Looking like that storm down in the Gulf is going to be a total disaster for the region:
A two-story-high wall of water is forecast to swallow a large stretch of the Florida coastline overnight as Hurricane Helene rages ashore. Now a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 miles per hour, the storm is likely to make landfall before midnight as the strongest ever to strike the state’s Big Bend region.
Already rain and heavy surf are pounding much of western Florida, with forecasters warning of a “nightmare” flooding scenario for low-lying communities. They expect the storm’s hurricane-force winds to stretch from the Tampa region to as far as central Georgia.
Up to 20 feet of storm surge is predicted for the Big Bend — an amount exceeded rarely on the Gulf Coast. The surge in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, one of the deadliest storms to make landfall in the United States, reached 28 feet. President Biden has approved disaster declarations for Florida, Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina.
Reminder that you are not allowed to talk about climate change in Florida.
Keep Betty in your thoughts.
I know that the repulsive comments by Clay Higgins about Haitians has been talked about here at least once by Watergirl (and maybe others my short term memory is shit), but I just want to remind you all that as every day passes, it is going to get worse and worse and they are going to get nuttier and more vulgar, especially as bad polls come in over the next few weeks. And if they lose, everything is going to go bonkers, too. Just keep your heads down and don’t let it bother you, because it is a deliberate campaign tactic. I saw this on twitter earlier:
If Alex Soros wants Harris and Walz to win, this tweet will not help. pic.twitter.com/yOCkCJr3He
— James Surowiecki (@JamesSurowiecki) September 26, 2024
If you have not noticed, the Harris campaign’s strategy has been to put forward to the normies in the country a serious, joyful, policy filled and substantive face while also clearly defining the Trump/Vance as weird, dangerous, out of touch, and invasive. And they have been doing a great job of it, too. But the subtext of this campaign has been a constant troll of the Trump campaign. The couch references by Walz, the crowd and hand size stuff at the DNC and debate, and on and on and on. They are doing everything they can to enrage the fanatics to get them to explode, so that they can define themselves as lunatics. What I am saying is that none of your friends who don’t follow politics knows who the fuck George Soros is. He’s not a flashy billionaire like Musk or Cuban or Zuck or Bezos. The only people who know Soros is are the diehard Dems and political obsessives who are chronically informed and online, and the anti-Semitic and racist wings of the GOP (although at this point it’s the whole fucking party except maybe Mitt Romney). And it’s gonna make them explode.
That’s what I think, at any rate.
Before I forget, you can now get free covid tests. Make sure you get yours.
Lot of good recs in the open thread last night about for noir and neo-noir. I of course am using none of them because I got it into my head I wanted to rewatch Jack Irish. I think it was because I was thinking about Guy Pearce in Memento and then that led to that. So that is what I am doing tonight.
Send happy thoughts to Joelle- she’s going through some shit and her very senior blind and deaf Shiba Inu named Curtis has an ulcer on his eye, and that is stressing her out a great deal. And I am absolute shite when dealing with people in tears or near tears. Me trying to cheer someone up is the equivalent of throwing an anchor to a drowning man.
Professor Bigfoot
When they printed up their “MASS DEPORTATION NOW” signs, the GOP told us in no uncertain terms that they are now the Nazi party.
I don’t make the rules, but I DID read Shirer’s “Rise and Fall.
Clay Higgins is just being *overt.*
This is who they are, now.
Chacal Charles Calthrop
How fare the cats – and your cat bite? Are you ok?
cmorenc
For all the talk about the 12-20 ft storm surge, there’s been scant mention of the expected tide phase when the surge hits. Surge level is superimposed over tide level, and if the tidal difference between low and high tide in a given location is 5 ft, a 12 ft surge is effectively only 7 ft above mean high tide if the surge arrives during low tide, but full 12 at high tide.
hrprogressive
The people who “give a shit” about the Soros last name are already Nazis, and already weren’t voting for Harris/Walz.
Hell, the only reason I even know of their name is because I am semi-chronically online and have been for the last 20 years.
Normie Voters want, and enjoy, “America’s Dad” Tim Walz, and “Auntie Kamala”. And they want to know how those people are gonna help them make ends meet, protect this country from both internal and external Fascists, and help, you know, maybe bring a little credibility back to the “American Dream”.
And on that front, Walz & Harris have been doing a reasonable to fantastic job, depending on the day or moment.
bbleh
Well that tears it! I’m gonna hafta sell the house to buy one o’ them $100,000 watches and move the family into a MOtel, and it’s all Kamabla’s fault!!
Gvg
It’s hitting some of the least inhabited part of our state, with out much money sunk it it. The residents are mostly pretty good at getting out except for a few stubborn old ones. There will be problems with insurance, and some will have gone without. Hopefully the sailed the boats away. So I don’t think the Florida part will be that harmed. Even the hotel tourist parts closer to Tallahassee and the bases will recover because we make plans and follow them (after Andrew). The other states in the region I am not as sure of. It seemed to me that the last time we had a bad one that impacted other states, some of them didn’t know what they were doing…..Texas was the worst, with Louisiana and Mississippi also not good. But this one looks headed to Georgia and the Carolinas. i think they have managed before. Admittedly the flooding looks bad.
We we’re so incompetent after Andrew, but learned from it.
JPL
truthfully, rump pals around with nazis so I could care less what his cult members thinks.
Jackie
Sending positive vibes and love to Joelle! ♥️
Percysowner
Ordered my free COVID Test today. Planning to get my vaccines either this Friday or Saturday and then push my kids to get theirs and the grandkids. I held off on the vaccinations because we all went through a horrible session of gastrointestinal problems. The 2 year old gave it to me and my daughter and son-in-law. SIL and I got over it, my daughter couldn’t shake it. Turned out it was crypto, no not the money type but cryptospridium, a nasty one celled parasite. Most people get over it in a few day, but when it hangs on it’s nasty. My daughter has finally turned the corner, she thinks. The health department contacted us and I will spend the weekend putting hydrogen peroxide everywhere, because not even bleach kills those suckers, its H2O2 or nothing. Plus the only treatment if you don’t get over it yourself makes you feel worse for three days and costs $180 AFTER insurance.
I’m sure Betty has made sure she is in a safe area. I hear some people have decided not to evacuate, even with authorities saying this will be a killing storm surge. Any Florida peeps, get to safety and stay there.
My heart goes out to Joelle and I am sending all the good vibes I can to her.
NotMax
Respite.
A good Hurricane.
;)
Central Planning
@hrprogressive: We all know the name because of the Soros checks we get every month!
lamh47
This P.O.S.
CaseyL
I’m very sorry to hear about Curtis. I hope the ulcer is something that can be treated without surgery.
Tonight I really need to buckle down and do the online training for a new volunteer gig. it’s one I’m very happy to be part of: water quality monitoring for a local park, which is environmentally important as it contains numerous creeks (used for salmon runs) and a beaver lodge. The creeks feed into Puget Sound. So it’s fairly serious stuff, which calls for fairly serious training. The online modules are preparation for an in-person training next weekend. So I better get on with it.
hells littlest angel
Let alone Alex! The other side is a bunch of nutters. Dangerous nutters.
Central Planning
@NotMax: More respite: Loving a Hurricane
Gvg
@cmorenc: it arrives at high tide approximately. Hard to state with a hurricane. They have their own schedule. Crescent moon but in cedar key I didn’t see that much difference from full moon tide.
HumboldtBlue
LocalManWeather has all the storm Helene coverage you need.
Ohio Mom
Trying to cheer up a distraught person is a mug’s game. What works is empathy, saying things that validate their feelings, things like, “That’s tough” but more specifically tailored to their situation. “I’m so sad for you, I know how you loved him.” “That is a terrible loss, of course you are besides yourself.”
That’s all we can do, as we all know, many things cannot be made better.
On another note, Soros has retired and turned over his philanthropic activities to his son. He is old and frail. It was always silly when people made him out to be some sort of mastermind villain but it’s even sillier now.
raven
@Gvg: It’s going to hammer the crops in South Georgia
WaterGirl
@lamh47: To them, women are not really people.
Ken
Is this one of those situations where the governor of the state has to request aid? If so, I’m so sorry for the people of Florida.
cmorenc
One perverse blessing the Hurricane Helene brings is to drown out the Orange Fartcloud from hogging news cycles for 2-3 days. Trump doesn’t pick up any new voters with press coverage of his antics, but OTOH the net effect is to divert oxygen away from positive coverage of Harris. She arguably benefits to an extent from negative media coverage of Trump, but she benefits more to the extent she positively dominates the media cycles. The former helps by giving gettable voters reasons to vote against Trump, but it’s more net valuable to give gettable voters positive reasons to vote for Harris.
zhena gogolia
I’m sorry about Joelle. I hope the puppy will be okay.
Dagaetch
Sending well wishes to Joelle!
NotMax
FYI. Pulling out ASAP.
geg6
My thoughts are with Joelle and the poor pup. Hopefully, it’s a temporary setback and everything will be fine.
Also sending good thoughts to all in Helene’s path. Be safe!
lamh47
@WaterGirl: Just trash…which is why that poll from the other week had me so damn hot! With the number for white women in that poll being too damn close within margin, but for Chump…smh
K-Mo
Well that’s it. I was going to vote for Kamala but now I see Walz visited some random rich guy in NYC so I have no choice but to vote for the authoritarian guy.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@WaterGirl:
That is so true. Even though a lot of naturalized immigrants and their children agree with the GOP’s attitudes about women and LGBTQ+, the GOP can’t let go of its racism and nativism to unite on those issues. If we succeed at defeating Trump and Trumpism, I hope the future isn’t one where lessening racism leads to a new unity between the homophobic, transphobic, and misogynists on the left and right.
TBone
Harris bobblehead dolls sold out in Michigan while the Donold dolls sit on the shelves forlornly:
https://x.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1839468520519970893
Ron Filipkowski: “This has to affect Nate Silver’s forecast.”
BR
@hrprogressive:
I selfishly want so much more of Aunt Harris / Dad Walz content. They are so good and we were getting more of that kind of content before the DNC. So many fun interviews and moments they could get out there — doesn’t even need to be more than 5 minute appearances somewhere. I keep thinking of Harris on Drew Barrymore or cooking with Mindy Kaling and Tim Walz on subwaytakes talking about gutters.
HumboldtBlue
This is hilarious.
There’s another hilarious speaker as well, I gotta find him.
Melancholy Jaques
@NotMax:
Behold the Hurricane
RevRick
@hrprogressive: Speaking of communing with Nazis, I got a phone call earlier this evening from the RNC. So I answered the call, because I was curious to hear the rant, and it was a beaut. The woman had obviously rehearsed her rant, which painted a dire picture of what will happen when the communists Harris and Walz take power, and would my name be added to those fighting against the evil Democrats?
In addition to my zero dollars donation I wasted her time. Am I a bad person for taking pleasure in screwing her over?
RevRick
@zhena gogolia: I second the sympathy.
My advice to John is don’t try to cheer Joelle up. Don’t. Instead, just encourage her to pour out her grief. I know that’s hard for us guys since we are socialized to “fix” things and have the “answers.” Also, we can get quite uncomfortable with someone else’s pain, because we’re taught to suppress and deny our own. Which further motivates us guys to resort to the fixing solution.
What Joelle needs from you is for you to let her know that you are the safe place she can go when she needs to pour out her heart and have a good cry.
Jackie
@RevRick: About a week ago while driving around, I saw a very worn, tattered Trump flag hanging from a house. I noted the house address, and did something I never thought I’d do in a million years. I wrote a message saying “Dear Trump supporter: I noticed your Trump flag is as worn out, tattered and as OLD as your MAGA leader is. SAD!”
I mailed my note addressed to Trump Sucker and address.
It felt so liberating in my neck of the pro MAGA woods I live in!
Kristine
Hoping matters improve soon for Joelle and her pupster.
CaseyL
@RevRick:
What did you say to her when she presumably allowed you to get a word in edgewise?
zhena gogolia
@HumboldtBlue: That is great!
Ohio Mom
@Jackie: There is a house in an even redder suburb than mine that I used to pass while taking a certain shortcut.
This house had home-made anti-Iraq war signs and I used to think I should send them a postcard complimenting
them for their principled stand and thanking them for making me feel less alone.
But I never did and years later I saw a Just Sold sign and I regretted my forsaken good deed.
A long way of saying, I get why you did that.
Villago Delenda Est
Cole, I agree with you on Surowiecki. He doesn’t seem to have the insight you do as to why Harris and Walz are doing this. They’re trolling, and they’re going to get the antisemites who are the GQp base riled up. And expose them for what they are, Julius Streicher wannabes.
BR
Daniel Swain (Weather West extraordinare) did a livestream and he said the hurricane is showing signs of late rapid intensification as he said the amount of lightning is unusual.
RevRick
@WaterGirl: The most radical words in the Bible are found in Paul’s letter to the Galatians*.
“There is no Jew or Greek, there is no slave or free, there is no male and female.” Galatians 3:28
What’s surprising about these words, is they aren’t Paul’s, but rather an allusion to a Baptismal Creed that was familiar throughout the Christian Church at the time. Since Paul’s letter is dated to around 50 C.E., that indicates the church had developed this creed soon after the Jesus events, which were about twenty years before.
What makes these words so radical is that the conventional belief almost universally held was that barbarians or nonJews, and slaves, and women were not fully human, but were despised and contemptible. And the Church declared that those beliefs were all a lie.
* The Galatians were forced exiles from Gaul to what’s now central Turkey.
Keithly
@RevRick: You should ask the question of a discreet and understanding pastor.
gwangung
@Keithly: for some churches, it’s more of the egotistical parishioners who should be asked that question. They’re most definitely trying to remake God in their own image.
Frankensteinbeck
@lamh47:
If you believe abortion is murder, this is the only possible moral answer.
If you don’t believe abortion is murder, why are you trying to restrict it?
And again, if you believe abortion is murder… fuck off, imposing your religion’s ‘beliefs’ on non-believers is some evil shit.
RevRick
@CaseyL: When she asked for money, I simply said no.
Old School
Happy thoughts to Joelle and Curtis!
scav
@lamh47: Is JD Vance going to extend the prenatal humans right to kill its mother without consequence and without the woman’s right to defend herself to post-natal humans? As is this holy 00 status limited to biological matricide or can step-mothers, post-menopausal grand-mother caregivers, and the odd au-pair also be judged legitimate targets?
HumboldtBlue
JD Vance: American families aren’t having enough children because car seats… seriously.
wjca
I’d have asked something like “But there’s all these tech billionaires supporting him. They could give thousands of times what I could, and they’d never miss it. Why do you need my money???”
Act all confused. Could string the conversation out (i.e. waste her time) for quite a while.
Jackie
@Ohio Mom: I haven’t driven back past the house to see if they’ve removed or replaced their SAD flag. I will soon.
prostratedragon
They really are trying to make Pitchbot retire.
HumboldtBlue
Here’s a thread on the JD Vance dossier, this is… this… these people are fucking crazy.
cain
John,
You do yourself an injustice. You are one of the most empathetic people I know. Maybe you aren’t touchy feely and gruff.
But you have passion and I know Jolene knows that and knows she has the most amazing person to share her life with.
If not ? You are fucked, I am siding with Jolene. 😂😂
ETA I hope Joelle’s dog’s health issues gets resolved amicably.
cain
@RevRick:
If you can beget a human being I think you might be more than human.
Ohio Mom
@HumboldtBlue: I saw that earlier today. It is true, anyone with a baby and a car hates wrangling their kids into their seats.
But you know, there are are lot of things to hate about having a baby in your life, starting with being woken up in the middle of the night over and over.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Bemused Senior and I used to joke that we were being trained to resist interrogation.
BruceFromOhio
Good to establish that before going for an attempted rescue.
Doug
“who the fuck George Soros is”
And people with really long memories who know that Soros probably did more to end communism in Central Europe than any other private individual.
Gloria DryGarden
@RevRick: you are not a bad person; you’re helping us deeply. I hope you get more chances to waste their time. I still find more acquaintances that repeat those weird talking points, the economy, migrants…
re Joelle, and your suggestion to “let her know that you are the safe place she can go when she needs to pour out her heart and have a good cry.” Bingo!
That is so accurate to what women usually want.
I’ve begun to teach my fellas ( and myself) to ask, “do you want solutions, or just to vent and for me to listen.”
There is something so comforting about having a good cry with a close person present, just calmly there listening, bearing witness.
Timill
We had success treating an ulcerated eye in a young kitten by getting the vet to apply medication and then sewing the eyelid shut for a couple of days. Repeat 2 or 3 times and Leonidas still has both eyes working.
lowtechcyclist
@Frankensteinbeck:
And even if they believe it’s murder, it’s not like human life generally matters to them.
They’re perfectly happy to let people die in droves, just so long as they’re not fetuses still in the womb. Covid made it unmistakable: while people were dying by the hundreds of thousands in America, and by the tens of millions worldwide, the evangelical ‘pro-lifers’ opposed all measures we tried to engage in to save lives.
When they care half as much about the lives of already-born people as does the average agnostic liberal, I might consider taking seriously their concern for the lives of fetuses in the womb. Until then, fuckem.
way2blue
Hugs to Joelle. Aging pets are a reminder that everyday is a gift.
Not Noir, but I’m watching ‘Presumed Innocent’ (with Jake Gyllenhaal) on Apple TV+. Based on a book by Scott Turow. Very intense.