One housekeeping note. We made it safely to the hotel in Panama City Beach. We made the call to go this AM after seeing the overnight advisory updates and forecast. We were on the road by 1045 EDT and got to our hotel at 1900 CDT. Traffic was mostly okay. I’ve got the Mominator and the girls. All three did great on the ride. Right now mom is on her iPad and the girls are racked out. We’re all safe.
As my brother the marine biologist said: by the time the models firm up enough for real certainty of landfall – through Tampa Bay where it is currently forecast, north of the area, or south – it would’ve been too late to get out. If you’re anywhere within the cone of uncertainty that is an evacuation zone, this morning would’ve been a great time to get out. Tonight or tomorrow morning are the next best times!
The house is completely prepped. We’re inland by over 4 miles and the house is 11 feet above sea level. Now we wait, watch where this beast goes, and then see what the damage is.
I’m sure you can understand that I’m a bit wiped out. So I’m just going to run through the basics and rack out.
I’ll deal with the new reporting on Russia executing Ukrainian POWs tomorrow.
The Russians are continuing their genocidal attempts to break Kharkiv:
Russia has been trying to bomb Kharkiv for several hours already. There was a ballistic missiles threat in the evening, then glide bombs that struck the suburbs, but not the city, now it’s drones over our head.
It’s 3 in the morning, I’m just tired and want it to be over.— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 7, 2024
And Kherson:
#Kherson Unprecedented, even for Kherson.
🔴4 aerial guided bombs
🔴23 injured, including 2 children
🔴school and residential areas destroyed/damaged#Mariupol died quickly and horribly, as the world watched.#Kherson is being killed slowly and painfully, in silence.#Ukraine pic.twitter.com/BwPto38CyY— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 7, 2024
#Kherson #DroneAttacks (in addition to 4 aerial guided bombs)
2 teenagers attacked and injured by Russian drones
Banned anti-infantry mines dropped from drones downtown Kherson (photos below) pic.twitter.com/UVFjBbnCau
— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 7, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Will Try to Convince Our Partners at “Ramstein” of the Need for Significant Reinforcement of Our Capabilities – Address by the President
7 October 2024 – 19:35
Dear Ukrainians!
Today, I agreed on the schedule of negotiations for the week. These are meetings and negotiations with many partners. We will present the Victory Plan to everyone who can strengthen Ukraine – to every country that can really help bring peace closer. And, of course, once we fully understand all the positions of our partners and the real possibilities for Ukraine, and once we strengthen our Victory Plan, we will make our strategy for further actions public. It is important for the overall perspective to be clear to everyone in our country. We invite our partners to define how they envision the end of this war, Ukraine’s place in the global security architecture, and the joint steps that can steer this war toward a conclusion. By the end of the day, I expect a report from our team that is currently working in Washington, following the start of work on the military and military-political details of the Victory Plan. I also anticipate a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding the work at his level with partners. Today, there was an extensive briefing on the frontline – our actions and needs. The Donetsk directions remain particularly challenging, and we will try to convince our partners at the upcoming “Ramstein” meeting of the urgent need for significant reinforcement of our capabilities and positions right now, during these autumn months. Sufficient supplies for the front, sufficient equipment for our brigades and enough long-range capabilities for our forces – this will undoubtedly serve as the best deterrent for Russia and the strongest push to move the situation towards peace.
And one more thing.
Today there was a report by Oleksandr Kamyshin, and also a report by Minister Herman Smetanin. Weapons production in Ukraine – shells, artillery, and equipment. It wasn’t just about what we’ve already achieved or what we’re currently producing, but also about proposals for our partners: to invest in our Ukrainian production, primarily production of drones and electronic warfare systems. This is also part of our package for the upcoming “Ramstein” meeting.
We must keep getting stronger – every month, every week. I thank everyone who is helping, everyone working for the sake of Ukraine. Thank you to all who are fighting for our country!
Glory to Ukraine!
The Netherlands:
With the drone action plan, the Netherlands and Ukraine are working together to develop advanced drones and accelerate the production of successful prototypes.
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 7, 2024
We are grateful to our Dutch friends for their unwavering support! Together, we are stronger!@Defensie
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 7, 2024
… because saying no to Ukraine’s NATO membership bids at Putin’s demands worked very well and definitely prevented a Russian invasion of Ukraine and the biggest European war since WWII, don’t you think?
Let’s go on with this wonderful strategy and continue vetoing Ukraine’s…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 7, 2024
… because saying no to Ukraine’s NATO membership bids at Putin’s demands worked very well and definitely prevented a Russian invasion of Ukraine and the biggest European war since WWII, don’t you think?
Let’s go on with this wonderful strategy and continue vetoing Ukraine’s ascension to NATO in the future, as Slovakia’s Robert Fico says.
Keeping Ukraine “neutral” (i.e. militarily weak, out of NATO, and vulnerable to aggression), with Russia owing nothing to no one in this genius geopolitical concert, will definitely stop Putin — who is a man of his word and whose dictatorial regime is definitely not focused on erasing Ukraine as a nation.
It’s not that Putin did invade Ukraine and did not invade the Baltic nations because the latter were admitted to NATO 20 years ago, right?
Some Western analysts mistakenly assume Russia has already failed in Ukraine, believing Ukraine just needs to maintain its pace until Russia is exhausted. This ignores the risk of internal crises in Ukraine and Russia offsetting its demographic losses with occupied territories https://t.co/TuRafaaL1T
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 7, 2024
Here’s the full text of Mykhailo Podylak’s tweet:
A fundamental problem with the strange “peace plans”, “compromise options” and “de-escalation strategies” that are circulating in the global information field is not that they are completely contrary to Ukraine’s aspirations. They contradict the foundations of parity and security. They are categorically unrealizable because they contradict the basic logic. The logic in which it is obvious that the aggressor’s failure to win only encourages it to continue its expansion…
So for some reason we have to accept the absolutely illogical thesis that #NATO‘s shooting down of Russian missiles flying at Ukrainian cities can further fuel the war. Are you sure? Don’t you see any inconsistency at all? That it is possible to shoot at the Shahed, but not at their launch pads. What do you mean? Shoot down the arrows, and leave the archer alone, let him continue to enjoy himself. We are being asked to agree that pleasing the aggressor will take away his appetite. That leaving the state on the border with Europe in danger/state of frozen war is in #Europe‘s security interests, and that Ukraine’s consent to the loss of territories and millions of their inhabitants is in our Ukrainian interests. What logic can be used here?
But/but… It is customary to laugh at “flat-earthers” and “inventors of perpetual motion machines”. Do the engineers of illogical diplomatic constructions that definitely encourage the aggressor to raise the genocidal stakes deserve respect?
Rare footage of the work of Patriot air defense system in Ukraine. https://t.co/imSPnUhBjM
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 7, 2024
Here’s the full, machine translated text of the quoted tweet:
Two “Daggers” and 32 “Shahedis” shot down air defense forces over Ukraine today.
Dagger missiles with a route speed of more than 10,000 km/h can destroy, in particular, the MIM-104 Patriot, whose operation you see in the video 👇
Together with @NP_official_ua we collect 300 million hryvnias for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will help protect those who protect us 🫡
Support air defense 👉
Feodosiya, Russian occupied Ukraine:
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 7, 2024
In Feodosia, Crimea, the largest Marine Oil Terminal in the region, was attacked tonight. pic.twitter.com/gERV9F2u2O
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 7, 2024
Odesa:
Russia attacked a civilian vessel flying the Palau flag in the port of Odesa, resulting in at least one death and five injuries.
How long are we going to ignore the fact that they are simply terrorists?— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 7, 2024
A Russian ballistic missile struck a civilian ship in Odesa, Ukraine, for the second time this week, raising global food security concerns. The attack claimed the life of a local port employee and wounded five foreigners.https://t.co/ZpXLCIPu24
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) October 7, 2024
EuroMaidan Press has the details:
A civilian vessel flying the flag of Palau was hit by a Russian ballistic missile in the port of Odesa, southern Ukraine, resulting in one fatality and five injuries.
The vessel was located in the Black Sea corridor, established by Ukraine, after Russia withdrew from the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative in mid-2023. The corridor aims to ensure the export of essential goods, particularly agricultural products, amid ongoing military threats from Russia. Its purpose is to maintain global food supplies, especially important for countries dependent on Ukrainian exports, such as those in Africa and the Middle East.
The attack, which targeted port infrastructure, killed a 60-year-old Ukrainian employee of a private cargo handling company and injured five foreign citizens, according to Oleh Kiper, Governor of Odesa Oblast.
The vessel, identified as “OPTIMA,” had only entered the port for loading hours before the attack, as reported by Oleksii Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister for Restoration of Ukraine.
Kuleba stated that four injured crew members are in moderate condition, while one sustained minor injuries. All are currently receiving medical care.
The Deputy Prime Minister characterized these attacks as “a deliberate practice of intimidation and obstruction of the Ukrainian Maritime Corridor.”
This incident marks the second attack on a civilian ship in Odesa region ports within days.
Earlier, a Russian missile strike damaged a grain ship in Odesa. The ship, sailing under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis and carrying 6,000 tons of Ukrainian corn, was part of Ukraine’s Maritime Food Corridor, through which over 70 million tons of cargo have been exported in the past year.
More at the link.
Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia:
⚡️ A successful HUR operation has disabled the Russian Baltic Fleet minesweeper “Aleksandr Obukhov.”
The ship, based in Baltiysk, was set to go on combat duty but sustained damage after water entered the engine’s gas exhaust due to a “mysterious hole.”
Now undergoing major… pic.twitter.com/eModO6e4Md
— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) October 7, 2024
⚡️ A successful HUR operation has disabled the Russian Baltic Fleet minesweeper “Aleksandr Obukhov.”
The ship, based in Baltiysk, was set to go on combat duty but sustained damage after water entered the engine’s gas exhaust due to a “mysterious hole.”
Now undergoing major repairs, the damaged M-503 engine is a rare component, and fixing the ship’s key systems will be technically challenging and costly.
The “Obukhov” is the second Russian Baltic Fleet vessel incapacitated in the last six months, following the missile boat “Syrpukhov,” which was disabled in April 2024.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
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@patron__dsns :))) #песпатрон
Open thread!
Adam L Silverman
I’m racking out.
Everyone is welcome!
See you all on the flip!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
KatKapCC
Glad you are safe, Adam. Having these two topics collide in a post really drives home what a flipping mess this planet has become. (Has been for a long while now, yes.) And how helpless an individual who is 3,000 miles away from one and 6,000 miles from the other feels about it all.
Jay
Thank you, Adam, stay safe.
Harrison Wesley
Glad to hear you got settled in! Next few days are going to be interesting down here Bradenton way.
Sister Golden Bear
Glad you’re safe.
pieceofpeace
Hoping the least amount of disruption occurs for you, take good care, Adam.
wjca
Glad you guys got to safe(r) ground.
Joy in FL
I’m glad you’re safe Adam. When you come back, I hope you find your home as normal as possible.
I am interested in whatever you feel like sharing about your move out of Florida before the 2025 hurricane season. I am also interested in not being in Florida, but I don’t want to move from hurricanes to tornadoes or droughts or earthquakes.
wu ming
thank you for these nightly threads, adam, even as a cat 5 storm bears down on you.