The Trump family is selling like there's no tomorrow and they're not going to win in November pic.twitter.com/OBjfSQQcnI
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) September 22, 2024
This, given the tenor of our times, is a hopeful sign. The autocrat’s family doesn’t start tearing the copper plumbing out of the palace walls, or stripping the gilding off the furniture, until they’re actually worried about being overthrown. Or, then again, maybe the Trump team has access to medical news which hasn’t been shared with us hoi polloi…
But we have perhaps solved the minor mystery of why Melania has been willing to attend Log Cabin Republican events even when she conspicuously avoided her husband’s performances. Per CNN, “Melania Trump was paid for a rare appearance at a political event. It’s not clear who cut the unusual six-figure check”:
Melania Trump has barely been seen on the campaign trail this year. One of the few times she has appeared at a political event, she’s received a six-figure paycheck – a highly unusual move for the spouse of a candidate.
The former first lady spoke at two political fundraisers for the Log Cabin Republicans this year, and she was paid $237,500 for an April event, according to former President Donald Trump’s latest financial disclosure form. The payment was listed as a “speaking engagement.”
Trump’s latest disclosure form said Melania Trump was paid by the Log Cabin Republicans for the April fundraiser. But it’s a mystery who actually cut the check: Charles Moran, president of the Log Cabin Republicans, told CNN earlier this month the group did not put up the money for her to speak, and the disclosure form did not give any more information about the source of the payment.
Ahead of the other fundraiser in July for the conservative LGBTQ group, a person familiar said at least one request was made to a donor about a similar payment. It’s unclear whether Melania Trump was ultimately paid. The campaign has not put out the financial disclosure for that period. The source told CNN that Ric Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and a Trump ally, was the one who made the request on behalf of Melania Trump. Sources said Grenell has also helped the former first lady with other business ventures.
Campaign finance and government ethics experts say a payment to a presidential candidate’s spouse to appear at political fundraisers in an election is unusual, ethically questionable and should, at the very least, be properly noted in the disclosure forms…
If the organization did not in fact make the payment to Melania Trump, the former president’s financial disclosure form may run afoul of ethics rules because it should have listed the sponsor who paid Melania Trump and not just where she spoke, Canter said.
“You could indicate that payment was for a speaking engagement for the Log Cabin Republicans, but you also need to report who the source of the payment was, otherwise you can’t assess for the conflicts of interest, and it wouldn’t be in compliance with the rules,” she said. “It should have properly been reported so that the source of the income is listed for the honorarium.”
Sources supportive of Melania Trump who attended the Log Cabin Republican events and didn’t know she got paid for at least one of them defended her, saying it’s her right to decide how to spend her time and to get paid for her time. One person close to Melania Trump said she has decided “my best and highest use is where I am,” adding that “she’s a priceless, timeless asset” for Donald Trump…
Non-sequential bills, deposited to the safe deposit in advance of every appearance. Being the spouse of the worst president in American history has a shelf life, after all.
MSNBC knocked it out of the park with the first sentence:
“There’s nothing sadder than an aging salesman trying to close one last deal.”
?????????????????????????? pic.twitter.com/jslBUnguKO
— Art Candee ???? (@ArtCandee) September 21, 2024
ETA: (from the comedy-classics vault)
Trump is going to put himself on a postage stamp next. It will be a flop because everyone will spit on the wrong side.
— Sanho Tree (@SanhoTree) September 24, 2024
Always be grifting!
Rusty
Leave it to the Trumps to figure out how to convert campaign donations into personal cash. If the Melania payme to stand expect other candidates to start paying their families for appearances. It will be the loophole for straight up bribery, even better then Supreme Court approved gratuities after the fact. Can a politician pay themselves to appear for their own campaign? We will soon find out!
eclare
@Rusty:
When was the last time we saw Usha? Is she still alive?
columbusqueen
It’s only Melania being true to form; if you want anything from her, you gotta pay. Guess we all know how broke Donny is now, since she won’t campaign with him.
Jay
@columbusqueen:
Same price as in town, $20.
eclare
@Jay:
Oh my.
Yutsano
Wait Wait Wait…
Melania did two speeches for the Log Cabin Republicans (spit), the organisation didn’t pay for them, and no one knows for sure who actually made the payments.
Did anyone bother to check if the payments were denominated in rubles?
NotMax
@Yutsano
Or dogecoin.
//
NotMax
@Yutsano
If they’re really true to you know who they ought to change the name of the organization to Twig Cabin Republicans.
//
NotMax
Have not seen any report of it (granted, have not looked for one) — wonder if any of those fugly sneakers have actually shipped.
Baud
I read that Trump proposed a 10% cap on credit card interest. I’m not sure even his MAGA faithful will believe he’s serious.
Steve in the ATL
@Baud: I’ve been running up my credit card bills in anticipation of this relief. Thank you, my orange god!
ETA: forgot to address him as “sir”!
Uncle Cosmo
Ha! two aancient and venerable joke punchlines in the first 4 posts. I heard the first as a Soviet joke from the Brezhnev era re new stamps. The second, much older, featured a young priest posted near NYC and his first foray into town and – um, I’ll leave it right there to avoid the wrath of any Catholics onsite.
Ten Bears
I want to know where they’re gonna’ go … the list of countries he (they) cannot is long
I used to entertain the pleasant wish to see the bastards stripped of everything. Every one of them everything: assets, bank accounts, credit line, wallet, pocket-change; shoes, belt, neck-tie, car keys, cell phones, credit cards, citizenships … everything. And then marched naked down Fifth Avenue to awaiting repurposed oil tankers to carry them all away to whomever will have them. Round them up, stuff them into cattle-cars, at gun-point if need be, and ‘escort’ them (for their safety) to the concentration camps at the border where they can drink toilet water awaiting exile … but seriously, who would have them?
Putin might give them a busted gun and send them to the western front but otherwise they sold out their country, who could ever trust them. I fear we are stuck with them …
Harrison Wesley
@NotMax: Yes – a while back I saw a young, pot-bellied, bald, white dude wearing a pair at the downtown Sarasota bus transfer.
Jeffg166
@Harrison Wesley:
Maybe he was homeless and got them for free.
Princess
Evidently his campaign has informed the media that Donald doesn’t do many events any more because he’s too old and tired. I’m sure there will be 192 articles about that telling him to drop out by the weekend.
Baud
Via reddit
Gvg
@Harrison Wesley: could be counterfeit though. Trump chaos out to make it attractive to cheap knockoffs. His supporters like to brag but many are as cheap as he is or not as rich. It amuses me to think so anyway. Also they are probably more efficient at shipping than Donald.
Harrison Wesley
@Jeffg166: If so, I’m sure Trump claimed a yooge tax write-off for his charitable donation.
Harrison Wesley
@Gvg: I still haven’t paid a visit to the Trump merch store that I pass when I’m going into Sarasota. Not that I would buy anything there.
NeenerNeener
@NotMax: Here in the middle of Virginia the local Fox station runs ads for “Trump Town” stores, now at 3 locations! And they advertise the hideous sneakers. I have no idea if the stores are actually owned by Trump or if some other grifters are making bank on him.
hueyplong
@NeenerNeener: There seems to be a repulsive Trump Town takeover of Franklin County on US 220 south of Roanoke.
NeenerNeener
@hueyplong: Yep, that’s them.
K-Mo
I don’t know if we can draw anything from this sell off. Would anyone be surprised if it turned out they had been selling artwork off the walls of the White House the entire time they were there?
Ramalama
@Harrison Wesley: ugggghhh. There’s an Actual merch store of Trump shit? Do you have to suppress the urge to throw eggs at it?
E.
@Baud: This is really awful. The State-approved textbook says nothing about contraception and urges students to be chaperoned to prevent STDs. How do these people win elections?
Falling Diphthong
@Ten Bears: Venezuela.
Source: Trump has said this multiple times. He is taking Elon and a host from Newsmax. (Though the latter seemed to be more umm-sure-ing him.)
Baud
@E.:
By doing what DeSantis is doing.
Betty Cracker
I’ve seen reports here and there about the NFT, coin, etc., grifting, but I wish it were more prominently covered so we could be sure that the “undecided” morons who will ultimately decide this election know about it. The whole thing is shockingly tacky.
LAC
@Steve in the ATL: Be sure to have tears running down your eyes.🙂
Falling Diphthong
It’s funny. I’ve long maintained that the expectations of “spouse of candidate” should be “don’t get involved in any scandals.” The need to put one’s own life on hold to campaign with one’s spouse seems to nod to an era of royalty.
But now that Usha and Melania are doing it, I’ve gotta say it does not look like they are all that into their spouses’ schtick.
Jeffro
What is it? Literally just the “when a man and a woman love each other very much…” talk? That’s the whole ‘course’?
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊 😊 😊
Ken
Except it’s abstinence-only, so “when a man and a woman love each other very much, they don’t have sex”.
The really chilling part is that the list of banned words includes “abuse, consent, domestic violence”.
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Baud
@Ken:
Should be a mandatory course for some reporters.
zhena gogolia
Please talk me down from the NYT front page. “Trump ahead in three key states that Biden won in 2020.” I can’t even read it.
rikyrah
The rubes be rubing 😒😒
marklar
@Baud: “All districts are now required to promote abstinence, exclude consent, and remove any pictures of reproductive organs.”
How much do you want to bet that some of his allies are investing in day-care centers next to high schools, as well as antibiotics and retrovirals!
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
The poll they commissioned shows Harris down and now the NYT is going to flog that story. There is nothing to talk down. Either their poll reflects reality or it doesn’t. Just like any other poll.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud: To me, it’s not just the impact on content that is not going to be taught, it’s the process. All those hundreds (thousands) of educators and administrators much send their plans to Gestapo HQ for “approval,” and worse, out of cycle. It’s another show of fascist power.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: I’ve cooled on following the state-poll aggregator websites but one thing they did do was keep people from obsessing on the most extreme outlier polls (good or bad). News outlets do these stories where they construct a narrative around their own poll and it ignores the fact that it’s just one poll.
This thing seems to be an outlier. But how the aggregate of polls reflects reality, who knows. Of course, coverage of polls can also *affect* the race.
Ken
@Falling Diphthong: Well, Melania’s busy promoting her book, which apparently involves reminding everyone she did nude photos.
I think we debated in 2020, and maybe even 2016, whether she was completely uninterested in her husband’s campaign, or actively sabotaging it.
zhena gogolia
@Matt McIrvin:
Similar to how coverage of a debate can affect the race.
Baud
The other day I was looking at polling at the eve of the 2020 election, and while 538 predicted a Biden win, the individual polls that they used to compose the aggregate were all over the place in terms of the actual numbers they came up with.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
I think even the honest polls are guessing somewhat more that average about who’s going to turn out.
cmorenc
@zhena gogolia:
Not to fall prey to the fallacy of trying to “unskew the polls” with rose-colored glasses, but can’t help noticing the contradiction that the poll in question has the D Senate Candiate Gallago ahead but Harris behind?
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Or coverage of the economy can affect voter perception about the economy.
I would say many of us here are past the point where we consider the NYT and other mainstream outlets benign. But we’re still a pretty small minority of liberals.
Baud
@cmorenc:
That was true with Biden too, but the excuse then was Biden was too old.
That said, cross over votes are a thing.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: It’s all they can ever do. We’re in an uncharted situation here where the turnout models probably aren’t accurate but we don’t know how they’re inaccurate or even in what direction.
State poll aggregation was amazingly good at calling the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and you can even go back and make an argument that the few people doing it in 2004 did really well with that one. But 2016 illustrated the pitfall–you can have a big systematic error affecting all the polls, and you really aren’t able to call it in advance.
Ohio Mom
@NeenerNeener: The Cincinnati newspaper featured a newly opened Trump store in a suburban strip mall. It’s not anywhere near me or my usual routes so I don’t expect to see it in person.
The story is, a would-be entrepreneur decided that this was a gaping hole in the local market. Says something about him and his customers that none of the money exchanged will actually support Trump and his campaign. That seems fitting to me somehow.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
One of the pitfalls of being the pro-science party is falling for the quasi-religious belief that everything is easily solvable through the application of rational procedures
ETA: With regard to 2016, I recall the late polls showed the Comey effect. Kind of makes you wonder how accurate the polls would have been if he hadn’t intervened.
Ohio Mom
@NotMax: If any of those fugly sneakers have shipped, I’m guessing the purchasers are treating them like collectibles. They are safe from being worn and dirtied on the street. They are on display.
Well, maybe the purchasers have plans to wear them to the inauguration.
Kosh III
Maybe the Quisling Cabin Club should spend some of that money trying to support equality in red state theocracies.
TBone
A little cheerful antidote from the recent past to remind us that lightening up is ok. It’s a good thing (like Martha says). Keep yer chin up!
https://x.com/maddenifico/status/1834274585836949875
lowtechcyclist
@zhena gogolia:
I thought Josh Marshall had some intelligent thoughts about this (gift link):
I think the best way to make sense of it is to compare each pollster with its own previous results for this race, to see if there’s been any significant change, keeping in mind the stated margin of error.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Ohio Mom: I picture this Trump merchandise being unearthed in gramp’s attic someday by descendants who are as horrified as if they’d found nazi flags.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: Actual science, as opposed to science fandom, involves honestly characterizing your ignorance. It’s THE distinguishing characteristic really.
The Comey letter definitely shook things up right at the end in 2016, but the race was already tightening at that point, and I recall the really striking thing about the results was that the systematic poll errors were regional–for some reason, Trump did considerably better than expected around the Great Lakes region, and really nowhere else. The state polls in the South and West were spot on. But it was that northern Blue Wall that broke.
Why there specifically? Dunno. For some reason Trump was able to turn out a lot of lower-propensity voters who hadn’t figured in the models just in that region.
The turnout models for 2020 baked that in and they were better. But there’s reason to believe everything’s probably up in the air this year. Trump’s bros might be even more motivated by a black woman to vote against; but, also, we have lower-propensity voters (young women particularly) who have obvious reasons to turn out. How will it shake out? The only honest answer is that nobody can say.
zhena gogolia
My theory of the electorate is that they are f–ing idiots, misogynists, and racists.
Chief Oshkosh
@Baud:
I’m trying to grow that minority. I sent some of the recent comparisons of headlines/reporting on various Dem vs Rep stories as covered by TFNYT to family and friends. At least three “get” it and another two are wavering. As one of the wrote to the group “Once you see it, you can’t unsee it.” The latest epiphanies center around how the Trump campaign is murmuring about how Dear Leader isn’t doing various appearances because he’s too old, and yet there’s crickets from the TFNYT and others.
lowtechcyclist
@NeenerNeener:
So where did you finally settle? I know you were talking about Lynchburg at one point.
Chief Oshkosh
@Matt McIrvin:
My hypothesis is that it was due to global warming. For once it was warm enough in early November for those people to be able to get out of their driveways and get to the polls.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
I don’t get it. How is having someone watching the sex supposed to prevent STDs?
Matt McIrvin
@Chief Oshkosh: One of my friends recently started ranting to me out of the blue about how the New York Times has gone fash, so I guess he gets it.
Baud
@Chief Oshkosh:
You’re doing the Lord’s work. Thank you.
Baud
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Heh.
TBone
— Gilda Radner
🎶🥰
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=etviGf1uWlg
Chief Oshkosh
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
Jewish space lasers.
Obviously.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@zhena gogolia: Check today’s Electoral-Vote.com map, which doesn’t give Harris any of those three states (AZ, NC, and GA are all listed as “barely Republican”), but still shows her over the 270 threshold without them.
Mel
@TBone: Thanks for re-posting this.
Made my morning.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
Based on US history, the most any candidate can get is 60% in a blowout election. So the difference between tied and a historical blowout is 10 points. And what’s the margin of error on most polls? Between 3 and 4%? Polling isn’t the woo, but there’s only so much you can get from it in any election that’s remotely close.
TBone
@Mel: yours in service,
TBone 💙
Fuck The Narrative, we’ll make our own stories.
Princess
@zhena gogolia: The election is very close. Whoever wins on Election Day, it will be close. Some polls show us up, some down.
Anne Laurie
That was a genuine concern when the Trumpists refused to work with Biden staffers after the 2020 election! Fortunately, the National Archives keeps a *very* detailed list of the valuable materials on loan to the White House, and made a public point of having staffers standing outside every WH door during Biden’s inauguration transfer-of-power. ‘Souvenirs’ were no doubt smuggled out by the entitled remoras surrounding TFG, but anything valuable enough to be worth Trump / Melania / Jarvanka trying to resell would’ve been too hot for even a Middle Eastern emir to bother accepting as collateral.
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: The increasing polarization of the electorate and the hardening of regional variations in that polarization may also mean that it’s much more difficult to get an Electoral College blowout even with a healthy popular-vote win (and the probability of a split between the Electoral College and popular-vote winner is up–this is something that I thought of as a wild hypothetical with examples way back in the mists of history, then it happened twice in living memory, both times with disastrous results).
I’ve been wondering about what happens if it becomes the norm that the Democratic candidate can lose even with a landslide-level PV majority. We might not be there yet, but who knows
(edit: what might work *against* that nightmare scenario is just the punishing rise in real-estate prices in the bluest of coastal states, driving people into the hinterlands. Republicans tout California’s stagnant population as evidence that liberalism has made the state a hellhole, but it might bite them in the ass long-term.)
Harrison Wesley
@Ramalama: My entire bus ride from where I live going south on Route 41 to Sarasota has become….odd…..over the last couple of years. First up is the building that is/was Kennedy ’24 local HQ; even before he joined Trump, it already had a ‘For Rent’ sign on it. Make of that what you will.
Next, a bit further on the other side of the road is the ‘Trump Merch’ store. My inclination to stop in cooled after I suggested to LOML in Sarasota that I could pick her up something there – she called me some very unpleasant things.
And then, still on the same side of the road, I pass New College, perhaps DeSantis’ greatist triumph in the conquest of Florida’s public university system. He took the state’s ‘public Ivy’ and made it into ‘public Hillsdale.’ You can get a feel for the quality of education there by knowing that Chris Rufo is on the board.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
I don’t see it. When the EC doesn’t match with the popular vote, it’s because we lose swing states by a small amount. It’s unlikely that a large popular vote for Dems would be confined to massive improvements only in non-swing states.
Wapiti
@Dorothy A. Winsor: My parents were antique dealers and had a story like that. They were at an estate sale related to one of the old rich families in SF Bay area. Someone opens a trunk, paws through it, pulls out and holds up a Klan robe and says “What are you asking for this?”
Matt McIrvin
@Baud: One way it could happen is if transitory Republican majorities in the close states all end up cementing their dominance by farcically rigging the elections there, while Democratic support rises nationwide, but is reflected in election results only in the deep blue areas.
Chris Johnson
Part of being at war with the US and supporting a civil war and the conquering of the country by insurgents is manufacturing consent for this by putting out narratives that the ‘real America’ profoundly supports fascism and a sundowning nightmare criminal asshole they’ve never met, no matter what he says or does.
This ‘real America’ does not have to exist to be useful. The point is that to be at war with the US under this plan REQUIRES that nobody ever be allowed to challenge the received wisdom that yes in fact America is fash and also wants Johnny Carson to be put back in charge of the Tonight Show.
The point is that you’re not allowed to challenge the obvious lie. To challenge it would be to undermine the necessary narrative that supports a much tinier hostile force hoping to conquer the country. If somehow they manage to conquer the country they have to be able to fall back on claims of legitimacy.
That’s all this is. We’re not going to see reality until 2025 or so. It’s too important to manufacture the unreality that Trump is evenly matched with, y’know, real politicians.
Mel
This has been my “keep on fighting” song this year. We are ALL the fire:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8hkmuTvkp_s
Matt McIrvin
@Chris Johnson: You know, I kind of liked Johnny Carson. Reminded me of my dad.
(David Letterman was his protegé back when Letterman was considered a way-out-there weirdo doing subversive anti-comedy.)
Geminid
President Biden will deliver his final address to the UN this morning. I think I’d watch it if I had TV.
Yesterday, Biden welcomed the UAE President to the White House. Mohammed bin Zayed is a healthy-looking 61 year old and a major actor in Middle Eastern politics. The Biden administration has been at odds with bin Zayed’s over the civil war in Sudan, but the joint statement issued after the two Presidents met held some promise that the UAE is ready to help settle this catastrophic power struggle.
The UAE President’s full name consists of 10 familiy titles preceded by 10 bins, so people often call him “MBZ” for short. He became de facto president of the Emirates in 2014 when his older brother suffered a stroke. The brother died in 2022.
MBZ has been a cultural and social modernizer at home and an assertive regional leader abroad. He has also fostered the growth of Dubai as the major commercial center in the region.
I found it interesting that in 2014, when he instituted universal military service for UAE citizens, MBZ sent his own daughters to boot camp. I wonder what kind of Dad jokes the other recruits came up with.
The UAE President also met with Vice President Harris yesterday, and the White put out a seperate summary of their discussions to go along with pictures of the two sitting across from each other, with a fireplace in the background. I thought of this as a visible demonstration of the foreign policy baton being passed from Biden to Harris.
MattF
Re: polls. I always remind myself of two basic statistical adages. First, ‘Random error is dealt with systematically, systematic error is dealt with randomly’. Second, ‘Random error has all possible correlations’.
ETA: Also, note ‘The Law of Truly Large Numbers’.
Matt McIrvin
@MattF: Those are good, I could have used them when my daughter was taking AP Stats.
Matt McIrvin
@lowtechcyclist: I think he’s got it right. Despite the NYT’s recent tendencies I have no reason to believe that the NYT/Siena poll is dishonestly constructed, but their sampling and weighting has been assuming a Trumpier electorate than the other big polls all year long.
One of the worst things we can do is try to reconstruct trends by comparing results from poll A one week with poll B the next, when they’re making radically different assumptions. You’re mostly seeing the difference between the two polls.
Jackie
@zhena gogolia: Quit reading polls! Seriously. Follow trends, they are more reliable.
Baud
@Matt McIrvin:
The poll might not be dishonest. Their stories about the polling are another matter. I haven’t read them, but I assume those stories don’t explain to the reader that the poll assumes a more Republican turnout than other polls.
Kosh III
Re: Polls
Dewey Wins!
Geminid
@Jackie: I agree that trend is some of the really useful information we get from polls, particularly when it’s the same polling outfit’s work month over month or week over week.
Polls are also valuable for their demographic information because the demographic makeup of states and districts conditions their politics. And polling can be instructive as t demographic trend when compared election cycle over cycle and decade over decade.
WaterGirl
@zhena gogolia: one of the podcasts I listened to last night talked about that poll and it’s the same poll where Harris was ahead by 5 points 2 weeks ago. So they’re saying that this one is within the margin of error of the last one. it’s it’s hard to imagine that he’s up 10 points more from the last one that was so recent. so don’t worry about that Poll. Just keep on doing what you’re doing. That’s my advice.
It’s more likely that they’ve changed their secret sauce and the change has nothing to do with how anybody’s doing.
WaterGirl
@marklar: wry chuckle. You are so right
2liberal
@zhena gogolia: re: 3 states, two are AZ and GA and are not in dispute, trump does lead in both. Not sure what the third one is.
artem1s
The other day someone likened TCF’s campaign to characters in Glengarry Glen Ross. But honestly I think TCF’s campaign is a lot more like Death of a Salesman
“And when I saw that, I realized that selling was the greatest career a man could want. ’Cause what could be more satisfying than to be able to go, at the age of eighty-four, into twenty or thirty different cities, and pick up a phone, and be remembered and loved and helped by so many different people?”
Willy Loman
Lacuna Synecdoche
CNN via Anne Laurie @ Top:
A bit late to the party here, but I gotta ask: Why the hell would anyone pay $237,500 to hear Melania Trump plagiarize Michelle Obama in a bad accent?
scav
@Ken: Have to wonder a (wee) (sick) bit if that’s not the FL tourist board or state CoC working up their little campaign to attract the pedophile dollar. “Florida! We keep the young’uns dumb so why not come?!”
gwangung
@WaterGirl: Yes, but a lot of the cross tabs really don’t pass the sniff test for me. E.g., Any poll that reflects 20%+ blacks for Trump (with Harris in the race) doesn’t pass it for me…particularly if a) it changes within the same poll or b) it’s wildly out of line with other polls.
Betty
@Baud: Just when you thought Vance wss the weirdest one!
Uncle Cosmo
@Kosh III: Re: Dewey Wins –
That was the second major fail of opinion research[1], and IIRC it happened because the major pollsters stopped polling a couple of weeks before the election, thinking “the little man on top of the wedding cake” had it wrapped up when a large fraction of the electorate was still undecided[2]. They assumed these voters would break roughly as the rest of the electorate when in fact they broke decisively for Truman. Never again!
[1] The first being the Literary Digest poll of 1936 that predicted Alf Landon would defeat FDR.
[2] Something on the order of Dewey 40%, Truman 35%, 25% undecided.