Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, how/why is it only Wednesday?
Third, air raid alerts are up over all of eastern and central Ukraine as of 8:05 PM EDT/3:05 PM local time in Ukraine. No indication on the air raid alert maps of Russian strategic aviation up. Yet.
Despite everyone’s expectations, hopes, wishcasting, Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Lammy did not go to Ukraine today to provide Ukraine permission to use long ranger US and British weapons systems and munitions against legitimate military targets that Russia has moved farther east.
Asked about Ukraine use of long-range missiles to strike Russia, Blinken says, “[W]e have adjusted and adapted as needs have changed… and I have no doubt that we’ll continue to do tha…” Says he will share what he has learned with Biden, who meets with Starmer Friday in DC.
— Olivia Gazis (@Olivia_Gazis) September 11, 2024
As U.S.-UK-Ukraine joint presser ends and delegations depart, air raid sirens sound over Kyiv – pic.twitter.com/AhgEZW55il
— Olivia Gazis (@Olivia_Gazis) September 11, 2024
Reuters has more details:
KYIV, Sept 11 (Reuters) – The U.S. and British foreign ministers met President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Wednesday on a visit interrupted by air raid warnings, unveiling new support but no breakthrough on the long-range strikes into Russia desperately sought by Ukraine.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British foreign minister David Lammy, in Kyiv at a critical juncture in Ukraine’s struggle against Russia, said they talked about Ukraine’s war goals and what they could do to help.
“Among other things, we discussed long-range fires, but a number of other things as well. And as I said at the outset, I’m going to take that discussion back to Washington to brief the president on what I heard,” Blinken told reporters.
Zelenskiy has been pleading with Kyiv’s allies for months to let Ukraine fire Western missiles including long-range U.S. ATACMS and British Storm Shadows deep into Russian territory to limit Moscow’s ability to launch attacks.
“We are listening carefully and, of course, we are having discussions on a range of issues, including the military equipment that Ukraine needs to win,” Lammy told a news conference alongside Blinken and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
The British foreign minister suggested those discussions could continue for a few more weeks, a remark that will disappoint Ukrainians hoping the West would quickly discard fears of escalation.
Ahead of the news conference, Zelenskiy was asked whether he was optimistic the United States and Britain would greenlight deeper strikes into Russia, and he quipped that it depended instead on the “optimism” of Ukraine’s partners.
“Let’s count on some strong decisions at least. For us it’s very important for today,” he told reporters in Kyiv.
In a comment posted on his Telegram channel, Zelenskiy described the talks as “long and meaningful”.
“All the key issues were discussed,” he wrote.
“What’s important is that all the Ukrainian arguments were heard. And that concerns long-range weaponry, supplying our front-line brigades and the general strategy of moving strategically towards a just peace.”There is nervousness in Washington and some European capitals that lifting the restrictions on long-range attacks could provoke Russia towards a direct conflict with the West, at the same time as a recognition that Ukraine needs more help if it is to swing the war in its favour.
The speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, said Moscow would consider the United States and its allies to be parties to the war if they allowed Kyiv to use long-range weapons to strike deep in Russia.Overnight,
U.S. President Joe Biden suggested there was room for compromise, saying his administration was “working that out now” when asked if the United States would lift the restrictions on the use of long-range weapons.
The air raid alert sounded twice during Blinken and Lammy’s visit to Kyiv, before and after the news conference. A wreath-laying ceremony they were due to attend was cancelled.
Both alerts appeared to have been sounded over ballistic missile threats, but it was unclear what any missile had been targeting or what happened to the missiles.
More at the link!
We’re now almost three years into Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and ten and a half years into the initial invasion and the US DOES NOT have an actual strategy for Ukraine! Major General (ret) Mick Ryan wrote about that today and we’ll cover his assessment after the jump, but I’ll just reiterate that the lack of clearly articulated policy and a properly developed strategy that is feasible, suitable, and acceptable is why the Biden administration cannot seem to get its act together regarding Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy addressed the fourth Summit of the International Crimea Forum. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine Does Not Trade Its Land and Does Not Abandon Its People – Speech by the President at the Fourth Summit of the International Crimea Platform
11 September 2024 – 17:57
Dear attendees, dear participants, guests, our partners, friends!
Thank you very much for being with us today.
Mr. Mustafa Dzhemilev, all representatives of the Mejlis!
Dear Crimean Tatar people! All our Ukrainian people!
Today we have Nariman Dzhelyal with us. A man who is well known in Ukraine. The Deputy Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people. By the way, he is a participant of our First Summit of the Crimea Platform. Like many other people whose hearts belong to Crimea and Ukraine, the Russian occupiers tried to deprive him of his home and captured Nariman as a prisoner. They captured him and kept him behind bars for almost three years. But Ukraine does not forget its prisoners and it has not forgotten Nariman Dzhelyal. We freed him, brought him home, brought him back to Ukraine, and gave him back his freedom. And this is not just about one person. This is about our fundamental policy. The policy of our state, the policy on Crimea. The policy on all our temporarily occupied territory and on all our Ukrainian citizens who have been deprived of their freedom by Russia. We will not leave anything or anyone in captivity. I would like all our citizens in Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine to hear this – no matter where you are now, and no matter how difficult it is for you. This is part of our morality. Ukraine does not trade its land and does not abandon its people. And when we work with the world for a just end to this war, we remind them not only of the land that now – temporarily – bears the occupier’s tricolor, but also of people’s fates that cannot be left destroyed. We in Ukraine do not forget many people. And today at the Memorial I remembered many of them, we remembered them. And we must do it all the time: remind the world, remind the loved ones and families of our prisoners that we know, we remember, and we fight for them. We remember Server Mustafayev, Leniye Umerova, Amet Suleymanov, Tofik Abdulhaziiev, Vladyslav Yesypenko, and all other Crimean prisoners – prisoners of Russia.
And the same way we remember all our people – civilians and military, adults and children – who are now in Russian captivity, or who may not be behind bars, but who are unfortunately forced to go through the humiliation of occupation – one of the greatest abuses for any free person. This is the evil that should have remained forever in the distant past, but which Russia has brought to this time, taking human lives. I ask everyone present here to observe a minute of silence to honor the memory of our people who were killed by the Russian war, who were killed by Russia in captivity, in occupation, during deportation.
Thank you.
Dear friends!
Every our citizen, all our people on all the temporarily occupied Ukrainian land, all our people who are in captivity and waiting for their release, should see the most important thing – our Ukrainian flag. To see it, to feel freedom, because they will be liberated. And also, our whole country deserves reliable, guaranteed security; and the occupier must inevitably be held accountable for all the crimes of war. All this should be a just end to the war. I want to thank all those who make this happen, who fight and work for Ukraine, for their native home. I thank all our partners – those who are present, and those who are helping us, but are not here now. Those who are really with us all the time, supporting us; and I urge everyone not to waste time, and not to miss opportunities. And I appeal to the members of the Crimea Platform: we need maximum support to bring people back from captivity and to stop all Russian abuses.
Why are Crimean Tatars persecuted in the occupied Crimea? Why have there been 10 years of repression against Muslims and many others who just want to live their lives freely? Why are most of the people in Russian captivity brutally tortured? We cannot turn a blind eye to all this. And I urge, first of all, the states of our region, and these are Muslim societies – both Türkiye and Azerbaijan –please, show your leadership and help us stand up against injustice and abuse. You need to be heard. We desperately need your voices. Especially to counter the evil that Russia is doing to the Crimean Tatar people. And we urge the countries that are working to implement the Peace Formula – and there are already almost a hundred countries from all parts of the world: convince your partners who are still holding back from working with us – convince them that true peace must have no alternatives. No frozen occupations! No people left behind in captivity! No repressions forgotten and thus seemingly forgiven by the world. When we remember the victims of the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people and today, we opened the Memorial in Kyiv that will preserve the memory of this crime against the people, we affirm that no crime of the occupier should remain unanswered. When we insist on a just end to the war, when we remind the world that the occupation of our Crimea was the beginning of this war, we fight for international law and the security of every nation. When our warriors liberate the Black Sea from Russia’s military presence, we prove to everyone in the world that there are no omnipotent aggressors. And when our Ukrainian drones and missiles, our warriors, deprive the occupier of its tranquility, we all feel that tranquility will definitely return to Ukraine and for Ukraine. And we all want peace together. We all need security together. So, we all have to work together to advance Ukraine’s victory – a truly lasting peace. I am confident: we will be able to achieve this – to achieve real peace, just peace, and above all lasting peace. We see it. And we will see, I am sure, a free Crimea.
I want to thank you all once again for always standing with Ukraine! Glory to all our warriors, to all our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
And here’s the video of President Zelenskyy’s remarks at the opening of the Memorial to the Victims of the Crimean Tatar Genocide.
On behalf of the Ukrainian people, I extend our heartfelt condolences to the families and close ones of the 9/11 victims.
We join our key ally, the United States, and the entire American people in today’s commemoration of those who perished as a result of this heinous crime. We… pic.twitter.com/SgFb6nH7hG
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 11, 2024
On behalf of the Ukrainian people, I extend our heartfelt condolences to the families and close ones of the 9/11 victims.
We join our key ally, the United States, and the entire American people in today’s commemoration of those who perished as a result of this heinous crime. We honor all of those who worked tirelessly in the aftermath of the attack to help others, often sacrificing their lives to do so.
We mourn alongside you, our American friends. We, Ukrainians, are all too familiar with the pain and grief of families who have lost loved ones as a result of terror.
We are determined to defend our common values against terror and aggression. Every peace-loving nation and every family deserves to live in safety. We must and will stand together with our allies to ensure this. Terror must never go unpunished.
The cost:
Tomorrow in the Central Synagogue there will be a farewell to my son Matityagi (Anton), who died at the front defending Ukraine pic.twitter.com/b93bNAxPxj
— Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine Moshe Azman (@RabbiUkraine) September 11, 2024
Lithuania:
Lithuania is providing 10 million euros to finance our long-range capabilities, including the Palanytsia rocket-drone. This is a huge support that will help Ukraine defend itself even more effectively. — minister @rustem_umerov.
We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for… pic.twitter.com/nddJWUgdS5
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 11, 2024
Lithuania is providing 10 million euros to finance our long-range capabilities, including the Palanytsia rocket-drone. This is a huge support that will help Ukraine defend itself even more effectively. — minister
@rustem_umerov.We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for their staunch support!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹
Germany:
⚡️ Zelenskyy: “I know nothing about Scholz’s peace plan. There can be no plans for us without Ukraine, and I’m not sure that such plans even exist,”
📷: @APUkraine pic.twitter.com/VWBfBRybnf
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) September 11, 2024
That should leave a mark, but I’m not sure you can shame the shameless.
The UK:
In his first visit to Kyiv UK Foreign Secretary will announce at least £600 million worth of support to Ukraine
-£242 million announced for 2024 to 2025 for immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation needs as well as support to reforms, recovery and reconstruction.
-$484… pic.twitter.com/ftpiXgTTJI
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024
In his first visit to Kyiv UK Foreign Secretary will announce at least £600 million worth of support to Ukraine
-£242 million announced for 2024 to 2025 for immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation needs as well as support to reforms, recovery and reconstruction.
-$484 million worth of loan guarantees for World Bank lending before the end of the year, to bolster Ukraine’s economic stability.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said:
“The UK’s support to Ukraine is unwavering. Our commitment of over £600 million worth of support is the latest installment in our enduring support to Ukraine. This will provide vital support to Ukrainians as they continue to endure relentless Russian attacks.”
The US:
Let’s start with the better news:
US Secretary of State, during his visit to Kyiv announced the allocation of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the total amount of more than $700 million:
-$325 million to restore Ukrainian energy infrastructure and power grids;
-$290 million to provide basic services – including… pic.twitter.com/XmkFWPT5QD
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024
US Secretary of State, during his visit to Kyiv announced the allocation of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the total amount of more than $700 million:
-$325 million to restore Ukrainian energy infrastructure and power grids;
-$290 million to provide basic services – including safe drinking water, food and medicine – to millions of people who have been forced to flee their homes;
-$102 million for humanitarian demining.
European Pravda has the details: (machine translated)
During a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, September 11, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken announced the allocation of humanitarian and other assistance to Ukraine totaling more than $ 700 million.
He said this at a press conference together with the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Great Britain, according to “European Truth”.
Blinken stressed that Russia is once again trying to attack Ukrainian energy, “to use the cold as a weapon against the Ukrainian people.”
“That is why today we are announcing the allocation of $ 325 million in new funding for the restoration of Ukrainian energy and electricity networks,” – he announced, adding that a meeting of the Group of Seven Plus will be held in the near future, also dedicated to helping Ukraine’s energy.
The US Secretary of State also announced $ 290 million in humanitarian support to provide basic services – including safe drinking water, food and medicine – to millions of people in Ukraine and the region who have been forced to flee their homes.
“Finally, we are announcing the allocation of $ 102 million in additional funding for humanitarian demining to help neutralize landmines and ammunition left by Russia throughout Ukraine,” Blinken added.
It will be recalled that the heads of US and British diplomatic missions Anthony Blinken and David Lemmy on Wednesday arrived together in Kyiv.
Against this background, Britain announced the selection at least £ 242 million to support Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian attacks, as well as the deployment of $ 484 million in financial support and military equipment.
If you’re wondering why the Secretary of State had to go to Kyiv to announce this, I’ll remind everyone that the Federal fiscal year ends on 30 September. If you do not spend all of your travel budget, or any other part of your budget, by the end of the fiscal year, you don’t get as much next year. Of course, that is predicated on Congress actually passing the legislation to fund the US government past 30 September 2024.
In less good news.
‼️ In a separate letter, a group of key House Republicans also urged Joe Biden to let Ukraine strike targets deep inside Russia. “The administration’s concerns about escalation have been consistently invalidated since Day One of the war. Neither Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided… pic.twitter.com/LX3zxSbRLD
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 11, 2024
Here’s the full text of both tweets from Voice of American News reporter Ostap Yarysh:
‼️ In a letter to @POTUS, a bipartisan group of lawmakers from the Congressional Ukraine Caucus called to lift restrictions on striking inside Russia with long-range weapons. “We write to request that you immediately end limitations on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons provided by the US and other NATO allies to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia. … [These restrictions] are inconsistent with those that we would ever accept for our own operations or those we place on other security partners who use American weapons to defend their sovereignty and people, such as Israel.”
‼️ In a separate letter, a group of key House Republicans also urged Joe Biden to let Ukraine strike targets deep inside Russia. “The administration’s concerns about escalation have been consistently invalidated since Day One of the war. Neither Ukraine’s use of U.S.-provided weapons in Russia nor its military incursion into Russia’s Kursk region – the first foreign occupation of Russian territory since World War II – have triggered a Russian escalatory response.”
Here’s the actual letters.
As I indicated above, Australian Major General (ret) Mick Ryan dove deep into the fact that the Biden administration has gone almost three years without a strategy for Ukraine.
In the past 24 hours, it has been reported that the Biden administration has finally submitted a strategy for supporting #Ukraine to the U.S. Congress. What is the current U.S. strategy for Ukraine, what might the new strategy look like and will it influence on the trajectory of the war? 1/19 🧵2/ Currently, there is no published U.S. strategy specifically for the war in #Ukraine. After 31 months, the Biden administration is still using crisis management, speeches and slogans such as ‘for as long as it takes’ rather than developing and executed a clear, well resourced strategy for Ukraine.3/ The key elements of the U.S. approach since the beginning of the war have been: 1. Providing military assistance to Ukraine; 2. Rallying international support to provide economic, humanitarian & military aid; 3. Leading development & implementation of economic sanctions; & 4. Avoiding a war between the U.S. & Russia.4/ The lack of a clear U.S. strategy for #Ukraine is hardly a new issue. Several organisations have proposed strategies for the U.S. approach to the war. In May this year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies proposed a plan for Victory in Ukraine encompassing five strategic initiatives.
Victory in Ukraine Starts with Addressing Five Strategic ProblemsThe new assistance package passed by Congress requires the administration to produce a U.S. strategy for supporting Ukraine. This piece outlines five key issues this strategy should address.https://www.csis.org/analysis/victory-ukraine-starts-addressing-five-strategic-problems5/ What might an explicit U.S. strategy seek to achieve, and what might its major components be? In essence, what will be the purpose of the strategy and its key lines of effort?6/ The most important element of the strategy will be the purpose of U.S. support that is described in the document. Based on a realistic diagnosis of Ukrainian and Russian capacity, and the current situation in the war, the purpose should include a clear vision of the outcome, or the end state, of the war that the U.S. seeks.7/ The strategy might employ existing statements on Ukraine such as a 2022 opinion piece from the U.S. President. Biden wrote in a May 2022 New York Times op-ed about Ukraine that “America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.”8/ However, a clear end state is insufficient. What strategic tasks might be needed to achieve this?9/ Just ‘defending Ukraine’ is insufficient. The new U.S. strategy, if it is to have any impact, must shift to ‘defeat Russia in Ukraine’ as a key objective. This will influence thinking in Europe and message Putin that he will not be allowed to ‘win by waiting out’ the West. It should also inform the amount and pace of support for Ukraine.10/ Another objective must be to sustain the international coalition that is supporting Ukraine. Across an array of military and economic support initiatives, this coalition is providing an enormous amount of support to Ukraine and this need to be sustained, if not increased in size and speed of delivery.11/ A third objective should be investment in defence industry to hasten support to Ukraine, rebuild U.S. war stocks and to deter Chinese adventurism. This might include increased defence production in the US, and among its allies, as well as additional sanctions and covert action to interfere with defence production in Russia and unfriendly nations.12/ A 4th objective will be achieving increased diplomatic support for Ukraine from the international community and lessen the tendency of fence-sitting nations to tacitly support Russia through procuring cheap energy or not supporting Ukraine in the United Nations. Related to this must be increased efforts to counter Russian misinformation, and its amplification by countries such as China.13/ These objectives would underpin ‘winning the war’. But a U.S. strategy should also anticipate and support Ukraine ‘winning the peace’.14/ Winning the Peace objectives would include security guarantees for Ukraine (including support for its entry into NATO and bilateral arrangements), support for reconstruction in Ukraine and the support for pursuing and prosecuting Russian war criminals. Collectively, this will probably be a decades long undertaking.15/ Nothing in this proposed strategy is simple, cheap or quick. But that is not what strategy is about.16/ The U.S. will need to move beyond policies and statements which provide instant gratification to a strategy that underpins a theory of victory for Ukraine, guarantees its long-term security – and provides reassurance for other U.S. allies about the capacity and reliability of the U.S. in Europe and other parts of the world.17/ Time will tell whether the new U.S. strategy shifts thinking about U.S. support for Ukraine. It could be a consequential document that sets a different and more audacious policy for U.S. support to Ukraine. Alternatively, it might be just more of what we have seen in the past 31 months, and then die a quiet death in early 2025.18/ But, once it is leaked, which is almost certain, many will be watching for insights to hopefully answer a key question that remains unclear at present: does the U.S really want Ukraine to win? Read my full article on this topic here: mickryan.substack.com/p/a-us-strateg…
19/ Thank you to the following for the links and images used in this thread: @DefenceU @CSIS
The Biden administration is definitely in Lessons from Alice territory.
Alice: “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”
The Cheshire Cat: “That depends a good deal on where you want to get to.”
Alice: “I don’t much care where.”
The Cheshire Cat: “Then it doesn’t much matter which way you go.”
Alice: “…so long as I get somewhere.”
The Cheshire Cat: “Oh, you’re sure to do that, if only you walk long enough.”
We used to use the above in Seminar 12 at USAWC. We applied these lessons in the following way:
If you don’t know where you’re going, it really doesn’t matter which path you take.
If you don’t know where you’re going, you probably won’t know if you’ve arrived.
If you don’t know where you’re going, no matter where you are… you’re there.
If you don’t know where you are, you probably can’t chart a course to where you want to go.
Decisiveness comes from knowing the desired endstate!
In World War II, the U.S. made the right choice by helping liberate Europe, turning Europe into one of the most prosperous places on Earth. If Ukraine falls to Russia, a possibility more real than many pro-Ukrainians think, it will undermine the US-created postwar order.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 11, 2024
After watching Blinken/Lammy presser, with ballistic missiles threat over Kyiv, I’ve got one question: how many more Ukrainians have to be butchered by Russia before we’re allowed to hit back? Words of support won’t win this war. We need the right to defend ourselves. That simple pic.twitter.com/RG39IMEl50
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 11, 2024
The DPRK:
North Korea has continued to supply advanced short-range ballistic missiles, specifically the Hwasong-11, to Russia despite sanctions. Investigators from Conflict Armament Research, who analyzed remnants of these missiles in Kyiv on September 3, found that at least one missile… pic.twitter.com/B2YNQL69cQ
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 11, 2024
North Korea has continued to supply advanced short-range ballistic missiles, specifically the Hwasong-11, to Russia despite sanctions. Investigators from Conflict Armament Research, who analyzed remnants of these missiles in Kyiv on September 3, found that at least one missile used in an August 18 attack was produced this year. Missiles from July and August lacked clear manufacturing dates.
https://nytimes.com/2024/09/11/us/russia-north-korea-missiles-ukraine.html
Iran:
Satellite imagery has captured a Russian-flagged cargo ship suspected of transporting ballistic missiles from Iran docked at a port in Russia – Sky News
Port Olya 3 vessel had shipped around 220 short-range ballistic missiles via the Caspian Sea to Russia. The source told the… https://t.co/UFm4tQnmP5 pic.twitter.com/bdOOV3EoUZ
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 11, 2024
Satellite imagery has captured a Russian-flagged cargo ship suspected of transporting ballistic missiles from Iran docked at a port in Russia – Sky News
Port Olya 3 vessel had shipped around 220 short-range ballistic missiles via the Caspian Sea to Russia. The source told the news network that the ship arrived at the Russian port on 4 September.
It is believed the Fateh-360 ballistic missiles – with a range of more than 70 miles – were loaded on to a large cargo train. The Ukrainian source said an assumption is that they will be sent to a military training ground called Ashuluk for tests and to enable further training before they are used on the battlefield.
The Ukrainians have brought down another Russian Su-30.
Aaaaaaaand Russians confirm the loss of a Sukhoi Su-30SM that was supposedly downed over the Black Sea today. pic.twitter.com/nG6ZI4V64S
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 11, 2024
/3. Russian sources say that pilots of the Su-30SM which was downed over the Black Sea are dead. pic.twitter.com/xMgo3cbaYB
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024
Here’s the full text of tweet 2:
/2. Claims from Ukrainian sources regarding the Russian Su-30:
“Yesterday, around 11:40 p.m., an enemy Su-30SM tactical aircraft “disappeared” over the Black Sea after launching Kh-31P missiles targeting Odesa region.
Today, search and rescue operations are ongoing at the place of its disappearance (63 km from Zaliznyi Port, Kherson region).
There was no information about the two crew members, there is a possibility that both did not survive.”
https://t.me/war_monitor/20622
Not quite sure where in Ukraine this was:
And now we have a night-time interception of a Russian surveillance drone Zala.
Ukraine seems to be effectively ramping up its response to the increasingly massive presence of Russian eyes in the Ukrainian skies.
Vid published by @BackAndAlive pic.twitter.com/cwcbERHACE
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 11, 2024
We appear to have a new Orlan interception record:
Claimed, interception of the Russian Orlan reconnaissance drone at an altitude of 4060 meters.https://t.co/bh2jdwoDpf https://t.co/LEy8RGL2QU pic.twitter.com/HSN2urTQIe
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 11, 2024
The old record didn’t even last two weeks!
Konotop:
Russia has struck an apartment building in downtown Konotop. According to the city mayor, first responders are currently working to extinguish the fire. There are reports of injuries. More details will follow soon
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 11, 2024
Donetsk Oblast:
Russian forces just attacked a busy village center in Donetsk oblast with cluster munitions. I was there and have seen one civilian killed and at least two more injured. Not publishing photos for now. The intensity of Russian attacks is only escalating here in eastern Ukraine.
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) September 11, 2024
The Pokrovsk front:
Updated map showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front, around Klishchiivka, and north of Krasnohorivka. It also shows expanded assessed Russian control north of Chasiv Yar and expanded grey zone in Kursk from recent Russian advances. According to the map, Russian forces are… https://t.co/dXvxklWbXg pic.twitter.com/eGy4tjozOY
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 11, 2024
Updated map showing Russian advances on the Pokrovsk front, around Klishchiivka, and north of Krasnohorivka. It also shows expanded assessed Russian control north of Chasiv Yar and expanded grey zone in Kursk from recent Russian advances. According to the map, Russian forces are less than 8km from Pokrovsk.
“It is highly likely that Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to completely abandon the bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the direction of Nevelske and retreat to the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line.
The situation in the Selidove area has deteriorated significantly, with the… pic.twitter.com/VcoAfnkJrF
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 11, 2024
“It is highly likely that Ukrainian Defense Forces will be forced to completely abandon the bridgehead east of the Vovcha River in the direction of Nevelske and retreat to the Hirnyk–Kurakhivka line.
The situation in the Selidove area has deteriorated significantly, with the enemy very close to entering the city from the east and northeast. They also managed to advance west of Novohrodivka.”
They also report that elements from Russia’s 61st Naval Infantry Brigade has been redeployed from Kherson oblast to Komarovka in Kursk Oblast.
https://cdsdailybrief.substack.com/p/corrected-date-russias-war-on-ukraine-982
Belgorod Oblast, Russia:
This is an interesting little story; someone (either local partisans or Ukrainian infiltrators) blew up a railway line as a Russian freight train was passing, causing derailment and severe damage to the locomotive and train cars. https://t.co/ob1nqdPyLD pic.twitter.com/MpMyK3iCLB
— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) September 11, 2024
Murmansk, Russia:
Russian Telegram channels report that Murmansk airport is closed due to a threat of a drone attack. No flights in or out.
Murmansk is almost 2,000 km away from Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/33HnuuHFcc
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 11, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
The world must never forget what rage, impunity, and hostility lead to. They lead to terrorism. To horrific crimes against the state and humanity as a whole. Today, I want to embrace all those who lost loved ones on September 11th. I will remember them with you forever.… pic.twitter.com/J7S2u439xs
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 11, 2024
The world must never forget what rage, impunity, and hostility lead to. They lead to terrorism. To horrific crimes against the state and humanity as a whole. Today, I want to embrace all those who lost loved ones on September 11th. I will remember them with you forever.
Open thread!
Anoniminous
Thank you for doing this
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous: You’re welcome.
I will be very glad when it is no longer necessary.
Gin & Tonic
many will be watching for insights to hopefully answer a key question that remains unclear at present: does the U.S really want Ukraine to win?
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I think, despite Blinken apparently saying win today in Kyiv, that it has so far been they don’t want Ukraine to lose. Which is not the same as win. If they do ever create and release a strategy, it will be interesting to see what the ends are.
Shalimar
Hypothetically, if missiles attacking Kiev take out Blinken, do we replace him with someone who actually cares about Ukrainian casualties?
Parfigliano
Nice weapons we give Ukraine. Be even nicer if we would take the chain off and let Ukraine hunt with them.
Anonymous At Work
How much is the lack of strategy a lack of Biden not knowing if he can deliver on promised terms because TFG wants to gift Ukraine to Putin?
Adam L Silverman
@Parfigliano: One of the major problems, that I covered last week, is the reporting that the UK is basically out of storm shadows because the production is very slow and limited. We have the same problem with ATACMS. Should Biden decide to change his mind on this in the next few weeks, it won’t make a difference because neither the US or the UK have any more of these weapons to send right now.
Aziz, light!
Hey Joe, where you going without a gun in your hand?
Either lead or get out the way.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: If Russia had just re-invaded last month, you could argue they’re trying to work out what they could do with only four months left in his term and the possibility that Trump has the same 30% chance he had in 2016 and 2020 to get elected. The problem is that Russia re-invaded 31 months ago. That’s 31 months without a strategy.
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
Technically, it has been 126 months that the US has had no strategy, 78 months if you remove the Dolt 45 Era.
The US should have started on a strategy and end goal in March, 2014.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Yep.
Adam L Silverman
I’m going to rack out. Catch everyone on the flip.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1833806917988143386#m
hrprogressive
If the US isn’t going to do the right thing with their own weapons, could the US and other reluctant allies decide instead to fund or, hell, even help build (?) those Ukrainian “rocket drones”?
They seem to be reasonably effective for what they are, and if they are UKR produced and UKR owned and managed…
Again at this point in time , nearly 3 years later, I don’t legitimately think “The West” actually wants Ukraine to “win”.
Well.
Lithuania and Poland sure do, I think.
But a lot of others just want this problem to go away and to wash their hands of it.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/GlasnostGone/status/1833934835032691115#m
Jay
@hrprogressive:
https://nitter.poast.org/DefenceU/status/1833856053764632592#m
There are a large array of NATO Countries and Corporations investing heavily in Ukrainian arms development, repair and manufacture.
A critical issue is that from breaking ground to having product roll out takes a couple of years, and there are right now, in the arms industries, shortages of everything from specialty steels, explosives, guncotton, ammonium nitrate to computer chips.
Planetjanet
I just don’t see a change in our stance on long range targets until after the election. Our continued existence as a democracy outweighs Ukraine’s. Sad, but real.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Chris
@Anonymous At Work:
If Biden’s concern was that Trump and/or his party wanted to gift Ukraine to Putin, we would’ve seen far more urgency out of the White House, not less. Knowing full well that Republicans risked making gains in 2022 and 2024, Biden should have started cramming as many weapons systems down Ukraine’s throat as possible, as quickly as Ukraine could absorb them, from the very first moment of the invasion, so that they could inflict as much damage on the Russians as possible as early as possible, thus giving themselves the biggest chance of either ending the war or fatally crippling the Russian war effort before the Republicans had a chance to start sabotaging.
All of Biden’s actions have been undertaken as though he didn’t think Republicans turning off aid to Ukraine was a real threat, and if they won big in 2022 or even 2024, the aid would continue because patriotic Republicans understand that politics stop at the water’s edge and certainly they don’t want to be appeasers, after all aren’t they the party of Reagan, yada yada. Nothing he’s done has suggested that he understands Ukraine’s survival is contingent on his party keeping control of the government.
Chris
@hrprogressive:
Honestly, it feels so much dumber than this: “the West” does want Ukraine to “win.” “The West” just isn’t willing to put its back into it and actually do it takes to ensure that Ukraine does win.
It’s very much like the way a lot of Republican politicians (and heck, for that matter, Democratic politicians) feel about Trump. In an ideal world, they’d very much like him to go away. They just aren’t willing to do the work to actually make him go away. So they write harshly worded letters and furrow their brows and really hope that, somehow, Trump will go away.
Another Scott
Speaking of logistics, … Defense Logistics Agency releases Strategic Plan for 2025-2030. Lots of buzzwords, but they understand how the world has changed.
16 page PDF to be “coming soon”.
Cheers,
Scott.
SomeRandomGuy
@hrprogressive: I’m not sure people understand what winning really looks like in Ukraine. The only way a “department of defense” wins a war is if the bad guys throw a lot of money and a lot of lives into an attack, and *bam* total wipeout, it’s obvious the good guys will crush the next attack too, time to stop trying.
I saw someone say “Ukraine needs to attack Putin’s expensive planes,” and yes, I think that’s exactly it. They can’t wipe out tanks and artillery pieces – I mean, they *can*, they’ve gotten really good at it! – but, that won’t win the war. Putin’s already accepted those as sunk costs.
Every day, I read this post, and it’s an aerial attack, demonstrating the Ukrainians need both air superiority, and the ability to maintain that, and, again, planes are *really* expensive. Only thing better than killing a bunch of planes is killing a bunch of pilots – especially if you could have gotten the *planes* if you wanted them, but you *chose* to take the pilots instead.
Keeping in mind, the closest I came to military service was realizing how fast I’d flunk out of basic training. Still, I was a kid, and I get that you can’t just take away a kid’s toy for throwing it at you. That’s just stopping them, and letting them learn your weaknesses; it is, in fact, exactly why ‘defense’ doesn’t win wars.
You need to make sure they wish they’d never thrown their toy at you in the first place. *That* is what works, both on children and countries.
Art
IMHO, a little understood fact is that even a massive Russian defeat is not enough. A bold unexpected maneuver that traps 200,000 Russian troops, 1000 armored vehicles and a third of the command staff wouldn’t do it even as it would be grand development. That isn’t the required type of victory.
At the battle of “The Bulge” in WW2 a decision was made that changed what would happen in and around Germany after the war. After the German offensive petered out the Germans were in a vast pocket of their own. Patton pointed out that a quick armored thrust through the base of this bulge would trap a large part of the German army and end the war more quickly. Eisenhower, always the strategic thinker and planning for after the war didn’t go that way. He didn’t want the victory to be procedural, quick, or allow the bulk of their army to escape either back to Germany, or into POW camps. Instead he surrounded the three sides of this bulge and made the Germans fight for every meter. It was to be a grind. Both German and Allied forced paid dearly but at the end of the war Germany literally had nothing left to fight with. They had been defeated in all possible ways. The nation of Germany was broken and ceased to be a player on the world stage. They had no fight left. They had to be, and were, rebuilt from the ground up. The Marshal Plan was a stroke of genius. The entire nation, how it functioned, how the people thought of themselves, how they thought of the world, and their role in it were all re-imagined.
The same was done to/for Japan but even more comprehensively.
If Russia is going to become even a nominally functional part of any international order it has to be broken and rebuilt. Painful long range strikes and fancy maneuvers are not going to get them there. They have to be defeated comprehensively to the point of national exhaustion. They withdrawal and rethink simply because they have no other options.
One of the risks is nuclear war. I suspect their nuclear arsenal is as decrepit and ill maintained as the rest of their military. The single most important development to keeping this non-nuclear is that, as reported, the US handed the Kremlin a detailed list of locations where Putin has been staying when he thought the US didn’t know where he was. The implication being that Putin is, and will always be, first on the list for nuclear destruction. It is personal.
I don’t see rebuilding and guidance coming from outside. Last time that was tried it was comprehensively botch by conservative ideology, same as in Iraq, and a comprehensive military defeat and economic collapse is just a start. The Russians are going to do it themselves. I suspect it will be multi-staged and not without setbacks.
Look for a stage of warlords, regional disintegration, at least one Stalin look-alike strong-man, and a couple of failed attempts at both free-markets and democracy. In the end it will be one or more states with some version of democratic republic/s and a social safety net. It may take 50 years.