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You are here: Home / Political Fundraising / Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24 / Heads Up – Enter Nebraska – In a New Way

Heads Up – Enter Nebraska – In a New Way

by | 51 Comments

This post is in: ,

I talked with our Four Directions peeps this morning to let them know that we had completed our latest $30k fundraising for Four Directions AZ.  And I let them know that we are about to embark on another round of funding for Four Directions MT, because I’m tired of all the “Jon Tester can’t win” gloom, which is bullshit.  I believe that you fight hard, and the chips will fall where they fall.  No regrets.

I also let them know that I got pissed off at Josh Marshall’s nay-saying about Nebraska, dismissing the likelihood of a win even though the latest polls show them as neck and neck – so we’re about to do another round of fundraising for Dan Osborne, the Independent who has the incumbent on the ropes.

I was thinking of calling the upcoming efforts for Jon Tester and Dan Osborn “The Senate’s not dead yet!“, or possibly “A Flip and a Keep!”

Our friends at Four Directions have put me in touch with the someone close to the Dan Osborn campaign, who in turn is putting me in touch with the Field Director for the Osborn campaign.  So this looks to be a great opportunity for us to help with this Senate race in a very boots-on-the-ground way!

I’ll give you all an update after we talk.

In the meantime: this is the same ad, but not on twitter.  If you find this on YouTube, let me know.

https://app.frame.io/presentations/523bf80a-0db4-4eca-a9e4-6b2e66da3fef

Here’s a great article:

Princeton Election Consortium  (aka Sam Wang)

But then, enter Nebraska.

The Nebraska race escaped my attention until several close polls came up. There are not many surveys, but Republican incumbent Senator Deb Fischer only leads her challenger, independent Dan Osborn, by a median of 2 percentage points. That is rather amazing, considering that in 2018, she won re-election by 19 points. What’s going on?

First, Senator Fischer is pretty low-profile. She has not made much news during her time in the Senate. She did not cast aspersions on the honest conduct of the 2020 Presidential election, which distinguished her from her election-denier colleagues. That might make her a bit bland by current Republican standards.

Dan Osborn is an interesting candidate. He’s a steamfitter by trade, and became well known in 2021 for leading a successful strike at a Kellogg’s plant in Omaha. This year he competed for the Democratic Senate nomination – but then turned it down. Walking away from the Democratic Party is probably good for one’s reputation in Nebraska. And he’s gotten the support of the Legal Marijuana Now Party (LMN), which has ballot access in Nebraska but withdrew its candidate to make way for Osborn.

Osborn trails narrowly by a median of 2 points (see FiveThirtyEight, which provides our data feed).

But in one survey, when respondents were read his biography and Senator Fischer’s, he jumped to a 53%-39% lead. So he has considerable upside potential.

I don’t know if he can go the distance; that might be tough for an independent. Recall that in the 2014 Kansas Senate race, Greg Orman ran as an independent and kept things close, as I wrote at NewYorker.com at the time, but he faltered at the end. But for now, Osborn might be a game-changer.

Also, great job hitting our goals for Arizona – for Four Directions and Worker Power!

Anyway, no thermometers yet but I wanted to let you know about one of the directions we’ll be heading to this week.

We’re also going back to North Carolina this week, which I will tell you about in a separate post.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

51Comments

  1. 1.

    WaterGirl

    I’ve been MIA for a couple of days because my Covid booster kicked my ass.  So you can use this thread to catch me up on any donations you might have made for a match for either AZ candidates or AZ Supreme Court & Abortion Protections.

  2. 2.

    FastEdD

    Boy, if Osborn were to flip a US Senate seat, that would be a big step to holding on to the Senate.

    Let’s go.

  3. 3.

    Nelle

    A friend was hired by the Harris campaign to go to Omaha about two weeks ago, so I figure they think there’s a good chance.

  4. 4.

    WaterGirl

    @Nelle: Yeah, we can argue about whether the resources from the DNC for FL and TX are head-fakes or the real deal.

    But this year COULD be a blue wave year, so it’s not outside the realm of possibility that Dems could win in places that are unexpected.

    So if there was ever a cycle where it makes sense to spend resources in unexpected places, I think this is the time.

  5. 5.

    WaterGirl

    @FastEdD: I was thinking of a $10,000 goal if we were giving to the campaign generally, but I will for sure think more than if our funds can go to boots on the ground and not campaign ads, for instance.

  6. 6.

    WaterGirl

    Speaking of Senate races, the connection they make for timing is Harris becoming the nominee, but it also coincides with the timing of Four Directions ramping up in Montana.  I know which one I think makes the most sense. :-)

  9. 9.

    unrelatedwaffle

    I truly wholeheartedly from the depths of my soul thank you for all the hard work you do identifying the places our dollars can make the most impact. I always feel good and less doom-y about a donation I make here. It really matters and I want you to know how much I appreciate it.

  11. 11.

    H.E.Wolf

    @unrelatedwaffle: ​I truly wholeheartedly from the depths of my soul thank you for all the hard work you do identifying the places our dollars can make the most impact. I always feel good and less doom-y about a donation I make here. It really matters and I want you to know how much I appreciate it.

     Quoted for truth!

  14. 14.

    Another Scott

    @Memory Pallas: We know who his opponent would caucus with and which leader she would support.

    Osborn’s platform has some good things and some wacky things that have no chance of passing (as he recognizes – congressional term limits).

    He’s worth supporting to keep the GQP out of power.

    Eyes on the prizes.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  15. 15.

    realbtl

    Montana media report- 90% anti-Sheehy and the few “pro” are people who look like the much resented out of staters whining. Also lots of pro abortion protection some tying Sheehy to it.

  16. 16.

    Yutsano

    We’re losing two independents from the caucus so adding one more can’t hurt right? Not to mention he did originally try to run with the Democratic party but then declined it, which was probably smart in a state like Nebraska. Honestly, I’m all for getting that useless rubber stamp Deb Fischer out of office.

  18. 18.

    WaterGirl

    @realbtl: There is going to be news in Montana on Monday afternoon. That’s all I can say for the moment, but it should be good for the good guys.

  21. 21.

    trollhattan

    If you’re leery of Rasmussen polling you’re not wrong to be.

    September 29, 2024 at 9:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard

    Rasmussen Reports, which claims to be a nonpartisan polling firm, is reportedly giving Donald Trump’s campaign previews of its results before the public sees them, the New Republic reports.

  23. 23.

    wjca

    @Mousebumples:  link if anyone wants to boost:

    Apparently there’s an option to allow viewing without having to have an account and sign in.  But the default is to require sign in.  That is currently on for you.  Which means I, and probable some others here, can’t see it.

  24. 24.

    Mousebumples

    @wjca: yup, I forgot to note that. I figured if someone wanted to boost it on bsky, they’d probably have an account.

    And I linked the thermometer from the 2024 Targeted Fundraising thread, so there isn’t much that’s unique to that link that you can’t find here. 😊

  26. 26.

    Geminid

    @WaterGirl: It sounds like Osborne might be a blue-collar version of Angus King if elected. Or a Tester with an I after his name. Maybe he’d pal around with John Fetterman.

  28. 28.

    Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

    @Geoduck:

    They decided to give that guy who beat a neighbor’s dog to death with a shovel for annoying him like 15 or 20 years ago column space. Like why?

  30. 30.

    wjca

    @TBone: the report reveals illegal collusion, not merely bias.

    Collusion?  Yes.  Deceptive?  Yes.  But illegal?  Not clear on which law(s) they might have broken.

  35. 35.

    jonas

    @trollhattan: Wouldn’t be surprised if someone at the Trump campaign called up a contact at Rasmussen and asked them to do this as a favor to the poor aide who is assigned to follow Trump around with printouts of positive press coverage. A good Rasmussen poll in the morning saves a lot of ketchup and dry cleaning bills for the drapes at Mar-A-Lago later in the day.

  36. 36.

    Jackie

    @FastEdD:

    if Osborn were to flip a US Senate seat, that would be a big step to holding on to the Senate.

    Has Osborn said he’ll caucus with the Dems? If not, he may be another Sinema – or worse by caucusing with the GQP.

    I haven’t seen any info about which direction he leans.

  38. 38.

    Anoniminous

    @WaterGirl:

    They dropped Rasmussen back in March.  I can’t find anything saying they’ve been reinstated.

    Adding:

    sorry to hear of your booster reaction.

    I didn’t have one.  Well, aside from walking up and down the streets of my town shouting “ALL POWER TO THE COMMUNIST PARTY AS THE VANGUARD OF THE PROLETARIAT  UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF COMRADE LENIN” for a couple of hours.

  39. 39.

    Steve LaBonne

    @unrelatedwaffle: I want to second that motion. I’m a retiree with a very limited budget for political contributions, and WaterGirl’s threads are incredibly valuable for helping me make effective choices.

  40. 40.

    Barry

    @Jackie: “Has Osborn said he’ll caucus with the Dems? If not, he may be another Sinema – or worse by caucusing with the GQP.”

     

    The current coin is ‘tails’.  Let’s flip it and see what happens.

  41. 41.

    azlib

    Nebraska would be tough, but it is a cheap media market. A play there makes some sense as long as the money cannot be usefully spent elsewhere or can be used to divert Republican resources.

  43. 43.

    WaterGirl

    He’s a steamfitter by trade, and became well known in 2021 for leading a successful strike at a Kellogg’s plant in Omaha. This year he competed for the Democratic Senate nomination – but then turned it down. Walking away from the Democratic Party is probably good for one’s reputation in Nebraska.

    I think it’s fair to say that someone who led a successful strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha is likely to vote with the Dems on at least some of the things that are important.  And we’ll sure never get that out of the Republic who currently holds the seat.

    There will be plenty of donation choices here for anyone who has the funds and is concerned about the future.

  45. 45.

    Marcopolo

    So I actually gave money to Osborn a few days ago.  I do not expect him to win (generally a partisan red state reverts back to the mean on Election Day) but who knows?

    As for who he’ll caucus with:  he’s remarked favorably a few times about some past NE senator who stayed truly independent during their term in office.  One doesn’t have to vote for either the D or R nominee for Sen majority leader (or join either caucus for that matter) but I’d imagine it would be a lot harder to get action on any of your priorities if you stay on the outside.

    For Watergirl:  after donating I did get an email inviting me to join a Zoom fundraiser tomorrow (9/30) at 5pm.  I did not reply cause I wasn’t interested & as a result did not get the follow up info but if you have an Osborn campaign connection maybe ask them for the info & post it for the BJ folks.

  46. 46.

    Princess

    @WaterGirl: plus, he has good reasons for not advertising he’ll caucus with the Dems in a state-wide NE race.

    it makes me wonder if independent senators are going to be a growing trend. I could see Romney running as an independent if he runs at all next time. I could see Maine having two independent senators.

  48. 48.

    WaterGirl

    @WaterGirl: I don’t agree with everything on his list, but I would hate to see the platform of the incumbent.

    I couldn’t find anything about a platform for Osborn’s opponent, Deb Fisher.  This is what came up under Legislation, which I thought would tell us something.

    Heads Up – Enter Nebraska – In a New Way

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