Everyone has gone home after homecoming, and I, for one, am relieved. I am peopled the fuck out. My house is a smoking ruins, I am exhausted, and I think I have fulfilled my socializing for at least the next few months.
I still have not had time to read all of the comments and everything from you all for the surprise Wedding Shower Tamara and you all threw for us, and thank all of you and I swear I will get to them. I haven’t even told Joelle yet that a bunch of weirdos on the internet sent us over 2 grand for a wedding in our 50’s. But thank you. Right now I need to get some work done because tomorrow morning we are heading to Ohio to take Joelle’s mom to a doctor’s appointment and then out to lunch. But I swear I will read them and get back to you.
Re; Politics- I did a quick survey of my social media and the headlines and it feels like a lot of the people I follow are freaking the fuck out and I can’t tell if they are just being neurotic as usual or if there was some raft of bad news. I’m too busy to think much about it right now, but it does feel like this was freakout weekend for a lot of Dems. Especially a lot of “black people and latinos” stuff.
I’ll holler at you tomorrow.
frosty
You sound just like Ms F. We had dinner with old friends (neighbors from the first house we bought, in 1985). She’s done with a social life for at the rest of the month.
zhena gogolia
My NYT had a big headline about how Black people are going to vote for Trump in droves. That might have something to do with it.
SpaceUnit
Our goddamn national media is going into full horserace mode right now. Polls show the race is a dead heat!!! I think that why people are freaking out. I’m just ignoring it. Fuckers.
MagdaInBlack
@zhena gogolia: Should I even ask why they believe this is so?
Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
Bunch of garbage polls were released late this week, the same thing happened in 2020 and 2016.
zhena gogolia
@MagdaInBlack: I didn’t read it. Threw it out.
MagdaInBlack
@Jay: Figured. TY.
Betty
Kamala had a great rally in North Carolina. Enthusiasm through the roof. Forget polls. She has this.
RevRick
@zhena gogolia: I can’t imagine black people are that suicidal. Over at the Great Orange Satan, Kos observes that the early voting numbers are looking good for us. It’s a sample of enthusiasm and intensity.
Right now the GOP is flooding the averages with their shit partisan polls, and despite that the overall numbers look steady.
Polls, after all, attempt to model the electorate so pollsters take their response sample and try to adjust accordingly. But it’s basically SWAG: scientific, wild ass guesses.
MagdaInBlack
Brisk and breezy fall evening in Chicago-land. I think the moon is practicing for Halloween, appearing and disappearing in the clouds.
I need a fireplace.
Leto
@zhena gogolia: on the SNL Weekend Update “news” segment, they spoke about a poll showing how black support for Dems has gone from 92% to 78%. Idk if that has something to do with it, or if it’s the usual bullshit that’s spouted, so… I’ve been elbow deep in reading all weekend so don’t really know as well.
JoeyJoeJoe
@Jay: exactly; there were even people noting, days ago, that a large number of polls from Republican firms were going to come out, and that, as is typical for them, those polls would look for republicans. One of the polls, from Pennsylvania, just flat out excluded anyone from Philadelphia, I recall reading
Baud
@RevRick:
They’ll be out best demo no matter what. It’s the white population that’s our biggest problem.
Nukular Biskits
Cole is getting married? There’s hope for all of us, then!🤣
In all seriousness, despite being a semi-part time participant here, I wasn’t entirely up to speed on all events Cole.
Congrats!
syphonblue
@zhena gogolia: which is fucking ridiculous. Trump got 8% in 2016 and 2020. Elections since, including midterms and specials don’t show any movement of the black vote either. To think there’s some earth shattering realignment in the last year where he’s suddenly gonna get 30% of the black vote is a joke and any poll that shows that should be immediately discarded as a farce. And yet, multiple polls have shown it and somehow still are included in the averages. If Trump gets above 10% I’ll eat a damn shoe. Realignments of that magnitude don’t happen overnight.
West of the Rockies
Bad news? Kornacki says Harris is down in some supposedly important category. Also, too, a WP columnist says BHO needs to stop shaming young black men about liking Trump.
Gloria DryGarden
Four directions Nevada fund raiser just needs $224, to be complete!
MagdaInBlack
@West of the Rockies: Somebody catch my eyes, they just rolled across the floor.
satby
I was offline all day yesterday so missed all that too.going to hop over and add my best wishes to the pile.
Baud
@West of the Rockies:
To be fair, there are a lot of other people who need shaming too.
caphilldcne
I went to see The Apprentice today. It’s great, Jeremy Strong will definitely get an Oscar nomination. Maybe win. It’s basically about Trump’s relationship with Roy Cohn. It could be a villain’s origin story. I actually felt sorry for Ivana. I did not feel sorry for Roy who frankly was Frankenstein creating the monster. Trump’s father was no prize and his brother got driven to drink and death by his expectations.
Elizabelle
@West of the Rockies: Yeah. And that fucker is also an MSNBC contributor.
Figures.
West of the Rockies
I’m also hearing about how Repub registrations are exploding. But why would that be? The excellent GOP GOTV efforts?// Their amazing// ground game? The billions more dollars they’ve raised as compared to Harris?//
caphilldcne
@West of the Rockies: it’s part of their game to raise expectations of a win and then when they lose they claim election fraud. This is the playbook.
KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager))
I think people are freaking tf out because pollsters are doing what they did in 2022 – throwing up a bunch of Republican polls to make it seem like OOGA BOOGA! Republican Red Wave! Trump Gonna Crush!
I’m not worried. Just going to keep my head down and do what I can to keep that from happening. I think you’re doing that too.
zhena gogolia
@caphilldcne: This is my best guess.
Jay
@caphilldcne:
It’s also to try to demoralize and reduce Democratic turnout,
It’s DOOM, DOOM DOOM,……..
TS
@West of the Rockies:
More likely that the voter suppression in too many states is stopping democratic nominations.
The outcry from trump if democrats win is going to be something to see. Hope all the lawyers have it together because we know who the SCOTUS will support.
West of the Rockies
@caphilldcne:
Christ, I want this election to be over so the era of MAGA collapse and rot can begin.
syphonblue
Polls have also consistently been way underestimating the Democratic vote since Dobbs. Remember the abortion amendment was supposed to either barely eek out a win or lose in Kansas and it won by a landslide.
NotMax
@caphilldcne
Buddy movie from the dank depths of the mirror universe.
//
dlwchico
Somebody posted a clip from the recent movie ‘Civil War’ on bluesky and I watched it and it looks pretty intense and I sort of want to watch it but not until after this damn election is over.
Baud
If we do win, especially if it’s a solid win, I really hope people don’t forget how the media behaved.
Elizabelle
Umm. LA Times:
Man arrested near Trump rally in Coachella with shotgun, handgun, authorities say
Sheriff describes him as a “lunatic.” And armed. And they released him on bail.
Maybe the Secret Service and/or FBI have picked him up by now.
Mousebumples
@KayInMD (formerly Kay (not the front-pager)): I’m with you.
Whether the doom posting is right or wrong, there are limits to what I can control. I’m doing my Postcards to GOTV vs being an anxious mess.
Check out Mobilize.us if you need something to do. Lots of options!
WaterGirl also has 2024 Activism in the hamburger menu, which includes a bunch of postcarding options.
Congrats, again, John. And thanks for creating this wonderful place on the internet.
different-church-lady
Once Nate Silver figured out that taking an average of earnest polling would lead to a better prediction than any individual poll, it was inevitable that eventually disingenuous outfits would start gaming that method.
mrmoshpotato
@MagdaInBlack:
It’s that cold in the burbs? 😁
Elizabelle
@Baud: I think we need to say “when we do win.”
Obviously, nobody is complacent, and the Electoral College is wicked. But Kamala and Walz are connecting with the electorate. And Dobbs.
The corporate media does fucking suck.
Baud
@Elizabelle:
Either way. I’m optimistic, but not foolish.
MagdaInBlack
@mrmoshpotato: Need = wish I had ’cause its a perfect night for it. 😊
Mousebumples
@different-church-lady: also, 2016 PTSD is strong among Dems. Myself included!
catclub
If they can do that for an old white man and a white woman, they probably will not shift very far with a black woman atop the ticket.
Jay
@MagdaInBlack:
There is nothing like a wood fire,…………
Jackie
@West of the Rockies:
That was supposed to happen after Biden won in ‘20. And, again Jan 20, ‘21.
What makes you think TCFG and MAGA disappear once Harris wins?
Baud
@Jackie:
Trump isn’t immortal.
pabadger
Mrs badger and I just finished 25 postcards. We have done or organized people to do somewhere around 700-750 postcards through Postcards to Swing States and Activate America.
She is also canvassing while I am texting and we are both cooking for the staff and getting others to cook as well.
As for the freak out, whatever. I participate as well but ultimately I think it is close, we are in a better position, we can win, and we all just need to do something about to help.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: Are you sure?
Jackie
@Baud: Don’t tell QAnon!!! Or the idiotic RW evangelicals!
Gretchen
Bob Cesca thinks Dobbs will swing it 5 points in our direction. I saw a report from a Kansas City OB who prescribed mifepristone for a miscarriage and got a fax from Walgreens saying they couldn’t fill it on the Missouri side of the state line and the patient would have to go to a store in Kansas.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
I guarantee it.
MagdaInBlack
@Jay: When my parents stopped camping wherever the road ended, they bought a little cabin on a lake in northern Ontario. It had a Franklin type wood stove in the living room, but he put a little wood stove in the kitchen. My memories of chilly mornings there are of waking to the sound of the stove door creaking open…..and then the cabin warming up. And then bacon! frying. Slab, cut thick.
Elizabelle
After the election, we need to get these (armed) weirdos back under rocks. And do something about the rampant “misinformation.”
WaPost:
Hurricane recovery officials in N.C. relocated amid report of ‘armed militia,’ email shows
The actions underscore growing concerns about safety and security of federal emergency personnel in western North Carolina amid a raft of misinformation.
Elizabelle
@pabadger: Applause to you and Mrs badger.
Ruckus
@RevRick:
And sometimes it’s partisan politics….
ArchTeryx
@Baud: Too many did after 2016, except us dirty liberals. Maybe this time, it’ll stick to them more. The victors often get to write history. I hope that’s us. I really do.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Elizabelle:
First, it was the federal government wasn’t helping them, now they don’t want their help. Make up your minds, idiots
West of the Rockies
@Jackie:
I think Trump is manifestly decaying in real time. If he’s alive in 2028, his cognitive collapse should be resounding. Also, I just don’t see another Trumpian figure who can inspire such insane devotion.
mrmoshpotato
@Elizabelle:
We repeatedly beat the cult trash in elections. Not sure about the pile of shit media that “both sides!” everything.
Elizabelle
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I know that area of North Carolina. It’s allegedly still full of moonshiners.
The disinformation is demoralizing, though. I heard from a friend (with relatives in eastern NC) that the $750 from FEMA is a loan and the IRS will be going after people, hammer and claw, to get it back. I told her I didn’t think the IRS was staffed adequately to do that, and that if it was a loan, Biden would likely forgive it.
Meanwhile thinking “this is ridiculous.”
TS
@West of the Rockies:
ArchTeryx
And now for something completely different!
Those 2 of you that possibly read my missive on fandom, art, and politics had a conclusion that, if it had ended any other way, probably would have been funny.
It was all my fault.
The old friend who told me my theme was appropriate for Nicnak the artist.. I asked him more details about what he saw. Then checked her Terms of Service (which often include will/won’t draw lists). Turns out what my friend saw was a very specific type of picture related to my theme that was on her will-draw list. The general theme was on her won’t-draw list. Basically, he found the exception to the rule – an exception out there in black and white for everyone to see.
Boy did I oops. I normally don’t screw up like that, but I really got egg on my face this time and deserved it. Maybe I’m starting to mentally decline, too.
We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
Mousebumples
I’ve been told Politico has some leaked GOP Senate Leadership Internals. I won’t link them here, but if they are “Best Case Scenario” (for them), they’re not doing great. Lots more states that they’re asking for $$ and donations for – including Texas and Nebraska!
ArchTeryx
@TS: They don’t. But their editors sometimes will skim them, or keyword search them, to gauge public reaction to their column. Hopefully the thunderous denunciation to crapping all over Obama got through to someone.
K-Mo
@different-church-lady: sound right to me.
Timill
@West of the Rockies: They don’t need (or even want) another Messiah – all they need is a First Prophet, like Paul.
K-Mo
My $.02:
It’s perfectly normal to freak out. The stakes are enormous and we don’t know for sure what will happen. In my household we love this country warts and all and we are worried for its safety.
Still, my gut is telling me what it’s telling @Betty: at #8: She got this.
lowtechcyclist
@Elizabelle:
If there actually were trucks of armed militia claiming to be hunting FEMA, they need to be rounded up and held without bail until the recovery activities in that area carried out by government are complete, and the insurance companies and contractors have taken over from there.
Ruckus
@syphonblue:
Especially after shitforbrains has seemingly gone off the deep end. Anyone that pays any attention knows that he was never all that and that between him aging out and going insane with his own view of himself, reality of his actual humanity being so, what’s that word(s) – ignorant, deluded, around the bend, head up his exit port, aged out, way beyond useless, dumb ass, racist ass, ass.
If I keep going I’m going to run out of room…..
This is a person that should never, ever been within a bazillion miles of public office of any level, at any age.
Elizabelle
@lowtechcyclist: The last paragraphs of the WaPost story.
Like the police don’t have something better to do than circle the parking lot to protect FEMA against the radicalized rightwingers.
And “the resident” got away with doing that?
This shit has got to stop.
ArchTeryx
@K-Mo: A lot of its inhabitants, like me, are also worried for our safety. Trump gets re-elected, me and mine are going to be in for a universe of hurt.
Jeffro
in so many ways, for so many people in this country and for the world, the stakes are as absolutely as high as it gets
caphilldcne
@zhena gogolia: exactly. I just hit ignore and move on!
mrmoshpotato
@Ruckus: The orange shitstain should’ve been in a mental institution decades ago.
caphilldcne
@Jay: Exactly. Do not get stuck on manipulated polls!
caphilldcne
@West of the Rockies: 3.5 more weeks. We can do this.
Jay
@Elizabelle:
FreezePeach Free Guns,
“They are not going to stop” even if people get killed.
West of the Rockies
@TS:
Yeah, the comments do not suggest the column was well received.
caphilldcne
@NotMax: Jeremy strong’s blank affect and eyes is stunning. Scary as hell. There’s a bunch of promos for werewolf type movies out now (Halloween) and none of them are as scary as Roy Cohn. I’m a gay man who has worked to end HIV and no one deserves what happened but he was a terrible person who betrayed his gay brothers only to be caught up in the maelstrom.
Chet Murthy
Lots of us are scared. I saw this at The Great Orange Satan: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/13/2276636/-I-just-want-to-stop-worrying?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web
“I just want to stop worrying”
And I can only agree completely with it. It’s omnipresent, basically taken over my thoughts all the time. Sigh. Today though I was thinking of this: in 1932 the Communists and Socialists were fighting among themselves. The Communists said “nach Hitler, uns” (“after Hitler, us”). Lots of fragmentation and infighting. It’s not like that today: VP Harris has gathered together everybody who’s anti-TCFG into a single coalition. If we lose, it won’t be for lack of trying, and we’ll know something about our countrymen that we won’t like, but it’ll be the truth. And in that, we’re unlike Weimar Germany in 1932.
I kinda suspect we’re gonna win, but I sure don’t have a lot of confidence in that. But if I thought we were gonna lose for sure, I’d be acting differently. I think it’s slightly likely we win.
Andrya
@Chet Murthy: There is no doubt whatsoever that VP Harris will win a large majority of the popular vote. If TCFG wins the presidency, it’s because he won the electoral college while losing the popular vote. In which case, the Constitution truly is a suicide pact.
Trivia Man
@JoeyJoeJoe: I believe it included Philly – just filtered them out for the Likely Voter section. Apparently “we assume 0% of people in Philadelphia are going to vote” is what asses for “shrewd political insight”.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Just so. In a way this is a test. We have already learned that there’s something very wrong with our society.
I’m an optimist. After we win we need to think carefully about what’s wrong.
citizen dave
@Chet Murthy: I’m the same as far as this question of whether we elect a Fascist Dictator or an extremely competent (potentially top 5 President) President dominating my waking thoughts. A few days ago realized that if the unthinkable happens, the fight will just shift. And could be quite ugly. This country cannot have another orange man term of chaos.
But, I don’t think that will happen. Harris should get more votes than Biden 2020; and orange man should get much less. (2020 was 51.3% to 46.8%)
FDRLincoln
I was having election anxiety this afternoon, so I sent KH more money. My family situation prevents me from having time to volunteer, but I have been making monthly donations plus occasional “anxiety attack” donations in between. It helps a bit.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Leto:
That poll is bonkers. We all know Kamala is getting about 95% of the black woman vote, which means – to get to 78% overall for black people – Trump would have to get more than 40% of the black male vote.
Does anyone really think that’s gonna happen?
Kelly
@Elizabelle: I would really, really like it if the media quit calling armed gangs militia.
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Kelly: yes that would be nice.
FDRLincoln
I have a disabled son and emigrating if Trump wins is not possible. No country would take us.
So whatever happens, we’re staying. But having children and-or disabled people you are responsible for cuts off some avenues of potential resistance if the worst happens. I have no illusions about that.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
It’s called Fox News. Or Conservative Media, if you want to widen the aperture a bit.
Feed enough people enough racist lies, and enough bullshit conservervative/right-wing propaganda, for enough time, and you’ll end up with enough internal division and hate for a society to self-destruct.
Ksmiami
@Ruckus: complete institutional failure that this low evil man ever became President. We will not survive a second term.
Jackie
@Mr. Bemused Senior: I’m with you; what is wrong in this country so that nearly HALF of Americans support what TCFG and MAGA represent???
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Lacuna Synecdoche: yes that is a big part of it but why is Fox News a profitable business? Sure there are some easy answers (greed, a sucker born every minute, nobody went broke underestimating the taste of the American people, on and on).
I think we haven’t gotten to the root cause. Sure, bigotry and misogyny play a big part too. Still I think there’s more.
Melancholy Jaques
@Lacuna Synecdoche:
No, but going on cable and shouting “Harris is losing black men!” can move squishy white voters into the Trump column.
Another Scott
@RevRick: +1
(repost) – Nate Cohn at FTFNYT in October 2022:
Even when pollsters are trying to do a good job, they’re modeling an ever-changing electorate based on samples that are highly non-representative (if 99.6% don’t answer, then the 0.4% that do obviously are outliers in some respect). And there are too many incentives for bad actors to publish junk polls now, along with the people spreading junk conspiracies.
Ignore the polls. Ignore the junk conspiracies.
Burn the lifeboats.
Leave it all on the field.
Etc.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Chet Murthy
@Mr. Bemused Senior: @Lacuna Synecdoche: Oh c’mon, I think we know why. It’s white supremacy and the patriarchy that goes along with it. We were all fooled into thinking that it was going away; instead, it just became impolite to bring it up, is all. And since RaYgUn the Republicans used these somewhat-buried-but-still-very-much-alive grievances to cling to power as their actual policy agenda became more and more unpopular. Until one day TCFG came along and dug up those grievances and hoisted them up on flagpoles, let ’em fly high.
Sure, Fox News helped. But Fox isn’t going to work on somebody who isn’t already predisposed.
Melancholy Jaques
The publicly reported polls do not give us any information we can use to guide our behavior. No good will come from fretting over reports about polls.
The good news is that there are already enough eligible registered voters who are committed or inclined to vote for Harris. All we need to do is make sure they vote.
Postcards, calls, door to door if you can handle it. At the very least, go through your contact lists, skip the Trumpsters, talk to those you know are with us and give them a friendly nudge to make sure they vote.
Jackie
I’m watching Anderson Cooper’s The Whole Story. Tonight’s episode is Why Springfield? It’s gut wrenching, and at the same time SO infuriating. Why Vance and TCFG… well, never mind; we KNOW WHY.
hitchhiker
@Chet Murthy:
So far I’ve been successful at letting most of it slide past. I think she’s going to win, based on Dobbs and the record of special elections since SCOTUS screwed us.
Add to that, we have positive AND negative intensity this time, as opposed to 2020 when it was mostly negative. The issue with polls is that they can’t predict who is going to vote … if it turns out that somehow there’s another couple of points of Americans who have been so addled by this crap hose of “news,” well, Jed, I don’t even want to know it.
My go-to method of tuning it out is reading history. Current obsession is England/Scotland/Ireland between 1640 and 1660. Now that was a shitshow.
sab
@Jackie: But those people are Vance’s constituents. Vamce is rheir Senator. I am an Ohioan and a Democrat, and I know Rob Portman wouldn’t have done what Vance is doing however much Trump needs it done.
Joelle
Wait they’re giving us monetary gifts on top of the stories???? Because I was happy when I knew the I was getting the stories. Oh my goodness I’m so touched and thankful and I feel like Shirley Temple when she wakes up in the Little Princess and is covered in furs and has warm breakfast after dreaming she was a princess.
Soprano2
I think the speculation about more black men voting for TCFG is a combination of thinking misogyny could be more powerful than fear of TCFG (only wimps would vote for a woman), that black men are not happy that the Democratic Party is responsive to LBGTQ issues, and that black men feel their issues are ignored by Democrats. I heard a reporter on Morning Edition interviewing some young black men; one of them was worried that if Harris is president she won’t be able to stand up to male leaders like Putin and Xi. I think that’s ridiculous, but I believe some of these men do think things like this.
Jackie
@sab: Vance doing this to his own constituents is why it’s so infuriating to me; Ohio will still vote for TCFG and Vance.
TooManyJens
“So I’m going to vote for the guy who thinks Putin’s his best friend and loves Kim Jong Un.”
Jesus tapdancing Christ.
frosty
@hitchhiker: I like reading history but lately it’s Adam McGinty’s Sean Duffy novels, set in Northern Ireland during the Troubles. Now, THERE’s a shitshow.
I like how every single time Duffy gets into his car the author throws in a line about him checking for mercury tilt switch bombs under the car. You’d think once would be enough, but repeating it every time brings it home.
wjca
Perhaps, like Paul, he will take them in a new direction entirely antithetical to their messiah.
Ramalama
@frosty: Adrian McKinty writes the Sean Duffy series. He’s one of my favorite writers. Also the man who reads them on Audible is stellar. For a time the only way I could get my hands on one of his novels was via audible. His books didn’t sell in ‘Merica.
Chris Johnson
Yo, seriously there’s a purpose to this sort of thing. It is intentional manufacturing consent for an intended insurrection by a much smaller armed uprising in order to be able to claim ‘see? That’s what you get when you cross the giant army of trumpians we kept on claiming was there’.
It’s surrender bait, nothing more. If they could literally bomb us themselves they would, but how many divisions does the FYFNYT have? And so they do this, because they need Trump’s terrorists to go out and actually kill some people in order to be able to proclaim it was representative of the giant army that is totally out there and behind every door so don’t fucking put up a fight or argue srsly guys.
This is on purpose and meant to back up a terrorist threat by manufacturing legitimacy. If it seems weird it’s because it’s supporting terrorist threats to try and claim legitimacy for them. OF COURSE they claim without evidence that more than 50% of the (REAL) country is mad as hell in red hats and absolutely support the dictator in all things. What did you think they were going to say, the truth?
E.
@Ramalama: Thanks for mentioning the reader. I sometimes wish for a thread on our favorite audible readers. The performance is as important as the book for me. They have to both work.
Princess
@Joelle: Oh man, I love that movie.
Um, maybe my nym gives that away.
Ramalama
@E.: agreed! Note that there’s one reader named Gerard something for… Adrian’s Irish novels. When Adrian got picked up by an American agent and publisher and wrote books based in America a different reader got the job. No Bueno. I’m not a fan of his Bestseller The Chain, but I’m glad he’s finally making it big. Totally deserves it for the many stellar other novels. Anyway make sure Gerard is doing the reading.
la caterina
@Joelle: You ARE a princess!
artem1s
Please do. I especially want to see the reactions of the PA voters when he tells them to fuck themselves like he did his Xhitter advertisers. Maybe he should threaten to sue them if they don’t vote for his preferred candidate. Christ was an asshole.
brantl
@West of the Rockies: They’ll be happy to scoop up someone else with the personality of a petrified cowchip, and as much mean as you can pack into it, and they’ll worship whatever that is the same way.
Paging Ron de ShitStick, paging Ron de ShitStick!
brantl
@Lacuna Synecdoche: Women. constitute more than 50% of the population. Even so, it’s like 50.5% to 49.5%. So to drop to 78%, you would have to lose roughly double the percentage of the men to result in the resultant combined percentage. So the 5% of women gives approx. 2.5%, dropping the amount of black women that won’t vote against Stumpy, you have to get from 89.5 to 78 with one half the population, so twice as many black males or slightly more to make 11.5 %, so that would be 23% (or slightly more) of black males; are you telling me that 23% of ANY ethnic population can’t be as dumb as a red brick? I doubt your sincerity (obscure sci-fi reference).
brantl
@TooManyJens: exfuckingxactly.
Mike H
@Baud: Trumpism will be around for a while after him, which sucks.
Mike H
The black and Latino people stuff… I’m amazed by how much media and politics are engineered to screech that it’s never white people’s fault.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@brantl: Let’s simplify this first. Then I’ll post the detailed explanation.
Alice has 5300 pebbles, Bob has 4700 pebbles.
Combover Caligula wants 2200 pebbles. CC doesn’t care where they come from, as long as he doesn’t have to pay for them.
Q1: If Alice gives Combover Caligula 265 of her pebbles (which is 5% of her pebbles), how many pebbles does Bob have to give CC?
A1: 2200 – 265 = 1935 pebbles.
Q2: What percentage of Bob’s pebbles is that?
A2: 1935/4700 = 41.17%
________________________
Now, here’s the detailed explanation. You, @brantl, say :
A while back someone asked if I know German. I said, “Well, I know a few phrases, but I’m told I pronounce all the vowels and consonants wrong.”
I don’t doubt your sincerity. I just think you’re pronouncing some of the vowels and consonants wrong.
First, you’re using the wrong numbers. Yes, Women are about 50.5%-51% of the population. But they vote more – Women were 52% of the vote in 2020, and Black Women were 53% of the Black Vote (Alice’s 5300 pebbles). And 92% of Black Women voted for Biden in 2020. Given those numbers, I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that Harris will get about 95% of the Black Women vote in 2024.
So, let’s say 5% of Black Women vote for Trump in 2024. That’s .05 x 53, or 2.65% of the total Black vote for Trump coming from Women in that scenario. (Alice gives CC 265 pebbles.)
The poll suggests Trump gets 22% of the total Black vote. (CC wants 2200 pebbles) Minus 2.65% from Women, leaves 19.35% that has to come from Men. (Bob gives CC 1935 pebbles)
Now, Men are only 47 % of the total Black vote. Divide that 19.35% (the pebbles Bob gave CC) by the 47% of the Black vote that comes from Black Men (the pebbles Bob started with), and you get 41.17% of the male Black vote (Bob’s pebbles) needed to give Trump 22% (CC’s pebbles) of the total Black vote.
Obviously, none of these numbers are really accurate down to decimal points. Let’s just call it over 40%.
Lacuna Synecdoche
@brantl:
Let’s simplify this. Then I’ll add a detailed explanation.
Alice has 5300 pebbles, Bob has 4700 pebbles.
Combover Caligula wants 2200 pebbles. CC doesn’t care where they come from, as long as he doesn’t have to pay for them.
Q1: If Alice gives Combover Caligula 265 of her pebbles, how many pebbles does Bob have to give CC?
A1: 2200 – 265 = 1935 pebbles.
Q2: What percentage of Bob’s pebbles is that?
A2: 1935/4700 = 41.17%
_____
Now the detailed explanation. @brantl, you wrote:
A few decades ago, someone asked if I know German. I said, “I know a few phrases, but I’m told I pronounce all the vowels and consonants wrong.”
I don’t doubt your sincerity. I just think you’re pronouncing some of the vowels and consonants wrong.
FYI, 100 pebbles = 1%, in this way-over-extended metaphor
Yes, women are about 50.5%-51% of the population. But they vote more – women were 52% of the vote in 2020, and Black women were 53% (Alice’s pebbles) of the Black vote. And 92% of Black women voted for Biden in 2020. Given those numbers, I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that Harris will get about 95% of the votes of Black women in 2024.
So, let’s say 5% of Black Women vote for Trump in 2024. That’s .05 x 53, or 2.65% of the total Black vote for Trump coming from Women (the 265 pebbles Alice gives to CC).
The poll suggests Trump gets 22% of the total Black vote (the 2200 pebbles CC wants) Minus 2.65% from Women (Alice’s pebbles), leaves 19.35% that has to come from Men (the pebbles Bob gives to CC).
Now, Men are only 47 % of the total Black vote. Divide that 19.35% (the pebbles Bob gave CC) by the 47% of the Black vote that comes from Black Men (the 4700 pebbles Bob had at start), and you get 41.17% of the male Black vote needed to give Trump 22% (CC’s 2200 pebbles) of the total Black vote.
Obviously, none of these numbers are accurate down to decimal points. Let’s just call it over 40%.