I don’t trust any of the polls regardless which direction they go and who they show on top. I just have no faith in any of them. I don’t think any of them have very good models, I don’t think they have figured out how to get around no one having landlines, and I don’t think they know how to deal with the under 30 set who will simply not answer their cellphone if they do not recognize the number and even then half the under 30 crowd acts like you shot at them when you call instead of texting. And even if they do get through to someone they want, self report data is only good if they understand the question and are willing to tell you the truth. And I just don’t think they know what is going on this election and the Biden/Harris switch has changed the currents so much they don’t know how to compensate.
So I am ignoring them and just keeping on doing whatever the Ohio County Dems need me to do.
This is actually not just good advice for election and polls but life in general. Just ignore the bullshit and do what you’re fucking supposed to do.
I am so ready for this motherfucker to go away:
Vice President Kamala Harris’ vow to gut the Senate’s filibuster rule to pass a bill codifying abortion rights has cost her an endorsement from a leading Senate moderate: Joe Manchin.
The West Virginia independent, one of the staunchest defenders of the potent delay tactic in the Senate, told CNN on Tuesday that he wouldn’t back her candidacy now — despite signaling earlier this month he was getting ready to do so.
“Shame on her,” Manchin, who is retiring at year’s end, said in the Capitol. “She knows the filibuster is the Holy Grail of democracy. It’s the only thing that keeps us talking and working together. If she gets rid of that, then this would be the House on steroids.”
Now that Harris has vowed to gut the filibuster on this issue, Manchin said he wouldn’t back her for president.
Oh fuck way all the way off. The filibuster isn’t the preservation of democracy, it’s the fucking preservation of the status quo, whatever that may be. And for far too long, the status quo has been right wing bullshit foisted on the nation because of the profoundly undemocratic nature of the Senate and the electoral college. What the filibuster is is the preservation of the tyranny of the minority that has been decimating the nation for decades. We don’t need any more affirmative action like shitty little states like Wyoming, WV, Idaho filled with backwards ass white people deciding we can’t have clean air and water and public services because reasons and deciding who and when we can fuck and what we can do with our bodies because of invisible sky jeebus.
Fuck Manchin. And as a side note, with him as an independent and his lackeys and acolytes no longer having a stranglehold on the state Democratic party, the Dems in this state are as motivated and enthusiastic as I have ever seen them. Will we win in November? Probably not. But change does not happen over night and at least now we have unleashed the creativity and passion of a lot of people who were just sick of the Manchin/Justice/Earl Ray stranglehold.
Go fuck off to your houseboat and pound some beers with Lindsay and the boys.
I have been agitated all day and bruising for a fight with anyone and anything. Just all around in a foul mood, like an enraged bull that just wants to gore something- anything. Think I am going to go have an apple and watch the rest of No Country for Old Men, which I started during dinner. It’s only on Prime for another week so if you are in the mood to watch it do it now.
War for Ukraine Day 944: Russia Continues To Pound Kharkiv with Glide Bombs While Trump Trashes Zelenskyy
alquitti
the under 30 set who will simply not answer their cellphone if they do not recognize the number
I’m part of the over 70 set and I never answer the phone if I don’t recognize the number. And I will do what I’m supposed to do.
japa21
Tell us how you really feel about Manchin. Don’t hold back this time.
Baud
Red state Dems are heroes. Glad to hear about the renewed enthusiasm.
Villago Delenda Est
@alquitti: Moi aussi, although I’m part of the 60-70 set.
Sister Golden Bear
Can we trebuchet Manchin into the space gulag? Asking for me.
Villago Delenda Est
@Sister Golden Bear: With no parachute, golden or otherwise. Same applies to his predator daughter.
Piety, keep me strong
Testosterone poisoning perhaps?
A famous author once said “A few women once a month act like men do all the time.”
Baud
Thanks for the movie rec. I’ve been wanting to see that.
matt
Manchin’s retiring. He can shut his hole.
Gretchen
The media wants a tight race. If they report that Harris is way ahead nobody will read them.
scav
@Villago Delenda Est: We could work up quite a set of the over-30 not answering phone set. I’m in your tranche and often don’t even pick up unexpected calls from numbers I know. If it’s important, they’ll leave a message and if it’s really important, they would have already texted.
skerry
Manchin also endorsed Hogan for MD Senate
Redshift
Thanks, Joe, that’s about the best argument for killing the filibuster Kamala could have asked for!
MattF
I think most people, regardless of age, have figured out that answering a phone call from an unknown caller is just an error. Poll response rates are in the single digit percentages, so all the sampling is biased, and all the error estimates are uncertain, to put it as mildly as possible. Every number you see in a poll is uncertain, including all the estimated uncertainties.
My sister sometimes answers her phone and says she’s often tempted to then ask the scammy caller ‘Does your mother know what you do for a living?’
Scott S.
I’m with you John. And don’t get me fucking started on the Mets tonight either. Might need to self medicate.
Jay
https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/the-press-is-failing-us-just-when
eclare
Pay attention to the sound in No Country For Old Men. That movie won several Oscars for sound, and it is amazing if you pay attention to it.
Especially in the motel room and the stash in the vent.
eclare
@Baud:
See it! It is so good. The actors and the Coen brothers at their best.
lamh47
@alquitti: listen, I’m over 40 and I’ve NEVER been one to answer unknown number calls.
Jay
I only pick up “unknown caller” calls when I am expecting a phone interview or a medical call. Everybody else is on my contacts list.
All of the rest are simply scammers.
Baud
I’m so old, I never even answered telegrams.
lamh47
John…I want to diversify ur tv portfolio like I did for some music.
I’ve already said, but check out How To Die Alone on HULU. Like I said in the previous open thread, it’s my latest obssession.
EM
As someone who recently worked in cold calling, I can tell you firsthand that getting people to answer their phones is nearly impossible. I’m talking about days where I’d make 80 calls and only get one person to pick up. It got me wondering: how on earth are pollsters getting enough responses to be accurate
99% of us don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. So how are pollsters reaching a diverse group of people, convincing them to participate, and getting enough responses to be statistically significant? It seems like the old methods just don’t fit with how we communicate now. I’m not saying polls are completely useless, but maybe we need to take them with a bigger grain of salt or find new ways to gauge public opinion.
Melancholy Jaques
Everyone – okay not everyone but an awful lot of people – has got their sensitive parts in knots because the polls don’t show Harris/Walz with a ten point lead. First, the polls are never going to show that. Second, and most important, is that the fact that they are more or less tied is nothing short of miraculous. Considering all that happened this summer? We are doing great!!!
Harris, Walz, and every Democrat except Joe Manchin is working hard. We have to do the same. We will win if we do.
Baud
@Melancholy Jaques:
Manchin is no longer a Democrat.
lamh47
@Jay: I mean the ONLY time I take off my Iphone “screen unknown caller” function is if I have a package delivery or if I have some call I’m waiting on, but mostly if I can I try to add important numbers to my contacts so I can ignore the rest!
My thing is, if someone wants to truly reach me, they’ll leave a voicemail.
lamh47
I think the “unknown caller” thing is important this election and it’s very smart for Harris/Walz camp to be doing so much non-traditional media.
The voters who can be a “blue wall” vs the majority chump voters are the ones who are not answering calls from unknown callers!
Steve LaBonne
Oh no, she’s doomed without the all-important Manchin endorsement. LOL.
lamh47
Harrison Wesley
@eclare: I like creepy villains, and Javier Bardem plays it right up there with the creepiest I’ve ever seen.
Villago Delenda Est
Which will never happen. It’s paramount at the Vichy Times to do two things: defend the parasite overclass, and defend the horse race narrative Truth has NOTHING to do with these formulations.
eclare
@Harrison Wesley:
Yep! With that bad haircut!
Call it, friendo.
Jay
@EM:
@Melancholy Jaques:
The NYT/Siena “poll” did the same “focus group” BS that the FTFNYT pulls all the time, where their 7 “Independents” making up the “panel” are later identified by others as 1 Green Party Chair, 1 Libertarian Party Campaign manager, 4 local ReThug leaders, and 1 Jan. 6th convict.
Steve LaBonne
@lamh47: Bingo. No voicemail, well I guess I really didn’t need to talk to you. (And I have never gotten a cell phone call from a pollster to my knowledge. I would hang up if I answered one. We got rid of our landline, not paying for buggy whip technology.)
KrackenJack
Dean had the right idea with the 50 state strategy, but the Remedial College forces some tough choices. I hope this election reinvigorates several red state Democratic parties. A little national support / tough love could help keep them functional.
lamh47
Sigh…why da hell would you need an arsenal just to go to fuq’n ChickFilA…ugh…fuq’n ‘gun-holes!
brendancalling
Feeling this post. I have needed—not wanted, but NEEDED—for the past few days—to strangle some people for the past few days.
Thank heavens for my backyard.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Just don’t use it for hairstyling advice.
Leto
I read that as “WV impediment” and I see no reason to change that thought.
lamh47
@Steve LaBonne: right! fuq’n spam “collection” accounts sure will leave a damn voicemail…smh
And I just block ’em all!
Gretchen
I’m 70+ and don’t answer calls that I don’t recognize. My phone doesn’t even ring the vast majority of them through. I had trouble getting calls from my doctor since the number wasn’t in my address book. I delete all political texts without reading them. How do they do these polls?
Keithly
@MattF: I sometimes answer spam calls with, “Albany County Sherriff’s Office: Fraud Division,” using a bored, flat affect. That often gets them to hang up right quick.
lamh47
I believe Chump is doing on a couple of days before.
Jackie
@alquitti:
I’m waaay over 30 and never answer an unidentified phone number. And if the caller doesn’t leave a message… that number is blocked and deleted.
If pollsters want my input, ID the number as “Pollster so and so” OR leave a message with callback info or a website with poll questions.
I do get occasional text polls, usually re state candidates and I do reply to those.
National pollsters should text, not call.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
You are correct, sir! I forgot about that. It’s been a very long summer for me.
Jay
@lamh47:
Because we live in a pretty new, large apartment tower, guests, food and package deliveries go through the “call box”, which has it’s own phone number, which shows on our phones as “front door”.
They can be “buzzed in”, and they need to be, as the elevator needs to be coded for your floor, but I always meet them in the lobby, as there have been issues with people who should not have access, getting access through fakery.
cain
@alquitti:
I also don’t answer numbers I don’t recognize.
Chigail
Thanks for the heads up on No Country. I need to check something from it.
Jay
@brendancalling:
Is your backyard large enough for all the bodies?
cain
@Baud:
Not even a thumbs 👍 emoji ?
jonas
@Baud: I’ve thrown back aged, faded, seaweed-caked bottles washed up on the beach with yellowed parchment in them if I don’t recognize the script.
Jackie
@skerry:
The moment his term expires, I fully expect him to re-register as the R he’s been shifting to. Refusing to endorse Harris, yet endorsing Logan says it all.
David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch
@cain: He doesn’t want to get sued for trademark infringement by Siskel & Ebert
moonbat
@Harrison Wesley: My theory is Bardem’s character is Death itself with his “Did you see me?” and “You didn’t see me.”
In other words, if you see him, you’re toast.
BQuimby
Here is a cathartic one when in a foul mood…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CHKn-yDCE2w
sukabi
@EM: chances are they’re making up their numbers… or using some AI model to fabricate them.
Walker
As far as I am concerned, all polls are either scams or right-wing push polls and I block any number trying to poll me. I swear I got three (3!) such texts today.
Jay
@Jackie:
I clear my call log often, but I only block numbers that belong to ex-people.
The reason I don’t block, is because a bunch of those spam/scam callers are using a “spoofing” service that can mimic a local number or actual “authentic” phone numbers.
Ohio Mom
There are a few people in my life who still call me on the landline (which we keep because it’s part of the the internet package, don’t ask me, Ohio Dad took care of that), so occasionally I get a call that is a poll and not my sister or friend in Ithaca.
Lately the polls are all automated and usually after a minute or two I am out of patience with “if very certain, press one, if somewhat certain, press two, if somewhat uncertain…” I don’t mind a person I can chat up but it’s masochistic to put up with a telephone tree that doesn’t have a doctor’s office staff member or some other essential contact at the end.
BR
I got a text message poll request today. I sent “stop” and deleted it.
Harrison Wesley
@moonbat: I can see that. Stunning performance.
Scout211
@Baud: @jonas:
But those cute little carrier pigeons were so hard to resist back in the day. The tiny little messages wrapped around the tiny bird legs. I went for it every time. And it usually was a spam message. I never learn.
But they were so cute!
HumboldtBlue
@MattF:
There are a few YouTube channels that take on the scammers, and they’re pretty wild. Te scammers get scammed by people far better at computers than they are, and it can be hilarious.
Jackie
YAY! Finally!!!
Mai Naem mobile
@skerry: i saw that but I think if anything that’s going to motivate Dems to more strongly support Alsobrooks.
lamh47
BILL NYE!!
Jay
@Scout211:
And edible.
Trivia Man
@Jay: If I do happen to answer and it is a sales cold call or anything remotely fishy I just hang up. I used to say NO THANK YOU or something but now I just hang up while they are still talking.
Although about 15 years back I enjoyed the conversation.
I am calling to rise money for the policeman’s benevolent fund (or something cop related)
Are you a policeman?
I am raising money for the blah blah blah
Are you a policeman? After asking about 5 or 6 times he eventually started getting pissy and said he wasn’t but he was calling on their behalf. I told him “Our sheriff said in the paper this week that these are scams and we shouldn’t donate.” (He did have an op ed that said exactly that.)
He kept trying to get back to getting money but I just repeated a variation on those two lines until he got pissed and hung up. But aren’t a policeman. You said you aren’t.
Jackie
@Jay:
I haven’t experienced that – YET.🤞🏻
Trivia Man
@lamh47: Who is the candidate? I am blocked from x links
HumboldtBlue
@Scott S.:
As a proud supporter of the 2024 National League East Champion Philadelphia Phillies, may I have a chuckle at your expense?
jonas
@alquitti: Never, ever, ever, answer fucking random numbers. Always spam or scammers. My motto, which has gotten me through life thus far: “If it’s important, they’ll leave a message.” And, fortunately, you can spot scammy voicemails a mile away.
That said, legit pollsters *usually* have identifying info when they call and if I’m not completely tied up with something at the moment, I try to answer and do the poll because I know it’s important. If polling outfits are spamming local numbers and trying to call people that way, it’s no wonder they don’t get anyone to pick up.
Kayla Rudbek
Why did today totally feel like a second Monday?
At least I managed to start packing for my weekend trip to ride the Sea Gull Century (starting and ending at Salisbury University, it may be the only university/college that runs a bike ride as a fundraising event). I’m not sure whether we will do the full century ride or whether we will go metric and do 62.2 miles = 100 km. So making sure that specific bike shorts and gloves are packed; there are certain pairs that can handle that distance and certain pairs that cannot .
And I started working on cleaning up my home office, so I found two books for my godson and five different choices of yarn for that Perspective shawl. The first decision is which color combination, the second decision is whether I go with light or dark as the main color. Two of my color combination choices are blue/gold, one is light gray/huckleberry purple, one is charcoal gray/antique brass, one is blue/gray. My mom is not being much help, as none of the color choices involve her favorite color, teal.
I have also been finding various knitting and embroidery projects in progress, and at this rate I might find the solution to Grand Unified Theory.
Scout211
Here’s the Thread reader version
KrackenJack
@Kayla Rudbek:
That is unique AFAIK. I was a charity ride team captain for many years in Pennsylvania and California. I did a variety of annual events. Mostly charity and a few club. They are good for getting me to do real training miles rather than just errands.
Splitting Image
@brendancalling:
I know how you feel.
If I were less of an introvert, I’d be a serial killer.
–ly Ballou
The State of Missouri executed an innocent man today, against the wishes of the prosecutor and the victim’s family and aided and abetted by the rogue SCOTUS.
“Pro-life”, my pimpled ass.
sab
@Keithly: What a great idea. I have been getting weird calls from a woman with a foreign accent claiming she is from ICE. I always hang up and block them because why would ICE or any government agency be calling me. Your approach sounds more effective.
GrueBleen
That’s the real John Cole we all know and love !
Jay
@Jackie:
I got a call and a text about a year ago from “my Bank”. Other than the content of the call and the text, it seemed legit, right local branch phone number, ( error #1, our account isn’t local, it’s in another city), right local transit number, ( almost, just the last 4 digits of the transit number for the local branch). Somehow T got the exact same call and text message.
Somebody did their homework, almost.
lamh47
Star Trek actors on Geeks & Nerds for Harris call right now:
https://www.youtube.com/live/Is876dF_-Ds?si=Epyj_pS4GFcqR-Wx
ETA:Chile…the forever crush I have on Jonathan Frankes…I’m not a fangirl type, but I think if I ever saw him in person, I might just fangirl…LOL
wjca
Well, unless they (radical thought!) moved on to reporting on down ballot races. Might even contribute to an informed electorate. And avoid more embarrassments** like Santos.
** Just to be clear, he is primarily an embarrassment to the Times, since they are the local paper and totally dropped the ball.
Warren Senders
I think MVP was not really fretting too hard about losing the all-important Manchin endorsement.
Geoduck
I do at least read the name when I get an unexpected call, because fairly regularly it’s someone I do need to talk to. Maybe not WANT to talk to, but need…
danielx
Doesn’t strike me as an angst-lessening flick to me, but memory of that movie is growing dim.
lamh47
BTW, Lynda Carter looks FUQ’N FANTASTIC!!
HumboldtBlue
I don’t need gods or lords to be good, family, community and society taught me the social contract, religion played a role, one I found as I got older, was unnecessary, but at least some religious folks are willing to call out Trump and Vance.
Rose Weiss
@alquitti: Yep. me too. I’m over 70. I live in a very remote area, so I still have both a landline and a cell. I don’t answer either one if I don’t recognize the number, and sometimes I don’t answer even if I do recognize it. Send me an email, or a text if it’s really urgent.
wjca
And just how do you expect her to carry West Virginia without it?!?!?
/
RaflW
I found myself having thoughts about the MO governor, AG, and radical SCOTUS six that do not comport with my desire for nonviolence.
I’m just not someone who acts out. But one can see how folks just blatantly denied justice, over and over in predictable, white supremacists patterns, may eventually give up on the MLK Ghandi type paths.
MinuteMan
@lamh47: Eating that food could be life-threatening for folks in their physical condition but I don’t think being armed to the teeth would help them with that.
CaseyL
Thank you, John! I do get nervous around polling, even though I know I shouldn’t.
I read an article recently, can’t remember where, about how the more reputable polling firms are trying to get around the whole nobody-answers-the-phone-anymore problem. Give them some credit, they are diligently trying new things, but a lot of it comes down to self-selection. They’re doing outreach, basically, and asking people who are interested in participating in a political poll to contact *them.*
They get enough people (more than the 900-1200 responses dataset that is, SFAIK, the standard), they can create a model sample, using whatever formula they decide on, so many Dems, so many GOPs, so many people in this or that age range, etc. That’s fine, but it’s still self-selection. And the method is too new for anyone to know how accurate it is.
cain
@RaflW:
Can’t believe they executed an innocent man.
I’m so fucking angry. I’m so fucking sad.
Trivia Man
@Scout211: thank you
hitchhiker
I also saw that Sinema chirped out her thoughts on Harris wanting to axe the filibuster for abortion rights. She thought it was, like, really stoopid, mmkay? Cuz like, DUH, then the Republicans will just pass anything they want first chance they get!
Srsly, that’s how she sounds to me, and that’s really the gist of what she said. The rules are, Democrats must never break with time-honored traditions (like allowing a president to choose a nominee for SCOTUS and expect that nominee to get a vote in the Senate), but Republicans can do whatever they want. It doesn’t seem to have occurred to her that they know this, and that they’ll get rid of the filibuster without pausing to scratch their asses anytime it suits them … and the fact that the Democrats didn’t do it first will just be seen as evidence that Democrats are dumb.
Tony G
Very good analysis as usual — but I would suggest one change. As you point out: “the under 30 set who will simply not answer their cellphone if they do not recognize the number”. That is very true — but I am an old geezer of 68 and for many years I have NEVER answered my cell phone (or my still existing landline) if I do not recognize the caller. I suspect that the vast majority of people of all ages have learned to do that. For at least the past decade just about EVERYBODY’S phone has been under constant assault from automated spam calls, and I think that almost everyone has learned not to pick up calls from “strangers”. To my thinking this is an enormous factor that our incompetent, useless “news media” pretends is not there. Any polls based on phone calls have essentially become useless because PEOPLE DO NOT ANSWER THEIR DAMN PHONES WHEN POLLSTERS CALL. It’s yet another obvious phenomenon that our useless news media ignores.
wjca
@HumboldtBlue:
If it actually happened, Jesus would point out that his biological mother (Mary) and his biological father (Joseph) taught him better than that. So of course he was married (as was usual for a rabbi).
After which he would have some caustic things to say about those who have distorted his teachings into the opposite of what he said.
Rose Weiss
Strictly anecdotal of course, but I’m heartened by seeing commentary from groups like The Bulwark who are Harris/Walz supporting ex-Republicans and Never Trumpers who still hold out hope for their Party. There are apparently a lot of folks like that now – people like Tim Miller, who was a muckety in Jeb Bush’s campaign. Now he’s a fervent supporter of Dem candidates even as he says he disagrees with many policy positions but Democracy’s at stake!
I never thought I’d see a Republican with a conscience so I’m gobsmacked.
munira
I have my phone set up so it doesn’t even ring if it isn’t one of my contacts. It goes straight to voice mail and I’m definitely in the over 70 crowd.
NotMax
I use a VOIP landline without caller ID. ALL incoming calls go first to an answering machine. If I’m nearby, recognize the voice (and wish to speak with whoever it is at that moment) I’lll manually pick up. and converse Not once has anyone who has called me said boo about this method.
frosty
@Kayla Rudbek: Congratulations on tackling the Seagull Century! 100 miles is not an easy ride, but the best thing about the Seagull is that it’s on the Eastern Shore and it’s FLAT!
I’ve done one century just to get it done. It was on a bike tour in 2022 and the day’s ride ended up being 95 miles. I rode back and forth through the state park we were staying at until I got to 100.49.
Done! Never again, I was knackered.
ETA My ride was a 1992 Schwinn CrissCross. My friends all told me it was too heavy but my response was “My weight plus my bike weight is at least 40 pounds less than yours.” True. But longer legs with more muscle would have helped.
wjca
Some incoming calls on my landline get blocked after one ring. But others, even if unknown, I will answer. It’s like this. My brother is in an assisted living facility about an hour away. When something happens (usually minor) that the staff wants me to know about, they call. But frequently on their personal cell phones, rather than the facility’s line. So any unknown number might well be one of those calls.
HumboldtBlue
33 years ago this dropped: A Tribe Called Quest – The Low End Theory
Chet Murthy
@frosty: When I was 24 I did a near-century. Almost all the way around Cayuga Lake. I bonked on the western side coming south, and made it all the way to the bottom, but couldn’t complete the last 3mi home. A friend came and got me in his truck. Sigh. So close. Somehow a century is (was) so much harder than 60mi, 75mi. So much harder. Ah, well.
Kent
Right. If it is important they can leave a voice mail which you can now actually read. Or just text.
The only reason to get you to pick up is if they want something from you like money.
frosty
I’m sorry, but I have to nominate this one!
Kent
The thing is, Republicans don’t actually have any legislative objectives subject to the filibuster in the first place
Tax cuts can get done via reconciliation so no filibuster
SCOTUS judges or any judges don’t get the filibuster
Regulatory repeal (Regulatory Review Act) to repeal acts of the last administration only need 50 votes, no filibuster
Getting courts to toss regulations (Chevron) doesn’t even need Congress.
Repeal of the ACA that fell one vote short with McCain was under reconciliation so no filibuster
They honestly don’t haven’t had any real legislative objective since Bush’s failed social security reform. So the fucking hand-wringing about what the GOP might do is pointless. They aren’t actually interested in legislating
The only one they might want to do that would be subject to the filibuster is a federal abortion ban. But I think that is all talk anyway. And if they really wanted to do it, they would just set aside the filibuster anyway.
Chet Murthy
@Kent: This! I remember when I read somebody pointing this out, and the penny dropped: they have everything they need already!
Anoniminous
@CaseyL:
That is ridiculously absurd. They’ve given-up any pretense of doing Statistical Analysis.
“More reputable” my ass
frosty
@Chet Murthy: I learned about bonking on one of our shorter rides (60-80!) before that and stuffed myself with bagels, fruit, and sandwiches during the day* so it wasn’t a problem.
* Violating my doctor’s advice to cut carbs until A1c got lower. Situations change!
JaySinWA
@Tony G: She-it, people are damn lucky if my cell phone is close enough to answer when I do know who is calling and am willing to talk to them. The land line mostly works for getting the ones we are willing to talk to. /notquiteolderthandirt.
Anoniminous
@frosty:
Seconded.
BR
The remix experts over on TikTok have a new Oprah / Harris one:
https://www.tiktok.com/@casadimusic/video/7416544417693158698
Neal
As someone who has a very nerdy fascination with statistics and how measurements are performed, I simply do not understand how any, and I stress any, phone poll can work in 2024.
Just read through the comments here and every single person gives a hard stop to ever answering a call from an unknown number except in very specific circumstances such as the doctor.
Young people do not answer. Older people do not answer. Who in the blazes then answers their phone? How can one build any type of statistical model from this?
Equally important to me is that even if I did recognize the name of the polling organization, I am far too wary of a scam. After all, the bad guys work on being bad 24/7 and so they might embed an innocuous sounding poll question in there such as “Do you work from home” or something like that.
I think they would be more reliable asking people as they leave the grocery store by having a booth set up with a number of individuals around to give a sense of safety.
I am obviously missing something here. I just don’t know where.
schrodingers_cat
No matter how much of a foul mood you are in, my mood is worse. Missing the good old US of A.
JaySinWA
Might as well be hung for a sheep as for a lamb.
Unless you’ve got some lamb that might be attractive enough not to hang.
JaySinWA
@schrodingers_cat: I remember coming back from overseas and getting a “welcome home” from the immigration checkpoint. I definitely felt it. And that was from a much less hostile environment.
Jay
@schrodingers_cat:
Is it India, or just family and the funeral?
Chet Murthy
@JaySinWA: I remember in 1991 going to France for work, and the first six months were just -misery-. Every day was worse than the day before, b/c it was so different from the US, so -isolating-. Eventually I got a place at a dorm for US exchange students, and made friend with a bunch of grad students, and that made life OK. But those first six months: oof.
JaySinWA
@schrodingers_cat:
@JaySinWA:
Which is my attempt to say I hope your home coming is at least as good as mine was. Enjoy what you can while traveling but remember that when it ends, you are back home.
HumboldtBlue
If nothing else, Jimmy Kimmel’s wife, Molly McNearney, gives Trump a smack on the ass while Gen Z and millennials do whatever they do…
Ramona
@lamh47: i enjoyed it immensely until the scene in the hospital concerning her recently deceased fellow patient…
Gloria DryGarden
@cain: DID THEY ALREADY DO IT? Isn’t it a future date?
Gloria DryGarden
https://www.youtube.com/live/Is876dF_-Ds?si=OkGLvPcJI9rLo5JG
Geeks and Nerds for Harris. The recorded livestream. If you’re up late/early.
I only heard a little tonight, but this gem stood out: American men and women are gold, solid gold. Not gold leaf.
Gloria DryGarden
@Splitting Image: did you see the trailer for the Beekeeper, that BQuimby posted above, #55?
Quite satisfying, almost as good as wringing a towel hard til my arms shake. You don’t have to pretend it’s anyone’s neck; it simply feels good.
Gloria DryGarden
@Gloria DryGarden: they did it. I am crying. An innocent man.
our US Supreme Court
NO words
schrodingers_cat
@Jay: Family and archaic traditions
NotMax
@JaySinWA
Ghost of Shari Lewis on line one.
;)
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@Rose Weiss: I too live rurally and have to have a land line – the cell phone does not work if the electricity goes out. I usually answer any calls on the land line but hang up if there is no one on the line (auto dialed call). There is an answering machine on it also. I have my cell phone set to vibrate so I rarely answer calls on it either. Best to text me!
p.a.
Jackie
SEPTEMBER 24, 2024 AT 10:57 PM
@Jay:
I got a spoof call on my cell from my own cellphone number😂
A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)
@frosty: seconded!
Rose Weiss
@p.a.: I got that on my landline – I appeared to be calling myself! I worried that they would use my number to call others in my contact list, but afaik they never did.
Jay
@p.a.:
@Rose Weiss:
The call is coming from inside the house!!!!!!
Spc
@MattF: They are likely broadly accurate in that this is and will remain a close race in certain swing states but there are too many external factors this time that could influence the modeling – new regs, enthusiasm, ground games, some women keeping their options closer to the vest. Best thing to do is focus on facilitating turnout where one can..
Frankensteinbeck
I saw a chart and NYT/Sienna is normally as far an outlier as we think. The most anti-dem ‘reputable’ polling by a mile.
@wjca:
Half the Gospels right there. It reads to me, especially given the demographics, that the point of the Apostles was not to be his holiest followers, but to tell mainstream Jews “If these chucklefucks can learn, you can.” Thus him constantly berating them for Not Getting It.
piratedan
@Frankensteinbeck: as I wander amongst the political tombstones, came across this in regards to polling alternatives…
https://politizoom.com/forget-the-polls-blowout-for-harris-predicted-and-this-makes-sense/
take it with some salt, perhaps an entire shaker full… but there are some items there that jibe.
piratedan
and as a FYI…
Judge Chutkan has given Jack Smith the OK to publish his 180 page brief synopsis. per the L O’D show.
sure will be interesting to see what the fuck is in that!
hueyplong
@piratedan: In a rational world the substantive contents of the Smith filing would dominate the media for a while.
Not sure that’s where we live.
NotMax
@hueyplong
Scads of redactions, for sure.
Gvg
Caught a mention of some proposed legislation about reining in some of the abusive fraudulent calls again. Not sure if it was Congress or a Harris policy proposal. It is badly needed. IF we could make answering the phone less of a danger, then polling might become possible again. My understanding is a lot of the real scams come from overseas where they can’t be prosecuted and calls are mostly unidentifiable and untraced. So it’s a technology and cooperation issue. We need to work out some agreement with equipment providers and service providers of standards so that the calls can be traced and identified. If your phone says So and so Dr office in Gainesville Florida, or even medical services calling company corporate headquarters in other state, you can answer, but if it says not identified overseas routing server…..you avoid. Also it should give the real phone number, so you can report anything to authorities.
@schrodingers_cat: uh oh, what’s up?
Ramalama
@jonas: ooh, the gloves have come off…
Rugosa
Just ignore the bullshit and do what you’re fucking supposed to do. And remember that most of it is bullshit.
No Country for Old Men is one of those movies that was so good I watched it twice. That was enough to hold me, though, and I don’t think I want to see it again soon. Power of the Dog also hit me like that. Winter’s Bone. At Play in the Fields of the Lord (saw the movie on TV back in the day, immediately after read the book).
Kosh III
Go fuck off to your houseboat and pound
some beers withMs Lindsay. Fixed it.Kosh III
We put our phones away after supper and ignore any calls. If one phone rings, then the other rings immediately then it’s family and important.
Just to be mean, occasionally I will take a spam call but answer as “Davis county sheriff’s office.” They usually hang up.
UncleEbeneezer
@Baud: I’m so glad the party abandoned him!
UncleEbeneezer
@hueyplong: It would be bad enough that Trump seems scared shitless of the press it will generate.
Betty
This is way late, but John, you need to read Rick Perlstein’s review of the history of polling at the American Prospect. It really is pretty scammy when all is said and done