There was some good conversations going on in the last post I made, talking about some quiet candidates that look like they might pull off unexpected wins.
Some knowledgeable folks talking more about Dan Osborn (I-NE), Tony Vargas (D-NE) and Yadira Careveo (D-CO)
I had mentioned I didn’t think throwing money at Boebert’s district would be wise, but, as is often the case, I could be wrong about that. Chief Oshkosh pointed us to this video, and I thought enough of it to share here.
I went ahead and donated the $20.24 to Trisha Calverese, especially since it sounds like Yadira Caraveo has some fairly full coffers.
***
Since it’s Sunday, bonus Reggie, taking matters into his own paws when dinner was late.
Let’s continue the discussion on under-the-radar candidates in your area. Otherwise, open thread
piratedan
Johnathon Nez, AZ – CD2
he’s going up against Eli Crane. For Navajo tribal President. He’s EXACTLY the guy that Four Directions is pushing to replace your MAGA du juor.
Chris T.
I’m just here to go squeeeeeee! at Reggie.
(I have a tuxedo girl kitten… well, “girl kitten”, they’re all over 15 years old now, so “old lady”, but she’s still one of the three “kittens”, adopted as part of my Foster Fail.)
Scout211
From September 3rd Axios.
(I don’t know how reliable Axios is on this but it caught my eye, being from California)
Baud
Paging Geminid
skerry
I donated $20.24 to Trisha Calverese to help get rid of Boebert
Another Scott
That video of the “old” guy is very, very well done. Thanks for the boost of CO’s pointer.
Donated.
Cheers,
Scott.
BR
I’d like to match up to $50 *per candidate* that folks can donate to young (Gen Z and Millenial) swing state downballot candidates — I’ve already given to all of them on my list, and I will do another round and would like to match folks. Here’s the ActBlue I made:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/youngswingdemcandidates
As a reminder for those who might have seen my late night comments about this list — here are the criteria: 1) swing state, 2) Gen Z or Millenial candidate, 3) active campaign presence (website or similar), 4) relatively competitive district. The goal is to help young candidates bring out younger voters in swing states, helping up and down the ballot.
VFX Lurker
@Scout211: thank you for sharing that.
I finished writing the last 25 of 200 Postcards to Swing States for CA-27, my neighboring district. I mail them out October 24th, and I hope they make a difference.
I’ll return to writing Postcards to Voters today.
The Audacity of Krope
Why tarnish the name of a classic piece of American art with that disgusting ghoul’s name?
Another Scott
@The Audacity of Krope: The “old” guy in the video called her that.
;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
The Audacity of Krope
@Another Scott: I know. I was just playin’. Tryna be all ironic and such.
Mousebumples
@BR: thanks for this and supporting so many Wisconsin candidates!
I need to wait for payday, but I’m hoping to have a little more scratch next week… Hopefully. (sigh, replaced the AC a few months ago, which cleaned out our emergency fund, and that’s usually where I borrow from for political contributions)
I’m heading home from a fun Grandparents’ Day celebration. And I saw a biiiig Harris/Walz sign off 41 near Oshkosh. (*home of Sen RoJo, R-Russia)
Still waiting on my local office to get their HarrisWalz signs in, but maybe this week… 🤞🤞
And tonight? Postcards!
West of the Rockies
@Scout211:
I wish I could say ambulatory sphincter Doug LaMalfa (1st District) looks iffy, but this largely-rural section of CA keeps sending this king of obstructionism back to D.C.
rk
I just saw the latest national polling and Trump is up by one percentage point (within the margin of error) . What on earth is going on?
The Audacity of Krope
@rk: Polling is trash. Only one poll matters…
Geoduck
@rk: Polling by who?
mrmoshpotato
Wait. Is there some Beetlejuice porno where he gives a handjob to someone in a theater?
rk
@The Audacity of Krope:
True. But if it’s trash then what are we supposed to believe. Biden was down everywhere and was supposed to be losing. She came and was up and made up Biden’s loss, but is now losing again. So which polls are we supposed to believe?
Scout211
Sorry about that. But I might actually beat you in House of Representatives misery. My Representative is the odious Tom McClintock (District 5). Ugh.
The Audacity of Krope
@rk: We believe the poll on election day. We know we have work to do. We do it.
But never tell me the odds.
rk
@Geoduck:
Sienna. Which is supposed to be a good pollster. Also men are significantly more supportive of Trump than Harris.
RevRick
Charles Gaba has identified 24 House races, which Cook Reports deems tossups, that will determine control of the House. They are:
Alaska – defending
Arizona 1 & 6
California 13, 22, 27, 41, &45
Colorado 8 – defending
Michigan 7, 8, & 10
Nebraska 2
New Jersey 7
New Mexico 2- defending
New York 4, 17, & 19
North Carolina 1- defending
Ohio 9- defending, 13- defending
Oregon 5
Pennsylvania 7- defending &8-defending
Mousebumples
@rk: shitty polls, poor samples, random variance, “unskewing” to fit the narrative… Whatever.
Idk if polls are right or not. I’m going to keep doing GOTV like we’re down and need to get more votes. Fight for every vote.
I know I’ve said this before, but I do better (mental health) when I *do* something vs refresh polling data or freak out over XYZ in the news. Action is my anti-anxiety helper.
catclub
@Scout211: There was a good bit of blame in 2022 pointed at the New York State Democrats for loss of the House. Has any of that been improved?
piratedan
@rk: true, they ARE supposed to be good, yet this time they included incomplete surveys in the mix and over sampled the usual subjects that results in the suspect leans.
Dan B
FYI I slept in this morning and didn’t find the garden post until 4 PM Eastern time. I replied to a couple questions.
Thanks for all the compliments.
West of the Rockies
@rk:
I read NYT/Sienna. The FYNYT absolutely wants a horse race. I hope Trump leading is their bias revealing itself.
RevRick
@catclub: Both California and New York acted like the red wave was real. Otherwise, Democrats overperformed historic trends. Part of the problem was there were no top line statewide races in those two states.
Geminid
@Baud: I had not seen this story, just the “sosyal medya” controversy over the three women who graduated at the top of the Army, Navy and Air Force schools. Ragip Soylu will probably write it up for Middle East Eye.
Military/civilian relations are a sensitive subject in Turkiye because of how the Army dominated civilian politics from 1960 to 2000. Turkiye is now in its longest period without a successful military coup since the Second World War.
I don’t know what the President is kicking about, but R.T. Erdogan is a crabby guy and his bark is often worse than his bite.
Steve LaBonne
@rk: All along, their crosstabs have been wack. They should be treated as an outlier and no longer as a quality pollster.
Raoul Paste
@The Audacity of Krope: Nice Star Wars ref
Librarian
The new NYT/Siena poll, which everybody on twitter is freaking out about, has Trump ahead 48 to 47.
lamh47
Sooo hey BJ. I might be getting a car sometime this month!
I found a car I like via CarMax at another site. They are having it shipped to my local CarMax so I can test drive it.
It’s a used vehicle, Lexus SUV RX350, 2020. It’s actually one of my fav years for the Lexus SUV design. Only 37K miles and if ya’ll recall my car that was stolen only had like 42k miles anyway and that one was a 2015. I barely drive my car, but I am tired of not being able to just up and go to ran an errand when I want to.
So fingers crossed the test drive is good. I have outside financing and hopefully it works out.
West of the Rockies
@RevRick:
I’m super glad that Schiff is beating hypocritical Christian (and helluva ball player) Steve Garvey. I know a lot of folks now dislike Schiff, but I’m more neutral.
BR
@Mousebumples:
Sounds great.
Steve LaBonne
@Librarian: Any poll that shows Trump up in the national popular vote can be dismissed out of hand. There is absolutely no possibility of that actually happening.
Mousebumples
@lamh47: Oooh, sounds great! Hope it works out for you.
Andrew Abshier
FL-13: Whitney Fox is within striking distance of the odious but (mostly) under the radar Republican Anna Paulina Luna. This CD is in Pinellas County, which was gerrymandered to cut out the very blue St. Petersburg downtown, and it’s listed as R+6. Before Luna won the district was represented by Charlie Crist. It’s about a 4-5 point race right now, and I think it is winnable with the abortion rights amendment on the ballot. I live just south in Sarasota County in a safe R CD, “represented” by (spit) Greg Steube (spit) who never met a gun he didn’t like or a gun regulation he didn’t want repealed, so I may go north to canvass/GOTV instead of my own county.
Westyny
@catclub: NY Democrats have justifiably taken a lot of heat for their feckless redistricting which ceded Rs some territory, no real vetting of Santos, etc. I keep plugging for Josh Riley in my district (19). The snow incumbent Molinaro (R) meeps his “centrism,” but has voted the Republican Party line over 90% of the time, including votes against women health care rights. Riley is good guy who worked for Franken’s office and was done in by the redrawing of district 19 last time. The race is again close and throwing him some scratch will always help.
Baud
@Steve LaBonne:
Agree.
Dan B
@lamh47: I hope you love the test drive. We live a half mile from a 7-11 and a mile from any decent stores. I lived two blocks from a major shopping street for 35 years so had to adjust to driving for shopping.
lamh47
@Dan B: Right…I literally wanted to go to the local lake, but it’s a drive and not just walking. I miss being able to just go places ya know.
Nelle
I’m just going to parachute in here with an on the ground report to say that I’ve been the GOTV person for the Democrats in my neighborhood. In 2020, 100% of registered Dems in my neighborhood (one way in and out, about 120 houses) voted. There was enough time to follow up with those who had requested absentee ballots but hadn’t turned them in. I joked that neighbors threw up their hands and just voted to get me off of their backs. My guess is that I had about 40-50 households and about 75 voters in 2020.
The Iowa Legislature shortened time for early and absentee ballots, making it harder to follow up in 2022.
I’m nearly finished with the first round of the neighborhood for this election (should be having a total of 3 rounds). There are now 68 households with registered Dems and 122 individual Dems. A lot of above 18’s to in their 20′ still living at home. I found at least four or five others who want to be registered, but haven’t, for various reasons. We’ll get on top of that. I have a number of neighbors who struggle with English and forms (lots of Bosnian immigrants in this neighborhood. Over 10,000 Bosnian immigrants in this suburb and stores have sections for Bosnian food).
Another Scott
@lamh47: Nice.
There have been running gags at many of the car magazines for a long time is that the RX350 is boring, but reliable and very nice.
E.g. TheAutopian.com.
;-)
Good luck!
Cheers,
Scott.
Nora
Loved that video so much I gave 20.24 also. Get rid of Boebert — wouldn’t that be lovely.
With respect to NY 17, my UU church has been working with Vote Forward and wrote (collectively) 500 letters to voters in our district. I personally wrote 40. We’re working on getting rid of Mike Lawler, and I think we should be able to do it.
Baud
@Nelle:
Thank you.
West of the Rockies
@Steve LaBonne:
I hope you are correct, but would you mind indulging me for a moment and sharing why you feel Trump is down?
I remind myself that Harris is vastly out-raising the tangerine turd; that new voter registration seems to definitely look pro-Democrat; that the DNC infrastructure is so much better than the RNC’s. I see only Harris signs in my town (Chico, CA), a town that had multiple Trump truck rallies in ’20 and lots of Trump signage.
Plus, Trump is tiredly repeating the same dreary rhetoric from 8 years ago to smaller audiences.
Yes, this is all self-soothing to decrease my anxiety.
Steve LaBonne
@Nora: Thank you. UUs represent!
Steve LaBonne
@West of the Rockies: When is the last time a Republican presidential candidate, including Trump, won the popular vote?
Geminid
@RevRick: Gaba leaves out two Democrats in very competitive districts. That would be Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA03) and Jared Golden (ME02). Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez flipped her Portland-area in 2022 and Rep. Golden flipped his Maine district in 2018.
Gaba seems to consider them insufficiently loyal to his Party, but those districts will count as much for control of the House as the ones he lists.
Mousebumples
@Nelle: thank you for what you’re doing! I remember when Iowa was leading the way on gay marriage.
lamh47
@Another Scott: Yes…reliable and boring is just want I want. The only thing “flashy” bout the car is that it’s red, but I just have a thing for red cars…so that kinda makes it more perfect…LOL
trollhattan
@Scout211:
CA has no hot statewide office contests other than the single US senate seat and hopefully Ds won’t be blase about voting because Trump has no chance. Downticket races remain important.
Too early to tell which Propositions might become hot contests. My mailbox waits in trepidation.
VeniceRiley
@Nelle: that’s good work, Nelle. I tip my hat!
RevRick
@Librarian: AND yet, it also has Harris winning the blue wall states and tied in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina
trollhattan
@Another Scott:
Heh. Yeah, any midsize Japanese SUV ranks among the most boring transportation appliances, but let me put in a plug, and by plug I mean competition for most boring for the Altima, one of which I was stuck with for a month finagling having my car fixed.
Ho lee crap. Shredded wheat with tires. And so easy to lose in a big parking lot. Literally had to hold up the remote and make it beep at me.
RevRick
RevRick
@Geminid: Very true. Meh Democrats are just as valuable in control of the House
WaterGirl
FYI: I already have a fundraiser planned for two NEBRASKA races as soon as we finish NCAAAT:
The Senate race and NE-02. I’ll be saying more about that in the post I have planned for tomorrow.
West of the Rockies
@trollhattan:
I’m surprised CA Republicans haven’t yet introduced an Eat the Homeless proposition.
trollhattan
@West of the Rockies: They probably didn’t get enough signatures in time. That’s what happened to their Recall Gavin a Second Time We Mean It! effort. They gave up last week. Said it was good enough that he’s not running for president.
Okay then.
Geminid
@RevRick: Well, I for one do not consider Reps. Gluesenkamp Perez and Golden “meh” Democrats. And I bet House Leaders Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar want them back because they are reliable caucus members. They also know their party won’t neccesarily win these districts back if they lose them this time.
West of the Rockies
@Steve LaBonne:
It’s the EC that concerns me.
ED, too, but that’s another story.//
hrprogressive
The Fascist-Friendly NYT absolutely wants to create/manifest “a horse race” / “The Trump Reich”, so, all their polling and writing ought to be taken with a grain of salt.
Anything Nate Silver says or does should be dissected from head to toe because he’s now in bed with Peter Thiel with Polymarket – a political betting site. Plus Peter Thiel is actively aiding and abetting the Global Fascist Movement, so yeah.
Again, I think there’s a fine line between “unskewing the polls” like Romney did a decade ago and being skeptical of a polling press that, at best, hasn’t really adjusted to a new modern reality and at worst, is actively putting their thumb on the scale for the Fascist GOP because that’s what they want.
Regarding Lesser Known Candidates
A district I’m near – VA02 – is one I think always needs attention. We had Elaine Luria of J6 fame for a few years, but she narrowly lost to Fascist Jen Kiggans in 2022.
The woman running to replace her – Missy Cotter Smasal – Is…more or less a different version of Elaine Luria (woman veteran, small biz owner, etc) and her issues page makes it crystal clear just how different she is from her opponent – https://missy4congress.com/issues/
VA02 is a military-heavy but swingy district, so taking out Kiggans would really help.
Cook Political has it at “Lean Republican” right now, so I admit there might be better uses of cash for closer races, but I figure it couldn’t hurt to put her name out there.
Steve LaBonne
@West of the Rockies: Yes only the electoral vote matters and I doubt Harris’s current popular vote margin is at an EC-safe level. But a poll that shows her actually losing the popular vote is simply not credible.
The Audacity of Krope
My favorite line in any of them and my hard line on the polling.
Another Scott
@trollhattan: :-)
An Altima is a huge step up from a beige Corolla! We put a green foam ball on the antenna of J’s to make it easier to find…
Cheers,
Scott.
Jess
Just sent $20.24 to Trisha. Very convincing video.
Steve in the ATL
@Nelle: you should celebrate with some rhubarb wine!
Trivia Man
@BR: Thank you! If anyone is trying to decide – I will point out that every WI Assembly district was redrawn this year in the first step to neutralize the gerrymandering. Big chance to remake the state dramatically.
Chris T.
@Another Scott:
It is in fact all that. Its only real downside is that, like many SUVs, it’s a thirsty beast (well, that and it’s a bit pricey, though probably not so much when used). The RX450h (hybrid) barely adds an mpg or two, unlike hybrid-izing a Prius or whatever.
Ruckus
@Steve LaBonne:
There is always a possibility that shitforbrains and his cohort may win. This is not likely but this country has more than enough people that likely won’t vote for a woman, especially one of color. IOW shitforbrains does have some chance, even as his brain continues to smash the shutdown or stupid button and his running mate actually just speaks at all. I am an old fart and have seen a lot of elections and voted in 3 wildly different states over my decades and have seen people who should not be allowed in public, let alone in a political office, win elections. We need to WIN this one and WIN it in as big a way as possible.
BSR
That video was as sincere and heartfelt as any I’ve seen this season. Just threw in $50 for my wife and I. We’re in Colorado (not her district) and just want her to go away!
Ruckus
@lamh47:
I see a lot of these around me in SoCal and they look nice and not too big. As long as the price is right and the car checks out service/operation wise, should be a nice car.
Also, I used to drive a lot and as I’ve gotten up there in years, family is all gone (I was the youngest, now the only one left in immediate family, all aunts and uncles gone as well) and everyone else is spread around the country, mostly I drive to go to the store. I take the bus and train to see docs and dentist, far cheaper than driving. I am starting to think of selling my car. I really do not want to be an old fart that won’t give up driving when it’s time. Or especially past time.