By now, you’ve probably spotted two predominant targets of our strategic GOTV fundraising this cycle: 1) the newly-energized youth vote, and 2) the fast-growing swing states of Arizona and North Carolina. After the last census, Michigan and Pennsylvania (and even California) each lost one electoral vote. North Carolina gained an electoral vote (16 votes). Arizona held steady at 11.
Arizona and North Carolina are the future. Both are rapidly growing and diversifying and attracting domestic and international migration. Our efforts are about November 2024, but they are also an investment in the future.
Today, in what I think of as the second-to-last leg of our fundraising, we are kicking off Operation Blue Arizona!
This eleventh-hour push is to get additional boots on the ground with two of our great partners in the Grand Canyon State and help fund candidates that could flip the state Legislature, flip two Republican Congressional seats, change the makeup of the State Supreme Court and protect the integrity of the vote in the crucial County of Maricopa (Phoenix).
Four Directions Arizona
Four Directions needs little introduction here. They’ve mastered the art of paid relational organizing in Indian Country. Relational organizing is the best strategy out there to reach otherwise unreachable voters – through their friends and family. Four Directions already has the infrastructure set up and rolling on Arizona’s reservations – our contributions will provide stipends for additional workers to get out the vote in the community. Arizona’s native community represents over 5% of the state’s population, and the Native vote exceeds the margins of victory in previous elections. Remember, Joe Biden won Arizona by just 10,500 votes in 2020!
Worker Power
Worker Power has grown in size and sophistication since we first supported them in Arizona and Georgia in 2022. But they still need us.
We’re helping underwrite a team of well-trained paid canvassers in two strategic state Legislative districts in the Tucson area – the critical counties of Pima and Pinal are the primary focus of our Worker Power Fall GOTV team.
This is a strategic trifecta: supporting Harris, flipping a vulnerable Congressional seat (Ciscomani) and helping retain and flip legislative seats that could cost the Republicans their narrow majority in the State House. Worker Power has a goal of hiring 500 canvassers to knock on 1.3 million doors in AZ this cycle.
Our Arizona Candidates
– 2 Congressional candidates
– 4 State Legislative incumbents/challengers
– Maricopa County Recorder
U.S. Congress
Amish Shah. Shah is an emergency room physician and State Representative who is taking on perpetually vulnerable Republican Congressman David Schweikert. Schweikert retained his seat by only 3,000 votes in 2022. Shah is running on protecting Medicare, border security and reproductive freedom. Shah had to survive a primary in August, and needs the cash.
Kirsten Engel. This is a rematch between first term Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani and challenger Kirsten Engel. In 2022, he won by only 1.5% in an off-year election. Engel is currently ahead in fundraising, but insiders in AZ warn of an upcoming Republican money bomb.
Arizona State Legislature
- Republicans control the state Senate 16-14
- Republicans control the House 31-29.
- A Democratic flip will protect voting rights.
- The state Republican party is batshit crazy and in total disarray.
While there are any number of potential candidates to support, we’re targeting four candidates in Legislative Districts 16 and 17 (Tucson and Casa Grande), where the Worker Power team we’re helping support is canvassing.
Keith Seaman: Keith was a retired teacher and Legislator who was so outraged by Dobbs that he ran for a Republican state seat in 2022 and won. Barely. This is our only retention play.
Stacy Seaman: Stacy is Keith’s daughter, a school teacher running to flip a House Republican seat. The Seaman family is well known and respected in Pinal County (Casa Grande).
Kevin Volk: Kevin is a young Tucson native, former intern for Gabby Giffords and started a small business owner focused on building affordable housing. Another potential flip.
John Mclean: John is a retired CEO, running for Senate on reproductive rights and fiscal responsibility, against a dangerous Republican.
Maricopa County Recorder
Tim Stringham (former JAG officer)
The office of Maricopa County Recorder is arguably Arizona’s second most important election protection official. The Recorder oversees elections in Arizona’s most populous County, with over 60% of the state’s population. The Republican is a notorious election denier who refuses to debate the Democratic candidate we’re supporting.
AZ State Supreme Court & Protecting Abortion Rights
All seven justices were appointed by Republicans. Two of them (Bolick and King) are up for a ‘retention election.’ If they’re recalled, their replacement is appointed by the Democratic Governor (from a list supplied by a commission. So there is no challenger candidate to support. However, we found a group focused on the recall called “Protect Abortion Rights No Retention Bolick and King.” We did not have time to vet them to the extent that we usually do, but here’s their website for you to make up your own mind.
Who aren’t we supporting?
Ruben Gallego, who doesn’t need our money.
Jonathan Nez, who is Native American and well-known in the Native community, as he was the former President of the Navajo Nation and because his congressional race is a total long shot.
We’ll revisit other possible AZ legislative candidates later.
Whats at Stake? (besides everything!)
- 11 electoral votes for Harris
- 2 flipped US House seats
- Democratic majority in the AZ House instead of Republicans control
- Democratic majority in the AZ Senate instead of Republicans control
- a possible AZ democratic trifecta (governor, state House and state Senate)
Let’s do this!
BR
I’m in for $100 for each fundraiser. Who’s with me?
WaterGirl
We have a $25,000 external match for Four Directions AZ.
We have $2,000 Angel matches to get us started with each of the 4 pieces of Operation Blue Arizona.
To be Angel matched, tell us about your donation in the comments or by email to WaterGirl.
And tell us which one/s you are supporting so I know where to put your donation for matching.
Donations up to $100 per person (per thermometer) are Angel matched. (until we hit the $2,000 match for each thermometer)
Theoretically, if you gave $100 to each of the four thermometers, the full $400 would be matched.
WaterGirl
Sorry the post was so long, but there was so much information to share.
WaterGirl
Pulling this post for an hour since another post went up right after it.
edit: Back up now at 12:15!
Orange is the New Red
$100 in for Four Directions.
Maxim
$25 to each of the four thermometers.
WaterGirl
Thanks, you guys!
Mai Naem mobile
I kicked in $25 for each one. Thanks for putting in Stringham. I don’t think Nez is as a long shot as people think even though I recognize Engel is the better of the two to go for.
WaterGirl
@Mai Naem mobile: Hopefully Nez will get a boost from the Four Directions GOTV.
gkoutnik
$100 to Four Directions
way2blue
@WaterGirl:
$100 to Four Directions AZ. Thank you WaterGirl. Thank you, Four Directions.
dc
$20.00 to the Arizona candidates, I would have preferred being able to choose only the state legislature candidates.
Lumpy
@BR:
I also just donated $100 each, to all four fundraisers.
Thank you WaterGirl!
Mokum
I donated $100 each to the first three thermometers. Am in Europe so it is dinner time. After dinner maybe also a little something for the fourth thermometer.
Dmkingto
@BR: met your challenge. In for $100 to all 4 thermometers.
Thanks to Watergirl and everyone involved in these efforts
Sister Golden Bear
Put in $25 each for all four.
piratedan
@Mai Naem mobile: agree. I am hoping that Nez being in the race will spur even greater registrations, hence they’ve gotten some cash from me directly.
I sit just outside the Ciscomani/Engel district, but we get all of the ads here. Engel is running ads that show that she is capable of bipartisan solutions on immigration and running on the Biden/Harris economic profile. Mostly upbeat, solving problems. There are some dark money ads outing Ciscomani as a NatC supporter being on the board of a religious private school with a proposed agenda right outta project 2025. Ciscomani is running the same stuff as 2022, portraying Engel as an out of touch liberal and coupling that with the usual Immigration bogeyman tripe (excuse me, I’m being interrupted by the hordes crossing the border illegally right fucking now)
I am not as familiar with the local candidates, but I can describe the location that they are running in. This is the north Tucson suburbs, mostly genteel retirement areas (Saddlebrooke and Sun City) coupled with some farming/suburban communities that stretch towards Phoenix. Immigration has a duality in the desert… you have OMG OMG they’re all coming to kill us/take our jerbs/put taco trucks on every corner versus, why can’t I find anyone to help with landscaping/trades/customer service/healthcare…
Tucson is one of those rare places where you CAN actually find a taco truck on a LOT of corners.
I’ve signed up to help Worker Progress out here, unsure yet if I’ll be driving canvassers or doing office work, but we’re in touch.
WaterGirl
@piratedan: Glad to hear it! When they sent you email they used my real name instead of WaterGirl, but I assumed that you would figure it out
There are opportunities for any of you guys in the area to help out, just speak up and I’ll get Worker Power in touch with you.
SuzieC
$25. each to Four Directions and Worker Power. Maybe will get to the candidates later.
WaterGirl
To share the big picture, we are basically aiming for:
Hopefully, there’s something for everyone in there, for anyone who wants to donate.
You will recall that the candidate thermometer will split your donations equally amount all 7, unless you state otherwise.
To change the split, or just support a single one of them. click Customize Amounts before you enter your dollar amount.
dc
Will Balloon Juice be doing anymore fundraising for our Montana group? I hope getting Tester back in the Senate is not considered a lost cause. We need him.
WaterGirl
@dc: We need every single senate seat – it would be madness to shrug and say “oh well”, when all the big things we want require the House, the Senate, and the White House.
So that’s a “no, we are not giving up on Tester.”
I made it very clear to Four Directions that we are here for FLASH fundraising for Montana – or any of the key states – if it looks like they can do more on the ground if they have more $$.
They know where to find me :-) and we do check in every couple of weeks or so, at least.
Warren Senders
Currently in for 150, and will try to add more soon. Thanks as always to the BJ stalwarts for organizing these fundraisers!
WaterGirl
@Warren Senders: Which thermometer/s got your $150?
WaterGirl
@dc: Oh, you can!
I’ve added a screen capture below of the right-hand side of the page you see if you click the candidates thermometer.
See where it says “Customize Amounts” in blue toward the top of the page? Click that, and then you can choose how much each one gets, if anything.
Do that before you enter your donation amount.
Once you click on Customize Amounts, you will get this screen:
Let me know if you have questions about how to do that.
frosty
I’ll bet they do!
ETA Wednesday is Payday and I’ll see what I can do to heat up the thermometers.
Hungry Joe
In for one hundred smackers to Four Directions.
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: I just changed the candidate order to match the order of the info on the left side of the page.
So now the US House races are one after another, followed by the statehouse races, with the Maricopa County Recorder bringing up the rear
I didn’t mention it up top, but the two candidates named Seaman are father and daughter! One is running for the House, the other for the Senate.
R-Jud
This community is so inspiring. I picked the worst year to buy a house. I want to give to all these GOTV efforts, but every penny is going toward the deposit and the legal stuff right now. Hopefully all will be done in three weeks 🤞
RandyG
John McLean (note the spelling) is our candidate for the State Senate in LD 17 (Legislative District) running against former state senator Vince Leach, who defeated Justine Wadsack in the Republican primary. (Wadsack had defeated Leach in the primary the previous time and then went on to win in the general. Wadsack is indeed a kook, but Leach is every bit as dangerous.)
piratedan
@RandyG: Randy, please feel free to correct anything I may have said about your district up above. I’m glad that Wadsack got the boot but that doesn’t mean that Leach is any better, just quieter about it.
BR
Scientific American (!) endorses Harris:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vote-for-kamala-harris-to-support-science-health-and-the-environment/
RandyG
@piratedan: I don’t go much for commercial television, so I haven’t seen many ads, and surprisingly very few mailers as well. All the local races in the Tucson area, which leans Dem in the metro area, strong Rep in the outlying, are going to be tight (CD6 and LD17, which both split Tucson metro).
Although Nez has little chance to win in CD2, if he can ramp up the vote in his district, that will help in other overlapping contests, notably LD17.
WaterGirl
@RandyG: Thank you for the correction on the McLean! I fixed it in the post and on ActBlue, so I think I’ve gotten it everywhere, but please let me know if I missed anywhere.
WaterGirl
@BR: Good news! The powers that be are starting to step up.
WaterGirl
@RandyG:
We supported a candidate in
AZNEVADA for the House (I can’t recall her name) not because we thought she would win, although I hoped that she might somehow pull it out, but because Four Directions said the native voters were very excited about her, and win or lose for her House race, it would boost everyone.My thinking this time around is that he is already well known because of his former position, so it seems like that is covered.
Agree? Disagree? No opinion?
edited to correct the state from AZ to NV.
TBone
@BR: 💙 just posted that in below thread, was looking for you to share with. Glad to see you beat me to it! What great news!
BR
New short Tim Walz video that the campaign posted where he was talking to volunteers (I think?) and the mic stops working and he keeps going:
https://www.tiktok.com/@timwalz/video/7415318337032457518
Coyoteville
I just donated $100 to Four Directions.
Coyoteville
WaterGirl
@Coyoteville: Thank you!
There go two miscreants
In for $100 to each thermometer.
WaterGirl
@There go two miscreants: Thank you so much!
AnthroBabe
Here’s hoping Nez is NOT a long shot. He had a one man debate on local TV because Crane didn’t show up. I know our redistricting really did not help in 2022. We have Prescott in our district – WHY they are not high country…argh. So conservative, too. We need Eli Crane out of Washington D.C. (and Wendy Rogers out of PHX, for that matter)
rockstar
$25 for each one, thanks WaterGirl!!!
piratedan
@AnthroBabe: it’s a weird district, includes the Rich Rim communities, Prescott and almost all of the Northern Rez territories, and includes Flagstaff as well. Fair bit of mormon small towns as well. Almost like a cordon around Phoenix.
WaterGirl
Seeing a lot of love for Nez in this thread. I take it you guys all live in AZ and are familiar with him?
piratedan
@WaterGirl: usually don’t see former tribal chiefs running for office. Last native candidate that I remember seeing was Mary Jo Kitla, who lost out in that same district about 15-20 years ago in the primary, she used to be a reporter in Tucson.
With the GOP in disarray (Crane didn’t show up for his debate) and the push to get the Reservations registered and the odiousness of the GOP slate, if this IS a wave election, CD-2 could go.
BlueGuitarist
Justin Heap, R candidate for Maricopa Recorder eat the incumbent, Steve Richer, in the primary, because Richer said Maricopa elections were fair.
Heap wanted Arizona to do its own census and count only citizens for redistricting.
Whe.n a racist Mississippi representative advocated that in the US House debate on the 1940 census, a New York representative explained that’s unconstitutional (14th Amendment) and that only one country had based apportionment on citizens rather than persons: Nazi Germany.
Dem candidate Tim Stringham has been endorsed by (among others) Vote Vets and worker power (saw the excellent worker power logo on his website).
BlueGuitarist
@WaterGirl:
NV candidate was Mercedes Krause.
She only raised about $50k in 22.
Nez has raised over $1 million.
WaterGirl
@BlueGuitarist: She did help bring out the native vote, though, and some elections went our way in NV without a ton of wiggle room, so I think that was money well spent.
Gloria DryGarden
@BR: scientific American has a circulation of 500,000. This is so good. There appears to also be an app, so perhaps there are more readers there, and at libraries..
yay
Gloria DryGarden
@WaterGirl: is anything going on to boost the congressional vote in ne Colorado? I’ve not found out how much organizing they’re doing, but the democrat candidate running against Boebert is a strong effective person. Some say even in R+6 etc, a dem can win if people dislike the republican candidate. I do think there’s some distaste for ms Boebert
WaterGirl
@Gloria DryGarden: I am not aware of whatever organizing is going on in Colorado. And Boebert’s opponent is surely swimming in money, so our money would be like salt in the ocean.
My focus is more on the swing states and the close candidates where a boost could make the difference between the win and a loss.
The return of Mo Salad
Four Directions and Worker Power each got $100.
Avalie
Donated $25 to each of the four thermometers! Watergirl–you are doing some fine work here!!
WaterGirl
@The return of Mo Salad: Got it! Thank you.
WaterGirl
@Avalie: Thank you so much!
Temp Decloaked Lurker
$50 for 4 Directions, $100 for the AZ candidates, split equally (14.28).