LOL at this cope:
Donald Trump announced he will not participate in a second debate with Kamala Harris, saying she has turned down previous opportunities to meet and alleging she lost their Tuesday night face-off.
“When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A REMATCH.’ Polls clearly show that I won the Debate against Comrade Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ Radical Left Candidate, on Tuesday night, and she immediately called for a Second Debate,” the former president wrote on Truth Social.
When a few mild fact checks of your wild bullshit makes your supporters blame the refs, you definitely won:
You also clearly won when the refs gave you over 5 minutes more speaking time than your opponent, and you used it to blather instead of fighting back. Another signal of your commanding win is that all of your supporters on Capitol Hill are bravely running away from reporters.
You won so much that JD should probably sit out the October 1 debate, because liberal media CBS News might check a fact or two, too.
different-church-lady
The were both fact checked the entire night.
Trump was fact corrected four times.
Redshift
I’m willing to bet that most of the time when a prizefighter gets completely clobbered by an opponent, the first words out of his mouth aren’t “I want a rematch.”
trollhattan
My shocked face is at the cleaners.
different-church-lady
@Redshift: Usually the mouth is in too bad a shape to say much at all.
frosty
@different-church-lady: Nicely put!
hueyplong
@Redshift: That Spinks dude didn’t wake up screaming for a rematch with Mike Tyson.
Steve LaBonne
“That was a narcissistic injury that he will never get over, actually.” – Mary Trump
satby
@Steve LaBonne: and this sparks joy 😊
frog
I don’t see any of the right wingers claiming that the fact checking of Trump was wrong.
Steve LaBonne
@satby: Specifically, Schadenfreude.
Sanjeevs
He’s too busy working on his healthcare plan.
Randal Sexton
Obligitory :
3Sice
Sore losers complain about “the refs”.
Maxim
OT, but a good reason to get your flu shot — flu increases the risk of a heart attack. The increase was greatest in people who had not been hospitalized for coronary artery disease.
Parfigliano
I fully expect some MAGA dumbfuck to attack an ABC affiliate station or transmission tower.
If I lived in Springfield I would keep a close eye on my dog or cat as I also expect some MAGA dumbfuck to star disappearing them to show Donvict was right.
satby
Ok, I want to share this latest from Brian Klass because I think he does good analysis: Donald Trump and the Banality of Crazy
Steve LaBonne
@Sanjeevs: He already has a soupçon of an inkling of a concept of a plan. The plan should be along any century now!
Leto
Kamala Harris may not be a Marxist, but she did publicly own Trumpov on national tv.
KatKapCC
To quote Chrissy Teigen…
P
A
B
David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch
She’s holding a rally in charlotte right now and she’s cleaning his clock
Dan B
@Parfigliano: Springfield City Hall is closed due to a bomb threat. An elementary school is closed. Haitian residents have been experiencing vandalism.
Springfield was dying before Haitians revitalized it.
Leto
@different-church-lady: I found a picture of that fight.
gene108
Despite all this, the race is still very close.
I do wonder what my fellow voters see in Republicans. It’s not just racism or misogyny, in any traditional sense because Lt. Governor Robinson (NC), Sen. Tim Scott (SC), Gov. Kaye Ivy (AL?), etc. wouldn’t hold statewide office.
There’s a malignancy towards cooperation and mutually beneficial outcomes that I think is at the core of this. Bush, Jr. & Co. didn’t believe in mutually beneficial foreign policy. They thought they should be able to bully “lesser” countries like North Korea into compliance with our goals.
Trump’s the distilled essence of toxic zero-sum game thinking that’s always been prevalent with conservatives. I think this is one reason why it hasn’t taken much effort to bring the rest of the Republican Party to be in lockstep with him. They share his view that there must always be a winner and a loser.
SatanicPanic
waaaaah waaaaah what a baby Trump is
schrodingers_cat
@gene108:.
It is racism and misogyny the Scott and Robinson provide a more palatable face for racism and Ivy for misogyny.
How do you think that a handful of Brits ruled over India? They found Indians who did their bidding.
KatKapCC
@gene108: Racists will GLEEFULLY support conservative Black people because they can use them as a shield against accusations of racism. It’s a tale as old as time.
Old School
Minor point. but I don’t see four corrections of Trump.
I see:
And potentially this:
catclub
The predictit marketplace.
I can buy Harris to win for $0.56 or 0.57.
I can also buy ‘Trump loses’ for $0.53.
Why the difference?
meanwhile at the Polymarket, Harris $0.50 and Trump is $0.49
Looks like there are cheap arbitrages to guarantee making money.
Polymarket also thinks Trump wins Arizona by a lot. really?
trollhattan
Sunk-cost fallacy visits house, takes up residence, attacks bank account. Actual water involved.
The water heater stopped heating water two Sundays ago. Self-fixes do nothing. That Monday, Plumber 1 tries things, throws up arms, says maybe try replacing thing 1, hates the brand. I order thing 1 ($100), box arrives, plug it in, nothing, but notice control box now giving different error code. Next day Plumber 2 tries stuff, coaxes control box back from dead (reverts to the prior error message). He suspects thing 2 and orders one. Returns next day, installs thing 2, Nothing. Talks to manufacturer who suggests replacing thing 3, which is in stock in town. Installs thing 3, huzza, flame and hot water. +$1000.
I come home and crank the heater on to watch it in action. Go upstairs and hear thud from basement—did something fall? Go down to look and WHOMP comes from the firebox. Unplug heater, call Plumber 2. This morning Plumber 2, pulls thing 4, finds subtle damage that probably causes flashover in burner box. Orders thing 4 (“about $500”).
And here we are, $1600 shoveled into a 9YO water heater. Had we known, for another grand we could have a new one. This is like having a dead ’92 Corolla and replacing the battery, the starter, the transmission and after none of that works, ordering a new fuel pump and injector module. You still end up with a ’92 Corolla.
Ugh. To echo Cole: This fucking old house.
Chet Murthy
@schrodingers_cat: This. They’re voting for the -structural- racism and misogyny, not for specific white people/men to be in charge. It’s the entire system that they want to preserve and extend.
SatanicPanic
@gene108: why do people go to church? because their parents took them to church and their community is based around church.
Why do people join the church if they’ve never been to church? they meet church people who are nice to them, either IRL on online.
Most of the time it’s not much more complicated than that.
catclub
@Steve LaBonne:
Nobody ever asks: “So you have a better, cheaper plan that is better for everyone, but you will only tell us what it is if you are elected?
Why do you hate the rest of the USA?”
John McCain said the same thing, by the way, about his secret plan – I think for Iraq.
FastEdD
Like Colbert said, “She carved your heart out and ate it in front of you and then she asked for a second helping.”
RevRick
@KatKapCC: Yes!
I find it hilarious that MAGA portrays Trump as this big, strong, tough guy bestride the globe, but then wail about how mean the ABC moderators were to him. Once again proving that these guys think they can dish it out, but definitely can’t take it.
Chris
@gene108:
The very nicest thing you can say about Republican voters is that a non-trivial number of them have been living in information bubbles their whole lives because the radio station, local newspapers, etc, were all owned by right-wing nutjobs and the only news channel that was ever on growing up was Fox News. I met a few kids from poor white rural Southern backgrounds like this when I was in college, who were very bright, but had imbibed a ton of bullshit that they had to spend years flushing out of their system. I can very well imagine that bullshit turning them rancid over time if they hadn’t gotten the escape valve that college provided.
(The middle-class-to-rich white kids from these states, in contrast to the working-to-poor white kids, never did seem to get it flushed out of their system, nor did they even see the need to try).
Having said that, there’s a point after adulthood when that kind of stops being an excuse, especially when you see how relentlessly the right keeps pushing the window in loonier and loonier directions.
hueyplong
@catclub: The audience, i.e., market for political betting sites is RW, so the house sets the odds to account for that.
You’ve stumbled onto something less reliable than polling.
KatKapCC
@RevRick: He is the biggest, whiniest, wimpiest, little crybaby I have ever seen. I feel like literal infants would listen to him and be like, man up, you wuss.
Baud
@gene108:
I don’t know how they do polls. Specifically, how do they handle Republicans who aren’t going to vote for Trump or Harris? If the effect of everything is to depress Republican turnout, would that show up in the polling?
Steve LaBonne
@gene108: They always have room for the occasional “one of the good ones” who shares and reflects back their insanity. That doesn’t mean it’s not about racism and misogyny.
prostratedragon
Nobody leaves his rallies early! Camouflage edition
SatanicPanic
Alberto Fujimori RIP lol
I’ll never get over that the guy fled to Japan and then resigned his prime minister job via fax.
Reminds me of the jobs I’ve resigned by walking out the door and not coming back.
K-Mo
This means nothing and I’m sure the Harris people know it. Let her use his unwillingness to debate again as a talking point for the next month or however long it goes before the Trumpies come crawling back to the table.
mrmoshpotato
But I thought the traitorous, orange, Kremlin’s bitch was the bigliest and bestliest at everything.
p.a.
I don’t mind tRump bugging out on the theory that any media working the next debate(s) would turn it into a shitshow to show “balance”, to the detriment of Harris. Don’t trust ’em. Look at some of the morning after headlines this week.
Channeling efg: “Fuck ’em” (all)
sukabi
@Sanjeevs: slight correction…. He’s working on the concept of a concept of a possible Healthcare plan…
Other MJS
Brave Sir Donald
sukabi
@satby: checks out.
Belafon
@gene108: It’s about maintaining power. There are a lot of Republicans around me that are ok with blacks in their neighborhoods, their churches, and in their stores, but in no way should minorities had better not be in a position to make decisions that would close the gap between whites and other groups power wise.
Anonymous At Work
JD “Sofa Loren” Vance might actually cancel. CNN got panned and ABC got praised for pushing back against really blatant lies. All Vance has are extremely-online lies. So, CBS will have both the positive and negative reinforcement to make his debate performance hell.
Wyatt Salamanca
Kamala’s debate performance was the political equivalent of a walk-off inside the park grand slam in baseball and it shattered Trump’s fragile egg shell ego into a thousand pieces. He’ll never recover from the intense butthurt he’s now feeling.
Redshift
@different-church-lady: lol
p.a.
@trollhattan: yup. My elec water heater went in March ’22 the day after I got my tax refund. Mr. Break-Even, that’s me. In defense of it, it was due: 12 yrs 3 months old.
Old School
@trollhattan: My sympathies.
When my water heater went a few months ago, the potential fix was expensive enough that the plumber said he didn’t think it was worth trying on an old device, so just went for a new one right away.
Steve LaBonne
@p.a.: She accomplished everything a debate can accomplish and then some (since a normal opponent doesn’t melt down like a toddler). I have trouble seeing the upside for her in doing another one, with moderators who are likely to be at least as bad as Tapper and Bash.
trollhattan
@Anonymous At Work:
I won’t be surprised if he does; OTOH I could see Trump shoving him out there just for the opportunity to bully him around some. (Even Trump by now knows Vance is a shitty choice.)
What I’m not the least concerned with is Walz handling him. Unlike Tuesday I’d watch, since Trump’s tablesaw voice won’t be in the room.
prostratedragon
Nobody ever leaves my rallies early! Heat wave edition.
Kent
I have shitloads of rural MAGA folks in my extended family and they aren’t voting for Trump based on any objective policy analysis of his positions or even his sanity.
They are voting for him for one reason only. It is how they assert power over the urban libs who they think shit on them and are ruining the country. Rationality has nothing to do with it. The fact that Trump makes the libs go insane is a feature not a bug.
There is also a big element of tribalism. If you are a rural white voter or suburban voter in some red state like Texas then the GOP is simply your tribe. It is like being a Braves fan if you are from Atlanta or Red Sox fan if you are from Boston. No one objectively chooses between the Braves and Red Sox based on any rational criteria of team strengths. They just go along with the tribe they belong to.
KatKapCC
@Steve LaBonne: I really wish there wasn’t this insistence on having news anchors as moderators. Why not, say, a political historian or something. A professor. Why do we assume that people who read news on TV are the best ones to do this job?
trollhattan
@p.a.:
@Old School:
Water heaters used to have what, four parts? and failure was typically springing a leak. No mystery there!
This thing is gas ultra-low NOX forced induction yadda-yadda basically a whole house furnace that delivers water, not air. So very many parts.
Other MJS
Can we start talking about Trump’s Medusa Complex?
Old School
TBone
Today’s Tiedrich notes
The Cope:
https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/donald-trump-got-trounced-by-kamala
👶
Redshift
@catclub: Polymarket is a “crypto-based betting platform.” I’d be willing to bet that selects for a wingnut-heavy user base.
Kent
I think these two did a pretty good job.
There is a lot of professional skill that goes along with moderating any kind of show on TV. Understanding timing and pacing and so forth. If they had non-TV people asking questions they would still likely need professional TV people to moderate the show.
But quality matters. These were two youngish moderators who were smart. And that makes a big difference.
Steve LaBonne
@KatKapCC: @KatKapCC: For that matter, why should Harris do a sit down interview with some poorly educated “journalist” like Peter Baker or Patrick Healy rather than with a scholar?
TBone
@Old School: OH SNAP HAHAHAHAHA
bbleh
@gene108: it’s not ALL misogyny and racism, but a LOT of it is.
The difference between the Felon and Scott, Robinson, Ivey, et al. is that, by pointing to them, a Republican still acknowledges (to at least some degree) that misogyny and racism are WRONG. “I can’t be [that wrong thing] because that person is [that thing] and I support that person.” On the other hand, the Felon allows them to claim it’s OKAY. He VALIDATES and EXEMPLIFIES the misogyny and racism. By pointing to him, they DON’T have to admit that it’s wrong, or that they’re wrong in expressing it. “He’s that way, and I am too! Yay!” They can be out, loud and proud about it!
Like Mussolini, he “allows them to be their worst selves.”
satby
Something to share: We’re Americans
Citizen Alan
Racists and misogynists are perfectly fine with voting for minorities and women who support white supremacy and the Patriarchy. Tim Scott was such a groveller to racists that he was a serious candidate for trump’s VP. And kaye ivy is from a long line of women who believe so strongly that other women should stay home and pop out babies that they run for high office in order to force it upon them.
SatanicPanic
@Steve LaBonne: I could see doing it again just because the last went so well that it’s likely to attract more viewers. I personally don’t think there’s any realistic way for the moderators to tank her performance. They can ask stupid questions all they want- Dana Bash tried. Harris would just sidestep them.
Old School
@KatKapCC:
My guess is that ABC (or whomever) wants to promote their own personalities. I suppose they could have opted for Jimmy Kimmel or Jesse Palmer.
KatKapCC
@Kent: Yeah, they did well. But think about it: How often do you think the moderators do well and how often do you think they suck? Even removing our personal biases from it, I have thought FAR more often that they did a shit job than a good one.
KatKapCC
@Steve LaBonne: I want both of them to sit down separately with Heather Cox Richardson for a pop quiz.
Redshift
@Baud:
I’m pretty sure they usually ask “how likely are you to vote?” We are in the season where they report on likely voters as opposed to all registered voters, but I seem to recall that’s based on the pollster’s demographic models (which have been adjusted over the years — they do have an incentive to get it right — but are still a bit of an art.) I expect they don’t want to be spending the money to poll people who aren’t going to vote just to report how many of them there are, so most polls may not pick up shifts in that.
Geminid
@Kent: The few people I know who voted for Trump do not like him and would much rather vote for a Kemp or a Youngkin. They still view Trump as the lesser of two evils because they are convinced that Democrats will ruin the country. This is the result of propoganda and negative partisanship.
Steve LaBonne
@SatanicPanic: I’m not worried about any real downside because her abilities are as obvious as his lack thereof, but neither do I see an upside sufficient to justify taking more time and energy from campaigning in swing states.
Shalimar
@gene108: Robinson and Scott got elected to statewide office because they’re holier-than-thou bible-beaters. They both came to prominence speaking to overwhelmingly white church congregations around their states.
As for Kay Ivey, I have known her my whole life so I am biased in that regard. Everyone likes her personally and she kept moving up the state org chart election after election until Governor Bentley had to resign because of scandal. As Lt. Governor, she took over and has been elected twice since. If Bentley had served out his term, I suspect another Republican would have beaten her for the nomination. Everyone likes her but I doubt she is many people’s first choice.
SatanicPanic
@Steve LaBonne: I can see a few:
Putting her in front of more people who aren’t familiar with her
Adding more loser stink to Trump
Being able to promote a few more policy decisions.
Keep Trump from dominating a few news cycles.
I don’t think it’s big stuff, but it’s not nothing.
Redshift
@K-Mo:
Yeah, it’s win-win for the Harris campaign — either he comes back for another helping and she spanks him on live TV again, or he whines and makes excuses and she gets to paint him as weak.
I’m convinced the whole deal about unmuting the mics was the same calculation — either he agreed and people got to hear more of his ranting, or he didn’t and they could needle him about his handlers “controlling” him.
TBone
@David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch: she was ahmazing! 🔥
I watched the whole thing (she’s wearing her Chucks too) and she was simply pitch perfect!
Rep. Clyburn was also wonderful on Deadline Whitehouse just after *chef’s kiss
mrmoshpotato
@satby: That’s great.
alquitti
He really needs another debate but fear trumps everything.
JoyceH
How soon before some red hats in Springfield attack a black person who was out walking their dog? (Assuming, natch, that they’re ‘rescuing’ the dog.)
CliosFanboy
@schrodingers_cat:
there were black slave catchers in the US before 1865 as well.
Harrison Wesley
@trollhattan: Watch him try to change the conditions. “I’m not feeling well enough to travel. I’d like to Zoom in. From the comfort of my living room couch…..”
Baud
@satby:
Not sure how that’s helpful right now. Seems to project a “both sides” viewpoint.
SW
Sixth grader: “No, but I have a concept of my homework”
Kay
The Harris rally in NC is HUGE.
And, my youngest (junior in college) told me all the boys he went to high school with in this blood red county are off Trump. They’re not voting for Democrats – they’re just off Trump. They would be between 19 and 22 now.
Baud
@Kay:
Good to hear.
Redshift
@Geminid:
And while it has been a factor for a long time, this really is different than it used to be. Case in point, the whole thing about “Americans are pessimistic about the economy” that we’ve heard about for months, is arguably almost entirely because Rs and Ds flipped in their opinion of the economy the day Biden took office. That’s happened for a long time, but the shift in Rs was way more than it used to be, and the shift in Ds wasn’t. Ds have a bias toward their team, but they’re still grounded in reality, and Rs are all bias. (At least in how they report their opinions; behavior doesn’t actually shift that much.)
japa21
@Kay: Nobody was leaving early, either. The enthusiasm was unbelievable.
Redshift
@Kay: Good. Not voting is half as good as switching to our side.
Baud
@Redshift:
I guess what I’m asking is if they’re getting a lot more responses from Republicans that they’re not voting, do they still adjust their assumption of Republican turnout when scaling the raw data to make predictions? If they still think Republicans will be, hypothetically, 40% of voters, then the fewer Republicans supporting Trump will have make him look better in the polling.
BellyCat
@trollhattan: Sorry to convey that a plumber friend of mine says “usually a 10 year life for water heaters.”
twbrandt
Postcards this week:
10 for Kristen McDonald Rivet in MI-08
20 for Tony Vargas in NE-02.
Met my goal of 30 per week. Grand total: 30, since this is my first week.
RaflW
@Sanjeevs: He only has concepts. A plan has details that could trip him up with this or that constituency.
But really, the concept is “bluffing”.
Kristine
IIRC, a book came out a few years ago describing “white people welfare,” which consisted of financial boosts and other supports reserved for whites alone. Not the same benefits that everyone else gets. Special bennies.
If some GOPers are voting for Trump for this reason, I think they’re in for a disappointment given how Trump’s tax plans will give it to them in the neck.
Steve in the ATL
@Parfigliano: I wouldn’t go that far, but in solidarity with my MAGA brothers I changed the radio station when the Jackson 5’s “ABC” came on.
Belafon
@Belafon: Well, I didn’t proofread properly. It should say “In no way should minorities end up in a position where they are making decisions that would close the gap between whites and other groups power wise.”
Steve Crickmore
@Old School: Yes, it a pity the questions too are so wooden and predictable, but most of these journalists/hosts i.e. David Muir and Linsey Davis that moderated the debate, majored in Communications or Journalism and have never taken a History or Political Science course in their life. Don’t expect any questions on the Presidency that are scintillating or elegant from a Doris Kearns or a Pat Moynihan, two of my best undergraduate professors, (I’m from the old school, too) that would actually stimulate the two candidates to think and lead them to really debate the questions or issues at hand. That bus has left long ago.
Chris
@Kent:
I’ll never get over the fact that they made up the term “flyover country” as an example of how the coastal urban populations are supposed to talk. (It’s virtually never used by actual coastal blue staters unironically. It’s always brought up in the context of chastising liberals for the kind of language that they’re told they use).
White conservative heartlanders literally went out and invented an N-word for themselves, because they’re just that desperate to feel persecuted, maligned, and therefore, sorry for themselves.
Redshift
@Baud: I don’t know. If they are asking how likely people are to vote in a poll, I would think they would incorporate that in how they report the results, and if it’s a significant change, call it out prominently. But I don’t really know.
I wouldn’t think they would ignore something like that if that would skew the main results. Except for garbage partisan polls, pollsters really do want to get it right, and most of years we remember the polls being wildly wrong, they were really only wrong by a pretty small amount, just in a direction that made a very big difference.
gene108
@Steve LaBonne:
They never had much room for even the “good ones” 100+ years ago. Conformity was much much stricter in society regarding what you could do based on race and gender.
If you take the argument people make today about racists tolerating conservative blacks, because they help maintain white supremacy, I figure we’d have had more than a handful of black Senators and governors by now, in U.S. history. The tolerance for even the “good ones” to be in powerful positions was not historically there in U.S. history.
The openness to the “good ones” being in powerful positions has most definitely changed with respect to conservatives and race over the decades.
This is why I think compared to historic manifestations of racism and sexism in U.S. history, the reason people vote Republican is more than just racism and sexism.
@schrodingers_cat:
If you can recommend any good English language histories of India, I would greatly appreciate it. They seem few and far between.
Barbara
@trollhattan: Nine years does not seem like a long life for a water heater. I think I might have drawn the line when it came to spending $1000 on the third thing. Or at least I would have been pricing new water heaters. But it’s hard to know.
Our oven had an issue with temperature regulation and gave us an error code that indicated the fix was either simple (new thermostat) or hopeless (new control panel). Manufacturer was no longer making parts but we decided to replace the thermostat, which was under $100 and is reasonably interchangeable. A parts supplier was able to match the original with a new one. It’s been working fine for two years after that fix.
On the other hand, we got a new control board for our drier ($100 on Ebay) and six months later the motor tanked. At that point we gave up and bought a new one.
I take no credit — this is all down to my husband’s refusal to give up and just buy a new anything.
Redshift
@Chris: And there was that great post a few years ago (can’t remember where) by a writer who grew up in a rural area, and pointed out that the ones in cities talking shit about those places are almost entirely people like him who grew up there and got out. Actual coastal elites just don’t think about them at all, except when they’re trying to make our lives miserable.
Steve LaBonne
@Chris: This need to feel persecuted seems merely ridiculous but it’s actually quite sinister. It’s a license to attack their supposed persecutors. Remember, Jews were persecuting good Germans.
Chris
@Redshift:
“Trust in government” has been the same way for a while, though worsening now. I remember seeing a poll that covered the last couple decades and how liberals, moderates, and conservatives told pollsters that they felt about the government. Liberal and moderate answers would swing, but it was generally in response to actual events; there was a big upswing in trust in government in the fall of 2001, and a big downswing in the summer of 2008, for example.
For self-described conservatives, the answers tracked 100% with presidential elections. When their people won elections, trust skyrocketed. When they lost them, trust plummeted.
BR
I don’t like their Jeb Bush-era policy views, but the folks at The Bulwark are rock solid anti-Trump / pro-Dem advocates these days and are out there digging up dirt like this:
https://www.thebulwark.com/p/jd-vance-and-the-southern-bourbons
trollhattan
@BellyCat: We know, and it stinks. It’s the matter of the costs creeping up instead of leaping to the full amount. Replacement would have been obvious but now we want to just halt the bleeding and take the next 2-3 years to ponder among the three replacement technologies.
Frickin’ houses.
Steve LaBonne
@BR: Oh, they know which side they’re on, and we know it too.
Chet Murthy
@Steve Crickmore: Your comment leads me to ask you a question: do you think that such a “real debate” is even possible with TCFG on the stage? I mean, he’s not going to actually engage with the question, regardless of how well-put, right? And so, you’re down to Harris giving a soliloquy answer, right? B/c the chances that she can turn TCFG’s word-salad into a part of her answer ….. are slim, right?
What I’m saying is, I think that the idea that we can have a “debate” is pretty specious, absent fact-checking and candidates of good will. It is what it is.
Chris
@Redshift:
Lifelong coastal people, to a ridiculous extent, feel better about rural areas than either rural inhabitants or ex-rural transplants. They’ve imbibed all that Andy Griffith fairytale about how wholesome and simple things are in the country, and they don’t have much real exposure to contradict it. They’re the ones who read and believe the New York Times’ cletus safaris and ponder when the Democratic Party went wrong by being so high-handed and elitist that it upset all the wholesome small-town folksy people.
The idea rural conservatives have that these people hate them is a complete 180 from reality.
@Steve LaBonne:
That, for sure. It’s the actual purpose behind “each accusation is a confession:” they’re doing it to me so I gotta do it to them first.
oldgold
Trump’s new travel buddy, Laura Loomer, in addition to trashing MTG is now after Lindsey Graham:
Joy in FL
@KatKapCC: I would love to watch that. (“both of them to sit down separately with Heather Cox Richardson for a pop quiz,” in comment #73).
suzanne
@gene108:
You’re right, it’s not just those things. It’s also good old-fashioned greed and meanness.
trollhattan
@oldgold: Hmm, well, root for injuries.
We’ve long known implosion was possible and maybe, just maybe, it happens this time.
They ran Trump 3X in a row!
Wapiti
@SatanicPanic: Keep Trump from dominating a few news cycles.
I think we’ll see less of Trump; his people will try to keep him in a bunker so decent people can’t see him.
Eolirin
@Redshift: It’s better if they’d ticket split if they stay home entirely.
Maxim
I have been receiving many, many (did I mention many?) fundraising texts from various PACs.
Just got one from Liz Cheney for Colin Allred.
Weftage
@SatanicPanic:
The good news just keeps coming!
(And a reminder that Trump, vile as he is, is actually not the worst thing out there.) (I wish that were a bigger comfort.)
Tim C.
@Chris: Correct. Though the rurals would probably be even more upset when they learn that urbans just don’t think about them that much. Likewise, when they find out how much cities actually pay for in terms of rural community services….
patrick II
@hueyplong:
I have seen fighters ask for a rematch when it has been a close match, but not when they receive a beatings like the ones handed out by Tyson or Kamala
NutmegAgain
I have a question for folks who know more about judges, appointments, etc, than I do. Is it possible that when/if VP Harris becomes President, she can just toss out Aileen (Loose) Cannon, fire her, or move her to a less consequential position?
NotMax
He has a concept of a win.
//
prostratedragon
@Other MJS:
I suppose that’s a term for what Mary Trump described last night on The Last Word:
oldgold
@NutmegAgain: She can’t do that.
Steve LaBonne
@Tim C.: They will never find out. They are firmly convinced that their taxes support those degenerate liberal cities. They are incapable of assimilating the truth that they are the actual welfare recipients.
ColoradoGuy
I’ve lived in Colorado for nineteen years and never once heard the phrase “flyover country” in conversation with locals. Not once.
If I look up at the sky, nearly any time of the day, there are jet planes at cruising altitude flying from coast to coast. (Denver must be a waypoint on the airways.) But nobody remarks on it.
BR
I’m not a boxing guy, but this thread on bsky was interesting — pre-Harris as nominee, now revisited:
https://bsky.app/profile/drobertsimg.bsky.social/post/3l3ybthgocn22
Leto
@NutmegAgain: no; Cannon was appointed to a lifetime bench position, and the only way to remove her is either through the Circuit Court taking her off the case, or via impeachment which would be a permanent removal of position.
Central Planning
@FastEdD: It’s like Billy Joel’s Stiletto
prostratedragon
@satby: Her little giggle talking about corporations owning politicians. Perfect!
Matt McIrvin
@BR: And he phrases everything in terms of an endless war between two camps of white people, with the “hillbillies” shifting allegiance. Nobody else matters.
KatKapCC
@BR: “Today’s liberals are so terrible, you guys. They wouldn’t even enslave people if they had the option!”
Kayla Rudbek
@NutmegAgain: I think that it’s a life long appointment, but I’m not sure if she could be reassigned. Say, to one of the Dakotas for example. If I was sitting in AG Garland’s chair, I would probably have her undergo a full background check and financial audit and make her an offer; resign now or be prosecuted.
Kent
@Chris: I have rural MAGA relatives in places like Michigan and Indiana who are afraid to visit us in the very upscale suburb of Camas Washington outside Portland because FOX has pickled their brains to the point that they think Portland is a “no-go” zone.
Jeffro
@KatKapCC:
LOLOLOL so true
BR
@Matt McIrvin:
I imagine to Vance, as part of his narrative creation for his book and his worldview, nobody has ever gotten a shorter end of a stick than his people from Appalachia. That there were people who were enslaved, or sent on the trail of tears, or forced to build the railroads, or put in internment camps, or any of the other things that have been done to people who don’t look like him — none of that exists.
Hoodie
@NutmegAgain: Nope.
Jeffro
I can see him canceling out. Just bug out, blame the biased media, yada yada. It’s not like it’s likely to do them any good…Walz will own Vance in about 90 seconds.
Kathleen
@Steve LaBonne: A scholar would not be familiar with Rethug talking points that should be fodder for questions for the Democratic candidate.
Matt McIrvin
@Kent: I’ve noticed from non-political Facebook and YouTube communities that many Oregonians not in Portland are terrified of Portland. People will ask about places to visit in the Pacific Northwest and they’ll warn them away specifically from Portland saying it’s just too dangerous to visit, you’ll get killed there.
Jeffro
@Kent:
I hear you but we have to add one other important reason, especially at this point (ie, post-J6): they’re ALL IN. They have been told relentlessly that trump is scum, that he degrades everything he touches, and so on – all true of course – but they pushed right past it all and here they are.
By “here they are”, I mean, the guy is openly in Putin’s pocket, rooting against our allies, promising revenge on his political opponents and any media that dare oppose him, stole national security documents, is a convicted felon, and more. They chose to draw NO bright lines about what they wouldn’t support…and so now, 9+ years in…back out? on trump? That would mean they were wrong, stupid, or evil. (They are – they just can’t/won’t admit it)
So…fuck them. Let’s turn out our side like never before and win this thing!
Kay
@Chris:
This is so true. My oldest son says “don’t tell me about these people – I went to high school with them. I understand them perfectly.”
Jeffro
@twbrandt: good job!
If you knock out just 10 a day, you’ll get there easily. =)
It’s a great way to start the day!
Kay
@japa21:
Part of the reason they don’t leave Kamala’s rallies early is she’s not an ego maniac so doesn’t blather on and on for 2 hours.
Trump is one of those rich windbags who hold people hostage. It’s a type.
I love love love that she gives a 30 minute speech. It’s respectful of peoples time.
trollhattan
The hits keep coming.
“Shut up Donny, you’re out of your element.”
Baud
@Kay:
Definitely to her credit that she appreciates how social media has damaged our attention span. :-)
cmorenc
@schrodingers_cat: Exactly. Black GOPers like Scott and Robinson are the Booker T Washingtons of the modern era, occupying a non-threatening niche to the dominant white power structure, rather than WEB DuBois, challenging it.
CaseyL
@Jeffro:
Per Tim Miller on BlueSky, today JD Vance went on a podcast called “Viva Frei” and said the US is in an internal battle that is a continuation of the Civil War, and he is on the South’s side.
Can’t be more blatant than that.
Wonder – if the debate with Walz happens – if a moderator will ask him about that.
Kent
@Jeffro: I don’t have any argument with you.
I’m just pointing out that rural MAGA world has nothing to do with policy analysis or examinations of the fitness of Trump to serve. They don’t give a shit about any of that. It is simply tribal. And their tribe is voting for Trump just like Red Sox fans are Red Sox fans regardless of how good or bad the team is in any particular year.
Baud
@CaseyL:
Couldn’t even go on a podcast that speaks English. smh
BR
@Kay:
I can’t imagine what it’s like to spend 4 hours in security lines and such and then 2 hours of boring warmup speakers and then be stuck spending 2 hours listening to him ramble. Sounds exhausting.
Mousebumples
@twbrandt: nice work! I did 21 last night. 180 down, 120 to go of this batch. I’ve gotta over a month until my mail date. Progress!
H.E.Wolf
That is awesome. My (ultra-) stretch goal is 10… 30 is amazing!
I think we’re going to be glad we wrote for the Blue team. :)
Steve in the ATL
Number of middle aged white men sitting in first class cabin on my flight who are wearing Air Jordans >0. Which is way too large a number.
Number of them pulling it off=0.
BR
@Chris:
I dunno… maybe it depends on who you’re talking about from the coast. As a brown person who grew up in coastal California, I have zero illusions about rural areas. (Or some urban areas for that matter.) The first time I faced open racism was in Boston. But before that me and my family faced plenty when visiting rural areas of California, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and elsewhere. Even within the state, except for rural farming areas of California that are rural but are diverse, I stay out of rural areas.
The most memorable racism was in rural Utah circa 2006. We visited the national parks and then stopped for dinner at a rural Applebees (literally). We walked in and it was like a movie where the record player scratches and everyone in the saloon turns their heads. They refused to seat us. Eventually my dad, who is very blunt, demanded to speak to the manager, who eventually came over and seated us. Then we waited 30 minutes for someone to give us menus. Nobody took our order, gave us water, nothing. Manager again. Waiter came over, wouldn’t look or talk at us. My dad took to mocking the fact that they wouldn’t look at us while they were standing there — he was pissed but he’d dealt with far worse before.
Mousebumples
@BR: thanks for the link! I agree, it’s a great read.
Ironcity
@Sanjeevs:
“He’s too busy working on his healthcare plan.” Are you sure it wasn’t his infrastructure program/week?
oldgold
New post debate poll:
“In a just-completed Ipsos/Reuters poll among registered voters, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by five percentage points, 47% to 42%. This is especially notable because the poll was in the field entirely after the debate, yesterday (September 11) and this morning. Ipsos (for Reuters) polled 1405 registered voters.
Ipsos is a highly rated pollster per 538.com, with a 2.8 rating out of 3″
Tim C.
@Steve LaBonne: This is why if Eastern Oregon ever really did get it’s fever dream wish to become part of Idaho, they would discover just how much Boise is willing pay for.
Salaries of all those state empolyees, teachers and other local government officials? (which make up a major employer in those places) Drastically Reduced and say good bye to your pensions.
Roads, Bridges and other infrastructure? LOL.
The Highest Crime regions of Oregon (https://crimegrade.org/safest-places-in-oregon/) All are now in Idaho.
TBone
Fanning the flames of terror (just moments ago):
https://x.com/lrozen/status/1834353552648552879
(Video c/o Acyn)
schrodingers_cat
OT: Keep your paws crossed for my mother. She is in the ICU. My brother just called. Her heart stopped they have managed to get a rhythm and she is being closely monitored. She has been on a liquid diet after her oral surgery. She had been regaining strength and doing well.
Baud
@Steve in the ATL:
What did they think of you in your Chucks?
TBone
@schrodingers_cat: done!
Baud
@schrodingers_cat:
🤞
CaseyL
@schrodingers_cat:
Paws crossed!
Steve in the ATL
@Baud: I should have! I’m actually wearing Lululemon Cityverse, which I’m probably not pulling off either.
Barbara
@schrodingers_cat: Fingers crossed, and paws too.
A Man for All Seasonings (formerly Geeno)
@trollhattan:
Third time’s the charm after all.
Doc Sardonic
@schrodingers_cat: 🤞
zhena gogolia
@oldgold: LFG
zhena gogolia
@schrodingers_cat: Oh, that is distressing. I hope she recovers soon.
BethanyAnne
I remember an old saying about how the North and South treat Black folk. “Northerners don’t care how big you get as long as you don’t get close. Southerners don’t care how close you get as long as you don’t get big.”
BethanyAnne
@schrodingers_cat: Oh, no. I’ll keep her in my thoughts.
Geminid
@cmorenc: Boomer T. Washington was not like Mark Robinson.
NeenerNeener
@prostratedragon: This goes along with a FB response to a post about Trump losing to Kamala that I saw this morning. It basically said “You need Trump. Who are you going to hate once Trump is gone?” Like we have to have somebody to hate; it’s a requirement of life.
Personally, once Trump is gone I’m going to be relieved and happy that I can wake up in the morning and not have to worry about what crap he did yesterday. I’m never looking for somebody to hate.
Ksmiami
@Chris actually, as a coastal liberal, I’m starting to seriously resent the rural lumpen proles. They can fuck off and if I were pres, I’d defund them. :
Baud
@NeenerNeener:
Obviously he has no idea how much Democrats hate other Democrats.
Jay
@schrodingers_cat:
I am sorry to hear that. I will keep her in my thoughts.
Steve Crickmore
@Chet Murthy: Agreed, she did well, especially given the restrictions and she looked very comfortable…..which was my only real fear. She had wanted the format opened up, permitting the two candidates to ask each other questions on the subjects but they were not allowed to, given the rather strict conditions imposed. All in all, it was much more fiery than the first debate between Trump and Biden. A big win for the professional and personable Harris.
Chet Murthy
@Steve Crickmore: Yes, but my point is, she didn’t actually answer questions in a detailed way. Repeatedly, in fact, she slipped past having to answer questions from the moderators. In a more ….. disciplined and truth-based debate, either the moderators or her opponent would have called her on that, and she’d have had to answer. But because her opponent was an intemperate idiot and gaslighter, that didn’t happen. And so, truth and real policy discourse fell by the wayside.
Matt McIrvin
Trump’s brazen lying is like the kind a tiny child with no sense of plausibility does to get out of trouble. I didn’t break the cookie jar, a space monster came in the window and broke the cookie jar.
It’s remarkable. I guess he figures he has sycophants who will always back him up. And maybe hopes that if he repeats the lie enough, he can make the lie itself the story and eventually make it just as good as truth. “Donald Trump says polls show him winning the debate… could he be right? Our panel of experts weighs in.”
Steve LaBonne
@Chet Murthy: I want to hear broad policy goals during a campaign, which she has certainly provided. I’m not interested in hearing details that aren’t going to survive their first contact with Congress.
Matt McIrvin
@CaseyL: “Civil war means killing. Who are you and Trump planning to kill, JD? And how?”
I remember how they did it last time–they stole our doctors’ protective equipment so more of us would die of a pandemic virus. But then they started killing their own side by telling them to take horse medicine instead of listening to doctors. Go figure.
H.E.Wolf
@schrodingers_cat:
Sending ALL the good wishes for your mother’s recovery.
Matt McIrvin
@NeenerNeener: I’m terrified of Trump like I’d be terrified of a 5-year-old playing with a loaded AR-15. If he went away, the scary situation would just be gone.
artem1s
@catclub:
Polymarket doesn’t think anything. The site only reports how betters are betting. Those odds shift to cover the company’s risk so in the case the long shot candidate (horse) wins, the other bets on the less riskier horses balances out the losses. It’s partly psychological. Gamblers are playing the odds hoping to hit on a higher payout win. But Polymarket odds are in no way, shape or form a predictor of anyone winning or losing. You also have to take into consideration that most people bet on the spread, not who actually wins or loses. Trump odds in AZ may be partly based on what the spread is. In other words, he has to win by a lot for any of those bet holders to win money.
Polymarket has nothing to do with predicting votes. It’s all about beating the spread.
frosty
@Barbara: I also will refuse to buy a new anything. But the last time we needed work on our ~15-year old dishwasher, I did the research. It was already over the typical lifespan. I figured I could put a couple hundred into the repair and in a year it would rust out (or something major) and my repair would be a waste of money.
We bought a new one. I had difficulty processing that. LOL!
JGreen
@oldgold: Hey, it just occurred to me. Does Loomer have children or is she a childless, nut lady?
Chet Murthy
@JGreen: Wikipedia lists no spouse/kids.
dan
Brave Sir Robin
frosty
@schrodingers_cat: Oh, no. You have my best wishes for her.
Anoniminous
@Baud:
They fail Likely Voter screening and dumped from the poll
Maxim
@BR: That’s terrible. I’m sorry.
Chief Oshkosh
@twbrandt: Congrats! I mailed out 20 for Rivet in MI yesterday. My wife will mail 20 out tomorrow for another race in upstate NY.
Both of us are realizing that our hands don’t work as well as they used to…
Dmbeaster
@Baud: Poils are broken. All polls are first plagued by sample sizes that are too small, or non-random methods of reaching a target audience. The first issue is just about money. A truly meaningful sample size in a major state would be thousands. They are typically 1,000 or less. The second issue is a combination of the first plus the technical issues of reaching people. You end up with a non-representative and non-random sample. Ideally, a 1,000 samples might flatten the risk of a skewed sample, but not when getting a 1,000 is almost certainly not random.
Pollsters use models of what the sample should look like to adjust for these errors. The adjustments are only as good as the models. This only works if the electorate is stable, and you can use prior elections as a baseline. That is clearly no longer true.
I suspect you know this, but people need to understand the limitations of polling these days.
twbrandt
@Chief Oshkosh: neither do mine :)
Yarrow
@schrodingers_cat: Very sorry to hear that. Sending good thoughts for her swift recovery.
Chris T.
@Barbara:
They’re crazy expensive, but Miele washer-and-dryer sets last practically forever. I had mine for 20 years; we only left them behind on the last move because the place we were going to had new Samsun W&D units in it already (plus I think Spousal Unit lost the metal rods used to hold the drum in place in the washer for shipping).
I still miss the way the Miele got things clean. The Samsung ones are OK but not nearly as good.