Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Second rate reporter says what?

Biden: Oh no. We’ve upset Big Pharma again.

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

No Justins, No Peace

“Let’s not pretend [Trump] wants to engage in high-minded discourse.”

Let there be snark.

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Republicans in disarray!

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

The willow is too close to the house.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 942: The Butcher’s Bill in Kharkiv & Zaporizhzhia Under the Glide Bomb

War for Ukraine Day 942: The Butcher’s Bill in Kharkiv & Zaporizhzhia Under the Glide Bomb

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is doing very well. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Right now the air raid alert maps are mostly quiet.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from the overnight Russian strikes on Kharkiv:

Last night, Russia struck Kharkiv again, this time with aerial bombs targeting an ordinary residential building. As a result, 21 people were injured, including an 8-year-old child and two 17-year-old teenagers. Sixty residents were evacuated from the building. All are receiving the necessary assistance.

Throughout the week, the enemy has used over 900 guided aerial bombs, around 400 “Shahed” drones, and nearly 30 missiles of various types.

We need to strengthen our capabilities to better protect lives and ensure safety. Ukraine needs full long-range capabilities, and we are working to convince our partners of this. We will continue these discussions next week.

Russia is running up a new tab in Zaporizhzhia:

Now we wait to see how much damage, how many Ukrainians the Russian kill and wound in this attack.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

This Fall Will Determine What Comes Next in This War – Address by the President

22 September 2024 – 22:07

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We are starting our visit to the United States – now we are flying to Pennsylvania. This visit is special. Then, we are heading to New York and Washington. This fall will determine what comes next in this war. Together with our partners, we can strengthen our positions as needed for our victory – our shared victory – for a truly just peace.

In the United States, Ukraine will present its Plan for Victory, and the U.S. President will be the first to see it in full. Of course, I will also present the Plan for Victory to all leaders of partner countries who, like President Biden, are world leaders and can become leaders of peace by helping us with the Plan for Victory. We will also present it to Congress – to both parties and both U.S. presidential candidates. America has all the necessary power to ensure what we need most together with Ukraine, our allies and partners. We need peace, exactly as envisioned by the Peace Formula. Exactly as envisioned by the UN Charter. We are doing everything for this.

Weapons to defend our independence and our people. Diplomacy to consolidate partners and force Russia into peace. And justice so that Russia is held accountable for this war and feels its consequences.

And gratitude – our gratitude to everyone who is helping. I thank every nation and every leader who has felt that this war, Russia’s war against Ukraine, is about much more than just the fate of our Ukrainian people. I thank the United States, our leading supporter, and every nation that has shown independence and leadership in helping us protect people and prevent Russia from expanding this war. When Ukraine succeeds in defending itself, every other democratic nation will benefit from this.

It is now being determined what the legacy of the current generation of state leaders, those in the highest offices, will be. In the coming days, we are going to meet with the leaders of the Global South, G7, Europe, and international organizations – with many people who help consolidate the world. There will be very important meetings with representatives of the United States. True peace and a true victory for Ukraine and international law is what we need.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Relatives and friends of the fallen Defenders gather near the graves at the Lychakiv Military Cemetery in Lviv very often. Some of them come right after dawn to drink the first morning coffee in the company of their deceased husbands, sons or brothers.

They have found new friends, soul mates here, because they understand each other with a half-word.

“Those with whom I was friends before the tragedy do not understand me. And they won’t be able to understand me because they haven’t experienced what I have,” Olena, whose husband died at the front in 2023 says.

They are all united by indescribable pain. But found support, joy, and the desire to continue living and fighting.

📹: Hromadske

Militarnyi has the details:

Ukraine has received a verbal agreement from its Western partners to fund the missile program developed by the Ministry of Defense.

Rustem Umierov, Minister of Defense of Ukraine, announced this in an interview with the Rada TV channel.

According to him, Western partners have already verbally agreed to fund it, as this issue is one of the highest priorities.

Currently, the Ministry of Defense has assumed full responsibility for the development of products under this program to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with long-range weapons.

“Since this year, the Ministry of Defense has been taking the lead in this issue, we have developed a missile program,” Umierov said.

The development of missile systems is a strategically important area for Ukraine, as products of this type should be independent, with minimal use of foreign components.

“It is quite powerful, we have already exchanged with our partners and we are waiting to see how much of the capacity we can build missiles and drones they will support. But they have already given us a verbal agreement that they will finance this,” the Defense Minister added.

In July 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the media that Ukraine had tested an Ukrainian-made ballistic missile.

Additionally, the Minister reported that Ukraine’s missile program will closely cooperate with the drone program being implemented in Ukraine.

More at the link.

The EU:

From The Financial Times:

The EU’s first defence commissioner wants to force countries to stockpile minimum levels of ammunition and other supplies, saying it is the best way to scale up the bloc’s undersized arms industry to ready it for war.

Andrius Kubilius, who will take the job this year if the European parliament approves, said the EU must prepare for Russian attack within a few years.

He compared his plan to similar arrangements for natural gas, under which countries must keep reserves and share them with neighbours in need.

“Why do we not have some kind of criteria called military security to keep in storage such and such an amount of artillery shells and some other products . . . let’s say powder [explosives]?

“You bring added value to the security of member states but in addition, you are creating permanent demand for production, which is the biggest issue for the defence industry. They lack stable long-term orders for production.”

The EU has tried to boost weapons output after Ukraine was forced to ration shells and missiles in its effort to push back Russian offensives.

Finland, Russia’s neighbour, is one of the few member states with large reserves of weaponry while media reports in Germany in 2022 said its army would run out of ammunition after two days of fighting.

Kubilius said he had no wish to duplicate the role of Nato. Officials at the US-dominated alliance have criticised the EU’s alternative set of equipment standards and procurement efforts.

In March, the EU allocated €500mn under the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) to boost output capacity to 2mn shells annually by the end of 2025.

Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister, said that was an improvement on the 300,000 annual limit when Russia attacked Kyiv in 2022. But more is needed, he said. “If I’m correct, we’re still behind the Russians.”

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc needs to spend €500bn to make up the shortfall in defence spending since the end of the cold war in the 1990s.

She has given Kubilius 100 days after taking office to produce a white paper on defence strategy. It should include a European air shield, which would cost hundreds of billions of euros, and a cyber defence system, she said.

Kubilius wants EU member states to borrow the money for this jointly, an idea opposed for now by net budget contributors Germany and the Netherlands.

He will also sketch out other projects of common interest that would be eligible for EU funding, including ways of incentivising defence industry companies to work together across borders.

The tendency of various European governments to favour their own national champions has led to a proliferation of different models of tanks, artillery pieces and fighting vehicles, denting efficiency.

More at the link.

For you Gepard SPAAG enthusiasts:

Vuhledar:

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv: residents of a damaged building tell about the moment of the strike

According to Oleg Syniehubov, the head of the Regional Civil-Military Administration, residential buildings of 16 and 9 floors were destroyed by the GBU strike, and 7 other buildings were damaged. More than 1200 windows were smashed.

📹- radio svoboda

Chasiv Yar:

The Kerch straits:

LTG (ret) Hodges as quoted in al Jazeera:

A United States general told Al Jazeera that Ukraine is likely to launch a major new campaign to win back Crimea this year and says Washington should fully support it.

“We could be 100 percent clear to the Ukrainians and the Russians that we are 100 percent in favour of them retaking Crimea however they do it,” General Ben Hodges said.

He added: “Crimea … is sovereign Ukraine, and there will be no US tapping the brakes if they take down that Kerch Bridge – which I do predict is going to happen this year.”

Hodges commanded US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and was head of US forces in Europe before retiring.

Russia recently sank ships on either side of the bridge’s main span to protect its stanchions against Ukraine’s naval drones. Hodges believes Ukraine is now coming in for the final kill.

“The Russians know how vulnerable that bridge is, so they’ve put a lot of effort into air defence. They’ve sunk ferries along both sides to protect against these unmanned systems,” Hodges said.

“You’re not going to take it out with two or three Storm Shadows or ATACMS or something like that,” he said, referring to the British missiles with a 250km (155-mile) range and the US Army Tactical Missile Systems with a 300km (185-mile) range, which Ukraine has.

“You’re going to need an enormous amount of explosives, so this is going to be an operation with several different phases and aspects.

“It’s not going to be, ‘We didn’t get it this week. Let’s try again next week’. It’s going to be quite an operation,” Hodges added.

Politics may determine the timing.

“I think they’ll do it at a time when it gets literally the biggest bang but also contributes the most to whatever else is going on,” Hodges said.

Not everyone agrees that a Ukrainian operation against the Kerch Bridge is imminent.

“One of the reasons they’re leaving it is … they need to leave a path for the Russians to evacuate. They’re positioning themselves for that,” said Colonel Demetries Andrew Grimes, a special forces commander who was one of the first US officers to go to Ukraine after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea.

He told Al Jazeera the timing of a Kerch Bridge operation would depend on whether Kyiv believes a majority of the population in Crimea would support a return of Ukrainian control.

“If [Ukraine’s armed forces] make the move and masses of Russians start leaving, then that’s a psychological victory. It’ll demonstrate that the Russian civilians don’t have faith in the Russian military protecting them and maintaining control of Crimea,” Grimes said.

That would place Russia in a dilemma – whether to force more military supplies in or allow waves of Russian speakers to leave.

“If you have a massive wave of people that are trying to leave, it’s going to be difficult for the Russians to try to bring in more supplies of weaponry.”

More at the link.

All of the Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants:

Someone please teach the new Ukrainian Foreign Minister how to thread his tweets!

The Toropets ammo dump:

According to the head of the Estonian Defence Forces intelligence centre, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the ammunition, which had not yet been stored indoors, was delivered to the depot by train just before the attack was launched. After it, the ammunition in the yard detonated along with the bunkers and depots.

‘There were 30,000 tonnes of explosive objects or 750,000 rounds of ammunition that were detonated. On average, the RF released 10,000 shells a week. So this ammunition supply was intended for two or three months. Russia has suffered ammunition losses as a result of this attack, and we will see the impact of these losses on the front in the coming weeks,’ said Kiviselg (https://news.err.ee/1609466482/edf-colonel-russia-s-naval-training-exercise-was-smaller-than-announced).

And the Tikhoretsk ammo dump:

Archangelsk Oblast:

Here’s the full text of the first quoted tweet:

My thanks to @MT_Anderson for providing this Planet Labs imagery and allowing me to publish it with comments.

As is readily apparent, the RS-28 Sarmat test was a complete failure. The missile detonated in the silo leaving a massive crater and destroying the test site. The Sarmat is a liquid fueled missile so this accident could have occurred separate from the actual launch activity.

If this occurred as part of the fueling process, it could explain the lack of Cobra Ball activity on the day of the incident. This first, and last successful test of the Sarmat was April 20th, 2022.

With these events now official, this is at least the 4th failed test attempt of the “combat operational” Sarmat Heavy ICBM.

Note the 4 fire trucks responding to the forest fire.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is the oldest of the Pes Patron cartoons I have not yet posted.

Open thread!

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    42Comments

    1. 1.

      West of the Rockies

      Okay, I’m sure civilian strikes (murders) are designed to create terror and wear down Ukraine… but from a cost/benefit perspective, is it in Russia’s favor to use expensive cruise missiles and such to blow up apartments and playgrounds?   Ukraine, by contrast, destroys weapons depots and military targets

      Thanks again, Dr. Silverman, for your super informative posts.

      Reply
    2. 2.

      Adam L Silverman

      @West of the Rockies: Russia has lots of old stuff it can fire off. And it is also firing off old North Korean stuff. Which allows them to pursue their real strategy: genocide. In order to achieve that objective Russia has to kill and wound as many Ukrainians as possible while also making Ukraine as inhospitable to the Ukrainians as possible so he can drive out those he can’t kill. Once the vast majority are gone – dead or run off – he can then repopulate Ukraine with Russian citizens.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Jay

      I am guessing that ruZZia, like other terrorist nations, did not inform the US about the Samat test, as is normally done*, otherwise a USAF RC-135S “Cobra Ball” would have been airborne to monitor the test.

      *non terrorist nations inform others when there is going to be an ICBM test, so that other nations don’t react as if a nuclear strike is happening or a nuclear war is kicking off.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Jay

      @Adam L Silverman:

      Question,

      Given ruZZia’s worsening Demographic Crisis, where does the mad, genocidal, short, bald ruZZian Terrorist expect to get these “surplus” ruZZians with which to repopulate Ukraine?

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Jay

      Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦
      @bayraktar_1love
      1h
      K-2 Battalion of the 54th Brigade of Ukraine take a prisoner with a help of a drone. Full story and detailed video with English subtitles attached:

      «Not for the first time soldiers of the K-2 Battalion are taking a prisoner with the help of a drone. This time, drone operator with the call sign “Staiger” tried to finish off Russian military-man with drone-drops. After the fifth time, Russian decided to give up. After the failed assault, he sat in a hole for a week without food or water. Russian managed to reach the point where our infantrymen took him prisoner, but not without incident. Russians opened artillery fire on their own soldier.»

      invidious.poast.org/ZZtOA_J7eDg?si=f7xX…

      https://nitter.poast.org/bayraktar_1love/status/1837973583831728157#m

      Long drone video at the link.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Andrya

      @West of the Rockies:  @Adam L Silverman:    I think a big part of ruzzia’s motivation (for terror against civilians) is warning for their next targets:  Moldova, the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland.  The warning is meant to convey “This is what will happen to you if you resist when we come for you, so you’d better not resist”.   If my idea is correct, it shows how being a violent dictatorship reduces the tyrant’s ability to understand the thinking of other people.  putin is so used to those he terrorizes submitting from fear that he does not understand that the response to his message will likely to be “do ANYTHING rather than be ruled by this guy”.

      If my idea is correct, it also implies that putin believes that he can break the NATO compact.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Anonymous At Work

      The NPPs are the scariest out thing out there.  ZNPP in particular.  If Russia takes one down and causes any sort of leak, does it swing any leaders on the fence to act?

      Reply
    15. 15.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Jay: I have no idea. Unless he’s just going to start moving populations around a la Stalin. Which wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Jay

      @Adam L Silverman:

      Well, they are kidnapping Ukraine’s babies and children and trying to turn them ruZZian, (like vampires and werewolves do to keep their populations “up’). I don’t think that is going to work out well for the ruZZian terrorist Army.

      They are selling off Ukrainian owned housing at bargain basement prices, in the few places they didn’t utterly destroy, but the only takers are ruZZian war tourists and pensioners, all of whom have a hard time learning how indoor plumbing works.

      They are looting Ukrainian ag products and industries, but it’s a “crash out” with few future returns.

      It’s not like ruZZia has a surplus population. All they have are indigenous regions where unemployment is chronic, living conditions suck, and those are not the “White ruZZians” the tiny little terrorist and his Saint Petersburg cronies, and his “American Nationalist” pals are looking for.

      Reply
    22. 22.

      Bill Arnold

      Re the RS-28 Sarmat(wikipedia) test failure, it’s a new missile, first test flight in 2022, and 3 other (reported) test failures, so not yet reliable. It is liquid fueled (delay if not already fueled); it is replacing another liquid fueled missile (R-36M family, “UDMH as fuel and nitrogen tetroxide as an oxidizer.”)
      Russia has plenty of other missiles that are well-tested, a very large arsenal, and competent nuclear weapons engineers/scientists. And some of the missiles it has been using vs Ukraine are nuclear-capable. Though I’d bet money that Mr. P is a bit freaked out about the recent test failure; he should be. Looks like root cause analysis may be … difficult.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Gin & Tonic

      I mentioned in another thread the other day that I’m re-reading, with an eye to transcribing and interpreting for my children and grandchildren, my grandmother’s memoirs. She was born into a prominent Galician family in the 1890’s, in what they didn’t know yet were the waning days of the Austro-Hungarian Empire – she had memories, for instance, of being a flower girl when Franz-Josef I came to Lemberg/Lwow for a state visit. I may post some vignettes from time to time, but what struck me in the current passages – she finished gymnasium in 1912, but wrote most of this in the 1960’s – is her perspective on pre-war (i.e. WW I) Europe. The current chapter is called “Dancing on the Volcano.”

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Jay

      @Bill Arnold:

      we know that ruZZian Rocket and Missile specialists have been “retrained” in a couple of weeks on how to be meat cubes, and sent to the zero line.

      Now the ruZZians are doing the same to their only aircraft carrier crew, seeing as the Admiral Kuznetsov still isn’t operational and probably never will be.

      So,…………………………………..

      Reply
    28. 28.

      HumboldtBlue

      Although it is too soon to judge the historical significance of Joe Biden’s one-term presidency, it is clear that the past four years have witnessed remarkable achievements in foreign policy. Biden has made some notable strategic mistakes, as well, mostly when he chose to follow the policies of his predecessor, Donald Trump. But he has carried out a crucial task: shifting the basis of American foreign policy from an unhealthy reliance on military intervention to the active pursuit of diplomacy backed by strength. He has won back the trust of friends and allies, built and begun to institutionalize a deep American presence in Asia, restored the United States’ role in essential multilateral organizations and agreements, and ended the longest of the country’s “forever wars”—a step none of his three predecessors had the courage to take.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Bill Arnold

      @Anonymous At Work:

      The NPPs are even scarier now since creating an intentional Chernobyl might not sway anyone.

      Not gonna see another Chernobyl; current reactors are much much much safer (with a better safety culture) than that one was. ZPP, for instance, is 6 light water reactors (all shut down at the moment, IIRC).
      Prior to the Feb 2022 invasion, Ukraine was generating over 50 percent of its electricity with (almost-)-no-carbon-emissions nuclear power, and some more with hydro.
      Capacity replacement with fossil-fuel-generated electricity will kill 100s of thousands of humans per year worldwide (mostly darker skinned, and that’s a high-end estimate) in the fullness of time through global heating, and cause thousands of species extinctions.
      This is a huge item on the list of Russian crimes against humanity.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Bill Arnold

      @Jay:
      Russia occasionally announces (successful) tests, as does the USA. Here’s one (Russian) from 2019:
      Russia test-fires missile from new nuclear-powered submarine (30 October 2019)
      The point is, the Russians have varied nuclear forces, and expecting all of them to fail in e.g. in a second strike, is unreasonable.
      Conversely, for the Russians to expect than any one device (or even class of device) will work reliably is also unreasonable, for them, i.e. they have to contend with uncertainties as well.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      HumboldtBlue

      Volodymyr Zelenskyy: Scranton, Pennsylvania. I visited a plant that manufactures 155 mm artillery shells. Now, for our warriors who are defending not only our country, not only Ukraine, the plant will be ramping up production.

      I began my visit to the United States by expressing my gratitude to all the employees at the plant and by reaching agreements to expand cooperation between Pennsylvania and our Zaporizhzhia.

      It is in places like this where you can truly feel that the democratic world can prevail. Thanks to people like these—in Ukraine, in America, and in all partner countries—who work tirelessly to ensure that life is protected

      Reply
    34. 34.

      Gin & Tonic

      @HumboldtBlue: ​
      Interestingly, a lot of Ukrainians emigrated to PA, Scranton and west, in the early years of the 20th Century, many ending up working in the mines. There may be older churches, but St. Vladimir’s in Scranton, for instance, was founded in 1908 (then known as Ruthenian Greek Catholic.)

      Reply
    35. 35.

      Aggieric

      @HumboldtBlue: A month ago, I was really angry at the US oligarch-owned media, and at leading Dems for the way they forced Biden out. It was a completely fabricated situation and the general pubic bought it, so the leading Dems pushed at Biden. He’s done wonders for the economy, for foreign policy. But he’s failed on Putin and Netanyahu, so I have come around to the belief that the media did us a favor. I had no ill-disposition towards Harris in this. And now, I think (hope) she’ll be better on Ukraine and on Netanyahu. And I say “Netanyahu” with purpose. He and his sycophants are at fault in the Middle East situation.  Biden was my hero and he did much right, but he’s mired in the 90s.

      Reply
    36. 36.

      Jinchi

      Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has accused Tesla CEO Elon Musk of “remotely disabling” his Cybertruck, which had been sent to the frontline of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

      I’m glad Elon shut down Kadyrov’s little toy, but there’s a part of me that’s really baffled that the CEO of a car company can simply turn off a vehicle after it’s no longer in his possession. Why would anyone buy a thing like that?

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Jinchi

      @Andrya: The warning is meant to convey “This is what will happen to you if you resist when we come for you, so you’d better not resist”.

      I don’t know. If that’s what they were trying to convey, they seriously undermined that message with their actions in places like Bucha which they overran in the early days of the war and then proceeded to massacre the civilian population.

      I’d say the message they’ve actually sent is fight til your last breath. There will be no mercy from Russia.

      Reply
    38. 38.

      Jay

      @Jinchi:

      Lot’s of companies from dealerships, rental companies, leasing agencies to mfgr’s maintain remote shut down abilities until a vehicle is fully paid for. Miss a lease payment, vehicle locked.

      Cybertrucks and new Tesla’s in ruZZia or occupied Ukraine violate US and EU  and a bunch of other nations sanctions, and as Brazil shows, Felon Musk is all bluff.

      Reply
    39. 39.

      way2blue

      @Gin & Tonic:

      I just read an unpublished memoir by a friend who was born in Poland in 1937.  Recounting his memories of surviving WWII as a child.  He too wrote for his children & grandchildren.  A  child’s view of German planes bombing Warsaw…   Adults confused why the Soviets, just outside Warsaw, did nothing.  Slipping off a train headed to Oswiencim owing to his mother bribing the guard with a gold cigarette case.  And so it goes.

      Reply
    41. 41.

      Chris

      @Aggieric:

      He’s done wonders for the economy.  For foreign policy, though, his two big challenges have been Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Palestine, and he’s fucked them both up six ways to breakfast.

      The high water mark of his foreign policy was getting us out of Afghanistan; of course, it was actually Trump that negotiated that withdrawal, though we get really cute about when we do and don’t remember that.

      So yeah, on the whole, I’m comfortable saying he’s been a disaster on foreign policy.  I hope Harris can improve markedly on that, though I have my doubts.

      Reply

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