Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Pelosi: “He either is stupid, or he thinks the rest of us are.” Why not both?

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Let me file that under fuck it.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

The willow is too close to the house.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Fuck that bum, let’s go Joe!

He really is that stupid.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

We won’t go back.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Don’t expect peaches from an apple tree.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 943: President Zelenskyy Travels to the US & Russia Continues Hunting Ukrainians in Kherson with Drones

War for Ukraine Day 943: President Zelenskyy Travels to the US & Russia Continues Hunting Ukrainians in Kherson with Drones

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Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing very well. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, I don’t have the bandwidth to add another conflict for updates right now. But I do want to make a couple of quick points. The first is that Israel has, in just today’s strikes, has killed enough Lebanese to get over the 25% mark of its total campaign numbers from 2006. That campaign lasted 34 days. It is unclear what the proportion of Hezbullah fighters and personnel are to civilian casualties right now, regardless, the overall number and percentage compared to 2006 is astonishing.

Full disclosure: I know Liz Sly. She’s an excellent reporter and knows the Levant exceedingly well. She interviewed me when I was deployed in Iraq.

Second, I don’t know how this ends. The Biden administration had been trying to deescalate this for almost an entire year. That’s not worked for a variety of reasons. Third, the people who will be hurt the worst are just every day Lebanese and Israelis. Some will be Arab, some will be Druze. Some will by Muslim, some Jewish, some Christian, some Druze, some Bahai. They are the real victims. They are the victims of leaders who care more about themselves and their doctrinally derived ideological grievances and megalomaniacal sense of historical over importance than about the people they claim to represent.

Russia is hunting Ukrainian civilians in Kherson:

They’re doing something similar in Nikopol:

❗️The russian bastards are terrorizing Nikopol: they attach heat traps to FPV drones and randomly launch them at houses and cars, thus provoking fires, — the military.

They do not try to find military targets, and these traps are not aimed. The burning temperature is about 2000 degrees.

President Zelenskyy has traveled to the US in order to address the UN General Assembly later in the week. Today he addressed the Plenary Session of the Summit of the Future. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Know Exactly How Much Global Unity Can Achieve – Speech by the President of Ukraine at the Plenary Session of the Summit of the Future

23 September 2024 – 23:53

Thank you so much! Ladies and gentlemen,

It is important that the world is working to develop a shared vision for the best future for humanity. As soon as such collective efforts begin, true interests are always revealed.

Ukraine supports efforts to keep all nations united, safe and strictly adhere to the U.N. Charter. And you all can see who always not only stands against it, but also actively works to undermine global unity.

This time, during the work on the Pact for the Future, the same small group of seven accomplices, led by Russia, has once again acted destructively, always opposing any global initiatives that strengthen the effectiveness of the U.N. Charter.

This group has always behaved this way whenever the U.N. tried to do something that works for everyone’s good. And you all see it. I thank Germany and Namibia for their co-facilitation of the Pact for the future. I also thank Zambia and Sweden for facilitating the negotiations on the Global Digital Compact. My thanks go to Jamaica and the Netherlands, who co-chaired the inter-governmental process on the Declaration for Future Generations. It is very, very important that we hear a united voice from Africa now – this common stance of African nations strengthens global efforts. And my sincere thanks to all the countries that have offered their helpful ideas for the future.

The world needs a peaceful future and sustainable development. And I say this as the President of Ukraine, a country resisting Russia’s brutal colonial aggression. And we know exactly how much global unity can achieve – both here at the U.N. and through the Peace Summits for Ukraine, where we aim to overcome the destructiveness of Russia and its accomplices.

We are now preparing for the second Peace Summit, moving forward with our partners, step by step, according to the Peace Formula.

And we are working on food security, energy security, and holding Russia accountable for its terror. Next, we will address all the other points of the Peace Formula, including the release of prisoners, the restoration of territorial integrity, and more.

And we are preparing a document to present at the second Peace Summit.

I invite all leaders, nations to continue supporting our joint efforts for a just and peaceful future!

Putin has stolen much already, but he will never steal the world’s future. I am sure.

Thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

He also addressed the American Academy of Achievement Awards Ceremony, where he received an award. Video followed by the English transcript.

We Need Not to Lose the Next Few Months in War, So That We Don’t Lose the Next Decades – Speech by the President of Ukraine at the American Academy of Achievement Awards Ceremony

23 September 2024 – 12:32

Thank you very much.

Dear friends! All guests gathered here tonight and every friend of freedom who will hear us! 

I thank you for this honor. And I want you to know that in everything we have achieved so far, and most importantly – everything we can still achieve, our people and our Ukrainian bravery – you have become a part of it – your help, your choices, your determination will not let freedom be lost.

The world today does not allow us to lose a single battle when on one side is freedom, and everything we would never wish for our children is on the other. None of us would wish – no matter we are in America, Ukraine or anywhere across Europe, anywhere in the world – no one willingly chooses regimes like the Russian one, Iranian or any other dictatorship, for their children. These regimes are always built on violence, always make wars and spill blood, and always steal the future – they ruin years, leaving decades in ruins. This is why they must lose.

We don’t have much time. The next few months will be decisive. Ahead of us in this war – Russia’s war against Ukraine and all of you because this is Russia’s war against freedom itself, – we are short of time to define what the outcome will be. And we must define it. Not Russia, not their bloody allies.

We need to be faster. We need not to lose the next few months in war, so that we don’t lose the next decades. Ukraine has a Plan for Victory. And I will present this Plan to America – to President Biden, to the Congress and to both Presidential candidates – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – and all our global allies. And I believe this must be our shared achievement – victory for freedom, with no compromises at freedom’s expense. Right now, we all hold the power to shape the world our children and their children will live in.

What will they believe in? Our children.

Will they believe in the values that unite all of you despite any differences, and this country, and our bond with America?

Or will they lose hope, living in a world where wars are permanent?

This Golden Plate will never be given to Putin or such as him. The reason is obvious – there are no awards for killings they bring, for dreams they ruin and for countries they burn. Today people receive this award for being the best in what they do – for their ingenuity which can only be realized in freedom.

We all need victory. And we all know why.

And may that victory reflect each and every one of you and your support. Thank you! Thank you for the invitation!

God bless America! 

Cлава Україні!

Scranton, PA;

Zelenskyy visited a Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in the USA where 155mm artillery shells for the Armed Forces of Ukraine are produced

“400 people work here. I really wanted to come here and thank you. 400 people saved millions of Ukrainians. From myself and all our people, thank you very much.” – Zelenskyy, addressing the factory workers.

https://president.gov.ua/news/prezident-vidvidav-skrentonskij-armijskij-boyepripasnij-zavo-93389

During my visit to the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, where components for artillery and mortar shells are produced, including 155 mm shells for Ukraine, I emphasized the dedication of the workers, which is truly inspiring—they are helping Ukraine stand strong in our fight for freedom.

I am grateful to the people of Scranton, Pennsylvania, and all the states where Americans are building this incredible arsenal of global freedom. Together, we are strengthening the defense of liberty and democracy.

🇺🇦🇺🇸

Washington, DC & New York:

From Punchbowl News:

The Ukrainian government is seeking to mobilize U.S. lawmakers as part of its bid to discredit China’s so-called “peace” plan as the United Nations General Assembly gets underway this week.

Over the weekend, Ukrainian officials were circulating materials to members of Congress outlining Kyiv’s strong opposition to the Beijing-authored plan, according to a senator who was contacted on the issue.

Several lawmakers are expected to be in New York for meetings as part of the annual U.N. gathering. And the outreach shows that Ukraine is looking to U.S. lawmakers to help make their case against China’s plan, which has drawn praise from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The expectation is that China’s top officials will be making a strong pitch for their proposal here at the U.N. meeting.

Why Congress? It should go without saying that Congress is one of the Ukrainian government’s most important constituencies beyond its borders. Without congressional backing, Ukraine wouldn’t get critical weapons and equipment in its still desperate struggle with Russia.

And the last thing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to see is an effort to restrict his military’s ability to ultimately defeat Russia. That’s exactly how Zelensky views Beijing’s plan, which calls on Western countries to stop enabling Ukraine’s military strikes into Russian territory, among other recommendations.

Of course, bipartisan majorities in Congress are actively urging the Biden administration to lift existing restrictions on Ukraine’s ability to strike into Russia. So it makes sense that Ukraine would want to enlist lawmakers to help make their case to the dozens of world leaders and thousands of diplomats who will be at UNGA this week.

What’s the argument? Kyiv’s opposition to China’s efforts focus in large part on what Ukrainian officials say is their short-term goal: pushing the United States to allow it to strike inside Russia as a way to establish a “buffer” against attacks on Ukraine.

According to the senator briefed on the issue and a Ukrainian official, the materials shared with U.S. lawmakers have warnings about China’s intentions, including to “take advantage of the uncertainty caused by the U.S. presidential election.”

Beijing’s plan is described by the Ukrainian government as self-serving, with the goal of strengthening China-Russia ties by forcing Moscow to increase its dependency on China. Kyiv also warns that Beijing will try to enlist “one of the powerful European players as mediators.”

There was more Ukraine news regarding Washington DC in this morning’s Politico Morning Defense, which I get as a courtesy from a former client. And it ain’t good.

Ukraine not included: The short-term funding bill does not renew the administration’s authority to transfer nearly $6 billion worth of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. Without action from Congress to raise the threshold on drawdown authority, the program will reset to $100 million on Oct. 1.

The Biden administration has requested that Congress roll over the $5.9 billion that hasn’t been used. The authority is Washington’s main tool for arming Ukraine, and allows the Pentagon to send weapons from military inventories into the fight. There’s no money appropriated for it, but Congress has allocated billions to replace weapons that have been drawn from DOD stocks.

It remains unclear if Congress or the Pentagon will pivot to a Plan B for assisting Ukraine. Pentagon officials had warned that its expiration would hinder efforts to help the country.

After the conservative CR that Speaker Mike Johnson put forward last week didn’t re-up the authority, Democrats urged him to rethink that stance in a letter last week spearheaded by HFAC ranking Democrat Gregory Meeks and Rep. Bill Keating.

Speaking of Washington, DC and not good:

No rush. Take all the time you need. Maybe have an ice cream while you’re at it.

Here’s the full text of Tatarigami’s quoted tweet:

President Zelensky is seeking security guarantees as part of Ukraine’s ongoing effort to join NATO. While few expect this request to result in a positive answer, the reality is that Ukraine urgently needs security assurances to end the war and ensure its survival. This isn’t mere rhetoric to grab your attention – it’s an invitation to an honest discussion about why Zelensky is pushing for a new security framework – and why it must be taken seriously.

Some of these points may echo earlier discussions, but they need to be repeated to understand the full picture. No matter how optimistic some portray the situation, or talk about great Ukraine after the victory, it doesn’t resolve the problem. Admitting the problem and discussing it is the first step to a solution.

Let’s take a hard look at the potential consequences if Ukraine freezes the conflict without securing firm guarantees.

First, consider the economic and demographic problems of post-war Ukraine. The country has lost ~18% of its territory, including important agricultural and industrial regions in the south and east. Even in areas under Ukrainian control near the frontline, land remains unsafe due to extensive minefields. Sea ports like Mariupol and Berdyansk are occupied, and large industrial facilities, akin to Azovstal are destroyed.

Demographically, the situation is even worse. Before the war, Ukraine already faced one of the worst population trends in Europe. The Ptoukha Institute for Demography estimates that only around 29 million people lived in government-controlled areas at the start of 2024 – which is down from 45 million before the 2014 Russian invasion and Crimea’s annexation.

The war has accelerated the exodus of younger Ukrainians, particularly women and children, leaving behind an aging population. Adding to this, hundreds of thousands of veterans will return home, many of whom will require physical and psychological support. Managing this social, economic, and political burden without security guarantees would be a monumental task for any state forced to have high military spending, let alone Ukraine, with GDP per capita almost 5 times less than Greece. Additionally, without firm security guarantees and a concrete long-term plan, the likelihood of people returning from abroad remains slim.

Lack of guarantees will multiply the factor of instability, with fears of another Russian invasion driving more citizens to flee once borders fully reopen. The resulting uncertainty would deter post-war investments, as high-security risks and social instability would create an unattractive environment for any serious economic engagement.

Politically, Ukraine will also enter a period of uncertainty and risks. While Zelensky remains a unifying figure in wartime, internal tensions, which are often invisible to the Western audience are mounting, creating an increasingly toxic political atmosphere. A stalled war, millions displaced, lost territories, and a crippled economy hardly set the stage for calm and easy elections. As Ukraine enters a period of intense political competition, accusations of military failures are likely to dominate the discourse. It will be a test of Ukraine’s ability to preserve national unity across political lines.

Some argue that immigration could help address the problem, but what exactly would draw immigrants to Ukraine, where the average monthly salary is between $500 and $700, in a country ravaged by post-war problems and facing the constant threat of another Russian invasion? Especially when far more attractive opportunities are available within the EU.

Many Western partners assure Ukraine that aid will ensure that it won’t happen, but how reliable are these statements, given the history of similar statements akin to “Will support Ukraine as long as it takes” in today’s realities? Democracies operate on election cycles, and promises of long-term support can quickly become an object of shifting political winds. As elections approach, Ukraine could find itself a target of political debate, with opposition asking why their nations should prioritize foreign aid over pressing domestic issues like healthcare, education, or economic problems. In such an environment, the commitment to Ukraine is unstable and can’t be trusted.

The same applies to military aid for Ukraine. While Russia will keep rebuilding its forces, Ukraine will primarily depend on its own, much smaller domestic production and increasingly uncertain Western support, which will use peace as an excuse to diminish its aid

Russia, despite facing similar challenges, holds a significant advantage by being larger in most metrics, allowing it to better absorb these problems. Its vast resources, particularly oil and gas, offer economic leverage to soften the post-war problems. Moreover, Russia is likely to see some sanctions bypassed thanks to inconsistent enforcement. Under these conditions, it may only be a matter of time before Russia rebuilds a force large enough to deliver a decisive blow to Ukraine. Meanwhile, democratic Ukraine, without solid security guarantees, faces a far bleaker scenario.

Current peace proposals essentially send the same message: no guarantees for Ukraine, but a demand to cede territory and abandon aspirations of joining the Western alliance. In other words, nearly 30 million people are being sacrificed because the West is too weak and unwilling to make bold, risky decisions that could shape a better future.

Germany:

Here are the details from The Financial Times:

The potential impact of Donald Trump on the Ukraine war and the western alliance is well understood. But what happens in Germany could be almost as important.

The Germans are the second-largest national aid donors to Ukraine, after the US, and they are central players in both the EU and Nato. But populist parties, sympathetic to Russia, are on the rise in Germany.

The Alternative for Germany party (AfD) almost won the elections in the state of Brandenburg on Sunday. This is the party’s third strong performance in a row, after coming first in state elections in Thuringia and a close second in Saxony.

Combine the AfD vote with that of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and something like a third of Germans — and many more in eastern Germany — are voting for populist parties that are militantly anti-migration, hostile to Nato and determined to cut off aid to Ukraine. When Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the Bundestag in June, all but four of the AfD’s 77 members boycotted his speech.

The policy stances taken by the AfD and BSW, combined with accusations that many AfD members have an undeclared agenda that is even more extremist, mean that Germany’s traditional parties will refuse to go into coalition with the populists — at least at the national level. But the rise of the political extremes is already having an influence on government policies. Germany’s decision to impose border controls with its EU neighbours reflects the angst about illegal migration that the populists have capitalised on.

Ukraine’s supporters worry that the next policy adjustments will involve a softening of German support for Kyiv. The Ukrainian army is already struggling to hold off Russian forces in the east of the country and is running short of ammunition and troops. A decline in German and American support for Ukraine could help Russia to win the war.

Even if Russian tanks do not roll into Kyiv, Ukraine’s supporters worry that the Zelenskyy government may soon be forced to make territorial concessions that would allow Vladimir Putin to claim victory. A bad peace deal could put Ukraine’s future as a viable nation in doubt and embolden Putin to threaten other countries.

Ukraine’s friends in Berlin see proliferating signs of a possible softening in German support. While Britain and the US are debating allowing Ukraine to use their long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, Germany has ruled out supplying its own Taurus missiles.

Germany’s finance minister, Christian Lindner, has said that there can be no further package of financial aid for Ukraine, without making politically impossible compensatory cuts in the budget. The EU’s decision to mobilise some frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine has taken the financial pressure off Berlin for now. But the question of German financial aid is certain to return.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is lagging badly behind in national polls and looks to be heading for defeat in next September’s federal elections. Ukraine’s most ardent supporters worry that Scholz may be tempted to try to revive his political fortunes, by launching a pre-election peace initiative with Russia.

Nervousness about what Scholz might be up to was reflected in rumours doing the rounds in Berlin last week that a contact group, composed of members of his Social Democratic party, was in Moscow for secret talks.

These suggestions were waved away in the chancellery. Scholz’s key aides seem almost equally exasperated by the Russophile populists and by the hawks in Berlin that are demanding a sharp increase in aid for Kyiv. They see themselves as representing the moderate German middle on Ukraine. The government’s task, as Scholz sees it, is to keep a divided country together around a basically pro-Ukraine policy.

For the Ukrainians, however — long frustrated by what they regard as the snail-like pace of German aid — any suggestion that the Scholz government may become even more cautious is dismaying. Hawks in Kyiv and Berlin argue that if Putin is not defeated in Ukraine, he will move on to threaten Nato and ultimately Germany itself.

Scholz and his allies insist that he is not naive about the threat posed by Putin. They see the daily evidence of Russian brutality in Ukraine, as well as sabotage and disinformation inside Germany itself. Over the long term, German analysts worry that Russia has now fully converted into an economy primed for war and weapons production. They note that some of the most advanced weaponry that Russia is churning out is not being used in Ukraine, but seems to be being stored for some possible future conflict.

The German chancellor knows all this. But political leaders live in the moment and their outlooks are almost invariably dominated by domestic politics. Scholz has a very difficult election ahead and would like to run as the peace candidate.

More at the link. If you can stomach it.

Here’s the details on the butcher’s bill Russia has run up since June:

The Norwegian Refugee Council has the details.

As the conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate dramatically, civilians are paying a heavy price amid increased attacks and violence, warns the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC). Over 3,200 civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine between June and August this year – a 33.7 per cent increase compared to the same period last year. This marks the highest three-month casualty total since 2022.

After two and a half years of escalated conflict, Ukraine once again suffers from increased attacks on civilians and widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure, including energy plants, homes, schools, and hospitals.

“The increase in devastating attacks this summer has been a stark reminder of the pain and suffering that are inflicted by this war. Communities across Ukraine have struggled to find protection from the relentless onslaught of missiles and drones that have been launched,” said Roberto Vila-Sexto, Ukraine country director for NRC.

The latest wave of attacks has also severely compromised Ukraine’s energy capacity, which has more than halved since the start of the conflict. Reduced access to energy threatens to deepen humanitarian needs as winter approaches, placing additional pressure on those who are displaced or whose homes have been damaged over the past two and a half years.

“Ukrainians are now forced to seek safety not only from the attacks, but also from the harsh winter ahead. The massive destruction of energy infrastructure heavily impacts the most vulnerable, who have often been displaced multiple times over the last two years, with limited access to help and services,” added Vila-Sexto.

The situation is particularly dire for the elderly and those with disabilities.

“I can’t remember the last time I woke up from my alarm clock. The last few months I have been woken up from the sound of air strike alarms and explosions after missile or drone attacks. You can’t sleep normally. When you go to sleep at night, you are always ready to run to the bomb shelter and it is really exhausting,” said Valentyna, 63, from Kyiv.

Displaced persons seeking safety from the attacks are often left with heavily damaged or destroyed homes, the fields they used to work contaminated by landmines and explosives, and few prospects of a return to normalcy.

In addition to the rise in civilian casualties within Ukraine, Russian authorities have reported that at least 91 civilians have been killed and 455 injured in the Russian Federation as a result of missile and drone strikes since February 2022 up to June 2024.

“This summer has been a clear warning of what the impact will be on civilian populations if this war continues to escalate. Parties to the conflict must adhere to International Humanitarian Law and protect civilians and civilian infrastructure. The international community must do everything within its power to continue to provide support for the humanitarian aid efforts, especially to those civilians living along the frontline,” said Vila-Sexto.

Notes to editors:

  • 3,274 civilian casualties were recorded in Ukraine between June and August this year (June: 161 killed/717 injured, July: 244 killed/1,112 injured, August: 184 killed/856 injured). This marks the highest three-month casualty total since 2022 (OHCHR).
  • Ukraine’s energy capacity has more than halved since the start of the conflict from February 2022 up to June 2024 (ACAPS).
  • Russian authorities have reported that at least 91 civilians have been killed and 455 injured in the Russian Federation as a result of missile and drone strikes from February 2022 up to June 2024 (United Nations).

The NATO Alliance:

Here’s the details from the US Helsinki Commission:

For years, Russia has used hybrid warfare tactics to disrupt governance, sow division, and undermine physical & economic security across NATO.

These attacks have become commonplace, but they must be treated as part of a shadow war 🇷🇺 is waging against the democratic world.
🧵1/7Image

In June, Russian agents set fire to a German defense manufacturer’s metal factory.

At the time of the attack, a German politician said, “It has long been clear that Russia is waging a hybrid war against European countries, including Germany.” 2/7

US intelligence uncovered a Russian plot to assassinate European defense industry executives supporting Ukraine.

A NATO official commented, “…we’re seeing a campaign of covert sabotage activities from Russia that have strategic consequences.” 3/7

In April, hacktivists associated with the Cyber Army of Russia targeted water systems in the US, Poland, and France in a series of attacks that threatened water supply and wastewater management. 4/7

This month, local security forces uncovered a Russian plot to train and pay operatives to perpetrate a coup in Armenia.

They planned to violently take over the country’s elected government and derail its pro-West path. 5/7

Each of these actions must be understood in the context of a Russian strategy to use every means at its disposal to undermine NATO’s unity, effectiveness, and security—and to create chaos & instability in democracies wherever possible. 6/7 
As we will explore in our hearing tomorrow, while some NATO countries may not want to accept it, Russia is already operating on a war footing against us, and we must redouble our efforts to effectively counter Russian attacks. 7/7
csce.gov/press-releases…

Russia? Waging war on NATO? Who would ever think such a thing?

Eez a puzzlement!

Kharkiv:

Donetsk Oblast:

Also, Donetsk:

From The Financial Times:

On a recent sweltering afternoon, the screens of the Ukrainian National Guard’s 15th Brigade command centre lit up with alarming footage from the eastern front: the radar was showing a dozen highly-destructive Russian glide bombs barrelling towards Ukrainian positions.

Another screen displayed hacked feeds from Russian suicide drones zeroing in on Ukrainian tanks. And a third, coming from a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone, was tracking enemy motorcycles and dune buggies headed towards Kyiv’s forces.

“You can see how they overwhelm us,” grumbled a commander known by the call sign “Phoenix”.

The Russian offensive gained steam in August, as Ukraine diverted thousands of its most battle-hardened troops to carry out a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine had hoped its audacious operation would force the Kremlin to redeploy resources from Donetsk, but that has not happened.

Instead, Russian forces captured several towns, moving within 8km of Pokrovsk and just 4km of Myrnohrad and unleashing the might of the Russian army on both logistical hubs in an attempt to take them before the end of the year.

Some commanders and many soldiers see this as the cost of the Kursk offensive and a poor trade-off.

“Kursk was a good idea, it exposed Russia as being weaker than many people believed,” said a commander of a Ukrainian ground forces unit. “But we are paying the price of it with [more of our own land].”

With a combined pre-war population of 100,000, Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are vital for Ukraine’s defence of the eastern front. If they fall, it would endanger the larger cities of Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and significantly boost Russia’s strategic position in the region, Ukrainian commanders warned.

Capturing these two hubs would also hurt Ukrainian morale, which had just received a boost from the Kursk incursion, said commanders and soldiers.

Russia’s main strategy has remained the same since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022: overpowering Ukrainian forces with sheer might and resource advantages, Phoenix and commanders from four other Ukrainian brigades told the Financial Times this month. They all complained their soldiers were sometimes outnumbered at a ratio of 1:8 and that for every shell fired, Russians were firing 10 or more.

But the Russian forces had also adapted, the commanders said, learning from earlier mistakes and avoiding large assaults with tanks and armoured vehicles. Their new tactics have led to recent successes in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat and bringing Moscow closer to its goal of controlling the entire area.

The signs of Russia’s destructive advance were evident around Pokrovsk, where freezer vans transporting fallen soldiers passed signs urging drivers to “pray for our troops”. Trucks carried damaged western-provided weaponry to the rear for repairs and excavators were digging fresh trenches in unharvested sunflower fields.

Access to Pokrovsk has become increasingly dangerous, with Russian rockets destroying overpasses and forcing evacuees on to perilous dirt roads. Inside the city, the atmosphere was eerily desolate, interrupted by the sound of nearby artillery duels. Military vehicles roamed the streets and most buildings bore the scars of aerial attacks. Missiles have also knocked out electricity and water supplies.

In August, authorities ordered the evacuation of families and children from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But 18,000 residents remain in the two cities, largely on their own after trains carrying people west were cancelled this month because of security concerns. The closest railway station is 100km west, in Pavlohrad.

The locals who refused to leave did so either out of stubbornness or for fear of starting over in a new place. A small group known as zhduny, or “the waiting ones”, supports the Russian war effort, believing life will improve under their rule. Ukrainian commanders have encountered zhduny recently in nearby Selydove, where Russian forces are advancing. The Russians evacuated some of them to occupied Mariupol, said a Ukrainian commander.

Mykhailo Temper, a battery commander in the 21st battalion of Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade who has been in the region since April, said that Russian tactics shifted in midsummer. They are now employing faster, more mobile units and have adopted strategies previously used by Wagner, the paramilitary group led by the late Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin — who was killed in a plane crash last year after leading a revolt against Moscow’s top brass.

“[Vladimir] Putin destroyed Wagner, but he took the most effective parts of it,” Temper said. The Russian army, he added, “learned lessons and experiences from Wagner and are fighting like them”.

“Boulevardier”, a drone operator in Temper’s battalion, said the new Russian tactic of using smaller infantry units to attack from several directions at once had made it harder for him to target troops.

At the same time, Ukrainians could do little about Russian attack helicopters and jets carrying glide bombs, soldiers said.

“We have no air defences here,” said a deputy commander in Ukraine’s 72nd mechanised brigade fighting 70km south of Pokrovsk in Vuhledar, a town at risk of being encircled by Russian troops.

The attempt to take Vuhledar has been costly for Moscow’s forces, with thousands of troops killed and hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles destroyed in nearly two years of battle.

But with his own troops “exhausted”, the deputy commander said, the Russians could stand a better chance at taking it in the coming weeks. “We have had zero rotations since the full-scale invasion” began in 2022, he said. Typically, that would happen every one to two months. “We need a break.”

Delays in western arms deliveries are also a factor in the worsening situation for Ukrainian forces, commanders said. But the commanders laid the blame with Kyiv’s military leadership for moving too slowly to build defensive lines and then constructing ineffective trenches and firing positions.

“Where are our fortifications?” the deputy commander asked. “There were no real defensive lines” in February when the Russians first managed a breakthrough, taking the town of Avdiivka.

What had been built since was inadequate, he said: in open fields, far from tree lines, and sometimes behind hilltops — which makes it hard to spot the enemy.

“This is bullshit,” he said in frustration. “We can’t get infantry to trenches without any cover.” The troops rely on shrubbery, which hardly conceals their movements, leading to “senseless deaths”.

Much more at the link!

Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast:

Here’s the full video, with subtitles of Ukraine’s K2 Unit using its drones to rescue a Russian soldier and safely bring him in as a POW:

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Omsk Oblast, Russia:


Here’s a new visual assessment of the battle damage to the Russian ammo depots:

Maxar collected a trove of new high-resolution satellite imagery showing the damage to Russian ammunition depots in western southern Russia. 📷@Maxar

Thread with much imagery.

Starting off with the before / after shots of the ammo storage buildings at the Oktyabrski depot.

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Imagery of the destruction of probable missile cannisters at the Oktyabrski ammo depot.
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At one location in the Toropets depot, a large crater nearly 82-meters wide is visible where there used to be a storage building and bunker. Additionally, train rail cars that were likely used to transport ammunition to the depots were damaged or destroyed at each location.
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More images collected from Toropets.

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More images collected from Toropets.

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More images collected from Toropets.
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Damage to material being offloaded from railcars at Toropets. Before vs after.
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Destroyed railcars observed in the vicinity of the Toropets ammo depot.Image

Several have asked about Russia’s munitions production. This should answer some of your questions:

Russia produces 500 Shahed drones per month, as well as 90-115 cruise missiles and up to 56 ballistic missiles – Forbes Ukraine

According to the publication’s estimates, the rate of missile production in Russia is 132-171 units per month. And this costs Moscow $1.1 billion.

Some information on stockpiles and weapons production:
▪️ Shahed drones – 200 units in stock. Up to 500 new ones per month:
▪️ Kh-101 cruise missile – 190 units, 40-50 news ones per month;
▪️ Iskander-M ballistic missile – 130 units, 30-40 new ones per month;
▪️ Fath-360 ballistic missile from Iran – range up to 120 km. First batch – 200 missiles, The Times wrote;
▪️ KN-23 – about 60 missiles from North Korea, etc.

Source: https://forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine/rosiya-viroblyae-vid-130-dalekobiynikh-raket-ta-ponad-500-droniv-na-misyats-forbes-ukraine-diznavsya-detali-17092024-23667

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  • Adam L Silverman
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    17Comments

    4. 4.

      Kent

      Drone technology is advancing at light speed in this Ukraine war.

      I read about what is happening in Kherson and it occurs to me that the same exact thing is going to soon start happening on the West Bank making settlements unviable.  When Palestinians can fly explosive drones straight into the front doors and windows of settler schools and synagogues in isolated settlements from remote locations in Lebanon or Jordan it is going to be game over.  Because there will be no end to it.  Ever.  They will NEVER run out of drones with Iran and others supplying them.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Gin & Tonic

      @Kent: An interesting thing I saw during my time there in June, and believe I may have commented on, is what I can only call DIY drone production. Age of conscription begins at 25, so you have groups of guys with engineering degrees who can’t leave the country but aren’t subject to being drafted yet, who buy all kinds of stuff on AliExpress and work in scattered low-key workshops building stuff that’s cool (to them) and that they believe will be useful. How it gets deployed is something I didn’t get into, but the development work moves very fast. There’s no procurement infrastructure, no group of majors or colonels writing specs, just a bunch of dudes egging each other on with “hey, you know what’d be neat?”

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Carlo Graziani

      The strikes at Toropetsk and Tikhoretsk are mind-boggling. Every structure in those before images is a hole in the after images, and railcar depots are nothing but ash. I would dearly like to know more about those drone raid sizes, loads, and timings.

      As to inventory and production rate: the effect is likely to be a disruption on a scale of a few months—say until December. The reason is that supply is supposed to be a stable flow, with weapons and ammo coming off the production chain at about the same rate it’s fired, but with a stockpile stage between production and usage. The stockpile confers logistical flexibility, allowing surges where operationally required, compensated by lower-fire periods of stockpile replenishment. The Ukrainian raids have just burned a big part of the stockpile to the ground now, estimated at 2-3 months ammo supply. That means that a lot of stock which cannot now be either stored at or supplied from destroyed ammo dumps needs to go direct to the front lines from the factory lines. That is a major logistical disruption, especially to an organization not famed for its logistical flexibility. it will take them a while to unfuck their fucked up supply lines.

      That said, it’s a temporary reprieve. Perhaps enough to save Pokrovsk through the Winter and the next act. On the other hand, if the Ukrainian Drone Force can figure out how to target the factories as effectively as they have the ammo dumps, that by itself could produce a new war…

      Reply
    11. 11.

      grubert

      I would like to ask Adam.. do you think Jake Broe is too optimistic?

      Cause after I read your posts ( and I read it all except for the political boilerplate, )  I feel I need a Broe or Rehi to feel less .. depressed

       

      I get it of course.. it is what it is

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Jay

      Anton Gerashchenko
      @Gerashchenko_en
      8h
      Do you remember that legendary video in which a Ukrainian woman from Genichesk in March 2022 advised the Russian military to put sunflower seeds in their pockets?

      These words spread across the Internet, and millions watched the video of this brave woman.

      This is Svitlana Pankova, and she was finally able to leave the occupied territories.

      Because of this brave act, Svitlana Pankova came under the scrutiny of the Russian special services. In July 2023, the occupiers released a video showing how the woman was forced to apologize for her words on camera. A criminal case was opened against Svitlana under the article on “extremism,” and the occupiers were even going to send her to Russia for a show trial.

      I am very happy that she managed to get to free Ukraine! And I believe that we will liberate her hometown!

      https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1838290962419978384#m

      Reply
    14. 14.

      tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)

      Thank you, Adam, I want MVP to win this election, but she is going to have some very big hot spots on the foreign policy front to deal with. Do we have any clear sense who might advise her and if she’ll move the lines that Biden has so far established?

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Chris

      Scholz’s aides […] see themselves as representing the moderate German middle

      My God, I’m so fucking sick of people thinking that being in the “middle” of any given argument is all it takes to know you’re right.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      wjca

      @tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat): Do we have any clear sense who might advise her and if she’ll move the lines that Biden has so far established?

      Her current National Security Advisor is Philip Gordon. I believe that, in the past, Adam has expressed some doubts about how different his views might be.  But at least the current policy isn’t his policy.  So changing it could be easier for him.

      Reply

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