Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Donald Jessica Trump found guilty as fuck – May 30, 2024!

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

I also would like a pony to improve my balloon juice experience.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Second rate reporter says what?

How can republicans represent us when they don’t trust women?

I desperately hope that, yet again, I am wrong.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

He imagines himself as The Big Bad, Who Is Universally Feared… instead of The Big Jagoff, Who Is Universally Mocked.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 947: The Statesman & the Fool

War for Ukraine Day 947: The Statesman & the Fool

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Three quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great. We got a short walk in, about a third of a mile, late this afternoon. She doesn’t have the stamina she did before the chemo, but as long as we don’t over do it, she does great.

Second, we came through everything fine. I did a quick site survey last night before I racked out and we had one Bismark palm frond down; another Bismark palm frond snapped near the boot, but still attached to the tree; a large tree limb by the front bed that came down away from the house and that was it other than some small branches blown around. We were very lucky. There are parts of the area still underwater from storm surge and flooding. And that’s not counting all the damage and destruction in GA and NC.

Third, I’m slowly making my way through this very deep dive into the Biden administration’s attempt to manage and mitigate the Israel-Hamas, Israel-Hezbullah, and Israel-Iran crises over the past year. This particularly passage from the first substantive section stood out to me and is, I think, a good and succinct description of the Biden doctrine:

Above all else, Joe Biden—who could remember the dawn of the atomic age, when schoolkids practiced hiding under their desk—feared escalation. When presented with the chance to send more potent arms to Ukraine, he would ask, “Will this increase the likelihood of nuclear war?” And four days after the Hamas attack, it seemed as if his abiding fear of a crisis spinning out of control was about to be realized.

I highly recommend you take the time to read the entire article.

President Zelenskyy met with Trump today. It went like this:

Trump: “So we have a very good relationship. And I also have a very good relationship, as you know, with President Putin… If we win I think we’re going to get it resolved very quickly.”

Zelensky: “I hope we have more good relations between us—”

Trump: “Oh I see. But it takes two to tango, you know.”

I had a very productive meeting with @realDonaldTrump. I presented him our Victory Plan, and we thoroughly reviewed the situation in Ukraine and the consequences of the war for our people. Many details were discussed. I am grateful for this meeting. A just peace is needed.

We share the common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must prevail.

President Zelenskyy had to go through with this because 1) Trump has a 30% chance, the same 30% chance he had in 2016 and 2020, 2) to mollify Republicans in Congress, in order to 3) increase the miniscule chance that if Trump is elected, Ukraine won’t be punished too badly by a second Trump administration.

While this was going on, the Russians, led by Putin who Trump assured the world wants peace and the war to end immediately while standing next to Zelenskyy, bombarded Zelenskyy’s home town.

President Zelenskyy did make an address earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The Plan for Victory Has Been Presented to America, and We Have Explained Every Single Point – Address by the President

27 September 2024 – 21:31

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I had a meeting with Donald Trump. Very productive and detailed meeting. I am very grateful. And in general, it was a busy, long, extremely important week in America.

As we planned, we are going home today, after all necessary negotiations. And all the negotiations were exactly as Ukraine needed them to be.

The Plan for Victory has been presented to America, and we have explained every single point. Now we will work at the level of our teams to fill every step and every our decision. Strong positions for Ukraine will lead to peace sooner. All the key issues for Ukraine are on our partners’ table, and everything is being considered. Long-range capabilities, the defense package, sanctions against Russia, steps on Russian assets. We have managed to work on all topics. We are preparing for a meeting in Germany within the Ramstein framework – it is a format, where we will follow the content of the Plan for Victory points together with our partners. I thank President Biden for the invitation.

Yesterday in Washington, the President and I went over all the key things, all key decisions. I am grateful for the willingness to implement exactly this way for Ukraine to prevail. I am grateful for the unprecedented military package and the relevant decisions – a large package, of almost $8 billion; it will support our warriors and all our people, in particular, there are good things for air defense before winter. There were meetings in the U.S. Congress – full support. Both parties, both houses. I am grateful to all the Senators, all the members of the House of Representatives for the discussions, for the friendly advice and for the questions that really allow us to achieve results, our common strength and peace through strength.

As we intended from the beginning, the Plan for Victory was presented to both presidential candidates. A meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris yesterday – a long conversation, and today with Donald Trump – a conversation that lasted almost an hour. It is important for Ukraine that America has a direct understanding of Ukraine. And it absolutely does. This Russian war must be stopped, and it must be stopped with fairness, so that no aggressor will ever do what Russia is doing.

We also have new agreements on reconstruction – G7+, more than 30 countries have joined, and the European Union. This is analogous to our security framework, there was a G7 Declaration on Security, and based on it we have made security agreements – 26 of them already – they strengthen us while we are not yet in NATO. And now there will be bilateral documents with countries on reconstruction, on clear steps for each country.

And the most important – the front. We have done everything in our power, in Ukraine’s power, to strengthen ourselves to the maximum. And now, together with our partners, we need to ensure exactly the right things that will bring us closer to a just peace. Russia must lose this war. Ukraine must prevail. These are the real foundations of shared security. Peace through strength.

I thank everyone who helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

The reason:

⚡️Ukraine returned 10 more children from the occupation

The age of the returnees is from 13 to 17 years. Some of them have disabilities and serious illnesses.

“Fortunately, through the mediation of the State of Qatar, it was possible to reunite the children with their families, who were separated by the Russians for a long time,” – commented on the event, ombudsman Lubinets.

More news here 👉 http://rbc.ua

The US:

Following yesterday’s statement from @POTUS, the @DeptofDefense provided additional details on the $2.4 billion security assistance package through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
The package includes:
◾️Munitions and support for Ukrainian air defense systems
◾️Air-to-ground munitions
◾️Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and components to support Ukrainian production of UAS
◾️Counter-UAS equipment
◾️Unmanned surface vessels
◾️Secure communications equipment
◾️Equipment and materiel to support Ukrainian munitions production
◾️Spare parts, maintenance and sustainment support, and other ancillary equipment

This is the twenty-first USAI package to help Ukraine confront Russian aggression.
We are grateful to our American partners for their continued and strong support!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

The UK:

The UK will send more AS-90 artillery guns to Ukraine. With 10 systems already delivered and six more to follow in the coming weeks, a total of 16 units are now on course for delivery.

The AS-90 artillery systems will strengthen our warriors on the battlefield.

We deeply appreciate that the United Kingdom have stood by our side since the very beginning of the russian invasion. Your unwavering support and leadership are crucial for our success.
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧
@DefenceHQ @JohnHealey_MP

The New York Times did a deep dive into the US response to President Zelenskky’s victory plan.

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to employ U.S., British and French-supplied long-range missiles for strikes deep inside Russia, U.S. officials said.

The intelligence assessment, which has not been previously reported, also plays down the effect that the long-range missiles will have on the course of the conflict because the Ukrainians currently have limited numbers of the weapons and it is unclear how many more, if any, the Western allies might provide.

The assessment highlights what intelligence analysts see as the potential risk and uncertain rewards of a high-stakes decision that now rests with President Biden, who met with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine at the White House on Thursday.

The findings may help explain in part why the decision has been so difficult for Mr. Biden to make, and show the internal pressures on him to say no to Mr. Zelensky’s request. U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence matters and internal deliberations, said it remained unclear what Mr. Biden would decide to do.

Mr. Zelensky has publicly and privately lobbied for the authority to use the missiles to bring the war farther into Russia.

Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has frequently employed threats to deter the United States and its coalition partners from providing more advanced weapons systems to the Ukrainians.

Critics of Mr. Biden and his advisers say they have been too easily intimidated by Mr. Putin’s hostile rhetoric, and they say that the administration’s incremental approach to arming the Ukrainians has disadvantaged them on the battlefield. Proponents of their approach say that it had largely been successful at averting a violent Russian response, though that may no longer be the case.

British leaders have been less risk averse. They have voiced support for allowing the Ukrainians to use the long-range missiles that they have supplied for strikes deep inside Russia, but they have been waiting for Mr. Biden to take a position on the matter before authorizing strikes since the potential Russian response could have implications for security for the coalition as a whole.

The intelligence assessment describes a range of possible Russian responses to a decision to allow long-range strikes using U.S. and European-supplied missiles — from stepped up acts of arson and sabotage targeting facilities in Europe, to potentially lethal attacks on U.S. and European military bases.

U.S. officials say the G.R.U., Russia’s military intelligence agency, has been responsible for most of the acts of sabotage in Europe that have taken place thus far. If Mr. Putin decides to expand the shadowy campaign in response to the use of U.S. and European missiles deep inside Russia, U.S. officials believe the Russians will continue to do so covertly, rather than conduct overt attacks on U.S. and European facilities and bases, to reduce the risk of a wider conflict.

Mr. Putin’s rhetoric has been especially bellicose in recent days in anticipation of a decision on long-range strikes, and at least some of Mr. Biden’s top advisers believe that he is likely to respond with lethal force if the decision goes Mr. Zelensky’s way.

A White House spokesman did not respond to a request for comment on the assessment. A spokeswoman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

More at the link!

I somehow have a feeling telling me that risks of Ukraine eventually bleeding out and collapsing kinda overweight all speculated theoretical risks of Russian “prompt forceful retaliation” like acts of arson, sabotage, Dmitriy Medvedev’s drunk rampages on Telegram or even Russia secretly giving weapons to Houthis.

By the way, did this sort of restraint ever prevent Russia from doing what it already does against the West?

Also, given the fact that it took Russia almost three years and several destroyed brigades to outflank a small
town in Donbas called Vuhhledar, I find it extraordinarily unlikely that Russia is now ready to deliver lethal strikes upon U.S. military bases and enter a direct full-scale war with NATO.

It’s just that using loosely formulated risk assessment reports to find extra excuses not to do something extremely necessary and waste even more time (only to get back to those decisions later in much worse situations) is simply not a good strategy for today’s world’s largest war that we all try to deter and put to an end.

Who could’ve possibly imagined that Russia has been waging war against NATO member states using all elements of national power, but with a deemphasis on military power? Eez a puzzlement.

I think we have been and are on the right side of this.

A grim but insightful article in the FT discusses acute manpower shortages on the frontlines and inadequate training.

While it quotes Ukrainian officials citing 30,000 recruits per month, after reading the article, you might get feeling as though Ukraine is struggling to get any recruits. One of the reasons is that after completing training, new recruits are often assigned to newly formed brigades, even if they had a reference from another unit that recruited them. As a result, experienced brigades like the 72nd, now heavily engaged in Vuhledar and fighting since day one, are losing their veteran core without properly passing experience to fresh recruits, as most are directed to new units.

In short, the problem isn’t a lack of willing Ukrainians, recruitment numbers are up, but rather a bizarre management decision on top

Article:

https://ft.com/content/b9396112-585a-4f7e-9628-13d500c99d93

From The Financial Times:

For six gruelling days this month a small team of experienced Ukrainian soldiers managed to withstand Russia’s relentless assault on their position on the eastern front.

All aged under 40 and with two years of fighting experience, the six men held their ground despite a barrage of rockets and killed over 100 Russian soldiers, said their commander in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

“When they rotated out, they were trembling. They hadn’t slept or rested,” their commander said near the frontline south-east of Pokrovsk, a city Russia is seeking to occupy. “But those guys did their job and held the line.”

The troops who replaced them were less successful. Of the eight soldiers rotated in, only two had combat experience. All six new conscripts — most over the age of 40 — were killed or wounded within a week, forcing the unit to retreat.

Outmanned and outgunned since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s troops have valiantly defended their territory from Russian bombardments, ground assaults and dirty tactics such as employing chemical weapons, which the US has said amount to war crimes.

Kyiv’s forces inflicted huge losses on the Russian army this year and proved they were still capable of seizing the initiative when they invaded Russia’s southern Kursk region.

Despite those achievements, Ukraine’s troops and their commanders are growing concerned over manpower problems, particularly the quality of new recruits and the speed at which they are injured or killed.

The Ukrainian infantry is most acutely affected: its troops are grappling with exhaustion and flagging morale, leading some to abandon their positions and allow Russia to capture more land, according to frontline commanders.

Along the front in Donetsk, four commanders, a deputy commander and nearly a dozen soldiers from four Ukrainian brigades told the Financial Times that the new conscripts lack basic combat skills, motivation and often flee their positions when they come under fire.

The commanders estimated that 50 to 70 per cent of new infantry troops were killed or wounded within days of starting their first rotation.

“When the new guys get to the position, a lot of them run away at the first shell explosion,” said a deputy commander in Ukraine’s 72nd mechanised brigade fighting near the eastern city of Vuhledar, a key bulwark that the Russians are attempting to flank.

This situation poses a significant challenge for Ukraine as it fights on the new front in Kursk while at the same time trying to fend off Moscow’s forces in its east. Kyiv is also pressing western partners for more assistance to help it turn the tide of the war.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to the US this week to try to get the Biden administration behind his “victory plan” and force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table sooner rather than later. But to strike a deal with the Russian president that would not amount to capitulation by Kyiv, Zelenskyy needs greater western support, including unprecedented security guarantees, to help his struggling troops on the frontline.

“We are in desperate need of strong soldiers,” said a commander who goes by the nom de guerre “Lawyer” because he had worked as an attorney before the war.

Senior Ukrainian officials said a recent mobilisation drive had allowed Ukraine to draft about 30,000 soldiers a month since May, when a new conscription law came into force. That is on par with the number of troops Russia has been able to recruit by offering large bonuses and generous salaries.

But commanders on the ground and military analysts have warned that the newly drafted troops are not highly motivated, are psychologically and physically unprepared — and are being killed at an alarming rate as a result.

One commander, whose unit is defending positions around Kurakhove, where Russian forces have made gains in recent weeks, said that “some guys freeze [because] they are too afraid to shoot the enemy, and then they are the ones who leave in body bags or severely wounded”.

After difficult combat stints, many new conscripts go Awol, commanders said. Some return so shell-shocked and exhausted that they are checked into psychiatric wards.

Several bungled rotations in recent months have led to Russia making easier gains than expected towards Pokrovsk.

“We are most vulnerable during rotations,” said the deputy commander. “That’s when Russia is able to advance . . . The infantry is crucial to our defence.”

Seasoned soldiers “are being killed off too quickly”, said another commander on the eastern front, only to be replaced by mostly older men without experience and in worse physical shape.

Age is a key concern — the average person in Ukraine’s military is 45. Of about 30 infantry troops in a unit, said the deputy commander of the 72nd brigade, on average half were in their mid-40s, only five were under 30 and the rest were 50 or older.

“As infantry, you need to run, you need to be strong, you need to carry heavy equipment,” he added. “It’s hard to do that if you aren’t young.”

But the problems start long before the recruits reach the battlefield, the commanders and analysts said.

A former Ukrainian officer who operates the analytical group Frontelligence Insight blamed “long-standing systemic problems that were left unaddressed for years”. Largely composed of mobilised former civilians, the Ukrainian army is led by officers and generals who started their career in Soviet times and had “never been in combat”, he said.

Commanders lay part of the blame on military recruiters: “It would be wise to pay more attention to each person’s characteristics and background to see where the guys best fit instead of sending everyone to the infantry,” said Mykhailo Temper, a battery commander in the 21st battalion of Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade.

“You literally see all layers of society represented [in the infantry],” he added. “Not everyone is fit for the front.”

Much more at the link.

The Economist has related reporting out today, but I’m going to save it for tomorrow night. Or Sunday.

Kyiv:

The Kupiansk front:

Kramatorsk:

Vovchansk:

Pokrovsk:

Here’s a machine translation of the full text of the quoted tweet:

The moon is in the Pokrovsky direction.
Needless to say, colossal work was done to stabilize the area and systematically destroy the enemy. An enemy that has not seen so much since the defense of Bakhmut. For now, we are collecting daily assault actions, but in my opinion, this direction needs more attention from people and state authorities. It is clear that the Pokrovsky direction is not the only difficult one, especially against the background of problems in other lanes, but the unprecedented human resources of Russians are concentrated here. It is necessary to destroy them here and now, not letting them into the big cities, because there will be trouble.

In the near future I will show a little more interesting things, and don’t forget to support the army in such a difficult time for all of us.

Dnipro River, Kherson Oblast:

Izmail, Odesa Oblast:

That’s enough for tonight.

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    21Comments

    2. 2.

      Chris

      By the way, did this sort of restraint ever prevent Russia from doing what it already does against the West?

      This.  It’s absolutely insane.  The Russians have been trying to pull a Dulles Brothers Special on any country in NATO that they can since 2016 at the very latest, including and especially the United States, and eight fucking years later we’re still going… “oh no, we can’t make them mad!  They might come after us!“

      Reply
    3. 3.

      lamh47

      That entire presser with Chump and Zelensky was an embarassment.

      SMH…and this is the fool almost 1/2 the country (based on polling and past as prologue) thinks should be back in the White House…smh. But some of the same folks was worried about Biden…and some folks still got shit to say about Kamala Harris…smh. How u talking bout ur “good relationship with Putin”, when this man and his country is directly at war with Putin!!!!

      Reply
    6. 6.

      J. Arthur Crank

      I really hope you are correct in that Trump has a 30% chance of winning and not around 50% that most of mainstream media seem to be implying.  30% is still too high in any sane world, but the we don’t live there.

      Related to the post:  Can Donald Trump do something that makes him look like an even bigger asshole than he already is?  The answer is of course “yes”.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      wjca

      @gVOR10:

      I presented him our Victory Plan

      But a) it is several pages long, b) there are no pictures, and c) his name isn’t mentioned.  So I have no expectation that he will read it.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Sally

      The exhausted and dignified President Zeleskyy has to demean himself in front of that demented clown. As I said last night, he must dance for his pennies. I am spitting mad.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      KatKapCC

      I imagine Zelensky probably wanted to throw up having to say nice things about Trump and pretend like he thinks Trump gives a single damn about Ukraine.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      way2blue

      @Sally: Nah.  President Zelenskyy didn’t demean himself.  He simply took one for the team.  I felt his pain though…

      Loved the body language in the B&W photo with VP Harris.  Both are relaxed yet alert.  Hoping she’s more astute at weighing risks of hesitation versus action than Biden has been.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Yutsano

      @J. Arthur Crank: ​There were a lot of factors that caused him to pull the inside straight in 2016 that don’t apply to 2024. But, as someone who will existentially suffer if he gets back into office, I have some hope that Harris will prevail. I also don’t trust the American electorate enough to still consider trying to pursue Irish citizenship on my mother’s side.*

      *Grandpa was adopted by a full blooded Irishman who was either born on the Emerald Isle or New York. If the fucking state of Missouri would just allow us to register the adoption record we’re covered at least through my mother. The other play is Canada on my father’s side, but again there’s a dispute on which side of the border my great-grandfather was born on.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      wjca

      @KatKapCC: pretend like he thinks Trump gives a single damn about Ukraine.

      I expect Zelenskyy is clear that Trump does give a single, lone damn about Ukraine.  That is, he cares in that he thinks his hero Putin will give him the time of day, if only briefly, if he contrives to sabotage Ukraine.

      TCFG has been desperate for acceptance by those he admires his whole life.  New York society never would.  US politicians never would.  (Some 2 bit ones would fawn on him under duress.  But even they didn’t mean it.)

      But maybe, in his delusion he thinks, he can get accepted as a fellow autocrat by Putin, Xi, and Kim.  They’ll continue to play him like a cheap drum, of course.  Putin would take Ukraine, and give Trump just enough to keep him onside while he works his way across Europe.  Ditto Xi and Taiwan.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      BretH

      All of President Zelenskyy‘s acting experience stood him well in his meetings with the Orange A$$hole. It must have hurt like hell to stand there and listen to the putrid stuff but like a true statesman he didn’t show a bit of anger or resentment.

      Also, thanks for the comprehensive post Adam!

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Ruckus

      @J. Arthur Crank:

      Yes, even though he is about as much asshole as is humanly possible, (sort of amazing that an assHOLE can weigh over 200 lb) He can and very, very likely will get worse, right up to the moment that life asks for his loner to be returned. I wonder if it will be rebuilt and reissued or will be thrown in life’s dumpster because it is no longer human or useful?

      Reply

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