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You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Monday Evening Open Thread: Colin Allred for Texas

Monday Evening Open Thread: Colin Allred for Texas

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The Democrats’ current funding advantage gives us the opportunity to boost ‘marginal’ candidates like Colin Allred. Even if he doesn’t win — and Ted Cruz is a pissant who performs worse the harder he’s pressed — the GOP will have had to spend money in Texas that they could’ve used in swing states instead.

Keep hope alive!

… A Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America survey of 759 registered Texas voters showed Cruz is ahead of Allred by 47 percent to 46. In a previous August poll, the incumbent led Allred by 2 points (47 percent to 45). The poll was carried out on September 25-26. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

The survey adds Cruz has a negative net favorability rating, and has fallen from a minus 6 in August to minus 8 points (41 percent favorable and 49 said unfavorable).

Allred has a plus 5 net favorable rating (40 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable), down from a plus 7 net rating in August…

If Allred were to beat Cruz in November, he would be the first Democratic senator in the Lone Star State since 1988. An Allred victory in Texas could also be vital in the Democratic Party’s bid to hold on to the upper chamber…

Polling suggests that Cruz could be in another tight reelection race. He narrowly beat then Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke in 2018.

A recent Morning Consult poll of 2,716 likely voters showed that Allred was ahead in the 2024 Texas Senate race (45 percent to 44 percent), though forecasters and experts believe Cruz will still come out on top in the competitive Texas Senate race.

“Cruz’s close call with O’Rourke in 2018 took place in an election year that favored Democratic candidates, and whether 2024 ultimately turns out to favor one party or neither remains to be seen,” Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin, previously told Newsweek…

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  • —ly Ballou
  • Anoniminous
  • Another Scott
  • Baud
  • bbleh
  • Betty
  • bjacques
  • Chief Oshkosh
  • dmsilev
  • eclare
  • Fake Irishman
  • FelonyGovt
  • Formerly disgruntled in Oregon
  • frosty
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    120Comments

    5. 5.

      twbrandt

      Completed my absentee ballot which I’ll drop off tomorrow. Also mailed 30 postcards for Curtis Hertel, the Democrat running in MI-07 for Elissa Slotkin’s old seat.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      FelonyGovt

      I’m writing postcards for Allred through my post carding group. I was somewhat skeptical but my fingers are crossed he has a shot!

      Reply
    10. 10.

      Geminid

      Colin Allred was one of the 40 Democrats who flipped red districts in 2018. That was a very talented group of Democratic politicians. They did not get much attention at the time but they are moving up now. Elissa Slotkin will likely be Michigan’s next Senator, and Andy Kim is on track to win his Senate race in New Jersey. Allred would make it three.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      Ocotillo

      Cruz is running non-stop transitioned girls are competing against our daughters and it’s all because of Colin.  Of course, this is on tv but probably works on the old fogies watching the evening news.

      Reply
    12. 12.

      Juju

      When it was Beto and Cruz, Dobbs wasn’t an issue. Now Texas has women nearly dying in hospital parking lots and people who want to track their menstrual cycles. Maybe those facts will make the difference this time.

      Reply
    17. 17.

      WaterGirl

      Big money is starting to flow to FL and TX.  Some think it’s a head fake.  Personally, I don’t know whether that’s the case or not.

      But big money isn’t flowing to Dan Osborn in Nebraska, which is why we’re raising funds for him.  We were only going to raise $10k, but once I talked to the campaign and they agreed to use it all to burnish the field organizing they are starting to build up, we upped our goal to $25k.

      Of course, Osborn refused to take money from either party, so the Democratic party can’t send money his way.

      Reply
    21. 21.

      bbleh

      FWIW I somehow ended up on Republican text-message lists, and as part of the nearly 2-to-1 ratio of Rep to Dem gimmes, I have received several from the Cruz people specifically, which suggests to me that they’re feeling the heat.

      And btw, what is UP with the Republicans?  Is it simply that Musk is paying someone who is paying someone who is paid by the message, so they’re just spamming wildly in order to absorb as much money as possible?  And if I take out the obvious scams (“10-for-1 match NOW ONLY you must donate NOW!!!”) the imbalance is even worse, like maybe 4-1 instead of 2-1.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      TF79

      @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: I usually don’t love sportsball metaphors in politics, but the “me guys” is a good line of attack on Cruz. A) it hits an existing perception of him being in it for himself and self-serving, and B) it references aspects of sportsball (teamwork and camaraderie) that are broadly admired

      Reply
    24. 24.

      KatKapCC

      @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon: There has never been and will never be a Democratic candidate for any office about whom 100% of Democratic voters agree. Part of the deal when your big tent includes an array of points on the left-hand spectrum as well as identities and backgrounds. People love to criticize politicians, and the secret is that even if a given politician didn’t do Thing A which a given voter dislikes, then that voter would complain about Thing B, and if Thing B didn’t happen, then they’d move on to Thing C, ad infinitum.

      Nobody’s perfect — no politician and no voter. It only becomes a problem when the former can’t admit they’re not, and the latter demands they be so.

      Reply
    28. 28.

      WaterGirl

      This is why the phrase “more and better Democrats” is a thing.

      More first, then we can focus on  better.  Imagine having enough Democrats that we didn’t have to worry about the Machins or Sinema.  If we can keep the senate this year, it could happen.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Jeffro

      surely Ted Cruz can rally all of the republican voters and GOP elected officials who love him to his side!

      🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

      what was it Al Franken said about ol’ Ted, again?

      Reply
    34. 34.

      Hoodie

      @TF79: Sports metaphors generally work better when used by people who actually played sports.   This comparison probably works for Allred because Cruz is such an obvious twerp.

      Reply
    39. 39.

      Jeffro

      @Jeffro: GOP in disarray! (gleeful cheers erupt)

      After receiving the request for his renewed loyalty pledge, at least one 5th District Committee member — Glenn Mozingo of Cumberland County — handed in his resignation on Thursday.

      “I am writing to advise that I will not sign the pledge form that was enclosed with your letter dated September 16, 2024, and I am resigning as a member of the Cumberland County Republican Committee with immediate effect. I understand that my membership on the 5th District Congressional Committee will lapse as well,” Mozingo wrote in an email to RPV Executive Director Ken Nunnenkamp which was obtained by The Mercury.

      Mozingo wrote that he wasn’t aware of any reservations among 5th District Committee members regarding their loyalties to Trump or Hung Cao, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.

      “Consequently, it is apparent that this is a transparent attempt to coerce each committee member to publicly go on record in support of John McGuire, which I will not do.”

      Although he signed the pledge, James Hankins, another 5th District vice chair, also lashed out against RPV leadership.

      “On a personal leave I feel insulted by being asked to sign this,” Hankins wrote in an email to Anderson. “I am signing this form this one time. If I am ever asked to do this again, I will resign from all posts I hold with the Republican Party and I will never raise another dollar for the 5th.”

      Reply
    40. 40.

      Salty Sam

      @Jeffro: what was it Al Franken said about ol’ Ted, again?

      Franken- “I like Ted Cruz more than anyone else in th Senate does, and I fuckin’ HATE Ted Cruz…”

      Reply
    41. 41.

      Another Scott

      Allred’s been getting a monthly donation from me (along with several other important senate candidates) for a while. I think he can do it.

      We need to run up the score!

      Meanwhile, … BlueVirginia.US:

      “HEADLINE GOES HERE” – VA07 GOP Nominee Derrick Anderson “caught with no issues or platform on his website, using placeholders instead of policy for over a week”

      This comes after Anderson was also busted for posing with a fake family

      By lowkell – September 30, 2024 25 20

      From the DCCC; this latest embarrassment for VA07 Republican nominee Derrick Anderson comes after this debacle (““New levels of weird and creepy”: VA07 GOP Nominee Derrick Anderson “trying to mislead voters by renting a family in his pictures”). So yeah, if you live in VA07, make sure you vote for the most-definitely-NOT-fake Eugene Vindman on or before 11/5!

      We need to crush candidates like that, and I think Vindman can do it.

      Forward!!

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    42. 42.

      Geminid

      Whew! I was starting to worry about Magdi Jacobs, aka Mangy Jay, because she dropped off Twitter September 13.

      Jacobs popped up again yesterday and apologized for not sending out the heads-up that she had intended. It turns out she remarried and was honeymooning in Paris!

      Reply
    43. 43.

      lamh47

      I love that the Scorpio in Joe Biden is coming out more as we get closer to election day.

      Biden’s got that I’ve already turned in my resignation and ya can’t fire me glow.

      It also helps that reporter deserve it for bullshit like this:

      @Acyn

      Reporter: In retrospect… do you wish you had spent the weekend here in Washington instead of Delaware Biden: Come on. Stop with the game will you.. It’s 90 miles from here. I was on the phone the whole time
      https://x.com/Acyn/status/1840883316444049752

      @Acyn

      Reporter: Trump has accused you of ignoring— Biden: He’s lying and the governor told him he was lying. I’ve spoken to the governor.. I don’t know why he does this and the reason I get so angry about it, I don’t care about what he says about me, but I care what he communicates to the people that are in need. He implies that we’re not doing everything possible. We are. I assume you heard the Republican Governor of Georgia talk about that. He was on the phone with me more than once. So that’s simply not true. And it’s irresponsible.

      https://x.com/Acyn/status/1840877980777923020

      Reply
    46. 46.

      Maxim

      @Steve LaBonne: Hear, hear.

      More and better Democrats indeed. I’m still skeptical about Allred’s chances, but I’m sure glad someone’s trying to take Cruz out. If I were a PAC supporting Allred, I might remind voters not only about Cancun, but about how Cruz supported Trump even after TCFG insulted his wife. I wouldn’t think that would go over well in Texas (or most places, but it seems pretty anti-machismo).

      Reply
    53. 53.

      Anoniminous

      Harris campaign should send Coach Walz to Texas at an oportune time to campaign for Allred.  He led a team to a football state championship.  Texans are gah-gah/goo-goo over that kinda thing.

      Reply
    61. 61.

      Steve LaBonne

      @lamh47: They claim to want the chance to ask substantive questions, and then when they get the chance they pull this shit. I hope Madam President will cut them off from all access to her Administration to the maximum extent possible.

      Reply
    62. 62.

      HumboldtBlue

      @Baud: ​ 

      A reminder that up until the 21st century, smoking was EVERYWHERE! I’m watching the Godfather of Harlem and for any period piece you have to have smoking, and people smoking everywhere.

      Reply
    68. 68.

      Kosh III

      @eclare: Marsha Marsha Marsha is doing the same here in TN.

      If only we could get rid of this vile airheaded media whore.

      Gloria Johnson needs help and money. Are you listening DNC? DSCC?  Not holding my breath.

      Reply
    75. 75.

      Percysowner

      I’ve been giving to Allred for a while and started throwing a little bit of money at Debbie Mucarsel-Powell a couple of weeks ago. I chipped into the BJ fund raiser for Osborn. It may be futile, but at least these feel like one of them might hit.

      Reply
    76. 76.

      bbleh

      @lamh47: @Baud: shades of 2016.  They’re thinking she has an edge, and there is NOTHING like a Dem who might win AND happens to be a woman to get them to Assert Their Constitutional Rights and Speak Truth To Power and whatever else makes them think will FINALLY make the Nerds look COOL to the Jocks

      (Related to which, see today’s column by Matt Bai re what a LOVEABLE ROGUE that Donald Trump is.  I couldn’t even get through half of it without retching.)

      Reply
    78. 78.

      HumboldtBlue

      There is a looming labor strike that could severe disturbances to the economy.

      East Coast port strike: ILA union rejects wage hike offer near 50% as shutdown at midnight nears.
      Ports ownership group USMX said it made a wage hike offer of near 50% which it hoped would lead to resumption of collective bargaining, but the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) rejected the offer and stated that its wage demands were still not being met.
      Trucking companies and freight rail operators scrambled to move billions in trade that has been arriving at the 14 ports where the largest longshoremen’s union in North America is planning to strike after midnight Monday if a new contract is not reached with ports management.
      For the week ended last Friday, nearly $14 billion in trade arrived at these ports, including New York/New Jersey, Baltimore, Norfolk, Virginia, Savannah, Georgia, Miami, New Orleans and Houston, with $2.7 billion in trade arriving on Friday alone.
      “Time isn’t on the side of importers,” a logistics CEO told CNBC.

      Reply
    81. 81.

      bbleh

      @Baud: hell, even if they AREN’T hurting.  See endless harping on “INFLATION!!” even when all the, y’know, economic statistics (boooringgg!) tell a different story.

      Reply
    83. 83.

      Starfish

      @Anoniminous: I don’t know. They liked John McCain’s tire swings and always gave him good coverage. I thought that Howard Dean showed some disdain for them, and that was why “the Dean scream” became a thing.

      Reply
    85. 85.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @HumboldtBlue:

      What’s with all of these strikes? I don’t remember hearing about these during the Obama and Trump years.

      Don’t these ILA union members care about the potential impacts this could have on people?

      Reply
    87. 87.

      lamh47

      @Baud: this…Kamala just did one of the big BB sports podcast and any person being reasonably interested should come away from it thinking she did a great job.

      Can’t do much about those folks who want to hate her or Dems, but anyone with a true open mind would say she did great!

      Reply
    93. 93.

      Matt McIrvin

      @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): They were starting to happen during the Trump years. Organized labor seems to have found its voice, and Biden has been far more sympathetic to them than basically any previous President. I’m not going to insist they stand down just because an election year’s on–workers need what they need.

      Reply
    94. 94.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @Matt McIrvin:

      I’m not going to insist they stand down just because an election year’s on–workers need what they need.

      I sympathize with them, but what good will it do them if it causes severe disruptions to the economy which hand the election to Trump? He’s no friend of labor. They’re not looking at the big picture. At least draw negotiations out until after the election (if that were possible) and then strike

      Reply
    97. 97.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @Baud:

      I’d rather not take the chance with this strike. If these Longshoremen fuck us over and the worst happens, I will hold them responsible

      Reply
    98. 98.

      Kathleen

      @Geminid: Plus Lauren Underwood, Sharice David, Lucy MacBath right off the top of my head were some of the other candidates who flipped red seats. That was a talented class indeed and I think it takes a lot more talent and discipline to flip a seat.

      Reply
    102. 102.

      Queen of Lurkers

      @Starfish: I have lived in Texas for a couple of decades now, and have had my hopes dashed many times. It will be delicious is Allred wins, but I am not holding my breath.

      That said, last Saturday, we had canvassers show up at our house. Not Allred people but the candidate who is running for the Texas House in our district. This is the first time that anyone has actually come to our house during any election. So I am hoping this is a sign that the GOTV is in full swing in TX. If Allred is to win, he will have to run up big margins in the suburban towns surrounding the core cities (which are already Team Blue).

      Reply
    105. 105.

      Fake Irishman

      @Formerly disgruntled in Oregon:

      … a lot of people on this blog for a while who were complaining he wasn’t campaigning enough, or energetic enough or not touring the right counties or not being like Beto or Johnny unbeatable.

      and yet, hear we are.

      If he loses, I’m sure we’ll treat him like we treat Tim Ryan who only ran 13 points ahead of the rest of the Dems statewide slate in a not-great year for Dems in a state that is rapidly trending rightward.

      Yeah, sometimes I get a bit salty with you all.

      Reply
    106. 106.

      Fake Irishman

      @Kathleen:

      Don’t forget Deb Harland, who has since ended up as a cabinet secretary who has done such a kickass job at Interior that even Erik Loomis can’t find anything bad to say about her. Katie Porter has her detractors, but she flipped and held a swing district in California and skewered a smarmy banking CEO so badly in a committee hearing that he had to resign in shame.

      Also, don’t forget AOC.

      Reply
    107. 107.

      Fake Irishman

      @Queen of Lurkers:

      Those burbs are shifting quickly into our column.  I am very interested to see how Tarrant, Colin, Denton, Bell, Williamson, and Brazoria counties vote. If we get a bit a distance in Tarrant (Fort Worth) and Williamson (north Austin burbs) and break even in the other four (Austin exurbs Dallas burbs and Houston southern burbs, Allred has a real chance.

      Reply
    110. 110.

      Fake Irishman

      @Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):

      I suppose workers should only strike when it’s convenient for you?

      I don’t think we know how this plays politically. Biden could order a 60-day cooling down period, but he hasn’t yet. There may be good reasons for that on a number of levels.

      Longshoremen are really fearing automation and other ways that they might lose their livelihood; I suspect that’s what they want solid language around, not a mere  big number for a raise.

      Remember these sorts of issues are what autoworkers, screenwriters, actors, rail workers and teamsters at UPS struck over.

      And they all won.

      imagine if they win the strike in the next week. How does that play?

      yeah, I’m nervous too, but let’s not pretend we know the result here.

      Reply
    112. 112.

      Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)

      @Fake Irishman:

      I suppose workers should only strike when it’s convenient for you?

      No, just not when it could endanger democracy and cause the US to become a dictatorship under Donald Trump. That would be a pretty big own goal for worker’s rights, wouldn’t you say?

      Reply
    116. 116.

      Chief Oshkosh

      @WaterGirl: Sure would be nice if the Oracle of Omaha started a PAC to help the Independent candidate. He doesn’t need my advice on making money, but sure seems like a stable democracy is a good place to live and invest.

      Reply
    120. 120.

      Geminid

      @Kathleen: Fun fact: both Sharice Davids and Colin Allred were White House Fellows in the Obama administration.

      The Class of 2018 also includer several military veterans who flipped seats, including Chrissy Houlihan, Mikie Sherrill, Elaine Luria, Jason Crow, Joe Cunningham and blog favorite Jared Golden.

      Elissa Slotkin and Abigail Spanberger are CIA alumni. Slotkin is on her way to the Senate, while Spanberger is the early favorite for Virginia Governor next year. Virginia’s one-term limit will free Spanberger up to run for Tim Kaine’s Senate seat in 2030.

      Kendra Horne and Xochitl Torres Small lost the districts they had flipped in 2020, but not for lack of talent or hard work; these were tough districts for Democrats. Torres Small serves as Deputy Agriculture Secretary now, and at age 39 has a bright future ahead.

      Like Lauren Underwood, Sean Casten flipped a Chicagoland seat. This was a pattern among the Class of 2018 cohort; they flipped suburban-based seats in at least 8 states. This was part of a larger political realignment that seems to be durable.

      On a sad note: Virginia Representative Jennifer Wexton, who in 2018 knocked Barbara Comstock out of a seat Republicans held for decades, must retire for reasons of health. Wexton endorsed a very capable successor, state Senator Suhas Subramanyam. He’s another Obama White House alumnus.

      Reply

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