Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

Republicans don’t trust women.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

It’s a new day. Light all those Biden polls of young people on fire and throw away the ashes.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

In after Baud. Damn.

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Everyone is in a bubble, but some bubbles model reality far better than others!

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

We’re not going back!

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 914: If It’s a Day Ending in Day, the Russians Are Committing War Crimes & Crimes Against Humanity

War for Ukraine Day 914: If It’s a Day Ending in Day, the Russians Are Committing War Crimes & Crimes Against Humanity

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Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Not much more to report until her next chemo treatment a week from tomorrow. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, everything that was removed from under the bed and moved into the living room for a couple of days, which will now not fit under the new shorter frame, has now been brought back into the bedroom and stowed in the closet. I’ve done a lot of pick up, shield or farmer’s carry, put down, and then wrangle into place today. I’ve got a compression ice wrap on my arm and am going to keep this brief so I can go get cleaned up and rack out.

The Russians committed another war crime and crime against humanity in Kramatorsk today:

Here’s Reuters‘ statement:

Targeting civilian targets, like hotels, and civilians are violations of both International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the Law of Armed Combat (LOAC).

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The World Must Not Forget for a Single Day That Together, We Are Stronger Than Any Terrorist – Address by the President

25 August 2024 – 21:42

Dear Ukrainians!

All day today, the rubble in Kramatorsk was being cleared after a Russian missile strike. Among those injured were journalists, including a film crew from Reuters. Citizens of Ukraine, America and Britain. An ordinary city hotel was destroyed by a Russian Iskander missile – deliberately, purposefully. This strike injured seven people and took one life. My condolences to the family and friends. This is the daily Russian terror that continues because Russia still has the means to continue. Today, there were also Russian strikes on our Sumy region with the use of guided aerial bombs, as well as strikes on Kharkiv, Kherson, and Donetsk regions. And for all this, the world must not stop putting pressure on the terrorist state. For missile strikes, for guided aerial bombs, for assaults – for this entire war. Russia must be forced to seek peace. Therefore, sanctions against Russia and individuals associated with it must be fully enforced. Frozen Russian assets must be really used for defense against Russia as soon as possible. There is a G7 decision on 50 billion for Ukraine from Russian assets. And a real mechanism is needed so that these funds can be used to support our country and people this year already. We also need to ensure there are no delays in logistics for our defense, so that our warriors can act according to the needs of the front. Currently, we have some high-profile announcements of defense packages from our partners for Ukraine that have not been fully implemented for months. We also have agreements on air defense that are still being implemented. This is especially important with the new school year approaching. I thank all our partners who truly help, all the leaders who work with us to make our defense more reliable and our positions more secure. But time equals losses. The longer we have to wait, the more damage Russia will have time to inflict. All our talks with leaders, all negotiations are focused on this – on the speed and strength of joint decisions, on fulfilling our agreements. The world must not forget for a single day that together, we are stronger than any terrorist. But to achieve this, we must do truly everything to ensure the terrorist loses. I want to especially commend our Forces today that are holding Russia accountable – right now – with the forces we have and that we are constantly strengthening. All our units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, the Defense Intelligence, the Security Service of Ukraine, who are working on our Ukrainian long-range capabilities. Everyone repelling Russian assaults on the frontlines, especially in the Donetsk region now. Everyone implementing a defense operation in the Kursk region. Thank you all, warriors! I also want to express my unwavering gratitude to all producers of our Ukrainian weapons, suppliers of all necessary components, developers – everyone truly working for Ukraine. Today, we already showcased our Palianytsia – our new missile-drone. And there will be more of such developments and weapons from us. But, of course, there are tasks that will be accomplished by Palianytsias and Neptunes, and there are tasks that can be carried out by ATACMS, Storm Shadows, SCALPs, and other weapons of partners.

I just spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. We are advancing in the Kursk region – by one to three kilometers. We have taken control of two more settlements. Active operations are underway in another settlement. We are replenishing our “exchange fund.” Thank you! We also discussed our Donetsk region separately – our defensive actions. The most attention is on Novohrodivka and Vodiane, where the assaults are most intense. I am grateful to all our units for their resilience

And one more thing. Regarding those individuals who work against our state – traitors of Ukraine who assisted Russian aggression or justify it, who fled from Ukraine to evade responsibility – our state needs clear answers regarding such people. Clear accountability. All these “comrades” must get what they deserve, no matter where they hide or where they flee. I have scheduled a meeting for tomorrow with the heads of Ukraine’s law enforcement agencies – Security Service, Interior Ministry, State Bureau of Investigation – as well as the heads of NABU, SAP, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, the Prosecutor General, and intelligence representatives. There are many issues that need to be discussed at this meeting, and conclusions that must be drawn.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost and the reason:

A year ago on this day, @_juicefighter_ was killed in an air accident, along with two other Ukrainian pilots.

Andriy, as we know, was a passionate advocate of the Ukrainian acquisition of F-16 jets, which would open a new era in the history of Ukraine’s Air Force.

He had died just a bit more and a year before his dream came true the first and F-16s finally joined the defense of the Ukrainian skies.

Now Andriy’s mom Liliya was invited by the Air Force command to touch her late son’s dream.

Since the US still won’t give Ukraine permission to use US made/supplied long range munitions or provide them, nor allow its allies and partners whose own long range munitions include US made components, the Ukrainians have made their own. Since the US had denied Ukraine the nails it needs, Ukraine has decided to make their own.

Let me generally describe what’s going to happen if, say, tomorrow, the U.S. administration lifts its absurd restrictions on the Ukrainian use of American (and not only American) tactical missiles on targets deeper within Russian territory, i.e. (yet another red line that the U.S. administration has marked for itself to try and reason with Vladimir Putin for the umpteenth time again).

1. Twitter and Telegram are tanked full of mind-blowing footage of Russian military air bases, logistics centers, munitions, and fuel depots devastated up to 300 kilometers deep in Russian territory.

2. Russian Z-channels on Telegram are absolutely puking blood and yelling HOW ARE WE TOLERATING THIS AGAIN WE GONNA LOSE THIS WAR AAARRRGGGHH.

3. Putin goes cough cough and gets incredibly interested in the daily problems of honey manufacturers in the Altai region, an official visit to which is widely reported on state propaganda TV. He personally has nothing to do with anything negative about the war; nothing unusual is happening to Oceania once again.

4. Dmitry Medvedev posts yet another alcoholic rampage on Telegram, calling Ukrainians Nazi subhuman swine. Then blacks out again until next time.

5. Jake Sullivan’s phone gets bombarded with messages from his contacts at the Russian embassy, all sending the same old magiс word “nukes”.

6. The Russian air force takes losses from new Ukrainian missile strikes, and Russian generals have to adapt to a new reality and pull aircraft out of the ATACMS effective range (including carriers of notorious gliding bombs), further stretch logistics, etc. etc. etc.

7. No more safe haven for the Russian military in its territory all along the Ukrainian border – a very crucial step has been made to effectively deny Russia’s very ability to wage its war on Ukraine instead of hopelessly trying to reason with the aggressor.

You know this is generally the way it would happen — because this is how things unfolded every single time with every single major decision to cross yet another self-restricting “red line” — and finally give Ukraine yet another instrument to win this war and bring peace back to us all.

HIMARS, armored vehicles, PATRIOTs… you name it. It’s a long list.

It’s time to get a grip finally.

Quite simply, the Biden administration is not going to provide this permission. There will, however, be consquences for the US. When this war finally ends the US may find that it needs Ukraine as an ally and partner far more than Ukraine needs the US.

The world has now watched the Biden administration be repeatedly embarrassed by Bibi Netanyahu and his extremist governing coalition. The most recent example was yesterday when someone leaked the tapes of Bibi’s horrendous meeting with former women hostages and their families. In these exchanges Bibi makes it clear that as far as he’s concerned there is no ceasefire deal on the table.

At the same time the world has watched the Biden administration vacillate, hesitate, and prevaricate in regard to Ukraine’s existential self defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion.

From The Washington Post:

Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s invasion keeps crossing President Vladimir Putin’s red lines.

Kyiv’s lightning incursion into Kursk in western Russia this month slashed through the reddest line of all — a direct ground assault on Russia — yet Putin’s response has so far been strikingly passive and muted, in sharp contrast to his rhetoric earlier in the war.

On Day One of the invasion in February 2022, Putin warned that any country that stood in Russia’s way would face consequences “such as you have never seen in your entire history,” a threat that seemed directed at countries that might arm Ukraine.

If Russia’s territorial integrity were threatened, “we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It’s not a bluff,” he said a few months later in September. “The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured — I emphasize this again — with all the means at our disposal,” making a clear reference to Russia’s nuclear weapons.

But Ukraine’s punch through Russian defenses in the first foreign invasion since World War II exposed Russia’s military flaws and laid bare Moscow’s apparently illusory red lines.

Now some are again questioning the centerpiece of Washington’s Ukraine strategy: a slow, calibrated supply of weapons to Ukraine to avoid escalating tensions with Russia that critics argue has dashed Kyiv’s chances of driving Russia out and resulted in a grinding war of attrition with massive casualties.

Ukraine’s Kursk incursion “proved the Russians are bluffing,” said Oleksandr Danylyuk, a former Ukrainian intelligence and defense official, now an associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in London. “It shuts down all of the voices of the pseudo experts … the anti-escalation guys.”

The attack was “risky,” he continued, “but it sent a very powerful signal and helped us change the narrative about Ukraine — that it is not able to win — and on the Russian red lines. Both narratives have been destroyed.”

Ukraine’s attacks have repeatedly crossed ostensible red lines: sinking Russia’s Black Sea flagship, Moskva; the 2022 Crimea Bridge blast; Storm Shadow missile attacks on the fleet headquarters in Sevastopol; the 2023 drone attacks on the Kremlin and Moscow; the assassinations of propagandists on Russian territory; and attacks on strategic air bases hundreds of miles from Ukraine.

The Western hardware being used by Ukrainian forces, HIMARS, tanks, ATACMS and F-16s, were all once red lines, too.

When Ukrainian drones struck Moscow in May 2023, hitting a Kremlin dome and closing major airports, Putin downplayed the problem, analyst Tatiana Stanovaya wrote at the time in an analysis for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Within a few months, it seemed that the Kremlin’s red lines had either never existed or had become extremely mobile.” The Kremlin claimed to be unperturbed, she wrote, “even if it flies in the face of common sense.”

It was to become a striking pattern, yet the U.S.-led policy on military aid to Ukraine has remained timid, according to many analysts.

Boris Bondarev, a Geneva-based former Russian diplomat who resigned in 2022 to protest the war, said in an interview that Washington’s fear of triggering a direct military conflict with Russia had crippled the U.S. response, leaving its goals in the war unclear and projecting American weakness to Putin and other global adversaries.

“When you put your enemy’s red lines, so to speak, as the crucial factor of your own strategy, you will always be on the losing side,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday used the Kursk incursion to argue against Washington’s restrictions that bar Kyiv’s use of Western weapons to strike deeper at military targets in Russia — such as the air bases Russia uses for its devastating glide bomb attacks.

“We are witnessing a significant ideological shift — the naive, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia, which dominated the assessment of the war by some partners, has crumbled apart these days,” Zelensky said.

While Ukraine’s Kursk incursion has changed calculations, it has not shifted the fundamental balance in the war, with Moscow continuing its focus on eastern Ukraine, closing in on the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, a key logistical hub that could pave the way for further Russian advances if it falls.

More at the link.

What the world has witnessed is US strategic malpractice and national security incoherence.

Weapons free! Make it hot!

Tatarigami has an assessment of what the Belarusians are actually doing along their border with Ukraine.

Ukrainian MFA stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine’s northern border under the guise of exercises

🧵It’s still early to draw any definitive conclusions, but a few points should be considered:Image

2/ In February 2024, Frontelligence Insight and Rochan Consulting released an analysis of the Belarusian military’s readiness, concluding that its combat units are typically manned at only 30-40% capacity, relying heavily on mobilization, with the rest filled during mobilizationImage
3/ This suggests that if Belarus was seriously preparing for a major invasion, significant mobilization efforts would be seen. For fairness, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of an attack; it’s more about the potential scale of attack if ever happens 
4/ Russia has also increased its troop presence in the eastern part of Bryansk Oblast since spring, near the Homel Oblast area, where Belarusian troops are reportedly conducting “exercises.” It definitely adds an uncomfortable dimension to the situation. 
5/ Whether this is a provocation to draw Ukrainian forces from the frontlines, a threat from Putin via Lukashenko, or a response to rumored increased Ukrainian presence remains to be seen. However, it would be surprising if these limited forces could make any serious impact

The Kursk cross border offensive:

“I don’t have a positive attitude towards the [Russian] government at all, because all their power is for themselves, and no one thinks about the people. It’s good that you brought us food and water. And you let us go shopping and everywhere else. The Ukrainian military are good guys. They took us to the stores in their cars. They are good guys. Very good.”

Residents of the city of Sudzha in Russia’s Kursk region can walk around the city, they are not detained or restricted in their movements.

📹: RBK Ukraine

Kherson Oblast:

In recent months, Russians have increasingly terrorized peaceful residents of Kherson with drone strikes. Russian drone operators are flying into the city to attack random passersby and passing cars. And with each day this becomes an even more common occurrence. As a result, it has become much more dangerous to be on the city streets.

The tweet above is supposed to be a quote tweet, but as has become more and more frequent, X’s code does not allow tweets by Ukrainians that describe and/or have imagery/video of Russian atrocities to embed. In this case it was a blurred photo of an injured Ukrainian who was working in the store that Russia targeted in Kherson. Here is both the Ukrainian and machine translated English of the original tweet from Ukrainian journalist Ivan Antypenko.

Сьогодні вночі росіяни скинули вибухівку з дрона на АЗС ОККО у Таврійському мікрорайоні. Поранені двоє працівників. Вночі сюди залетіла група ворожих БПЛА. Це дуже погана тенденція, адже зона ураження ворожими дронами розширюється фактично на все місто. Тред.

Last night, Russians dropped explosives from a drone on an OKKO filling station in the Tavriyskiy neighborhood. Two employees were wounded. At night, a group of enemy UAVs flew here. This is a very bad trend, as the enemy drone strike zone is expanding to virtually the entire city. Tred.

And here’s the text of the also censored next tweet in the thread:

З березня 2023 року внаслідок атак безпілотників на звільненій території Херсонської області загинуло 33 цивільних (1 дитина) та 322 – поранено (7 дітей).

Since March 2023, 33 civilians (1 child) have been killed and 322 injured (7 children) as a result of drone attacks in the liberated territory of Kherson region.

And the one after that:

Удари по цивільних на Херсонщині значно посилилися весною та влітку 2024-го. З середини липня по середину серпня противник вбив вісім та поранив 110 мешканців області тільки з використанням дронів. Всього було близько 3300 таких атак.

Attacks on civilians in the Kherson region intensified significantly in the spring and summer of 2024. From mid-July to mid-August, the enemy killed eight and injured 110 residents of the region using drones alone. In total, there were about 3,300 such attacks.

More from Kherson Oblast:

Pretty sure this is the Pokrovsk front given that’s where the 47th was operating:

Kharkiv:

Ukrainian media, both in Ukrainian and English, must improve their regional reporting. They are increasingly resembling local Kyiv media, which limits global awareness of events across Ukraine. Consequently, international media rarely cover these regions unless we die en mass. But not too often, because if often it is not news anymore.

Here’s the full text of the first tweet from above:

And if you ask me, what happened in Kharkiv over the past two days deserves more than just local news—it deserves a goddamn Times cover. When people in a city that gets bombed before the sirens even sound, a city everyone was burying alive this entire spring, a city often cursed by its own, take to the streets to dance, sing, and live, and declare they love for their contry, against ten million odds, knowing they could be vaporized by a russian missile at any moment but still they go… that’s a real fucking miracle.

Tonight, the russian army struck Kharkiv and Chuhuiv in the Kharkiv region with 3 missiles.

In the Slobidsky district of Kharkiv, a residential building was directly hit. Six people were injured. Five private houses were completely destroyed, and 20 more had damaged facades, broken windows.

In Industrialny district of Kharkiv, a strike hit an industrial zone. There were no casualties.

In Chuhuiv, an outbuilding in a private residential area was hit. Five people were injured, including two children.

Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Proletarsk oil depot, Rostov Oblast, Russia

It’s still burning:

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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First some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD.

Open thread!

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    21Comments

    2. 2.

      Gin & Tonic

      The Kramatorsk missile attack was clearly aimed at the Reuters team – there were six of them at the hotel, and they were the only casualties. This is entirely in line with the russian missile attack on RIA Pizza in Kramatorsk in June of 2023, which killed novelist/poet (and war crimes researcher) Viktoria Amelina, and with other, similar attacks targeting journalists and diplomats. As Adam correctly says, clear war crimes.
      The Reuters team was multi-national – Ukrainians, Brits and an American. One of the Brits, Ryan Evans, the team’s security adviser, was killed. One of the Ukrainians is seriously wounded, and the American is less-seriously wounded. He’s being assisted by DoS consular services and after immediate treatment will likely be evac-ed to the US. The attack was at night, so he escaped in his underwear, with his phone but not much else.​

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Andrya

      @Jay:   That’s appalling, not only morally but also as staggering stupidity.  putin only understands the difference between a strong response and a weak response, he has no concept of “nice”.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Jay

      Anton Gerashchenko
      @Gerashchenko_en
      6h
      Russian “Z-blogger” Roman Alekhin explains the locals of four districts of Kursk region that if they don’t evacuate on time, the Russian army will destroy them.

      Russians threatening to turn Russia into ruins.

      His post:

      “A repeat statement to residents of Korenevo, Rylsk, Glushkov, Bolshesoldatskiy districts of Kursk region, as well as all other regions where evacuation has officially been announced.

      Dear fellow residents, I ask you to make a decision about evacuation today.

      Everyone needs to understand the most important thing: if a settlement in Kursk region is under the enemy, it is now gone. Simply gone. During the counteroffensive, it will, with great probability, be wiped out from the face of the earth.”

      https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1827792091272847363#m

      Reply
    7. 7.

      oldster

      I can see that the very slow escalation of forces that the US has permitted must be frustrating and beyond frustrating for the Ukrainians, and if it were up to me then we’d let them do whatever it takes, today.

      But could we also be watching a very successful salami-slicing exercise, that has forced Putin to tolerate things that he would not have tolerated if they had been introduced more abruptly?

      I don’t want to sound too Pollyanna-ish, and I’m sure that Biden, Blinken, Austin, and Sullivan have all made many mistakes.
      But: what *would* a successful salami-slice look like, if not this?

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Chet Murthy

      @Andrya: That’s that Lenin quote?

      “Probe with the bayonet; if you find softness, proceed; if you find steel, pull back.”  If the US wants to resume relations with Russia, it needs to be from a position of US strength, not weakness, and not “niceness.”

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Chet Murthy

      @oldster: It was always foolish to adopt some sort of salami-slicing method to supplying Ukraine with arms.  If we’d given them enough arms from the outset, they could have finished this war before Russia got a chance to learn all sorts of new techniques.  As it is, they’ve learned how to defeat many of our weapons (e.g. GPS-guided shells,GLSDB, others).  It’s colossally stupid to allow your adversary a chance to learn how to defeat you.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Jay: There are R & D aligned “strategists” who dream of engineering a Kissinger 2.0, by bringing Russia “onside” to help contain the PRC. What they all forget is that Kissinger did not engineer the Sino-Soviet split, he & Nixon [much belatedly] took advantage of an existing split (& a nasty one at that).

      Furthermore, unless the US can somehow restrain Putin’s (or his successor’s) revanchist ambitions through such a “reset”, abandoning CEE to Russian influence will break apart NATO & drive the EU to seek an accommodation w/ the PRC to help counterbalance Russia.

      Finally, after all that have happened, I can’t see any regime in Moscow wholeheartedly embrace the US & be fully committed to containing the PRC. At most, Russia will behave like Modi’s India – milk the US’ obsession w/ Great Power Competition vis-à-vis the PRC to secure as much benefits as possible, w/o committing anything to the US in return.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Jay

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      And of course, all the so called ruZZian “Opposition” are corrupt Authoritarian Imperialists as well, they just don’t like who is doing it and who is profiting, even the so called “liberals”.

      At best, the so called “liberals” will be no improvement for Ukraine, the US, Europe and The West, the rightist will be 1,000 times worse.

      Back in the day, I worked for a massive Canadian timber Corp, that after the fall of the Soviet, drooled over the idea of buying a couple of Mills and tracts of forests for mere rubles on the dollar. It went well for the first year, until the guys with guns showed up.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Chris

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      It’s insane to me that none of the people arguing for using Russia as a rampart against China seem to have noticed how much Russia has no interest whatsoever in doing this.  Very much the opposite.  Been that way ever since the end of the Cold War.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Chris: Putin or successor might agree to pretend to align w/ the US to contain the PRC, if the US hands CEE to Russia on a platter. That is pretty much the only way the US can “outbid” the PRC. Even then, it will largely be a pretense, since it would be blatantly obvious to anyone in Moscow that the US is trying to use Russia as a pawn.

      We are already seeing this dynamic at play w/ India. It’s like the US & parts of Europe have transferred the naiveté (if that’s what it was) they once held w/ the PRC during the late Cold War to Modi’s India today, only now w/ even greater credulity (because India is deemed “democratic”, whereas Deng’s & Jiang’s PRC was always hard authoritarian).

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Jay

      @Chris:

      as we know, the US Government, the Political Parties and the NatSec state is both compromised and penetrated by the ruZZians. ruZZian whispers to the Glasnost era “experts” is probably enough to keep the idea firmly implanted in their asses.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Jay

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      Gullibility,………

      eg, Bibi saying one thing in English to US political audiences and saying the opposite in Hebrew to the Israeli Reich.

      Translations are readily available, but the US sticks to their delusions.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Chet Murthy

      @Jay: I remember back when Brexit stuff was still being negotiated by the Tories, over and over Chris Grey (of Brexitblog) would marvel that Tories would say one thing domestically and another in Brussels, expecting that somehow their EU counterparts wouldn’t, y’know, read and listen in English to what they’d said back home.  The Tory negotiators really did expect that the EU was that dumb.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Another Scott

      Something I came across this evening at Jamestown.org (from July 15):

      Russia Struggles to Counter Upgrade of NATO-Ukraine Compact
      Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 106
      By: Pavel K. Baev

      […]

      The Washington Summit celebrating the 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was destined to be among the high marks in the 2024 political calendar. Moscow sought to downplay the importance of this event and portray it as a major escalation of the threat to global security. Such a heavy spin on two contradictory messages is a typical pattern of Russian propaganda. While some commentators compare NATO with the mighty dinosaurs of the past, doomed to extinction by changes in the political climate, others describe it as a monster that needs to be confronted and slayed (RIAC; Izvestiya, July 11). Other Kremlin propagandists present the summit’s proceedings as an orchestrated show of unity, which is eroding and cracking (Kommersant, July 10). Only scant mentions were given to the Ukraine Compact, signed by 23 states and the European Union, which effectively canceled the Kremlin’s design for “neutral” Ukraine (RBC, July 12). The signing of this compact demonstrates that Western states are behind Ukraine in the war and will continue to provide aid, even if it is not all that Kyiv hopes for, showing Russia that its allies in the West continue to dwindle.

      Besides declaring Ukraine’s “irreversible” path to NATO, the summit has yielded many practical decisions on building up Western military capabilities, and Moscow has been hard-pressed to find responses. Primary emphasis has been on sustaining the tempo of several offensive operations in Ukraine to maintain the strategic initiative (Republic.ru, July 10). This urge to demonstrate Russia’s dominance results in heavy casualties, which have reached the highest mark since the start of the war (Mediazona, July 5; see EDM, July 10; The Moscow Times, July 12). Russian forces have been wasting more soldiers as fresh cannon fodder and at a rate faster than the increasingly expensive recruitment. Public support for continuing the offensives has registered a new low, while the preference for starting peace talks has reached a high of 58 percent (Levada.ru, July 4; Re: Russia; see EDM, July 10).

      The sociology of how Moscow’s war against Ukraine is hurting ordinary people may not be particularly convincing for Western policymakers. The Russian missile strike that hit the children’s hospital in Kyiv on July 8, however, certainly made an impression (Meduza, July 10). While it seems that the famous Ohmatdyt Children’s Hospital was targeted deliberately, questions still abound. The purpose of the strike was likely to prove that the X-101 cruise missiles launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers can break through missile defenses provided by MIM-104 Patriot batteries (Novaya gazeta Europe, July 10). This capability underpins the planning of massive Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian air bases where the squadrons of newly arrived F-16 fighters will allegedly be hosted (Meduza, July 1). A sequence of such strikes on Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava region earlier this month destroyed and damaged several Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jets (Rossiiskaya gazeta, July 5).

      For NATO, the Russian intent gives fresh impetus to not only expanding the deliveries of various surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine, which should protect major Ukrainian cities and the key airbases (see EDM, June 20, 27, July 3; TopWar.ru, July 12). It also raises the issue of granting Ukraine permission to use Western long-range strike capabilities for attacks on Russian bases deep within Russia’s territory, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy argued at the Washington Summit (Kommersant, July 13). Ukraine delivered several such strikes using its own drones, for instance, on the Morozovsk base in Rostov region, but only high-precision targeting on stationary aircraft can ensure an effective hit due to the small payloads on long-range drones (NV.ua, June 14; Newsru.com, June 15).

      Another issue is the possibility of servicing and repairing the F-16 fighters on bases in Poland and Romania to be moved to forward bases in Ukraine for performing combat missions (MK.ru, July 11). The security agreement signed by Zelenskyy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on the eve of the NATO summit may allow for such basing. The proposition for intercepting Russian missiles approaching Poland over Ukrainian territory is also on the table (Current Time, July 10). Moscow has already signaled its ire with the agreement, and it is likely even more anxious about the plan for recruiting and training a combat brigade from Ukrainian refugees currently residing in Poland (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 11).

      What worries Russia even more is the US-German agreement on the experimental and permanent deployment of several long-range weapon systems to US bases in Germany (Kommersant, July 11). Even if the new hypersonic Dark Eagle ground-launched missile may not be ready for deployment before 2026, the shift in Germany’s security stance is a significant setback for Moscow’s hopes of exploiting divisions in NATO (RIAC, July 11). That shift is further confirmed by a deal between Germany, France, Italy, and Poland on developing a new long-range cruise missile, which was also announced during the NATO summit (Rossiiskaya gazeta, July 11). If Russia had sought to derail this deal through their recent assassination attempt on Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, the leading German defense corporation, the Kremlin’s denials are insufficient for camouflaging the fiasco of this plot (Svoboda.org, July 11; Izvestiya, July 12).

      Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan for stirring anxiety and discord in the Western coalition by issuing vague threats and resorting to nuclear blackmail is not working. His persistent “advice” on raising stakes further involves risks he is not prepared to take (RIA-Novosti, July 11). Putin’s only interlocutor among Western leaders is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who visited Kyiv, Moscow, and Beijing before traveling to Washington and described his impressions in a succinct letter to EU leadership (Carnegie Politika, July 5). Neither Orban nor Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who still expects Putin to make the long-promised visit to Ankara, expressed any dissent at the Washington Summit on key issues including the establishment of NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine in replacing the Ramstein format (Izvestiya; NV.ua, July 11).

      Moscow’s long war generates sustained pressure on Western policy, in which opinions on proper responses to Russia’s aggression are inevitably diverse and even polarized. What the Washington Summit made apparent, nevertheless, is that the mainstream political position on expanding and upgrading the support for Ukraine is solid, very much against expectations in Moscow. Another trend that goes against Russian predictions is the strengthening of European contributions to the collective efforts, not because of demands from the US leadership but due to a broader understanding of the scope of threat emanating from Putin’s Russia. “Frontline” states, including Poland, Estonia, or Norway, are taking the lead in assuming and sharing the responsibility for ensuring Ukraine’s victory. Russia can neither inhibit nor sabotage this solidarity.

      While perhaps overly rosy, and perhaps too heavily invested in VVP is doomed framing, I found it interesting. (See the original for embedded links.)

      (I’ve not heard of the “Jamestown Foundation” before – they were founded by William Geimer and people in Reagan’s administration, so keep that in mind.)

      The Kursk incursion started on August 6.

      We’ll see what happens.

      Slava Ukraini!!

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    19. 19.

      Jay

      @YY_Sima Qian:

      @Chet Murthy:

      eg. Maria Butina. A “gun rights” advocate from ruZZia where there are no gun rights, but illegal guns are easy to come by, compromising the NRA, a couple billionaires and a bunch of ReThugs believing their own delusions that ruZZia was a GunHumper’s utopia.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      lee

      I’m glad this was today’s topic as I been meaning to ask about it.

      I do have a question:

      At what point in time would Ukraine been able to effectively use anyone’s long distance weapons?

      I wouldn’t think 2014 when this started (just because of training and logistics), but certainly by the time of re-invasion. I could see holding them off initially to make sure orcs didn’t get a hold of them but yeah it is long overdue to bring the boom to Russia.

      It would have been pretty awesome if Ukraine could have hit the bunched up armor 23 Feb 22.

      Reply

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