Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, how is it only Tuesday? It was another very, very, very long day here. Nothing bad, just very long. So I’m going to just run through the basics.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy has announced that Britain will not go it alone in providing Ukraine authorization to use long range weapons against Russian targets in Russia.

It’s like watching a bully beat someone to death while the crowd stands by holding bats, but no one steps in. No one hands over a bat because the bully warns, ‘Help them, and you’re next.’ pic.twitter.com/BpVlWOeov3

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2024

From The Times of London:

Britain will not allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets in Russia without the agreement of the United States.

President Zelensky pleaded for the UK and US to overcome their “fear” and show “decisiveness” over the issue.

Five former defence secretaries and an ex-prime minister have urged Sir Keir Starmer to go ahead unilaterally. They have warned that delays will only serve to embolden President Putin.

However, The Times has been told that the UK will not “go it alone” because US guidance systems were seen as crucial to ensuring the missiles hit their targets.

The government believes the US is still likely to give the green light at the UN general assembly in New York, although there are splits within President Biden’s administration.

David Lammy, the foreign secretary, told Laura Kuenssberg on BBC1 that there needed to be a “shared strategy” among western allies.

He said: “It’s important that as allies supporting Ukraine, we have a shared strategy to win going forward. Now we’ve been discussing this with the United States and with other key allies, but of course, we head to the UN general assembly, where we will all meet with Zelensky in just under 12 days’ time.”

He said that “no war is won with any one weapon”, but added: “It’s important that we support the Ukrainians to continue to repel Russia in the Black Sea, it’s important that they can deal with the huge challenges in the air that are being mounted by Russia and of course that we support them — and we have — with training of their own men and women on the front line. We want to put Ukraine in the strongest position going forward.”

Zelensky said on Sunday: “The world must help us defend ourselves against Russian military aircraft and the dozens of guided aerial bombs that claim Ukrainian lives every day.

“This terror can be stopped. But to stop it, the fear of making strong, objectively necessary decisions must be overcome. Only decisiveness can bring a just end to this war. It is decisiveness that most effectively protects against terror.”

More at the link.

Here’s the results of the moral cowardice and strategic malpractice:

On a day meant to honor Ukraine’s State Emergency Service, russia attacked Kharkiv with aerial bombs, injuring four rescuers, with three in critical condition, along with three civilians. An assault on those who save lives is an assault on the values that unite us as human beings pic.twitter.com/HU14AoiP99

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) September 17, 2024

In Novohrodivka, northwest of Donetsk, the Russians also executed a Ukrainian Soldier with a sword to the heart. His hands were tied and the Russians tried to photoshop the ropes out of the pictures they’ve posted on social media. I’ve seen the imagery and footage, you don’t need to go looking for it.

The Kyiv Post has the details:

Editor’s note: The story has been updated with information from the Prosecutor General’s Office on the location of the alleged killing of a Ukrainian soldier.

Ukraine’s Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on Sept. 17 that he had appealed to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the United Nations in response to a photo that allegedly shows the execution of a Ukrainian prisoner of war (POW) by Russia.

On the morning of Sept. 17, a photo of an apparently executed Ukrainian soldier with a sword in his chest and the inscription “For Kursk” appeared on social media. Remnants of gray tape are visible on the soldier’s hand.

The photo appears to show a bloodied body lying on the road against the backdrop of damaged vehicles and a house with broken windows. The exact location is unclear.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the photo.

“The level of barbarism and bloodthirstiness is impossible to comprehend,” Lubinets wrote on his Telegram channel. The ombudsman stressed that such actions are a flagrant violation of the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Later in the day, the Prosecutor General’s Office said that the alleged execution of a   Ukrainian soldier took place in the town of Novohrodivka in Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian authorities have not yet established the time when the alleged execution took place.

The investigation is ongoing to establish the circumstances and identify the people responsible for the crime. The pre-trial investigation is conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) investigators in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, according to the Prosecutor General’s Office.

More at the link.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

A Good, Strong Content of the Military Package for Our Victory Plan Has Been Prepared – Address by the President

17 September 2024 – 19:26

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day. First – a meeting on the military component of our Victory Plan for Ukraine. I worked together with the military command. A good, strong content of the military package for our Victory Plan has been prepared – the very things that can significantly strengthen Ukraine in accordance with the Victory Plan.

Second – I held a meeting on our F-16 fleet. Together with the Air Force Command. There is a clear vision of the steps – how to increase the number of combat aircraft in Ukraine and speed up our pilot training. All the tasks for the Air Force of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine have been defined.

Together with the Prime Minister of Ukraine, we heard new strategies for the work of two state institutions – the Ministry for Communities and Territories Development and the Ministry of Veterans Affairs. Deputy Prime Minister Kuleba and Minister Kalmykova reported with their teams. The strategies are ambitious, but the most important thing is that people really feel the results of the work of the Ministries and the Government in general. We also had a separate discussion with Denys Shmyhal on energy and other key issues.

There were reports on the situation in Sumy and the region. After the Russian strikes on energy facilities, there are blackouts. The city of Sumy, districts of the region. Repair crews are currently working. A coordination center has been set up. I thank everyone involved in the restoration work – power engineers, regional authorities, local authorities, and all State Emergency Service employees.

And one more thing.

Today is Rescuer’s Day in Ukraine. The day of all our people who work exclusively to save the lives of others. Today I thanked the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, each and every one of those who has been helping. I also presented them with state awards. And now I want to personally thank those rescuers who have been particularly outstanding now, these very days. This is Yevhenii Khorunzhyi – a rescuer from the Kharkiv region, a Sergeant, who has been working in the SES for 5 years and is constantly involved in eliminating the consequences of Russian strikes. This is Oleksandr Ahudov – a Captain of the Civil Defense Service, who has been working in the rescue service for 13 years in the Donetsk region. Volodymyr Morozov – a Master Sergeant from the Sumy region. Last night he took part in the elimination of the consequences of the Russian strike on Konotop and has always been active in protecting people. Andrii Zhytkov – Master Sergeant, Donetsk region. He works in the most dangerous frontline areas, helps evacuate people, and rescues them after strikes. Volodymyr Piskun – Master Sergeant, Kherson region. He has been with the SES for 14 years, a truly professional person. And the sappers of the SES of Ukraine – these are Oleh Filippov, Mykola Lintsov and Oleksandr Humenchak. Very efficient guys. I thank you and all your colleagues!

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine

Minister @rustem_umerov had a weekly call with US @SecDef Lloyd Austin.
🇺🇦🇺🇸 https://t.co/E4f4L7GTeV

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

Ukrainian rescuers are risking their lives to help others.
They save human lives and mitigate the consequences of russian attacks, fires and floods.

Today, Ukraine celebrate their professional holiday. @SESU_UA, thank you for your invaluable service.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/ljdBZRyfvg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

NATO:

‼️ NATO Secretary General on long-range strikes against Russia: Biggest risk for Europe is Russian victory https://t.co/MgzSkBEEd7

— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) September 16, 2024

From Ukrainska Pravda:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the decision to allow Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory will depend on individual allies. He also stressed that there are always risks in war, but the biggest risk for Europe is a Russian victory in Ukraine.

Source: European Pravda citing Stoltenberg’s words in an interview with LBC

Details: The soon-to-be outgoing NATO secretary general welcomed the public debate in recent days over the possible permission for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western long-range weapons.

Quote: “It’s for the individual allies to make these decisions, but it’s important that we consult closely on these issues as we do.”

Details: Commenting on the concerns of some allies about the risk of escalation of the war in Ukraine, Stoltenberg reminded that it is about “a full-scale war in Europe launched by Moscow”.

“There are no risk-free options in the war. But I continue to believe that the biggest risk for us will be if [Russian leader] Putin wins in Ukraine,” the secretary general stressed.

Ukraine is seeking to use long-range missiles to hit Russian air bases and military targets involved in attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Background:

• Earlier, Russian leader Vladimir Putin warned that allowing Kyiv to carry out long-range strikes would “mean that NATO countries, the United States and European countries are at war with Russia”.
• Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is convinced that allies should step up support for Kyiv despite Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s threats, as he does nothing despite his words.

Remember this meme @elonmusk posted? Apparently it was created by someone named Sofiya, who worked for a Russian government agency sanctioned by the US and aimed at spreading propaganda in the West. @cxemu got access to a massive data leak and uncovered some interesting details. pic.twitter.com/1NnmPMcsWe

— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) September 17, 2024

The original reporting is at Radio Svoboda and is not in English. Here’s a rundown in English:

Pro-Russia narratives, memes, “augmented reality and fakes registry”: how the Kremlin-hired disinformation agency works

Thread🧵

2/11 “Schemes” @MaksymSavchuk @AnnaMyroniuk gained access to thousands of leaked documents from the Russian “Social Design Agency” or “SDA”, an organization sanctioned by the EU and the US, and, according to American intelligence, supervised by the Putin Administration. 

3/11 The leaked internal files of the “Social Design Agency” were obtained by the German media @SZ, @ndr and @WDR, and the Estonian news site @DelfiEE, which then shared them with a dozen European media outlets, including “Schemes.” 

4/11 As part of the #FactoryofFakes project, “Schemes” gained access to the smallest details of the Russian disinformation operations planning: minutes of “SDA” meetings and reports on fake dissemination.

5/11 The obtained documents show that “SDA” uses disinformation to discredit Ukraine, its top officials and citizens, as well as the leaders of Western countries who support it while promoting the interests of Russia and European politicians who defend them. 

6/11 For example, “SDA” tried to influence the June 2024 elections to the European Parliament to bring to power more representatives of right-wing forces who Russian political technologists expected to support Russia and oppose Western aid to Ukraine.

7/11 This disinformation operation included, among other things, a “comprehensive counter-campaign” against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

8/11 The company also spread numerous fakes about Ukrainians to Western audiences. One example is that Ukrainians join ISIS while seeking refuge in Europe or that Ukrainians traffick children evacuated from the country’s frontline to the EU.

9/11 The “SDA” also tried to influence the Ukrainians themselves. Russian political technologists used sensitive topics such as mobilization, battlefield casualties, restrictions on freedom of speech effective during martial law, drying up Western aid, and internal corruption.

10/11 Russian disinformation specialists from “SDA” also used President Zelenskiy’s tense relations with his predecessor Petro Poroshenko, ex-Armed Forces chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, and Kyiv mayor Vitali Klychko to divide Ukrainians.

11/11 Who leads the “SDA” disinformation operations and what fakes does the company spread for the Kremlin? Read more about it in the newest investigation by “Schemes”

Темники, меми, «реєстр фейків та допреальності». Як працює агенція-підрядник Кремля із дезінформації«Агенція соціального дизайну» створює та поширює фейки для дискредитації України, її найвищого керівництва та громадян, та просуває інтереси Росіїhttps://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/skhemy-kreml-dezinformatsiya-asd-hambashydze/33121898.html

In a similar vein, Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center has released a new assessment of Russian interference in the 2024 elections.

Russia and Iran have both undertaken cyber influence operations headed into the 2024 presidential election. In our last report, published on August 8, we detailed how Iranian cyber-enabled influence operations sought to undermine the Republican campaign through targeted hack-and-leak operations, covert social media personas, and imposter US news sites. In the past two months, Microsoft has observed a notable shift in Russian influence operations tactics reflecting the changing U.S. political environment. Specifically, we have observed Russia pivot towards targeting the Harris-Walz campaign, with actors disseminating fabricated videos designed to sow discord and spread disinformation about the new Democratic nominee Vice President Harris.  

We discuss this activity in a new report by the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) released today. This update follows other reports we have released around activity by actors advancing the geopolitical goals of Iran and China.   

The shift to focusing on the Harris-Walz campaign reflects a strategic move by Russian actors aimed at exploiting any perceived vulnerabilities in the new candidates. Initially, Russian influence operations struggled to evolve their efforts following President Biden’s departure from the 2024 US presidential race. However, in late August and September, we observed two Russian actors MTAC tracks closely — previously reported as Storm-1516 and Storm-1679 — using videos designed to discredit Harris and stoke controversy around her campaign. Specifically:  

• Storm-1516, identified by news reports as a Kremlin-aligned troll farm, produced and disseminated two inauthentic videos, each generating millions of views. One video depicted an attack by alleged Harris supporters on a supposed Trump rally attendee, while another used an on-screen actor to fabricate false claims about Harris’s involvement in a hit-and-run accident. This second video was laundered through a website masquerading as a local San Francisco media outlet — which was only created days beforehand. 

• Storm-1679, a newer group reportedly aligned with the Kremlin, pivoted its focus from producing content about the 2024 Paris Olympic Games to publishing false videos discrediting Vice President Harris. One of the videos, which was shared on X shortly after it was published to Telegram, depicted a fake New York City billboard advancing false claims about Harris’ policies. The X post received more than 100,000 views in the four hours after it was published on Telegram. 

As we inch closer to the election, we should expect Russian actors to continue to use cyber proxies and hacktivist groups to amplify their messages through media websites and social channels geared to spread divisive political content, staged videos, and AI-enhanced propaganda. The actions taken by the US government on September 4 mark an important and impactful step to protect against foreign influence targeting the upcoming US presidential election, and Microsoft suspended more than 20 active Microsoft email accounts created by the now sanctioned government-funded communications agency ANO Dialog. However, we have also observed actors attempting to create new infrastructure, with one threat actor already having moved media outlets from seized websites to new ones.  

Russia and Iran are not the only nation-states using influence operations to influence the election. A Chinese-linked influence actor Microsoft tracks as Storm-1852 successfully pivoted to short-form video content that criticizes the Biden administration and Harris campaign before some of its assets disappeared from social media following reports of its activity. While most Storm-1852 personas masquerade as conservative US voters voting for Trump, a handful of accounts also create anti-Trump content and use political slogans and hashtags associated with American progressive politics.  

Collectively, these three nation states — Iran, China and Russia — demonstrate the complexities of foreign interference that the US faces, and the need for the public to remain vigilant against these evolving threats. MTAC will continue to monitor this activity, and provide updates so voters, government institutions, candidates, parties, and others can be aware of influence campaigns and more resilient against foreign interference in democratic processes. As we’ve said before, our goal in releasing these reports is to promote education and protect institutions from any form of foreign interference. Microsoft will not endorse a candidate or political party.

Pokrovsk:

The Vampire heavy drone vs. russian targets in the Pokrovsk direction.
That’s why they call it “Baba Yaga”—a horrifying character from the folklore.

📹: 110th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/sF9srsHWq0

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024

As Russian forces continue their advance in the Pokrovsk front, long-standing systemic issues within the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to aid Russians with that. Based on numerous conversations with sergeants, as well as junior, and senior officers in command positions in the Donbas region, I am writing this post the goal of highlighting the most common and consistent problems mentioned by people on the ground, per their request. Unfortunately, the higher command remains largely unresponsive to these concerns when raised internally.

1. Disconnect in Command and Combat Readiness

There is an apparent disconnect between higher command assessment and the actual combat readiness of units. In many cases, units with limited operational capacity are tasked with responsibilities far beyond their capabilities. For example, newly formed brigades with little battlefield experience are assigned to defend critical and high-risk areas of the frontline, where Russian forces have massed sufficient strength for a potential breakthrough. At the same time, more experienced and better-equipped brigades are stationed in less dangerous sectors.

This imbalance has allowed Russian forces to pinpoint weak spots along the frontline and exploit them, especially during unit rotations – something that they can track easily due to their ISR capabilities. The Ukrainian command, in turn, often scrambles to reallocate battalions from other areas to stabilize vulnerable areas that appeared from miscalculations.
While such actions can help to stabilize the line and even prevent a breakthrough, it leaves other parts of the frontline exposed, perpetuating a cycle of vulnerability.

For context, what may appear to higher-ups as “a company with 60% of its personnel ready for deployment” may, in reality, be a fatigued unit with multiple soldiers in their 40s and 50s or people with previous injuries and chronic health problems, as well as newly arrived recruits with minimal training. The true combat readiness may be closer to 30-40%, but on paper, commanders see a combat-ready unit

2. The Lack of Truth and Realistic Reporting

The previously discussed disconnect raises the question: Why don’t officers report their unit’s inability to perform certain missions? The answer is simple: Brigade commanders and senior officers are ultimately responsible for the combat and mobilization readiness of their units per regulations. Admitting that a unit cannot perform a task is often seen as a failure of brigade leadership. As a result, the command’s solution is simple: if a commander cannot ensure the unit’s readiness, someone else will be appointed to do so. But the situation with resources or combat readiness of unit doesn’t improve – you just put a person who is going to push under-resourced and under-prepared units to complete a task they are not equipped to handle, leading to failed operations, abandoned positions, failed defenses, and unnecessary casualties – something that people can witness themselves by looking at the Deep State map.

3. Systematic Problems with Recruitment and Training

The quality and quantity of new recruits continue to fall short of expectations. Although some training centers have made improvements, overall readiness remains alarmingly insufficient. Many newly arrived soldiers are not prepared for the realities of frontline combat, forcing brigades to develop and implement their own internal training programs. The situation demands systemic reforms, including the creation of a structure that leverages the expertise of veterans or those recovering from injuries to train and mentor incoming recruits.

4. Little to no Accountability

Three years into the war, Ukraine has yet to fully implement an After Action Review (AAR) process, which hasn’t been implemented except in cases where individual officers took the initiative. The tactical level is the highest level where it’s used.

The blame for operational failures often falls on mid-level officers, and in some cases, even soldiers on the ground. Even in rare cases, after public scandals, when generals are removed from their posts following catastrophic failures, they are typically reassigned to other command positions rather than being held accountable, leaving little room for new, younger, and more innovative officers to rise through the ranks.

This inability to change with essentially a petrified soviet hierarchy within Ukraine’s military leadership continues to generate previously mentioned problems.

Epilogue

Ultimately, these problems are rooted in systemic failures at the top. Poor decision-making, inefficient resource allocation, inadequate recruitment and training programs, and a fundamental lack of understanding of the conditions on the ground continue to plague the AFU. These are not the failures of soldiers or officers who are risking their lives daily on the ground, and who are frequently blamed by command for failures. These are the consequences of people incapable of either admitting the problem or building a plan to address these problems.

The toll of these problems is paid by those on the frontlines, who sacrifice their lives and health to protect their families and their country.

Yes, it’s times worse on the Russian side. The problem is that they have resources to cover these setbacks.

Ukraine doesn’t have such resources, nor we can expect the West to provide enough indefinitely.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) September 17, 2024

But wait, there’s more…

Marjorie Taylor Greene now proven to have promoted a completely fraudulent narrative written in Moscow in 2023.

Will there be consequences ? https://t.co/RAiSM2dWAh pic.twitter.com/yoMAwPk22H

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 17, 2024

Another item in the leaked documents cites a member of Putin’s presidential admin amazed that Americans believed their campaign about Ukrainian child organs being harvested.

This narrative was intended merely as a counter to Putin’s indictment for child abduction by the ICC but… https://t.co/Gfy3vlK17i pic.twitter.com/GU5phShBat

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 17, 2024

Another item in the leaked documents cites a member of Putin’s presidential admin amazed that Americans believed their campaign about Ukrainian child organs being harvested.

This narrative was intended merely as a counter to Putin’s indictment for child abduction by the ICC but then actually pushed by US politicians like Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Kharkiv:

A few thoughts on the fear of escalation while in Kharkiv: Russia is fueling the fear, building their entire strategy on threats and manipulation. This can be stopped—let Ukraine strike back pic.twitter.com/xOGOfekuPB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 17, 2024

Someday, I hope we will be able to sleep the entire night without waking up every 20 minutes to check where russian deadly drones are heading😒
No big news outlets report it, but they attack Ukraine every single night.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 18, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Start your day with a sincere smile and share it with your friend.

📷: 127th TDF Brigade pic.twitter.com/YjdPAnKviW

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 17, 2024

Happy holiday to @PatronDsns and all Ukraine’s emergency workers @SESU_UA . Your bravery, professionalism and dedication to service is an inspiration to us all. З днем рятівника! pic.twitter.com/6LKZlKs0Dh

— Martin Harris (@MartinHarrisOBE) September 17, 2024

Open thread!