Every time I hear an old timer refer to an approaching storm as a “hurrikin,” I think of this scene from My Fair Lady:
Enough with the interesting times already! From this morning’s Tampa Bay Times:
It’s a Cat 5 now. Yikes.
We were just watching local officials on TV take turns lecturing citizens who are reluctant to evacuate as if speaking to pouty children.
I don’t begrudge the hectoring tone. Lots of people are filled with false bravado and/or stubborn as mules. Then they complain when harmed or inconvenienced by the predicted event.
***
We should be okay at our place. The county ordered evacuations on the coast and all mobile homes by 2 PM tomorrow, but we are inland a bit and in a reasonably sturdy stilt house.
Also, we’ve got supplies for a couple of weeks in case things get really bad. The river will rise if we get a ton of rain, but it’s still got leftover capacity from the 2023 drought, so we’ve got that going for us.
Stay safe out there! Open thread.
zhena gogolia
We’ll be thinking of you. Please be safe.
Steve LaBonne
Good luck. This is really looking bad.
geg6
Thinking of you and my friends in Tampa, Bradenton and Orlando. May you all be safe. This looks really bad.
Soprano2
I’ve got a couple of people who used to be regular customers who may be in the path of that. I hope they’re smart enough to evacuate!
p.a.
Any local Florida news outlets questioning the multitude of climate change denying pols down there?
chopper
it’s good you’re prepared and in a decent spot but def still have a bug-out plan cause this shit can change on a dime
Freemark
Already at Cat 5. The only ‘good’ news is that it is supposed to weaken shortly before hitting the coast. Fucking hope so. Everyone in Florida stay safe.
bbleh
This is truly eek. Tampa Bay is by all accounts unusually vulnerable to storm surge, and the forecast is for Milton (seriously? Milton?) to hit at about the worst possible place, ie barely to the north.
Irmaria — TWO, count ’em, cat-5 hurricanes — hit the USVI in the space of a WEEK about 7 years ago, and the reports we got from one cousin who was in a NICE MODERN house built to withstand hurricanes and appropriately “boarded up” were … scary indeed. Like retreating from one room to the next as the wind and water leakage became too much.
Stay safe, and if in doubt, get tf out.
Gvg
I am in such a grumpy mood about this one. Not happy at all.
Apparently, the last time the evacuated Tampa was for Irma about 7 years ago and the roads were so clogged that people ran out of gas and were stuck in traffic when it hit so some people said they would never evacuate again. Florida and fema made plans to declare evacuation earlier and preposition more gas along routes and now plans are being used. They have already closed schools and have mandetory evacuation orders for nursing homes. My sisters north Florida hospital is getting patients being transferred already. It’s not last minute which is good.
I told my relatives to get gas and supplies early this time because the people will come now.
SW
Paradise Lost wasn’t it?
satby
The people renting my late mom’s condo are from Finland. I hope they need the warnings and get out.
Quaker in a Basement
You sure it isn’t time for a road trip to Micanopy?
brendancalling
Good luck out there! Remember, climate change is a Chinese hoax and HAARP is controlling the weather. KEEP YOUR MAGNETS DRY OR THEY WON’T WORK.
Old School
My mother-in-law fled the Tampa area last week for Helene. She was planning on returning the end of this week, but I know she’s scared of what she’ll find when she does.
Danielx
If authorities start telling people to write their names and birthdates on their arms if they refuse to evacuate…
Scout211
Stay safe, Betty, Bill and pups. Everyone here will be thinking of you.
My sister and BIL in Orlando are as prepared as they can be but so many people lost their homes or were heavily damaged in the storm surge/flooding aftermath of Ian that everyone is on alert. Her friend and the friend’s neighbors all had their homes completely flooded by Ian and it’s taken until recently to repair the flood damage. Now this.
My sister and BIL do not have any power backup plan like a portable generator or Generac. That worries me. But their area did not flood with Ian so I am hopeful.
Fingers crossed for everyone in Florida. This is a big one 😬
Starfish
You are in a stilt house?!
My feeling about the stilt houses was frequently, “someone really wants you to be a little further away from the water so your house doesn’t have to be on stilts.”
cope
Since we bugged out of Central Florida after 33 years, I still check the NHC website daily during hurricane season and multiple times a day during events like Milton. Our only family still in Florida are in metropolitan Tampa so Milton really has my attention. Best of luck to you and yours.
frosty
@Starfish: In Florida, being a few miles further back doesn’t necessarily mean your house will be at a higher elevation. The highest point of the Lake Wales Ridge down the middle of the peninsula is 312 feet.
We were at Bok Tower (elev. 295) a few years ago and marveled at the view from the high ground. We could see for a couple of miles!
Ceci n est pas mon nym
How was Helene and its aftermath for you, Betty?
trollhattan
Best of luck Betty and other Floridians, whether self-admitted or not. A storm that can deliver in rain what we get in a year is a thing to be taken seriously.
Betty, I have some good news: when the time comes, you can consider pairing a butter hog with butter lamb!
TBone
Yesterday:
https://x.com/ArtCandee/status/1842986551703400507
He states that he’s taking a different approach than he has in the past. (Video at link.)
“Manage expectations.”
Raoul Paste
Please update us when you can. Hope it all goes well
ArchTeryx
Get the fuck out as soon as possible. Just get the hell away from Florida if you have any capability of doing so.
Nukular Biskits
BettyC, you may have answered this elsewhere but how far off the coast are you?
Quantum man
I remember (I think it was Camille…not sure) hit the gulf coast (Mississippi ). Idiots had hurricane parties. Many were swept into the gulf. A friend and I drove through there on the way to New Orleans. The destruction was awe inspiring in a negative way. Folks at risk need to get out. These storms are not to be dismissed or ignored.
Yarrow
Sending good thoughts, Betty. I know how it feels – the stay or go decision. You’ve made the right call and are prepared. Best anyone can do.
I know someone whose brother is in Sarasota and isn’t evacuating. My friend is a wreck and can’t even talk about it. Brother is stubborn.
trollhattan
@frosty:
True. Geography is a tricky devil. e.g., we’re 60 river miles from the SF Bay Estuary and yet a mere 16 ft MSL elevation. Current fall-conditions river elevation is a scant 8 ft, while monitor state is 27 ft and flood stage is 33 ft, which would mean roof height. The river exceeded monitor stage each of the last two winters.
[note to self, check if flood insurance is paid.]
Ken
Reminiscent of the Japanese tsunami stones, which basically say “do not build below this elevation”.
SiubhanDuinne
Thinking of you and Bill. And I know we have other Jackals who are right in Milton’s path. I hope everyone stays safe and checks in as soon as possible once the tempest passes through.
TBone
J.
Glad to hear you will likely be safe, Betty. We are going to be hunkering down in Naples (the one in Florida, not Italy) provided the track continues to be north of us. We are inland, not near a body of water, have a new roof, and hurricane impact doors and windows. Though all that didn’t make a difference on Sanibel. Albeit we lived near the Gulf and on a lake there — double whammy. Also, finding a place to shelter is going to be tough, especially with two cats.
Please think good thoughts for us!
Nukular Biskits
@trollhattan:
Excellent point.
Where I used to live (5 miles north of I-10 Exit 50) was about 50 feet elevation. HOWEVER, had Katrina come in a little more to the east at a slightly different angle, we would have possibly had flooding (or at least impassable roads) due to water being pushed up the Tchoutacabouffa River and tributaries.
dp
@zhena gogolia: What they said!
A Ghost to Most
Best of luck. Step-mother has a deal to sell her Ruskin waterside house, but the deal isn’t done yet. At least she’s not there.
prufrock
My family and I live in Pinellas County. My wife, daughter, and one of the dogs bugged out for Georgia about three hours ago.
My son, my other dog, and I are heading out in a couple of hours. I can’t comprehend how someone can look at that storm and not flee.
HumboldtBlue
Hope all goes well, Betty, keep the powder dry!
Elsewhere — the GOP is already laying the groundwork to try and deny election results yet again.
Nukular Biskits
Watergirl (if you’re lurking), you may have done this previously for Helene but maybe you should do a “sound off” for jackals who are in predicted impact area?
Suzanne
Ughhhhh. My uncle and aunt are currently not planning to evacuate. They live just a little bit south of Sarasota. My uncle has Parkinson’s and Lewy Body dementia, and being away from home is really hard. My cousin, who lives nearby them, has been closing the storm shutters at her house. I am freaking out.
HumboldtBlue
@TBone:
And here is Florida’s resident dipshit in chief at least acknowledging — begrudgingly, mind — the role of the Federal government.
Kellyl
I’ve been thinking about how long disaster recovery takes as I follow the news from Helene. My neighborhood lost 10 of 26 homes in Oregon’s Labor Day 2020 fires. Five have been rebuilt. Two were completed this summer. Marion County lost about 850 homes in a couple days. A county building inspector I spoke with last winter said about half were rebuilt or under construction. I know 2 of the houses were vacation homes that the owners have no plans to replace. Vast areas of the Cascades are still closed to entry due to unmitigated hazards. Another fire started near the Mt Jefferson Wilderness September 30. It’s small, under 200 acres. Fire season used to be over by now.
Kelly
I’ve been thinking about how long disaster recovery takes as I follow the news from Helene. My neighborhood lost 10 of 26 homes in Oregon’s Labor Day 2020 fires. Five have been rebuilt. Two were completed this summer. Marion County lost about 850 homes in a couple days. A county building inspector I spoke with last winter said about half were rebuilt or under construction. I know 2 of the houses were vacation homes that the owners have no plans to replace. Vast areas of the Cascades are still closed to entry due to unmitigated hazards. Another fire started near the Mt Jefferson Wilderness September 30. It’s small, under 200 acres. Fire season used to be over by now.
Tokyokie
Stay safe, Betty, and let us know how you’re doing. Everybody at BalloonJuice loves you and worries about you and your family!
Another Scott
Meanwhile, what’s left of Kirk will be hitting France Wednesday/Thursday.
:-/
Stay safe, Florida peeps!
Cheers,
Scott.
CaseyL
Best of luck Betty, Bill, Pete and Badger… and to all the other BJers in the storm’s path.
Or even not in the storm’s path, because transportation and supply logistics are going to suck even if the storm itself doesn’t hit you.
karen marie
@Kelly: Here in Arizona, days-over-105-degrees has extended into October. It will probably be the end of the month before we stop having 100+ days. I’m available for adoption.
Baud
I hope you can check in throughout the week. Stay safe.
Belafon
@Suzanne: Hopefully they will be safe.
BTW, I think we should introduce the word “tios” into English. It’s strange that we don’t have a single word to describe aunts and uncles even though we have one for kids, parents, grandparents, and cousins. We could also add “sobrinos” for nieces and nephews.
trollhattan
@Another Scott:
France?!?
It’s like the Hurricane God (there must be one in mythology) is on a bender, spinning around in his office swivel chair saying “Fuck you. And fuck you, and you, and you….”
Pew-pew-pew.
trollhattan
@karen marie:
Relatable. If you’re thinking about escaping, scratch California from your list.
Baud
@Belafon:
Ugh. Not looking forward to the debate over ti-x.
lowtechcyclist
@TBone:
St. Petersburg and Clearwater are in Pinellas County. It’s a peninsula with a million people living on it, sandwiched in between the Gulf of Mexico and Tampa Bay.
If I were living there, I’d be hitting the road TODAY to (hopefully) beat the rush.
Anoniminous
@Freemark:
Given the available potential energy I wouldn’t count on Milton weakening before landfall.
opiejeanne
My middle kid and her husband who just bought a house in Sarasota have decided that they will not try to ride out the storm. The decision was made when it was no longer a cat 2, thank goodness.
Kirk
@Another Scott:
MazeDancer
Sounds like you’ve got it well in hand. But still, it is going to be no fun when the wind howls through.
May you be safe and dry.
My only “other” dear friend in FL headed to NoLa this morning. She is in the middle of the path. She decided since tomorrow is their anniversary, she and her husband would celebrate in safety.
Geminid
@Belafon: A friend who worked in trust and estates once used “Nibblings” to refer to nephews and nieces in a trust he drew up.
Sister Golden Bear
@karen marie: I hear ya. The Bay Area is finally supposed to get a break after more than a week of triple digit weather. Obviously not the same as AZ but many of the older houses/apartments here, especially in SF, don’t have A/C.
Betty and other FL jackals please stay safe, whether you get out or stay put.
trollhattan
@Kelly: It’s painfully slow, enough to make one wonder what recovery means.
Here’s Paradise six* years after the Camp Fire (*depending on age of sat photo). Trump’s there somewhere, with his rake.
Kelly
@karen marie: If you move to Oregon you might as well aim for the coast. Oh wait the Otis fire, one of the 31 Labor Day 2020 came with 2 miles of the ocean.
opiejeanne
Fingers crossed for you Betty, and all of the other Florida jackals.
Phylllis
@lowtechcyclist: Here’s hoping it wipes the Church of Scientology in Clearwater off the map. Otherwise, may all be safe.
I grew up in Bradenton and Palmetto and when I was younger, it never would have occurred to us to evacuate. Likely because Anna Maria Island, Cortez, and Longboat Key were not developed to within an inch of their life at that time. They’re barrier islands for a reason.
PAM Dirac
Damn:
trollhattan
@Phylllis: A direct hit on $cientology East would make Xenu sad. Let’s make Xenu sad.
Sister Golden Bear
@Geminid: “Niblings” is on Miriam-Webster’s “Words We’re Watching” list for possible formal inclusion. Interestingly it was coined back in 1951 but remained obscure until the early 2000s, gained traction during the past decade. Contra Webster’s, I’m not sure that it was revived as much as independently reinvented by non-binary folks.
Matt McIrvin
@Geminid: “Niblings” makes me think of the use of that word to describe swarms of small nibbly creatures in the English translation of one of Tove Jansson’s Moomin books. (The Swedish-language original apparently used a term that literally means “rock hyrax”).
Anoniminous
Hurricane Milton is predicted to be a major hurricane when it hits the west coast of Florida and a regular old hurricane when it exits the east coast of Florida. Meaning: the entire middle of Florida is going to be pounded. See that big splotch of dark showing the path of Hurricane Helene? Going to see another all across the middle of Florida.
opiejeanne
@Scout211: Just watched the weather channel reporting on the current flooding in the Orlando area, just from lots of rain.
Redshift
@p.a.: Our governor (Youngkin) visited Helene-impacted areas of VA and responded to a climate change question by saying that blaming the intense storm and the future unpredictability of weather on climate change was a “distraction.” He then praised JD Vance’s visit and in the next breath decried people “politicizing” the disaster.
Such an asshole.
Soprano2
@Suzanne: I’m so sorry, I understand why they might not want to evacuate. It’s a dammed if you do, dammed if you don’t situation. I think I would still be able to do it with hubby, but Lewy Body is a different type of dementia with different symptoms. I’ll keep them in my thoughts, ugh.
Barbara
I think I would leave just to salvage my vehicles. I can’t imagine that there is any way I could make things better by staying. Hoping for the best for anyone who might be in its path.
Anoniminous
@PAM Dirac:
yeah
There’s enough potential energy for Milton to become the first US Cat 6 with winds over 200 mph. Will it?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Sure Lurkalot
What do you say in these situations…best of luck? Best of luck boarding up and fleeing your home? Best of luck that you’re out of the path more or less but who knows? It’s bad enough that some people are so obstinate that they won’t leave without thinking of those who can’t, because of money, lack of transportation, pets, disabilities…
So, stay safe it is, whatever is best for those of you affected.
Soprano2
@karen marie: We’re having weird-for-October weather here. We should be having highs in the 60’s/low 70’s, lows in the high 40’s/50’s. Instead, we’re having highs in the low 80’s and lows in the 60’s, and it hasn’t rained for two weeks with no relief in sight. I’m having to water at least twice a week at a time when you don’t usually have to water at all.
trollhattan
@Redshift: Was he wearing the vest? To be relatable?
Bill Arnold
(graph at link)
Suzanne
@Belafon: I also would like a way to differentiate between “my aunt and uncle” who are SuzMom’s siblings, and “my aunt and uncle” who are SuzMom’s brother and his wife.
opiejeanne
@opiejeanne: I’m wrong, they’re prepping for flooding.
Juju.
@Gvg: Who was president when Irma hit? As I recall it was Trump. Recent history tells us that it makes a huge difference who’s in charge when strong hurricanes hit. Republican presidents and governors do not have a good track record in that regard.
Chat Noir
Sending positive thoughts and vibes your way! My folks inherited my dad’s aunt’s house in New Port Richey decades ago but sold it shortly before the housing market imploded in 2006-2008. I can’t imagine what it’s like to be watching a Category 5 hurricane heading your way. Stay safe!!
trollhattan
@Anoniminous:
I recall NOAA having to add colors to their rainfall intensity mapping tool, to accommodate Hurricane Harvey. If we need to add category #s for hurricane rankings, then by god we’ve got a lot of numbers in reserve for the task.
Kelly
@trollhattan: Tree’s scorched in 2020 that looked like they would survive are still dying each summer. I’ll have a half dozen maples taken down soon. There’s enough room around them I can have a logger drop them instead of a tree service. He’ll do for a couple $100 instead of a tree service for several $1,000. Top quality firewood.
JoyceH
@Anoniminous: That’s what I’ve been wondering – once Milton reaches the Atlantic, then what? Out to sea or rampage up the coast? Is it too soon for the weather guys to predict?
Phylllis
@Barbara: Vehicles tend to be such an afterthought. So many people drop their comprehensive coverage once a car is paid off. And those folks are usually the ones least able to come up with the resources to replace a car quickly in the face of a situation like this.
Barbara
@Sure Lurkalot: I am sure there are people without cars, but most likely the problem with leaving lies disproportionately with the disabled and elderly. Evacuating a nursing facility or hospital is not an easy proposition and there are many in Florida. It’s daunting. I realize that I am very much a left brain kind of person, but think of it this way — being closer to or even in your house during the storm will not lessen the likelihood that it will sustain a hit or improve the odds of being able to rebuild more quickly.
I think back to the account I read of an IT start up employee who convinced his boss to get everyone in their company to leave the second tower after the first one was hit on 9/11. In his estimation, the “worst case scenario” of leaving if unneeded was 45 minutes of lost work time and canceled phone calls.
Please save yourself and if at all possible those who depend on you, even if you have to sleep in your car.
Suzanne
@Soprano2: It’s terrible for them. My uncle’s condition has been deteriorating pretty quickly and apparently he just zones out at home for hours. Closest cousin just went through a divorce, which was final last month.
I voted for all of them to GTFO of FL some time ago, but such is the allure of beach life, I guess.
Bill Arnold
Gulf waters are warm, well above historical normal. That drove/is driving the rapid intensification.
Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts
Chief Oshkosh
@TBone: Good messaging there by the sheriff. I got my mom out of the area when Irma hit. She had been hit hard by Charley, so we were pretty concerned with Irma. The fucking governor (was it Skeletor back then?) had delayed, delayed, delayed everything, so evacuation routes were absolute nightmares by the time people hit the road – no preparation whatsoever. Tons of people running out of gas. Entire families living at highway exits up I-75. Just shitty planning and execution by the state.
Being the asshole that I am, I kept reminding mom (and, FWIW, her cat riding on the back seat) that all of this was avoidable, but the REPUBLICAN governor had so thoroughly fucked up that we weren’t even going to make Atlanta after a whole day on the road.
By the time we did get into Atlanta for our first o/n stay, she was angry with the entire Republican Party. By the time I finally got her to my brother’s place, she was an avowed Democrat and has been ever since.
PAM Dirac
@JoyceH: The cone forecast at the moment shows it heading pretty much due east and passing near Bermuda Sat morning as a tropical storm, but Sat is pretty far away.
Anoniminous
@JoyceH:
Right now it’s predicted to move straight east.
trollhattan
Is this Obama’s Katrina?
Redshift
@Sister Golden Bear: Yeah, it may well have been. I really like it, probably more than my nibling does. 🙂
I’m a fan in general of gender-neutral words being coined where we only have (frequently unnecessarily) gendered ones in English.
Barbara
@Phylllis: I wonder how true that really is though. I don’t know, it’s not like I’ve done a study, but it seems like a lot of this kind of reasoning is simply a post hoc justification. If salvaging vehicles doesn’t appeal to you, how about not raising the odds of putting emergency personnel in danger while they try to save you from life threatening surge? We know from lots of other hurricanes that hundreds of people ask to be saved after refusing to leave.
I am really not judging, I just think it’s important to apply as much logic here as to any other important, possibly life altering decision. The hardest thing for me to accept is how little time people in North Carolina had to actually prepare. And chances are — or so I read — that mass exodus would have been impossible, if not even deadlier because of the nature of the exits.
trollhattan
Seems something, alright.
Suzanne
@Barbara:
Yeah, this is true. Evacuating is dangerous for a lot of medically fragile people. The question becomes what is less of a risk, staying or going. And that’s a difficult question to answer.
PAM Dirac
@Bill Arnold: I don’t think it is ever a good thing when the NHC uses words like “explosive” and “astonishing”.
Doug R
I know it can seem high enough, but maybe you should be looking at a motel on higher ground. Cat 5 can mean 12-16 foot storm surge.
Official forecast is 8-12 foot surge.
Freemark
@Anoniminous:
The experts believe it will. Small intense storms like this are fairly easily affected by outside weather forces like jet streams and dry air. But now they believe it will drop to cat 3/4 instead of cat 2/3. Let’s hope the jet stream is stronger and the air is dryer than they currently think it will be.
Anoniminous
@Bill Arnold:
And Milton’s cloud tops are measuring -80 deg C as of yesterday morning.
As I’ve been saying, lot’s of potential energy available.
Juju.
@Another Scott: The name list for hurricanes went from H to M really quickly.
JoyceH
@trollhattan: I’ll be interested to hear if Trump called and if DeSantis answered. Because if he did, that would be pretty darn political too.
Redshift
@trollhattan:
Heh. Appears not, from the pictures. Of course, that was a fleece vest, so it would be pretty hot for the current weather (though I wouldn’t have been surprised if he had a fake fleece vest for such an occasion.)
Nukular Biskits
@Juju.:
Well, remember in 2020 we had Hurricane/TS Zeta.
opiejeanne
@Kelly: I’ve been tracking the Line Fire just below Big Bear in the San Bernardino Mountains for a month, and it’s 87% contained for this moment, unless it flares up again. I have a friend who lives in Big Bear who has kept us posted on what it’s like where he is and there have been some really scary moments, reminiscent of the Old Fire in 2003 that destroyed more than 1000 homes and caused several deaths. There were people who refused to evacuate, and a couple of the deaths were older men who died of heart attacks
Most of those houses have not been rebuilt and one area to the east of Lake Arrowhead looks like the surface of the moon; the trees will never come back because the area is so dry now.
BellaPea
So I guess the Rethuglicans are still not going to abandon their view that climate change is a hoax from China? Idiots from Tump on down. Now the world is falling apart and they are worried about transgender people. I can’t even….
JoyceH
@Suzanne: I think with a lot of medical facilities complete evacuation isn’t really possible. How many ambulances do they have? Has anyone invented an ambulance-bus yet?
Lyrebird
@Starfish:
I think there are places where stilt houses are centuries-old tradition, just How It’s Done, but I can certainly understand your take!
Be safe, Betty C and fam!
Barbara
@Scout211: Probably too late, we also don’t have a Generac or whole house generator, but we have an inversion generator that works by plugging into our car battery. It’s enough to keep the refrigerator/freezer going, and any other essentials, like a cook top. You can fill your car with gas and use it for multiple days at least. We have had several multiple-day power outages over the last decade and it helps keep things a little more manageable.
Kosh III
Having survived the 2010 flood, I don’t wish ill on any person, I do wish these storms would destroy every since voting machine in The Villages and they would not be able to vote.
Starfish
@Quantum man:
Yes. It was Camille. But in fairness to them, I believe something was off with the tracking data, and they thought that it was not going to hit them, and it turned at the last minute.
From NOAA:
Rob
@Freemark: I’ve been seeing that Milton’s size is expected to grow prior to landfall.
Eolirin
@Redshift: Trotting out the gun violence playbook. It’s all they’ve got.
Rob
Apologies if this repeats somebody else: The National Hurricane Center in Miami now does 6 to 10 minute videos twice a day if a hurricane is projected to hit the mainland USA. The videos are normally streamed/made around 11:30 a.m. and 5:30 p.m. and can be viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/@nwsnhc/streams
Bill Arnold
@Anoniminous:
From Kim Wood (worth a follow), chart at link. The water warmth goes deep, . (Plus water vapor is latent heat, released in when phase transitioning to rain.)
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Juju.: Wasn’t there a year not too long ago when they got to the end of the alphabet and had to start over?
Yep, “not too long ago” if you’re of a certain age. Looks like there were 28 named storms in 2005.
The named list got to Wilma and then went to Greek letters: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta.
Anoniminous
@Freemark:
The latest from the NHC:
OK, NOT the latest. (see below)
Hurricane intensity prediction is a mug’s game.
“While track prediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) has improved steadily over the last three decades, there has been comparatively little advancement in intensity prediction due to the complicated physical mechanisms involved in internal TC dynamics and their interaction with upper ocean and atmospheric circulation.”
Milton could very well decrease as predicted. It could also increase. We won’t know which until we know what. :-)
TBone
@Belafon: I have a friend who lives near Kennett Square, PA and his nickname is ‘Tio (Name)’ because he is a good boss and hires many Hispanic speaking people who call him uncle as a matter of endearment even though he’s the boss.
Rob
@Anoniminous: Milton already is a Category 5 hurricane, as of two and a half hours ago
++++++++
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al14/al142024.update.10071558.shtml?
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Corrected for location/distances in the summary section
…MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).
++++++++
The central pressure has fallen to 911 mb (26.90 inches)
Anoniminous
@JoyceH:
The DoD has ambulance-buses. Also ambulance-planes.
opiejeanne
@JoyceH: The Bermuda Triangle.
Bill Arnold
This scary video is current, so off the coast of Mexico.
Juju.
@Nukular Biskits: I live in eastern NC. I pay attention to hurricane forecasts.
Juju.
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: 2020 got to Iota.
Suzanne
@JoyceH: So ambulances aren’t owned by the hospital, usually. They’re owned by private companies. But, no, there’s not enough ambulances to evacuate everyone simultaneously.
Hospitals and some long-term care facilities are designed to be “defended in place” with a compartment boundary that divides each floor. This works in a fire….. take everyone on one side of the floor, move them to the other side, and then close the doors in the boundary. Newer hospitals in flood-prone places — like the one I am designing in Florida — have no inpatient or procedural clinical care on the first level, nor emergency generators. So, in some cases, in a hospital, it would be safer to keep people inside.
Reading about the nurses who evacuated NICU babies in New Orleans is a harrowing thing.
Ironcity
@Suzanne: 20+ years ago I evacuated 2 elderly relatives from Deerfield Beach area by flying to.Orlando drivibg to Deerfield Beech grabbing them and maki g it back to Orlando that night. Official help was nonexistent. Local govt. Wasnt doing safety checks, 90yo people in 3rd floor apts no electricity or water can get food and water at local fire house. People help each other. Little gasoline, no traffic lights, but light traffic. By following day I had them in Virginia.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
@Rob: I mentioned at #114 that in 2005 NOAA ran out of the named list and went to Greek letters.
2005 was also the season that included another Category 5 storm, Katrina. Your numbers caused me to look up the stats.
Katrina’s minimum pressure was 902 mb. The central pressure at landfall was 920 mb. We have exceeded Katrina territory (low = bad)
Juju.
@Bill Arnold: when a hurricane has a small well developed eye, get out if it’s going to hit or come near where you live.
CliosFanBoy
Stay safe. Hope you’ll all be well.
trollhattan
Timely, from PhysOrg.
https://phys.org/news/2024-10-america-safe-climate-fueled-storms.html
jonas
@Redshift: Well, they’ve pretty much adopted the position that the ready availability of assault weapons has nothing to do with mass shootings involving assault weapons, so just shrugging off the impact of climate change in producing a hurricane that would never have formed in the Gulf like this in years past seems par for the course.
The Gulf of Mexico produces plenty of weather. It’s a pretty big body of water! Never before (afaik) has it ever produced two Cat 4-5 hurricanes in a row. This is insane and the politicians down there are acting like the Black Knight: “Your arm’s off!” “No it isn’t!”
TBone
@Rob: peak surge alerts map 😳
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152801.shtml?peakSurge#contents
Covers a lot of territory.
Rob
@Ceci n est pas mon nym: I remember 2005, sadly. And I’m aghast that we are in Katrina territory so quickly. Milton blew up in the past 24-27 hours. At 1 pm Central time yesterday it had just reached 80 mph and the pressure was 988 mb/29.18 inches. I bet that this is one of the fastest intensifications for tropical systems.
Rob
@TBone: Sure does, sadly.
Suzanne
@Ironcity: That’s a lot safer than a mass evacuation of a hospital. Good on you.
Shakti
My response to these events is stress eat candy and to take multiple baths. I am at freezing gin. Make it make sense.
I tried getting hotels but try dragging old people whose Nimby ism kicks in and who think driving across the state makes sense. And who clearly freaked the hell put when we drove once to a shelter. I got some lovely offers for reward points and offers of rooms in lower or equal zones across the bay.
I’m zone C in Pinellas.
Yes, I am an idiot.
Betty Cracker
Had to run out to obtain last-minute supplies, and omfg, it was bedlam! People are panicky for sure.
@Nukular Biskits: Our place is about 20 miles from the coast and 39 feet above sea level. I think if storm surge ever comes into play here, the whole state will be toast.
SomeRandomGuy
Just remember that hectoring tone is also going to people who can’t evacuate, due to lack of transportation, lack of shelter, etc., who might be stubborn, but are stubborn because they’ve had to ride out stuff like this before, when there was no way to evacuate.
People shat on Nagin when New Orleans was flooded, because there were school buses, that could have taken people out of New Orleans, see, and just dropped them by the side of the road in the path of Katrina. That he had one hurricane proof shelter (the stadium), and those very buses were used to drive people *to* the shelter, didn’t matter – these were *REPUBLICANS* trying to protect a *REPUBLICAN* so truth didn’t matter.
It still doesn’t. We’re now hoping that the ground game is good enough – and I don’t mean GOTV efforts! – because Johnson has already signaled a desire to harm hurricane victims to try to make Harris look bad.
rikyrah
Stay safe, Family BC and everyone in Florida.
Nukular Biskits
@Betty Cracker:
Like me, you’re an old pro at this stuff, I’m sure, so you’ll get no unsolicited advice from me.
Just keep us updated.
Scout211
@Suzanne: @Barbara:
This is a news report about the Orlando assisted living facility where my dad lived before he died. During hurricane Ian it flooded the entire first floor and all the residents were trapped. Emergency personnel had to remove all the residents with no power and many were not ambulatory. (This happened after my dad died).
After they were evacuated they had to be placed in other assisted living facilities scattered across many counties in the north part of the state and have lived there for the past two years, far away from their loved ones. The facility finally just reopened this year. I hope they evacuate sooner rather than later this time.
But it brings up the question, where will all the patients and residents go? And for how long?
JoyceH
Is this thread still alive? Just wanted to comment on this:
I will never ceased to be amused by the words that have totally different pronunciations in UK English and American English. (Like ‘vitamin’.) I recall during the first Gulf War there was a UK war correspondent reporting on the war for a UK audience. Apparently it’s Proper Usage that when you’re referring to the name of an American weapon, you give the words their American pronunciation – but the UK audience just cringed and moaned every time they heard this guy talking about Paytriot Miss’ls.
Juju.
@Betty Cracker: What about the wind?
lowtechcyclist
@ArchTeryx:
There are 23 million people living in Florida. You can’t realistically evacuate the whole state. Some parts of the state will be unaffected, and some parts will be only mildly affected with no need to evacuate.
Kent
@Nukular Biskits: It isn’t just storm surge that causes flooding. Helene dumped 2-3 FEET of water in some places in the for of rainfall which is how you have cities like Asheville at 2,000 ft elevation completely underwater. Being at 100 or 200 ft of elevation in Florida isn’t necessarily going to save anyone from flooding.
Geminid
@Starfish: Also, emergency warning systems were not so widespread in 1969. Virginia developed its warning system after Camille killed over 125 people in Nelson County.
Rose Judson
@JoyceH: I have had to completely change how I pronounce “basil” and “oregano” or risk being yelled at by the natives here.
I refuse to bow to their pronunciation of “pasta”, though.
Nukular Biskits
@Kent:
Oh, I agree. Flash flooding is a major concern, particularly given the amount of rain that is forecast.
And, from the looks of radar, a lot of the ground in South FL is probably nearing saturation.
SW
My grandparents retired from Chicago to Clearwater many years ago. They have passed now but it should be noted that many of the most vulnerable people down there have relatives scattered all over the country who are terrified for their loved ones and feel utterly helpless to do anything about it. This isn’t just a Florida thing.
Citizen_X
@TBone: Oh, great. So the danger area is…Florida.
hotshoe
@Bill Arnold:
I don’t understand what that means.
I went to Tomer Burg’s page via nitter — which is full of fascinating and scary graphs and photos — but it seems to be geared to folks who already understand atmospheric science, not folks who need explanations.
PaulWartenberg
Gotta work tomorrow morning at Bartow Library to prep the building for the hurricane, which means covering shelves with tarp and moving furniture away from windows and stuff like that. I don’t believe I can get away from the storm in time, so I’m planning on hunkering down and praying that the power gets back up quickly after Milton crosses.
Emptying out my fridge as much as possible before the storm hits.
To Betty and Adam and everyone else in Florida, if you’re staying put like me, good luck and stay safe.
PaulWartenberg
@prufrock: stay safe pru. hope your house in Pinellas survives as intact as possible (though I dread everything south of Ulmerton is gonna be flooded out).
catclub
Better to reign in hell than to serve in heaven. Recognize anybody?
PaulWartenberg
Do we have a Florida person tracker to keep up with who’s safe and who needs help?
tam1MI
I have relatives who live in Florida. Some are in Lakeland where Milton will hopefully weakened a bit when it blows through. But others are right on the Gulf, including a cousin who lives in an RV. I am worried.
catclub
@Betty Cracker: Katrina’s storm surge was 34 ft at its max. good luck!
patrick II
Further instructions at the link.
JoyceH
@Rose Judson: Or “the Mall”. In London their Mall rhymes with gal. Ours in DC is almost moll.
Kent
I have elderly extended family who live in coastal Sarasota. Ultra right MAGA retired missionaries in their late 80s.
They are on Facebook right now talking about “hunkering down” and prayer and the rest of the family is cheerleading them. No talk of evacuation.
We are so doomed.
Bill Arnold
@hotshoe:
Yeah, sorry. Atmospheric scientists at work are getting excited.
Basically, that chart is showing a very rapid drop in barometric pressure. At 4:00 PM CDT, the central pressure was said to be 905 mb (26.73 inches of mercury), which is scary low, and it dropped very quickly.
Rob
5 pm update from the National Hurricane Center. Milton has slightly stronger winds and even lower barometric pressure :-(
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI…125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI…1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…180 MPH…285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…905 MB…26.73 INCHES
gvg
@Kent: Well, yes, it probably will. Florida is mostly flat. if you are that high, there will be a gentle slope. down with plenty of room for water to spread out. We don’t have ups and downs to trap water like a bowl. Its the contours that make a lot of water more dangerous after a storm surge. Rain just spreads out pretty quickly. It’s just not like places with more hills and mountains.
CatFacts
As someone who has lived on the Gulf Coast, stay safe everybody.
Whether this storm weakens at landfall or not, it may well have that Category 5 surge. Hurricane Katrina officially weakened to a Category 3 at landfall. It still hit the Mississippi coast with a 27-foot surge.
Personally, I think anyone on that area of the Florida west coast who’s near the beach at an elevation less than about 20-25 feet should consider evacuating. The official surge height does not include the waves that will be on top of it, and the debris left over from Helene will unfortunately make an efficient battering ram.
Kent
@gvg: What is going to happen is that storm surge will push up rivers and canals and low lying areas and rain-based flooding will flow down in the opposite direction and there will be no place for it to go so it will just spread out and flood everywhere and take a lot time to dissipate. Obviously the higher ground you are on the better, but water is going to go a lot of places that people aren’t expecting.
Kent
@CatFacts: There is a domino effect of damage. The homes and structures along the actual shoreline will get demolished by the storm surge and waves and their debris will batter and destroy the next row of homes behind and that debris will destroy the homes behind them and so forth.
Another Scott
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records
Be careful out there, everyone.
Cheers,
Scott.
evodevo
@Suzanne: In some other languages, you can. English, however, isn’t one of them…
Eyeroller
@Quantum man: Probably a dead thread, but the “hurricane party” of Camille in Mississippi is an urban legend. The residents of the apartment complex who supposedly held the party had been boarding up windows and were exhausted. The story of the “party” seems to have come from a single survivor who wanted to embellish the story.
https://www.nola.com/news/weather/that-infamous-hurricane-camille-party-on-aug-17-1969-it-never-happened/article_acee3db1-ec9d-5fa6-bdc2-1ad983263903.html
PaulWartenberg
@Eyeroller: good lord, if you read to the end of the story, you get to the part where the destroyed apartment complex was replaced by a strip mall, which itself got destroyed by hurricane in 2005!
We are building up too much on our coastlines! God help us, we’re doing this to ourselves.
currawong
I couldn’t believe it when I got up this morning and saw that Milton had stregthened to a Cat 5 overnight.
Hoping everyone who can gets out of the way – I’ve seen enough videos in the last week or so of people who stayed asaying they never thought it would be this bad.
Thoughts obviously of Betty near Tampa and also Jennifer as Sanibel Island is also in the firing line.
Bill Arnold
@Another Scott:
Lily
Had good news from Asheville friends yesterday: they and cats are fine. Can’t drive b/c road turned into a fast stream that left ruts deeper/higher than car can clear. They already had a good community of bread makers & working performers so rec’d delivery of water and hot soup. No power/water for weeks ahead, all paying work is cancelled, but their instruments are safe, someone sent them a pie, and “it could be worse.”
Lily
Doug R
@Betty Cracker:
https://x.com/MichaelEMann/status/1843421628207902998
Doug R
@Doug R: …and 10-15 feet storm surge predicted in Tampa Bay.
greenergood
Haven’t read every comment – too late – need to get back to sleep – hope everyone stays as safe as possible – but hoping for a selective weather report predicting a thorough clean-out visit from Herr-icane Milton to Mar-a-Lardo … as long as M-a-L’s staff is spared somehow … (a girl can dream …)
Paul in KY
@frosty: In Miami area I think the highest elevation is at top of landfill.
Paul in KY
@Quantum man: When I was in Biloxi (circa 1982) they still had the concrete pad that a motel rested on (pipes sticking up, etc.) 16 or so killed when it was washed away.
Paul in KY
@Belafon: ‘Tios’ is technically uncles (male). ‘Tias’ would be Aunts.
Paul in KY
@Betty Cracker: Best wishes to you & your family and all other Juicers affected by Milton!