Anybody going to Harris or Walz rallies?
RevRick sent me this photo from a rally a week or two ago. Can anybody name the person on the left?
If you’ve been to a rally recently, send me your best pic!
I’ll post the first 7.
Open thread.
Update: Name your favorite thing about Harris and about Walz. Only one favorite thing for each. Okay, two. One personal thing and one bottom line position that matters most to you.
Baud
Is that RevRick? Looking good!
Old School
Are you saying that we should know the person on the left?
She doesn’t look familiar to me.
Baud
I don’t know how the person in the middle is either.
catclub
@Baud: You in particular are not expected to recognize them if they have pants on.
Betty
It could be Susan Wild, the Congressperson for his district.
WaterGirl
@Baud: I am guessing that the person in the middle is Mrs. RevRick. The person on the left is an elected official.
In any case, I thought maybe we could use some Kamala and Walz love rather than contributing to any debate hand-wringing that’s happening on the internet
Baud
@catclub: It’s why most bank robbers wear pants.
WaterGirl
@Betty: Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner!
Correction: I had RevRick’s wife and Susan Wild switched!
Leto
What is, not RevRick. I’ll take Trollish Answers for $800, Alex.
WaterGirl
The funny thing to me is that I swear I have met RevRick or his doppleganger. Ditto for Susan Wild.
ArchTeryx
@WaterGirl: I think a lot of hand-wringing today isn’t due to the debate at all, but due to Robert Reich, a pretty respected figure, coming out with this:
https://www.rawstory.com/polls-trump-harris-2669294354/
His posit is that the polls are not wrong, that Trump and Harris really are neck and neck, and a lot of the reason is because Harris is an unknown and Trump is a known – and the ignoramuses known as “low-info” voters always go with the devil they know over the devil they don’t.
Plus, her virtual media silence in September, which gave Trump and Vance a golden opportunity to define her as a devil, period. Now add in the “silent bigotry” that ended up sinking Hillary Clinton…
He doesn’t conclude Trump and Vance will win, but he thinks they have more than an even chance:
Baud
@ArchTeryx: Plausible but unproveable. It’s almost certainly going to be a close election. I wish people would spend less time trying to read tea leaves.
Ohio Mom
@ArchTeryx: Yeah, about once a day I have a spasm that Trump could win. I compartmentalize and move on because, well, I have things I need to accomplish and being frozen in fear is not helpful.
I’ve already come to terms with the fact that Ohio family isn’t going anywhere, we’re too old and too disabled to sneak into another country.
Meanwhile, the laundry calls.
ArchTeryx
@Baud: It’s a sound hypothesis, but the only hard proof is going to come with the final poll – the election. And how razor-thin it seems to be is making a lot of people nervous, even people as high ranking as Robert Reich.
The idea of a Trump win under these circumstances absolutely terrifies me. I’ve been doing what I can to help Harris and Walz, but I’m just one guy in an indigo-blue state (New York). What happens here may determine who controls the House, but not much else (and there’s been plenty of pixels spilled at how moribund the New York State Democratic Party really is).
ArchTeryx
@Ohio Mom: It comes with extra terror for me for two basic reasons:
I’m disabled. My fiancee is disabled. You KNOW what fascists do to the disabled.
Specific circumstances. I live very, very close to rural upstate NY, which is loaded down with Trump fanatics. The county sheriff has to chase these assholes out of town periodically, and there’s a gun store happily selling them all the armaments they want right up the street, with a gun range next door.
Having a brownshirt squad, backed by our town police, show up at our door shortly after Trump takes over is a very likely possibility. We’re arming up here.
Baud
@ArchTeryx:
Not really. If we win big, does that mean that voters got to “know” Kamala or that the polls right now were wrong in the first place. No way to tell. If the outcome is consistent with the margin of error of the polling, does that explain why the voters voted the way they did. Not really.
Controlling whatever we can control is important.
WaterGirl
@ArchTeryx: I think the people who will decide this election are barely paying attention yet, and I certainly don’t think they noticed Kamala being “silent” on the national stage.
Eolirin
@WaterGirl: This is not a sustainable dynamic. I don’t know how we fix it, but we need to fix it
Maybe demographic trends and the Republicans throwing away the youth vote will do it for us in the long term, by giving us the structural advantage in a way that makes facist appeals harder to make, but that’s not something I’d like to have to count on.
Frankensteinbeck
Nobody goes to Harris and Walz rallies. They’re too crowded.
WaterGirl
@Eolirin: Even if we win in November, the war won’t be over. Right now, we have to fight for what’s in front of us. Spending time worrying isn’t going to get us the win.
I just don’t feel like I have the emotional energy to fret about that stuff and still fight as hard as I can for a win in Nov. For me, November is all about no regrets.
Baud
@Eolirin:
I wouldn’t count any demographic being reliable voters. There’s not much difference between losing 10% of the youth vote and 10% of the olds vote. We just have to find a way to get what we can.
Anoniminous
Reich is old school media. Also he’s been put to pasture by the Harris team and that’s got to hurt for a fake Nobel Prize winning Legend In His Own Mind.
ArchTeryx
@Anoniminous: That would explain a few things. He makes a lot of good points, but @Baud is also right: It’s all tea-leaf reading at this stage. With the stakes so high for me and mine, it’s hard NOT to give in to doom-scrolling in those times I can’t actually be doing something constructive.
NotMax
Trick question.
All three people are on the left.
;)
Josie
@WaterGirl: I agree. We can take a lesson from the history of Black Americans. We concentrate on what is in front of us, knowing that we will continue to fight no matter what tomorrow, or next month, or next year brings. We never give up.
zhena gogolia
@ArchTeryx: Robert Reich is a well known concern troll.
Falling Diphthong
Harris, position: Trump is a blithering buffoon with dementia, threatening violence, who is easy to manipulate into doing dumb things he didn’t initially mean to do.*
Harris, personal: I shall ignore the media’s demand for interviews to fit their prewritten conclusions, and then laugh at their tears.
Walz, position: I’ve been elected with a zero vote majority in the legislature. Time to pass this list of progressive legislation.
Walz, personal: Tonic masculinity.
*I lean left on issues. But I most resonate in this election with people like Tom Nichols, Jeff Flake, and so help me Dick Cheney: “Hmm, one side is calling for an American Kristallnacht. I shall be voting for their opponent.”
bbleh
I’m wringing my hands about all the hand-wringing. I wish I could get on with just ordinary hand-wringing, but I’m so worried about it that I can’t wring my hands properly.
Meanwhile, as to POSITIVE things, what I like about Harris is her depth: she’s able both to have silly fun (she laughs! she even dances!) and to be pretty damn serious (when she puts her prosecutor hat on). The Orange Guy by contrast seems pretty one-note (not to mention tired). And what I like about Walz is his relentless ordinary-ness. It was very much on display during the debate: slick car salesman v. ordinary guy trying to keep up with the patter. (I think worriers may be underestimating the value of how easy it was for “ordinary folks” watchers, especially middle-aged or older ones, to identify with him.)
WaterGirl
@Falling Diphthong: @bbleh: Thanks for reading the post!
And for your entries. :-)
JML
@Anoniminous: Reich has been right about a lot of things, and sadly wasn’t listened to…but at the same time he’s another one of these Clinton-era politicians that refuses to get off the stage. Pass the torch, mah dude, and learn to enjoy retirement instead of desperately grabbing for one last burst of attention and very possibly damaging your own cause in favor of your ego.
Omnes Omnibus
This election could go one of three ways, a razor thin margin for Trump, a razor thin margin for Harris, or a big win by Harris. I don’t really think there are new Trump voters to be found, so his win if there is one will be narrow. If pollsters’ model of who will be voting is correct, a Harris win will be narrow. There ism however, the third possibility, that Harris may tap into a group of new voters who will significant expand her margin.
None of it happens without us doing the work.
Anoniminous
@bbleh:
Maybe you need a different brand of hand lotion? Or a new brand of hand washing liquid? Or a different wringer?
Personally, after hand wringing I lay them out to dry in the New Mexico sun so they get that olde tyme sage brush smell.
frosty
Dammit! Walz is coming to my county and by the time I knew about it it was at capacity.
RaflW
Robert Reich is a decent economist and I hold no ill feelings towards him. But he’s not a campaign professional, and the polls are garbage.
We are in some ways just back to how things were decades ago, mostly in the dark about what will really happen, but now with many tingles of fear or hope when this or that poll, based on ‘likely electorate’ modeling that is much more art (or artifice) than science.
Don’t get hung up on ’em. Do what you can (and this is for me, too) to make the polls irrelevant: Write letters/postcards. Door knock. Phone call. Talk to reluctant-voter friends if you have ’em. Give money. Bake cookies for a local field office. Whatever! GO.
Anoniminous
@JML:
He has also been wrong about some things, like NAFTA.
Melancholy Jaques
First, no they don’t. Clinton over the well known Bush Sr, Obama over McCain, and Trump over Clinton were all the devil they didn’t know over the one they did.
Second, this election is not going to be determined by low-info, “undecided” voters. It’s going to be decided by turning out the faithful. And that requires our voters to be excited by our candidates. It also helps if our weaker voters believe our candidates look like winners. In other words, the next month should be spent preaching to the choir, making sure they can vote, then making sure they do.
Anoniminous
Two biggest things everybody can do and doesn’t require much effort:
1. Talk to your friends and their kids
2. Get them to vote, drive them to the polling place if necessary
If we maximize our vote we’ll win. If we don’t, we won’t.
(Sometimes this stuff gets real simple.)
schrodingers_cat
@Anoniminous: His political instincts aren’t that great either. He tried to run for Governor of Massachusetts and that didn’t go very far.
FastEdD
Much hand-wringing here too. I’m fortunate to be retired but still able to climb stairs and knock on doors. If I wake up to a Nazi hellscape someday, at least I tried. In more pleasant thoughts it was cool to see Tim Walz shooting apples. When I was a teacher we specialized in shooting potatoes. Either hair spray powered or air pressure powered. Hair spray or carburetor cleaner is the most fun (flames shooting out at night!) Air pressure is more accurate because you can dial it in with a gauge. My adult friends used to have potato cannon contests out in the desert. With much cross dressing and a keg or two of beer for the winner.
WaterGirl
@JML: In all fairness to the people you want to get off the stage, they know, just like we do, what’s a stake. So of course they are not going to get off the stage before November.
But we also don’t have to listen to the conventional wisdom in these oh-so-not conventional times.
WaterGirl
@frosty: Volunteer?
Omnes Omnibus
@JML: Reich is frequently correct on economics. He is less so on political strategy.
zhena gogolia
@frosty: These packed rallies are what gives me hope. I don’t think the polls are capturing this.
eclare
Personal thing for both: I think they both would be fun to spend time with. Kamala and I can cook together, and Tim can inspect my gutters to see if they need any repairs. Then we can go for barbecue, I bet he’d like that.
Policy for Kamala: we cannot elect a convicted felon for president.
Policy for Tim: free school lunch and breakfast. I know this is a state issue and not federal, but I love that he got that through the legislature.
Eolirin
@Omnes Omnibus: There’s been a lot of really weird shit going on with the polls too, especially when you look at the cross tabs; implausibly large swings between polls from the same outfits, and suggestive of very unlikely numbers given the leans of various demographics. I think something is particularly broken there this cycle.
But I think the narrow win is still the most likely outcome, as much as we need the big win, not just so we hold the Senate and the House as well, but so it feels like we’re finally turning the corner on this shit.
Scott F.
On policy, I like that Harris is smart and that she is stating her values. Policy ambitions never survive the legislative process in their pure state. Smart people will keep their eye on the value proposition while negotiating the specifics. I like that Walz has pursued more progressive policy with a thin majority as governor. Harris will be able to send him to Congress to work with legislators.
On a personal level, Walz is as authentic a person as I have ever seen in the public eye. And as a dad, the Big Dad Energy works for me like a charm. My sons and their friends like the dad quality as well and I expected them to be more jaded about it.
For Kamala Harris, the joy vibe is real and I am so there for that. Yet, when it is time to be confront real problems, she can shift to dead serious and that seems just as real. That’s a gift.
Bupalos
@Omnes Omnibus: A surprisingly large Trump win is also a possibility. His “new voters” come from folks falling out of the dem coalition (most notably Hispanics) because a kind of subliminal fear of the future is making Trump’s message of going back to a fictional past increasingly effective.
We just don’t know. But these time periods where people’s lives feel destabilized have a way of just continually moving Overton windows past the expected range of options.
H.E.Wolf
This is a good reminder, to all of us, of at least two things:
1. In those times when we *can* do something constructive – no matter how small – do so.
2. Remember the words of Audre Lorde (may she rest in power):
“Caring for myself is not self-indulgence, it is self-preservation, and that is an act of political warfare.”
Omnes Omnibus
@Bupalos: I doubt the Trump large win scenario.
WaterGirl
@Scott F.: Unlike a lot of politicians, Kamala’s voice matches what she’s talking about.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: I share your doubt.
JoeyJoeJoe
@Melancholy Jaques: also see 1980, which seemed close according to polls, then blew wide open at the end of the campaign
Matt McIrvin
@Eolirin: Polls are the kind of thing where there’s so much data from so many disparate sources that you’re going to find weird shit. It doesn’t necessarily mean anything.
I don’t follow poll aggregation like I used to–I’ve lost faith in it–but a nice thing about it is that it would average out a lot of the pure noise and emphasize that it was not worth worrying about. Following 538 may be bad but it’s better than paying obsessive attention to the last poll that dropped.
RevRick
@Betty:
@WaterGirl:
The person in the middle is my Rep. Susan Wild, and on the far left, a friend from our mutual work on the Obama and Clinton campaigns. Her husband took the photo.
If you notice, I’m a step down from the two. Susan had to stand on her tiptoes to reach the microphone for her speech. They brought out a box for Liza Colon-Zayas, the actress for The Bear, to stand on when she spoke since she is even shorter. Anthony Ramos of the 2024 cast of Hamilton also spoke. These two actors were in recognition of the fact that Hispanics make an increasing number in the district (the swingiest district in the swingiest state).
Nancy
I like Kamala’s laugh and her dancing.
I like her Raise the Middle Class policy
I like Tim’s love for his children and his genial smile.
I liked all the wins he listed in the debate for his state. That other guy in the debate had lies, no accomplishments.
WaterGirl
@RevRick: oops!