Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

I see no possible difficulties whatsoever with this fool-proof plan.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

The choice is between normal and crazy.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

The new republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

The words do not have to be perfect.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

I did not have this on my fuck 2022 bingo card.

Their boy Ron is an empty plastic cup that will never know pudding.

It’s a doggy dog world.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 949: Russia KABs Against Zaporizhzhia

War for Ukraine Day 949: Russia KABs Against Zaporizhzhia

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A painting by Ukrainian artist NEIVANMADE. The words "NEVER AGAIN" are repeated over and over, from left to right and top to bottom, in a faded, washed out black against a white background. Red, the color of blood, runs and drips down across 2/3rds of the painting. "WHILE YOU TOLERATE TYRANTS" is written/painted in the bottom white corner below the three rows of "NEVER AGAIN".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing very well. She has her second to last treatment tomorrow. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, everyone is most welcome. I appreciate the kind thoughts and, as we’ve previously discussed, look forward to not having to do these anymore. If I’m not replying to you it’s not that I’m ignoring your comment, it’s that I go to be pretty early as I have to be up very early as some of my clients are a number of time zones ahead of me and I have to be able to get to them during their work days.

Last night in comments, way2blue remarked:

As for Biden (perhaps) being risk adverse owing to hard-wired fears instilled during the era of backyard bomb shelters—avoiding risks by hedging—paradoxically creates its own risks.

The dilemma for policy makers, strategists, and decision makers is how much risk to assume. If you’ve decided you’ll accept very little to no risk, as President Biden has, then you are at the whim of everyone else – ally, partner, peer competitor, hostile state and non-state actors – and especially how much risk they’re willing to assume. The late GEN Odierno had a formulation, which most people misunderstood:

Shape, Fight, Win

Almost everyone thought he was saying shape so you can fight and win. This was not what he was saying. What he was actually conveying was far more subtle and far more strategically foresighted: shape the Operational Environment (OE) so that conditions are set in a more favorable way so that we won’t have to fight. However, in case we do have to fight, we have set the conditions to ensure that we can win.

You can’t do this if you do not or will not accept any risk. Rather, others will set the Operational Environment for you, which is what has happened in regard to Russia and the Middle East. The one place that President Biden and his natsec team are actively trying to shape, which is the Asian-Pacific OE, they are doing so based on a significant misunderstanding of the PRC as a peer competitor that is also, sometimes, a hostile actor, as well as its political, military, human geography, and civil environment.

The Russians opened up on Zaporizhzhia with KABs today.

Today, Russia struck Zaporizhzhia with aerial bombs. Ordinary residential buildings were damaged, and the entrance of one building was destroyed. The city’s infrastructure and railway were also damaged.

In total, 13 people were injured, and two were rescued from under the rubble. I thank all the emergency services for their rapid response and providing the necessary assistance. The rubble clearing is still ongoing.

This week alone, the Russian army has used nearly 900 aerial bombs, over 300 “Shahed” drones, and more than 40 missiles. This Russian terror knows no pause, and it can only be stopped by the unity of the world—unity in supporting Ukraine and unity in putting pressure on Russia for the war.

The death toll now stands at 14.

I whole heartedly agree with my former colleague. Bob was a student, though not in my seminar, at USAWC during my first year and then joined the faculty during my final three years there. He retired at the rank of colonel and is a Functional Area (FA) 48 C/E, which is a Eurasian Foreign Area Officer (FAO). His knowledge and understanding of the security situation in Europe, as a senior practitioner, is extensive.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Every Day, Russia Uses About a Hundred Guided Aerial Bombs Against Ukraine – Address by the President

29 September 2024 – 20:18

Dear Ukrainians!

Today in Zaporizhzhia, 14 people were injured following a Russian strike. The rubble is being cleared all day long. 2 people were rescued from under the rubble. The aerial bombs hit ordinary residential buildings, ordinary city facilities. Today, Russians also struck Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Sumy regions with guided aerial bombs. In Hlukhiv, several residential buildings were damaged. In the Kharkiv region, apartment buildings, energy and medical infrastructure were damaged. And it is a daily Russian terror. Every day, Russia uses about a hundred guided aerial bombs against Ukraine. And this is a constant reminder to all our partners who can help that we need more long-range capabilities for Ukraine, we need more air defense for Ukraine, we need more sanctions against Russia. Now, this week, during our various talks in America, our position and arguments have been heard in as much detail as possible. So that there are no more questions. And the teams – ours and those of our partners – have already begun preparing for “Ramstein.” In a week and a half, in October, at “Ramstein,” we have to decide, together with other leaders, on common steps and a common vision of the ways to increase pressure on Russia for this war and for the sake of peace. A just peace.

Today, I would like to especially acknowledge our people who have been saving lives and helping all those suffering from Russian attacks throughout this time. I extend my gratitude to the entire team of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, especially to Oleksiy Sukhorukov, Andriy Pavlenko, Ostap Tretiak, Ihor Koriahin, and Dmytro Borodatyi – employees of the SES in the Zaporizhzhia region, one of the most challenging areas. Also, our Dnipropetrovsk region: Volodymyr Zhushman, Vadym Derkach, Stanislav Lichmanenko, Ivan Podoliak, Ivan Khudoliy – these guys are employees of the SES. And our Sumy region: Ivan Sakhno, Andriy Nahornyi, Yehor Synytsyn, Danylo Suniov, and Oleksandr Protsyk have particularly distinguished themselves in recent weeks. I am grateful to you and all your colleagues from the SES in the Sumy region.

And one more thing. I want to acknowledge the officers of the National Police of Ukraine working in the Dnipropetrovsk region, who rescued people after the Russian strike on the police department in Kryvyi Rih. These are Police Captain Kateryna Tupa, Lieutenant Colonel Mykola Harmash, and Police Colonel Inna Vlasova – thank you! Thank you to everyone who protects our people and does everything to help Ukraine get through this difficult time, endure, and achieve its victory – its peace.

Glory to Ukraine!

Zchor Babyn Yar!

Today marks the 83rd anniversary of the Babyn Yar tragedy.

On September 29-30, 1941, in just two days, the Nazis shot over 30,000 Jews in Kyiv. Entire families—men, children, women, even those pregnant—were forced to walk down the “Road of Death” to the ravine. The scale of this evil is still hard to perceive.

In total, approximately 100,000 people were killed at Babyn Yar during the Nazi occupation. Nearly the entire Jewish community of Kyiv was murdered, along with those who tried to save them. Other nationalities also fell victims.

Babyn Yar is a terrifying symbol, showing that the most heinous crimes occur when the world chooses to ignore, remain silent, stay indifferent, and lacks the determination to stand up against evil.

When the eyes of the world are closed, humanity loses.

Babyn Yar is vivid proof of the atrocities that regimes are capable of when led by leaders who rely on intimidation and violence. At any time, they are no different. But the world’s response should be different. This is the lesson the world should have learned. We must guard humanity, life, and justice.

We must defend ourselves against evil.

Eternal memory to all the victims of the Nazis. Eternal condemnation to everyone guilty of the murders at Babyn Yar.

September 29-30, 1941 | The massacre in Babi Yar.
Under the supervision of Einsatzgruppe C, a special team of German SS troops supported by other German units and local collaborators began the murder of Jews of Kyiv.

In two days 33,771 Jews were murdered. And these were just the first of many other victims killed in this ravine until 1943.

Learn more: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babi_Yar

Denmark:

🇩🇰🇺🇦Denmark will provide about €560 million for the purchase of weapons directly from Ukrainian defense industry enterprises — €390 million will come from frozen Russian assets.

Earlier this year, Denmark completed a pilot project that financed 18 units of Ukrainian-made ‘Bohdana’ self propelled howitzers (for about €50 million), part of which you can see on the photo.

https://fmn.dk/da/nyheder/2024/danmark-og-ukraine-enige-om-milliardinvestering/

Lithuania:

Kherson:

The drone manhunt in Kherson continues, russians dropping grenades on civilians, cars, and buildings, killing more and more.

In Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia, russian glide bombs target civilians daily, often obliterating entire blocks and murdering dozens.

On the other hand, we have eternal political debate, escalation management, and restrictions. I feel like a character in some kind of a dystopian novela. Or maybe it’s a nightmare?

The Kupyansk front:

Toretsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Kharkiv:

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Here’s the machine translation of the tweet:

In the Kursk direction, the Russians tried to use their newest “analog gun” T-90M. But their “Breakthrough” broke a little along the way 🤷‍♂️

#14uasRegiment #14окремийПолкБпАК

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

Volgograd and Yesyk, Russia:

Russia’s city of Yeysk sits on the Azov Sea coast, looks across at #Ukraine‘s southern coastline. It has a military airfield and several large military enclosures within the small city. It’s location is ideal for launching Shahed kamikaze drones & so hopefully Ukraine struck its drone storage warehouse last night.

Here’s a great assessment of the Ukrainian strikes on Russian military sites, including ammo depots and airfields, by Estonian Reserve Soldier Artur Rehi:

This morning, Ukrainian drones struck several important military facilities deep inside Russia. Among the targets hit were Voronezh, Volgograd, the airfield in Eysk, and Rostov. Of particular note was the attack on the military arsenal in Koluban, where not only Russian
1/14Image
ammunition but also Iranian ballistic missiles stored there were destroyed. These attacks were part of a new wave of air operations aimed at disrupting supply chains and weakening the enemy’s military infrastructure. Ukrainian forces have previously struck large arsenals,
2/14Image
including a strategically important warehouse in Toropets, which significantly complicated the supply of the Russian army. These operations are part of a general plan and once again demonstrate Ukraine’s consistency in its actions. Ukraine will win, but when this happens
3/14Image
greatly depends on its allies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explained in one of his recent speeches: “The plan for victory is to strengthen Ukraine. That is why we ask our friends, our allies, to strengthen us. This is very important. I think we are closer to peace
4/14Image
than we think. We are closer to the end of the war. We just need to be very strong, very strong.” He said these words during his visit to the United States. During this trip, Zelensky met with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, as well as with congressional leaders, including the
5/14Image
Speaker of the House of Representatives and senators, with whom he discussed the need to continue arms supplies and economic assistance. The United States has allocated a new aid package to Ukraine. The US Department of Defense announced the allocation of a new military aid
6/14Image
package to Ukraine on September 25, 2024. This package is $ 375 million. Following this, on September 26, the US Department of Defense announced the allocation of another military aid package to Ukraine in the amount of $ 2.4 billion, but this time within the framework
7/14Image
of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. AGM-154A JSOW long-range cluster air-guided munitions were included for the first time in the package. The package includes missiles, air defense, artillery shells and much more. Zelensky also met with Donald Trump. This
8/14Image
meeting caused mixed reactions. His stance on Ukraine has been inconsistent, raising questions among observers and diplomats. Unlike Biden and Congress’ clear support for Ukraine, Trump’s rhetoric has been more evasive and has not provided clear guarantees of continued
9/14Image
assistance if he returns to power. Nevertheless, Zelenskyy has tried to convey to Trump the importance of supporting Ukraine for global stability and security. The plan for victory requires the continued support of allies, without limitations and in full. Zelenskyy
10/14Image
has repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine needs weapons, finances, and political support from the West to effectively counter Russian aggression and speed up the end of the war. Despite the difficulties and mixed political signals, Ukraine counts on continued support from all
11/14Image
its allies, both in Europe and the United States. Attacks on major military installations, such as the arsenal in Koluban, where Iranian weapons shipments were also destroyed, and the ongoing operation in the Kursk region are important elements of this plan. These military
12/14Image
actions not only undermine the capabilities of Russian troops, but also play an important political role. The successes of the Ukrainian army strengthen the country’s position on the international stage,
13/14Image
add weight in negotiations with allies and show the world that Ukraine is ready and able to defend its independence and defeat Russia.
14/14Image

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here is some adjacent material.

Here’s the machine translation of the tweet:

The cat was saved

Fuck you all, you bastards

Open thread!

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    37Comments

    1. 1.

      Mary

      Adam, I am so glad to hear that Rosie is doing so well. She is such a fortunate doggie to get such love and care. And thanks for all the information each evening about Ukraine. Much appreciated.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      Chris

      You can’t do this if you do not or will not accept any risk. Rather, others will set the Operational Environment for you, which is what has happened in regard to Russia and the Middle East.

      What’s been driving me crazy for months is that flooding Ukraine with enough war equipment to let them decisively crush Russia militarily is by far the least risky move here.  Once Ukraine’s crushed, he’s got nowhere to go but to start bullying actual NATO countries, at which point the risk of war between nuclear powers suddenly gets kicked up a notch.  This remains true even if Trump wins and pulls out of NATO, as Britain and France also have nuclear arsenals.  Heck, it’s probably true even if NATO disintegrates altogether and America, Britain, and France all cease to be factors, since it’s hard to imagine that countries closer to Russia might not decide to take this as a sign that they should go nuclear themselves.

      Helping Ukraine crush Russia isn’t without risk, but every other option gets even riskier.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      KatKapCC

      I know speculation is pointless, but I do hope that a Harris admin will, regarding Ukraine, be a lot more like the governments of Lithuania, Denmark, Estonia, etc, than the Biden admin. I hope the people she has her eye on for security positions have spines of steel rather than jelly. Unfortunately, even if she does, it won’t make up for years of dithering and it won’t bring back all the lost Ukrainian lives that we could have prevented if we cared to do so.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      YY_Sima Qian

      Thank you Adam! I understand that you don’t have the bandwidth, but I would greatly appreciate it if you could briefly comment, whenever you can, on what you see developing in Southern Lebanon.

      It seems that Iran is unwilling &/or unable to directly respond to Israeli escalations at this moment, & it appears that Hezbollah is probably not in any shape to pose significant threat to northern Israel for a while. The IDF’s & Israeli intelligence’s operational capabilities have shown to be very impressive, as is Israel’s continued complete disregard for IHL & LOAC.

      However, despite taking out all of Hezbollahs top leadership, I am not sure what Israel’s strategic endgame is. Eliminating the threat in the north requires the IDF to invade & occupy southern Lebanon, until an alternative governance system (could be the Lebanese government, but Israel is probably uninterested in a strong & effective government in Beirut) can be build to replace the Hezbollah. An effective ground invasion (necessarily large in scale) might stress the IDF beyond the breaking point, & could trap the it into another quagmire, even if Hezbollah might be discombobulated for a while. Israel seems to have no interest in “owning” & “restoring” what it breaks. OTOH, w/o a ground invasion & occupation Hezbollah can continue to harass northern Israel & proven the return of the residents, while slowing rebuilding itself w/ Iranian assistance. The IDF strikes has also cleaned out the sclerotic leadership of the organization (who might have gotten too comfortable), possibly giving ambitious & even more radicalized “Young Turks” the opportunity to fill the vacuum. Some Lebanese (& Syrians) are understandably celebrating Hezbollah getting pummeled by the IDF, but Israel has also created new enemies w/ its disregard for civilian populations in its strikes & causing a million refugees to flee their homes. This is the 2nd massive humanitarian crisis Israel is directly responsible for in less than a year.

      What incentive would Iran still have to refrain from going for nuclear breakout? Especially since the Israeli “escalation to deescalate” seems inexorably headed toward attacking Iranian nuclear development infrastructure, & getting the US to help manage the blow back?

      Adam Tooze’s latest Chartbook post on MENA economy has some striking data: the year of war has resulted in economic stagnation in Israel, which is set to worsen if the IDF invades southern Lebanon. The Gazan economy has all but vanished, which is unsurprising. The WB economy has shrunk by a quarter due to Israeli policies, & the Palestinians of the WB were not responsible for Hamas/PIJ’s pogrom on 10/7/23. What incentive would the Palestinians in the WB have to refrain from launching another Intifada?

      Barak Ravid claims that the Israeli leadership (more than just Bibi) decided to assassinate Nasrellah because the latter would not decouple ceasing harassing fires from southern Lebanon from cessation of Israeli military offensive in Gaza. That is a shock calculation if true. What is Israel trying to achieve in Gaza again?

      I fear for the day when Israel faces the kind of blow back that it could no longer suppress through the force of its arms, & its Western supporters are no longer willing or able to provide cover.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Adam L Silverman: If the objective of US geopolitical strategy in the “Indo-Pacific” is to prevent PRC primacy, it is quite achievable & it should be easy for the US to build a large & very willing coalition in the region for this purpose (a hedging coalition to manage the downside risk from the PRC’s rise). However, the objective of US geopolitical strategy in the “Indo-Pacific” (& everywhere else) is to preserve US primacy, that is not something most countries in the region are willing to sacrifice their economic wellbeing & their development objectives, or risk enduring enmity from their perpetual big neighbor, for. Not unless the PRC acts in a far more aggressive & kinetic manner than it is currently doing.

      That is why almost all of the networks of partnerships that the Biden Administration love to tout are largely reshuffling the same grouping of Japan, Australia & the Philippines, much more reluctantly South Korea, & much more unreliably India, w/ the recent addition of New Zealand (which recently voted in a right wing government that is upending decades of cross-partisan position of foreign policy independence, w/o having run on that platform during the election & w/o any public debate). Even then, not a single one of those countries want to decouple from the PRC technologically, let alone economically. The US has had to expend significant diplomatic capital to coerce Japan to partially align w/ the former’s tech war against the PRC.

      Regional skepticism of the US is reinforced by the turn toward a bipartisan consensus for economic nationalism & protectionism in DC. The US is asking the region to reduce economic dependence on the PRC (the center of economic gravity & the nexus of regional supply chain ecosystem) & forego PRC investment, w/o showing any inclination to help the region to achieve their developmental objectives (which is the key source of legitimacy for regional governments, democratic or authoritarian).

      Reply
    10. 10.

      wjca

      @Parfigliano: As first act I hope Pres Harris authorizes use of US weapons in Russia wherever Ukraine feels militarily necessary.

      Amen.

      And I hope she authorizes first, then gives the Ukrainians time to act before making any kind of announcement.  Keep the Russians assuming they are still safe, until the missles hit.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Adam L Silverman: I have been perusing these threads everyday. However, life & work have been busy, & developments on Ukrainian battlefield depressingly static (or slightly favorable to Russia) since the surprise Ukrainian offensive into Kursk. Ukrainian long range drone strikes into Russia have been very impressive, but still more of painful pinpricks than imposing meaningful constraints on Russian capacity to wage war (at least it seems to me). Otherwise, I didn’t have anything meaningful to contribute to the conversations.

      Reply
    14. 14.

      Adam L Silverman

      @YY_Sima Qian: Very briefly:

      • Hezbullah terrorized the Lebanese every day in ways that eclipsed what they did to the Israelis. They also terrorized the Syrians and facilitated the terrorizing of Iraqis and Yemenis.
      • The real Lebanese problem is because of Nasrallah’s and Hezbullah’s decades long domination of state and society, there’s not much political, social, and economic resiliency left. Nasrallah assassinated Saad Hariri’s father & has rubbed Saad’s face in that fact every day for years. Today Saad Hariri issued a glowing statement of eulogy. There’s no real Lebanese Sunni leadership to try to fill the void. Nasrallah ensured the only Lebanese Shi’a leadership was Hezbullah. That leaves the Druze, but you can’t expect them to do this type of lift.
      • Khameini is 85, he’s been in power since 1989. His sole concern is his regime’s survival. He authorized only symbolic responses to the killing of Soleimani, he’s not going to authorize more now. He, the other senior clerics, the Quds Force & IRGC leadership don’t care about what happens to the actual Lebanese Shi’a, let alone the Lebanese in general, just as they don’t care about the Palestinians. Their motto is not a just peace for the Palestinians or peace for all Lebanese, it’s Death to America and Death to Israel.
      • With the primary proxy dismantled, who knows what will happen.
      • Bibi, Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and now Saar will attempt to double and triple down. They now think they’re strategic geniuses. Gallant, the IDF, and the Intel/Security Service leadership only wanted to reestablish deterrence & clear the way to return the displaced Israelis to their homes in the north. The fight will be between these two groups as to what happens next. Bibi will definitely continue to achieve his 20 plus year objective of getting the US to fight Iran on his behalf.
      • The Biden folks will continue to mishandle this. They’re delusional and in denial.

      That’s it. That’s all I’ve got and that’s all you’re going to get.

      Reply
    15. 15.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the quick reply!

      What I can’t fathom is why the current Israeli government insists on continuing to prosecute its war in Gaza, when large sections of the Israeli public wants the war to end immediately in return for the remaining hostages. Everyone of Israel’s supporters in the West want the war in Gaza to end. The continued fighting in Gaza is wearing on Israel’s economy & military preparedness. & while Iran, Hezbollah & the Houthis are clearly cynical in justifying their strikes against Israel in as support for the plight of the Gazans, stopping the fighting in Gaza will probably place a lot more international pressure (from the likes of the PRC, India, etc) on them to cease their attacks on Israel. It does not seem they have been all that invested in sustaining, let alone escalating, their attacks on Israel.

      It seems to me Israeli interests are best served by ending the war in Gaza, return the remaining hostages, & return the residents of northern communities back to their homes, as opposed to escalating in all directions w/o an endgame in mind

      Deterrence is a means to an end, a delaying tactic to allow space/time to realize a more favorable & sustainable status quo. Deterrence as the strategy is a cul-de-sac.

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Carlo Graziani

      @YY_Sima Qian: Hey there. Long time,

      However, despite taking out all of Hezbollahs top leadership, I am not sure what Israel’s strategic endgame is.

      With Netanyahu—and there is not a doubt in my mind that he is driving every IDF decision right now—there is never a question of where the motivation springs from, or what the strategic goals are: they are purely framed by domestic politics.

      Netanyahu is reversing his failing political fortunes through this conflict. The events of 7 October 2023 amounted to a heaven-sent opportunity for him, and he has exploited it ruthlessly,relentlessly, and, yes, skilfully. His lack of moral brakes is very helpful to him in this regard, of course.

      There is zero chance of his being levered out of power—as seemed possible until the Hamas onslaught—while most Israelis believe themselves under siege, a belief that he has done his level best to encourage. This siege mentality now fuels his power and political control.

      There will certainly be a price that Israel will have to pay down the line, in my opinion, and the longer payment is delayed, the more painful it will be. But Netanyahu neither knows nor cares. He’s getting what he needs, and if the rest of the region burns, well that’s better than losing power to him. He figured out how to hold the entire region hostage to his own political survival. He is literally a monster.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      Aggieric

      I don’t know what to think anymore. I was really outraged at the way the MSM’s persistent double standards finally drove Biden from the race; now I’m at the point where I’m almost glad. Unambiguously one of the most effective and skillful presidents, not just in our lifetimes, but ever. Most 2-termers never accomplished as much. And yet, his escalating risk-aversion over Ukraine has finally turned me off him. I only hope President Harris will be more bold and that such boldness will not come too late.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani: Bibi is not in the chain of command. Gallant, the defense minister, is the commander in chief equivalent. Neither he, nor the IDF nor the intel/security services leadership trust Bibi.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      Andrya

      @Adam L Silverman:   My understanding is that Netanyahu is under indictment for corruption, that the trial is on hold only as long as he is Prime Minister, and that he is much more likely to keep that role while the war is going on.  My perception is that if Netanyahu has to choose between his personal interest and the best interest of the State of Israel, he will choose #1 every time.  If you care to comment on this, I’d be interested.

      As always, thanks for doing this.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Carlo Graziani

      @Adam L Silverman: This is a legalistic quibble. The IDF anwer to the Defense Minister, who answers to the Prime Minister. Bibi has set the terms of the overall conflict since it began, and has acted very clearly at every juncture to shore up his domestic political position. Gallant is a member of Likud first, and a General second. His loyalty is to Netanyahu, who basically embodies Likud. There is no daylight between them, nor any difference in domestic political interest. This is a war to keep Likud in power, and Netanyahu at its head.

      Reply
    26. 26.

      David Fud

      The one place that President Biden and his natsec team are actively trying to shape, which is the Asian-Pacific OE, they are doing so based on a significant misunderstanding of the PRC as a peer competitor that is also, sometimes, a hostile actor, as well as its political, military, human geography, and civil environment.

      So as not to make you write a multi-part novel, if you could direct some of us that are forming a better idea on how to consider the PRC to something to read or listen to on the topic, I would be most appreciative. Thank you, and thanks for your continued vigil.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Carlo Graziani: I actually went back to the States for a month in July to August, but work was busy, & I had to help my parents pack our apartment for their permanent move back to China, so I didn’t go anywhere else. Perhaps next time.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      wjca

      @YY_Sima Qian: What I can’t fathom is why the current Israeli government insists on continuing to prosecute its war in Gaza, when large sections of the Israeli public wants the war to end immediately in return for the remaining hostages.

      As Adam notes, Netanyahu isn’t in charge.  But keeping the war going is all that’s keeping him out of jail, which means he has no incentive to stop it.  And he could stop it by calling an election.  He would be voted out (and likely land in prison); more to the point, the RWNJs upon whom his government depends, and who are currently in control of the military and the war, would be out of the next government.

      As for what the Israeli public wants, the fundamentalists, the settlers, etc. in the government simply don’t care.  They have their ideological goals, and won’t pass by this rare chance to use the government which depends on them to drive towards them.  That’s also why, IMHO, it doesn’t matter whether Biden cuts off all military supply.  The Israeli public would go into panic mode, but the far right folks still wouldn’t care.  And their supply of munitions is sufficient to keep going for quite a while.

      Reply
    29. 29.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Carlo Graziani: That is not how it works at all and completely misunderstands the formal and informal structures, as well as the relationship between Gallant, who is a retired general, and Bibi. Both the former defense to prime minister relationship, their relationship within Likud, and their personal relationship. Gallant is far more extreme than Bibi in his political views. Far closer to the extreme right portion of Likud. But Bibi cannot order him to do anything. Which is why Bibi keeps devising elaborate schemes to fire him. And then dropping them.

      Reply
    30. 30.

      Geminid

      @Andrya: Benjamin Netanyahu’s corruption trial is not on hold but is still proceeding in fits and halts, as it has since May of 2021. The prosecution finally finished presenting its ~300 witnesses last month. The defense will begin presenting its witnesses next month, once the three judge panel has worked through the various defense motions.

      There should be a verdict on the three corruption counts by next summer. and then the appeals would begin.

      Under current law a conviction would bar Netanuahu from the Premiership, so his allies pushed legislation through the Knesset that would allow a convicted PM to serve pending resolution of their appeals. Then Israel’s Supreme Court threw that law out.

      But Netanyahu has not given up on his hopes to fix his case through “judicial reform.” That was the purpose for which he formed his rotten coalition to begin with, and that is where the war intersects with Netanyahu’s criminal case. By prolonging the war Netanyahu prolongs his rotten government’s tenure, and so long as it is in power he hopes his allies can derail the prosecution legislatively or through court-packing.

      That said, I don’t consider each and every action in this war as motivated by the PM’s legal predicament or a desire on his part to influence US politics. For one thing, he is not the only actor. For another,  wars have dynamics of their own, and these control the actors even as the actors try to control them.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Geminid: If what you accurately described is happening in a country other than Israel, especially a competitor or rival to the U.S., & w/ the disastrous consequences of Israeli conduct in Gaza, the WB & southern Lebanon, the country would have been rightly vilified & ostracized as a dangerous rogue state. Instead, the US & much of the West have bent over backward to avoid acknowledging reality to Israel a pass. This is breaking any semblance of any international order as surely as Russia’s naked aggression of Ukraine going undefeated.

      Reply
    32. 32.

      Geminid

      @Carlo Graziani: This is not just a legal quibble. An Israeli Prime Minister does not control state institutions like the IDF and Shin Bet in the way a US President contols our military.

      An example here would be Israel’s Attorney General. Netanyahu would like nothing better than to fire the Attorney General and replace her with some compliant hack, but he can’t because her 6 year tenure is protected by Israel’s Basic Law.

      There can be political constraints as well, as seen in the case of Defense Minister Gallant. In March of 2023, at the height of the controversy over the PM’s “judicial reform” legislation, Netanyahu fired Gallant. Or he said he did.. The political blowback was so intense Netanyahu backed down.

      More recently Netanyahu tried to rid himself of Gallant by means of a plan to bring Gideon Saar into the government to replace Gallant. Saar is a former Likud rival of the PM and leads a small opposition party. Again, popular reaction to the proposed switch was so negative Saar disclaimed it and Netanyahu gave up for the time being.

      Most Israelis understand that Gallant has kept their self-interested PM and his accelerationist partners from direct control of the IDF and Shin Bet, and they strongly approve of that.

      As for Israel’s most important ally, the US government considers Gallant all but indispensible. It shows that publically through Defense Secretary Austin’s comments about his consultations with his Israeli. The Defense Ministers of France, Germany and the UK probably do the same. They’ve seen Netanyahu’s government in action for 22 months now, and they know Gallant may be the only minister who’s not a crook, fanatic or hack.

      I expect the opposition to Gallant’s removal extended to Netanyahu’s own party and coalition partners as well. The PM would still override opposition within and without his coalition if he was in a strong position politically, but he’s not.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Geminid

      @YY_Sima Qian: I wonder if you have read any of Oz Katerji’s commentary about Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah. His views on what has happened in his native country are not so harsh as yours.

      In 2006 the UN Security Council mandated that Hezbollah withdraw its armed forces to north of the Litani River. The international community lacked the will to enforce Resolution 7601, and the Lebanese state could not enforce it because Hezbollzh outguns the Lebanon’s Army thanks to Iran’s military assistance.

      Hezbollah chose to enter this war on behalf Hamas, after Iran instigated it and Hamas inititiated it. They fired 8,000 missiles into Israel and weould have fired 8,000 more. The Israelis told them and anyone who would listen that they would not continue to limit their response if Hezbollah kept at it.

      Iran could have restrained Hezbollsh if they’d wanted to, but Iran’s long-term strategy is to drive the Israelis out of someplace 700 miles from Teheran, and they are willing to keep the entire region in turmoil towards that end, for decades if neccesary.

      You would would require Israel to operate within a rules-based international order when Hezbollah and its sponsor Iran does not. That is the double standard here.

      Reply
    35. 35.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Geminid: Israel is perfectly justified to attack Hezbollah & target its top leadership (whether that makes strategic good sense is another matter), it is not justified in ignoring IHL & LOAC in so doing. As IDF is poised to invade southern Lebanon, again, will Israel take on the legally required responsibilities as the occupying power, or will it shirk such responsibilities as it has in Gaza?

      Reply
    36. 36.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @Geminid:

      Hezbollah chose to enter this war on behalf Hamas, after Iran instigated it and Hamas inititiated it. They fired 8,000 missiles into Israel and weould have fired 8,000 more. The Israelis told them and anyone who would listen that they would not continue to limit their response if Hezbollah kept at it.

      Israeli security establishment had been eager to invade southern Lebanon even when the fighting still raged in Gaza, to the point of prematurely pulling battalions from Gaza and ceding conquered territory back to de facto Hamas control.

      Had Israel reached a ceasefire in Gaza in return of the remaining hostages, & Hezbollah/Houthis continued to launch harassing fire into Israel, then Israeli strikes against that latter two would be on much stronger grounds, & even then Israel has to follow the IHL & LOAC.

      As I see it, Israel is trapped in the strategic cul-de-sac of militarism & hegemony.

      & are you seriously suggesting that countries should not be bound by rules of warfare if their adversaries do not adhere to them? That is GWB era, height of GWOT, thinking.

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Geminid

      @YY_Sima Qian: No. I was pushing back at the notion that Israel benefits from a double standard when the opposite is so often true.

      As for Israel’s responsibility as an occupying power, it hasn’t occupied any part of Lebanon yet, although that could be changing right now. But if they occupy Lebanese land I expect them to withdraw when Security Council Resolution 1701 is finally enforced. That is the solution to this crisis.

      Reply

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