Thanks to valued commenter BR for flagging this video in the last thread. If you check out his remarks, you’ll see that Doug Emhoff is an excellent surrogate for VP Harris:
Emhoff talks about the debate, and he hits on something I’ve seen other commenters note — how gratifying it was to see Harris call Trump a disgrace, a laughingstock and a liar who is unfit to be president. She said it right to his ugly orange face! And it was glorious!
I’m also grateful to the Harris-Walz campaign for showing up in Florida. The Villages, no less! I think we’re going to win this election.
Open thread!
Chacal Charles Calthrop
taking advantage of this open thread: it seems my niece wants to study at Macalester college in St Paul, Minnesota.
any Jackals know anything about it?
Baud
Keep the faith, BC!
BellyCat
If we can’t win this, given Trump’s incompetence, we’ll get the government we deserve, and likely for a long while.
delphinium
Also, soooo normal. Can’t even imagine Trump or Vance ever speaking about their wife like this. Glad he made it to The Villages-they sounded very enthusiastic! And the talk about the golf carts : ).
Nolo Conosco
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: Historically, Mac is pretty small, but a very good school.
delphinium
Also, soooo normal. Can’t even imagine Trump or Vance ever speaking about their wife like this. Glad he made it to The Villages-they sounded very enthusiastic! And the talk about the golf carts : ).
Mike in Pasadena
Be sure to google the stories about the woman who posted on Facebook the story from a friend of a friend about immigrants eating cats. She never imagined that it might go viral or cause a stir and regrets posting the rumor. (I haven’t read all the threads, so surely this is old news to BJers. Still, I love seeing proof that Facebook is the source of much evil in the US.)
Elizabelle
I think we are going to win, too. But: we have to work work work for the Senate and House. And local candidates/issues.
I hope MVP has beautiful coattails. The most beautiful coattails.
eclare
I’m watching Bama vs Wisconsin and just saw a Harris ad. It was positive, she’ll be a president for all Americans.
narya
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: The son of a very close friend went there and liked it, I believe.
mrmoshpotato
Yes, yes, and yes!
Chief Oshkosh
@Mike in Pasadena:
She has regrets? Bravo Foxtrot Delta. Save it for the chaplain. What is she going to DO to make amends? Wring her hands and meep on FB? She ought to be mowing the lawns and washing the toilets of every Haitian immigrant in Springfield, all the while begging for forgiveness and praying that the Nazis don’t kill a Haitian child or three.
narya
OT: I posted pics of the decorative focaccia over on blue sky (@gingerchef).
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Nolo Conosco: Thks
@narya: thks
I literally never heard of Macalester before she shared the news, and no-one in my family has ever lived closer to Minnesota than Scranton, Pennsylvania, so this is completely new.
Mousebumples
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: not much. I toured when I was in high school (20+ years ago), and I liked it. Once I decided on pharmacy as my path, I focused on schools with a College of Pharmacy.
I think they have an endowment or something from the people that created Reader’s Digest? Maybe? (could also be apocryphal)
Good luck!
trollhattan
Somebody get this man an “I really don’t care do U?” jacket.
scav
@Mike in Pasadena: Oh my Golly! A vile unsubstantiated thing said in a public broadcast space has been traced to its originator and has consequences for same?! Consequences for her?! That’s not what she signed up for!
Prometheus Shrugged
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: Amazing coincidence–our current houseguest is an alum and we were talking about her experience there last night. She was my wife’s former PhD student who is now about to take a new faculty position. The subject came up because for the last 10 years she’s lived in some fairly glamorous cities around the world and will be moving to another desirable cosmopolitan area for her job. Anyway, she loved her time at Macalester and said that St. Paul compared favorably to any of places she lived. The only drawback in her opinion is the (long) winter weather season which can get depressing for some. Otherwise the school itself has an excellent reputation in many fields.
Mousebumples
@eclare: same! (on all the levels, we’re watching the same game)
I saw my first upside Trump 2024 yard sign today. I’m debating if that’s pro or anti Trump. (it was in a yard with other GOP signs, like Hovde)
Also saw a yard with other GOP signs where the TRUMP name was removed/punched out/something.
Not a part of the state I frequent, so unclear if this was a change post debate, or…?
ETA – also saw Dem signs in other yards. Though still waiting on Harris Walz signs. Sigh.
Kay
Sturgeon’s Law
@Sturgeons_Law
4h
So far, the visual evidence of Springfield Haitians illegally killing/eating animals has amounted to: 1. A non-Haitian mentally ill woman in Canton killing a cat 2. A non-Haitian man in Columbus legally clearing roadkill 3. Dead cats in Texas that cops say were killed by coyotes
Just a reminder- Christopher Rufo is promoting this panic.
The NYTimes gave Christopher Rufo two glowing profiles complete with soft-focus photos of him staring into the distance, thinking.
Scout211
Let’s do this! All three branches. There’s a lot of work to do and donations to be made, but let’s go!
Oh and clean up on aisle “truth social.” His social media minions are trying to downplay his obsession with Loomer.
Trump’s social media minions pretending to be Trump: “Don’t believe what I say, don’t believe what I do and don’t believe who I hang around with. Just believe what I am saying right now on this social media site that very few people read.” 🙄
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@Prometheus Shrugged: Thks! My niece grew up in Seattle so endless grey skies will be nothing new for her. And she skies so I think she doesn’t mind the cold.
Trivia Man
@eclare: side question – how do they get the fans to dress so coordinated? Sections alternate red/ light red
mrmoshpotato
@narya: Flowery! Yumm-o!
eclare
@Trivia Man:
I guess word gets out on social media? My alma mater, UT Knoxville, does that too for big games. It’s pretty impressive, all that alternating orange and white.
japa21
@Chacal Charles Calthrop:
Way back when, the 60s, Macalaster was trying to get me to go there. Sometimes I think it would have been better than going to Michigan State. It’s a small liberal arts school and if it hasn’t changed much has a pretty good reputation, if you overlook the part about them trying to get me as a student.
Falling Diphthong
I think we’re going to win this election.
Three things I’d like everyone to bear in mind re polls. The first two are just reality facts. Further thoughts in footnotes.
• Polls have become less accurate over the past several years.*
• Polls have consistently underestimated Democratic turnout since ’20.**
• I saw modern polls described as “self-priming betting markets.” The energy and headlines generated by polls is all out of proportion to how predictive they are, especially when it’s just another iteration of “looks like a close race that will come down to turnout in various demographics.”***
*I think this is just that this is in part that there is now always something more interesting than answering a poll that you could be doing. So not swinging back unless Project 2025 takes people’s TVs away. You should probably look at even good quality polls (e.g. Quinnipiac) with an assumed ±5. So if a good poll says 60-40, the person who’s up is likely to win. If it says 52-47 with 1% undecided, that should be shorthanded to “no one knows, looks close.”
** This includes both close races, and also those which were predicted to go R but did so by a notably smaller margin, or D but did so by a notably larger margin.
*** As someone who quite enjoyed reading Nate Silver 10-15 years ago: woof. He crossed my attention during the DNC, absolutely not embodying his image as an objective guy who looks at data and adjusts his priors when told (correctly) he’s wrong. So now when I see a frenzy over a new poll, I picture Nate waxing ecstatic about the added thrill that comes of watching any contest once you’ve got serious money riding on the outcome, and how awesome it is if you’re placing bets so big they move the line toward the outcome you want. (This was about darts. But he now works for Peter Thiel’s politics betting site. And seems to have a severe gambling addiction.)
oldgold
Josh Marshall: “What I keep seeing though is that none of the people in the mix, the trail reporters, the high level campaign people, the electeds near the campaign are treating this like she just has his ear. Freaks have his ear. Totally hard core freaks. That’s just not that big a deal. But if you follow the reporting the whole GOP is REALLY REALLY UPSET about this. Like really upset. Like it’s something very bad. So what is that additional thing? It’s like there’s some Kryptonite in the mix and a lot of people know about it and they absolutely want it tossed off the boat. So what is the Kryptonite.”
I think Marshall is right. There is something to this story. Is the mainstream media up for exploring it?
If disclosed to be true that he has a thing going on with Loomer, does it cost him the election? I think so, but I thought that with the “grab them by the pussy” tape in 2016.
jonas
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: It’s a fine liberal arts college.
Barbara
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: My daughter applied and we visited. It’s small, in the city not suburbs. Well-regarded and the people I’ve known who went there had a good experience. Think Reed, Swarthmore and Grinell as better known peers.
Harrison Wesley
@Kay: This would be the same Chris Rufo assisting the white-booted pudding strangler in destroying Florida’s public university system.
dnfree
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: we visited there with our daughter in the 1990s. It’s got a long-standing reputation for quality and seemed to have an international flavor and emphasis. We were there for some kind of Scottish celebration that I think had to do with the name of the school.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@oldgold: I can’t imagine what would be bad enough.
Melania sues for divorce and spills the tea?
Loomis says she’s pregnant with Trump’s child?
Both?
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@jonas:
@Barbara:
@dnfree: Thks everyone. Very glad to hear it!
oldgold
@Dorothy A. Winsor: If you wrote this into one of your novels, I bet your editor would reject the story line as preposterous.
karen marie
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: I am always baffled by people who claim that Seattle skies are particularly gray. I don’t get it. I lived in Tacoma for three years, lived in Boston for 35 years. Seattle is no more gray than Boston.
Now, Olympia, Washington – that’s a place with rainy skies. I visited there for two weeks one year in March. Incredibly beautiful but the damp was insane.
Please, people, stop slandering Seattle’s lovely climate of mild winters and summers
But the whole reason I am here – thank you for this video, Betty! Doug Emhoff is a wonderful person, and it’s clear he knows and loves Kamala Harris.
Jackie
@delphinium:
Can you just imagine Harris doing a rally at The Villages – and arriving in a golf cart?!
TCFG’s head would explode!!!
If security logistics could be worked out, I hope she considers it!
japa21
I think it is obvious that their internal polling shows FL as winnable.
lowtechcyclist
@Kay:
Because of course he is. That’s who he is.
Of course they did. Because that’s who they are.
Frankensteinbeck
@oldgold:
I don’t think there is anything unknown to the Loomer story. I mean, she’s probably sleeping with him, yeah. They’re freaking out because they see the crazy open racist stuff like ‘Haitians eating pets’ as guaranteeing Trump loses. Loomer’s power over Trump as the only woman willing to touch him ensures he’s going to be at his absolute slimiest. This is like the Biden post-debate freak out, but instead of press-driven the Republicans are internally blaming Loomer.
RaflW
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: Just want to add that I know several Macalester grads and they are, to a one, really great people (all in their 50s, if that matters at all in that this is not ‘current’, but I don’t think the school has fundamentally changed since then).
I live in Minneapolis, and my sense is the school has a great rep. The area around the school is generally safe and attractive, the campus is pretty, at some point I had a lunch in the main student cafeteria and I remember being impressed with the quality of the food (not a reason to go, but compared to my private college, it was notably tasty and fresh seeming).
Mac is known for their ‘design your own degree’ options, which are sometimes looked at by outsiders as something to mildly deride, but y’know, not everyone is a cookie cutter student meant to fit a pre-dimensioned box.
Long way to say, if I were a parent, and my kid could get in (and get a tuition support package to swing it) I’d be proud.
JML
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: My sister’s eldest is at Macalaster. Good school, excellent liberal arts program. Not too big, but large enough to have options. Expensive, but they do have good aid packages. Nestled right in the heart of a cool area of Saint Paul. There’s some typical private school arrogance and superiority that goes on there, but there’s also a good service & citizenship component. It’s a pretty liberal school overall. The kiddo likes it and had a good first year.
Jackie
@Falling Diphthong: In other words: People vote, polls don’t.
And, as Harris reminds us, vote like we’re the underdog, because we are. Every vote counts!
Geoduck
@karen marie: Olympia-area resident here: climate change has come to us like everyone, and we get much less rain and gray than we used to. We’re still a lot better off than many folks.
And I don’t think any one thing will ever sink the Shaitgibbon, but every one of these stupidities hopefully will chip off a few more voters.
Geminid
@Scout211: The Daily Mail is really leaning into the Loomer story. They’ve run at least seven different articles about her and Trump in the last 36 hours, with plenty of photos of the two together.
Some of the articles are about Loomer’s controversial role in the Trump campaign and larger MAGA world. These feature ax-grinding by enemies of campaign managers Susan Wiles and Chris LaCivita. Wiles is accused of not caring about winning so much as returning to the Mercury Partners lobby shop in D.C. with enhanced clout. She reportedly is on a leave of absence from there.
One of the Daily Mail articles reviews Loomer’s feud with Marjorie Taylor Greene, while another covers a recent spat with Bill Maher. I’m not sure who to root in that fight; I can’t stand Maher.
Anoniminous
@Prometheus Shrugged:
Re: winter depression.
Full spectrum light bulbs are Your Friend
RaflW
@japa21: Having the presidential campaign invest in FL is a big deal. Even if Dem polling just shows Rick Scott is in some danger, I’d be pretty happy. Cook has him and Cruz as the only possible pickups, and only “Likely R” at that.
But Cook is notable cautious, IMO. And I just don’t think the politics of Dobbs is really reflected in a lot of this.
RaflW
@Geminid: Kinda wild that The Mail is all over this, but Fox Nooz has a blanket blackout of Loomer doomers (there’s been one online text-based story, and reportedly no airtime allotted to this on Fox).
JoyceH
Something I haven’t seen in the mainstream media. Yesterday when Trump was asked about the false pets story causing school closings and bomb threats, he diverted to the border. I’ve seen the news reporting on that and it includes his first sentence, paraphrasing, “No, the real story is what’s happening on the border.” But they ought to including the second sentence, which I saw in a tv clip, again paraphrasing, where he said, “they’re pouring across the border and they’re killing thousands.” Previously I’d seen Trump and others claim that the migrants come in and commit crimes, etc, and when the occasional migrant kills a citizen they make a big deal out of it. If the migrant invasion was killing THOUSANDS of citizens, wouldn’t that be the only story in the news? How about some reporter do their effing job and call Trump out on this?
Anoniminous
@Falling Diphthong:
Roughly 70% of the statistical universe does not have an equal chance to be randomly selected due to mobile only and that biases heavily toward young and POC. Declining response rates to 6% (2018, Pew Research) and Don’t Pick Ups means the landline polls have to be “adjusted” aka “pulling it out their asses.” Granted national polls tend to be a bit better. Alas, we don’t elect a President by popular vote. So their analysis is completely Who Cares? since it does not reflect the phenomena they are trying to analyze.
Geminid
@RaflW: Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, Rick Scott’s opponent, emigrated to Florida from Uruguay. It seems like a close race. I think Senator Scott needs some help from Laura Loomer!
trollhattan
@Geminid:
BBC has a long read on Loomer front-paged right now. She’s been hiding in plain sight for awhile it seems–personally was happier to not have heard of her. Guess that ship has sailed now and she’ll be around for a looong time.
The US has a lot of nations head-scratching lately.
Anoniminous
@JoyceH:
They are doing their effing job. They are doing exactly what their bosses want them to do. If they didn’t, they’d be fired, and a new wage slave would be brought in since journalism students are three a half-penny.
trollhattan
@Geminid: Her pictured standing next to Skeletor is not an image I wish to see. Just sayin’.
persistentillusion
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: A friend attended there in the 80s and mid-way through her first winter there, asked her mom for a sheepskin bra. So, chilly in the winter.
trollhattan
@persistentillusion: LOL
Now I’m imagining the Arctic remake of One Million Years B.C.
Sister Golden Bear
@Dorothy A. Winsor: Waiting for Loomer to look visibility pregnant — and then visibly not pregnant. Not that the cult would care….
Although Loomer has been enough of a Trump stalker for years that I doubt she’d abort for any amount of money. Plus she’s not going be ignored.
Geminid
@trollhattan: I bet Rick Scott doesn’t want to see that picture either. Scott probably keeps his distance from Loomer. She’s been known in Florida as a crackpot for some years now.
Speaking of pictures, one of the Daily Mail articles had a picture of Suzie Wiles and Chris LaCivita. They were standing outside, like they were waiting for their ride. That’s a mean-looking pair!
karen marie
@Geoduck: Olympia is so beautiful. It took my breathe away. I’m sorry you’re losing the damp, because that means the end of the rain forest.
lowtechcyclist
@Anoniminous:
What do you mean? Random digit dialing doesn’t work for mobile phone numbers? I have no idea what you’re saying, unless you’re saying that pollsters haven’t figured out that most Americans are cell-only nowadays, which they figured out years ago, thanks.
West of the Rockies
@Chief Oshkosh:
Sounds like White woman tears to me.
JoyceH
@lowtechcyclist: are pollsters calling cellphones now? I guess they’d have to, but I wonder how they do it. One thing I’ve noticed is that because people keep their cell numbers when they move, you can no longer tell approximately where a person lives by their area code. A friend lives in Virginia but has an Arizona area code. Not sure how pollsters would correct for that, unless there are lists to match cell numbers with addresses.
mrmoshpotato
@Mike in Pasadena: In a NBC News article, the woman who posted the racist rumor to Facebook claimed she’s not a racist.
Sure thing, you racist bitch.
apocalipstick
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: My child works at Mac. It’s a good school. MN has a lot of small, highly reputable colleges. Mac is in a very neat part of St. Paul, and whenever we visit the Twin Cities seems to be a very nice place.
BeautifulPlumage
@Mike in Pasadena:
and it ends with her claiming she’s not racist (eye roll). She also said she never intended this outcome. Bitch, what did you intend by making that claim then?
BeautifulPlumage
@mrmoshpotato:
ha, beat me to it!
Cheryl from Maryland
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: only that it is in a lovely part of St. Paul, and it’s college gear, according to Wayne and to my Godson since I brought presents for both emblazoned with “MAC” are aces. Sorry not to be of more help.
eclare
@JoyceH:
Yeah, cell phone numbers are now like SSN’s, you keep them for life.
mrmoshpotato
@BeautifulPlumage: Did you watch any of that “debate?”
gwangung
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: I have a friend who teaches theatre and opera there, specializing in Asian American theatre. They’re non-binary and on the tenure track.
catclub
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
AND she already had the abortion.
catclub
Like Trump, she just thought “people are saying” so she had to express it.
BeautifulPlumage
@mrmoshpotato:
not sure which “debate” you’re referring to? I read the ABC article.
mrmoshpotato
@catclub:
“I saw it on TV, and I’m also an IDIOT!”
Kim Walker
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: My niece went there. Very expensive, elite-ish school, with mid-west nice. Niece now has works in DC thanks to connections she made at school.
mrmoshpotato
@BeautifulPlumage: Harris/Dump earlier this week.
catclub
Obviously there are lists, for instance, where the cell phone company sends bills ( yes I know about autopay, but they still get an address.) The question is who has access to the lists. Do the pollsters? I bet they do.
I think 911 systems would like that info, although they would be more interested in the actual location of the phone.
On the third hand, some autodialers clearly do not know we have moved 1300 miles from the state associated with our cell phone numbers.
Jager
@narya: I hired a Marketing Director from Macalester, smart, classy and just crazy enough to be great at her job.
Colette South
@eclare: whwhere I am The University prints the football schedule up with an indication of the color theme, the whiteout game, the red and gold game etc etc
Mai Naem mobile
I don’t know how the vote counting goes in Florida but if Harris picks up FL election night FOX and all their buddies would just stick their hands up in the air and surrender. I bet there’s a good percentage of Dems living at the Villages but they’re are essentially bullied by the GOP residents from being visible. Glad Dougie’s showing up. Hopefully it gives the resdient Dems there some courage in being loud and proud Dems.
brantl
@lowtechcyclist: They can’t get a directory of cell phones, though, or at least that’s my understanding.
KatKapCC
She did what all of us have wanted to do for nearly a decade now. Thank you, MVP.
lowtechcyclist
Yeah, the problem with cell phones is state-level polling. National polling can be done with RDD, and if they’re living in a different state than their area code, it doesn’t matter that much and you can pick it up in the demographic questions at the end anyway.
I wasn’t involved in polling, but I worked on a Federal demographic survey, and back in 2020, my survey used private vendor lists to try to contact by phone individuals that were supposed to be in sample because knocking on doors and getting face-to-face interviews, which was how we normally interviewed, was right out for a while in there. Let’s just say the numbers we got were hit-or-miss.
For state-level polling, area codes would be somewhat useful – you’d get the people who’d lived there all along, and you could identify the out-movers by just starting off with the question, “are you currently a resident of [state]?” But you wouldn’t get the in-movers that way. I assume the pollsters (or rather the vendors they get that part of their sampling frame from) have some special sauce for picking them up, but I’m sure it’s not nearly as good as land lines used to be. State and local polling is just never going to be as accurate as it was 25 years ago.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: I’m waiting for the first Wason Center poll of the season to come out. They poll registered Virginia voters and usually take 3 polls during election season. They seem fairly accurate as to numbers, but I mainly look at trend.
I also look at the demographic breakdown and results regarding party and ideological self-identification: Very Liberal, Liberal, Moderate, Conservative and Very Conservative.”
The Wason Center is part of Christopher Newport University in Newpost News. Rachel Bitecofer used to be poll director; now its another Poli-Sci professer with an interest in climate issues.
MazeDancer
They had a golf cart parade for him.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
@karen marie: I think Seattle may get a worse rap than it deserves because so many people move there from California, and by the standards of southern California it’s cold, grey, and wet.
Then again, in comparison with LA, so is just about every other place on the planet.
@persistentillusion: lol. fortunately niece has an account at REI.
thanks to everyone for responding! Sounds like a good fit for the niece, and that reassures me no end.
Kayla Rudbek
@Chacal Charles Calthrop: it’s a good school and I think that they have a bagpipe band. I’m trying to remember which of my high school classmates went there.
Kayla Rudbek
@Colette South: Notre Dame will do a specific T-shirt for each football season so that the entire student body is a big cluster of one color; they started doing this when I was a freshman. It’s a bit unfortunate for me in the years when they pick a yellow/gold background as I look awful in most of the shades of yellow that they pick. Although the bookstore is more than happy to sell ND t-shirts in navy, green, or white backgrounds regardless of what The Shirt is in a particular year.