We’ve got less than a month to make sure we get every eligible voter to the polls. Here’s a good place to start: https://t.co/l7B0fUIDbq
A big group of us are phone banking tomorrow, Monday Oct. 14th, trying to make 1,000,000 calls in one afternoon. Join me! We need boots on… pic.twitter.com/VEA2YMOHG7
— Misha Collins (@mishacollins) October 13, 2024
Kamala Harris: He refuses to release his medical records. He is unwilling to do a 60 Minutes interview. He is unwilling to meet for a second debate. Why does his staff want him to hide away? Are they afraid that people will see he is too weak and unstable to lead America? pic.twitter.com/bLrX3Eabya
— Acyn (@Acyn) October 13, 2024
She’s taking the fight to Trump. Watch and share with your networks. Any people on the sidelines in your life? Ask them to watch. https://t.co/bZDYPEuZu8
— Neera Tanden?? (@neeratanden) October 14, 2024
Oh wow that is the Nashville bridge when back in September Jon helped get a woman off the ledge of the bridge they were filming the video on pic.twitter.com/0stSk6DrI7
— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) October 11, 2024
Compare & contrast…
I would pay an unbelievable amount of money to see Vance do this exact thing https://t.co/mGS2wSItmy
— vituperativeerb (@vituperativeerb) October 11, 2024
I continue to hope he has a better relationship with his kids in real life than the one we see on TV (and that they don’t watch these), because man the one we see on TV… https://t.co/G7wqT8HkKE
— Patrick Dillon (@mpdillon) October 12, 2024
JUST IN: @JoeBiden will campaign in Philly on Tuesday!
My advice: put him in every union hall between Philly and Milwaukee, and unleash Dark Brandon. pic.twitter.com/jMTJIegU6f— GeorgiaPeach OG Biden for Harris ?????? (@ChrisFromGA68) October 13, 2024
Today, I was personally able to say thank you to the brave first responders in Florida responding to Hurricane Milton.
This is all a team effort – and their brave efforts made a difference and saved lives. pic.twitter.com/aL4ylbyS6y
— President Biden (@POTUS) October 13, 2024
On The Road – Albatrossity – Photo Walkabout August 2024 – 5
Baud
And we will win!
lowtechcyclist
Good morning, y’all! Happy Indigenous People’s Day!
Baud
@lowtechcyclist:
Good morning.
MazeDancer
It’s the last week of PostCard Time!
Spend it writing, not fretting.
Got some fresh addresses for Savannah. (Trump can’t win without GA.) And Allred. And House races in NY. And NC. (Trump can’t win without NC.) And more.
PostCardPatriots.com.
(Or click on my nym)
Scout211
Here’s hoping that this good news, positive thread stays that way.
I love the Drew Sheneman comic! It’s perfect.
ETA: corrected autocorrect.
NotMax
Holiday morning java sipping music.
These boots are made for finger snapping.
;)
Jesse
All in for Harris/Walz and all Ds down ballot. We’ve got this. Heads down. Ignore the polls. This isn’t the same as “unskew the polls”, which is/was a dishonest way to deal with political headwinds.
frosty
I’ll have to take that comic with me when I’m canvassing. It’s a better way to react to “I haven’t made up my mind yet” than my (so far) unstated “WTF are you brain dead?!??”
ETA react as in pull it out and show it to the voter.
Betty
The stark contrast between these two tickets is unprecedented. Like most everything associated with Trump’s political career.
Salty Sam
JD Vance slagging his own kids at that rally puts me in mind of Ted Cruz attempting to do a photo-op hug&kiss with his daughter and being physically rebuffed.
Ugh, these fucking people…
Leto
@Jesse: ignore the polls and ignore the trolls.
NotMax
@Leto
Or vice versa.
:)
TBone
Tim Walz about to make my heart ‘splode. More tonic masculinity, please, it’s a good kinda ‘splode!
HONEY 😍
https://youtu.be/eTzM6yn8hQg
TBone
@NotMax: 💜😻
Kay
If you’re the kind of person who can do door to door or phone canvassing, please do. This is going to come down to turnout and a personal live contact is still the best method. I know everyone always says that, but it’s true this time. My sense is Trump voters are going to turn out so we have to beat that. We can’t complain if our voters don’t come out and theirs do…
Don’t panic but do a phone bank shift.
gkoutnik
@TBone: Love your musical contributions every day. Look forward to them!
Working on the last ten of 700 postcards. Wish I had more, and more time.
Chris Johnson
@Leto: I go to Twitter now and then to see the trollage laid bare. It’s really not pretending to be anything other than what it is. There’s a lot of that about.
We don’t have to preemptively surrender to it… or any claim we expect to see made. There is no world in which Trump and his handlers will NOT claim all sorts of nonsense, they are already doing it and if it was helping they’d be able to dial it back and manage a pretense, but it’s not and they can’t and they’re going to go down fighting every step of the way.
Casts some light on who they are, how guilty they are, of what, and what they expect to get by way of justice. I’m sure not going to surrender to them.
Bupalos
I think the polls probably capture something real, but the real thing they capture is just that it’s natural for things to oscillate in this political environment that is powered overwhelmingly by a kind of terrified negativity.
Harris’s positives went down in part because the idea of her being president is becoming more real. That both enflames the right wing fear-based hatred and primes left wing disappointment with business as usual eg. Israel or climate inaction.
It’s just a terrible time to be an incumbent, and as either candidate edges towards the position there will be some equal and opposite reaction, as America’s body politic has an auto-immune response to it’s own choice as it makes that choice.
So I generally disagree with partisan conspiracy explanations for these polls, but agree strongly that no one should be surfing these waves. We’ll know on or about November 10 what the basic shape of the next couple years of the fight is going to look like. We know right now what we should be doing. And it’s not ‘reading polls.’
One thing I think helps Trump is talking in apocolyptic and final terms about this election. It tends to make people forget about positive freedom and policy and the real outcomes they want. And then things play out in a kind of fantasy world, where Trump dominates bigly the best you’ve never seen such winning.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
Good people just are. The jerks show it to you every time.
The Other Bob
Jon BonJovi doing his best to keep America from committing suicide.
TBone
@gkoutnik: 😊
TBone
@The Other Bob: 💙🎯
NotMax
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
Gather them on a debate stage to engage in a pay per view Jerk Off.
//
Sure Lurkalot
@Salty Sam: Aren’t Vance’s kids having sense knocked into them by their mother (who quit her job when Vance was picked as VP and is nowhere to be seen on the campaign trail) and grandmother (whose job in retirement is to care for her grandchildren)? What, is the 2 year old balking about pissing in the toilet and the 6 year old complaining about bedtime? Horrors of misbehavior!! Are your women not doing enough knocking them around, JD?
Scout211
We filled out our ballots yesterday and will be dropping them off at the drop box this afternoon.
We continue to vote against the odious Tom McClintock for our congress person, but he still keeps winning. I am hoping that a lot of our district MAGA voters will be mad at him for his close ties to Kevin McCarthy. But alas, they probably don’t even know about it.
Raoul Paste
@Salty Sam: Exactly. I suppose Vance’s kids will be cashing in with a tell-all book someday.
TBone
College radio WQSU proves the Kidz is Alright
https://youtu.be/_Zrkf65GmwE
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
@NotMax: No joke. Seriously, though, I’m on the outside looking in and horrified that people think this language and behavior are okay. I don’t get his wife at all. Why would she be okay with this? He had choices. He spoke about how well behaved the kids were. He could’ve said my wife and I make a point of teaching our kids manners. Instead, he talks about knocking sense into them. Jerk with a capital J.
New Deal democrat
Per Dan Guild:
“Harris is now running ahead of Biden’s 20 numbers among African Americans – and well ahead of the D’s ’22 numbers. There is NO reason to believe she will not do as least as well among African Americans as D’s did in ’20 or ’22.”
He cites Chris Toiler’s point re the CBS poll showing Harris with identical 87% to 12% support among African Americans vis-a-vis 2020.
His topline average of reliable nonpartisan polls *does* show slight (0.25%) movement towards Trump in the last several weeks.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about the fundamental trajectory of the race in the past several weeks. Harris seems to be playing “prevent defense” (which in real life as in the NFL prevents you from stopping the other team), and running the same “Trump bad” campaign that Hillary ran in 2016. Meanwhile Trump is relentlessly hitting the one issue on which he has majority support: immigration. If the election is about immigration, Harris loses.
Harris needs to break through and hit 2 or 3 big issues (one of which is abortion) to reframe the election. And, regrettably, I think she needs to answer Trump on immigration with her own plan (imo of course).
On the other hand, via Dana Houle, the internal NRSC poll shows the following in the hot Senate contests:
AR: 47/42 (D +5)
MD: 49/41 (D +8)
MI: 46/38 (D +8)
MT: 44/48 (R +4)
NV: 43/36 (D +7)
OH: 45/39 (D +6)
PA: 48/46 (D +2)
TX: 47/48 (R +1)
WI: 46/45 (D +1)
Apparently the leak was to alert “normie” GOPers not to trust the crypto-bros sponsored partisan polls showing the GOP in good position.
Makes me think $$$ would best be spent in WI and TX and Tester, unfortunately, must be abandoned.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for US?
The great orange Satan has been looking at early voting turnout. So far our turnout as a share of the electorate looks like basically the last two elections. In the battleground states so far our turnout as a share of those voting is way up from 2020 and marginally up from 2022. Republican turnout so far is marginally up (3 points higher) from 2022 but there’s an 8 point fall off from 2020. At this point in 2020 Repubicans were 36.1% of the turnout. This year 28.2 (it was 25.2 at this point in 2022). Dems were 48.5 in 2020, 57.6 in 2022 and currently at 58.9 this year. National early voting numbers more or less track these battlegrounds but Dem turnout so far is actually a higher percentage of the turnout in battlegrounds than in the nation at large. The pandemic was a big wild card in 2020 as far as turnout but so far early returns don’t indicate any lack of enthusiasm on our side. On the other hand…2022 was a mid term and Republicans turned out early at lower rates than 2020…this year is the Presidential election and they aren’t bouncing back to 2020 levels so far. IDK how much this really means – maybe they’re all waiting to vote later – but Kos seems to think it’s a good sign. They’re less given to doom on that site than on a lot of liberal blogs. I’m not saying they’re not maybe too optimistic but it’s a place to go if you’re starting to feel gloomy and looking for someone to give you some hope.
NotMax
@Sure Lurkalot
Weirdo McBeardo taking a cue from Bette Davis?
TBone
@NotMax: great scary movie! 👸
TBone
@TBone:
Lost my shape
Trying to act casual
Can’t stop
I might end up in the hospital
Changing my shape
I feel like an accident
They’re back
To explain their experience
Isn’t it weird?
Looks too obscure to me
Wasting away
That was their policy
I’m ready to leave
I push the fact in front of me
Facts lost
Yeah, facts are never what they seem to be
Nothing there
No information left of any kind
L-l-lifting my head
L-l-looking for the danger signs
There was a line
There was a formula
Sharp as a knife
Facts cut a hole in us
There was a line
There was a formula
Sharp as a knife
Facts cut a hole in us
I’m still waiting, I-I-I’m still waiting
The feeling returns
Whenever we close our eyes
Lifting my head
Looking around inside
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don’t do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
I’m still waiting, I-I-I’m still waiting
zhena gogolia
@Betty: I can watch that video of Walz with the kids all day long.
WTF is wrong with JD Vance? What a slimeball, talking about his own children that way. Har har, so funny.
Kay
People can phone bank remotely, too. The goal with phonebanking is not just to turn out a D voter but to make the election top of mind for that D voter in the hopes he or she will double or triple it by mentioning the call to others, so going off script and just having a pleasant 30 second enounter is fine. It doesn’t have to be some hard sell. It can be in line with your actual approach to people. I say “I always vote early so I have voted already…” (leaving a blank) – they’ll then fill the space you leave and volunteer whether they vote early or not so you don’t have to feel like you’re prying. People are uncomfortable with empty space in a convo so they almost always fill it but you have to leave it open.
Freelance! Go off script. These are GOTV calls. We want a positive encounter and reminder and freelance is more authentic and comfortable for both parties.
NotMax
3:30 a.m. and just sitting down to din-din..
Retirement is heavenly. No angst regarding clock watching, eat and sleep when the whims urge.
;)
Kay
@New Deal democrat:
That would be so great because the NYTimes is really banking on AA numbers for Trump. Their whole model falls apart without that.
Would be so great to discredit those arrogant assholes.
Soprano2
I saw an ad while watching the news last night with Republican women endorsing Crystal Quade for MO governor (she’s the Democrat). It’s the first time I’ve seen it. I’d love it if she won, but I doubt she will because there are too many TCFG fans in MO right now. I got my signs from the local Democratic office last week; one for Crystal for governor, for my incumbent “D” for state House, for Harris/Walz, and “yes” on Amendment 3, which is the restoration of abortion rights in MO. I had to hunt for that sign, because the Democratic office was all out of them. I hope that’s a good sign – I think it’s going to pass, and even though they shouldn’t be able to the R’s in the state legislature are going to try to fuck with it.
The woman at the local Democratic office said what they’re hoping to do this year is break the R supermajority in the state House. As it is, the MAGA crazies in the state legislature have made it so hard to get anything done that the other R’s are already depending on Democrats to help them pass things. They almost didn’t get the budget passed last year, which I believe is the first time that’s happened. I’m hopeful they’ll succeed in this goal, which I think is the most they can hope for right now.
TBone
@NotMax: I fucking love it!
Enjoy 😊🥰
We are so privileged, to have this time. I told my parents long ago I’d rather have time than money. They body checked me on that one, gave both.
NotMax
@Soprano2
Surprised they haven’t rammed through a bill to change the name o the state capital from that well-known commie pinko to Trumpopolis.
//
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
@zhena gogolia: Totally agree. Waltz comes across as warm and like a teacher. He gets down to their level. Vance speaks of his kids like their property. Turns my stomach.
Elizabelle
@Baud: Proud of you, bud. That’s the spirit.
Trivia Man
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for US?: I am also crossing my fingers fir the liz cheney/ anti-dobbs wing tonturn out for harris. That will show up as GOP turnout in these numbers.
Soprano2
She does talk about this, she says she supported the bill that TCFG had the Republicans tank. I think it doesn’t break through as much as his fascist rhetoric does, though. I’m not sure what else she should do in regards to the issue of immigration; maybe highlight what a nightmare TCFG’s proposed massive deportation plan would be. I think she should be relentless on the abortion/reproductive rights messaging, because it’s her best issue and when she talks about it you can tell she really means it. She’s passionate about that. I still think this is the stealth issue of this election because lots of the national press discounts women’s votes so they discount this issue more than they should.
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: reposting because there are pearls of wisdom everywhere. Many here!
https://digbysblog.net/2024/10/12/beds-are-burning-top-10-films-for-indigenous-peoples-day/
What Have the Romans Ever Done for US?
@Trivia Man: Hope that helps…I recall discussion in 2022 that the Dems have captured more high propensity voters that we’ve erased the Republican edge there. Also…I’ve heard A LOT of actual Republicans say they’re voting for Harris. Not just Liz Cheney but a bunch of people on TV that aren’t politicians. So far all we have as evidence that anyone new is voting for Trump are nebulous vibes and “polls” but they never really give you the polling data – they just say polls are showing – so it seems like BS. I haven’t heard of anyone that’s voted for Dems up to this point and has now decided Trump is the guy.
Elizabelle
@Kay: The other thing I would advise, even if it’s not on the script.
Get them, and everyone they can persuade, to vote early. Bank that vote. That way the Dems can concentrate their efforts on other voters, and the vote is in, whatever vagaries early November delivers. Illness, car trouble, malfunctioning voting machines and long lines.
Bank that vote. Early.
Soprano2
Kudos to Harris, she really knows how to get under his skin. That “weak” slam is going to wound him.
TBone
I have to revise my earlier statement about fall foliage here now that the sun is really up. We have a bit more than a glimmer of color going on suddenly, some fantastic reds and oranges and yellows are glowing while being tossed around by this north wind!
TBone
@Soprano2: 💜💪🔥
Elizabelle
@Kay: missed this comment. Yes indeed.
We are the genuine (non-paid) GOTV team. Be human. I have never stuck to the script. Not a robot.
Chris Johnson
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat): They’re trying hard to make the Trumpian right more violent than they are, so that’s toward a purpose other than childrearing. It’s performative.
NeenerNeener
I mailed my ballot last Wednesday because there’s only one drop box in the whole &^@%&#%^@&%# county and it’s not anywhere I can get to easily. I checked the Ballot notification thing and it shows a received date of 2 weeks before I actually mailed it. Since I’m deep in Falwellville my vote for Harris probably wouldn’t make a difference anyway.
Betty Cracker
@New Deal democrat: We’ve all heard Harris say she’d push to resurrect the pretty conservative “bipartisan” immigration bill that Trump cynically directed GOP electeds to kill to preserve the issue for him to run on. I’m not sure what else she can say aside from emphasizing that more?
I don’t know. It’s a perilous issue for Dems because demagoguery is so much easier than proposing actual solutions. My sense is that Trump may piss away his advantage on immigration because for him, “focus” tends to mean screeching ever crazier things like “THEY’RE EATING THE DOGS!” But that could be wishful thinking on my part.
TBone
Mood music with plenty of laughter! 🥰😍
https://youtu.be/bsYp9q3QNaQ
Jackie
I approve this suggestion 100%! Gooo Dark Biden!
The Thin Black Duke
Agreed. Dobbs is the wild card in this election. Every woman in America is aware that they’re one bad day away from bleeding out in a hospital parking lot.
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
frosty
@Kay: I can do door to door canvassing but I don’t enjoy it. Started in 2004 and every damn election since then has been more critical than the last so I haven’t been able to drop it. Sigh.
ETA I did one shift of phone banking long ago. Hated it. Never again!
narya
@TBone: I watched it last night, as a matter of fact. It’s good–meditative rather than propulsive, like Reservation Dogs, and I would have liked a little more of the commingling of the music, but definitely a good watch for Indigenous Peoples Day.
NotMax
Blockquote fail. Fix.
@Betty Cracker
He recently proposed the death penalty for repeated attempts to enter the country.
Hard to get more extreme than that.
Soprano2
@NotMax: The problem for TCFG is that while his cult members love it when he says that stuff, everyone else is kind of appalled.
TBone
@Jackie: 💙👻
Haunting them with laser eyes! ❤️
Baud
@Soprano2:
It’s hard for us to judge what appals people. I’m not saying your wrong. Just that I don’t know.
Soprano2
@Baud: True, but I think most people would not be keen on having the death penalty for trying to come into this country more than once.
Origuy
I’m about to leave Philadelphia after a week in Pennsylvania. The Poconos are beautiful this time of year; I had heard people talk about them but this was my first visit. They would have been nicer without all the Trump signs, though. There were a fair number of signs for Harris, though. Typically, there would be one sign for Harris/Walz and one for Casey, while there would be four or five Trump/Vance signs on a lot. The trumpers really want you to see their signs.
In Scranton and Philly, though, the visible support for Harris and Democrats was much greater.
Geminid
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for US?: Plenty of professional and amateur political observers discount the value of “conversion strategies,” and practical results tend to bear their scepticism out.
This may be an exceptional year, though. Trump is driving Republicans and Independents to the Democratic side in a way Democrats could have on their own.
Trump likes to think of himself as a great salesman, but in the end his biggest accomplishment in that area could be selling a couple million Republicans and Independents on voting Democratic.
TBone
More tonic masculinity on theme 🎶
https://youtu.be/3HwWDOQoCBM
Bon Jovi is a national treasure! I was not a big fan in my youth, but he has won my heart since I grew up.
gene108
@Kay:
I think so too. Trump’s eliminationist rhetoric will turnout a lot of his voters, who might’ve stayed home.
I’m not sure how much more enthusiasm VP Harris or Governor Walz can generate versus Trump, who has over performed October polls in 2016 and 2020.
I think being dismissive of bad news, like recent polls, doesn’t help like panicking doesn’t help. Trump’s not just trying to eke out an EC win, he wants to win the popular vote. This is why he is campaigning in CA and NY. Reduce Democrats margins in those states by paying attention to Republican voters there and he may win the popular vote nationally.
Biden won in 2020 because he cut into Trump’s margin with white men. Harris can’t do that. She needs to boost minority and women voter turnout to record level in the battleground states and that’s a very heavy lift.
TBone
@Origuy: we invite you to view the Pennsylvania Appalachians when you come back. Wilder than the Poconos but still conveniently civilized in some pockets. Best of both worlds.
Jackie
@Soprano2:
Also calling him unstable! TCFG always refers himself as a “very stable genius.”
Harris is sooo good at taunting his fragile ego!😂
Geminid
@Geminid: Should read: “Trump is driving to the Democratic side in a way Democrats could never have done on their own.”
TBone
@narya: 💜
Tom’s posts at Digby’s Place are frequently great for their heads ups!
Yarrow
I was struck by this reply to another post by Jamelle Bouie over at Bluesky.
And then I idly started wondering if it would be effective to create an ad targeting Christians that did comparisons of the antichrist and TFG. Maybe it would work with waffling Christians who are afraid to make the leap away from Republicans. Has anyone seen an ad push like this? A post somewhere?
Baud
@gene108:
We have no real information. Pollsters have adjusted their model to take account of past misses so you can just say he’ll overperform the polls again. He might. We just don’t know, and too many libs are uncomfortable not knowing.
NotMax
@TBone
♫ He’s got Zok the dragon eyes.
:)
TBone
@NotMax: 😍
lowtechcyclist
@TBone:
He’s just being a normal, decent, caring person.
Weird that so many Rethug politicians can’t even fake it.
Oh good, it’s Herb Alpert! I was so afraid it was going to be the Bobby Goldsboro song of that name, which would have been even worse than a Rickroll.
Westyny
@New Deal democrat: The Dan Guild post and thread gives the lie to FTFNYT’s little October Surprise of a manufactured story. I hope it will get some traction.
Soprano2
@Origuy: If the TCFG people are charging for those signs they’re going broke. I had to pay $20 for my Harris/Walz sign, because the local office had to pay that much for them. The others were free to me.
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: those “normal man” figures were scarce when/where I grew up. We need them, so many more of them, than we have, in the spotlight!
NotMax
@TBone
Had some pretty wild times in the Poconos. Even if a hamlet close by was saddled with the unfortunate name of White Beauty.
tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)
@Chris Johnson: It may be performative, but there are nut jobs who will see it as validation for their childrearing ways. Like cockroaches, we need to shine a light on them and then stomp on them at the polls before they can scurry and hide until next time.
Yarrow
@gene108:
Maybe. It will turn off some people too.
I think there’s an opportunity for ads directed at immigrants – first and second generation – saying, “You think he doesn’t mean you? He means you.” Then show things TFG says about all immigrants and various classes of non-white people. Show footage of the Muslim ban and airport crowding. People have forgotten just how bad it was and they think he doesn’t mean it and if he does he doesn’t mean them. He does and he does.
TS
@Betty:
Just watched the Wal video with the children 3 times – the man connects with everyone – the mom just loved it – the children enjoyed it
… and then there is Vance – “knocking sense” into his children.
This lot are so keen on babes before they are born … then …. nothing. I call that weird.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for US?
@Geminid: The ones who are converting it’s about democracy and January 6, and specifically Trump doubling down on that stuff. They’re mostly educated white collar suburbanites. They’re smart enough and committed enough to democracy to know if they ever want to be able to “vote the bums out” ever again, they have to vote D this time. Plus just standing up for American political norms. IMO it is a bit of a special case right now, and I can see why there would be a shift among those voters towards Democrats, and I don’t think it’s entirely trivial numbers. The question is whether there’s some other sliver of the electorate that’s moving the opposite direction for some reason. We hear hints of that but so far not much actual evidence.
TBone
@NotMax: I too have had some fun times pub running through the Poconos, stories that would set your hair on fire 😆 but can’t derail this thread.
Some gangsta hideouts not so hidden.
rikyrah
Good Morning Everyone 😊 😊 😊
Baud
@rikyrah:
Good morning.
Belafon
@Elizabelle: I used to prefer voting on election day because of the feelin of being part of the important day, but now I vote early so that the line is shorter on that day, and this election as many people should vote early as they can because of possible shenanigans on the actual day, especially if you aren’t white.
Another Scott
Warning – Politico.
(via Redistrict – Dave Wasserman )
Cheers,
Scott.
New Deal democrat
@Soprano2:
@Betty Cracker:
Saying she supported “a bill” means nothing to 90% of normies. She needs to bullet point a few of the bill’s provisions that she supports, e.g.:
No longer will asylum applicants be able to stay in the United States for years while waiting for an immigration judge to hear their case.
Instead, thousands of new USCIS asylum officers will be able to decide most asylum cases within six months. All asylum applicants will undergo thorough security vetting. Each applicant will need to prove to the asylum officer by “clear and convincing evidence” that they qualify for asylum. Based on experience, most applicants will not qualify,
If the number of inadmissible migrants exceeded 8,500 in a single day, or five thousand a day over a seven-day period, the Secretary of Homeland Security will be required to “close” the border to asylum claims.
That would get through to a lot of more moderate anti-illegal immigration normies that she supports a real plan.
Belafon
@Yarrow: There really should be an ad talking about Ike’s deportation plan, literally called Operation Wetback, and how there were many US citizens that were grabbed in the roundup and sent to Mexico.
Harrison Wesley
After seeing some of his remarks about his kids, I wonder how Vance treats all the young Furniture-Americans he’s fathered outside his marriage.
Another Scott
@New Deal democrat: She’s done that.
E.g. in her Arizona speech.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for US?: The issues of Ukraine and NATO are driving some of the Republicans and conservative Independents towards Harris. Beyond their policy implications these issues highlight Trump’s fealty to Putin, and that speaks to the biggest wedge issue of all: Trump’s character.
TBone
Good thing inflatable Gritty came with tie downs, or he’d be Super Gritty today!
https://youtu.be/pqtDmnWYMuc?si=LjXFvJy6OHMpwL9n
comrade scotts agenda of rage
Walz is an absolute treasure.
I mentioned on Saturday that there was a neo-nazi march on the clusterfuck that is the 16th st mall “redo”. Turns out there was *zero* localyokel news coverage on it. I’m still not sure what to make of that. Giving those clowns any kind of exposure is bad but then letting it go unremarked brings it’s own issues.
Ceci n est pas mon nym
4.5 million people have already voted. Dem ballots lead 55% to 29% Repub from states with party registration data (17% none or minor party).
In my state of PA, Dem ballots lead 68% to 23%.
Source.
Looks like both campaigns are here in the Philly area today. TFG is stinking up Oaks, which is fortunately far from me, Joe Biden is attending a dinner tonight in Philly, and Jill Biden is somewhere in the burbs.
gene108
@Yarrow:
I don’t think Trump’s elimnationist rhetoric has gotten enough to attention to get most people to realize what he’s been saying.
Trump literally told Hugh Hewitt that immigrants are genetically predisposed to murder, and some media is covering it as Trump’s fascination with genetics.
At some level, I think Trump’s worst statements are background noise to a lot of people, because it’s been an endless stream of crap from him for nine years.
TBone
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: my sincere condolences, that’s fucked up (lack of coverage). I don’t know if it’s a good thing or not, but at least some mention of why it’s wrong and weird seems in order.
David Collier-Brown
@frosty: Yes: it’s getting close to the point where people stop saying they “haven’t decided” and actually look to see what the election is about.
IMHO, People who say “I haven’t decided yet” are really saying “please go away, it’s not time to spend my time looking at political campaigns yet”. They’re not really undecided, they’re more trying to not spend their time until it matters.
In Canada, the election period is 31 days, and people start looking about that time. I speculate that’s happening in the US as well.
Admittedly, some politicians are sneaking campaign ads out year-round. For example, Ontario’s Mr Ford Car, announcing new roads to drive them on, but that doesn’t seem to do much.
Another Scott
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: One thing I try to remember is that anyone can make horrible statements and vile claims. Some kid on the Internet in Madagascar has as big a voice as the POTUS if enough people repeat it
E g. I don’t believe that some huge militia in Western NC is hunting FEMA officials. I do believe that a few trolls are making threats. We have to be smart about how we respond to stuff we read.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jeffro
I like that phrase! (First I’d heard of it – I am always late to the party, as they say =)
cain
@Kay:
I’m sadly not in a swing state but in blue Oregon. Not that we don’t need to canvas but I have not seen a single Trump sign in this city but seen many Harris signs.
We used to have a few trumpers with signs but I think they took them down out of embarrassment.
zhena gogolia
@cain: In blue CT the Trump signs are much less prominent this time.
TBone
@Jeffro: welcome aboard!
🎶😍
https://youtu.be/5tpxXDILZHs
My cousin met Tim Walz and Gwen too. The day before his debate. The photos are spectacular!
Jackie
Just saw this and rolled my eyes in a “another ex trumpie kissing TCFG’s fools gold ass,” which then made me wonder if DeVos and others fear the Wrath of Retribution should TCFG win:
DeVos and any other former Cabinet and staff members who quit following J6 might be at or near the top of TCFG’s many pages long list for punishment and retribution. DeVos (and others, ie Barr) might be attempting to keep her ass out of prison once TCFG’s Justice Dept is let off leash.
Something to ponder.🤔
Baud
Sometimes I have to fight the urge to engage in unproductive snark.
Jeffro
@Yarrow: I have to agree with Bouie – trump’s malicious insanity, the way he co-opts religion and nominally religious folks, and his ever-growing apocalyptic themes have made this atheist question his beliefs many, many times.
In the end, though, he’s just a malignant narcissist with far too much power (ie, money and media attention) and far too little accountability (ie, any whatsoever for his whole life).
cain
@New Deal democrat: she already said on immigration she would pass the border law. She has been quite clear that the border is a problem and will do what the GOP didn’t.
The GOP are assholes they will spend the rest of Harris’s presidency as the party of no and the press will go along as it has before.
This guy’s advice is dumb.
ETA #111 yes ! Again !
Soprano2
@New Deal democrat: When I’ve heard her talk about the bill she usually does say in general terms what it would do, especially the part about hiring more agents and speeding up asylum claims. Maybe she should be more specific. I think you can’t get too specific, though, or people’s eyes glaze over.
TBone
@Baud: fight the power! 😆
Jeffro
It is weird. It’s also lazy, just like everything else about them. Babies are great in the abstract, but then they arrive, and you have to put in the work!
I think on some level, terrible people know that they are terrible role models, and it probably weighs on them to have to hold back their immature, abusive, lazy selves all the time.
Too bad. They always have the option to grow up.
Frankensteinbeck
With Vance and kids, Vance is the toxic masculinity candidate. He’s the candidate for what I call ‘sitcom people’. For them the natural order of things is that the wife is the ‘ball and chain’ and children are nuisances. I’m not sure how much they view it as good or bad. They just think it’s how the world works. My best understanding of the thought process is that eventually the sex runs out and this is what you’re left with.
Soprano2
I think to a certain extent the press has become inured to it. I also think many people don’t believe he’s serious when he says things like this. He’s successfully gotten them to rationalize it as “TCFG being TCFG”, so they wave their hand and discount it. That’s dangerous IMHO.
TBone
I am not gathering news and information to share today. Yet. I have to go back to the dentist and I have a bad case of The Dread. No news is good news at this time.
Gritty is blowing in the wind, dancing fitfully, acting as Cat Fascinator today.
I need fascinator feathers in my hat.
Baud
@Soprano2:
NDD is an economist. He has the anti-glaze gene.
Baud
@Soprano2:
They’ve grown up in a world where they think the libs will save them. People love to free ride.
Belafon
@Jackie: Less than they fear higher taxes and a properly educated citizenry.
cmorenc
@Soprano2:
But they are not appalled enough to refuse to vote for TCFG because:
they expect a TCFG win will result in a more favorable tax / business-friendly / lower-regulation environment whereby they more easily make more $$, couple with:
their particular niche in society is in a bubble that will be immune from the nastier, harsher aspects of Trump’s regime, which is about “others” than themselves or their family.
These kinds of folks are the ones who said about Trump’s first term: “He’s a horrible person, but I like his policies” – which amounts to an “IGMFY” sort of attitude toward those who will bear the brunt of Trump’s nastiness. “The face-eating leaopard wouldn’t attack me” sort of mindset.
Jackie
@Geminid: Speaking of Ukraine… 😡
Soprano2
My unscientific observation is that stuff about transgender people is driving some more conservative voters. I had a conversation with a waitress at our regular breakfast restaurant this weekend about her daughter having a transgender girl in her cabin at camp. She was upset because the camp people didn’t tell the parents there was going to be a transgender girl there. She said this person was putting her hands on the other girls, trying to feel them up (I don’t know if it’s true, I only know what I was told). Maybe she was curious, or trying to be friendly, or maybe it was a lie, I don’t know. I told her this sounded more like a behavior problem than a problem of her being transgender, and that this behavior should absolutely be addressed because no one should have to put up with unwanted contact. She agreed that if a cis girl was doing it that would be just as much of a problem. This woman is liberal, but she was really upset about this, and said her daughter said she won’t go back to that camp because of this experience. We don’t like to admit it, but a lot of “normies” are kind of freaked out about transgender people, and as transgender people become more visible the “normies” get more freaked out. It’s sad but true.
Baud
@Soprano2:
Could be. We lost in 2004 because Republicans demonized gay marriage.
zhena gogolia
@Soprano2: They always have some excuse to vote for Trump.
TBone
@TBone: 😆😍
https://youtu.be/Il1s7QtuCT8
https://youtu.be/4nk6mCYVNw0
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
True. I sure haven’t heard about all the new voters we’ve gotten because of right wing church people molesting kids.
oldgold
This election has had more black swans plop down into the political pond than any I can recall.
These black swans have been called to land by the deafening dark diabolism that swirls about Trump.
Given this sinister calling has not been muted, but has intensified, I expect at least least one more black swan to be enticed to land. I pray the resulting political wave is to our benefit.
Baud
@oldgold:
I think 2016 was worse.
Soprano2
@zhena gogolia: This is true, I just think we shouldn’t fool ourselves. I think acceptance of transgender people (especially transgender females) is probably where acceptance of gay people was in the late 1990’s. Like I said, this woman is liberal and she’ll vote for Harris, but she was upset about it. Imagine how the more conservative parents looked at it.
Soprano2
@Baud: That’s because they blame it all on the kids and women who are abused, thinking they did something to lead that good man astray. They rarely ever blame the perpetrator of the crime.
Baud
@Soprano2:
She should be upset if her kid was harmed. But she’s voting the right way.
Everything we do is new and scary to people. We’re not the conservative party for a reason.
catclub
@Jackie: Yes, it was not bringing the fight, it was bringing the taunting.
Baud
@Soprano2:
I know. But if it’s a one way street, then we’re in trouble. We’re not going to completely eliminate bad things happening to people.
Belafon
@Soprano2: There’s a reason Republicans aren’t running ads in Texas touting their ending of Roe and instead are running ads about scary trans people and Democrats supporting them.
New Deal democrat
@Another Scott: Quoting her Arizona speech:
Cut a 30 second ad saying exactly that, so that the message gets through.
Melancholy Jaques
@gene108:
Agreed. That is why I think the message that we can put Trump behind us, that we have to move forward is effective with some normie voters.
UncleEbeneezer
@NotMax: I once smoked magic mushrooms (yes, you read that correctly, lol) in a tent, during a rain-storm in the Poconos.
Note: don’t try this at home. It doesn’t make you trip, tastes like shit and gives you a horrible headache.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
Much worse. The NYT was openly anti-Hillary Clinton, the FBI was working for Trump, and every cable show was treating him like Elvis.
UncleEbeneezer
@Soprano2: Annec-data for sure, but I follow a lot of Transgender people on social media and almost none of them have any interest in Cisgender women. Most of them date/marry Cisgender Men or fellow Trans Women. Of course, Trans Girls/Women who are into Cis Women do exist, but they seem pretty damn rare from what I’ve seen. It sounds like this lady is buying into the extremely common Trans-Panic myth that Trans People are predators, despite zero evidence of that actually being the case.
Another Scott
@New Deal democrat:
Like this?
I’m not trying to be a dick about this. :-)
Her campaign is doing the work, and trying to get the message out there. There are only so many hours in the day, and it’s very hard to get a message out when all the MSM wants to talk about OMG DID YOU SEE WHAT DONOLD SAID JUST NOW??!!
Cheers,
Scott.
oldgold
@Melancholy Jaques: “Much worse. The NYT was openly anti-Hillary Clinton, the FBI was working for Trump, and every cable show was treating him like Elvis.”
Except, those are not black swan events. Black swan events are such things as Biden dropping out and the Trump assassination attempt.
Baud
@oldgold:
Comey? He was the blackest of October swans
ETA: Lots of other black swans in 2016 if you look beyond October.
Steve LaBonne
@Another Scott: I just don’t see any aspect of her campaign where she’s leaving any money on the table. If we go down we will have gone down fighting. But I think we’re going to win.
zhena gogolia
@Baud: The Trump assassination attempt didn’t seem to change much.
TBone
@UncleEbeneezer: 😆
Make the tea next time!
JML
@Soprano2: I think this is right. My generation (GenX) has patted itself on the back over its stance on gay rights, and sadly there are too many who as we’ve aged have landed in a “this far, and no further” zone, which is shameful and sad.
The reality is so many people growing up in the 90’s had friends in high school who were gay and unwilling to hide in the closet. And we did ok in being allies (gay-straight alliances, showing up for Pride, and sticking up for our friends, etc) but many forgot we could have done better. And it’s easy to forget just how bad things often were for gay kids in the 90’s: the violence, bullying, and unfettered hate were there.
It’s no excuse for the bigotry we see against trans people, but it’s not surprising. generational experiences seem to take a while. I was hoping my generation would do better and remember what it was like in the 90’s, but sure seems like a lot of people are ok with running the same playbook.
scav
Eeeeerrrrrrgh, this is a hard one. But somehow important and I need to know. Is anyone seeing coverage elsewhere about the NRA’s Doug Hamlin being involved in a frat-based event of a cat’s sadistic killing and cover-up? I mean, it’s in the Guard (yes with details to be avoided for some) and fuck. Holy shit these are twisted individuals that keep floating to the top in those conservative trad-values crowds. Turds de la turd.
TBone
@oldgold: 👍 you are correct. I saw that a libertarian with guns had been caught doing stalking yesterday.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/13/what-we-know-vem-miller-trump/75663970007/
Didn’t even make a speed bump in this news cycle.
TBone
@scav: noping out on that one. Dentist is enough agony for today.
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
Really didn’t. Somewhat remarkable. Right wingers got more bent out of shape over “deplorables.”
Baud
@Steve LaBonne:
Agreed. People have a right to reject our vision.
Steve LaBonne
@scav: Being a truly vile person is what it takes to rise in that world. Sadly there are plenty who are up to the challenge.
Steve LaBonne
@Baud: I will never concede that they have a right to embrace Nazism as the alternative.
japa21
2 thoughts.
Regarding the polls, I think they are generally correct to a point. IOW, if their basic assumptions regarding turnout are correct, then the results are probably accurate. However, if their turnout assumptions are wrong, the results of the actual election can be way off. Those ifs carry a lot of weight.
I, personally, don’t think Trump’s rhetoric is bringing in new voters to him and can turn off other voters of his that aren’t full blown racist pigs. I do think that there will be a lot of new voters this year and they will predominantly fall into the Harris camp.
My other thought is that we are seeing a different approach by the media, both in terms of reporting on Trump (still not harsh enough though) and also in reporting on the economy. I don’t know how much of a difference it will make.
I will be an election judge this year like I have since 2016. This year I am also doing the early voting judgeship. It means 16 straight days. In 2016 I was feeling so good that, as soon as the polls closed I looked at BJ briefly to see the glorious victory celebration. We know how that turned out. I will do the same this year, and I do expect to see something different.
Baud
@japa21:
Thank you for doing that.
Yarrow
@Baud:
If you aren’t familiar with Beth Moore, do a search on her. She’s a highly influential former Southern Baptist Bible study teacher for women. She left the Southern Baptist church because of their cover up of sexual abuse. She herself was abused and has been fairly open about it. Many of her followers decry her as following satanic impulses and the like because she spoke out against TFG, but there are also those who agree with her.
These stories do get a modest amount of mainstream coverage but her reach is huge in the Christian community.
TBone
You had to know this was coming! ✊😆🎶
https://youtu.be/evA-R9OS-Vo
“The no pie, no sledgehammer team.”
Baud
@Yarrow:
Thanks for sharing that.
New Deal democrat
@Another Scott:
Hence why she needs to cut an ad. Again: immigration is Trump’s only winning issue. If she inoculates herself against that, he has nothing.
off to do something much more productive.
Have a nice day.
Steve LaBonne
@New Deal democrat: So you’re just going to ignore the fact that you were given a link to exactly the ad you were clamoring for. Whatever.
Belafon
@Steve LaBonne: But you see, the ad was created before NDd told her to, so it doesn’t count.
Yarrow
@Baud: Sure. I think she’s important in this election because her Bible studies are almost exclusively for women. She’s been clear as to why she left the Southern Baptist church (abuse, cover up, patriarchy) and still her Bible studies are wildly popular.
This election will be won at the margins, as always. I think Beth Moore will help peel off some women who need to see someone they respect say it’s okay not to vote for TFG.
Soprano2
@UncleEbeneezer: I really think it’s more about the fear that a cis gender boy is going to pretend to be a transgender girl in order to be able to molest girls in what they think should be “safe spaces” for girls, and then defend himself by claiming to be a girl. Also the fear that their daughter is going to see a real, live penis. I didn’t say it made sense, but I think this is mostly what it’s really about. Some of them honestly don’t believe transgender people are real, they think they’re pretending for some reason.
Chief Oshkosh
@Yarrow:
Yep, exactly. Other people insert the “illegal” part. Trump and Vance just say “immigrant” at this point, no qualifiers. Vic Meyers, the Colorado Cowboy on YT, had a video making exactly this point.
Harrison Wesley
@scav: But did he eat it? NO, HE DID NOT! Pwned again, libtard!
scav
@Harrison Wesley: Yeah, where WAS RFKjr in this incident?
Harrison Wesley
@TBone: They’re not interested in right-wing assassins. They need a life-long Democrat or some sort of lefty for it to be newsworthy.
Nelle
@zhena gogolia: In my section of Iowa (more blue than red here), I’ve seen one Trump sign and at least 20 Harris-Walz sign.
Baud
@Harrison Wesley:
They usually just make up whatever facts they need to. Still noteworthy that they didn’t.
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Harrison Wesley: So basically the facts aren’t cooperating with the narrative they want to push?
Baud
@Steve LaBonne:
If we win this election, it’ll be because of the votes of people who were going to let the Nazis win because Biden was too old.
You can only fight people so much. At some point, you’re forced to find a way to work with some of them.
schrodingers_cat
@Yarrow: We know. Ds win the naturalized citizen vote handily.
Sister Golden Bear
@Soprano2:
I seriously doubt the accusations of your waitress, since “trans people are sexual predators” has long been a anti-trans trope (and recycling of anti-gay tropes), and it’s definitely one that cultists and UK TERFs push extremely hard.
That said, according to a recent Gallup poll, voters rank transgender issues as the least important to their vote among a list of 22 issues (similar to 2022 and 2023). Of those who rank it as very important, most are Democratic voters. Unfortunately, as far as I can tell, the poll did not ask if respondents were pro/anti-trans. Though I’d like to think that “among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, transgender rights rank higher than immigration, crime, taxes, and energy” the vast majority of them were pro-trans.
Harrison Wesley
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: Was it Reagan that said “facts are stupid things?”
Ruckus
@Betty:
trump’s political career
That isn’t a political career as much as a political disaster. Even for those that voted for him. What did they actually get out of him being president? Because he doesn’t do anything for anyone but himself. And he even screws that up.
He’s a disaster of epic proportions.
Hurricane Shitforbrains
Baud
@Sister Golden Bear:
Yeah, I would have to think most Dems that ranked it as important are pro-trans rights. I have my criticisms of ourselves, but we’re mostly good people.
Sister Golden Bear
@Sister Golden Bear: Also worth noting:
Unfortunately, some Dem strategists have started bedwetting over the anti-trans ad blitz, and making noises about the need to backpedal on trans rights issues.
Yarrow
@schrodingers_cat: That’s why I included second generation immigrants in my comments. They make think they’re safe. They’re not under a TFG administration, especially if both of their parents were not American citizens.
It’s wild to me to see Latino people interviewed who are asked about these comments and they say, “He doesn’t mean it. He doesn’t mean me.” Good luck with that.
oldgold
Interesting.
“Kamala Harris is set to sit down for an interview with Brett Baier on Fox News on Wednesday at 6 PM ET.”
Not sure about this, I could argue it round or flat.
Baud
@oldgold: Hmm. I’m sure she’s getting advice from Pete B.
I’m glad I’m not on social media right now
ETA: Love the stick in the eye to the NYT. I wonder if they’ll still continue with their line that she is only doing softball interviews.
Steve LaBonne
@Baud: Look, I’m not going to get back into that fight, but that’s BS- it was mostly people who were terrified that Biden was highly likely to lose. We will never know if they were right and I don’t care at this point.
StringOnAStick
Someone should point out that in those ballot return percentages, we don’t know how many of those R ballots are people who are angry at the fact that TFG is their party’s candidate and very motivated to bank an anti TFG vote. I know several hard core R’s who voted for him the prior two times but Jan 6 was a bridge too far and either plan to write in Nikki Haley or leave that line blank. We don’t know how many, but they are out there and it seems to me that they’re pretty motivated.
zhena gogolia
@oldgold: I think it’s a good idea.
wjca
I suspect the supposed polls that say she won’t are an effort to reduce turnout. I also suspect it will prove to be seriously counterproductive.
Baud
@Steve LaBonne: I’m not re-starting a fight. I’m saying that we don’t have the ability to impose our will on anyone else, and that episode was a good example of it. We really can’t stop people from choosing fascism. All we can do is stay steadfast in opposing it.
Harrison Wesley
@oldgold: Sounds like a great move to me, but I do wonder how Fox will edit it.
Baud
@StringOnAStick: Agree. As I said above, we really don’t know anything. And it’s too late for any kind of course correction, so it seems to be trying to read the tea leaves is not very useful. But I get that people are stressed and want to talk about what they want to talk about, especially when the media is pushing it down our throats.
Baud
Try to imagine “manly” Trump sitting down with anyone at MSNBC. He’d be too scared to even sit down with Andrea Mitchell or Katie Tur.
Sister Golden Bear
@Soprano2:
That’s exactly the argument behind the “bathroom bills.”* Somehow it never occurs to them that forcing trans boys/men to use women’s bathrooms and lockers rooms will make it easier to for cis men to invade those spaces—not that cis men actually need any help in doing that. I mean it’s not like the “women’s” sign has super sekret force field powers. It also results in cis women who are harassed for not looking “woman enough.” E.g. there was a woman with alopecia who posted over at the Bad Place about being harassed and followed out of an airport bathroom because of this. I had sympathy for her until it turned out she’s a transphobe. Reap what you sow….
*Worth noting that the same “sexual predator in safe spaces” argument was made against lesbians in sports.
cain
@StringOnAStick:
His rallys are getting worse and worse.
Nevermind that this dangerous rhetoric of turning maga against fema people. That’s downright harm.
Don’t want help say so. Don’t threaten them with violence that they clear out of the area there are plenty of other people who need help.
That can’t be lost with the non Maga Republican voters.
The level of political violence has gotten worse.
TBone
@TBone: Jack Black wins the dance contest IMO.
It’s a short film, not a song video. Well, sort of a song video. Love the Deplorian! *chef’s kiss
They were ahead of this time…
EngineerScotty
@Sister Golden Bear:
The MAGA position isn’t that trans people should use the same restroom as their birth gender, even if they present (with clothes on) as the opposite gender.
The MAGA position is that they should stay home, and/or not exist at all.
Baud
@Sister Golden Bear: A lot of the most dedicated transphobes (as opposed to people for whom this is all new to them) are not really that opposed to sexual offenses committed by cis men.
wjca
She also mentions, every time, that it was a bipartisan bill. Normies love bipartisanship. So probably better than laying out any kind of plan of her own. And it doesn’t need to “break thru” to the public overall. Just to the audience it is intended for. On the evidence, her media team is really, really good at that kind of targetted advertising.
Geminid
@Jackie: The European Union doesn’t need Hungary, and they should prepare to expell Hungary if Orban won’t back down.
NATO doesn’t need Hungary either.
Ruckus
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
That capital J stands for Jackass.
That’s why he uses JD instead of his real name – Jackass Deluxe Vance.
Sorry/Not Sorry for this.
He really is the premise of the current day republican party. Not necessarily even a majority of the party but a not insignificant percent of them seem to like his low quality brand of humanity. Or are at least more than willing to put up with him as their desired representative.
oldgold
How can sane people vote for an individual that spawns this? They want more detail on Kamala’s housing proposal?
@KathyParkNBC Federal emergency workers were forced to pause their hurricane recovery efforts in North Carolina after National Guard troops reportedly discovered trucks of armed militia, who were “out hunting FEMA.”
Soprano2
@Sister Golden Bear: What she described sounded more like a girl desperately trying to bond and be friendly with other girls but not being sure exactly how to do it. My comment to her, again, was that if there was out of bounds behavior it should be addressed regardless of the gender of the person, because no one should be touched without their consent. I agree it’s highly possible that the girls exaggerated because they were freaked out and uncomfortable with the transgender girl. Some of them might never have encountered a person like that before. I know it’s not a voting issue for most people, but the R’s in this state are pushing it pretty hard, so they must think it’s a winner for them.
EngineerScotty
@oldgold: But Trump has HIS housing proposal!
(Which is “deport immigrants and give their housing to others”. Which is asinine and offensive enough as it is… but also ignores the reality that many undocumented immigrants live in places that the sort of wypipo who support this would not be caught dead in).
UncleEbeneezer
@Soprano2: No cisgender boy is going to pretend to be a transgender girl just to get access to girls. The bullying, harassment and physical violence they would face from other boys, not to mention the negative response of his own parents (many of whom are very Transphobic) are significant risks/deterrents.
Belafon
@EngineerScotty: Which is why all of the white people counting on free housing will demand citizens – naturalized or not – living in middle class neighborhoods be deported as well.
JML
@Yarrow: the “he doesn’t mean me” attitude is the really scary one, because it’s quite literally the road to fascism. And damn if it doesn’t happen all over the place on all kinds of policy issues.
Harrison Wesley
@EngineerScotty: The “others” are probably private equity firms.
wjca
And what are the odds that the daughter simply didn’t want to go back to camp? And hit on a great way to make sure her parents wouldn’t push back.
Baud
@wjca:
Anything is possible, but I don’t think we need to go all Evil Seed here. Kids sometimes treat other kids badly.
UncleEbeneezer
@Sister Golden Bear: Related: The whole dressing-up-like-a-girl/woman-to-get-laid trope seems like one of those things that many boys fantasize about, no one actually ever does, but ends up as a plot line for movies/tv etc., back when those things were almost exclusively written and green-lit by cisgender men.
EngineerScotty
@UncleEbeneezer:
The right seems to imagine that “cishet boys/men making frivolous claims to be transgender in order to peep on girls or cheat at sports” is a thing… and that the “liberal” position is that any claim to be trans MUST be accepted at face value, no matter how preposterous.
Of course, none of that appears to be happening. The few transwomen that I can think of in any sort of high level sports (NCAA or higher) are a) “legit” transwomen, in that they live their public lives as women and identify as such in all walks of their life, and are receiving verifiable medical treatment and such, and b) not dominating their sport.
The idea that a frat-bro can don a wig and a purse, and join the women’s swim team… that simply doesn’t happen.
(There does seem to be one place where frivolous claims to be a transwoman do occasionally occur–and that’s in prison).
Baud
@UncleEbeneezer:
I blame Tom Hanks in Bosom Buddies.
TBone
When I get back from the dentist:
https://x.com/CatWorkers/status/1845875572452610540
EngineerScotty
@UncleEbeneezer:
I tried to respond, but my comment got eaten.
The right seems to think that frivolous claims to be trans (i.e. someone who is cis in most walks of life, successfully claiming to be trans in order to cheat at sports or peep on women) is a thing.
It’s not. None of the trans athletes that I can think of who compete at a high level of sport (NCAA or better), are only “trans” on game day. They all live their lives full time as their identified gender, and most of not all are receiving medical treatment. (And none is dominating their sport).
Sister Golden Bear
@EngineerScotty: Yes, absolutely. They want trans people like me eradicated. With extreme prejudice.
@Baud:
Very true. The UK TERFs have been caping for a recently deceased transphobic public figure who was described by his own lawyer as being a sex pest.
@Soprano2:
Sounds quite plausible.
Republicans have been leaning hard on the anti-trans blitz, but as I mentioned above, fortunately past elections don’t seem to indicate it’s a winning issue. That said, it’s definitely inline with authoritarians/fascists to need an out-group to hate.
“Hatred is the most accessible and comprehensive of all the unifying agents. Mass movements can rise and spread without belief in a god, but never without a belief in a devil.” ― Eric Hoffer, The True Believer: Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements
UncleEbeneezer
It’s Time to Stop Panicking About the Polls
Ruckus
@New Deal democrat:
Is it possible that you think of shitforbrains as a political force? He is their desire because of his MONEY. For many humans being wealthy is the one and only goal they feel worth reaching for. And I’d imagine that being wealthy is nicer than just being. Bigger house, maybe your own 25 yr old plane to travel in…. But that hasn’t made shitforbrains any better as a human being than a cup of coffee would.
JoeyJoeJoe
@Baud: you don’t blame the people behind this TV show?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Work_It_(TV_series)
gene108
@Yarrow:
There’s no such thing as a second generation immigrant. The second generation are born in the USA and are as American as anyone else born here.
I understand the term gets used. I’ve used it before. I just think it’s a bad term given the anti-immigrant stance of the Republican Party.
TBone
@UncleEbeneezer: 💋😘
Baud
@JoeyJoeJoe:
prostratedragon
@NotMax:
Tight group!
From Zak Aster’s band, “Jazzy,” Willie Colón.
EngineerScotty
@gene108:
There are some in Trump’s camp who would totally be fine with retroactively eradicating the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of jus soli citizenship. Back when Harris became the nominee, there was briefly floated the idea that she was ineligible to be POTUS because neither of her parents were citizens at the time of her birth–and that as someone who only held jus soli citizenship (she was born in the US, and nobody seems to contest that) she wasn’t “natural born”. That idea got swatted down, but retroactive denaturalization is a thing in some quarters on the right.
My wife is a naturalized citizen from one of the countries Trump likes to hate. So heck yeah I’m concerned.
Melancholy Jaques
@New Deal democrat:
I agree with you and would like to see it in the last two weeks running during NFL, NCAA football, and MLB games.
Rough draft: There are no easy answers on immigration and our borders. But Democrats and Republicans got together and agreed to a set of solutions to the most urgent problems. Then Donald Trump told Republicans not to vote for it. He wanted the problems to continue so he could complain about them in his campaign. We have solutions for immigration and the borders. We just need Donald Trump to get out of the way.
Work with me on this.
Ruckus
@tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat):
This.
His name should be j d vinegar
UncleEbeneezer
@EngineerScotty: Yeah. Much like when I was a kid (80’s) we all knew the last thing you wanted to be seen as was gay, because of all the danger and stigmatizing homophobia that was all around us. I’m pretty sure a similar dynamic exists with kids today. They may have nothing against Transgender peers and may be supportive of them, but they also don’t want anyone to mistakenly believe they are Trans. I work with kids. Cisgender kids are still predominantly, very emphatic about fitting into traditional gender norms they were assigned at birth.
EngineerScotty
@UncleEbeneezer:
My kids (HS and college age) all have quite a few LGBT friends… but still routinely use “gay” as an insult.
Go figure.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Soprano2: Harris should emphasize following the law and how what Trump wants to do does not. That includes scaling up and streamlining the process so that immigrants who don’t qualify are deported promptly. Expressly call Trump out as lawless and out of control
Lyrebird
The people I know do not make up a representative sample, but I surely do know Democrats, Independents, and Republicans who may never use new pronouns, who might be uncomfortable about discussions of trans rights, and who absolutely DO NOT condone threatening harm – and taking away health care is harm demmit – to other people’s children because of some thing they find uncomfortable. I mean random conversations in Florida of all places, with generally non-political people responding to the anti-LGBTQ backlash there with “what the fk is wrong with these [ultraconservative legislator] people? who the fk cares???”
That phrasing might not sound heart-warming, but it was very earnest AGAINST the hate laws and AGAINST the persecution. So I’d like to think that those Democratic voters in the survey were standing up against persecution, too.
Ruckus
@NeenerNeener:
Every vote counts. It shows the strength of the candidate, even if too many people in your state don’t agree with you. It also shows them that they may not have the support that they think they do. And in a case such as this, any vote can have a tremendous impact on the entire state because it shows strength. If the percentage of votes in your state grows for the better side that is an indicator of the possible. If it grows early even better. That gives fence sitters a push. May it be a push in a good direction.
Soprano2
@wjca: Well, she said it was the fourth year her daughter had been to this camp. These are 13 and 14-year-olds. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that she was that freaked out.
As for the idea of dressing up like a girl to gain access to places where girls get naked, I think a lot of grown men think they would have loved to do that when they were that age without thinking through all the ramifications of it. They’re sure everyone would know they weren’t really a transgender girl, that they were just faking it because the adults were dumb enough to let them do that. Whether we like it or or not, or agree with it or not, these are things people really do believe.
Soprano2
@UncleEbeneezer: Democratic PTSD from 2016 and 2020 is still operative, I think.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, a reminder that as complicated as things are in the world right now, the future can be even moreso. We – at home and abroad – need competent leadership, now and in the future.
Things can always get worse. :-( We have to recognize our limitations, but we have to do what we can to build the future we want to see.
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Marleedog
No.
When we fight we win.
Four Directions is not giving up and neither should we.
In the words of WaterGirl on the fundraising page, “Thermometer Coming Shortly. ”
LFG
scav
@EngineerScotty: Well, gay already became decoupled from its meaning of happy — it could be breaking free from embracing all of homosexuality as a state of being and becoming sort of a generic insult. Or, maybe living in that limbo status that male and female inhabit, where they can contextually be insults as well as mere descriptors and/or plaudits.
JoeyJoeJoe
@Baud: Very few people have. I only know of it as it’s been listed as one of the worst television shows of all time
Leto
Wanted to chime in from the Reading, PA area which is part of the Philly market: we’re bombarded with Harris ads that focus on 1) the economy and 2) abortion/reproductive rights. Most of her ads are about those two topics, while the Trumpov and McCormick ads all focus singularly around immigration. I’ve had normies broach the subject of the election with me, and it basically surmounts to this: Trumpov’s plan is fucking lunacy as it would decimate the national economy. I know it’s a super small sample, but it seems like that part of the message is breaking through. I’m at like comment 50 something, trying to catch up, so not sure if other battle ground state peeps have spoken about their media markets.
Baud
@Leto:
Interesting. Thanks. I hope PA will make us proud.
UncleEbeneezer
@EngineerScotty: Yeah I still hear that every now and then with my students. Nowhere near as often as it was used when I was their age but still so disappointing that it still persists.
gene108
@EngineerScotty:
Stepehen Miller is a proponent of ending birthright citizenship. Trump’s hinted he’s okay with when he was in office.
Given the the fact the 14th Amendment does not explicitly state anyone born on U.S. is a citizen by birth, the 14A’s language is open to interpretation.
I fully expect Miller to get the U.S. DOJ to file a lawsuit in Texas to rescind the citizenship of an American born child of illegal immigrants, who committed a heinous crime, and one of the twisted Trump appointees will approve the revocation.
It’ll make it’s to the SCOTUS, where Roberts or Alito will hammer out a decidion where some people qualify for absolute citizenship by birth, some preferred citizenship by birth that can be revoked, and others may or may not be citizens by birth.
Part of the dissent in US v. Ark, which anti-birthright citizenship fucks echo even today.
https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/supreme-court-case-library/united-states-v-wong-kim-ark-1898
Quinerly
@lowtechcyclist:
Thanks for the “Honey” earworm now. Ugh.
Maybe I can banish the “Honey” earworm if I listen to “Seasons In the Sun.”😉
Leto
@Ceci n est pas mon nym:
That motherfucker; we used to live right next door in Royersford, and I still go to the Schuylkill River trailhead right there on Egypt Rd to cycle. Ugh.
Geminid
@Quinerly: What you need is a good counter-worm. The fiddle solo from Fiddler on theRoof works for me.
Ruckus
@Lyrebird:
Neutral is far better than hateful.
And think of it a different way. They may or may not know anyone with an orientation different than them but as you are pointing out, they still think that humans are not all the same and can have basic differing views on how humanity can work. They are open to different.
That is dramatically different than conservatives who think that there is only one way – their way.
And that every other way has to be eliminated to defend their choices.
Ruckus
@gene108:
because it’s been an endless stream of crap from him for nine years.
A hell of a lot longer than that. He’s been full of crap his entire life. OK maybe not his first couple of years.
Ruckus
@NotMax:
I put my clock in a location that makes it harder to see since I retired so that I have to work a bit to see it. For me sun come up, sun go down. Go to bed when sleepy, wake up when eyes open, get up if I feel like it. Another day checked off. The only reason I look at the clock is to see if the supermarket is open….
Jackie
@oldgold: Faux’s Bret Baier isn’t a “real Republican.” Per TCFG and MAGAts.
Melancholy Jaques
@Soprano2:
I don’t think I ever really recovered from 1980.
wjca
Much like how “Damn you!” has lost all theological connotations. There might be a handful of folks who actually mean damnation; there are still a few flat earthers, after all. But for practical purposes it is just a generic insult.
Geminid
@Jackie: I’m actually looking forward to the Bret Bair interview.
Quinerly
@Geminid:
I put on Al Kooper’s “Black Coffee”
The entire album. It’s helping.
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLcW5g6efJLLBEykvZqlkGIX8Y1wyQgh6P
trnc
JV, have you even met your running mate?
Geminid
@Quinerly: I once read Al Kooper’s acount of trying out to play on Bob Dylan’s Like a Rolling Stone album. I think producer Tom Johnston(?) was putting together a studio band for the recording. Kooper said he was thinking of snagging the guitar parts but then he heard Mike Bloomfield play and decided to try out for piano and organ instead. That was a talented group.
Anotherlurker
@Geminid: Many, many years ago I worked Al Kooper’s 50th birthday party. It was at the Bottom Line and it included incarnations of some of the bands fronted by Al. The entire Blues Project was there. Blood Sweat and Tears was represented by most of the original band. However, they were billed as Child is Father To The Man because they didn’t have rights to use B, S & T. Super Session and beyond were represented by studio musician royalty including Jimmy Vivino on guitar. In my humble opinion he is one of the few guitarists who can capture Mike Bloomfield’s impeccable tone.
It was an amazing night paying tribute to an innovative musician. It was more surprising considering that Al Kooper is known, in the biz as sometimes being challenging to work with.
One of the few shows that I would have worked for free. However, we were all paid well. Double goodness!
Geminid
@Anotherlurker: That’s a neat story. I kind of lost track of Kooper after the Dylan albums but I know I liked Blood Sweat and Tears’ first albums.
Central Planning
@Yarrow: I know I’m very late to the thread, but I doubt an ad would convince the true believers.
I was in the Adirondacks yesterday getting a coffee and bagel at a mom-and-pop coffee house. When I walked in, there was an older woman who had on a jacket with some sort of ministry she must have belonged to emblazoned on the back.
It was not zipped up, so I could see the words on her sweatshirt.. “Women for Trump”.
I gave her the stink eye when she wasn’t looking and shook my head disapprovingly. That will get her!
catclub
@Ruckus:
There is a Meidas Touch youtube on also having diapers that are full.
Quinerly
@Anotherlurker:
Great story! Thanks for sharing.
Quinerly
@Geminid: great story.
His memoir/autobiography a few years back is excellent.
Here’s a recent piece.
https://www.loudersound.com/features/al-kooper-stories
Msb
@Sister Golden Bear: and, of course, a standard slur on gay men used to be “they molest kids”.
phdesmond
@Quinerly:
“Green Onions” is my favorite tune from the album.
Bill Arnold
@Yarrow:
It’s like Mr. Trump is trying to align with Christian eschatology. For example, Trump actually said during the debate that he “probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me.”, alleging that an ear wound is a head wound. This brought the Revelation 13 a-wounded-head-of-the-Beast-miraculously-healed interpretation back to life, at least in Trump’s mind, such as it is. (I could make this considerably weirder and [theological]; holding back.)
Bill Arnold
@Baud:
I disagree.
IMO the Democratic political operatives in 2016 were much less competent than the Republicans. There is at least parity now, and IMO Democrats are better, and faster. GOP narratives(/ratfucking) are instantly counter-attacked, and don’t take root as easily.
Ruckus
@catclub:
I never said his diapers aren’t as full as he is………
Another Scott
@TBone:
:-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Quinerly
@phdesmond:
One of my favorites too.