Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

People are weird.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

This really is a full service blog.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

Come on, man.

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

This must be what justice looks like, not vengeful, just peaceful exuberance.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

They don’t have outfits that big. nor codpieces that small.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Election 2024 Open Thread: The Closer

Election 2024 Open Thread: The Closer

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Per the Washington Post, “Obama to campaign for Harris in month leading up to election”:

… Obama senior adviser Eric Schultz said in a news release that the former president is doing “everything he can to help elect Vice President Harris” and Democrats across the country.

“Now that voting has begun, our focus is on persuading and mobilizing voters, especially in states with key races,” Schultz said. “Many of these races are likely to go down to the wire and nothing should be taken for granted.”

Obama, the country’s first Black president, is the nation’s most popular Democrat and still wields considerable influence in his party. After President Joe Biden’s faltering debate performance against Donald Trump, Obama told allies that the president needed to reconsider whether his candidacy was viable. Obama and his wife, Michelle, endorsed Harris shortly after Biden left the presidential race and Harris became the presumptive nominee. Since then, the Obamas have said Harris represents a continuation of the same vision of America that helped Obama make history in 2008.

“If we work like we’ve never worked before, if we hold firm to our convictions — we will elect Kamala Harris as the next President of the United States,” Obama said at the Democratic National Convention in August. “We’ll elect leaders up and down the ballot who will fight for the hopeful, forward-looking America we all believe in.”…

Harris was an early supporter of Obama, traveling to Iowa during the 2008 campaign to knock on doors for him. The two of them have a relationship that stretches back two decades.

Obama’s efforts so far on her behalf — fundraising content and events that feature him — have raised $76 million for the presidential campaign this cycle, in addition to events for various fundraising arms of the Democratic Party. Obama will participate in more of those activities in the coming month, and travel the country to mobilize voters for Harris and other Democrats.

Obama has played an increasingly active role in campaign efforts, including headlining a Los Angeles fundraiser last month that raised $4 million for Harris.

The announcement of Obama’s increased activity comes during a week that Harris’s campaign has touted several Republican endorsements, including by former congresswoman Liz Cheney. Many Democrats see the vice president as the natural inheritor of the multicultural, multiracial coalition that put Obama into office.

Reader Interactions

206Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    I’m sure Trump will be able to counter with some equally popular among Republicans former President.

    Zombie Reagan is available, isn’t he?

  4. 4.

    narya

    Today someone rang my mom’s doorbell; she looked out to see two young canvassers. She opened the door and told them, “You don’t need to worry about me—I’m going to vote for Harris.”  She then told them that she used to do GOTV efforts too, which seemed to delight them. Made everyone’s day.

  6. 6.

    Baud

    It was one thing for Harris to campaign with Liz Cheney. But this is going too far!

     

    @narya:

    “Why are you wasting your valuable time on me?”

  8. 8.

    kindness

    Trump hates and still whines about Obama.  This will just make him whine more, which helps us I think.  Yea I’d like to see Obama campaign in Florida and Texas, just do it behind bulletproof glass please.

  11. 11.

    ArchTeryx

    Yeah, the GOS published the state of the race and it remains a nailbiter. Lots of folks there seem to think WI will go for TCFG and win him the election. It seems to be the pivotal state for a lot of reasons.

  13. 13.

    Ken

    Well it’s about time. To hear the MAGA crowd tell it, Obama’s been secretly puppeting Biden for five years now.

  20. 20.

    Ishiyama

    Something about the shortened campaign – each step follows so quickly on the preceding one that it doesn’t look as if it were planned in advance, and there is a whole lot for the public and for observers to absorb at once. But it’s not random. Look at who was presented most recently on the public stage: Liz Cheney to appeal to constitutional Republicans, particularly white women and Magic Johnson, for black men. This is trying to harvest reluctant voters who by logic should support the campaign, but who have been mislead. That’s one point.

    And the negative messaging from Liz Cheney, et al., that Trump is baaad, should at least result in diminished enthusiasm for voting for Trump for the fence-sitters.

    Finally, the large rallies will continue to stimulate the base turnout, and provide a contrast with the smaller Trump events. The surrogate appearances, which don’t get national attention, will also boost turnout.

    Harris/Walz has the money advantage, the ground effort advantage, and I think their efforts are being well received generally. That’s why I’m out on a limb saying it will be a famous victory.

  21. 21.

    Dorothy A. Winsor

    @narya: I did that with the last phone call I got. I said, “Let me save you some time. I’m voting straight Democratic. My husband is too. How are the calls going?”

    The caller kind of laughed, said well enough, and thanked me.

  22. 22.

    Ksmiami

    @Ishiyama: I do not trust white men and a lot of white women. That said, if the MAGATs win, I hope they lose all their money and I just don’t care what happens to them at all.

  24. 24.

    wjca

    @Juju.: I never thought much of Reagan, but I don’t think even zombie Reagan would support Trump.

    Reagan was relentlessly optimistic. (“Morning in America!”)  Whereas Trump is relentlessly downbeat.  So just not compatible.

  26. 26.

    Baud

    @Ksmiami:

    I’m happy to let them free ride on the benefits of a Democratic America, but I already don’t care what happens to them.

    Truly, the only thing preventing me from being a real monster is the innocent victims of Republicanism. Why else should I care?

  27. 27.

    frosty

    @Ishiyama: If Harris/Walz has the money advantage why do I get a dozen emails and texts a day saying they’re being outspent???

    Yes, I know why. It works.

  29. 29.

    narya

    @Baud: hah! No—she seemed to think it energized them, both to hear that she is going to vote for Harris and that she had done it in the past. I also told her to take her ballot to the post office and have them hand stamp the date; neighbor will do that too.

  30. 30.

    PsiFighter37

    Honestly – our side needs to be ramping up campaigning. I know it’s hard to plan logistics far in advance, but the sheer number of events that Obama would do in 2008 pales in comparison to what is getting done now. As Walz likes to say, we can sleep when we are dead. Big venues, small settings – it all needs to get done in the next month.

    Also, it appears that Arizona is the one swing state where the GOP has appeared more than Harris/Walz. Time to change that, especially since Gallego is going to torch Lake without any trouble.

  33. 33.

    BR

    @PsiFighter37: ​

    Yeah, I have been wondering why the campaign hasn’t been doing that many events for like a month now. Maybe Harris and Walz were doing a ton of debate prep? I dunno. But now it’s time for all gas no brakes.

  37. 37.

    Baud

    @BR:

    Trick or treating with his daughters in their neighborhood in Chicago, IL.

    Like he didn’t even care.
    Thanks.

    ETA: It’ll be interesting to see how Harris’s October compares.

  38. 38.

    JoyceH

    Hey, I know we shouldn’t “politicize” disaster relief, but can we politicize the fact that MAGA is politicizing disaster relief?

  40. 40.

    Librarian

    @PsiFighter37: Yes, I’ve seen some Dems on twitter panicking because Harris supposedly isn’t campaigning as hard as she should be, or she has a lighter schedule this month than she should, and I’m starting to get concerned.

  44. 44.

    Chet Murthy

    @dmsilev: @KatKapCC: Reagan could have told TCFG to get fucked,  b/c back then there was simply no alternative to white supremacy.  Black people were powerless, LGBTQ folks were in the closet fearing for their lives, and there were just not that many nonwhite immigrants.  It would take a couple of generations for all that to change, and those changes are what are driving the emergence of MAGA: the very real fear that they’re losing the control they’ve had for all of this country’s existence.

  47. 47.

    KatKapCC

    @Librarian: How many events do they expect her to do? Ten a day? She’s been doing rallies and other events consistently. Over the past couple of weeks, there was a rally in Flint, event in Detroit, the Ripon event with Liz Cheney, rally in Vegas, event in AZ, economy event in Pittsburgh, rally in Madison, event in Atlanta, the Oprah thing. If there are Dems “panicking” because “oh no she isn’t literally spending 25 hours every day talking to eleventy-million people and we’re gonna lose!!!!” then those Chicken Littles need to shut up and direct that energy to GOTV rather than wasting time wringing their useless hands on social media.

  49. 49.

    Chet Murthy

    @Dorothy A. Winsor: Wow.  just.  Wow.  I can’t imagine actually answering a landline: I mean, you can’t see the caller’s number, how can you know whether it’s a scammer?  And there’s not an automatic answering-machine, so I actually have to answer, no way to send it to voicemail.

    This seems ….. suboptimal.  Surely there’s a better way of distributing whatever information they need to distribute?

  50. 50.

    PsiFighter37

    @BR: Pretty straightforward. I was at my most politically active during this time, so I am very acutely aware of how Obama outhustled the Clinton campaign in the primary and McCain in the general. That is the gold standard for turning out as many votes as possible (even if Biden got more in 2020).

  52. 52.

    Anoniminous

    Harris’ campaign staff has won three national elections.

    I think they know what they’re doing.

  53. 53.

    jonas

    @dmsilev: They hate Reagan now, what with his anti-Russia and pro-immigrant stuff. The only people hanging on to the remaining shreds of Reagan’s legacy are Never Trumpers like Max Boot and we all know how much sway they have in today’s Trump cult GOP.

  54. 54.

    Chet Murthy

    @Anoniminous: It’s a funny thing: I’m still pretty dour on our prospects; I mean, it’s not as bad as it was in July, but from what I can see it’s pretty close to 50-50, and that’s not what I’d call a promising situation.  Maybe we win, maybe we lose.  If we lose, yeah, everything will change, just everything.  It will be horrific.  My life in America will be over, for starters.  So I’m not being Pollyanna.

    But I just don’t see the point in panicking at this late date.  Whatever we’re gonna do, we’re gonna do.  As a movement, and as individuals.  Each of us.  Changing course four weeks out?  Nopes, that’s foolishness.

  55. 55.

    Villago Delenda Est

    As might be expected from a member of the Sons of Julius Streicher Bund, Jesse Watters seems to think that Obama campaigning for Harris is a sign that the Harris/Walz internal polling folks are in a panic.

  59. 59.

    cain

    Anybody catch the fact that the DC press didn’t even bother to get up when Biden came into the briefing room? Assholes.

  66. 66.

    frosty

    @PsiFighter37: I canvassed both of Obama’s elections. They were the most organized of any one I worked on. And of course, four years later it was all forgotten and we had to start over.

    OFA didn’t stick around. None of the presidential campaigns do.

  69. 69.

    KatKapCC

    @Chet Murthy: I’m confused by your sense of landlines. We’re not talking about old-style rotary phones. Landline phones can have caller ID, and you can indeed just let it ring and go to voicemail.

  72. 72.

    Chet Murthy

    @eclare: yes, it used-to-be that b/c landlines were copper to the nearest central office, they were more reliable in the face of power outages.  But more and more, they’re converted to IP at the nearest junction box (so I read) so that advantage has disappeared.  But really, let’s assume they’re more reliable.  The problem is who will actually pick up a landline call?  i mean, when I had one back in the noughties, it was -strictly- for outgoing calls (e.g. to 911).  Nothing else.  I literally gave the number to nobody.  And yet somehow I get calls on it, and after a while, got so fed up I had it disconnected.

  77. 77.

    cain

    @Chet Murthy: Maybe it was published in the phone book?

    In any case, spammers are destroying communications. It’s almost best to not even have any comms devices. It’s a tough world out there.

  78. 78.

    eclare

    @Chet Murthy:

    Like someone wrote, let it go to VM, then check.  That’s what my aunt does with hers, if she doesn’t recognize the number that is calling.

    She also has a cell, but that’s the number that she never gives out.  Only a handful of relatives have it, so she knows if it rings it’s serious.

  80. 80.

    Chet Murthy

    @KatKapCC: haha, OK, I’ve used landlines in the 21st century, I swear.  I’ve had cordless phones (had one back in the late 80s from Plantronics that was a sweet ‘un, the size of a cigarette pack w/a headset), and I know about caller-id and voicemail on landline phones.  But those are all add-ons, right?  You pay for that.  Whereas, you get that pretty much for free with the shittiest of shitphones ($20 already).  I’m 60, but haven’t answered a phone for a decade unless I recognize the number (or am waiting for a call and  don’t know the number it’ll be coming from): everything else goes to a voicemail where a message explains that with all the telmarketing spam, there’s a good chance I’m right there, waiting for you to leave your message so I can hear it can call you right back.

  82. 82.

    blindyone

    1. @Chet Murthy: Agree with you but not feeling quite as dour. I am very concerned for people close to me, including members of my immediate family, who don’t have the “right complexion for protection “ that I do.
  83. 83.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @KatKapCC: can you even get a land line without voice mail? I have AT&T optical fiber. I don’t answer that phone (it’s in a closet with the router). Every so often I “clean out the volcano” (listen to messages).

  85. 85.

    Anoniminous

    @Chet Murthy:

    I like our chances.  Nobody knows how Dobbs will play out with women; a quite possible 2% R -> D shift in white women means Harris is elected, we take the House, and keep the Senate.

  86. 86.

    KatKapCC

    @Chet Murthy: I mean, I guess you pay yeah, but it’s just sort of part of the phone bill. I know a number of older folks, including my parents and my partner’s parents, as well as uncles and aunts, who have landlines and I’m pretty sure they all have caller ID and voicemail. Most of them have Xfinity where the caller ID shows up on the TV screen.

  90. 90.

    scav

    @Chet Murthy: Well, as for calls coming in, they will just sometimes call random(ish) numbers, you personally don’t have to give it to anyone.

    The whole copper wire v. conversion to VOIP has indeed gotten confusing, at least here it varies by carrier (Mom really wanted copper, so had to research).
    Another random thought I had is wondering about door phones and related services somehow getting linked to essentially landlines for larger buildings.  I can envision systems being designed to piggyback on landlines rather than having dedicated wiring.

  93. 93.

    Chet Murthy

    @KatKapCC: OK, clearly I’m a different (haha!) wavelength here.  A landline system that is delivered via something like Xfinity …. that’s coming in over IP, and that means it might just as well be via cell.  Or in my case, via my Internet connection (Google Fi automatically switches to wifi when it’s available, and my home wifi has very goood connectivity).  So there’s really no upside to a landline at that point.  It’s all the same infrastructure.

    The only time I can see the point of a landline is when it comes in over copper, and is copper all the way back to the central office so there’s no IP infrastructure to lose power during local outages.  Otherwise, I just don’t see the point.

  94. 94.

    sab

    @eclare: We kept our landline ( ATT) for a while because my brother in law in Louisiana said it was the only thing that worked in the weeks immediately after Katrina. But then we discovered that in our neighborhood in Ohio it went out everytime it rained. And it is damn near impossible to cancel any service coming from ATT.

  95. 95.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @Chet Murthy: I’m fairly sure AT&T fiber is battery backed though I had to add a UPS at my house. In the most recent local power failure the phone (and Internet) stayed up.

  96. 96.

    Another Scott

    @Villago Delenda Est: This is comical and self-refuting.

    If you really think your opponent is doing something wrong, you shut up and let them keep doing it.

    This zombie idea that Democrats should listen to Republicans on how to win elections is just so ridiculous.  But the media keeps shoveling it on us and expecting us to accept it…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  97. 97.

    KatKapCC

    @Chet Murthy: Okay, when most people discuss “cell” vs “landline” they’re not talking about the tech specs. Like…people don’t have landlines because they prefer the infrastructure of the entire phone-delivery system. For a lot of older folks, a landline is just more familiar and they still think of a cell phone as a secondary thing, not a primary. And in the case of my relatives, they have their phone service through Xfinity because it was offered as a bundle deal, not because they think “Xfinity landline is better than a cell” or something.

  100. 100.

    frosty

    @Baud: Yeah, there’s something to be said about having a former community organizer in charge. Everything gets organized!

  102. 102.

    Chet Murthy

    @KatKapCC: Ha!  OK, I get that completely!  form-factor/user-experience is everything!  Last night I got into a discussion of computer operating systems at LG&M, and somebody confessed to still loving OS/2.  I put it to them that what they loved was the OS/2 UI, and nothing but the UI.  And they agreed!  Completely!

  103. 103.

    Emily B.

    @Chet Murthy: Copper wire in my landline meant that I still had phone service during the week-long power outage following Superstorm Sandy, while my friends were trudging two miles to charge their phones at Starbucks. Once Verizon switched to fiber optic, I said goodbye to the landline. I guess I’ll have to rely on solar chargers in the next blackout.

  104. 104.

    Chet Murthy

    @Emily B.: Got a relative who has a house up in Marin.  Solar + battery + Starlink.  When the power went out up there, they were basically unaffected (though their battery did drain down, the power came back before it hit zero).

  106. 106.

    Chet Murthy

    @Jinchi: I -want- to believe this, but it’s very difficult to do so, b/c it implies that basically -every- poll is wrong,  and that includes a lot of liberal-leaning ones.  If this transpires, it will completely  overturn opinion-polling, right ?  And I’m just not ready to make such a leap without compelling evidence.

    All that said, if I believed she was gonna lose (for reals yo, for reals) I’d be packing my bags.  So the fact that I’m sitting here sweating in my SF apartment means that I still have nontrivial hope.

  107. 107.

    kindness

    I ditched my landline 3 years ago.  I held out forever.  In the end the only calls I was getting on it were cold call sales calls.  My friends & family knew to call or text my cell.  Originally we had to have it for the dsl.  Over the years it seems that is no longer an ATT requirement.  Funny they never announced that.

  108. 108.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: I remember Election Night 2008.  I was working with Twitter (on loan from IBM) and when we finished up that night it was really late (probably after midnight?) and I left and walked home (pretty far) b/c the streets were one gynormous party.  I mean, -everywhere- there were people out in the streets celebrating.  Everywhere.  It felt like some sort of -redemption- after eight years of The Chimperor.

    Here’s hoping!

  109. 109.

    Baud

    @Chet Murthy:

     If this transpires, it will completely  overturn opinion-polling, right ?

    Polls underestimated Trump’s and Republicans’ support a good bit in 2020. Wasn’t enough of a miss to cost us the election, but it didn’t stop people from paying for polls, or from reading them religiously.

  110. 110.

    Baud

    @Chet Murthy: It was a nice moment. Our follow through sucked though. Honestly, our follow through with Biden also sucked. I can only hope the next time is better.

  112. 112.

    Baud

    @Chet Murthy: I thought 50-50 was our chances with the electoral college, while 6% would be the national win margin. Not quite apples and oranges, but granny smith apples vs. red delicious apples.

  113. 113.

    JerseyBeard

    Just finished my first two-hour phone bank for Harris calling Wisconsin Dems and undecideds. Holy moly is that a grind! But a grind worth doing. Spoke to some solid Dems, a couple undecided, and a Trump leaner (got all the Fox-ecosystem talking points fed to me, maybe I broke through a bit, who knows but we talked for ten mins which surprised me).

    The crew running the phone banking operation has their shit together. 166 people on my Zoom for the 2-4pm ET shift. The on camera crew definitely skewed older and whiter,  it there were three pages of camera off people, so again, who knows.

    I highly recommend signing up for a 2hr shift. It’s super easy from a desktop or tablet, and for every ten hangups/wrong numbers I actually got to speak to a voter who I could impact.

  114. 114.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: OK, now I’m -genuinely- curious: I really underestimated Biden[1], and so was shocked when he performed so well.  What do you mean by “our follow-through sucked [with Biden]” ?

    [1] Of course, the one place where I expected a “national security pol” like Biden to shine, was in prosecuting the fuck out of coup participants.  And there I was disapppointed AF, so if that’s what you mean by “follow thru sucked” I’m right there with ya’!

  117. 117.

    Baud

    @Chet Murthy:

    What do you mean by “our follow-through sucked [with Biden]” ?

    His poll numbers were underwater, sometimes deeply, most of his term. And he’s not running for reelection despite his successes, is he?

    We did do historically well in the midterms. I’ll give us that.

  119. 119.

    suzanne

    I would attend that event with Obama…. but I’ll be celebrating my 15th wedding anniversary! Out of the country!

    First trip without the kids. Packing it full. Leaving on Wednesday.

  121. 121.

    Chet Murthy

    @Anoniminous: Damn!  Wrong side of the state!  If you’re gonna hit FL, you gotta do it from the Atlantic side, Milton!  Otherwise you’ll be spent by the time you get to Merde-a-Lardo!

  122. 122.

    JoyceH

    @Baud:

    I thought 50-50 was our chances with the electoral college, while 6% would be the national win margin.

    4.5% was Biden’s margin – before J6 and before Dobbs. If Harris only wins by 6% I’ll be surprised.

  125. 125.

    Baud

    @JoyceH: I hope so. I hear a lot of talk on the Internet, but unless people can translate that into action, no one is going to take the talk seriously.

  126. 126.

    Harrison Wesley

    @Anoniminous: Yeah, last thing I saw on Accuweather (FWIW) was that it was projected to make landfall just south of Tampa.  I’m guessing, like Manatee County.  Like where I live.  Let the good times roll!

  130. 130.

    Anoniminous

    Again, again, I say ….

    Poll shows Kansans closely divided on constitutional amendment on abortion

    “As things stand in the Co/efficient poll shared with FiveThirtyEight, 47% of the more than 1,500 voters sampled support the so-called “Value Them Both” amendment, and 43% are against it. The remaining 10% are undecided.”

    The Abortion Vote In Kansas Looks Like It’s Going To Be Close

    “On Aug. 2, Kansans will vote on a state constitutional amendment that would clarify that the state’s bill of rights does not protect Kansans’ right to an abortion. And even though the state leans Republican, new polling and fundraising numbers suggest it’s a close race.”

    Kansas voters defeat abortion amendment in unexpected landslide

    “Kansas voters in a landslide Tuesday defeated a constitutional amendment that would have stripped residents of abortion rights, defying polling and political observers who expected a close result.

    The ballot measure was failing by a 60-40 margin late Tuesday after voters responded to an intense and costly campaign marked by dubious claims by amendment supporters and the unraveling of protections by the U.S. Supreme Court.”

  139. 139.

    Another Scott

    @Anoniminous: +1

    Not to be one of those “unskew the polls guys”, but (posted here earlier) Rick Perlstein made some decent points about the history of polling and the difficulties now:

    That error opens up onto the myriad conceptual fallacies built into the entire enterprise, if something so unavoidable can be called an “error.” Past performance is no guarantee of future results; but past performance is all a pollster has to go on. That’s why much of the process of choosing and weighting samples is … well, you can call it “more art than science.” Or you can call it “intuitive.” Or you can call it “trial and error.” But you can also call it “made up.”

    Doing sensible polls is difficult, especially in the days of caller ID and cell phones. And it’s more difficult when the voting system changes (e.g. making it much, much easier to vote) and when new voters (who often/usually aren’t in the “likely voter” universe) turn out.

    Everything I see with my own lying eyes tells me that Turnp and the GQP are much weaker than they were in 2016 and 2020. But we have to do the work to run up the score to make the future we want to see.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  140. 140.

    Captain C

    @KatKapCC:

    How many events do they expect her to do? Ten a day? She’s been doing rallies and other events consistently.

    “Kamala Harris has disappeared from the media despite a heavy schedule of appearances and rallies.  We have no clue why.  It must be her fault”  — the FTFNYT, probably

  141. 141.

    FelonyGovt

    Just saw a T*ump commercial during the ballgame. Man, they’re getting desperate. Criminal aliens! Transgender surgeries in prison! Kamala with the guy from Queer Eye who’s wearing a dress!!!

  143. 143.

    Chet Murthy

    @Another Scott: In the first episode of _Homicide: Life on the Streets_, we are introduced to Detective Frank Pembleton, in a scene where he is trying to find the police car (a white Chevy Cavalier, in a parking garage filled with them) that matches the key he has in his hand.  The problem is that the last person to use the car didn’t write down the stall# where he left it.  So Pembleton goes down the aisle, trying each car. His partner-for-the-day, Beau Felton, thinks this is crazy: they should go back up and get a different key to a different car.  But Pembleton insists (paraphrased):

    “I have a plan and I’m sticking to it!  Somewhere in this garage there is a car this key matches, and I will find it!”

    I always found that this was a real (ahem) key to Pembleton’s character in the show.

  144. 144.

    Baud

    @FelonyGovt: Those are just modern versions of the standard GOP playbook. Demonizing non-white people and LGBT. They’ve been doing one or another form of that since at least Reagan.

  145. 145.

    nonrev

    I’ll tell you truthfully,  I knocked on doors for Obama, made phone calls, contributed $$ but looking back, with the exception of the ACA, his presidency was Meh.  He had a Dem Senate and House for two years and could have accomplished much but while he was long on soaring speeches he was short on follow through.  He still believed in comity.  But it wasn’t a time for comity.  I look at Obamas Presidency as missed opportunities and failure to press and really fight for the Democrats ideals.  A failure to confront the radicalization and obstruction of the Republican party with anything but sour looks and speeches that failed to be translated into action or strategy

  146. 146.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: For those who haven’t watched it, this Timothy Snyder segment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOjJtEkKMX4

    is to my mind essential viewing to understand our moment. It’s true that G(r)OPers have been demonizing since the jump.  But back then they had a positive program that they claimed would help Americans.  Today, they have no such: all they have, ALL THEY HAVE is demonization.  Their pitch is “those bad people over there are the ones responsible for your pain; give us power and we will punish them.”  They are promising to be sadists, and that is the entirety of their pitch.

    Sadopopulism.

    It explains how bit-by-bit, they are ratcheting up the demonization, the lies, and how and why they are running with literally -nothing- else.

  147. 147.

    catclub

    @KatKapCC: I have a feeling Reagan would tell Trump to get fucked.

     

    Nope. The people like Ed Meese  and the billionaires

    in Reagan’s kitchen cabinet would tell Reagan to fall in line.

  148. 148.

    Baud

    @Chet Murthy:

    True, but isn’t that just keeping with the times? Dems still have positive programs, but even we’re still now having to emphasize “vibes.” If programs mattered as much, Biden would still be the nominee.

  150. 150.

    Chet Murthy

    @nonrev: I think you’re forgetting that America back then was a different place.  If Obama had governed as you desired, he’d have been turfed-out after a single term, if not gotten assassinated.  He -had- to govern with extreme sensibility to the right-wing, in order to be legitimate in the eyes of America.  Remember when he said that if he’d had a son, he might have looked like Trayvon?  The firestorm that erupted?  Remember when he called that cop that arrested Skip Gates, a full professor, on his own porch for disorderly conduct?  Another firestorm.

    Back closer to our own time, imagine if Leonard Leo had convinced the Neanderthals who run Mississippi to not bring the Dobbs case.  If he’d convinced them to wait until TCFG was back in power.  They’d be romping to victory right now, and a lot of the women who have joined forces behind Harris wouldn’t be doing so.

    I don’t have to like these facts to recognize them as true.  Americans (it would seem) never appreciate their freedoms until AFTER they’ve been taken away.  It is what it is.

  151. 151.

    Anoniminous

    @Another Scott: ​

    To do accurate Statistical Analysis every member of the population under test has to have an equal random chance of being selected as part of the sample. That’s not a ‘good idea.’ That’s not ‘unskewing the polls.’ It is a fundamental mathematical Necessary-But-Not-Sufficient condition to achieve a high level of confidence in the results. Pollster today simply cannot meet that requirement. Thus we get things like that bullshit Sienna/FTNYT poll that had Trump winning 30% of the black male vote because one of three black men included in the polling sample said he was going to vote for Trump.

    And what I have been saying for months and @Villago Delenda Est said above: after Dobbs everything changed

  153. 153.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: The “vibes” that the Dems use are mostly positive: they tell parts of their base that they’re going to protect them, restore their rights, etc.  It’s a positive program, even if it’s skimpy on details.  But the G(r)OPers have no positive program aside from sadism.  Even the one concrete thing TCFG rails about (“tariffs!  tariffs!  TARIFFS!”) is really more sadism: it’s to -punish- China, not to actually achieve anything.

    that video is really worth watching.  Snyder draws the links between oligarchic rule, with its prizing loyalty over competence, and the retreat to sadopopulism as the only viable strategy for winning elections.

  157. 157.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: By this I think you’re referring to ditching Biden?  I don’t  think the Dems did that because they hate old people, or b/c they hate Biden.  They (I) love Biden, as we could tell from the reception he got at the DNC.  They ditched him b/c the media ginned up a firestorm.  It was completely forced upon them.

  159. 159.

    ArchTeryx

    For me, personally, this is all about survival, just like it was in 2016 after TCFG was elected.

    It isn’t just the election. I have a very dear lesbian friend who just found out her car’s transmission fell out to the tune of $5000, and she doesn’t have the $ to fix it or replace the car. I have a number of other friends also in very hard times economically. I myself am doing okay, but HR has dragged my already-confirmed promotion out by six+ months, months of money I need badly. I will get the back pay, but… in the short term, with so many people needing $, I am caught out in a Texas hailstorm.

    And that’s not even beginning to get into what happens if TCFG is elected, which there seems to be at LEAST a 50/50 chance of. I see a whole lot of hopium, copium, and extremely close polls, and I have no idea what to believe any more. I do know this: If he’s elected, I and my fiancee will have to flee the country. We’re registered D, we’re both heavily disabled, neither of us have political connections, and we live right next to MAGAtland in NYS. I really do not look forward to being a political refugee in my own country for the third time with my and my fiancee’s lives on the line.

    ( In a much earlier thread, someone asked me why the hell I live close to a gun range. The answer is: I have no choice. I live with my best friend, fiancee, and 2 other people in a rooming house. Until I get my salary boost, rents are completely out of reach here. Yet another thing I have to worry about.

    Personal vent over. Back to hiding, filling out postcards, and taking medical pot to prevent my having a complete nervous breakdown.

  162. 162.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: I think  we should distinguish between what -voters- want, and the -program- offered by the Party to the voters.  I’m talking about the latter, not the former.  The sales-pitch, in short.  That’s what Snyder is addressing in that video, and TCFG’s sales-pitch is 100% demonizing.  He’s gotten  to the part where he’s demonizing FEMA, eh?

  163. 163.

    Another Scott

    @Anoniminous: Yeah.  They have too much magic sauce in their weighting.

    I’m remembering that a previous FTFNYT poll had a response rate of 0.7% or so.  I can’t quickly find that number in their latest mid-west crosstabs.

    I see way, way way down at the bottom:

    Historically, the Times/Siena Poll’s error at the 95th percentile has been plus or minus 5.1 percentage points in surveys taken over the final three weeks before an election. Real-world error includes sources of error beyond sampling error, such as nonresponse bias, coverage error, late shifts among undecided voters and error in estimating the composition of the electorate.

    +/- 5.1% is huge.

    Their “sources of error” basically indicate that Perlstein and other critics are right. It’s astrology, not a scientific estimate of the state of the electorate.

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  167. 167.

    Chet Murthy

    @Baud: Well, yes.  That’s my point: all that remains for him is to demonize.  He has no positive program.  That’s all I’m saying.  Every G(r)OPer candidate before him, had a positive program.  Sure, we could poke holes in it, but they -had- one.  He doesn’t, not anymore.  I’m not saying that this means he’ll lose.  Rather, I’m saying that this is what Snyder talks about in that video, about how what the oligarch offers to his voters, is sadism.  

  168. 168.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

    @Anoniminous: ​
     
    Also too:

    In the 2022 pennsylvania senate race, both 538 and real clear politics polling aggregates had Oz beating Fetterman by a half a point. Fetterman won by 5 pts.

    In the 2021 California recall, both outfits had the recall being reject by 15 points, it ended up being rejected by 24 pts.

  170. 170.

    geg6

    @Librarian:

    They’ve been here in the Pittsburgh region continuously since the convention.  Many people don’t necessarily see this nationally, but she practically lives here since early August.  Trump many fewer times.  She gets local news coverage and did a fairly long interview with the political reporter at the local CBS (KDKA) affiliate. Most of the local events are smaller and more intimate. She’s working her ass off.

  175. 175.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: Anything you want it to be!

    Astronomy.com:

    This movement alters the view of the zodiac from Earth, making the constellations appear to slide to the east, roughly a degree per human lifetime. Though slow, precession was discovered with the naked eye by Hipparchus of Nicaea around 150 B.C.

    In ancient times, the vernal equinox – or the first day of spring – was in Aries. Due to precession, it moved into Pisces around 100 B.C., where it is now and will remain until A.D. 2700, when it will move into Aquarius and so on. Over the course of 25,800 years, it will eventually return to Aries and the cycle will begin again.

    In the popular press I’m a Sagittarius. But I’m actually, according to science, a Scorpio.

    ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  176. 176.

    catclub

    @Chet Murthy: and TCFG’s sales-pitch is 100% demonizing

    and that pitch is perfect for the authoritarian followers who make up the bulk of his cult.  I hope there are not enough of them to push the election to Trump.

  177. 177.

    David 🐝KHive🐝 Koch

     Helena Woods, a professional astrologer, tells [The Economist]… Kamala Harris, Jupiter and Saturn are aligning in her favour. “If she does win, I do think she might carry out two terms,” says Ms Woods.

    I always liked Saturn. Runs rings around the other planets.

  179. 179.

    Princess

    @FelonyGovt: Every time someone describes a Trump commercial to me I get the feeling that I just learned way way more about his taste in porn than I ever wanted to know.

  180. 180.

    ArchTeryx

    @Baud: Which is why they are so easy to turn out. Hate sells very well in this country. Always has. It doesn’t always win, but it never fails to sell. And nobody since Ronald Reagan can sell hate better than TCFG.

  182. 182.

    scribbler

    @ArchTeryx:  Hang in there.  I hope your promotion comes through soon.  Even though the economy is doing well in many ways, lots of hard working people are still struggling.  I see that among my own family and friends too.

  183. 183.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anoniminous:
    The cone is really large now for this storm. Will tighten up.
    The gulf waters over its projected path look warm enough for it to spin up to a Cat 4 or 5. (My main gulf water temp source is down due to flooding from Helene in Asheville, the page says.)
    Milton cyclocane link

  184. 184.

    3Sice

    Traditional “tip and ring” voice is tariffed a by state PUC’s. Long haul by the ICC then the FCC. It carries voltage and has higher up time requirements. Cellular is the purview of the FCC. Cable and fiber operators are municipal franchisees. The last mile power resilience requirements for the new tech is mostly suggestive.

  186. 186.

    ArchTeryx

    @scribbler: I’ll be a WHOLE lot happier if Kamala Harris beats TCFG in the election. That won’t solve all my problems, but it removes the single biggest threat to my and mine’s lives. The other problems get a whole lot easier to deal with if I’m not forced to become a refugee and flee for the Canadian border.

  187. 187.

    ArchTeryx

    @Baud: Vote for motion here. At this stage it’s all running according to a plan, save for unexpected things (like Milton). She’ll be in full “No Sleep ‘Till Brooklyn” mode until Election Day. Early voting has begun. Whatever is going to happen, now, is going to happen.

  188. 188.

    SW

    Polls are broken.  The reality is that we have two tribes.  At this particular point in time they have similar numbers although their tribe is shrinking while ours is growing.  What will determine the outcome is which tribe manages to get the higher fraction of its members to vote.  For pollsters, this is where their likely voter models come into play.  So yeah, in a very real sense it is made up.  The results of the polls depends almost completely on which tribe the pollster believes is going to do the best job of getting their people to vote.  Like generals they develop a strategy to fight the last war.  The last war was pre-Dobbs.

  189. 189.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Chet Murthy:

    The only time I can see the point of a landline is when it comes in over copper, and is copper all the way back to the central office so there’s no IP infrastructure to lose power during local outages. Otherwise, I just don’t see the point.

    I don’t know what Verizon’s system looks like. But I do know our phones worked when the power was out for four days after Isabel came through in 2003.

  192. 192.

    trollhattan

    @lowtechcyclist:

    Our land line connects via FO and the modem has a battery backup. It has never not worked during a power outage until the battery goes kaput.

    Since it also doesn’t connect to a traditional centralized switching system I have no idea where mine connects to nor how robust its power backup might be. Fiber optic has its own vulnerabilities, beginning with “dude and backhoe.”

  193. 193.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Chet Murthy: There are folks who landlines because they live where they can’t get cell reception. It’s not always “rural” as you might think of it.

    For example, the Santa Cruz mountains running down the SF Peninsula to Santa Cruz has plenty of multi-million dollar mansions within view of Silicon Valley that don’t have cell phone service. I know because there’s plenty of dead zones when I drive Skyline Boulevard up there.

  194. 194.

    geg6

    @BR:

    See it all the time!  It’s huge and right where it’s visible to everyone in our county seat, the town of Beaver.  Lots of old school Republicans live there.  They think they’re the Sewickley of Beaver County.  If you know the area, you know that any town in Beaver County does not have the old (and new) cachet or money of Sewickley in Allegheny County.  But so glad to see this there.

  195. 195.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @SW: This!  Dan Pfeiffer has done some good explainers on this.  Polling is almost entirely a challenge of figuring out what the electorate will look like on Election Day (who shows up and votes), not how the groups will vote (which is fairly predictable).  If we knew which people (and where) were gonna vote, we could pretty easily predict the result.

  196. 196.

    Starfish

    My mom said she is not voting for President (again.)

    I am polling one person, and it is my mom. I feel disappointed. I am sure my sister does too.

  197. 197.

    cmorenc

    @dmsilev:

    I’m sure Trump will be able to counter with some equally popular among Republicans former President.

    Zombie Reagan is available, isn’t he?

    Not so sure Reagan would give Trump any active help or blessing, although he might not go all Liz Cheney and publicly approve of Harris.

     

     

     

     

    \

  200. 200.

    PatD

    @nonrev: What most people leave out of these critiques is that Congressional Dem leadership in general was meh. The President can only sign what gets to the desk.

  203. 203.

    Eolirin

    @Chet Murthy: Trump does in fact make positive pitches though. We ignore them because we know he’s lying and they’re often crazy, but he makes them. He won in 2016 promising to defend SS, and make Healthcare access even better than it was. And to get rid of all the crooks and corruption in Washington.

    This cycle he’s been making pitches about how he’s going to make everything better in every way. Sometimes in vague nonsensical, and often disturbing ways, like the no one is going to protect women better than me rant, and sometimes with policy specifics, like getting rid of taxes on tipped wages.

    The GOP broadly usually does not make these kinds of positive appeals anymore, but Trump does.

  204. 204.

    Msb

    @Starfish: it may not help, but you can truthfully tell your mom that not voting gives a choice about her own life to somebody else. Bad idea.

  206. 206.

    Jay

    @Sister Golden Bear:

    The easiest way to tell people how to find our place when we lived in the hills, was to drive up the Forest Service Road, until you got a cell phone signal.

    Yagi antenna on a 40 foot mast and an industrial repeater pointed at Mt. Chewels.

    5 bars inside the house 4 bars on the property, 1 bar a km away, then 0 bars with in 15 km.

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