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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 921: Kharkiv!!!!!! And Sumy!!!!!!

War for Ukraine Day 921: Kharkiv!!!!!! And Sumy!!!!!!

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Rosie is doing fine. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Kharkiv has been under attack all day. Including a Russian Iskander missile double tap on first responders. Part of the reason this keeps happening is that NOT A SINGLE DAMN PIECE OF AIR DEFENSE that was promised at the NATO summit, nor that has been in any US announcement of military supplies for Ukraine since they finally got the Ukraine aid supplemental to pass, has actually been sent to Ukraine!

Germany just made an update and then announced the update of everything it’s sent to Ukraine. The only air defense system still on that list is the IRIS-T it sent a long time ago.

There is clearly a logistics break down. I have my own suspicions about what that is, but since I can’t prove them, I’ll keep them to myself for now.

Because the Danish PM has now told us, we now know that she wanted to send her F-16s to Ukraine in FEB 2022! But she was prevented from doing so by Denmark’s allies. Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has confirmed that Denmark does not restrict the use of F-16 fighter jets that it has provided to Ukraine.

Source: Mette Frederiksen at the GLOBSEC conference in Prague, reports European Pravda

Details: Mette Frederiksen believes that Ukraine received Western fighter jets later than it should have.

Quote: “I’m sorry that it took so long. I was ready to deliver them from the beginning of the war. But, once again, we had quite long discussions about whether it was a good idea or not.”

Frederiksen did not specify who exactly was holding up the delivery of the F-16s but expressed her belief that the task remains to ensure that Ukraine receives all the weapons it needs from the West.

Quote: “You cannot win the war without military equipment. The only way of winning this war is to give Ukraine what they need.”

Frederiksen also confirmed that Denmark has no restrictions on using donated weapons, including aircraft.

Quote: “We are not putting restrictions on F-16s. It has to be according to international law. We have given these jets with no restrictions, then according to international law.”

Background: The Czech president also supported the use of F-16s against targets in Russia. The Netherlands, which also provided the fighter jets, is not against using F-16s for strikes against Russia.

There is only one state that could prevent Denmark from sending its F-16s to Ukraine or place limitations on their usage by the Ukrainians is the United States. This is because of the end use agreements in the foreign military sales contracts between the US and Denmark that dictate what Denmark, as the purchaser, may or may not do with them.

Here’s the video of her remarks if you’d like to watch them.

While I’ll have the rest of the Kharkiv material after President Zelenskyy’s address, for want of the same nail combined with the lack of a spine by President Biden and his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, the Russian’s just dropped a missile on an orphanage in Sumy!

❗️A 7-year-old boy and a 13-year-old girl are among the victims as Russians have just bombed a center for psychological rehabilitation of children and an orphanage in the city of Sumy.

Ukraine is forbidden by it’s allies from striking the Russian airfieilds and launchers where these attacks originate.

Video credit: Suspilne

And in just the past 20 minutes (it’s 6:05 PM EDT when I type this) there was another significant strike in Kharkiv!

More on this after the jump as well.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Long-Range Capabilities Are Key to Ending This War – Address by the President

1 September 2024 – 21:26

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, Russia has once again brutally attacked Kharkiv. As of now, nearly fifty people have been injured. Everyone is receiving the necessary assistance. Rescuers continue to clear the rubble, as there are reports of people trapped beneath it. The targets were ordinary civilian structures – a shopping mall, a sports palace, and residential buildings. Each strike on Kharkiv and other cities and villages proves the correctness of our tactics, particularly in the Kursk region – we must push the war back from where it was brought to Ukraine, and not just into Russia’s border regions. The terrorist state must feel what war is. We are working to ensure that as many Russian military facilities, logistics hubs, and critical components of their war economy as possible fall within the reach of our weapons. Currently, our drones are making this possible, and I thank everyone in Ukraine who is involved in developing and producing drones, as well as those working on our missile program. I also extend my gratitude to our state’s foreign policy team, who are persuading our partners that long-range capabilities are key to ending this war. With our drones and missiles, we can accomplish part of the missions. But true peace – a real end to this war – is a complex task. To force Russia into peace, to move them from deceitful rhetoric about negotiations to taking steps to end the war, to clear our land of occupation and occupiers, we need effective tools. I know that in these days and weeks, our friends around the world, journalists spreading the truth about this war, a significant number of world leaders, civil society leaders, and politicians are emphasizing how crucial it is to have authorization for long-range strikes and the corresponding long-range missiles and shells to bring peace closer and save lives. This depends on President Biden, Prime Minister Starmer, President Macron, Chancellor Scholz, and others. I thank everyone who is convincing the world to be strong and ultimately defeat Russian terror. Not a single Russian missile, not a single Russian strike should be left without a fair response – a response with weapons, sanctions, the right policies and economic support for Ukraine, and a response with justice for Russia.

Today I have signed several new sanctions decisions – the NSDC sanctions. Almost 150 entities – legal entities and individuals – that ensure the operation of Russia’s aviation infrastructure. Additionally, another package of sanctions on collaborators – those who have chosen to work for evil and for war. It is the duty of all Ukrainian representatives to ensure that our sanctions are synchronized with global ones. There was also a report today from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, focusing primarily on the Pokrovsk direction. On our actions to repel Russian strikes there and to destroy as many of the occupier’s forces as possible. Additionally, there was an update on the operation in the Kursk region – each day contributes to replenishing our “exchange fund.” I thank every one of our units for this!

And one more thing. I want to express my gratitude to the rescuers working in the Kharkiv region – all the staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region. In particular, I want to thank Yurii Siryi, Eduard Sokolov, Serhii Bilous, Oleksandr Chelak, and Volodymyr Mykhailychenko. I also want to highlight Mykyta Ivaniuk, a police captain working in the Kharkiv region, and Oleh Sheremet, an ambulance feldsher, who have distinguished themselves in helping our people. I am grateful to you and all your colleagues! Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Russia is once again terrorizing Kharkiv, striking civilian infrastructure and the city itself.

As of now, there are over 30 wounded. All necessary forces have been deployed for the rescue operation.

But to stop this terror, all necessary global forces must be mobilized. What’s required isn’t extraordinary effort, but the sufficient courage of leaders – the courage to give Ukraine everything it needs to defend itself.

Here’s the tally for just the past week:

The reason:

Sumy Oblast:

There is no end to the depravity of putin and his forces. It must take a sadistic pleasure in striking a center for social and psychological rehabilitation of children and an orphanage on September 1. If that was not enough,
the building is located in a densely populated residential area
A 7-year-old and a 13-year-old have been wounded tonight in #Sumy. It is not enough to orphan Ukrainian children. He must maim and kill them, too.

In putin’s sick mind, this must be a retaliation for Kursk. putin has no problem crossing all kinds of red lines because he knows that Ukraine is going to strike back at schools and hospitals. Because Ukraine is expected to observe international humanitarian law if it wants to continue receiving the western weapons. And I am totally FOR Ukraine observing international law.
But the red lines look increasingly unfair. putin makes sure that we feel it every single day in the last week how unfair they are.

I was looking for a legit source on the below for yesterday’s update, but couldn’t find anything until now:

Kharkiv:

Here’s the video of the double tap Iskander strike in Kharkiv earlier today. It’s at the seven second mark of the video:

Kharkiv today.

How many more people have to die so that “anonymous officials” finally stop playing 5D geopolitical Kissinger chess and trying to appease Putin by ensuring a safety zone for Russian air bases and bombers?

Everybody understands that preventing Ukraine from combating Russia’s bombing and missile campaigns is beyond absurd.

They know this is absurd.

This is an absurd situation that has barely ever taken place in human history before.

Yet, the fear of that bald, fish-eyed old KGB rat and the reluctance toward making solid decisions and demonstrating proper leadership is so appalling that… they prefer to just wait for Jesus to get back on earth, or else God forbid something happens.

The same goes for the Ukrainian ability to target Iskander-M missile carriers (such as the one delivering the strike in the video) deeper in Russian territory.

ATACMS?

What does it take to give Ukraine some more PATRIOT PAC-3s?

What is that in comparison to saving countless lives and letting a nation under threat of extermination fight back and survive?

Kurahove:

Vuhledar:

Pokrovsk:

From Maria Avdeeva’s reporting at The Atlantic Council:

Evacuation efforts are currently accelerating in eastern Ukraine’s Pokrovsk as the Russian military draws closer. Residents are fleeing amid fears their hometown will soon become the latest in a growing list of Ukrainian cities reduced to rubble by Putin’s invading army.

Pokrovsk has long been an important Russian objective. Located on a crucial road connecting eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk province with neighboring Dnipro region, the city serves as a key logistical hub for the Ukrainian military. Russian troops have been steadily moving toward Pokrovsk for some months as Vladimir Putin seeks to consolidate his grip on the surrounding area. If the strategically important city falls, it will undermine Ukraine’s defenses while potentially serving as a gateway for further Russian gains.

Ukraine’s leaders are well aware of the stakes but have so far been unable to stop the Russian offensive. There has been considerable speculation that the recent Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was primarily intended to ease the pressure on Pokrovsk by forcing the Kremlin to redeploy forces. If this was the plan, it has not yet succeeded. Instead, the Russian army appears to be concentrating more troops for the push toward Pokrovsk, and is advancing with increasing speed.

With the front lines of the war now less than ten kilometers from the city, Pokrovsk residents find themselves confronted by the same nightmare scenarios and impossible choices experienced by huge numbers of Ukrainians since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion two and a half years ago. The mandatory evacuation of families with children has been ordered, while a twenty-hour daily curfew has been imposed. Leaving Pokrovsk means abandoning homes, possessions, family members, and all that is familiar. Staying may well prove deadly.

Prior to the war, Pokrovsk had a population of around sixty thousand. By the final week of August, this figure had dropped to approximately half the prewar total. Thousands continue to leave every day. The roads out of Pokrovsk are jammed with cars loaded up to the roof as families evacuate with whatever they can carry. Local institutions such as hospitals and banks are shutting down and preparing to close. Those who have yet to join the exodus are stockpiling water, groceries, and humanitarian aid, while bracing for the worst.

The process of leaving Pokrovsk can be fraught with danger. Evacuation teams try to keep civilian cars on established routes in a bid to maintain a degree of security, but reports of Russian drone and bombing attacks are growing. The thunder of artillery fire in the distance adds to the sense of urgency and uncertainty.

In the city itself, it is possible to encounter extremes of distress, despair, courage, and compassion at virtually every turn. On Samarska Street, half the houses now stand empty. When I visited, one elderly lady was in the process of locking up her home while a car packed with her worldly belongings waited outside. There were also signs of daily life as remaining residents bicycled past to get water from a nearby pipe or visit the local store. Some of those leaving remained defiant, insisting their departure was just a temporary measure. Others claimed they would stay and placed their hopes in Ukraine’s ability to defend the city.

More at the link.

Not sure where these are, but I think the first is the Pokrovsk direction given where the 45th has been reported operating and the rest may be in the Kursk cross border offensive or they may be in Donetsk.

Here’s the full video:

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Moscow:

Oh wow, so you’re telling me striking critical infrastructure is a game two can play?

Ukraine has had yet another massive drone attack on Russia, one of the largest ever.

Given the fact that Russian air defenses are so weak in areas beyond immediate war zones (even in Moscow!), Russia should expect a very hot winter of fire and smoke.

Live by the sword, don’t be surprised to get your butt kicked hard by the sword.

There are 45 air defense systems pinned on Hoffman’s map. For the city of Moscow. Ukraine has at least three, but not more than five Patriot batteries and one German Iris-T, plus whatever legacy Russian air defense systems still operational to cover the entire country. That’s the asymmetry here.

Here are Tatarigami’s thoughts on the Ukrainian drone strike on the Russian petroleum infrastructure in Moscow:

One of the most frequently raised questions following Ukraine’s strikes on industrial or oil infrastructure is: “How will this lead to a victory for Ukraine?”

The answer is straightforward. Viewed in isolation, each individual action – be it sanctions on a specific Russian bank, the liberation of a small village, or the destruction of a single oil refinery – does not win the war by itself.

Victory is achieved through a series of operational successes, each built upon tactical victories. When neither side can secure a clear and decisive victory, such as by capturing the enemy’s capital and changing the government, the war shifts into a phase where endurance, willpower, social fatigue, and resourcefulness are tested.

Incremental changes, while seemingly minor in the moment, can eventually lead to significant shifts. The impact of each action might not be immediately visible, but every effort that undermines Russian economic stability and its capacity to sustain the war contributes to Ukraine’s broader strategic advantage. Predicting which action will be the tipping point is almost impossible, but the decisive effect of the final “drop” relies on the cumulative impact of all preceding actions.

This does not imply that every tactical victory will automatically translate into operational and consequently, strategic success. However, using a $500,000 drone to destroy an industrial facility that generates $50 million annually has a lasting impact. When such actions are scaled and repeated regularly, they can exert considerable pressure on Russia, making the continuation of such a costly war increasingly difficult.

Here’s the full text of the tweet that Tatarigami is responding to:

I’ll add 2 points.
1. Ukraine was able to maintain sea traffic out of Odessa by attacking Russian ships, and then creating an arrangement where both sides stand down. If Ukraine can attack Russian industrial facilities, they can translate that into a similar arrangement.
2. Ukraine needs to develop a long term deterrence strategy against further wars independent of NATO. Developing these long term strike capabilities are critical for that.

Tver Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

65Comments

  1. 1.

    hrprogressive

    Hypothetically speaking, suppose Ukraine and/or other NATO countries just said “To hell with it” and started using F16’s or other armaments in whatever way the Ukrainian Armed Forces deemed necessary to stop the attacks on their supposedly sovereign soil.

    What, exactly, beyond “not sending any more gear” that already isn’t being sent, could/would the US “do about it”?

    Not exactly about to “go to war” with their own NATO Allies, or the Ukrainians, so…

    I am not suggesting such a move would not have potentially “dire consequences” down the line, but I am curious if there’s a breaking point that everyone but the US might reach and, you know, what the US could realistically “do about it” short of take their ball and go home and let the rest of the world defend freedom without them.

    Not trying to be contrarian, I legitimately wonder what such consequences there could be in such a scenario.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    Ukraine needs to develop a long term deterrence strategy against further wars independent of NATO

    Yes. Nuclear weapons. It’s the only answer.

  4. 4.

    Chet Murthy

    @hrprogressive: There’s an old saw (I forget who coined it) that amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.  I remember reading in a history of the Punic Wars that some ancient Roman historian wrote that the singular qualifying trait of an excellent general was that he could organize a citywide fete (party).

    Ukraine would not violate the rules under which it is given weapons because to do so is to risk the cutoff of that logistical tail.  And that’s death. [there is something related one might say about Israel, but that is off-topic, so I won’t go there]

  5. 5.

    Chet Murthy

    @Gin & Tonic: Indeed, and this is also part of why Jake Sullivan is a fucking idiot.  He’s guaranteeing a more-dangerous world for the US and its interests.  Just a fucking idiot.

    ETA: *regardless* of whether Ukraine wins, there will be independent nuclear deterrents in Europe, in East Asia.  And of course, in the Middle East.

  8. 8.

    hrprogressive

    @Chet Murthy: ​
     

    True, but I highly suspect that the real reason for the holdup isn’t “logistics” it’s “strategic delays because we don’t actually want Ukraine to win”.

    So, if those are the “logistics” we’re talking about, then yeah. Not sure why they wouldn’t be talked about.

  11. 11.

    VeniceRiley

    Biden’s biggest, most infuriating failure is his NatSec team. I hope the ghost of Madeline Albright haunts them to the end of their days

  12. 12.

    Chet Murthy

    @hrprogressive: Ah, ok, I was answering your question about why Ukraine (and by extension, the rest of NATO) doesn’t tell the US to pound sand: they all rely on the US for their defense, and Ukraine esp. for weapons.  And this was by design: the US designed the Western Alliance so that no NATO member or members could act independently, -period-.  -Period-.  Designed that way.  This allows the US to use its control of the weapons pipeline and expeditionary capacity to control everything NATO does.  And of course, to set the conditions under which  Ukraine uses the weapons we supply.

    Now, as to why there’s a holdup, I don’t know, but as you say, it’s not logistics: the US is perfectly capable of rushing more bombs to Israel so they can continue their war against Gaza’s children.  No  problem there.  It ain’t logistical capacity.

  13. 13.

    Ksmiami

    Ukraine could tell Biden to just shut it. It’s not his cities being destroyed. I’m done with Biden on this. And I’ve been one of his biggest supporters.

  14. 14.

    Another Scott

    @Chet Murthy: There’s logistics, and there’s logistics.

    JustSecurity.org (from January):

    WRSA-I is a U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) stockpile located in Israel, and the equipment stored in it is available for use by DoD or transfer to a foreign country. Although transfers from the stockpile are generally understood to be intended for times of war or emergency, there is no specific legal requirement to that effect. There is no unclassified, publicly available itemization of what is in the stockpile, which is reported to consist of multiple warehouses. When adding equipment to WRSA-I, DoD can consider potential partner requirements, although DoD does not procure new equipment to maintain the stockpile, instead replenishing it from existing stocks.

    Israel benefits from the U.S. positioning the stockpile in its territory because, in cases of emergencies, it cuts down on the normal time required for U.S. procurement and delivery processes. Stocks remain under DoD title until transferred and Israel pays for the maintenance of WRSA-I storage facilities and for the transportation of defense articles to and from the stock. Whenever defense articles are transferred, they must be paid for by the recipient country or U.S. appropriations.

    I was glancing at FlightRadar24.com earlier today and they showed a UK A400M leaving some site in Poland fairly close to the border (I don’t recall the airport, unfortunately). While I obviously don’t know what, if anything was on the plane, there are probably operational reasons why we don’t hear more about deliveries. (Yes, Ukraine needs more stuff and needs the ability to use stuff as they see fit for their defense.)

    FWIW.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  15. 15.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott: I could be misremembering,  but wasn’t there a ruckus about the fact that the US was unwilling to supply Ukraine out of NATO stockpiles in Europe ?  I forget.

  17. 17.

    Adam L Silverman

    @hrprogressive: The US could stop selling to the states that broke their end use agreements. That’s what’s keeping our allies and partners from doing the right thing. That, and as is the case with Germany and Olaf Scholtz, cowardice.

  19. 19.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: My guess is they are working very diligently and very quietly towards breakout. I expect this is part of Major General Budanov’s portfolio as his directorate does NOT leak.

  20. 20.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: Nothing that is in those stockpiles is being removed except for use by the Israelis. Material can only be removed with concurrence of the Israeli government, which is why Israel’s not used in a decade Hawk air defense systems and munitions remain in those storehouses and not transferred to Ukraine.

  22. 22.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I can understand the Biden’s team’s rationale for being slow in giving Ukraine approval for attacking targets w/in Russia, although by now that thought process has been proven to be clearly far too conservative. I do not understand the reasoning for slow walking air defense to Ukraine. There is not much offensive potential in AD, except to contest Russian air superiority some distance into Russian airspace. However, Ukraine will clearly prioritize protecting population centers & strategic infrastructure, outside of the occasional ambush against RuAF AEW & EW aircraft. Is the Biden Administration afraid that Ukraine might shoot down a Russian airliner by mistake?

  23. 23.

    Another Scott

    @Chet Murthy:  I have vague recollections about that.

    @Adam L Silverman:

    My poorly specified point was that DoD stocks inside a country at war much easier to release and distribute than shipping DoD stocks from other US bases, or NATO stocks from other countries (that have 32-country NATO bureaucracy on top of DoD bureaucracy).  The logistics are different, even if the widgets are hypothetically effectively identical.

    Not that DoD stocks in Israel was going to be going to Ukraine.  (Though, of course, that, and the Israeli Patriots in storage going to Ukraine, would make a lot of sense.)

    Of course, Israel was getting stuff flown in very quickly as well, so everything they need is not in DoD stocks in-country.  But I wonder if our finding out about that, and the relative dearth of information about deliveries to Ukraine, was a conscious decision by Biden to let bad actors in the region know that we were going to move heaven and earth to keep Israel safe so they shouldn’t try anything.  One of Israel’s many benefits from having such a strong treaty with the USA.  Making similar timely  announcements about equipment deliveries to Ukraine may have tactical costs…

    Anyway, my $0.02.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Any reason the US cannot broker the transfer of the recently retired ROC (TWese) Hawk batteries, which had undergone some modernization, to Ukraine. It can be done via the appropriate middlemen to minimize PRC ire. They can’t be worse than the S-200s that Ukraine is still making do w/. If TWese origin Hawks are too sensitive, then how about retired SK ones. Shouldn’t face so much opposition in Seoul, w/ the recent consummation of the Russo-NK mutual defense treaty, the attendant intensification of Russo-NK military collaboration, & a rightwing reactionary in the Blue House.

  26. 26.

    Gin & Tonic

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​

    Ukraine might shoot down a Russian airliner by mistake?

    Ha! If I’m not mistaken, today is the anniversary of the day the USSR shot down KAL007.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chet Murthy: Ukraine already operates Soviet era S-200 & S-300 batteries, the same ones that Russia uses. If Russia wants to do another MH17 false flag & try to blame it on Ukraine, which Putin is more than capable of doing, it is an easier sell to use their own S-300s & park one of the battery in Belarus, close to the border w/ Ukraine. Missile fragments collected from any crash investigation would quickly establish the type of missile fired. Giving Ukraine more Patriots PAC-3s &  IRIS-Ts (the latter is only medium range, anyway) to defend itself do not raise that risk.

  28. 28.

    Chet Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: I meant something more like Russia saying:

    “If you allow Ukraine to attack our backfield, we will attack Ukraine’s backfield, so don’t fuck with us!”

    Then Biden has to decide whether he’s going to call Russia’s bluff.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Gin & Tonic: The downing of KE007 was tragic, reckless policy by the Soviet AD & reckless behavior by the KAL007 pilot. Of course, that was still a very different SK in ’83. The rightwing military dictatorship then running the country was quite capable of sacrificing its own civilians in pursuit of geopolitical aims.

    I was only being half serious, but if the Biden team is really slow walking AD to Ukraine because of fears that Ukraine might down a Russian airliner by mistake, then they are far too patronizing & chauvinistic.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chet Murthy: Ukraine is already doing a good job attacking Russia’s backfield, & Russia has never been inhibited from attacking Ukraines. So far, Russia has not attacked Ukrainian civil aviation (AFAIK, not in flight at least, might have targeted airports), & Ukraine has certainly not targeted Russian civil aviation. PAC-3s & IRIS-Ts are already in Ukrainian hands, giving them more does not change the escalation risk factor one way or the other.

  31. 31.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: The Hawks are not Patriots. They’re a now out of date legacy system. But for what Ukraine needs, they’d be helfpul.

    Part of the problem is that we just don’t have the Patriots. There were never a lot of them. Raytheon can only make about a dozen or so of them a year. The other part of that problem is we promise what we don’t have or can’t supply.

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Chet Murthy:

    There is no civil air traffic over Ukraine or large parts of the Black Sea.

    They are just afraid of ruZZian “Red Lines”, even though nobody has ever found one.

    They don’t want Ukraine to “win”, they don’t want ruZZia to “lose”, and they see “normalizing trade relationships” with ruZZia as being more important than defending democracy.

    They would trade Latvia for Gazprom making a profit again in a heart beat.

  33. 33.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: I have no idea. I really don’t. It’s either someone has decided that they won’t actually be of use to Ukraine, they’re not actually in any condition to be used and it would take too long and too much money to bring them up to spec, there’s not enough stockpiled ammo, they just don’t want to send them for “reasons,” or, most likely, some combination of the above.

  35. 35.

    Chet Murthy

    @YY_Sima Qian: “Russia has never been inhibited from attacking Ukraines. ”

    By “Ukraine’s backfield” I mean NATO countries.

    ETA: I wanna be clear that I don’ think Russia would actually do it.  But threaten it?  Sure.  And for a certain kind of lily-livered person who is also hankering for an end to this war so they can go back to business-as-usual, I can see this as being a credible-enough threat.

  36. 36.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: From Defense News back in April:

    MILAN — Ukraine’s requests for more long-range air defense systems to repel Russian attacks highlight a weak spot in the production capabilities of Kyiv’s allies, according to analysts.

    As Russian forces have ramped up attacks on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure in recent weeks, calls for defense systems have grown increasingly desperate, leading Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to tell Western leaders, in a late-March interview with Politico: “Give us the damn Patriots.”

    He was referring to the suite of sensors, launchers and interceptors, made by Raytheon-RTX of the United States, that has formed the backbone of U.S. and allied air-defense architectures for decades.

    President Volodymyr Zelenskyy doubled down on the request shortly thereafter, articulating a concrete need. “I can say that to cover Ukraine completely in the future, it is preferable to have 25 Patriot systems, with 6-8 batteries each,” Zelenskyy was quoted as saying by the Ukrainian online new website Kyiv Independent.

    The figure caught some defense experts by surprise.

    “This is a huge number – the United States only has 15 Patriot battalions. There is no way that Ukraine will have 25,” Mark F. Cancian, senior adviser at the Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Defense News.

    In a recent interview with Defense News, Tom Laliberty, Raytheon’s president of land and air defense systems said that the company is currently able to produce 12 Patriot fire units per year.

    That pace means it would take years to cover Ukrainian demands alone, and that’s not counting the manufacturer’s commitments to make systems for the rest of the global Patriot customer base.

    Still, there may be some slack in diverting new production hardware or, in the case of Germany, cobbling together an additional system from parts in the maintenance cycle.

    Berlin announced on April 13 that the government would donate one fire unit in addition to two previously delivered.

    Other Patriot users, like the Netherlands, believe they have already reached the bottom of the barrel, saying that giving away any more would leave them exposed and break troops’ training cycles on the equipment.

    More at the link.

  37. 37.

    Mike in DC

    25 x 8 launchers x 16 tubes per launcher = 3200 missiles.  Or at 4 per launcher, 800 missiles.

    I’m pretty sure that’s enough to protect the entire country.

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I too am somewhat surprised at the ineptitude of Russian integrated air defense system (IADS) for defense of territorial airspace, which was deemed to be very advanced before the current war, must be concerning to all of the users of Russian SAM systems (the PRC, India, Vietnam, Algeria, etc.). The PRC has many domestic alternatives that have by now largely supplanted Russian systems, but India is almost wholly reliant.

    The S-300s/400s are designed for long range AD, against high altitude & relatively fast moving targets (supersonic or high sub-sonic speeds), w/ some anti-SRBM capability. They are not optimized to engage slow, small & low flying targets. Then again, western, like most of Ukraine, is pretty flat, not many terrain features for Ukraine drones & missiles to hide in en route to their targets.

    Russia has seemed to lack the diversity of advanced phased array AD radars, as well as the medium range SAMs, that can serve to plug the gaps between the S-300/400 batteries & cover the low altitude blind spots. Russian microelectronics (& thus active electronically scanned phase array radars as well as signal processing) have largely been left in the dust by the West & the PRC. Russian arms manufacturers tend to boast about the claimed detection range of its radars, realized largely through raw power output & against non-stealthy targets. Short range point defense are left almost entirely to the relatives limited number of Pantsir S1/2 systems, lacking something in between. Unlike the PRC, NK, or Ukraine now, Russian has not mobilized (& is probably incapable of mobilizing) a large territorial defense force to man a dense network of anti-aircraft artillery pieces & heavy machine guns to intercept the slow & low flying (& in all honesty not that sophisticated) Ukrainian drones.

    The Russian IADS may not be so integrated, after all.

  41. 41.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chet Murthy: Ah, OK, now I understand. Russia threatening to attack NATO outright (as opposed to grey zone) for NATO providing more military aid to Ukraine? Biden should call that bluff.

  43. 43.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: I too am somewhat surprised at the ineptitude of Russian integrated air defense system (IADS) for defense of territorial airspace, must be concerning to all of the users of Russian SAM systems

    Well, those other countries may not have a pervasive top to bottom kleptocratic culture.  Which could reduce the numbers of critical parts being stolen from their installations.

  45. 45.

    Gin & Tonic

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​

    So far, Russia has not attacked Ukrainian civil aviation (AFAIK, not in flight at least, might have targeted airports)

    There has been no civil aviation in Ukraine since February 2022. And, yes, airports have been targeted. Most major civil airports would require substantial reconstruction to be usable after the war’s end.

  49. 49.

    hrprogressive

    @Adam L Silverman: ​
     

    Sure, but, like, in a hypothetical scenario where every other NATO signatory tells the USA to get bent, if the USA decides to no longer sell/share/whatever arms with all those allies…

    Who else they gonna sell to?

    Surely the military industrial complex would be apoplectic if the USA decided to cut off its entire customer base except, apparently, Israel, which is the one customer that long since should have been cut off.

    Maybe I am underestimating how necessary US arms are and/or overestimating what the rest of NATO could collectively put together without those arms.

    If that’s the case, I guess it is what it is, which is incredibly shitty.

  50. 50.

    Jay

    @hrprogressive:

    Maybe I am underestimating how necessary US arms are and/or overestimating what the rest of NATO could collectively put together without those arms.

    If that’s the case, I guess it is what it is, which is incredibly shitty.

    The complete weapons are one thing,

    The “tech” is another. Taurus, Stormshadow, SCALP all rely on US tech. Gripen’s, Leopards, Challengers, LeClerks.

    Pretty much every Western Allied domestic weapons program relies on US Export controlled tech.

    So do the ruZZians.

  55. 55.

    dimmsdale

    OK, here’s a probably deeply ignorant question: recently I had read somewhere (don’t remember where) that what ‘s been keeping Russia from using tactical nukes was a firm line-in-the-sand threat from the US early in the war: Russia, if you use nukes, the US will destroy you. As opposed to what I’ve always assumed was the case till I read the article: that the US is tiptoeing on eggshells to KEEP Russia from using nukes, without being certain what an actual trigger might be. Is it possible the former case applies, and the US is stuck honoring some sort of stupid-ass commitment we made to Russia, to limit weapons supplied to Ukraine, in return for a no-nukes commitment from Russia? I’m asking because otherwise, US conduct toward Ukraine feels deceitful, two-faced, cowardly and so outrageously immoral that there are no words to excuse it.  (Not that the first scenario I mentioned, the US being bound by an early commitment to Russia, needs to continue an instant longer: Russia’s hideous, unspeakable crimes should release the US from any commitment to that terror state.) I’m sorry, I just keep thinking there has to be some secret factor I’m not seeing; Biden isn’t made of stone, though Jake Sullivan might be, but to return here night after night to read about new rivers of Ukrainian blood spilled by Russia, when the US could give Ukraine the means to stop it … how does it not torture Biden and his foreign policy team, and move them to act?

    OK, if this has been asked & answered already and I’m just not prepared to let it sink in, fine. My thanks to Adam, and to the company of commenters here, who make the unspeakable at least somewhat clearer.

  57. 57.

    Another Scott

    @dimmsdale: Not Adam, but I’ll throw in my $0.02.

    The story I heard was that Biden told VVP, in no uncertain terms, that if he used nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons in Ukraine that he (Biden) would order the US military to wipe out all of his (VVP’s) forces in Ukraine (with conventional weapons).  I have no idea if that story is accurate.

    Reuters has a story today about a supposed update to Russia’s nuclear posture:

    LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) – Russia will make changes to its doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons in response to what it regards as Western escalation in the war in Ukraine, state media quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov as saying on Sunday.

    The existing nuclear doctrine, set out in a decree by President Vladimir Putin in 2020, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.

    Some hawks among Russia’s military analysts have urged Putin to lower the threshold for nuclear use in order to “sober up” Russia’s enemies in the West.

    Putin said in June that the nuclear doctrine was a “living instrument” that could change, depending on world events. Ryabkov’s comments on Sunday were the clearest statement yet that changes would indeed be made.

    “The work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear intent to make corrections,” state news agency TASS cited Ryabkov as saying.

    He said the decision is “connected with the escalation course of our Western adversaries” in connection with the Ukraine conflict.

    Moscow accuses the West of using Ukraine as a proxy to wage war against it, with the aim of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia and breaking it apart.

    The United States and its allies deny that, saying they are helping Ukraine defend itself against a colonial-style war of aggression by Russia.

    More at the link.

    Even if one thinks, or knows, that it’s just more bluster from VVP, it’s important to understand their position and be able to counter it in an effective way.

    Recall that the Pentagon usually replies pretty quickly after Medvedev’s periodic new nuclear threat with “we see no sign of an actual change in Russia’s nuclear forces…” – it’s (IMO) to help people to stay calm and to try to defeat VVP’s psychological warfare.

    Many of us oldsters remember the days of the SS-20 and Pershing II intermediate range nuclear weapons in Europe. There was a lot of controversy about how, or if, to respond to the SS-20 deployment. Lots of political battles, huge demonstrations, lots of conflict that went on for several years.

    There are already some signs of increasing instability in Western Europe. Giorgia Meloni is a right-wing PM in Italy. Macron was recently slapped down in elections in France. Scholz is a weak Chancellor in Germany and AfD is rising in some states there while Scholz’s party did poorly.

    People, understandably, get tired of foreign wars, and people, understandably, don’t want to yet again think about nuclear weapons raining down on them. Even if VVP never actually would use nuclear weapons first, redeployment and threats can have real political effects in Western Europe and in the USA. Policy makers have to game out these things and be able to respond effectively even if it is all bluster (because the population may not see it that way).

    Of course, this is just one of many factors that leaders have to consider when deciding on and implementing their foreign policy. I don’t see anyone, except for maybe Donold, giving VVP a veto on US policy toward Ukraine. But the other side always gets a vote so good leaders have to be thinking a few steps ahead.

    FWIW.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  59. 59.

    wjca

    @Another Scott: The existing nuclear doctrine, set out in a decree by President Vladimir Putin in 2020, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.

    The uncertainty, it seems, revolves around how Putin (or any other hypothetical Russian leader) would perceive that something “threatens the existence of the state.”

    Something that would wipe out Moscow and the government?  Sure.  Something that would so weaken the Russian military that it would be unable to repel a theoretical invasion** from, say, one of the Central Asian countries?  Maybe, although it isn’t obvious who would be interested, or why.  Something that would precipitate an internal coup, i.e. threaten Putin personally (he seems like a L’etat, c’est moi, kind of guy)?  Kind of depends on how it unfolds.  The Wagner Group’s march on Moskow didn’t, but who knows how worried Putin actually was at the time.

    ** Beyond what Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already done.  Witness the (non)response to the Kursk invasion.

  61. 61.

    Traveller

    Number 61? Yeah, I’ll do No. 61: It Is Simple but Brutal US Politics

    I have dictated this response several  times but have always held back, not sure of of its validity myself, yet it does have more than a simple surface plausibility. Specifically…

    Nothing is more important to Ukraine than Ms Harris winning the Nov 5 election. Any action, any escalation that can be used to label the Democratic Party, the Party of War, and this is already being tried by the Trump team, might aid the ushering in of a 2nd Presidential term for Mr Trump.

    Nothing could be worse for Ukraine, nothing at all. However, with the election of Ms Harris who  has repeatedly made clear her support for Ukraine will guarantee 4 solid years of US full bore support of Ukraine.

    This is terrible to say, but the loss of Ukrainian lives between now and November 5, might be worth spending for this much desired goal. (Yes, I fully understand how repugnant this sentence is…but there you might have it). Traveller

    * I made this same argument during the terrible 6 month hold up of the 60bn dollar Appropriation Bill for Ukraine. That too was necessary and the wait was…necessary. Without Mike Johnson relenting the war would be in far worse shape than it is now. (Ukraine is doing Okay, except, of course, for the civilian deaths from Russian long range bombers).

  62. 62.

    dimmsdale

    @Another Scott:  Thanks for your (as usual) thoughtful response. It made me realize how little is actually KNOWN (guesses don’t count) about the diplomatic interchanges between the US and Russia. Sometimes it seems to me the US has a goal (no nuclear war) and a strategy to achieve it, which involves Ukrainian civilians dying under hideous circumstances—as opposed to, say, a primary goal of supporting Ukraine to free itself from Russian war crimes and from the civilian slaughter that comes from them. I’m hopeful Kamala’s replacements in the foreign policy realm push the latter, but the wait for SOME kind of positive change is … frustrating.

  64. 64.

    Bill Arnold

    Some hawks among Russia’s military analysts have urged Putin to lower the threshold for nuclear use in order to “sober up” Russia’s enemies in the West.

    Those “hawks” need corrective brain surgery with an electric drill.
    To sober them up.
    The worst of the nonsense among Russian theorists theorizing about nuclear escalation ladders presumes cartoonishly predictable opponents that think just like Russians (except weaker and less manly, because not Russian), and Russian-style rationality.
    Re some of the above, yeah, one should presume that there have may been non-public threats made by many of the parties involved in the Ukraine war to others. E.g. Russia to USA, USA to Russia, Russia to Ukraine, Russia to various European countries.

  65. 65.

    wjca

    @Bill Arnold:

    What is slightly surprising is that the Russian hawks seem to assume that, unlike everywhere else in Russia, their nuclear arsenal has been spared the pilferage, etc. that has afflicted the country for decades.  With things like tanks or petroleum refineries, they at least get used occasionally, so it’s apparent when there is a missing/stolen part that needs to be replaced.  But with nuclear weapons?

    I certainly have no insight into how religiously that stuff is maintained and guarded.  But given the level of top to bottom corruption, who would want to bet on more than a small fraction actually being functional?  (Well, I suppose their ideoligues are as indifferent to any inconvenient facts as ours are.)

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