(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is still doing great. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, it was a long week because of the storm, so I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.
Russia has targeted another hospital. This one a double tap drone attack in Sumy.
Russia just going more and more brutal feeling impunity, committing more atrocities. Double-tap Shahed attack on a city hospital in Sumy. At least 7 killed and dozens injured. The hospital was full of patients. pic.twitter.com/uJi6xggxQR
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 28, 2024
Sumy. Russia hit one of the city’s hospitals with “Shahed” drones. As of now, we know that 8 people have been killed. My condolences to their families and friends. Eleven others have been wounded, and 113 patients have been evacuated from the hospital.
The rescue operation is… pic.twitter.com/liI6SVKvg7
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 28, 2024
Sumy. Russia hit one of the city’s hospitals with “Shahed” drones. As of now, we know that 8 people have been killed. My condolences to their families and friends. Eleven others have been wounded, and 113 patients have been evacuated from the hospital.
The rescue operation is ongoing as we continue to address the aftermath and save lives. We are doing everything possible to provide our people with the help they need.
Everyone in the world who speaks about this war must pay attention to what Russia is targeting. They are waging war on hospitals, civilian objects, and people’s lives. Only strength can force Russia into peace. Peace through strength is the only right way. I thank everyone who supports us on this path.
The death toll currently stands at 10.
And, of course, the Russians continue their targeting of civilians in Kharkiv:
Russian attacks killed four civilians today in Kharkiv Oblast. A Supreme Court judge delivering humanitarian aid to locals was among the victims, with his car directly struck by a russian FPV drone. An aerial bomb strike claimed three more lives.
I can’t embed the tweet at the link because X/Twitter won’t generate an embed code for it.
Today, russia struck Slatine village in the Kharkiv region, with aerial bombs, killing at least 3 people. russia kills people in the Kharkiv region every single day.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) September 28, 2024
I want to make something very, very clear here, though I know most of you are aware and tracking this already. There is no legitimate military target at any of the hospitals, medical clinics, residential buildings, hotels, restaurants, supermarkets, groceries, book binderies, post offices, and all the other civilian targets the Russians have attacked in Ukraine. These aren’t dual use facilities, nor have the Ukrainians emplaced weapon systems or ammo depots or barracks next to them. Each and every one of these Russian attacks on civilian targets and infrastructure is a violation of International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC).
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Received Full Support for Our Strategy of Approaching Peace – Peace Through Strength – Address by the President
28 September 2024 – 21:25
We are on our way home from the United States. Many tasks have been accomplished during this visit.
I thank President Biden for the largest support package ever – nearly $8 billion. It includes weapons for the frontline, and air defense for our cities, and the expansion of the F-16 training mission.
I presented the Victory Plan, and we agreed that we will soon be discussing our next steps with our allies in the Ramstein format in Germany. October is the time for decisions.
We have an important follow-up to the set of security agreements – now the G7+ Declaration on Reconstruction. A clear signal that, together with our allies, we will restore normal life after the war. More than 30 countries have already joined Ukraine in this effort. There will be bilateral agreements as well – we will expand the number of countries. I thank the United States and President Biden for this leadership.
I thank the United States Congress for their unwavering bipartisan support and willingness to help us – to help us prevail. Senators, members of the House of Representatives – everyone who sees how much we can do together. We received full support for our strategy of approaching peace – peace through strength.
As was important for Ukraine, we held meetings with both U.S. presidential candidates. Meeting with Kamala Harris – all the important accents were voiced, almost an hour-long conversation. Meeting with Donald Trump – it was our second meeting since 2019 and it happened right now, when it is so important. Thank you for your attention to the details of our Victory Plan.
I thank everyone who helps to stop Russian terror and who understands that only strength can force Russia to respect the rules and follow the basic documents of the world. Life is based on principles and law when it cannot be destroyed by violence. That is why unity is so necessary. Unity of the allies, unity of the world to stop Russia, this war, and to ensure a real fair peace. The peace that Ukraine wants more than anyone else in the world, and that will definitely come.
Glory to Ukraine!
Lithuania:
We are grateful to our Lithuanian friends for a new military aid package and their staunch support!
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/1OUkQinkxS— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 28, 2024
Hungary:
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) September 28, 2024
The AP has the details:
Hungary’s most popular opposition figure called for the resignation of one of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s closest aides on Thursday over statements he made suggesting that Hungary wouldn’t have defended itself against a Russian invasion, unlike Ukraine.
The aide, Balázs Orbán, who isn’t related to the prime minister, said on his podcast on Wednesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had made an “irresponsible” decision by opting to militarily defend his country after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
He said that Hungary had learned from its anti-Soviet uprising in 1956 — which was eventually crushed by the Red Army, killing as many as 3,000 civilians and destroying much of the capital Budapest — that “precious Hungarian lives” must be treated with caution rather than “offering them up” for defense.
“Every country has the right to decide its own destiny for itself,” Balázs Orbán said. “But based on ’56, we wouldn’t have done what President Zelenskyy did two and a half years ago, because that was irresponsible.”
The leader of Hungary’s strongest opposition party, Péter Magyar, wrote in a post on social media that the statement “humiliated the memory of the thousands of Hungarian freedom fighters, hundreds of whom — unlike Balázs Orbán — were willing to sacrifice their lives for the freedom and independence of their country.”
Balázs Orbán is the political director of the nationalist prime minister and one of his closest advisers. He has been instrumental in devising much of Hungary’s foreign and domestic strategy, and pursued close relationships with certain segments of the U.S. Republican Party that are aligned with former President Donald Trump.
His government has taken an adversarial position toward neighboring Ukraine, and sought to block, delay or water down European Union efforts to provide financial and military support to Kyiv and to pass sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine.
Such efforts have led to accusations from many European leaders that Hungary is acting to divide the EU and advance Russian interests.
Hungary’s Cold War-era anti-Soviet uprising looms large in the country’s consciousness as a symbol of its heroic struggle for independence and self determination. Some Hungarians view their government’s close ties to Russia today as a betrayal of the 1956 revolution’s efforts to force Soviet soldiers out of the country.
On Thursday, Magyar called for Balázs Orbán’s resignation by Oct. 23, the 68th anniversary of the revolution.
“Such a man cannot hold public office alongside the Hungarian Prime Minister,” Magyar wrote.
In a video on Facebook later on Thursday, Orbán said that his words had been “twisted,” and blamed “pro-war propaganda” for seeking to involve Hungary in the war in Ukraine.
More at the link.
Poland:
🇵🇱🇺🇦 “The war will end only when Ukraine returns its internationally recognized territories, including Crimea”, – Duda
“In my opinion, if even a piece of Ukrainian land remains in Russian hands and the world recognizes the fact of this annexation, it will mean that Russian… pic.twitter.com/CNH1bs1yDR
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) September 27, 2024
🇵🇱🇺🇦 “The war will end only when Ukraine returns its internationally recognized territories, including Crimea”, – Duda
“In my opinion, if even a piece of Ukrainian land remains in Russian hands and the world recognizes the fact of this annexation, it will mean that Russian imperialism has eaten up what it wanted to eat, and it will want to take more territory, so this war will return. In my opinion, Russia will attack other countries again. And to prevent this from happening, Russia must be punished for its aggression in Ukraine and lose this war there on the fields of Ukraine.”
He added that Poland should not consider any plan “B” in this matter, although “many people today are waiting for this war to end so that they can get back to dealing with Russia.”
For the last two months, Ukraine has been reporting jamming and malfunctions of drones, causing them to crash or fly off back to Russia or into Belarus. The hit rate has dropped to between ~2-10%. Between Sep-23 and Feb-24 the rate was ~18-21%.
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 28, 2024
Todays shootdown rate is 69 out of 73 (95%) while 1 flew back to Russia and the location of another 3 was lost while they were in Ukrainian airspace, the Ukrainian Air Force says. So today’s hit rate could have been 0%. pic.twitter.com/szpkOzvkXR
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 28, 2024
Kherson Oblast:
15.20 Today, Russian drones injured:
6 civilians:
💔Women, 23, 85, 56, 42, 72
💔Man, 68
⚫️Attacked a public bus
It is a sunny Saturday. This is a central street. People are hiding.
This is a massacre. #SaveKherson pic.twitter.com/PXL6fZItjE
— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) September 28, 2024
BMP-2 IFV and its crew are performing the combat mission in the Kherson region.
📹: 37th Marine Brigade pic.twitter.com/gONs10lg7Q
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 28, 2024
Ni shagu nazad!
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC CONTENT!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
Russian artillery fires at a group of Russian infantrymen who were about to to surrender to the 33rd Brigade of Ukraine. Some of the surrendering Russians were able to reach Ukrainian positions, others were not.https://t.co/CH73IFxfyq pic.twitter.com/NSyl9fqD7C
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 28, 2024
ALL CLEAR!!
Kriegsforscher has a new assessment regarding the Kursk cross border offensive:
Short and very unusual thread for this page — about the enemy in Kursk area.
My friend showed me a map that he captured during the attack. It has been redrawn by @wildwildmapper
In this thread I will show you the amount of enemy forces before and one month after the invansion🧵
My opinion as to this operation hasn’t changed. I am strongly negative as to that operation from the military point of view.
But in the same time I am a supporter from the political perspective.If it’s a war two sides must suffer.Link for download:Nevertheless, there are two reasons why I write this article.
1) I hope that in the future we will a high quality analysis as to that operation. I hate being an alive witness how people rewriting history.
Суджа direction. Day before the operation. Right flank.
Information that was drawn by the officers of 1434 regiment. Due to obvious reasons decided not to add info that the enemy had about our forces.
Quite interesting that 13 TR is not mentioned here but was deployed.
Суджа direction. Day before the operation. Centre (kinda).
They were covered quite not bad by their artillery. Including the fact that no one paid attention to the border line UAF could have only dreamed about this kind of amount of artillery forces.
Суджа. Day before the operation. The city.
Russian defence near the city was mostly based on 17 and 18 battalions of 488 regiment and 380 regiment (this regiment wasn’t a classic one with 3 infantry battalions, tb etc. I would rather say 2 infantry battalions).
Russian artillery in Kursk oblast. Day before the operation.
– BM-21 battalion;
– 98 artillery pieces;
– 71 mortarsA short conclusion: that’s huge. With a good coordination you make any breakthrough almost impossible to happen.
Глухів direction.
Mostly covered by Russian VDV:
– 1 battalion of 217 regiment;
– 3 battalion of 234 regiment;That’s why we see here 2S9. Amount of MT-12 (here and at another two direction) surprises.
Теткіно direction.
The biggest amount of Russian artillery in Kursk oblast. Including heavy artillery such as 2A36 & 2A65.
Суджа direction.
Almost full artillery regiment (let me remind you that right it’s not very often that Russian artillery battalion has 18 guns. Quite often 12).
So, as you might’ve noticed they had more then enough firepower.
From Теткіно to Суджа they had:
– regiment: 3;
– airborne or mechanised battalions: 3;
– rifle battalions: 8;
– reserve: 3 battalions of infantry and 35 tanks;
– artillery pieces: 137One month later the situation changed a lot. The amount of Russian forces increased to 35 000 soldiers and, approximately, 90-100 tanks.
A lot of forces were moved from Kramatorsk, Vovchansk and Oskil directions.
Right flank. 10.09.24 (since then situation changed a lot).
Marines from 810 & 40 brigade, 83 brigade from Vovchansk direction, regiment from 44 AC with their tank battalions in reserve.
Centre. 10.09.24 (since then situation changed a lot).
Still 810 marines, airborne from 56 regiment (their full regiment arrived from Robotyne area), 51 and 137 regiments from Kramatorsk direction and other units.
Left flank. 10.09.24 (since then situation changed a lot).
Marines from 155 brigade, VDV and others. Right now 119 regiment from 106 division arrived there.
Obviously, Russians apart from elite infantry moved more artillery to that area. For example, artillery battalion (2S19 and 2S5) from 944 artillery regiment was moved from Pokrovsk direction to Kursk area.
They also used in that area newly formed 88 and 90 sapper regiments.
And the 6th sapper brigade from the 1th tank army (Kharkiv oblast).
Russians use there a lot of guided bombs. For example, at the 5th of September they used 89 guided bombs (67% of all bombs that were dropped at that day at whole frontline in Ukraine).
So the second reason why I write this thread 🧵 that my company needs a PSV-14 night vision and three antennas.
So I ask you to help! The whole price is 5000$:
– BMAC:
– PayPal: [email protected]
Samara Oblast, Russia:
The explosive device was detonated while the Russian suply train was moving, but it was not powerful enough to completely destroy the bridge along with the train. https://t.co/QoRxaRGDJs pic.twitter.com/0DoaTprCNq
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 28, 2024
Krasnodar Krai and Rostov Oblast:
Video of fire claimed to be at Yeysk, Krasnodarsky Krai, Russia. Locals reported explosions and work of air defenses. The port town has an air base from which Russian/Iranian Shahed drones are launched to attack Ukraine, and which bases Su-34 fighter-bombers and Su-35 fighters. pic.twitter.com/QoklNC6RXn
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 28, 2024
https://t.co/3n1mER4kDs https://t.co/WYS2hHXS4J
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) September 28, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron.
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Happy Caturday!
This is a reminder to do the right thing and #StandWithUkraine.📷: 117th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/jwbUnydUqg
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 28, 2024
Open thread!
Villago Delenda Est
Adam, yet again I am compelled to salute your intrepid work bringing this information to us that the MSM is reluctant to. Russian artillery firing on Russian troops! It’s like WWII all over again. This is just savage.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: Thank you for the kind words. You’re most welcome.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Torrey
Adam, I join Jay and Villago Delenda Est in thanking you for going through what it takes to gather and present this information. I am sure it takes a great deal of mental fortitude. I also wanted to express my pleasure in hearing both that you and yours managed OK in the hurricane and, as a person who had a dog with cancer, my very great pleasure and relief in hearing how Rosie is doing.
I’m still making my way through the article you posted last night from The Atlantic giving the history of the response to the October 7 attack. The point about Biden being from a generation that remembers the fear of escalation (as well as the generally risk-averse Silent Generation, although I’m not sure how much I buy into the “Generations” mentalities claims) was interesting. It reminded me of something that was written by I-don’t-remember-who (John Rogers sticks in my mind, but I’m not at all sure he was the writer in question) about what the world would be like if the normal human lifespan was 200 years. When World War I was in the works, a large number of American politicians would have been able to remember their brothers and friends being going down under Redcoat fire and would judge our relationships with Britain and Germany with that in mind, it’s clear, as you have noted, that Biden, for whatever reason, is particularly risk-averse when it comes to Ukraine. It’s very like the point being made now about Kamala Harris: she has never known a California with a sane, functioning Republican Party, so she doesn’t assume that hopefully reaching across-the-aisle is the only way to get things done.
Of course, generational memory, or age, may or may not be what is driving the way Biden’s administration is responding to the Ukraine situation (or the developing constellation of interlocking situations in the Middle East). But it is worth remembering, as you pointed out, that even people we consider good or skilled are not always driven by clear and unbiased assessments of a situation. (Frustrating as well, though.)
Elizabelle
OT: Adam, the WaPost seems to have a good roundup of recipes for the High Holidays, and so many of them look delicious. Wanted to be sure you saw this, given you have chef skills in addition to research/evaluation and caring for the dog lanterns.
Gift link, although the Bezos post still wants an email address. Fake is fine, as you know.
Build your High Holidays menu with recipes for brisket, kugel and more
Choose from starters, mains, sides and desserts for your High Holidays.
way2blue
Thank you Adam. Even your ‘light’ posts fully convey the crushing reality of war.
As for Biden (perhaps) being risk adverse owing to hard-wired fears instilled during the era of backyard bomb shelters—avoiding risks by hedging—paradoxically creates its own risks.
KatKapCC
Someone ask Orbán how Putin’s dick tastes.
These are the two men Trump seems to admire most. And there are millions of people in this country who want him to be president again. I hate this world sometimes.
dirt_first
So, if it would be “irresponsible” for Hungary (per Balázs Orbán) to fight back against a Russian invasion, why is Hungary in NATO?
Thanks for all your work Dr. Silverman.
Ryan
You know, some of us call it Xitter.