Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

Stand up, dammit!

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

The real work of an opposition party is to oppose.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

They spent the last eight months firing professionals and replacing them with ideologues.

I’m more christian than these people and i’m an atheist.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 926: A Walk Through the Influence Campaign

War for Ukraine Day 926: A Walk Through the Influence Campaign

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Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing fine. She’s had a bit of the usual post treatment response involving her appetite last night and this morning, but she’s had her appetite enhancing medication. Thank you for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, once we get past the jump I’m going to walk you all through part of the influence operation that’s been revealed through the DOJ indictments this week.

Air raid alerts are either up or going up over most of Ukraine. There have been recent explosions – 7:23 PM EDT/2:23 AM local Ukraine time – on the air raid alert maps in Kyiv and Vinnytsia Oblasts.

Earlier today the Russians hammered Pavlohrad:

The cost:

4 coffins. 4 crosses. One family
This is the scariest thing I’ve seen in my life
Eternal Memory 🕯️

President Zelenskyy was traveling today. In addition to going to meet with Chancellor Scholtz, he also attended and addressed the 50th Ambrosetti International Forum in Italy. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Ukraine Is Not Asking for Anything More Than What Your Country or Any Other Country Already Has – Speech by the President at the 50th Ambrosetti International Forum

6 September 2024 – 22:15

Good evening, Italy! And thank you for supporting our country and our people.

We appreciate every step in support of Ukraine – every action and every expression of solidarity from our partners around the world that helps us restore security and bring peace closer.

Ukrainians want this war to end more than anyone else in the world. But definitely not through the destruction of their nation, their culture, their cities.

Russian aggression leaves us with no choice but to fight and defend our lives. And our people are under constant threat of Russian missile and drone strikes every, every night and every day.

Fortunately, we have air defense systems – also thanks to Italy. But it is not enough to secure our entire territory and repel every Russian attack.

Only since the beginning of this September…

September 1st, Kharkiv – a massive missile attack. A sports palace and a shopping center were destroyed, four multi-story residential buildings and dozens, dozens of shops were damaged. Fifty people were wounded.

September 2nd, again, the same city Kharkiv – Russian bombs. This is an almost daily threat, because we still do not have permission from our partners to destroy military airfields of Russia – the ones from which Russian aircraft carrying these bombs take off. Four bombs were dropped on Kharkiv on September 2nd, wounding 14 people.

September 3rd, Poltava – another missile attack. It hit the territory of the Institute of Communications, destroyed it totally, and a nearby hospital. Forty residential buildings in this area were also damaged. In total, Russia killed these days 55 people, civilians, in this strike, and 328 were wounded or injured, including severe injuries – amputations and internal organ damage.

September 4th, the city of Lviv – the western part of our country – a missile strike directly on the city, targeting ordinary civilian infrastructure. More than a hundred residential buildings were damaged in the attack, as well as a school, three lyceums, kindergarten, two hospitals. Sixty-five people were injured in the strike, and tragically, seven of them died. Among the victims, Russia claimed the lives of four members of one family – a man survived, but his wife and three daughters were killed in their own home by a Russian missile, directly to the house.

Yesterday and today were also days when Russian missiles, attack drones, and heavy aircraft bombs were launched against our Ukrainian cities, against our villages, big, small – doesn’t matter for them. What does Putin want to achieve with all this? Ukrainians did not want his land. We did not want to take anything from Russia. But it was Putin who wanted to take our land – and he occupied our territory. Putin tries to destroy our state and has consistently done everything to deprive Ukraine of its sovereignty, ruin our economy, and force Ukrainians out of Ukraine… Russia has been openly targeting the destruction of our entire energy system, aiming to plunge Ukraine into darkness. Can this evil be accepted?

No, of course not, and that is why Ukrainians continue to fight for their lives, for their children – for their right to live on their land, with their, just with our families, our children, and in safety. Safety in our homes. This is all we want. Is that too much to ask for any nation?

Dear friends, thank you for the invitation. Dear Italy!

Putin is seeking out the world’s worst regimes to find more missiles so he can continue killing Ukrainian children. We are searching for where to get air defense systems to defend ourselves.

Russia is using ballistic missiles from Pyongyang, attack drones from Tehran, and vast amounts of money from Siberian oil to drag out this war as much as possible and deprive our country of life. But we are building, building each day, shelters for schools and even underground schools so that Ukrainian children can study in safety despite everything. And we are relocating Ukrainian enterprises so the economy can keep functioning. And we are setting up underground weapons production facilities so Ukrainian soldiers can defend themselves even when supplies from our partners are delayed. We have developed our own new drones and missiles – and we are gradually bringing this war back to Russia, so that Putin will eventually feel the pressure. The pressure to seek only one thing – peace.

And I truly appreciate that Italy is doing everything with us to implement the Peace Formula – all its points that are essential for peace in Ukraine to be the same kind of peace enjoyed by all those countries that already have it. Ukraine is not asking for anything more than what your country or any other country already has. We just want no father in our country to have to bury his wife and daughters because they were killed by Russian missiles… We just, we just want Ukrainian boys and girls to never again suffer because they cannot help their parents who are in Russian-occupied territories… We just want the heritage of generations of Ukrainians not to be destroyed under Russian bombs. Ukraine deserves to be safe. And we will definitely gain security for our independence and for all our people, all our lovely children.

Here, on the sidelines of the Forum, I will meet with the Head of the Italian Government, Giorgia Meloni. And I’m also preparing to meet with representatives of Italian business. And I’m confident that together we will be able to achieve important, very important things to protect life in Ukraine, to strengthen both of our countries – Ukraine and Italy – and to rebuild Ukraine after the war. We are preparing for a conference in Italy next year focused on Ukraine’s reconstruction, and I really want your companies, your business and best ideas to work with us – together, together with Ukrainian companies and Ukrainian ideas. We can give more strength, economic and social growth to our nations. And I’m confident that together we will achieve this.

I thank everyone who helps us, who helps and supports Ukraine! And I am proud of our people. Ukraine will stand. And I invite all of you to stand with us, with Ukraine and to protect what makes people human.

Thank you for invitation again. Thank you for your attention!

Thank you very much!

Слава Україні!

The reason:

Aslan and Marharyta are both athletes. Now, she competes for two while Aslan defends Ukraine. They were married by Aslan’s commander, surrounded by his brothers-in-arms.

“I said: marry me!”
“She said: okay, when?” – Aslan remembers.

He says Marharyta is his number one fan and volunteer.

Wishing them a lifetime of peaceful years together!

📹: 5th Separate Kyiv Assault Brigade

I want to walk you all through how two influence operations lines of effort ultimately overlap, converge, and merge. I’m going to copy and paste the Bluesky thread I did on this earlier from the Skyview Reader, which is the Bluesky equivalent of the Thread Reader App.

Quick(ish) 🧵. I’ve written about the insider threat of ultra-high net worth individuals a number of times over the past couple of months. How the power created by that wealth to subvert the US state & society. Let’s take a quick walk through one example. 1/
Thiel invests in Polymarket in 2024. 2/
Peter Thiel Invests In Polymarket Political Betting Platform—But The Future Of Gambling On Elections Remains UnclearRegulators proposed new rules Friday that would explicitly ban gambling on political contests.www.forbes.com
Silver goes to work for Polymarket a short time later in 2024. 3/
Nate Silver joins prediction market startup PolymarketMore Americans are flocking to prediction markets to interpret crazy news cycles.www.axios.com
Silver has now flipped the modeling results in Trump’s favor. 4/
Thread by @tbonier on Thread Reader App@tbonier: So over the past couple of days, Nate Silver has been tweeting multiple times a day insisting that things are looking worse and worse for the Harris campaign. One state he claims has moved 1…threadreaderapp.com

So over the past couple of days, Nate Silver has been tweeting multiple times a day insisting that things are looking worse and worse for the Harris campaign.

One state he claims has moved 1.2 pts to Trump since the convention is WI. Let’s take a look at the recent polls there.Image

6 of 10 post convention polls show Harris leading, by an average margin of 7 points. But the two GOP highschool kids’ poll has the race even, Trafalgar (leaders of the red wave polls of ’22) have Trump up 1, and then one Dem pollster I’m not familiar with had the race even. 

Silver showed the most movement towards Trump in NC. So let’s look at the post convention polls there…

It’s the highschool kids again! And InsiderAdvantage, one of the four horseman of the red wave polling of ’22 apocalypse. And a new red-waver.. SoCal strategies, a GOP firm!Image

Let’s remember, the takeaway from 2022 was that the polls were actually pretty accurate, once you filtered out the partisan pollsters. Yet Nate Silver is using these partisan pollsters to drive a narrative that is being echoed by the Trump campaign as an act of desperation. 
Remember, Silver’s model is proprietary, so there’s no way to replicate (stress test for accuracy) his results. Without being able to replicate them, the model cannot be verified. This is the opposite of social, behavioral, or any other type of science or application of scientific methodology. 5/
Which forms a legitimate part of Rachel Bitecofer’s complaint in this tweet. 6/
(Sorry for linking to the hellsite)
x.comx.com
Here’s the screengrab of @rachelbitecofer.bsky.social‘s tweet as she doesn’t seem to post here much. 7/

What @NateSilver538 is up to is unethical in terms of research standards. We’re supposed to believe that between this week and last the overall probability of Trump winning has swung by double digits??!! It’s anti-theoretical.

ALT
Look who is blasting it out: Benny Johnson. 8/
pbs.twimg.com/media/GWqEXe…

Screen grab of a Benny Johnson quote tweet. Johnson's tweet reads "Kamala Collapse Confirmed." The quote tweet, from Polymarket, reads "Trump's lead in the odds just hit 5%."

ALT
Is Thiel or Silver taking RU funding? Thiel probably has unsanctioned RU money in his investment fund. But not like Benny was being paid. Here we have the two different revenue & influence to establish reflexive control streams move in the same direction until they overlap, merge, and become one. 9/
The purpose of all of this is demoralization of Democratic turnout; exhaustion of Democrats, Democratic leaning voters in having to deal with this bouncing around the information domain; normalization of Polymarket as a legit political forecaster; amplification of Trump as the likely winner. 10/
Drive positive sentiment for Harris down in the info domain & up for Trump. All of this is exactly how Prigozhin’s network operated in the Sahel & Madagascar under contract to the GRU prior to Putin extrajudicially executing him. It’s also the first part of the subversion process they used. 11/
The indictments over the past couple of days have been nice to see. They are neither necessary nor sufficient to actually make a dent in the subversion efforts of ultra-high net worth Americans, Putin & Russia, Bibi, Xi & the PRC, Iran, the DPRK, the UAE, and the KSA. 12/
These are all major counterintelligence problems that combine witting/willing & unwitting insider threats with hostile foreign actors, both state & non-state based. 13/
This includes erstwhile allies – Israel, UAE, Saudi – that are using their information power as if they were adversaries to achieve their own strategic objectives. 14/
It would be nice if this was taken seriously enough that it wasn’t left to one seriously burned out natsec professional & a bunch of others like @brooklynmarie.bsky.social, @swordsjew.bsky.social, @charlotteclymer.bsky.social, @protecttruth.bsky.social, @brainnotonyet.bsky.social 15/
@mtsw.bsky.social, @katestarbird.bsky.social, @noupside.bsky.social & far too many more to mention here – both professional journalists, scholars, researchers, & informed & concerned semi-pros like in the non-exhaustive list above – to try to keep everyone informed of what is happening. 16 & end/
Addendum: I’m sure I missed some folks that I shouldn’t have in that non-exhaustive list. I’m sure I could add at least a 1/2 dozen more skeets of people you should read or follow who are all working parts of this from different directions & disciplines.
Addendum (cont): If I missed you, it was not intentional, no disrespect was intended. Everyone who is bringing their tools, time, & effort to this is important & what you’re doing is appreciated even if no one tells you that & you feel like you’re screaming into the void. end addendum/

One additional item from the Forbes reporting about Thiel investing in Polymarket:

Controversial billionaire political donor Peter Thiel and ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin raised about $70 million in funding for Polymarket, one of the major cryptocurrency startups offering “event contracts” for users to bet on things like political elections—despite the threat of impending federal regulation for election gambling.

We now return to the regularly scheduled main portion of the Ukraine war update.

Work with partners to strength Ukraine continues. I have arrived at the Ramstein Air Base to participate in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting.

We need our partners’ determination and the means to stop Russia’s aerial terror. It is crucial that all the weapons from the already announced support packages finally reach the combat brigades. We also need strong long-range decisions from our partners to bring closer the just peace we are striving for.

I will take part in the Group’s meeting and meet with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. I will also hold separate talks with
@Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz.

Following that, I will head to Italy for the Ambrosetti International Economic Forum, with meetings planned with Italian business representatives. Negotiations will also take place with the President of the Council of Ministers of the Italian Republic, @GiorgiaMeloni.

We are coordinating positions with all G7 allies.

From The Financial Times:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged Washington to permit his forces to use US weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory as he looks to increase pressure on Moscow to end the 31-month war.

Zelenskyy made the plea on Friday in a meeting with western defence ministers in Germany, underscoring his determination to shift policies in many countries that have barred Kyiv from using their weapons to strike Russia. His visit to Ramstein marked his first time joining the meeting at the air base in person.

“We need to have this long-range capability not only on the occupied territory of Ukraine, but also on the Russian territory, so that Russia is motivated to seek peace,” he said at the start of the meeting. The Ukraine contact group is a regular forum to co-ordinate lethal aid to Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s request to about 50 allies comes as Kyiv has seized more than 1,000 sq km in the Russian region of Kursk but now faces the challenge of holding on to that territory as Moscow sends reinforcements.

Ukraine is also facing setbacks in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk. Zelenskyy on Friday said Russia’s “most capable units . . . are involved in expanding the zone of occupation” and have made steady gains towards Pokrovsk, a strategic military supply and logistics hub. If Pokrovsk was captured, Russian forces could push towards Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city, extending their control deeper into the country.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly called for the lifting of restrictions on the use of western-supplied, long-range weapons so that Ukraine’s military can strike Russian airfields and missile launchers, as well as ammunition depots, fuel storage and command and control centres that are key to Moscow’s war.

The US in recent months has allowed Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory for defensive strikes, shifting away from a blanket ban. But Zelenskyy is pressing Washington and other western countries to allow Kyiv to use long-range weaponry to strike deeper inside Russia as part of an overall strategy to raise the cost of the invasion for President Vladimir Putin.

While Ukraine won support for striking deeper into Russia from some defence ministers at Ramstein, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said the US does not plan to change its policy.

“I don’t believe that one specific capability is going to be decisive,” Austin said, adding that the US is focused on making sure Ukrainian forces can integrate the weapons they have received, have the correct skills to use them and can tie their use to specific objectives.

“Many countries [are] in favour,” said Lithuania’s defence minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas, responding to Zelenskyy’s pleas. “But the question is not the number of countries, but countries who give [those] missiles.”

Instead of changing policy on deeper strikes inside Russia, US officials have said Ukraine should prioritise using western weapons to defend its eastern and northern regions, retaining access to the Black Sea and holding Crimea — the peninsula annexed by Putin in 2014 — at risk.

Austin on Friday announced the US would deliver additional lethal aid worth $250mn, including urgently needed air defence.

On a visit to Washington last week, Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov provided Washington a list specifying the targets that Kyiv would like to strike using US Army Tactical Missile Systems (Atacms), British Storm Shadow and French Scalp long-range missiles.

Russia has launched deadly air strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and military and civilian targets. An attack on a military institute in central Poltava on Tuesday killed 54 people and injured 297 others, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service.

Zelenskyy on Friday said: “We need to force Russia to seek peace. We need to make Russian cities and even Russian soldiers, think about what they need, peace or Putin, and it is realistic to push them to choose peace.”

More at the link.

Luxembourg:

The US:

The US announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $250 million to meet Ukraine’s critical defense needs.

The capabilities in this package include:
◾️Bradley IFVs
◾️M113 APCs
◾️MRAP Vehicles
◾️RIM-7 missiles and support for air defense
◾️Stinger missiles
◾️Ammunition for HIMARS
◾️155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
◾️TOW missiles
◾️Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
◾️Small arms ammunition and grenades
◾️Patrol boats
◾️Maritime training equipment
◾️Demolitions equipment and munitions
◾️Spare parts

We are grateful to the US for their strong support and unwavering solidarity. Together, we will win!
@DeptofDefense

As we’ve noted and/or discussed previously in the update and the comments, the issue is not the US announcing it is sending Ukraine a new/another tranche of material. The issue is if/when is it actually going to get to Ukraine.

Spain:

Today, during the meeting of #UDCG, Spain’s Minister of Defense Margarita #Robles announced the immediate dispatch of a complete HAWK battery, which includes 6 missile launchers.
More air defense capabilities for Ukraine means more innocent lives saved.
Thank you, Spain!
🇺🇦🤝🇪🇸
@Defensagob

This is excellent. Now we need the Biden administration to tell Bibi in no uncertain terms that we’re pulling the Hawk batteries and munitions sitting in our storage depot in Israel and transferring them to Ukraine and we don’t want to hear one peep out of him or the extremists in the coalition about it.

I would also like the winning lottery numbers and a pony.

Holland:

The Netherlands is supplying €80 million worth of support materials for F-16s. In addition, our Dutch partners are providing air-to-air missiles.

Strengthening Ukraine’s air defense capabilities is our top priority, and we highly appreciate the support from the Netherlands.

The power of unity brings Victory closer!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱
@Defensie @DefensieMin

Canada:

Canada announced a new military aid package for Ukraine!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦
The package includes:
◾️80,840 additional CRV-7 rocket motors
◾️1,300 CRV-7 warheads
◾️970 C6 machine guns
◾️10,500 9mm pistols
◾️29 M113s decommissioned chassis
◾️64 Coyote LAVs decommissioned chassis
◾️50 ambulances

Minister of @NationalDefence of Canada, @BillBlair, announced that this week, AFU pilots arrived in Canada to begin fighter-lead-in-training (FLIT). Canada has taken over leadership of the FLIT element of the UDCG Air Force Capability Coalition, backed by an investment of $389 million over five years in F-16 pilot training for Ukrainian personnel.

We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their unwavering support.
Together, we are stronger!

The United Kingdom:

The UK will supply 650 Lightweight Multirole Missile (LMM) systems to Ukraine worth £162 million. The delivery will start this year.

We are grateful to our British partners for their ironclad support and strengthening Ukraine’s air defense. Thanks for making us stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧
@DefenceHQ

Venice:

I would like to emphasize that this load of horseshit has no place in our world, especially now when these said soldiers are butchering civilians in Ukraine, unleash missiles, drones, and bombs upon us, rape children, and turn our land into a mined, scorched desert.

It feels like a failure to me on the personal level too. No matter what I, what we Ukrainians, say or do for the reasons I can’t comprehend, the world prefers to talk to killers.

If you guessed that the documentarian works for Russian propaganda and influence outlets, you would be correct.

Remember, it was RT that was handling the pay for the Russian government in the Tenet Media influence operation line of effort.

Iran:

Kyiv:

Vovchansk:

The Pokrovsk front:

CNN has the details:

The troops emerge and stagger into the middle of the dusty track, then onto their knees, their hands placed on their heads. Seconds later, the Ukrainian drone footage shows, they lie face down, motionless, dust trailing nearby.

Video obtained exclusively by CNN, filmed during fighting late August near the embattled city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, shows an apparent execution by Russian troops of three surrendering Ukrainians, after their trench was overrun.

The incident, described by a Ukrainian official who asked for some details to be withheld to protect the identity of the unit, is part of a pattern of apparent executions, seemingly increasing in pace this year.

Ukrainian defense intelligence sources have given CNN a list of 15 cases since November, most supported by drone video or audio intercepts, in which they say surrendering Ukrainian troops were killed by the Russians on the front lines, rather than being taken prisoner.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, told CNN on Wednesday his office was investigating at least 28 such incidents since the start of the war.

Following the publication of CNN’s report, Kostin posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, that prosecutors had also launched an investigation into the footage obtained by CNN from near Pokrovsk, as well as video of another suspected killing of a captured Ukrainian soldier that was distributed Friday on Telegram.

Ukrainian prosecutors said Friday they were now investigating “the possible execution of 73 Ukrainian prisoners of war by the Russian military.”

The footage from Pokrovsk region appears to reflect the relentlessly brutal tactics of the Russian military as they continue to advance in Ukraine’s east.

More at the link.

Once again, I’ve seen the video. You DO NOT need to see the video.

Kherson Oblast:

The Luhansk front, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

For you counter-drone enthusiasts:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

У мене було б точно: «спить на уроці»🤭 Ідею відео взяв у @Юля і кіт Сімба 👀

♬ pocket full of sunshine – alice

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I would have been for sure: “sleeping in class” 🤭 I got the idea for the video from

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

27Comments

  1. 1.

    tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)

    Thank you, Adam. I often just lurk and read, but I learn so much from your posts.

  3. 3.

    Gin & Tonic

    A couple of translation notes: The Tweet near the top from Andriy Sadovyi (who’s the long-time Mayor of L’viv, BTW) shouldn’t be “the scariest thing in my life” but rather “the most awful/horrific thing in my life” (choose one.) The Patron caption is intended as an answer to the question posed in the body of the video, “If your dog was going to school, what kind of comment would be written in his workbook?” [meaning by the teacher] Patron’s answer: “Mine would definitely be “sleeps in class'”

    As to the Bazylevich family funeral, I’ve seen far too many pictures, and it looks like half the population of L’viv came out today. It must have been a ghost town.

  4. 4.

    Gin & Tonic

    Incidentally, that Trofimova shit is scheduled to be shown at the Toronto International Film Festival. I’d encourage  Canadian readers of this blog to make their views known to the festival organizers. Maybe ask them when the Leni Riefenstahl retrospective is scheduled.

  5. 5.

    Lyrebird

    Thank you Adam.  I hope you get your pony!

    I’m wishing for some money trails implicating a Senator or two…  I saw a headline of Hawley bleating about the investigation, hmmmmmmmmm

     

    ETA:

    @Gin & Tonic:

    thank you for the added language nuance.

  6. 6.

    Gin & Tonic

    The US announced a new military aid package for Ukraine

    With that announcement and $2.90 I can get on the subway.

  7. 7.

    Palooza

    Unbelievable.  These, poor souls.  My heart weeps.  Half measures and US politics getting mixed into helping Ukraine has been shameful.

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Starfish: He recounts that he lost millions to win $5,000 over the time period that 538 was being dismantled by Disney. Dave Karpf, of Brett Simmons Bedbug fame, did a full fisking of the book on his Bluesky feed.

  13. 13.

    TF79

    I remember talking statistics methodologies with Silver in the comment section of his blog back in 2008 (covariances, weightings, structural uncertainty vs sampling uncertainty, etc), so the evolution from that to a vibes-pundit to whatever this current iteration is is pretty wild

  19. 19.

    dnfree

    It’s hard to figure out what has happened to Nate Silver, to me anyway. He used to just seem like a geeky guy who understood statistics.

  23. 23.

    BR

    @dnfree: ​

    I remember interacting with Nate Silver on Daily Kos when he went by the username “poblano” and was just getting started making election models. I had the same impression of him as you.

  25. 25.

    MinuteMan

    Another amplifier of bad polls or analyses are the fundraisers who use the to generate fear to increase donations. Since Biden dropped out all sorts of new sources have popped up asking for money promising 2, 4 6 8x matching and using whatever memes they think will cause money to flow their way. Negative tactics like this seen likely to destroy morale.

  27. 27.

    way2blue

    I seem to have heard this excuse before.  Many times.  Is anyone buying it?  I would say ‘clueless’, but Austin is military guy.  Patronizing much?  How about letting Ukraine protect its cities, water supply, power supply by attacking the launch sites of the missiles rather than trying to knock them out of the sky one by one?

    While Ukraine won support for striking deeper into Russia from some defence ministers at Ramstein, US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said the US does not plan to change its policy.

    “I don’t believe that one specific capability is going to be decisive,” Austin said  . . .

    Instead of changing policy on deeper strikes inside Russia, US officials have said Ukraine should prioritise using western weapons to defend its eastern and northern regions, retaining access to the Black Sea and holding Crimea

Comments are closed.