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You are here: Home / Open Threads / Waiting for Helene

Waiting for Helene

by | 69 Comments

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#97L has been added to the books. Remarkable agreement (at least with GFS & Euro ensembles) this far out. Maybe #Helene

[image or embed]

— weathermatrix.bsky.social (@weathermatrix.bsky.social) September 22, 2024 at 3:44 PM

A large tropical cyclone is likely to form in the northern Caribbean or the southern Gulf of Mexico sometime in the next day or two. Once the storm is named, we’ll know it be Helene. For the Jackals in western Florida and southern Alabama, today would be a great time to start preparing for a large, likely major hurricane to come ashore by Thursday. Start filling jugs three quarters full of water and placing them in the fridge/freezer; fill up the gas tank and make plans to head inland or for the hills.

Be safe

Open Thread

Reader Interactions

69Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Helene is headed at Matt Gaetz’s district like the Hurricane was Gaetz and his district was 16 years old.

  3. 3.

    Wvng

    I expect any storm where conditions allow tropical development has a very good chance of become a major storm, intensifying with stunning rapidity. Just too much fuel out there. This is our future.

  4. 4.

    Harrison Wesley

    I’m following it, but so far it looks like it’s not going to hit the part of Florida where I am.  Why doesn’t the Merlin of Mar-a-Lago just use his Sharpie of Power to redirect it back out to the Atlantic?

  5. 5.

    Westyny

    Looks like the damage could extend up through the Northeast.  The remnants of Ida flooded my condo in NJ in 2021.  To quote a sainted BJer, “Blech.”

  7. 7.

    gvg

    I had a busy weekend and wasn’t aware until work called for early certification of payroll and projecting all time for the week NOW. Usually it’s thursday, not monday.

    Before 2004 (the year with 4 major hurricanes fitting Florida) Businesses and the State used to dither and try to wait till the projections were pretty certain. After that year, everyone just…..changed to plan to have closures, build extra days into the year and do it, don’t whine or dither. Some years nothing happens, some years we close and then reopen with little panic. It works.

  10. 10.

    Old Dan and Little Ann

    Our Harris / Walz sign arrived today.  My 9yo helped me put it up.  Then I had to post a pic online to needle all the assholes in my life.

  11. 11.

    Ohio Mom

    We haven’t had any rain in southwest Ohio in weeks and weeks. From these maps, I see where the rain predicted for the end of the week is coming from.

  12. 12.

    JPL

    @raven: I lost power for days when a downgraded hurricane passed through the Atlanta.   Lost power for 4 days.   Downed trees cause havoc.   I went ahead and charged my backup solar battery and other devices.   I just hate tossing food

    It’s still early but you are going to be on the right side.

  14. 14.

    raven

    @Ryan: Fucking asshole is going to the UGA-Bama Game Saturday. I hope it’s a torrent. He did that at the National Championship game between us and it took people an extra hour to get through security.

  16. 16.

    New Deal democrat

    Well, DJTrump Media stock may not even make it to Election Day before being delisted.

    The lock-up period that prevents insiders like Trump from selling their stock expired late last week.

    The stock price has declined from $16 to just over $12. Down 25% in 3 trading days, and down over 80% from its peak in March shortly after the public offering.

  21. 21.

    bbleh

    Having grown up with hurricanes I tend to say, when in doubt, button things up as tight as you can and take a road trip.  (In the islands, we couldn’t do the road-trip part.)  Yeah you may be delayed getting back, but the risks from that are an order of magnitude less than those of staying.

    @Wvng: concur, unfortunately.

    But on the bright side, looks like NE-CD2 is safe, at least for now.

  22. 22.

    eclare

    I met satby last night and picked up William the rescue kitty!  He is such a sweet kitty, and satby is heroic.  She drove him from South Bend IN to Memphis for him to find a home.  William (aka Pooh, after Winnie) is home.

  24. 24.

    bbleh

    @OId Man Shadow: @New Deal democrat: may also mean that DJT has started dumping by some means.  I don’t know the detailed reporting requirements, but I don’t suppose they’re real-time.

    @Bill Arnold: is it really though?  I mean, it’s FREE MONEY for him, courtesy of a bunch of tag-along greedheads and a gigantic number of marks.  So it’s not as much as it was on paper at one point, but does anyone really expect that kind of valuation to hold?  I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s perfectly pleased with his orange-painted self.

  28. 28.

    JPL

    @eclare: How sweet!   Send pics to WG so we can all see.

     

    fyi It was a tropical storm when it hit 4 years ago.  I think it was Zeta because it was near Halloween and close to a million were without power in the state.

  29. 29.

    New Deal democrat

    @bbleh:

    that DJT has started dumping by some means.

    I would guess that that is a virtual certainty. His m.o. is to do whatever he wants and let people try to catch him later.

  34. 34.

    Bill Arnold

    @bbleh:

    I mean, it’s FREE MONEY for him, courtesy of a bunch of tag-along greedheads and a gigantic number of marks.

    That’s the rational take. But the huge stock price slide is also failure. Pre-politics and pre-decline-towards-dementia, he was able to rationalize large business failures. Not sure he can do it so well any more; he’s been denying the 2020 election for close to 4 years.

  36. 36.

    TBone

    Under U.S. Securities law, insiders who sell stock are required to file a Form 4 disclosure within two business days — which would be end of day on Tuesday, Sept. 24, for any insiders who sold stock on that day.
    Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is the largest shareholder in Trump Media, with 114.75 million shares, or 57% of the company’s outstanding stock.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/trump-s-social-media-stock-djt-drops-ahead-of-insider-stock-sale-filing-deadline/ar-AA1r3ir8

    If he changes his mind and does sell some shares in the near future, he could find himself in legal hot water, a securities lawyer told MarketWatch last week.

  39. 39.

    New Deal democrat

    @TBone: Of course, if he wins the election, who is going to enforce it?

    it’s also interesting to consider who would be buying from him (or his cut-outs). There are probably still some rubes, but my guess would be billionaires and foreign governments looking to curry favor with him.

  40. 40.

    trollhattan

    In a few days might be checking with the kid on whether she prefers wildfires and earthquakes or hurricanes. Rather inland so no storm surges to ponder.

  44. 44.

    bbleh

    @HinTN: @New Deal democrat: and that’s assuming he files the forms at all, which if he’s selling to willing bribers buyers might not happen for quite a while, because who’s gonna know?  And even then, he’ll throw lawyers at it, there will be endless motions and appeals, and perhaps at the end, IF he’s actually held accountable, maybe … a fine? Cost of doing business, amirite?

    Breaking rules is a thrill for him, as well as a political trademark.  He might do it just for fun.

  45. 45.

    Jeffro

    Quick show of (virtual) hands: who here has a well-stocked ‘go bag’ + a case of bottled water stashed in their house?

    (we do, and it’s deeply comforting!  highly recommended, no matter where you live!!)

    stay safe, Jackals!

  46. 46.

    topclimber

    @Jeffro: I just checked mine this weekend and found the water and nutrition bars, which started with a 5-year shelf life, will expire in eight months. Another recurring task my disorganized self must remember!

  47. 47.

    Jeffro

    @topclimber: good deal!

    I set an electronic calendar reminder to check mine once a year.

    Side note/humblebragging: I don’t know where I saw the original tip or suggestion, but in our ‘go bag’, I have a) a list of everything that’s in there and b) a note about what else in the house to grab if we have 2 min, 10 min, 1 hour, or 1 day to evac.

  48. 48.

    Tom Levenson

    @New Deal democrat: Volume almost 20 million shares, double its recent average.

    As in, insiders are dumping the stock, getting what they can while they can.

    Trump has said he isn’t doing that, and Trump is an honorable man, right? But even if he is slipping a few shares into the market, he can’t get rid of much of his holding as that would a) be obvious and b) crash the stock.

    But some folks are definitely getting while the getting is good

    Edited to add: All of the above has been noted by commenters faster off the mark than me.

  52. 52.

    mrmoshpotato

    @HinTN:

    We’re in the bullseye and just waiting to be told when we have to cut the vacation short.

    Are you talking about Tennessee, or are you vacationing in a different state?

  54. 54.

    artem1s

    Remember Project 25 and the GOP want to dismantle NOAA and privatize the use of data from NASA built weather satellites. No more free weather or GPS for that matter. Anything to keep the data about climate change hidden from the public. Luckily hurricane tracking is vitally important to so many Red states so it would be hard to shut them down.

  58. 58.

    Redshift

    @artem1s: It wasn’t just about climate change. The guy who owns AccuWeather was angling for this in the first Trump maladministration, and had been trying before that. His plan seemed to be:

    • get them to privatize the weather service
    • get the contract for it
    • make everyone else pay for what used to be a public good

    So basically pure grift; make things worse for everyone to line his pockets.

  59. 59.

    artem1s

    @Ohio Mom: ​ 
    Fortuitously, I just ordered a solar generator from Anker. We had a week without power in NEOH because of a couple of tornadoes back in early Aug. My sister and her husband bought one of these for their camper.
    I figured I could use one too for keeping the fridge or other appliances going in another power outage. Probably won’t get it in time for this storm though.

  61. 61.

    TBone

    @New Deal democrat: another opportunity for me to linguistically slap Chief Ass Kisser Roberts upside the head!

    The Supreme Court clawed back the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) powers Thursday by invalidating the agency’s internal system used to seek civil fraud penalties.

    The 6-3 decision along ideological lines rules unconstitutional the SEC’s in-house administrative courts, a key tool it has leveraged in enforcing securities laws. The Biden administration has warned such an outcome would threaten agencies across the federal government that use similar setups.

    Roberts was joined by the court’s five other conservatives, with the three liberals in dissent. Justice Sonia Sotomayor read her dissent aloud from the bench, a rarity used to underscore sharp disagreements in a case. It marked the second time this term a justice read a dissent from the bench. “Today’s ruling is part of a disconcerting trend: When it comes to the separation of powers, this Court tells the American public and its coordinate branches that it knows best,” Sotomayor wrote.

    https://www.aol.com/news/supreme-court-claws-back-sec-141830212.html

  62. 62.

    Geminid

    @Baud: I’m trying. But the Turks have been mad at the US ever since George Bush blew up their neighborhood with his stupid Iraq war. And now the Gaza war has angered many Turks who hold the US responsible for Israel’s destructive tactics.

    Underlying all this animus is Turkiye’s troubled political history from 1960 to 2000. Turks believe that the US enabled two military coups and two other changes of government demanded by the Turkish military.

    During the Cold War there was a covert CIA/Pentagon program called Operation Gladio that had a big impact upon Turkiye. The aim was to combat potential Russian invasions of frontline countries by means of armed resistance, but the Turkish iteration, “Counterguerilla,” had a strong interest in countering leftist/populist political movements.

    Turkiye’s civilian governments and public never even knew of Counterguerilla’s existence until 1982. The program has never been officially investigated, but it is believed to have been a key component of the Turkish Deep State which played a role in Turkiye’s political system well into this century.

    However, while Turks have a lot of distrust towards the US as a nation, people here and elsewhere who have visited the country remark upon the genuine hospitality and friendliness Turks show them. By contrast, Turks seem to really dislike Russians as people.

  63. 63.

    NotMax

    Also too, fill the bathtub and/or the washing machine with water to use for toilet flushing, pet bowls, etc., just in case.

  64. 64.

    frosty

    @Jeffro: a note about what else in the house to grab if we have 2 min, 10 min, 1 hour, or 1 day to evac.

    Great idea! Where did you get your ideas? If you made it up yourself, can you post it? Of if it’s too long, send it to WG with a suggestion for a good FP post.

  65. 65.

    Another Scott

    @artem1s: Be aware that refrigerators (typically) have compressors which means electric motors which means large inductive loads.  They take a lot of power (current) to start up (for a very brief period of time) – a rule of thumb is startup requires 3-6x the current as for steady state operation.

    Be sure that the power station can handle brief surges like that before you depend upon it.

    A reddit thread with more information.

    HTH! Good luck!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  66. 66.

    frosty

    @NotMax: I filled the bathtubs on 12/31/1999. And I re-upped my ham license and bought a transceiver the same year.

    Ham radio isn’t as interesting as it was when I got my first license in HS. For one, you can “talk” to anyone in the country or the world via internet, as we are doing here. Second, nobody young does this any more and hams skew RWNJ these days. Or so it sounded to me.

  68. 68.

    BritinChicago

    @Baud: Very interesting info—thanks for linking. If I were asked the question I’d say: Get back to me in six weeks and a couple of days…. (Sometimes think I’ll look into the possibility of going back to the UK if TCFG wins. Would have been a more attractive prospect without Brexit.)

  69. 69.

    BritinChicago

    @Redshift: “basically pure grift; make things worse for everyone to line his pockets.”

    Nice summary of the basic methodology of today’s right-wing.

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