.  So what would be achieved by putting a pro-Palestinian voice on the DNC stage?  Concretely, what would be achieved?

      And I’ll contrast that explicitly with putting Americans on that stage who have family members who are hostages: what is achieved there, is to reassure the 58% of Americans who think that Israel is justified to fight this war, that we stand with Israel.  That is -directly- in support of winning in November.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Andrya

      @Chet Murthy:   I know you and I are never going to agree about this, but my answer is “yes”.

      Morally, there are two ways to support Israel.  Either unconditionally  (“anything you do we will support!”) or conditionally (“we won’t ship you any more bombs until you stop indiscriminately bombing civilians” or “our support will be limited until you get serious about a Two State Solution.  We won’t let you be obliterated, but we will cut back on aid as long as you make it clear that you will never accept a two state solution”).

      The Atlantic Magazine website is currently reprinting an article from 1861 by abolitionist Thomas Wentworth Higginson.  The article describes the Nat Turner slave rebellion.  The Turner rebellion (I had not known this) used horrific terrorism-  they killed every white person they encountered, even small children.  That was wrong, at least as regards the children.  But it would be even more wrong to say “Horrific terrorism must be opposed!  Slavery forever!”  That is the mistake that many American supporters of Israel are making.

      I think the zero-sum thinking of the Israeli government (“No Two State Solution!”  “Settlers get to run amok!”  “No viable economy for Gaza!”) is bad for Israel as well as for the Palestinians.  I consider myself a friend of Israel, and my motto is “friends don’t let friends drive drunk”.  The current Israeli government is self-destructive, and I want the US government to lean on them to stop.

      Now, the political problem.  The election doesn’t depend on national percentages, but on the electoral college.   It’s unlikely that Harris will win if she loses Michigan.  But Michigan has a large Muslim population, which in the last few elections have voted for Democrats.  After the convention communicated to American Muslims “our offer to you is nothing!  You do not have a place at the table!” Muslim organizations for Harris in Michigan began disbanding and withdrawing their support.

      It doesn’t help to win the popular vote if we lose the Electoral College – both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton can testify to that.

      Reply
    32. 32.

      Jay

      @Andrya:

      With respect to the war in Gaza: President Biden and I are working around the clock. Because now is the time to get a hostage deal and ceasefire done.

      Let me be clear: I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself. Because the people of Israel must never again face the horror that the terrorist organization Hamas caused on October 7, including unspeakable sexual violence and the massacre of young people at a music festival.

      At the same time, what has happened in Gaza over the past ten months is devastating. So many innocent lives lost. Desperate, hungry people fleeing for safety, over and over again. The scale of suffering is heartbreaking.

      President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity. Security. Freedom. And self-determination.

      And know this: I will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists. And I will not cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-un, who are rooting for Trump. Because they know he is easy to manipulate with flattery and favors. They know Trump won’t hold autocrats accountable — because he wants to be an autocrat.

      As president, I will never waver in defense of America’s security and ideals. Because, in the enduring struggle between democracy and tyranny, I know where I stand — and where the United States of America belongs.

      https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/read-kamala-harriss-speech-at-the-dnc-in-chicago.html

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya: OK, now I fully understand your position, and it’s a funny thing: we agree -completely- about the issue.  I also believe that we need to give Israel -ultimatums- with -consequences- to -force- them to stop their genocidal war, to vacate the Occupied Territories.

      Where we differ, is  whether making such a stand in the middle of this election season, is a good idea.  You think it’s a good idea, b/c the votes won in Michigan will be more valuable than the votes lost elsewhere.  I think otherwise, and that taking such a stand would be enormously divisive, and would hand a gift to Trump at a time he sorely needs it.

      But I want to reiterate: I think we agree on the actual ground issue.

      Reply
    34. 34.

      Chet Murthy

      @Jay: @Andrya:

      Let me be clear: I will always stand up for Israel’s right to defend itself and I will always ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself.

      I understand why Harris made this promise, but the simple fact is, it’s the same as saying “Bibi can do what he wants, we’ll always back him up.”  All the rest of her pretty words about Gaza and the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination, the two-state solution, and all that, was just so much claptrap.  Empty words with no meaning whatsoever.  As long as Israel has the US backstop and weaponry, Israel will continue to do what they’ve done for 30 years, which is to chew away at Palestinian land acre-by-acre.

      But I understand why she said it, and why it was -necessary- to have said it, and especially why it was necessary to make that -unconditional- vow of support.  Maybe someday the American people will support a -conditional- support of Israel, but that day is not in 2024.

      Andrya, I’m assuming you believe she should not  have made this unconditional vow of support, and that if she’d made instead a conditional vow, and made greater emphasis on the rights of Palestinians, it would have been better for the election [as well as, of course, being a more moral position, which is what I also believe] ?

      Reply
    35. 35.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya:

      After the convention communicated to American Muslims “our offer to you is nothing!  You do not have a place at the table!” Muslim organizations for Harris in Michigan began disbanding and withdrawing their support.

      I don’t remember exactly, but I believe your position was that you couldn’t condemn those American Muslims who decided not to vote for the Dems, because of Harris’ insufficient support for the Palestinian cause.  My own position was that those American Muslims could purchase AR-15s and tickets to the Middle East and join the fight.  I’m with A.R. Moxon

      “Historians have a word for Germans who joined the Nazi party, not because they hated Jews, but out of a hope for restored patriotism, or a sense of economic anxiety, or a hope to preserve their religious values, or dislike of their opponents, or raw political opportunism, or convenience, or ignorance, or greed.
      That word is “Nazi.” Nobody cares about their motives anymore.”

      History isn’t going to overlook these people who decide that rather than support the preservation of their Republic, their democracy, they chose to side with the MAGAts out of a hope to gain support for their ancestral homeland overseas.  Those who boycott the Democrats for this are no better than any other MAGAt.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      Jay

      @Chet Murthy:

      As the Pew poll shows, conditional support for Israel is significant and amongst the younger generations, growing.

      It’s hard to say. Muslim Women for Harris have pulled their support and dissolved their grassroots organization.

      There is a big difference between supporting a candidate and voting for a candidate.

      I do not support my NDP MP. She has some issues, not being much of a local supporter, coasting in many regards, distanced from the community, amongst others, but I will vote for her, because the alternate is a Wingnut Qanon Con.

      If I were in the New Westminster riding, I would fully support the NDP MP there, donating, GOTV, etc, because she is a rock star.

      For the “Uncommitted” the choice is:

      Stay home and help that guy ensuring a Palestinian Genocide.

      Vote for that guy, ensuring a Palestinian Genocide.

      Hold their noses and vote Kamela/Walz creating the possibility,………

      Since Joe Clark, I have always voted ABC, Anybody But the Conservative, because Reform introduced crazy to the Con’s and took over the Party.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Chet Murthy

      @Jay:

      As the Pew poll shows, conditional support for Israel is significant and amongst the younger generations, growing.

      You can add me to the list of such people, and that has happened since Oct 7.  I went from “I want Israel to return the Occupied Territories, but I fully support Israel’s existence” to “if Israel will not retun the Occupied Territories in Toto, I no longer support Israel”.

      I’m just not going to destroy my own country for that foreign policy position.

      I do understand the difference between “‘not supporting a candidate/party” and “not voting for a candidate/party”.  The former means that you’re not going to work within your affinity group to get them to vote for that candidate/party.  Which means your group as a whole will turnout less for that candidate/party.  So later when you go to that politician/party and ask for something, they’re going to  look at you and ask “who are you?”  Maybe you’ll get your ask b/c it’s good governance.  But you won’t get special treatment.  That’s how politics works.

      Reply
    41. 41.

      YY_Sima Qian

      Israel is claiming to have destroyed thousands of rockets ready for launch, & the initial Hezbollah strike is numbered at only 300+ rockets/drones. However, we all know Hezbollah has many more rockets, missiles & drones, & can keep up the harassment of Israel for months on end, further disrupting an Israeli economy already under severe strain from the sustained mass mobilization of reserves. This is before IDF actually goes into southern Lebanon.

      Like so many of the IDF’s actions since the ’82 invasion of Lebanon, it is yet another tactical accomplishment that serves no strategic or geopolitical end.

      Reply
    42. 42.

      Geminid

      @YY_Sima Qian: Istanbul-based security reporter Levent Kemal posted this analysis:

      “Hezbollah had planned to launch 1500 misdiles and 200 drones at miltary targets including the Mossad and the Unit 8200 HQs.

      However, it was able to launch 20 drones and 320 rockets. That means only 10 batteries were run from 50. This aligns with the IDF report that 40 sites were destroyed.

      But I must say there is one interesting point.: the IDF hit 40 points, but only 3 people were killed.

      And apparently, Hezbollah has found a simple way: retaliate, but don’t make them angry. Long live propaganda.”

      Reply
    43. 43.

      wjca

      @Chet Murthy: I understand why Harris made this promise, but the simple fact is, it’s the same as saying “Bibi can do what he wants, we’ll always back him up.”

      No, it is not the same.  Not even close.

      Just for the record, I agree with both you and Andrya on what needs to be done.  And I agree with you on the timing.

      Personally, I would like to see Biden issue Bibi an ultimatum in November, the day after a Harris victory.  Doubtful that he will, but perhaps he will realize that it’s preferable to having her do it in January.

      Reply
    44. 44.

      Chet Murthy

      @wjca: We agree on almost everything, yes.  It would be a great thing if Biden did as you describe.  But I’m not holding my breath: he’s been an excellent President, but that’s mostly because he knows where the centroid of the Democratic caucus is, and he’s right there.  Until the Democratic caucus moves to “abandon Israel if they won’t behave decently” he won’t move either.  From what we’ve all read, the young have a different perception of Israel — instead of a scrappy nation trying to stay alive, they see an oppressor, murdering and crippling children.  A decade from now,  maybe it’ll be possible to do what we both want.  Sigh.

      As far as whether Harris’ promise is the same as “Bibi can do what he wants, we’ll always support Israel” …. some scenarios:

      Israel attacks Iran (as they’ve been doing perennially for years and years); Iran responds, attacking Israel.  Does the US help with missile shootdowns?  What happens when Iran then attacks US ships? etc
      Today Israel gets US bombs that it uses on Gaza, almost certainly in Lebanon, etc.  Will the US backfill those bombs ?  I have to believe the answer is “yes”.  I’ve read that the US ostensibly sanctioned a couple of Israeli battalions — our arms cannot go to those battalions.  But if Israel took weapons we gave them, and transferred them to those battalions, would we actually refuse to ship any more weapons to Israel?  Haha, I doubt that.

      This is what I mean by “Bibi gets a blank check”: at the end of the day, if we give Israel weapons, we don’t also say “and if you use these in ways we don’t like, these’ll be the last.”  Without that credible threat, it’s the same as “use these as you like, we’ll always give you more.”

      It is what it is

      P.S. Perhaps you can explain what you mean by “No, it is not the same.  Not even close.”

      Reply
    45. 45.

      wjca

      @Chet Murthy: It may be that Bibi will read it as a blank check.  But I see a fair amount of room between “We support the right of Israel to exist, secure within internationally recognized borders” and “We’re on board with ‘from the Jordan to the sea’.”

      The former is what I hear Harris saying.  The latter is what I think Bibi wants — if not personally, then in order to maintain the support of the coalition he needs.

      Reply

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