Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

He really is that stupid.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

Bark louder, little dog.

When we show up, we win.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Please don’t feed the bears.

Russia bombs Ukraine’s maternity hospitals; Republicans in the House can’t sort out supporting Ukraine.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

“Joe Biden deserved better than he got from some folks in his own party.”

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

We know you aren’t a Democrat but since you seem confused let me help you.

A consequence of cucumbers

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 930: Ukrainian Drones Fly Far

War for Ukraine Day 930: Ukrainian Drones Fly Far

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Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great on her week off. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, it may be Tuesday, but I’m fried. So, just the basics again tonight.

Third, AlaskaReader you are most welcome. You say thank you every night long after I’ve gone to bed, so I wanted to make sure you got a proper reply.

That should cause some puckering in Moscow.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We See What Steps Are Planned in Moscow, and We Will Act Accordingly – Address by the President

10 September 2024 – 20:04

Dear Ukrainians!

The most important things for today.

Intelligence reports of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine and the Foreign Intelligence Service. Details about the opportunities existing for Ukraine, as well as the threats. We see what steps are planned in Moscow, and we will act accordingly – exactly as tough as necessary for the sake of Ukraine.

And I want to say now to anyone in the world who still wants to help Putin in any way: we will do everything not only to defend our state and people, but to really consolidate the world for the sake of strong responses to warmongering or any attempt to prolong the war.

Our absolute priority is just peace, and every missile, every drone, and all hostile moves, every attempt to make this war longer and more brutal will inevitably be met with a response from the world. We will ensure the necessary unity of the world – no matter how difficult it is.

Today I officially introduced the new Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Andrii Sybiha. And this, in particular, will be one of his main tasks now – to reconfigure the system of Ukrainian diplomacy in such a way that we, together with our partners, can be much more active in responding to challenges.

Ukraine should be fully understood in all partner countries, especially in Europe. Ukraine needs much more substantial relations and cooperation than we have now with the countries of Latin America, with the countries of Africa, and Asia. We must realize the full potential of strategic relations with the United States. And we need a truly strategic level of cooperation with all the countries that are key to their regions but do not yet have strategic relations with Ukraine. It is very important not only to maintain our influence on international platforms, but also to be more active in protecting the interests of our country, our partners, and international law in general. This is true for the UN institutions and all other organizations that can help us add resilience to Ukraine and bring just peace closer. A truly just peace. Among the key priorities of the year is the second Peace Summit, which means maximum active work with all our partners in the groups on the Peace Formula points and on a shared perspective of ending the war. I am grateful to everyone in our Ukrainian diplomatic service who is already working in this way for the sake of our state’s priorities, and everyone who does not reach this level should decide whether they really should be in the MFA system. In these tough times of war, Ukrainian diplomats cannot afford to be careless.

And one more thing.

Today there was a report from the Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. I thank all our warriors who are holding the front in the Pokrovsk direction, who are holding the Kurakhove direction. Who are really securing our positions. And we are approaching our partners’ steps that can help now. The main thing is determination. The determination of Ukrainians is more than sufficient. The determination of our partners must become much more long-ranged. We are also working on logistics – the timely delivery of the announced support packages. Every day is a challenge. Every day is a maximum effort. We will definitely defeat the occupier!

I thank everyone who helps!

Glory to Ukraine!

The US and the UK:

This would be a welcome change.

This is what’s at stake:

The sky over Ukraine. I’m just sharing it with you to show you what it looks like, video and sound will not convey the emotions you feel when you hear this sound over your city, this is what Ukrainians feel every day.
Missiles flying calmly from one city to another.
Ukraine is asking the West to protect our skies from Russian military aircraft and missiles. The bombing of peaceful cities has not shaken the categorical position of NATO and the European Union.

Here’s Tatarigami’s take:

The path to victory, as I see it, is not reliant on any single new weapon system or platform, whether it’s the F-16 or ATACMS. The key to victory, as I see it, lies in the qualitative improvement, an incremental buildup of the Ukrainian army and its economic adaptation, combined with the delivery of long-range systems

New capabilities have made an impact, but with few exceptions, their overall effect has been limited compared to the substantial diplomatic efforts and public pressure that sought them, especially when these platforms are delivered in small numbers. What Ukraine really needs is a systematic buildup and replacement of core combat assets and an improved operational-strategic planning level.

For instance, while the addition of Bradley IFVs might seem minor and tactical, having mechanized brigades equipped with only about 10% of the required armored vehicles creates a severe operational disadvantage, even with new long-range capabilities. In such a situation, delivering IFVs and other armored fighting vehicles restores the capabilities of mechanized brigades to a level where they can effectively perform maneuvers. A good symptom of the problem is the repeated deployment of the same famous brigades to the most problematic areas of the frontline over and over as if Ukraine has no other capable units at all.

Here’s another example: When did Ukraine last receive a major batch of artillery systems, a key weapon in this theater of war? Are Ukraine’s ammunition needs being met in the third year of the invasion? You can always compare delivery numbers with documented losses from sources like Oryx, to see the scale of the problem. Just because something was delivered in 2022 doesn’t mean it remains functional: likely, it’s not anymore

Manpower issues persist, primarily due to internal factors. However, they are exacerbated by a shortage of properly armed and trained units, which leads to higher casualties and negatively affects recruitment.

Ukraine needs comprehensive and constant support across the entire spectrum: field hospital equipment, medical evacuation vehicles, mortars, artillery, IFVs, counter-battery systems, electronic warfare and communication devices, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, landmines, and drones. New weapon platforms like ATACMS or F-16s can offer valuable capabilities, such as striking logistical hubs or command centers. However, these strikes will have limited impact unless followed by a maneuver from mechanized or airmobile units to capitalize on the opportunity created

Another key aspect of this war is domestic production, where Ukraine has made significant progress compared to 2022. Back then, the idea of weekly strikes deep inside Russia, reaching as far as Novorossiysk, Moscow, or Pskov seemed unrealistic.

Additionally, initiatives like Zbroyari, launched by the Ukrainian Ministry of Strategic Industries to boost domestic military production, have not yet gained the necessary traction or international backing. This effort should have received more attention and resources than the provision of ATACMS, which, while important, is less critical from a strategic perspective than a well-developed and protected Ukrainian production. After all, it was Ukrainian-produced drones that began to change the game with a highly successful campaign against oil refineries, as this did not require any permission from the West.

Last but not least, we need significant improvements in both operational-tactical and operational-strategic command levels. Unfortunately, the existing command system has led to serious problems on the frontlines, specifically in Donetsk oblast. This is one of the most challenging problems to tackle, as it’s based on personal connections, politics, and loyalties rather than merit and result-based systems. Changes at this level cannot be addressed with simple advice or training from the West, it requires a commitment from political and top military leadership, beginning with a recognition of the problem.

DC:

From National Security Staff/National Security Council Spokesman Rear Admiral (ret) John Kirby’s statements regarding Iran supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine.

 NSC’s John Kirby: As has been reported recently, dozens of Russian military personnel have been trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close range ballistic missile system. Russia has received these shipments of Iranian Fath-360 close range ballistic missiles, and will probably employ them within weeks against Ukraine, which will of course, lead to the deaths of even more Ukrainian civilians, particularly because of the way they use ballistic missiles against civilian infrastructure.

Kirby: Moscow possesses an array of its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of these Iranian missiles, which have a maximum range of about 75 miles, could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer range targets.

Kirby: This is obviously deeply concerning, and it certainly speaks to the manner in which this partnership threatens European security and how it illustrates Iran’s destabilizing influence now…well beyond the Middle East.

Kirby: We’ve been working with our allies to ensure that there is a significant consequence to this action. Later today, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, will announce their intent to suspend certain lucrative commercial ties with Iran and their state owned business. We will supplement their action with our own sanctions that the Department of Treasury and the Department of State will be announcing later this morning, including additional measures against Iran Air, and we expect allies and partners will be announcing their own measures against Iran as well. This is a clear message from the E3 & the United States, that if Iran continues to support the war in Ukraine, there will be significant economic costs.

Kirby on anticipated sanctions on Iran Air: This is basically about the UK and E3 partners, canceling bilateral arrangements with Iran, and…canceling those bilateral arrangements which will restrict Iran Air and their services into the UK and into Europe, so it’s about restricting their movement…We are sanctioning them as well.

Well that’ll learn em!

Here’s the details from the fact sheet:

The Department of State is taking action today to constrain further Iran’s destabilizing activities, including its transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia, a serious escalation in its support for Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine.  The expanding military partnership between Iran and Russia threatens European security and illustrates how Iran’s destabilizing influence reaches beyond the Middle East to undermine security around the world.  The United States will continue to use all tools at our disposal to disrupt and counter Iran’s weapons exports, with particular attention to transfers that support Russia’s war against Ukraine.  Today’s sanctions actions build on previous Department of State designations of entities and individuals facilitating Iran-Russia cooperation, including in February 2024, October 2023, May 2023, December 2022.

The Department is designating IRAN AIR pursuant to section 1(a)(i) of Executive Order (E.O.) 13949 for materially contributing to the supply, sale, or transfer, directly or indirectly, to or from Iran, or for the use in or benefit of Iran, of arms or related materiel, including spare parts.

  • Iranian proliferators use IRAN AIR to facilitate procurement of sensitive western-origin goods on behalf of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its expeditionary Qods Force (QF) through direct Europe to Iran routes.
  • IRAN AIR has transported on numerous occasions proliferation –sensitive materiel to the IRGC QF unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) program.
  • IRAN AIR constitutes a key element of Iran’s illicit proliferation network enabling Iran’s acquisition of sensitive-western origin dual-use materials for use in the development of UAVs, some of which are provided to Russia for use in Ukraine.

The Department is designating two Russia-based shipping companies pursuant to section 1(a)(i) of E.O. 14024 for operating or having operated in the marine sector of the Russian Federation economy:

  • VAFA WHOLESALE LTD owns vessels that have transported Iranian UAV-related equipment from Iran to Russia via the Caspian Sea.

The following two vessels are being identified as property in which VAFA WHOLESALE LTD has an interest:

  • VAFA (IMO 8422670).
  • VAFA-1 (IMO 8422682).
  • SEA RIVER SERVICE LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY owns vessels that have transported munitions from Iran to Russia via the Caspian Sea for use against Ukraine.

The following three vessels are being identified as property in which SEA RIVER SERVICE LIMITED LIABILITY COMPANY has an interest:

  • OMSKIY-103 (IMO 8889385). As additional information, OMSKIY-103 transported munitions from Iran to Russia via the Caspian Sea in February 2024.
  • OMSKIY-119 (IMO 8926913).
  • ZAKAMSK (IMO 8951413).

Sanctions Implications

As a result of today’s action, and in accordance with E.O.s 13949 and 14024, all property and interests in property of the designated persons described above that are in the United States or in possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).  Additionally, all individuals or entities that have ownership, either directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked.  All transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons are prohibited unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC or exempt.  These prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any blocked person and the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.  Additionally, the entry of designated individuals into the United States is suspended pursuant to Presidential Proclamation 8693.

Petitions for removal from the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List may be sent to: [email protected].  Petitioners may also refer to the Department of State’s Delisting Guidance page.

Iran may be the most sanctioned state in the history of sanctions. Not a single one has ever deterred them before and I don’t expect these will have any more influence than any previous rounds.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landbergis is, as usual, correct in his estimation of the effects of these new sanctions:

Ukraine now has its own Rangers!

Kharkiv:

For you debate watchers tonight:

Kherson Oblast:

The Kursk cross border offensive:

More on the drone strikes in Moscow:

The Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow once again demonstrate the futility of weapons restrictions and the Kremlin’s lack of red lines. This is the largest drone attack on Moscow from Ukraine. Drones hit Ramenskoye, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky. Several drones hit residential
1/11Image
buildings. This may be due to the work of Russian air defense. Ukraine is aiming at military targets because bombing civilians does not improve the situation at the front. Drones do not cause much destruction since their warhead is about 10 times smaller than that of Russian
2/11Image
FAB-500 bombs, but they have a psychological effect. Russia is not going to stop. The loss of part of the Kursk region, huge losses of personnel, a declining economy – Russia is not going to withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory. In this case, the aggressor can only
3/11Image
be stopped by moving the war to Russian territory and destroying the Putin regime. The Kremlin will survive the loss of Kursk, but the landings in Moscow are very close to the work of many propagandists and the Russian leadership. And this worries those on whom Putin’s
4/11Image
regime relies. Drone attacks become commonplace and will only happen more often. However, threats to Putin’s regime do not only come from Ukraine. Internal ethnic conflicts with residents of the Caucasus are becoming more frequent, and on September 3, another fight on this
5/11Image
basis took place in the city of Anapa. As the Anapa Media portal wrote, on the night of September 3, on Pionersky Prospekt, a girl refused to meet a representative of one of Russia’s neighboring republics and received a portion of insults. When other guys stood up for her,
6/11Image
a crowd of Caucasians attacked them and began to beat them up. Later, the commander of “Akhmat” Apti Alaudinov stood up for them, blaming the girl for everything. Russia is losing strength, and this is felt by representatives of those peoples who have been humiliated and
7/11Image
discriminated against throughout their coexistence with Russia. Tensions are growing between Akhmat and Russian troops. If Russia starts to fall apart, it will be because of the war in Ukraine, but it will start with Chechnya and Dagestan. Russia is still trying to advance,
8/11Image
but the advance in the Pokrovsky direction has slowed. “Agency” published the size of the territories captured by Russia from August to September based on DeepState data and it is clear that the advance has slowed. Russia is starting to show signs of resource problems, but
9/11Image
Ukraine in turn has also transferred additional forces and more experienced brigades, like Azov, to stop the advance. The intensity of the offensive remains high, but the attacks are repelled more successfully. Ukraine is having a very hard time. Every day. Two and a half
10/11Image
years. The length of the entire front line is more than 3 thousand km. The line of active combat operations is more than 970 km, but Ukraine is not defeated and it is obvious that Russia cannot win. However, how much longer the war will continue, no one can say.
11/11Image

Voronezh Oblast, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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    9Comments

    3. 3.

      YY_Sima Qian

      Thank you Adam!

      Since the U.S. has been so effective in the extraterritorial application of its unilateral sanctions on Iran, the EU’s economic ties to Iran have been quite limited, meaning the EU has very limited leverage to punish Iran for selling SRBMs to Russia in the support of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine (& this inimical to EU interest). The U.S. has zero leverage over Iran.

      All of these are the long term consequences of US FP for decades being overly reliant upon sanctions & other coercive tools, often for domestic political posturing, they rapidly reach diminishing returns.

      Perhaps dangle a return to some form of the JPCOA in return for Iran halting all sales of drones & ballistic missiles to Russia?

      Of course, we’ll see how the Iranian missiles actually perform.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Jay

      KSE found the west was still not sanctioning the core ships in the Russian shadow fleet. From January 2023 to June 2024, it said, 307 shadow tankers carried Russian crude oil at least once but only a subset, identified in the study as 45 tankers, operated consistently across all six quarters. It said that of this “core” shadow fleet only seven vessels have been sanctioned by the US, EU or UK.

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/09/russia-shadow-oil-fleet-gaza-ceasefire-plan-us-uk-talks-london-antony-blinken-david-lammy-ukraine

      The Sanctions regime has been less than toothless.

      So far this year, Europe has bought more ruZZian LNG than from the US and all other suppliers combined.

      ruZZia’s LNG fleet relies on 3 French ports for repairs, service, upgrades and inspections. As a trial run, because ruZzia see’s actual sanctions coming, eventually, it has sent a non-Ice rated LNG carrier along the Eastern Passage on a dangerous trial voyage to China.

      The “ghost fleet” relies on Western parts, Western Ports, Western resupply to keep operating. This is what keeps the Venezuelan, Iran, China, ruZZia, beloruZZian, India trade alive and billions still flowing into Putin and his cronies pockets.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Traveller

      What happened today in Philadelphia was more important than anything on any of the many battlefields scattered across Ukraine, (imo).

      Harris’ performance by nearly every measure seemed to be the opposite of President Joe Biden’s in June, with sharp, focused answers designed to showcase the contrast between her and Trump, whereas Biden at times was muddled, halting and at times incoherent. Harris used her body language and facial expressions to confront Trump and express that she found his answers ridiculous or amusing — or both — a pronounced change from Biden’s slack-jawed expression when Trump attacked him.

      In one moment, Harris turned to Trump and said that as vice president, she had spoken to foreign leaders who “are laughing at Donald Trump,” and said she had spoken to military leaders, “and they say you’re a disgrace.”

      snip

      Trump also twice declined to say that it was in the best interest of the U.S. for Ukraine to win its war against Russia. Harris said it was an example of why America’s NATO allies were thankful he was no longer in office, as she and Biden have sent tens of billions of dollars to help Kyiv fend off Russia’s invasion. 

      The above is from the AP…and I wish I had a complete transcript…but it went well for Ukraine tonight.

      *********

      As for the US objection to supplying long range missiles…be they US or British…that is falling away apparently, but mainly because Iran is furnishing same.

      A better reason, and maybe secretly truer, is that I’ve seen several drone strikes on Moscow or Russian high-rise apartments over the past two weeks…I still say this is a bad look for Ukraine. But it can be said, again probably truthfully, Ukraine was attempting to hit the military airfield 2 miles away, but domestic produced drones can never have the almost perfect accuracy of an advanced cruise missile. So please give us better stuff…and our targeting will be more precise.

      If this argument is not being made in the highest halls of defense, it should be. Best Wishes,

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Jay

      @Traveller:

      A better reason, and maybe secretly truer, is that I’ve seen several drone strikes on Moscow or Russian high-rise apartments over the past two weeks…I still say this is a bad look for Ukraine. But it can be said, again probably truthfully, Ukraine was attempting to hit the military airfield 2 miles away, but domestic produced drones can never have the almost perfect accuracy of an advanced cruise missile. So please give us better stuff…and our targeting will be more precise.

      So far, a lot of the “collateral” damage by “Ukrainian” drones hasn’t been by “Ukrainian” drones, it’s been by ruZZian Air Defense missiles going astray

      The damage shown from the latest strike against Moscow on the apartment building, was not from a drone. The Ukrainian drones sent to Moscow, can take out one apartment at best, not 17 in a single strike. The warhead had to be at least 200 kilograms. That is standard for an OSA anti-aircraft missile.

      Reply

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