Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Come on, man.

I’m sure you banged some questionable people yourself. We’re allowed to grow past that.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

A consequence of cucumbers

Books are my comfort food!

In after Baud. Damn.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 944: Russia Continues To Pound Kharkiv with Glide Bombs While Trump Trashes Zelenskyy

War for Ukraine Day 944: Russia Continues To Pound Kharkiv with Glide Bombs While Trump Trashes Zelenskyy

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Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing excellently. Her next appointment is Monday. That’s her third treatment of the fourth and final round of chemo. She’ll then have two weeks off and then she get’s the final treatment and she’s done. Then she turns 14. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, as you all know Helene is expected to barrel through the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and is forecasted to make landfall in the Florida panhandle. If you are or could be in the path of Helene, make your plan and then be ready to execute it. Given the current forecasts and how tight the models are, I’m not expecting any issues here, but I’ll update as things get closer.

Third, last night in comments grubert asked:

I would like to ask Adam.. do you think Jake Broe is too optimistic?

Cause after I read your posts ( and I read it all except for the political boilerplate, )  I feel I need a Broe or Rehi to feel less .. depressed

I have no idea who either of these people are, so I have no idea if they’re too optimistic.

Russia once again opened up on Kharkiv with glide bombs today.

Just an hour ago shortly after 6 PM EDT/1 AM local time in Ukraine:

And earlier this morning.

More on Kharkiv after the jump.

While this was going on, Trump was giving a speech trashing President Zelenskyy and alleging that he is a crook. Trump also claimed that he’d force a negotiated settlement on Ukraine to end the war if he’s elected in November.

Love it that Trump preferred to comfortably forget about the fact that Zelensky came to the US to meet with Biden and also talk to Harris AND Trump, too.

Because this is what a wartime leader of a country under attack in the largest European war of aggression since 1945 would be doing — talking to the currently serving American president and also to potential next American leaders who can soon enter the White House and start defining policies towards Ukraine, less than two months away from the November election.

Besides, that was a gesture of respect towards DJT and his role in U.S. politics.

Ukraine is obviously interested in not taking sides in the U.S. presidential campaign and demonstrating its readiness to work with whoever wins the race.

Zelensky is responsible for saving a 40-million European country from Russia’s relentless war of extermination, the outcome of which greatly depends on the U.S., so it’s just silly to seriously believe he’s in a position to “campaign for Harris” now.

But sure, why not spit Zelensky in the face, directly insult him, call him a “salesman,” mock Ukraine’s desperate fight for survival against one of the largest war machines in human history deathly feared by the entire West — and for what?

For extra two seconds of cheap demagoguery of the I-will-end-this-war-within-24-hours populism that Trump himself does not really believe in?

President Zelenskyy addressed the High Level Meeting of the UN Security Council today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Russia’s War Against Ukraine Will End Because the UN Charter Will Work – Speech by the President of Ukraine at the High Level Meeting of the UN Security Council

24 September 2024 – 23:26

Your Excellencies,

One day in this hall it will surely be said that Russia’s war against Ukraine has ended – not frozen, not paused, not forgotten. Truly ended.

And this will happen not because someone got tired of the war. Not because someone traded something with Putin.

Russia’s war against Ukraine will end because the UN Charter will work. It must work. Our Ukrainian right to self-defense must prevail. Our cooperation with nations of the world who value life as we do. Our territorial integrity. Our sovereignty, the independence of our country. We are defending what every nation would surely want to protect for itself. And what the UN Charter grants to all.

And it is Russia that always has to lie to justify its war. Not us. Russia cannot refer to the UN Charter to explain what it is doing against us, against Ukraine, Ukrainian people. In fact, in Russia’s perverted way, in its crooked world, it does refer to the Charter – but that’s simply insane.

Russia stayed silent because it couldn’t explain why a Russian missile recently struck a grain ship bound for an Egyptian port through the Black Sea. Russia either stays silent or lies about why its drones and missiles are found in the airspace of Poland, Moldova, Romania. Every day, Ukrainians are wounded and killed. Every day. Today, once again Russian bombs hit residential buildings. Even an ordinary bread factory became a target. What’s so threatening to Russia about making bread? Putin has no answer. And Russia never has an honest answer when asked why its army kills children in Ukraine, “defeats” schools and hospitals, and fights not for justice, but for a blackout for a neighboring nation. Putin has nothing to say if you ask him why he tries to drag Belarus into the war, why his propagandists threaten nations in the Caucasus or Central Asia, or why Russia invests the most not in human development, but in hatred. Russia has no legitimate reason – none at all – for making Iran and North Korea de-facto accomplices in its criminal war in Europe, with their weapons killing us, killing Ukrainians and helping Putin steal our land from our people.

We know – some in the world want to talk to Putin. We know it. To meet, to talk, to speak. But what could they possibly hear from him? That he’s upset because we’re exercising our right to defend our people? Or that he wants to keep the war and terror going just so no one thinks he was wrong? It’s insane too.

From the very first second of this war, Russia has been doing things that cannot possibly be justified under the UN Charter. Every destroyed Ukrainian city, every burned village, and there are already hundreds and hundreds, serves as proof that Russia is committing an international crime. And that’s why this war can’t simply “fade away.” That’s why this war can’t be calmed by talks. Action is needed. And I am grateful to all the nations that are truly helping, in ways that save the lives of our people.

Putin has broken so many international norms and rules that he won’t stop on his own. Russia can only be forced into peace. And that is exactly what’s needed – forcing Russia into peace as the sole aggressor in this war, the sole violator of the UN Charter.

Now, as we near the third winter of this war, Russia is once again trying to destroy our energy system, and this fall, they’re being even more cynical. They’re preparing to target our nuclear power plants, three of them – we have this information, and we have proof of this. If Russia is ready to go that far, it means – nothing you value matters to Moscow. This kind of Russian cynicism will keep striking if it’s given any room in the world.

The UN Charter leaves no room for that. And that’s why the Peace Formula leaves no room either.

In 2022, in the midst of the war, when I proposed the Peace Formula, I was proposing to uphold the UN Charter – to make effective everything that this institution was created for. Every point of the Peace Formula is rooted in the principles and purposes and norms of the UN Charter – in the rights it grants nations, and in the resolutions of the General Assembly that have already been supported by the majority of nations.

And we do not have different versions of the UN Charter for different parts of the world. We do not have regional “quasi-charters”. There is no separate UN Charter for BRICS or for the G7. There is no separate Russian-Iranian UN Charter, or no separate Chinese-Brazilian UN Charter. There is one UN Charter, which unites everyone – must unite everyone. The path to a just peace is the same – clear steps that everyone understands equally, and this is reflected in the Peace Formula. It is the fulfillment of the UN Charter. And we all know what needs to be done if we honestly look at the situation and truly want to stop Russia’s war. And most importantly – act. Together, of course. Of course, in unity. Without creating new and unnecessary divisions of the world into blocs or regional groups. Unity always works for peace.

We have to prepare the second Peace Summit to end the war. All together. And I invite all of you – all principled nations – to join us in this process. All who truly respect the UN Charter.

We invite China. We invite Brazil. I have already invited India. We are working with African nations, with all of Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Europe, the Pacific region, North America. All are equally important for peace. All. Without exceptions. Just as the UN Charter must work without exceptions. This is the process that will lead us to peace. To a just peace. A real peace. A peace that will last. All of us already know how to achieve it. We have the Peace Formula. We have the UN Charter. And we have all the strength needed to make it happen.

What’s needed – is determination.

Thank you so much.

Glory to Ukraine!

Washington, DC:

🚨🇺🇸🇺🇦 “The US believes Ukraine will need at least $500 million worth of PDA per month through FY 2025, according to a senior administration official.”

This is half of what they need just for defensive operations, and clearly the Biden Admin won’t even give them that much. They are doing the “cupboard is bare” routine, claiming that stocks are empty and they can’t send Ukraine much of anything.

Beyond absurd.

There are three options here. The first is that the Biden administration is really bad at this. The second is that despite their public statements they really don’t care if Ukraine actually gets the aid. The third is a combination of the two. At this point, given that this has happened over and over and over again, it really doesn’t matter. The reality is that they’re strategically incompetent.

Not that Germany is doing much better:

Chancellor “No thoughts, only vibes” Scholz.

Lithuania:

Denmark:

“The one most important red line has been crossed already, and that was when the Russians entered Ukraine,” – PM of Denmark Mette Frederiksen.

“My suggestion is, let us end the discussion about lines and let us not delay with what the Ukrainians need not only to protect themselves but also to push Russia back,” @Statsmin added.

Prime Minister also emphasized that Russia’s war in Ukraine is not a European, but a global conflict, as Moscow is waging it with the help of China, as well as getting closer to Iran and DPRK.

Denmark is the world’s largest donor to Ukraine relative to the size of its economy, having allocated some 1.8% of GDP in bilateral support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Thankful to the people and government of Denmark for your unwavering support! 🇩🇰🇺🇦

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/ukraine-use-of-weapons-in-russia-should-be-loosened-denmark-pm-frederiksen-says

Japan:

I don’t think that the West understands what a crisis is currently growing in the Ukrainian infantry.

It is unlikely that there is an understanding that delaying permission to strike deep into Russia is a deepening of this crisis.

A war of such intensity cannot be waged by the same people.
I received my two wounds two months apart. If you are in the infantry, then 5-7 months of fighting is a guarantee of at least a concussion, at most – disability or death.

No amount of missiles will solve this crisis (unfortunately, the Ukrainian government still doesn’t understand this), but fundamental decisions by the US can at least not prolong the crisis.

Unfortunately, the situation on the frontline is dire in many areas. These tiring efforts to portray a rosy picture, suggesting that the AFU will soon be in Crimea, are hindering honest discussions and urgent calls for help. Zelensky is correct to seek binding security guarantees as strong as Article 5 because Ukraine is going to lose the war unless there are radical changes in how this war is approached

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

President Zelensky is seeking security guarantees as part of Ukraine’s ongoing effort to join NATO. While few expect this request to result in a positive answer, the reality is that Ukraine urgently needs security assurances to end the war and ensure its survival. This isn’t mere rhetoric to grab your attention – it’s an invitation to an honest discussion about why Zelensky is pushing for a new security framework – and why it must be taken seriously.

Some of these points may echo earlier discussions, but they need to be repeated to understand the full picture. No matter how optimistic some portray the situation, or talk about great Ukraine after the victory, it doesn’t resolve the problem. Admitting the problem and discussing it is the first step to a solution.

Let’s take a hard look at the potential consequences if Ukraine freezes the conflict without securing firm guarantees.

First, consider the economic and demographic problems of post-war Ukraine. The country has lost ~18% of its territory, including important agricultural and industrial regions in the south and east. Even in areas under Ukrainian control near the frontline, land remains unsafe due to extensive minefields. Sea ports like Mariupol and Berdyansk are occupied, and large industrial facilities, akin to Azovstal are destroyed.

Demographically, the situation is even worse. Before the war, Ukraine already faced one of the worst population trends in Europe. The Ptoukha Institute for Demography estimates that only around 29 million people lived in government-controlled areas at the start of 2024 – which is down from 45 million before the 2014 Russian invasion and Crimea’s annexation.

The war has accelerated the exodus of younger Ukrainians, particularly women and children, leaving behind an aging population. Adding to this, hundreds of thousands of veterans will return home, many of whom will require physical and psychological support. Managing this social, economic, and political burden without security guarantees would be a monumental task for any state forced to have high military spending, let alone Ukraine, with GDP per capita almost 5 times less than Greece. Additionally, without firm security guarantees and a concrete long-term plan, the likelihood of people returning from abroad remains slim.

Lack of guarantees will multiply the factor of instability, with fears of another Russian invasion driving more citizens to flee once borders fully reopen. The resulting uncertainty would deter post-war investments, as high-security risks and social instability would create an unattractive environment for any serious economic engagement.

Politically, Ukraine will also enter a period of uncertainty and risks. While Zelensky remains a unifying figure in wartime, internal tensions, which are often invisible to the Western audience are mounting, creating an increasingly toxic political atmosphere. A stalled war, millions displaced, lost territories, and a crippled economy hardly set the stage for calm and easy elections. As Ukraine enters a period of intense political competition, accusations of military failures are likely to dominate the discourse. It will be a test of Ukraine’s ability to preserve national unity across political lines.

Some argue that immigration could help address the problem, but what exactly would draw immigrants to Ukraine, where the average monthly salary is between $500 and $700, in a country ravaged by post-war problems and facing the constant threat of another Russian invasion? Especially when far more attractive opportunities are available within the EU.

Many Western partners assure Ukraine that aid will ensure that it won’t happen, but how reliable are these statements, given the history of similar statements akin to “Will support Ukraine as long as it takes” in today’s realities? Democracies operate on election cycles, and promises of long-term support can quickly become an object of shifting political winds. As elections approach, Ukraine could find itself a target of political debate, with opposition asking why their nations should prioritize foreign aid over pressing domestic issues like healthcare, education, or economic problems. In such an environment, the commitment to Ukraine is unstable and can’t be trusted.

The same applies to military aid for Ukraine. While Russia will keep rebuilding its forces, Ukraine will primarily depend on its own, much smaller domestic production and increasingly uncertain Western support, which will use peace as an excuse to diminish its aid

Russia, despite facing similar challenges, holds a significant advantage by being larger in most metrics, allowing it to better absorb these problems. Its vast resources, particularly oil and gas, offer economic leverage to soften the post-war problems. Moreover, Russia is likely to see some sanctions bypassed thanks to inconsistent enforcement. Under these conditions, it may only be a matter of time before Russia rebuilds a force large enough to deliver a decisive blow to Ukraine. Meanwhile, democratic Ukraine, without solid security guarantees, faces a far bleaker scenario.

Current peace proposals essentially send the same message: no guarantees for Ukraine, but a demand to cede territory and abandon aspirations of joining the Western alliance. In other words, nearly 30 million people are being sacrificed because the West is too weak and unwilling to make bold, risky decisions that could shape a better future.

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv today.

Yet another Russian air bomb crashed a large residential building sector.

Such things happen almost every day, and this will continue as long as Ukraine has no weapons to fight back and stop Russian large-scale bombing campaigns on its civilian population and infrastructure.

But let me guess, professional virtue signallers on “X” are absolutely out of ducks to give when it comes to the actual consequences of what they so eagerly pay lip service to.

Picture this: It’s a normal weekday, and you’re working, minding your own business. Suddenly, without any warning, you hear an explosion that shakes the buildings and sets off car alarms outside.

You would probably head to a shelter if you were farther from the launch sites on russian territory, but you are in Kharkiv, very close to russia. The bombing has already started, so you only have seconds before the next explosion.

You can’t use the elevator during a bombing, and the staircase with windows on each floor probably isn’t the best idea either. So, you quickly dash to a corridor or bathroom—somewhere without windows.

There you sit and count the explosions, unable to do anything else. First, second (that sounded like it was near your parents’ house—please, no), third, fourth, fifth (this one was so close, your building shook a bit), sixth (“Hello, Mom, are you OK?”), seventh…

After long minutes of silence, you dare to step out of your almost-shelter. By this time, you know there are victims; local channels are buzzing with news. But you are supposed to get back to your day. To somehow keep working, go buy your family dinner, get back home and cook it, and just be the person your family relies on.

People in Kharkiv don’t need to imagine. It’s how our days go, one by one, every day. Today we survived, and they didn’t; we got lucky. But what about tomorrow?

I’m Adam L. Silverman and I approve this message!

Vuhledar:

Ukrainian analysts at Deep State write that Russian forces are “erasing” Vuhledar.

“The situation around the city is critical and continues to get more complicated.”The Russians “are trying to surround the town while at the same time razing it to the ground with artillery, glide bombs, etc.”

“To hold on until the last [soldiers] means to put ruins above the price of our military, which is unacceptable.”

Vuhledar is a longtime bulwark. But it might be close to falling. The exhausted but tough as nails 72nd brigade still fighting there, as I wrote in my in my @FT dispatch published yesterday: https://on.ft.com/47zTkzU

Pokrovsk:

Vovchansk:

Kyiv:

Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, Russia:

I know some of you are still looking for places to make contributions to support Ukraine. Here’s one:

Guys, there’s a good opportunity to help a charity project for Ukrainian veterans.

My friend @vsheredeha and his spouse @Jabbermikkey are raising funds to operate and develop a recently launched veteran care department at the historical Pavlov Mental Health Hospital in Kyiv (established in 1786!)

The guys recently renovated very old, unused premises provided by the hospital administration, launched a group therapy room, and are repairing a swimming pool.

(Check out the news story by @nahornyjtwi about their work below).

It’s all for the recovery of our soldiers whose souls were badly traumatized by war.

The guys always need generous donations to keep this project running and progressing. If you’re interested, follow them — they regularly report on their activities.

You can help them, too, no matter where you are in the world. It would be good for your everyday karma, a contribution to helping Ukrainian combat veterans return to a fulfilling life at home.

Here’s how you can help:

PayPal: [email protected]
MonoBanka (should work with most banking cards worldwide): https://send.monobank.ua/jar/3Rv1Ettypb

Thank you all in advance!!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today.

Here is another one of his cartoon episodes that I haven’t posted before.

Open thread!

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    8Comments

    4. 4.

      way2blue

      I had been thinking of Biden’s red line regarding the use of long-range weapons against military targets inside Russia as an immense container ship.  And all the Western countries urging a more serious policy—as tug boats pushing toward a better course.  Apparently there are too many jokers involved.   No words…

      White House says it is “mindful of the legislative calendar” as billions of Ukraine aid left to be spent before Oct 1

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Chris

      @way2blue:

      Would’ve been nice if they’d been mindful of the legislative calendar back in 2022, when the calendar was “Republicans are likely to make gains in 2022 and 2024, and the more they make the harder it’s going to be to resupply Ukraine; you need to cram absolutely everything you can into Ukraine while you have a relatively free hand, and start working with allies to set up contingency plans if/when the U.S. stops bring a reliable source of weapons.”

      Reply
    7. 7.

      grubert

      Sorry Adam, I guess I incorrectly assumed you knew.

      Jake Broe has one of the most followed YouTube channels covering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
      His sober tone and level-headed approach are respected.. in this way he is similar to you, in my mind at least.   Broe is ex-Air Force and worked in a nuclear missile launch site.  He also raised funds to provide vehicles to the AFU.

      Artur Rehi is an Estonian YouTuber, covering the same.  He’s rather more exuberant, which is helpful at times, and a bit annoying at other times.  Still, he appears to walk the walk, and has raised funds to provide drones to the AFU.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      grubert

      For those who care to get more Ukraine news.

      Jake Broe’s latest.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NdPjS3EvcFU

      Artur Rehi’s latest
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrlG05Bk5fE

      a few others I check out now and then.. like Denys Davydov and Konstantin Samoilov,

      Meta stuff:   Silicon Curtain, Vatnik Soup.

      Don’t much care for Peter Zeihan,  feels like Mary Ann Williamson..  if you think otherwise, I’m all ears

      Also, Jake Broe has been *rigorously* non-political over the 2 years I’ve followed him, until the GOP started blocking aid.. then he began targeted criticisms of the main culprits.  Since the presidential election season began he’s been extremely clear that Trump must not be elected, if you care about Ukraine.   Or global order and peace.

      Reply

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