Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

If you are still in the gop, you are either an extremist yourself, or in bed with those who are.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

So many bastards, so little time.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Jesus watching the most hateful people claiming to be his followers

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 927: A 67 Drone Swarm

War for Ukraine Day 927: A 67 Drone Swarm

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Screen shot of painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a grey border. On the left is a Ukrainian apartment block in the background. In the left foreground is an armored forearm and fist blocking incoming Russian rockets and missiles. The Russian rockets and missiles are red and have the "Z" symbol on them. The backgound is black. Above the armored arm and fist, written in white, is "Every Single Day in Ukraine."

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Her next treatment is a week from Monday. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, President Zelenskyy was still traveling today and has not posted a video address or any other new video.

Last night Russia launched a swarm of 67 Iranian made Shahed drones against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense was able to neutralize 58 of them.

A news source, has finally accurately described the US’s approach to supporting Ukraine.

From The Scotsman: (emphasis mine)

A Russian missile strike on Lviv, in western Ukraine, left Yaroslav Bazylevych the sole survivor of his family this week. His wife and three daughters were killed, victims of a war where, in the words of Lithuania’s Foreign Minister, “Russian planes are better protected by Western guarantees than Ukrainian civilians.”

Yaroslav, his wife, Yevheniya, and three daughters – Emilia, Daryna and Yaryna – all lived in Lviv, a city near Ukraine’s border with Poland which has long been considered a safer haven within Ukrainian territory. Until recently, it has experienced limited Russian attacks. This recent bombardment came after devastating missile strikes on the central Ukrainian city of Poltava, which claimed the lives of over 50 people, making it one of Russia’s deadliest attacks on Ukraine to date.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is intensifying, and yet still the Western posture seems to be utterly stuck in a rut. Ukraine complains – rightly – that Western weapons deliveries are simply not enough, that they take too long to arrive and that too many restrictions are placed upon their use. This has become a particular point of focus as Western partners – principally the Biden administration – insist on a blurred policy when it comes to using American-made weapons to strike military targets within Russia.

Although the White House lifted its blanket ban on targeting assets in Russia earlier this year, they continue to dole out a whole range of excuses as to why certain weapons systems must not or should not be used. Usually, “unnamed officials” at the State Department reference the risk of nuclear escalation or claim that the use of longer-range weapons hitting inside Russia won’t change the strategic outlook of the war because the targets aren’t worth hitting.

If the war has shown us anything, it’s that Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling is just that. But the idea that Ukraine can’t change the strategic outlook is simply for the birds. A recent study from the US-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, argues that there are around 250 military objects – airfields, military bases, communications stations and logistics hubs – within range of Army Tactical Missile Systems, a tactical ballistic missile built by Lockheed Martin and supplied by the US.

Ben Hodges, a former commander of American forces in Europe, told The Economist that the “constant excuse-making is both misleading and inaccurate. There is no moral or legal reason for not going after these targets.” He was even more blunt when he took to X/Twitter after the Russian bombing of a housing block in Kharkiv when he said: “US policy is protecting Russia’s ability to do this.”

Another example would be the UK and French-supplied Storm Shadow/Scalp cruise missiles. Ukraine wants to use these to target legitimate Russian assets but because they contain American components, the US gets an effective veto.

The supply of Storm shadow missiles – albeit limited – is not insignificant. They have a long range and can, for example, penetrate hardened aircraft hangers. They would present a headache for Russian military planners, who have already moved significant assets further away from the Ukrainian border. But Joe Biden says no. With his pushback, Russian bombers sleep a little more soundly.

In recent days, Ukrainian officials have travelled to Washington in the hope of securing a readjustment to the current policy of ‘yes but, no but’. It’s understood Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also raise the issue directly with Biden when the pair meet at the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York.

A change is indeed needed if Ukraine is to win, and this war is to come to an end. How can it possibly be that we – politicians and citizens of the West – allow Russian bombers to be better protected than Yaroslav’s wife and three children? Ukraine must be allowed to strike back if they are to protect their sovereignty, which is entirely the point of article 51 of the UN Charter.

What we are witnessing in Washington is the slow boiling of a frog. Biden’s stubbornness, and his inability to see the bigger strategic picture, will prolong the war, deteriorate European security even further and only encourage Russia to push the envelope as they seek to create a new wave of Ukrainian refugees in Europe.

John Foreman, the former British Defence Attaché in Moscow, put it rather well to me earlier this week when he said: “The US strategy is the inverse of Roosevelt’s. Biden speaks loudly but carries a small stick.”

More at the link.


The reason:

Here are the details from The Financial Times:

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has dented Vladimir Putin’s war narrative and triggered “questions” among the Russian elite about the point of the war, two of the world’s leading spy chiefs have said.

CIA director Bill Burns said Kursk was “a significant tactical achievement” that had boosted Ukrainian morale and exposed Russia’s weaknesses. It has “raised questions . . . across the Russian elite about where is this all headed”, he said.

He was speaking at the Financial Times’ Weekend festival in London on Saturday alongside MI6 chief Richard Moore.

Moore said the Kursk offensive was “a typically audacious and bold move by the Ukrainians . . . to try and change the game” — although he cautioned it was “too early” to say how long Kyiv’s forces would be able to control the Russian territory they had seized.

The spy chiefs spoke about what they called an unprecedented range of threats to the international world order, from Putin’s war in Ukraine and Russia’s campaign of sabotage operations across Europe to the rise of China and rapid technological change.

On Russia, both men said there was no sign that Putin’s grip on power had lessened. But it would be wrong to “confuse a tight grip on power with a stable grip”, Moore said, especially as the Kursk incursion had “brought the war home to ordinary Russians”.

Both also said it would be wrong to take Putin’s threats of nuclear escalation lightly but that the west should not be unnecessarily intimidated. “Putin is a bully and is going to continue sabre-rattling from time to time,” Burns said.

Asked whether Iran had shipped short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, Burns said that doing so would “mark a dramatic escalation”.

Moore said that if Russia did use Iranian missiles in Ukraine, alongside the drones that Tehran had already supplied, it would be “very obvious”.

Recent Russian sabotage operations across Europe were “reckless”, Moore said, describing Russian intelligence as “having gone a bit feral”. But “in the UK that is not new”, he added, referring to the attempted assassination of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in 2018.

Asked if Russian intelligence might be conducting similar sabotage operations against the US by abetting illegal migration across the Mexico border, Burns said: “It’s something we are very sharply focused on. Part of that is a function of so many Russian agents [being] kicked out of Europe. So they are looking for somewhere to go instead.”

More at the link.

Here’s the video of the event.

Apparently Iran neither got the memo, nor cares what it said if they did, about the US’s and the UK’s ability to track what it is doing.

“Iran is believed to have sent more than 200 ballistic missiles to Russia – a move security chiefs say would be a “dramatic escalation” of its defence partnership with Moscow.

A Russian ship delivered the short-range Fatah-360 missiles from Tehran to a port in the Caspian Sea, a Ukrainian source told Sky News on Saturday.”
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-iran-sends-hundreds-of-missiles-to-russia-in-dramatic-escalation-13211063?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

From Sky News:

Iran is believed to have sent more than 200 ballistic missiles to Russia – a move security chiefs say would be a “dramatic escalation” of its defence partnership with Moscow.

A Russian ship delivered the short-range Fatah-360 missiles from Tehran to a port in the Caspian Sea, a Ukrainian source told Sky News on Saturday.

Ukraine and its allies in the West have long feared that Iran has been supplying Russia with ballistic missiles.

So far it has supplied Vladimir Putin‘s forces with large quantities of attack drones – as well as artillery shells and ammunition.

But speaking at an event in London, CIA director Bill Burns said: “Should Iran ship ballistic missiles… it would be a dramatic escalation of the nature of the defence partnership.”

Mr Burns also stressed how the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates the impact of technology on the battlefield.

He and his UK counterpart, MI6 chief Sir Richard Moore accused Russia of a “reckless campaign of sabotage” in the unprecedented joint event on Saturday.

Meanwhile, military analyst Sean Bell said of the reported missile delivery: “It will mean Russia’s limited supply of its own Iskander missiles can now be focused on long-range targets – that’s very worrying.”

He added: “We [also] understand that Russian soldiers have been in Iran doing training for the last few weeks.”

It is important to remember that Biden publicly issued warnings – red lines if you will – to Russia and North Korea regarding Ukraine. For Russia, it included not using chemical weapons in Ukraine, which Putin promptly ignored. To the DPRK, it was do not send ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, which Kim promptly ignored. Biden’s inability to actually back up his own warnings with meaningful action to either establish or reestablish deterrence while, at the same time, being completely deterred by Putin’s threats, has shown everyone – friend and foe, state or non-state actor – that they can do whatever they want whenever they want and the US will do nothing, or, at least, nothing effective, to stop them.

If these schmucks had been in their jobs during World War II, Americans and the British would be speaking German and I would never have been born.

This is how you establish or reestablish deterrence:

“Russia’s entire infrastructure working for war has suffered and will continue to suffer losses. After all, instead of defending its own, Russia chose the false path of unprovoked war and attacking the lands of a sovereign state,” the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s GUR, Kyrylo Budanov, said in his congratulations post on the Day of Military Intelligence.

He also said that drones developed by the Ukrainians can now hit Russian military facilities at a distance of up to 1,800 kilometers.

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Ukraine’s consul-general in Toronto, Oleh Nikolenko, has urged the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) to remove a documentary centering Russian soldiers fighting on the front lines in Ukraine.

“Russians at War,” a documentary by Russian-Canadian filmmaker Anastasia Trofimova, sparked outrage when it screened at the Venice Film Festival on Sept. 5. Trofimova shot the film while embedded with Russian troops participating in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“It is irresponsible to allow the Toronto International Film Festival, one of the most reputable world film stages, to be used to whitewash the responsibility of Russian soldiers committing war crimes in Ukraine during the ongoing Russian invasion,” Nikolenko said in a letter obtained by The Globe and Mail.

The film is set to have its North American premiere at TIFF on Sept. 10.

The Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC) reported that the documentary received funding from the Canadian Media Fund, a public-private partnership backed by the Department of Canadian Heritage, in amount of 340,000 Canadian dollars ($250,358).

Nikolenko in his letter criticized the Canadian government for helping to fund the documentary. He also said that by joining a Russian military unit on occupied Ukrainian territory, Trofimova “grossly violates Ukrainian legislation.”

Trofimova issued a statement on Sept. 6 defending the documentary against what she characterized as attacks.

“I want to be clear that this Canada-France co-production is an anti-war film made at great risk to all involved, myself especially,” she said.

Trofimova has previously shot documentaries for the Russian state news agency RT, which has been sanctioned by Canada and the United States.

Nikolenko said that the Consulate General’s office, the Ukrainian embassy in Ottawa, and UCC has been in “intensive communication” with TIFF senior management for weeks.

For those that haven’t heard of it, CQB stands for Close Quarters Battle. I received my CQB certification in 1993 when I was living in the UK. Lofty Weisman was one of the senior trainers for the course.

That is very nice livery.

Kyiv:

Horenka, Kyiv Oblast:

Pokrovsk:

Kharkiv Oblast:

Vovcahnsk, Kharkiv Oblast:

The cross border Kursk offensive:

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

40Comments

  5. 5.

    Harrison Wesley

    Maybe the U.S. government does have a master plan, but if so it sure isn’t obvious.  In 2022, Boris Johnson carried the message that the West (America) would not support a possible negotiated settlement in Istanbul.  This certainly implied that in urging Ukraine to keep fighting, the West would provide military support.  Now that appears to be tied up with all kinds of provisos that undercut effective responses to Russian aggression.  I don’t want to hear any more blustery bullshit about in-it-to-win-it, total-victory, 100-percent-eternal-support, blah-fucking-blah-blah-blah.  What exactly is the American government committed to do for Ukraine?  And, no, hanging the Urainian people out to dry while their country is turned into a wasteland isn’t a strategy.  What is Washington’s real end game?

  6. 6.

    TS

    Hi Adam

    Belated thank you for yesterday’s post – I was directed there when in panic mode about Silver and his polls.

    And thank you for this one, I haven’t read the details of your posts more recently & this was something of a wakeup call. The forces certainly have been working against what should be happening, the democratic party appears to have to fight much more than the republicans in congress.

    Have you written about any differences with VP Harris and Biden – do you think there will be any? I can’t contemplate anyone else winning the US election.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TS: You’re most welcome. Glad it was helpful. The reality is that because of the Electoral College, Trump has the exact same 30%, + or -, chance to win that he had in 2016 when he won and in 2020 when he lost. That’s a structural reality that can only be overcome by Harris winning by more than 2% nationally with that more than 2% distributed in the right states.

    There are some differences between Harris’s natsec team and Biden’s, but I’m still not sure how much and how that would effect Harris’s own policies. I get the impression she is more aggressive and less cautious than Biden.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    (((Tendar)))
    @Tendar
    12h
    The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence “GUR” released a video showing operations far behind enemy lines. Their places are in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine such as Sevastopol, but also deep inside Russia itself. Moscow, Sankt Petersburg, Smolensk, Kaluga, Oryol, Belgorod etc. the message is clear:

    The GUR is everywhere.

    https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1832405519299908051#m

  11. 11.

    pieceofpeace

    Thank you, Adam.  I read more than shows with few to no comments.

    Often, I’m speechless and take some time to recalibrate myself.  You are appreciated.

  12. 12.

    Dan B

    I keep reading posts about Ukraine and a combination if anger and despair grips me.  As a gay man I’m forever grateful for Biden’s pushing the envelope on marriage equality.  I’m also extremely displeased with his pulling the rug out from under Anita Hill.  I keep believing that Jake Sullivan keeps the personal stories like the man in Lviv whose wife and three daughters were killed.  Buy our MSM doesn’t seem to be telling these stories or front paging them. You’d think that Biden who lost his wife and daughters and who was bullied would react viscerally to what Putin’s Russia is doing.  Replacing Jake Sullivan could make a difference.  Investigating State Department officials for Russian connections could be good as well but oligarchic takeover of MSM and infiltration of social media may be most important.  We’re hemorrhaging democracy for the almighty dollar and almost no one will have any power or money the way were heading.  Lose empathy and morality and the foundation is gone.

  14. 14.

    Rudi666

    Ukraine is limited in their defense against Russian attacks on civilians.  But Israel gets bombs and a green lights to destroy Hamas. Russia is a bigger existential threat to Ukraine than Hamas is to Israel. What about Aysenur Ezgi Eygi?

    FauxNews only has one story about her murder.

  15. 15.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Rudi666: I wish there were good answers to your questions other than strategic malpractice, incoherence, and incompetence. But there are not.

  18. 18.

    Traveller

    Yesterday, Gin & Tonic wrote:
    Gin & TonicSeptember 6, 2024 at 9:31 pm

    The US announced a new military aid package for Ukraine

    With that announcement and $2.90 I can get on the subway.
    (I didn’t have time to respond yesterday, life intruded…but my thoughts…)
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    I too choked on the paltriness of this US Assistance announced at Ramstein Security conference two days ago. I listened to Loyd Austin’s remarks. He said all the right things:
    He is a valued partner and a friend, and it was an honor to have President Zelenskyy join this contact group for the first time here at Ramstein. The whole contact group heard his passionate call for more security assistance for Ukraine, and I share President Zelenskyy’s outrage over Putin’s most recent barrage of airstrikes, which have been some of the heaviest since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian forces still face perilous battlefield conditions, especially in Pokrovske, but Ukraine’s troops continue to fight with skill, courage and daring.
    I am one of the few people that have tried to defend the Biden Administration’s “Boiling the frog slowly strategy, if this IS the strategy (?) and I am not just projecting my own hopeful thinking on the Administration?
    But part of my conditions for waiting out Speaker Johnson for the 60Bn Ukraine Appropriations Bill, was that logistical shipments would be radically sped up…and without these kind of hinky small time here and there’s.What should be being transferred is 2 Billion per week between now and Nov 5, 2024.
    Because here is the true drop dead time limit God forbid Mr Trump is re-elected, November 6 and not January 5, 2025. It remains my terror that Trump will not only try to put a break on any arms or other assistance transfers, but his shouting will be sufficient to prevent any after November 6, 2024.
    So speed them up, lads, speed them up! None of the dribble dabble of 100M here, 250M there…Billions now.​

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    At this point, what leverage does the US & the West have over Iran to enforce any redlines? Joining Israel in an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, that will touch off a massive regional conflagration in the ME & prompt Iran to actually acquire nuclear weapons, both of which the Biden Administration has been desperately (& correctly) trying to avoid?

    Likewise w/ NK.

  20. 20.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    They can,……..

    Release the restrictions on the use of arms by Ukraine.

    They can close the skies over Ukraine, like they did for Israel.

    They can target arms shipments in transit, like they do with Yemen.

    They can enforce sanctions better by targeting “broker” countries and pass through companies better,

    They can target the ruZZian “ghost fleets” and cut off the supply of discounted oil and gas,

    They can sanction and target ruZZian CNG exports.

    But they won’t, because the US is a “paper tiger”.

  21. 21.

    Chet Murthy

    @Jay: they can demand that Russia stop using Western chips and machine tools, and put in place a schedule of escalations of supplies and loosening of restrictions on Ukraine for each time that Russia is discovered to be continuing to do so.  So for instance every timeA Russian missile or drone is found with Western chips in it, The West loosens restrictions and increases supplies to Ukraine.

    But as you say, we are a paper tiger.  We don’t actually want Russia to lose.  We really are going to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian.  It’s disgusting.

  22. 22.

    Traveller

    @Chet Murthy: ​
    @Jay: ​

    @Jay: ​
     

    Well, Jay, those are eyebrow raising suggestions…except for the arms in shipment, and maybe closing the airspace (with US planes?)…if you are saying overland as to shipments, then that doesn’t work…a sea quarantine maybe…but freedom of the seas, traditions and laws and stuff. Otherwise, very good.

    But your last phrase is not true…the US is not a “paper tiger,” and I will disagree with Mr Murthy on this assessment also. I don’t think incrementalism for support of Ukraine doesn’t work for me…it should be or not, no ratcheting up or down depending on this or that that Russia does. But as to much more severe sanctions re war technology…Mr Murthy has me thinking, maybe this can be turned up by a factor of ten.

    Advanced Micro says it wasn’t us, we sold to a third party, that third party says not me either, it was sold by us to a Chinese company that transshipped to Russia…So who is sanctionable here in this chain? AMD for not vetting properly, 1st offense they skate, the two 3rd party middle vendors should be successfully sanction-able….China much less so of course, if at all.
    Still, good thinking by everyone…oh, re “Paper Tiger”, the thick vein of isolationism that runs through US Politics, intellectually and emotionally, but also structurally, (see US Senate), is just real with lots of back-looking history to support it, (see Lucky Lindy and the Am Bund, Am First Party). For this I have neither suggestions or answers…except to win this damned upcoming election.

  23. 23.

    Chet Murthy

    @Traveller: Do you remember when Ukraine really stepped-up the campaign of bombing Russian refineries?  They  called it “finally applying sanctions that bite” or something like that.  That’s the only sanctions that will work, b/c too many countries are happy, happy, *happy* to accept Russian cash in exchange for busting those sanctions.  Remember Kamil Galeev’s research into those Austrian machine-tool companies that are -still- supplying software to run their machine tools in Russia, and various other consumable parts, so Russia can machine their missiles ?  Nothing’s been done about that, I’ll bet.

    We can’t force Austria to become a good citizen of the West.  What we -can- do, is make Russia -pay- in the most important coin they have, for using our technology in their war on Ukraine.  That coin being Russian soldiers’ lives and Russia’s military-industrial complex.

  24. 24.

    Traveller

    @Traveller: ​
    Oh, thats what I wanted to add…just happened to stumble across this piece of Russian history last night:

    Under Ivan IV, more commonly known as the Terrible, Russia lost a 15 year war for what is today Latvia and Estonia…Livonian War (1558–1583), so it is not like Russia cannot be defeated.

    Traveller (I’m sorry, for reasons unknown, I still have not mastered posting a link in this format…if you want, just Google, Livonian War)

  25. 25.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    The only European country to have shot a ruZZian drone crossing their airspace, which ruZZia doess all the time, is,……………..

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    belaruZZia, a ruZZian client state.

  26. 26.

    Chet Murthy

    @Traveller: It’s really late for it, but we should also be upping the ante on defense production, and making sure Russia knows we’re doing it specifically in response to Russia’s actions.  We should be doubling the rate of production of Patriot systems and missiles, and sending the extra to Ukraine.  Just as we did with shells, which we should double again.  We should be sending F16s from our own stores, and not waiting for our European allies to do it.  etc.

    All of it, we should be making sure Russia knows we’re doing it because they continue to use our technology in their war against Ukraine.

  30. 30.

    Traveller

    @Jay: ​
     LOL, maybe so, Jay, maybe so…I am not sure of these encroachments by Russian Military Air Assets…Romania, from time to time I’ve seen…but so far I am going to stick with No active US or Nato Engagement…(parts and what not sure, that seems silly to me).
    But Let me ask you a question…might there be some fear that Ukraine will go off reservation as it were, and use British, Freench or US cruise missiles to hit…maybe deeply offensive targets? (the State Hermitage Museum for example?)

    As cruel as this might sound, I do want this conflict confined to
    Western Russia and Ukraine.

  31. 31.

    Traveller

    Afghanistan? Who wants it? As I had published recently in the NYT comments section, (yeah Me…lol) Afghanistan is totally Landlocked, no sea port or even river access…Pakistan has made it very clear that there are and will not be granted any overflight or military landing rights into Afghanistan. There is the lovely sight of a nuclear armed Pakistan sending up the well armed F-16’s we sold them as we try to fight our way back into Afghanistan.

    I can’t say this most anywhere else…but Afghan women want me to kill their husbands, fathers and brothers to protect them from these same Husbands, Fathers and Bothers who are happy to kill them.

    Conversely, fully 30% of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are staffed by women…every week I publish at my private travel place pictures of women killed in combat, or ministering the wounded, or, driving trucks, or flying drones…brave warriors all.
    I greatly sympathize with Afghan women…but, they really did not seem willing to participate, (yes I know there were about 4,000 who served out of 20,000,000 women….a losing proposition for sure)

  32. 32.

    Jay

    @Traveller:

    might there be some fear that Ukraine will go off reservation as it were, and use British, Freench or US cruise missiles to hit…maybe deeply offensive targets? (the State Hermitage Museum for example?

    Nope.

    Ukraine is not looting, raping and murdering it’s way through Kursk.

    Ukraine does not torture, starve or execute ruZZian POW’s.

    While Ukraine has tried ruZZian POW’s on war crimes charges, they do not make up fake cases or charge ruZZian civilians or media on fake terrorism charges.

    Ukraine does not kidnap ruZZian children and try to culturally genocide them or sell them into sex slavery.

    Ukraine, even though they now have their own, highly effective drones and glide bombs, does not target hospitals, childrens cancer wards, schools, malls, farmers markets, random houses, apartment buildings or sends their drones to hunt ruZZian civilian’s in the streets, etc.

    Ukraine is not trying to sell empty apartments, houses and businesses in Kursk to Ukrainians.

    The big fear, is that Ukraine, unleashed, will win, and quickly, and that ruZZia will be so butthurt that the sweet, sweet flow of ruZZian looted cash will stop flowing to the West and all those ruZZian Ogliarches children living the high life in the West will move back home. The Billion Dollar Yacht Market will collapse and the moderately wealth will be able to afford housing in Londongrad, Capri, Tuscony, New York, (not Neu York, it has been ruZZian MIR’ed).

  33. 33.

    Sally

    @Jay: Ha – like those oligarchs, their children, mistresses, and wives would leave their villas and estates in “decadent” Monaco, etc. Or take their kids out of Oxbridge or the Sorbonne.

  34. 34.

    chemiclord

    @Harrison Wesley: Here’s what I will say; nuclear weapons are empty sabre rattling… until they aren’t.

    At least in the case of Russian actions, U.S. Intelligence has been pretty much spot on since 2014.  So if those experts are telling President Biden that the nuclear threat is a non-zero possibility, I’m inclined to believe them, and err on the side of “caution.”

    And I get that sucks.  I get that’s unfair to the people of Ukraine that are losing their lives while Russian assholes are launching long-range attacks with impunity.  But “fair for Ukraine” would be very little comfort for the rest of the world if Putin were to decide that his shifting-by-the-hour red lines were finally crossed, and if he is going to go down, he’s going to take the rest of the world with him.

  35. 35.

    Matt

    Iran’s sending missiles that get used to attack civilians? Who do they think they are, the United States?

    The sheer sanctimony of pearl-clutching about that while simultaneously ARMING the genocide in Palestine is revolting

    To be clear: I don’t think anybody should be selling weapons to fascists who are desperately trying to stay in power by starting wars.

  36. 36.

    wjca

    @Traveller: a sea quarantine maybe…but freedom of the seas, traditions and laws and stuff.

    A sea quarentine just isn’t possible. It’s not law or tradition, it’s geography.

    Iran does ship drone (and missiles now) by sea to Russia.  But the sea in question is the Caspian.  Attacks on ports at either end might work.  But there’s no way to do a naval blocade on a body of water to which you have no access.

  37. 37.

    wjca

    @Traveller: might there be some fear that Ukraine will go off reservation as it were, and use British, Freench or US cruise missiles to hit…maybe deeply offensive targets? (the State Hermitage Museum for example?)

    Just not seeing that.  Certainly not now — there are far too many critical military targets to waste missiles on something like that.  And beyond that, there are refineries, etc. that are critical to the war effort.  Russia may waste missiles on Ukrainian muesuem, hospitals, etc.  Ukraine can’t afford to.

    EDT  IInshort, what @Jay: said.

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    KyivIndependent has more on CIA Director Burns and the nuclear stuff:

    Bill Burns, the head of the CIA, said at the Financial Times’ Weekend festival in London that he believed there was a “genuine risk” Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in the first months of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Telegraph reported on Sept. 7.

    “There was a moment in the fall of 2022 when I think there was a genuine risk of a potential use of tactical nuclear weapons,” Burns said, referring to the time around Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

    Following the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south in late 2022, the U.S. “rigorously prepared” for Russia’s use of strategic or tactical nuclear weapons, CNN reported in March, citing its undisclosed sources.

    After Russian propaganda spread reports that Ukraine allegedly intended to use a so-called “dirty bomb” against Russia, U.S. officials feared the Kremlin would use this pretext as a cover for a possible nuclear attack, according to CNN.

    U.S. President Joe Biden sent Burns to Turkey in November 2022 to meet with Sergei Naryshkin, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service. During the talks, Burns conveyed to his Russian counterpart the potential consequences of an escalation involving nuclear weapons.

    In a statement issued at the time, the White House said: “He is conveying a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia and the risks of escalation to strategic stability.”

    […]

    Of Russia’s nuclear threats, Burns said at the event: “I don’t think we can afford to be intimidated by that saber rattling or bullying, (but) we’ve got to be mindful of it.”

    […]

    I think that last excerpt is most important here. They have to game everything out. The world cannot afford surprises on this stuff.

    FWIW.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    Harrison Wesley

    @chemiclord: If we were so concerned, why didn’t we back the Ukrainians in their Istanbul negotiations, but instead urged them to keep fighting?  I’m sorry, but in my opinion the American foreign policy establishment has never seen Ukraine as a nation full of vibrant, feeling, thinking human beings bound by a common culture.  It sees Ukraine as a convenient stick with which to beat Russia.  Until it’s no longer convenient.  Then, of course, we get the Marxist Memo…..

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