The calm before the storm:
The little structure pictured above is across the river and around a tributary corner from us. I’ve always thought it looks like an ideal spot to read a book on a lazy afternoon.
We’re not too worried about Milton. The Cracker Compound is at the northern edge of the Cone of Doom, and the models seem to show the storm trending south of us. But we’re ready for whatever.
I am worried about friends and relatives around Tampa Bay. Y’all stay safe!
Open thread!
SiubhanDuinne
Stay safe, Betty! That photo is beautifully peaceful. I hope it can return to its state of serenity post-Milton.
MazeDancer
Liking that you on the edge of the COD. Won’t be any fun, but at least – knock wood – you will be safe.
Barbara
Please stay safe Betty, and everyone else in the projected or potentially projected path of Milton.
SiubhanDuinne
I know Adam bugged out yesterday. What about Kalikal? K, if you see this, please let us know what precautions you’re taking. Same with everyone in Milton’s path.
Old School
Is the little building something that is used as a watch the river or read a book spot? Or do they use it as something else?
Trollhattan
Is that a pair of eyes ov… Kidding. :-)
Yeah Floridians, leave your in-path sited places like, hours ago.
Our heatwave supposedly ends today, one good bit of weather news.
Raoul Paste
Riding the storm out. A lot of people here in the ether are wishing you well
Steve LaBonne
I hope you really are out of harm’s way. This is still looking like an unimaginable catastrophe.
Trollhattan
Tens upon tens will be watching this, believe me.
Feel the Garvmentum.
cope
Best of luck to you. I’m super stressed about my sister-in-law and her family in downtown Tampa. As of yesterday, they were “hunkering down” in her daughter’s home, also in downtown Tampa.
During our three decades living in Central Florida, every hurricane season brought out discussions about the vulnerability of Tampa and Tampa Bay. It looks like Milton will finally be “the one” that comes in on the right angle of attack to devastate the region.
A Ghost to Most
The latest track I saw shows the eye coming ashore at Ruskin, where my step-mother’s house is. She waited too long to sell it. At least she’s not there.
kindness
Nice! Very serene.
Geminid
@Trollhattan: In other Senate match-ups, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin will debate Mike Rodgers tonight, Ruben Gallego will debate Scary Kari Lake tmorrow in Arizona, while Maryland candidates Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks debate on Thursday.
Trollhattan
Look how big this sucker is from space.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cr753r34n3rt?post=asset%3A220a35ae-9753-466c-b2a4-119b24cb6553#post
Hungry Joe
Any place that’s Not Home can seem inhospitable … unlivable, even. I look at that placid, beautiful picture and, while part of me is appreciating it, another part is thinking, “Alligators! Mosquitoes! Hurricanes! How can people live like that???” … because we have no ‘gators or hurricanes, and few mosquitoes. And still I’m amazed when people ask me how we can possibly stand living near major earthquake faults. I say, “Earthquakes?” [shrug] “We’ve got a couple of earthquake supply kits, and squirreled-away water in several spots, so … whatever.”
eclare
I cannot imagine, I hope everyone has left!
Johnnybuck
Why can’t Biden order congress back into session? I thought that in a national emergency he had those powers?
zhena gogolia
@Hungry Joe: Yeah, earthquakes creep me out.
geg6
@Trollhattan:
Wow. Crazy. Terrifying.
Baud
Via reddit
Shame on anyone who gave this person a protest vote in 2016.
prostratedragon
That really looks lovely [gulp]. May it continue. Stay safe.
Trollhattan
@geg6:
I could swear the Gulf that spawned the storm is no longer big enough to contain it.
Sallycat
I’m in St. Petersburg. My house is 50 ft. above sea level. I am not worried about storm surge. However, the wind is a bit concerning. (This year, I got an estimate to have storm windows and doors installed in my house-$22,000. I could not afford this.) A friend and her adult son are coming over-they are at risk of flood. So we are going to hunker down and see what happens. Be seeing you.
Msb
God bless and protect you, and everyone who may be in Milton’s path..
scav
@Trollhattan: The problem with these big ones is they’re often just so gorgeous in the abstract. There were some satellite photos of Wilma . .
BR
Harris was really good on The View.
eclare
@Sallycat:
Oh Jesus. Please check in.
Betty Cracker
@Sallycat: Sending good thoughts. Check in when you can!
Baud
@BR:
Good to hear.
BlueGuitarist
@Geminid:
Steve Benen reports Mike Rogers doesn’t live at the Michigan address where he’s registered to vote – with reminders of some of the other out of state R candidates
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/key-gop-senate-candidate-faces-new-carpetbagger-accusations-rcna174318
Betty Cracker
@Old School: I’ve never seen a soul using it. There are no houses nearby.
Trollhattan
A tracking tool called WindAlert. Am sure there are many others.
https://windalert.com/en-us/Storms/storm.aspx?storm_id=al142024&utm=
Another Scott
@Johnnybuck: He can order them back.
And they can immediately vote to adjourn.
:-/
Seriously, he can’t make them do anything (separation of powers and all that) and there’s no sense in Biden spending political capital until the House is on-board with doing something. And if they’re on-board with doing something then they can call themselves back. Which they are unlikely to do in this election season.
(A House calendar I see says they are supposed to be back on Tuesday November 12.)
Presumably FEMA and everyone else can find a way to juggle the books until then.
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Doug R
Watch that storm surge-they’re predicting 10-15 foot storm surge near Tampa, up to 10 feet up to Yankeetown and down to Bonita Beach.
columbusqueen
@Betty Cracker: Everyone, please be safe!
Baud
Harris doesn’t mince words on Stern, via reddit.
cain
Calm before the storm indeed.
I have been hard at work organizing an online conference and it starts at 8pm PST today. Super nervous that everything works out ok.
Also, new version of Mastodon is out and so if you are on mastodon.social it will be easier to follow people. Next release will finally have quote toots which is what everyone has been wanting for a few years.
https://blog.joinmastodon.org/2024/10/mastodon-4.3/
wjca
Definitely feeling it. Down hill all the way.
Shalimar
I would be in the cone if Milton hit Milton, FL, which I think it definitely would if God had sent it. Instead, it is far away from Matt Gaetz’s district. What the fuck, God?
I am worried about family near Tampa.
Omnes Omnibus
My nephew just moved to Fort Myers a month ago. He had no issues with Helene. He is stocked up with supplies. Hopefully, this won’t be too bad for him.
Belafon
@Johnnybuck: What does it actually mean for a president to order them back in session? Does he send out federal troops if they don’t come in?
wjca
Is that legal in Michigan?
BR
@Baud:
I’m not the target demo — not sure who mostly watches the view, but I think it’s middle aged women? But that said, she was empathetic, wise, insightful, etc. while also getting her points across.
Scout211
Central Florida advisories from a local news station, by county:
I am watching Orange County, where my sister and BIL live in Orlando.
It’s now predicted to be Cat 2 in Orlando. 😬
cmorenc
That beautiful swamp you live in, Betty, has survived countless hurricanes over centuries. Many particular individual creatures for whom it was suitable home until one of those hurricanes flooded all the surrounding islands and peninsulas of dryland above normal swamp-water and blew down some of the trees, not so much, though others did who were able to flee to high-enough ground and sheltered-enough places. Hope there’s not a modern-day hurricane variety of Aesop’s Fables to be written about the lady of the swamp who admired nearby swampland houses as perfect places to read on calm days – and hence couldn’t bring herself to leave because she had unfounded faith the storm would miss her.
Baud
@BR:
I’m not the target demo for this either. I like dumb stunts.
zhena gogolia
@cmorenc: FFS
BlueGuitarist
@wjca:
not legal
cain
@Scout211: Cat 2.. in _Orlando_ jfc. I don’t remember at any time hurricanes getting to there.
That idiot governor declare a disaster yet?
ETA ok, maybe there has been, I just don’t remember
mrmoshpotato
@Baud: Good for her. To Hell with the murderous, orange shitstain.
Baud
I guess Woodword is coming out with a new book. Quotes at the link.
HumboldtBlue
Here’s hoping it all works out the best for our Floridians.
I got my ballot today. For the third straight election, I will take great joy in voting for anyone other than Donald fucking Trump.
Anoniminous
Hurricane Milton is back up to Cat 5
Latest from the National Hurricane Center
Omnes Omnibus
@zhena gogolia: Agreed.
Trollhattan
I’m all “You guys, bologna and Velveeta on Wonderbread, again?!?”
I like a little variety in my drooling Republican candidates.
The Audacity of Krope
Variety is akin to diversity and you know they think that means giving everything away to immigrants or something.
cmorenc
@Johnnybuck
Article II, section 3 of the US Contitution gives the President the following power:
…with the implication that he could call Congress back into session to consider supplementing the appropriation for federal disaster relief, if the already appropriated funds prove insufficient. Or for that matter, to divert the already-made apprropriation of funds to aid immigrants to instead be spent on federal natural-disaster relief. But Congress still has to approve any new funding or diversion of appropriated funding. True Biden has used flexible slippage in the language of some military appropriations bills to help fund Ukraine, but that probably doesn’t exist in the Immigration aid appropriations bill to divert it to natural disaster relief without further act of Congress.
bluefoot
Stay safe, all of you in FL! The people I know on the coast have evacuated inland, but even so the winds look…frightening. They’re all fairly sanguine which says something about their fortitude.
I don’t know what people do if they don’t have a way to evacuate (not able to drive, do not have another mode of transportation, etc). And even with that, there’s no good (or even bad) way to move the population of entire cities.
SatanicPanic
@HumboldtBlue: I’ll take joy in voting against Trump, but also in voting for Kamala Harris.
Rob
The pressure has fallen to 905 mb according to a 4:30 p.m. CT/5:30 p.m. Florida time update
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024
…AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON…
Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 165 mph (270 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT…2130 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 315 MI…510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 475 MI…770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…165 MPH…270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…905 MB…26.72 INCHES
eta: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/082130.shtml
NotMax
@Trollhattan
They’re the All-Bran in the variety pack.
;)
BR
@Baud:
Did you or anyone here watch Harris on Stern? I need to dig up a link.
Jackie
@BR:
She must have been; TCFG pitched a hissy fit saying how terrible she was!🤭
zhena gogolia
@Jackie: I thought the Biden appearance there was excellent (thanks, TBone!). I will seek this one out too.
cain
ChatGPT tells me that the strongest hurricane to hit Orlando was Hurricane Charley in 2004:
But this one is predicted to be a CAT 2. Yikes.
Bupalos
Your place is beautiful Ms. Cracker. I love that you love it.
jonas
@wjca: Has Garvey even bothered to campaign? It seems like once he won the primary, he just kind of disappeared.
TBone
@Anoniminous: it was noted today that all of the debris from Helene that is out on the streets can become projectile in those winds. Broken glass, plywood, etc.
Dorothy A. Winsor
My ballot has been received and will be counted, says the county clerk’s office.
Rob
@TBone: That is very scary.
Rob
Here’s the ~5:30 p.m. Eastern time video update from the director of the National Hurricane Center: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvl05XN10qA
Trollhattan
@NotMax:
Kids of a certain age shudder at the very thought.
Also applies to Shredded Wheat. the big ones before they learned to just shrink then frost the utter fuck out of them.
mrmoshpotato
Mmmmmmmm
TBone
@zhena gogolia: 💙 here you go, enjoy!
https://youtu.be/I53CmGtXqjo?si=vJcUTWD4XVvID4iB
(Full VP Harris episode of The View today.)
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Jackie: I think she’s playing the media like a harp. She got lots of attention for a few weeks when Biden dropped out, then with the convention, then with the debate. Then the opportunities for drawing a national audience kind of dry up. But if let the media stew about NO INTERVIEWS for a little while and then start doing a bunch, but THE WRONG ONES so the keep talking, it draws more attention to the interviews you’ve done because they’re talking about them.
Then you do 60 Minutes, which is pretty much the Pinnacle when it comes to television news media, along with a week long media blitz. It gets more attention because the prestige media has been talking about how you’re not doing that.
Eventually my guess is she’ll throw a bone to another couple prestige media outlets and those interviews will draw more attention because they’ve been talked about so long. She’s maximizing her publicly during the final stretch run by using the media controversy to draw attention during a time when she might have trouble breaking through.
Bupalos
@SatanicPanic: That I have to vote against Trump only disgusts me. But while Harris has to embrace an agenda that flatters an American electorate that is in many ways sick and addicted, as a person and leader she’s really inspiring. I’m excited about that. She’s brilliant, she’s tough, she’s human in the best ways. The beauty of her story is under appreciated.
zhena gogolia
@TBone: Thanks!
zhena gogolia
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?: I get the feeling she knows what she’s doing.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@zhena gogolia: Yup. And stay safe Betty Cracker! Hope your health is holding up OK. The world is a better place with you in it.
mrmoshpotato
@TBone:
@zhena gogolia:
@Jackie:
@BR: MVP will be on Colbert tonight too.
Matt McIrvin
@Dorothy A. Winsor: This afternoon the Massachusetts “Track My Ballot” site announced that my ballot had been received and accepted.
Anoniminous
@TBone:
Yeah, I know. One more hazard making the middle Gulf coast of Florida a deathtrap.
TBone
@mrmoshpotato: thank you for the reminder!
lowtechcyclist
@cain:
I was just reading that DisneyWorld isn’t closing until 1pm tomorrow. Seems a bit on the late side.
Baud
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
If she does the NYT, she’s dead to me. #NotReally
The Audacity of Krope
@Baud: Fuck the fucking New York Times.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Baud: I think she’ll spurn them. Maybe do WaPo or another news network interview. Kinda wonder if the big swing State dailies like e.g. The Philadelphia Inquirer or Detroit Free Press would be considered good enough by the NYT… it’s not like they’re the only city daily out there.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
NPR has more listeners than the NYT has readers. She should do a swing state daily paper and then NPR.
What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony: Could see her doing NPR.
Baud
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
NPR has supposedly been good on abortion.
CaseyL
Not sure how old this news is, but the storm-warning area in Florida now also encompasses Palm Beach County – which is on the state’s east coast, and is also where my Aunt lives. (I’ve texted her asking if she’s able to prepare, though there’s not much I can do to help if she can’t, since I’m 3000 miles away.)
PaulWartenberg
Bartow Library is prepped and the bookshelves covered up with tarp for whatever Milton brings to us.
I’m hunkering down in Mulberry. My brother in Tampa is hunkering down at his place – he has a generator – but he’s also hosting friends of his who live on Davis Island (!!! if you wanna Google Map it to see how fcked that spot is going to get if Milton hits the bay dead on). My parents live north of us, they are on the northern edge of the storm as well and I’m hoping the eye treks a little further south… preferably towards Mar-A-Lago so that orange SOB gets washed into the Atlantic.
Everyone, stay safe. I will see you on the other side of the storm, depending on the power.
wjca
See, that’s the upside of being in California. I can vote in the same primaries as everybody else for other offices. While registering as a Republican has let me vote against TCFG 5 times already; soon to be six, since our ballots arrived today.
BR
@What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us?:
Interesting and fresh take on this. I’m going to email it to Josh Marshall who wrote about this today and credit you.
wjca
I think I’ve seen a couple of text messages asking for money. But nothing besides that. Perhaps he’s grifting off the campaign funds, since he has no chance of winning anyway.
zhena gogolia
The person I had lunch with today also said that when she went to the post office, the clerk was totally puzzled that everyone was buying postcard stamps, and she had run out.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Heh.
Geminid
@wjca: I know Katie Porter’s fans were diapoointed she came in third in the primary, but it sure freed up a lot of Democratic money for other races.
Gvg
@cain: definitely. 2004 had 3. It was a year to remember. 4 total for the state. That was the year most of us learned to deal with them, including schools and businesses. Yes of course the Governor has declared and emergency ahead of time. Unlike most red states, it’s routine in Florida, and he’d be impeached by the other republicans if he didn’t because they would all lose elections. We know how this is supposed to go and aren’t putting up with any nonsense.
Betty Cracker
@PaulWartenberg: Stay safe, and check in when you can!
@Gvg: Truth!
Jackie
@Trollhattan:
All of my grandkiddos love the original Shredded Wheat big biscuits. They also like the mini versions; more for a handful of snacking.
lowtechcyclist
@CaseyL:
God’s finally getting his revenge for the Butterfly Ballot.
schrodingers_cat
@Baud: Kshama Sawant is a kook. There are too many of these leftier-than-thou Indian Americans running around spouting nonsense.
Mel
@Trollhattan: Grapenuts…