Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

With all due respect and assumptions of good faith, please fuck off into the sun.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

All hail the time of the bunny!

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty. ~Thomas Jefferson

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

T R E 4 5 O N

We can’t confuse what’s necessary to win elections with the policies that we want to implement when we do.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

A tremendous foreign policy asset… to all of our adversaries.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Not all heroes wear capes.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black Sea

War for Ukraine Day 932: Russia Attacks a Turkish Operated Transport Vessel In the Black Sea

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Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great, but she’d like the daily/multi-times a day thunder monsoons would stop. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, why is it still not Friday?

Third, I want to make an additional point above the fold. The strategic incoherence, inconsistency, and malpractice we’ve spent the past 31 months watching Biden’s senior natsec appointees demonstrate in regard to Ukraine and the past 11 months in regard to Israel, Hamas, and Gaza is because this natsec team was not put together to deal with any of this. They were put together to repair the foreign policy and national security damage created by Trump and his team of misfits, oddballs, amateurs, and weirdos. A lot of them were people that President Biden had worked with for decades, in some cases their whole careers were the result of working for and/or with him when he was in the Senate and/or the vice president. Others had been the junior to mid-level Obama appointees and their next stop were the senior level appointments in the next Democratic administration regardless of which Democrat was elected. There’s a club. They’re all in on that the major, ongoing threat to the US is a form of great power competition with the PRC. Which is why all of the US’s strategic documents give the PRC pride of place as an ever emerging threat despite the actual reality of the ongoing, enduring threats from Russia and the never ending, and unlikely to end in my lifetime, destructive volatility of the entire Middle East. A fair amount of which we’re responsible for because of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney’s stupid idea to invade Iraq in 2003.

What this team was not put together to do was serve as the senior natsec staff for a major, and frankly genocidal, interstate war in Europe, which is part of Russia’s ongoing world war against the US, the EU, and NATO, as well as Bibi Netanyahu’s megalomaniacal narcissism, his extremist coalition, Yahya Sinwar’s nihilism, and Hamas. Personnel is policy and these personnel were put into place to do something else. They are the wrong makes, models, and types to manage what the US and our allies and partners are currently facing and will continue to face for years to come. The result is that Putin and Russia, Bibi and his extremist partners, and Sinwar continually wrong foot the US. President Biden’s failure was not in appointing these people, they are all eminently qualified. His failure was not replacing them with the right makes, models, and types to handle the crises the US is currently and will continue to face.

President Zelenskyy and First Lady Zelenska both addressed the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen today. Video of First Lady Zelenska’s address is below followed after the jump by the video and English transcript of President Zelenskyy’s address.

Children’s Safety Is Everyone’s Concern Today – President’s Speech at the Fourth Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen

12 September 2024 – 19:54

Dear First Ladies and Gentlemen!

Dear Guests!

Ladies and Gentlemen!

First of all, I want to thank all of you, the First Lady of Ukraine, and all participants and guests of this Summit. Thank you for this productive day, for this extremely important event. Thank you for coming to Ukraine during these challenging times and for standing with us as we overcome them together. Now and in the past years, over the course of which this global platform has proven that it is a necessary venue where important voices from around the world are heard, an effective platform where crucial solutions are found and then implemented. It brings more protection to life and more justice to the world.

Thanks to your activity, dialogue and initiatives, and the fact that you act today as true ambassadors of the bright side of history, promoters of human values, and ambassadors of life.

And I congratulate all of you on holding this year’s Summit, the fourth one already. Despite the war, all the challenges, threats, and difficulties, Ukraine once again brings together First Ladies and Gentlemen from around the world. This is very important. We must not shy away from challenges but overcome them, we must not look away from threats. We must address difficult and pressing issues, seek out answers, and find them. We must keep the world’s attention on Ukraine and ensure the world does not forget, because it’s not just Ukraine under attack today, but the values of freedom and life globally. This year’s topic is children’s safety.

It’s hard to imagine two more polar, more opposite concepts than “war” and “children.” Unfortunately, in today’s world, there are those who have chosen the former – war. Aggressors, dictators – whatever you call them – they have chosen destruction over development. Ruthless and constant violations of children’s rights instead of protecting and caring for future generations.

This is the most painful aspect of war. The fact that children are the most vulnerable during war is not just words. It’s a fact. Nothing tugs at the heart more or sounds more terrifying than a child saying, “I’m scared.”

You can rebuild destroyed homes, restore the economy, rebuild infrastructure capacities, and clear territories scattered with enemy mines – you can do all that. But how do you give back a stolen childhood? Is there a “compensation mechanism” for taking away children’s peace and safety?

Recently, I was told a story. It was about a conversation between our warriors in a trench on the frontline. An experienced fighter who has been defending Ukraine since the very beginning of the occupation in 2014 praised his brother-in-arms for his bravery. They had just returned from a combat mission. Then he expressed regret that they hadn’t met earlier, as those qualities would have been very useful. He asked, “Where were you in 2015?” The brother-in-arms replied, “In 10th grade.”

I think this story is a tragedy. It’s reality. And I think there are many such stories among us: on the front lines, in civilian life. Unfortunately, far too many, because of this war that Putin has brought. Yesterday’s children are today’s warriors, defending their homeland and sacrificing their lives.

Some were in school, some had just entered university, and each of them had their childhood, youth, and part of their life stolen.

This is what happens if evil is not put in its place immediately. This is what happens when the world spends years thinking about red lines and searching for diplomatic solutions in dealing with those who have been undiplomatically killing, burning, and raping for years. For years, annexing, waging wars, and fighting them for as long as they need. And they will continue doing so. As long as the world is asleep. As long as some pretend to care. As long as some believe in the narrative that Putin is fighting Nazism in Ukraine or neo-Nazis of some kind. Which Nazis exactly? Today, in Kyiv, we are saying goodbye to our warrior, a fallen Ukrainian defender, the son of Ukraine’s Chief Rabbi, Moshe Azman. I want to express my condolences to him and to all those who have lost loved ones. Today, war affects everyone. It affects all of us in Ukraine, in Europe, and around the world. All of us: men, women, our parents, but above all, our children.

Ten days ago, Ukraine celebrated Knowledge Day – the start of the new school year. But the war has brought completely different kinds of knowledge to our country and our children. Knowledge that no child on this planet should have. Going to the first lesson to the sound of sirens, learning not just language, history, and math but also short routes to the bomb shelter, adapting to online education, adapting to studying in another country, in another language. This is difficult, too.

And the worst thing is not seeing your mother or father, when our families are separated because of a full-scale war that has been going on for almost three years. Our children born after February 24th have already learned to walk. They’ve already learned to speak. Unfortunately, war has taught them words like “alarm,” “attack,” “missiles,” “shelling,” “strikes,” “danger.”

These are challenges not meant for children. And that’s why today, our children ask questions of grown-ups: “Is it flying again?” “When can we go outside?” “Was that a hit or our air defense?” “When will dad come home?” “Why doesn’t God punish and take away this Putin?” And the most important question: “When will this war end?”

And this question comes from every child in Ukraine, from every single one. And it is a question for all of us, for all the adults on Earth. And it requires honest answers. It requires that we all be honest, especially with ourselves.

Because it’s easy to condemn a Russian missile hitting our school. But it’s not so easy to admit that the missile might contain parts made in America, Europe, Asia, or any other part of the world. There is a saying, “The devil is in the details.” Unfortunately, the example of these missiles proves this, in every sense of the phrase.

How is this possible? Why is this possible? And while it may be hard to admit, is it really that hard to fix, to stop, to resolve?

This Summit, in particular, and all the efforts of Ukraine and our allies in general, prove that the safety of children today concerns all of us: each and every one of us.

It should unite us, and it is uniting everyone today, regardless of any political levels. Leaders of nations, First Ladies and Gentlemen, international organizations and institutions, active, brave, and caring people from around the world. In general – adults, who must overcome challenges not meant for children.

Ukraine is determined to solve this issue. Ukraine knows the answers to all these questions. We offer our solutions to the world. Our Peace Formula, our victory plan, the Peace Summit – all contain just answers for a just end to the war. This is what should happen when the one who has encroached on the safety of children is held accountable for their actions, and when repeating such crimes in the future becomes impossible.

So that children in Ukraine and all over the world can have a happy childhood, so that loved ones are nearby, and families are not torn apart by this shameful war Russia has brought. So that the world never again sees pictures of a child’s room hit by a shell or a child being pulled out of the rubble after a missile strike. This war, and all wars, must become a thing of the past. This war, and all wars, must become a thing of the past.

Ukraine strives for this. Ukraine unites the world for this. Ukraine and the world must achieve this.

Once again, I thank all of you for organizing this Summit, for participating, for coming to Ukraine, and for fighting with us. We will surely win. We must.

Thank you for your attention!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Here’s the (machine) translation:

In the Central Synagogue of Kyiv, they said goodbye to Matityagu Samborsky, the son of the chief rabbi of Ukraine, who died at the front.

Farewell words were said by his father, the chief rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Asman, other relatives and the ambassador of Israel to Ukraine Mykhailo Brodskyi.

Matityahu Samborskyi, son of the Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Azman, died defending Ukraine. On September 12, his funeral took place in the central synagogue of Kyiv.

The rabbi shared that he and his wife adopted Matityahu in 2002. At that time, he was 11 years old and had the name Anton. The new family gave him a Jewish name – Matityahu. In May of this year, the Defender’s daughter was born.

Eternal memory and eternal glory to Ukrainian Hero.

📷: Suspilne

May his memory be a blessing.

Lithuania:

Romania:

I had a fruitful phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Romania, @AngelTilvar.

The main topic is strengthening Ukrainian skies’ protection from russian missiles and drones.

Ukraine will soon receive a new Patriot air defense system from our Romanian partners.

There will also be more F-16s in Ukrainian skies. A group of our pilots is already undergoing training in Romania.

I thanked my Romanian colleague, people, and government for supporting and strengthening our air defense.

We agreed to continue cooperation.

Together, to victory! 🇺🇦🇷🇴

Turkey:

Russian missile against a wheat cargo bound for Egypt. Tonight, Russia launched a strike on an ordinary civilian vessel in the Black Sea right after it left Ukrainian territorial waters. Fortunately, there were no casualties, according to preliminary reports.

Ukraine is one of the key global food security guarantors. Domestic stability and normal life in dozens of countries around the world are dependent on the normal and unhindered operation of our food expert corridor.

Ukraine’s food deliveries to African and Middle Eastern countries are critical. We will continue to make every effort to safeguard our ports, the Black Sea, and food exports to global markets. This is Ukraine’s true priority—to protect life—and it should be the priority of all countries.

We are waiting for the world to react. Wheat and food security should never be targets for missiles.

Naval News has the details:

A Turkish operated merchant vessel, the MV Aya, has been hit by a Russian Kh-22 missile launched by a Tu-22M Backfire bomber. The Belize-owned, St. Kitts & Nevis flagged ship was sailing from the port of Chornomorsk, carrying 26,550 tons of grain for Egypt.

According to people familiar with the incident, the ship was hit by the missile at around 23:05 on September 11, 75km (46 miles) south of Snake Island. This places it in Romanian EEZ.

The Kh-22 missile, known by the NATO reporting name AS-4 Kitchen, is a very large anti-ship missile. It flies at Mach 4.6 (5,600 km/h; 3,500 mph) and carries a 1,000 kg (2,205 lb) warhead. This makes it much larger, and harder hitting, than Harpoon or Exocet class missiles. The missile was launched from a Russian Tu-22M Backfire bomber. Only Russia operates this aircraft or missile.

The missile was developed during the Cold War to attack aircraft carriers and other high-value targets. While old, it remains formidable. Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine Russia has employed it against ground targets, including Snake Island.

Modern merchant ships have proven very resilient to missiles, although the risk to the vessel and crew remains high. Context is everything. This is demonstrated by the Houthi Movement who have struck a number of vessels with ballistic missiles in the Red Sea, resulting in broadly similar damage.

More at the link!

So we’ve got a bulk grain carrier operated by a crew from Turkey, a NATO member, attacked in the territorial waters of Romania, also a NATO ally.

The US:

The Times has the details: (emphasis mine)

President Putin has warned Britain and the United States that they will be “at war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets across the border.

Sir Keir Starmer and President Biden will hold talks on Friday in the White House about allowing Ukraine to use British-made Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia.

They are expected to reach an agreement within weeks after accusing Moscow of a “significant escalation” in the conflict as Russia bought more than 200 ballistic missiles from Iran for use against Ukraine.

But before the meeting, Putin told Russian state television on Thursday that the move would “change the very nature of the conflict” in a “significant” way forcing Moscow to respond. “It would mean that Nato countries are at war with Russia,” he said. “We will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.”

Starmer immediately dismissed his warning. “Russia started this conflict,” he said as he travelled to Washington. “Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia can end this conflict straight ­away. Ukraine has the right to self- defence, and obviously we’ve been ­absolutely fully supportive of Ukraine’s right to self-defence, providing training capabilities. But we don’t seek any ­conflict with Russia, that’s not our ­intention in the slightest. But they started this conflict, and Ukraine’s got a right to self-defence.”

In a significant shift in tone, Starmer and Biden are expected to hold talks on how to bring Putin’s invasion of Ukraine to an end.

Starmer will use a two-hour meeting in the White House with Biden to discuss how to bring about a “long-term solution” to the war, as well as the conflict in Gaza. The discussions represent a shift from the present policy of staying the course to one where there is some form of end to the conflict.

The UK and US are expected to agree to allow Ukraine to use British-made long-range Storm Shadow missiles and their French equivalent, Scalp missiles, against targets in Russia. However, Biden may stop short of allowing Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS — ballistic missiles — in Russia, according to two sources, amid concern about Putin’s response. Starmer confirmed that today’s meeting would address the “nature of that capability” but refused to be drawn on details.

The prime minister said: “We will, of course, be talking about many things in the round, but this is not a sort of a ­series of individual decisions that we want to arrive at. It is making sure that all the decisions we made are within the strategic context.”

Biden is understood to have been more reluctant than Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, who has become more aligned with Britain on the use of long-range missiles on Russian targets.

A western official said they believed the discussion in Washington would centre on “how do we use the remaining months of the Biden administration to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position by the end of the year”.

By increasing western support for Ukraine and relaxing rules around missile use, the UK hopes to give Zelensky a stronger hand in the build-up to any future deal with Putin. Areas of discussion on Friday are likely to include how to bring Putin to the table and whether Ukraine will accept a deal that agrees to relinquishing chunks of its territory in return for peace.

If Biden decides to go ahead with the option of just allowing Ukraine to fire British and French missiles inside Russia then he may disappoint his Ukrainian allies.

One Ukrainian military source criticised the idea of discussions rumbling on and the prospect of Biden allowing only certain long-range weapons to be used inside Russia.

The source said: “I think this war can’t be won or stopped by half measures. Every day costs us a number of human lives and destruction and we are always begging for obvious things needed for our survival. It’s not fair to buy time with human lives.”

More at the link.

It is this strategic incoherence and repeatedly demonstrated hesitance and cowardice that empowers Putin.

The list of things russia struck today include: a Red Cross vehicle, a wheat shipment bound for Egypt, the home of an 86-year-old woman in Borova, along with other houses and civilians there, and an apartment building in Konotop.

The list goes on, growing every day. The pressing question remains: When will the world finally muster the courage to help us stop these terrorists?

Putin, like the Russian leaders before him with the exception, perhaps, of Gorbachev, look for weakness and then exploit it wherever it is found.

Kennan’s Long Telegram is still prescient and spot on.

The Black Sea:

Russian Su-30SM was downed from MANPADS during one of the operations in the Black Sea, official statement from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine:

“During the operation in the waters of the Black Sea, the soldiers of the special unit of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine destroyed a Russian Su-30SM combat aircraft with a MANPADS hit.

The fighter that fell into the sea belonged to the 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, which is based at the airfield of the city of Saki in the temporarily occupied Crimea.

The Russians lost contact with their battleship on September 11, 2024 around 5 am. Roughly three hours later, Russians launched a search and rescue operation involving the An-26 aircraft, as well as Mi-8 and Ka-27 helicopters.

At lunchtime, Russians reported to the command about a characteristic stain from aviation fuel discovered in the sea, 70 kilometers northwest of Cape Tarkhankut, and soon they also saw the wreckage of the destroyed Su-30SM.”

https://t.me/DIUkraine/4406

Kharkiv:

Borova, Kharkiv Oblast:

Konotop, Sumy Oblast:

Kreminna:

Pokrovsk:

❗️Pokrovsk was left without gas and water.

A filtration station ceased operating due to combat, and it’s impossible to get it working again. Drinking water is brought to people.

Russian troops also destroyed a gas distribution station.

Today, Russians destroyed a bridge between Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

People continue evacuating from a city to which a war has approached.

Virolyubivka, Donetsk Oblast:

Speaking of cowardice, the ICRC has not covered itself in glory in Ukraine. Nor in Gaza. Nor Sudan. Nor anywhere else lately.

Not quite sure where in Ukraine this is:

46th Brigade of Ukraine repulsed the biggest assault on the Brigades position. 46 units of Russian AFVs were used in the assault:

“On September 12, Russians attacked with four waves of assaults from 5:45 a.m. to noon on the positions of the battalions of 46th Brigade. A total of 46 units of armored and not so armored vehicles fell on us.

And the record was set! Such a number of destroyed and damaged enemy equipment in one day in the direction of responsibility of the 46th Brigade has never really happened. With effective fire from all available means of destruction 15 units (9 BMPs, 2 tanks, 2 APCs and 2 motorcycles) were destroyed and 11 BMPs were disabled.”

https://t.me/oaembr46/1012

The Kursk cross border offensive:

So after five weeks, Russia has launched its counteroffensive in Kursk. Key takeaways:

– Ukrainian troops made early gains, but it was always a question of when and what reserves Russia would deploy.
– Kursk showcases Ukraine’s ability to effectively wear down Russian forces.
– Ukrainian forces are experiencing increased pressure as Russia brings in more reinforcements.
– Cross-border raids will likely continue to be effective for exposing weak points in Russian defenses.
– It’s too early to make a clear assessment of how large or fast the Russian counteroffensive might be.

More from Estonian reserve Soldier Artur Rehi:

After the loud announcement of the Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the news from the Russian side has died down. The Russian Defense Ministry reports “the destruction of 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers,” but there is no video, no photos, no statements about regaining
1/11Image
control over major settlements. Putin gave the order to recapture the Kursk region by October 1, but the counteroffensive is stalling. Ukrainian soldiers write in Telegram that heavy fighting is underway, not without losses, but the counterattack was expected and
2/11Image
the Russians were expected. Russia has now switched from bombing to frontal attacks, which allows for greater resource losses. Ukraine expected and prepared for this step and to inflict serious damage on the advancing troops. Apparently, Syrskyi plan has begun to work and
3/11Image
Russia has transferred resources to the Kursk region and will transfer more to fulfill Putin’s decree. If this becomes a priority for the Russian army, then we can expect a decrease in the intensity of Russia’s offensive in the Donetsk region. The offensive on Pokrovsk has
4/11Image
already started to stall, but this is compared to August. Russia is still storming there every day and there are very difficult battles. Autumn has come and soon it will be more difficult to conduct military operations. Especially to conduct an offensive. If Russia does
5/11Image
not recapture the Kursk region before the rains start, it will be more difficult for it to do so. It will be even more difficult to do so if Ukraine starts to strike deep into Russia. Apparently, Great Britain is lifting restrictions on the use of Storm Shadow deep into
6/11Image
Russian territory and there is talk of the United States making the same decision. Most likely, the missiles supplied will have a range of about 250 kilometers, because this is an export version, but within this radius there are many juicy targets for Ukrainian missiles.
7/11Image
Logistics, airfields in Rostov-on-Don, Voronezh, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, troop columns – this is only a small list of targets that Ukraine can hit first. If talk of lifting restrictions turns out to be true, it will be another problem added to the huge list of difficulties
8/11Image
in Russia. The red lines are over, the nuclear scarecrow does not work, the economy is at the limit and is about to collapse, resources are depleted. The equipment is running out, but there are still people. But in 2 years there is no longer a professional army and the army
9/11Image
consists of cripples, alcoholics, criminals and old men with conscripts. But this army also causes colossal damage. It is precisely because of this composition that it has no morality and leaves behind a trail of war crimes and scorched earth. Although the “professional
10/11Image
army” in Russia is not much different from this. But the crisis in the Russian army and management is growing. This is a downward spiral that cannot be stopped and sooner or later Russia will fall into a free fall to the bottom.
11/11Image

 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

❤️

♬ som original – vih_a.r

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

31Comments

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    @TomB5: No one from the longstanding foreign and natsec community at the DC think tanks, FFRDCs, and at elite schools of foreign policy and international studies.

  4. 4.

    Chris

    “Russia’s just a red herring, China is the real threat!” has been a Republican talking point since 2016, largely because it means they don’t have to address Russia’s BFF relationship with Trump, with a side order of “the Russians are white and the Chinese aren’t, so thematically this fits with our ideological direction anyway.”

    Deeply sad that a whole Democratic national security team has ended up in the same place.

  5. 5.

    Chris

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The Cold War was the Blob’s baptism, first communion, and confirmation all rolled together. Have the “deter Russia” and “roll back Russia” instincts just been completely purged from all the memory banks?

    I mean, I imagine the answer is “the Democrats haven’t had to be hawks in a long time and the Republicans all do partisanship uber alles,” but Jesus Christ.

  7. 7.

    Librarian

    I don’t know who is on Biden’s natsec team besides Blinken and Sullivan, but are there any members of that team who have any expertise on Russia and know Russian? It seems to me that whoever is there has no idea how to deal with Russia or Putin, and think that the way to deal with him is to appease him.

  8. 8.

    Jay

    @Librarian:

    In the post Soviet era, ruZZian “studies” in Academia and NatSec switched the focus from containing the Soviet Union globally, to trying to get ruZZia “onside” with the global community, economically and security wise. Chechnia was ignored, Serbia was ignored, Georgia was excused.

    Basically the last 40 years of so called ruZZian “experts” have been trained in appeasement.

  9. 9.

    jame

    Thank you for covering the war in Ukraine so thoroughly and sharing your insights. I read your posts every evening, though it is sad and frustrating to learn about Ukraine’s struggle and our (US) inaction. I had hoped that Biden would free Ukraine to strike back at Russia, and am so disappointed that doesn’t seem to be the case.

  10. 10.

    Chris

    @Librarian:

    “For fuck’s sake! For seventy years, you’ve been calling every jumped-up mountain bandit with an AK-47 and a grudge against United Fruit the New Hitler! NOW of all times you’ve suddenly forgotten how to be hawks? What the fuck is wrong with you people?”

  12. 12.

    Jay

    TFIF suspends screening of film on Russian soldiers after threats
    Russians at War screenings paused over ‘significant threats to festival operations and public safety’

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/russians-at-war-paused-1.7321915

    They had one showing, with protests outside, fliers distributed, TIFF pulling the fliers from the audiences hands, and two in theatre disruptions, one a woman handing out more fliers, the other a man shouting “you are watching ruZZian propaganda”.

    Toronto Police cannot confirm there were any threats, TIFF has not substantiated their claims of threats, because liars, lie.

    TIFF is now whinging about Freeze Peach, which doesn’t exist in Canada and demanding a Federal Investigation.

  13. 13.

    KatKapCC

    It is maddening to me how inept and timid our current admin is being regarding Ukraine. And even more so knowing that they are still 1000 times better than whatever parade of monsters Trump would bring in with him.

  14. 14.

    Chet Murthy

    @Jay: i sure hope Canada’s domestic intelligence agencies are investigating the bank accounts of the people who greenlit this piece of Russian propaganda filth.

  15. 15.

    Chris

    @Jay:

    Getting Russia on-board didn’t get in the way of NATO expansion eastward, which continued into the Dubya era, nor for that matter intervening against Serbia a couple of times in the Yugoslav Wars. Somebody in Washington still knew how to say something other than “yes master” to Russia, at least in the nineties and 2000s.

  18. 18.

    wjca

    A Turkish operated merchant vessel, the MV Aya, has been hit by a Russian Kh-22 missile launched by a Tu-22M Backfire bomber.

    It occurs to me to wonder if the Turks have a missle able to hit the base that bomber came from.  Wouldn’t even have to do major damage.  Just a bang, to remind Putin that he shouldn’t get too cocky.  Just because Biden’s natsec folks are super risk-averse doesn’t mean everybody is.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    Made me look… Politico.eu (from November 2020):

    […]

    “Put simply, the world is safer for the American people when we have friends, partners and allies,” Blinken said in 2016. He has described Europe as “a vital partner” and has dismissed the Trump administration’s plans to remove U.S. troops from Germany as “foolish, it’s spiteful, and it’s a strategic loser. It weakens NATO, it helps Vladimir Putin, and it harms Germany, our most important ally in Europe.”

    On every major foreign policy issue — terrorism, climate, pandemics, trade, China, the Iran nuclear deal — he has a recurring mantra: the U.S. should work with its allies and within international treaties and organizations. Blinken also views U.S. leadership in multilateral institutions as essential. “There is a premium still, and in some ways even more than before, on American engagement, on American leadership,” Blinken said earlier this year.

    […]

    In his roles in the NSC under Obama and as deputy secretary of state, Blinken advocated for more robust U.S. involvement in the Syria conflict, and notably broke with his boss, Biden, to support the armed intervention in Libya. He was also a close aide to Biden when the then-senator supported the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. He continues to believe that diplomacy needs to be “supplemented by deterrence” and “force can be a necessary adjunct to effective diplomacy. In Syria, we rightly sought to avoid another Iraq by not doing too much, but we made the opposite error of doing too little.”

    […]

    I think he and Biden are right about the first part.

    On the second part, Libya and Syria, I don’t think there were any good answers. Any answer that depended on the USA doing most of the heavy lifting with only token buy-in by regional players and important NATO allies was probably doomed to failure or a continuing quagmire. And just about any go-big answer would be like that unless the stars magically aligned – and they almost never do.

    Thanks.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: I know many, many Ukrainian-Canadians, and this “threats” stuff smells like bullshit to me. If they were real, they did not come from this community.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @Chris:

    at that time, ruZZia didn’t care. The West was spending billions on ruZZian oil, gas, gold, diamonds, minerals, timber, inviting ruZZia to become the 8th G. ruZZian rubles were laundered for Dollars, Euro’s, Pounds, with skimming all the way, and turned into Real Estate, Bonds, Corporations, Stocks, in the West. Politicians, “Experts” and “Players” found lucrative “careers” sitting on both ruZZian Boards and ruZZian owned Boards in the West. In exchange, “The West” ignored ruZZian “internal” issues, ignored or excused ruZZian military foray’s into “protecting ruZZians abroad”, enlisted the aid of the ruZZian mob to take down the Italian mobs, and of course, “cooperation” on “combatting” “Islamic Terrorism”.

    ruZZia cares so much about NATO “expansion” that 80% of the ruZZian forces in the Finnish border have been pulled and sent to the SMO, Kalinigrad has been stripped of air defenses and most of it’s troops.

    ruZZia made a lot of dirty money from it’s enclaves abroad, like Ukraine, but the Georgian War and the Revolution of Dignity, along with demands elsewhere for Democracy and and end to corruption threatens all that.

  22. 22.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: The problem is deeper than that, it is rooted in the russo-centrism of Western academia – not just in FP/IR, but linguistics, literature, art, all of it. How many universities have a “Department of russian and East European Studies?” How many Slavic or other Eastern European languages can one obtain a PhD in, say? And the tenure system makes it worse, because it’s self-perpetuating. If the department head is fluent only in English and russian, and you want to write your thesis on Milan Kundera, how well does that fly?

    The “academic freedom” which tenure supposedly provides does not often extend to the freedom to challenge/dispute the professor’s (recognized or not) biases, and certainly not to challenge things like staffing decisions. I’m going to hold a lot back here, but I know someone quite well who, a year or two after getting his Master’s from one of the top 3-4 FP/IR faculties in the US fairly publicly called them out for appointing a very obvious russian agent to a program position. Their thesis adviser, with whom they tried to discuss the conflict in confidence, basically responded with “don’t e-mail me again.” The top US FP/IR programs are not a comfortable place for those who believe that russia is engaged in genocide. But these are the programs that have historically filled “the Blob.”

  23. 23.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Yeah, the “threats” stuff is bullshit.

    When you get a threat of violence, you document it and call the police. TPS was not contacted at all by TIFF.

    TIFF lied about the documentary, sanitized the bio’s of the “documentarians”, career ruZZian propagandists,

    so more lies are not surprising.

  26. 26.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris: I don’t think it is that complicated. The baseline consensus of the “Blob”, whether they lean D or R, is preserving US primacy at all costs, & that’s been true forever. The “Blob” believes that the PRC is the greater threat to US primacy, far greater than Russia or any other power. That is a rational assessment, if highly myopic (no hegemony lasts forever & there will always be rising powers that challenge the status quo) & badly incomplete (forgotten is the global destabilizing impact of AGW, or the rising reactionary tendency generated by global working/middle class precarity).

    If the “Blob” is sincere about preserving a “liberal rules based  international order”, or any international order, they would prioritize the immediate threat posed by Putin (& isolating him by achieving a balanced relationship w/ the PRC & something less than relentless enmity w/ Iran & NK), they would constrain Israel’s bloodlust, they would reform rather than neuter organizations such as the WTO. They would promote international collaboration on energy transition, global health, and economic development in the Global South, instead of treating them all as battlegrounds for Great Power Competition. However, most of the “Blob” does not care about “liberal rules based international order”, they care about primacy. To them, an international order not dominated & dictated by the US is not worth realizing or preserving.

    Furthermore, Great Power Competition w/ the PRC is the only policy area w/ something of a bipartisan consensus, especially in Congress (albeit a shallower one than often appreciated). For any aspiring policy analyst, policy advisor or even policymaker, regardless of seniority, promoting Great Power Competition w/ the PRC is the surest path for career advancement, greater influence & material reward. Anyone that falls outside of the consensus is not only unwelcome, but actively ostracized.

    Adam has alluded to such dynamics operating in the “club” before, it is quite obvious if you read more Van Jackson, especially his 3-part mini-series on Kurt Campell (former Indo-Pacific “Czar” & current Assistant Secretary of State under Blinken), as well as the one on Hal Brand (a rising “star” who is influential in the “Blob” of both D & R persuasions).

    Remember, many of the current Dem FP grandees (including Kurt Campbell) went right along w/ the neocons for invasion of Iraq & the prosecution of the GWOT in general, w/ only some rhetorical reticence.

  28. 28.

    Gin & Tonic

    Finally finished reading through all of Adam’s post, and just wanted to add that the ICRC are complete moral midgets.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Even more delusional than the Chinese ultra-nationalists who dream of recovering Outer Mongolia and Far Eastern Siberia, on par w/ Mongolian ultra-nationalists who dream of reestablishing Genghis Khan’s empire.

    Russia (& India, too) also has a vested interest in keep the US & the PRC at logger heads.

    The CPC leadership certainly has agency on how things developed & is developing, & thus bear its share of the responsibilities, but at the end of the day international relations are relational by nature.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The difference is, these are people paid by the ruZZian State, to be on ruZZian State media, to push ruZZian State talking points and threats, not Dugan’s and other fringe Nationalists.

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