(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note: We are home! The girls are up on the bed snoozing away as I type this. As you can imagine, I’m fried. I’m going to just run through the basics and then rack out.

Here is last night’s butcher’s bill:

Overnight, occupiers launched 136 Shahed UAVs at Ukraine—it’s a record number of strike drones since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Ukrainian air defenders shot down 51 UAVs. Active countermeasures by EW resulted in the loss of 60 Russian drones throughout Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/gbzH6USw92

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 16, 2024

Such a large amount of attack drones may be an attempt to probe Ukraine’s air defenses ahead of a big attack. But also notable is that increasingly large numbers of Shaheds are being reported as not shot down, but “lost” – perhaps indicating improved Ukrainian jamming. https://t.co/RQmPmEVIgI

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 16, 2024

President Zelenskyy presented the Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada today. Here are its five points:

Victory Plan Consists of Five Points and Three Secret Annexes

16 October 2024 – 14:25

The Victory Plan consists of five points – geopolitical, two military, economic, and security-related – and three secret annexes. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented the content of the Victory Plan during his address to the Verkhovna Rada.

The first point is an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO. According to the Head of State, the fact of Ukraine’s invitation to NATO could become fundamental for peace and serve as a signal to the Russian dictator that his geopolitical calculations have failed.

“Determination on the NATO issue for Ukraine also means the inevitability of European integration for Ukraine and the fact that there is no alternative to democracy in Ukraine. That is why this is the initial point of the Victory Plan. The first and very important point. The sign of determination. This is what the invitation is. An unconditional invitation right now,” the President emphasized.

The second point is defense. It outlines the irreversible strengthening of Ukraine’s defense against the aggressor. Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned that there is a clear list of weapons capable of sustaining the necessary strength of Ukrainian warriors.

The implementation of this point envisages further operations by the Defense Forces in designated areas of Russia, strengthening Ukrainian positions, and destroying Russia’s offensive potential in the occupied territories.

It is also based on the assistance of partners, in particular in equipping reserve brigades for the AFU, bolstering air defense, shooting down Russian drones and missiles jointly with partners, investing in Ukrainian defense production, lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons, providing appropriate long-range capabilities and real-time satellite and intelligence data.

“The defense point of the Plan has a secret annex – and it is accessible only to those partners who have the appropriate military assistance capabilities,” the President noted.

The third point is deterrence. Ukraine offers to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory, sufficient to protect the country from any military threat posed by Russia.

“The deterrence package is the fact that Russia is either going into diplomacy or going to lose its war machine. Peace through strength,” the Head of State emphasized.

This point also contains a secret annex, already shared with the U.S., the leaders of the UK, France, Italy, and Germany.

The fourth point is strategic economic potential. Ukraine offers its strategic partners a special agreement for the joint protection of the country’s critical resources, as well as joint investment and use of this economic potential.

This involves natural resources and critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars, including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and other strategically valuable resources, which are a significant advantage in global competition.

“The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with Ukraine’s globally important energy and food production potential, are among the key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war. And this is our opportunity for growth,” the President said.

This point also has a secret annex that is only shared with designated partners.

The fifth point is security-related. It is designed for the post-war period and involves, if partners agree, the replacement of certain U.S. military contingents stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units that have gained real experience in modern warfare, the use of Western weapons, and cooperation with NATO troops.

“This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the defense of the entire Alliance and ensure security in Europe. This is a worthy mission for our heroes,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded.

The secret annexes are, of course, secret.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s presentation of the Victory Plan to the Verkhovna Rada earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

May Our Collective Work Under the Victory Plan Result in Peace for Ukraine as Soon as Possible – Speech by the President in the Verkhovna Rada

16 October 2024 – 12:28

Glory to Ukraine!

Our people – in Ukraine, around the world – never tire of saying, “Glory to Ukraine.”

Ukraine never tires of responding, “Glory to the Heroes.”

But on our land, the words “Ukraine must win” have become less common.

For some, “victory” has become an uncomfortable word. Unfortunately. And in reality – we understand – victory is not easy to achieve.

But only victories bring glory to a country. And they allow us to preserve the true memory of heroes for centuries to come. And they give the country the ability to live. To live independently, to live freely, sovereignly, on its own land and by its own laws.

And to choose its own future. The future for Ukraine is, without a doubt, to be a strong part of the global world, to stand as equals with all leading nations, to be a full-fledged member of the European Union and NATO. It is only fair for us to be there. Glory to Ukraine!

Ukrainians deserve this.

And this is our goal – to win back Ukraine’s right to life. To secure the very justice for Ukraine. To end this war with a reliable and fair peace for all of us.

I thank everyone who is bringing us closer to achieving this goal – every warrior and all the citizens of Ukraine.

And it is for all of us – Ukrainians – that the Plan has been prepared – the Victory Plan.

Ukraine’s Victory Plan is a plan to strengthen our country, to strengthen our positions, so that we are strong enough to end the war, so that Ukraine has all the muscles.

This Plan can be implemented. It depends on our partners. I emphasize: on partners. It certainly does not depend on Russia.

Everyone in the world sees that Russia is not seeking an honest peace. Putin has gone mad and wants only war, he absolutely does. He himself will not change. He is too stuck in the past. Too far behind the times. He is deaf to everyone else.

But together we – Ukrainians, together with our partners, we must change the circumstances so that the war ends. Regardless of what Putin wants.

We all must change the circumstances so that Russia is forced into peace.

First, let’s recall that almost two years ago, at the G20 Summit in Indonesia, Ukraine proposed the Peace Formula. It is a strategy to end Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Ukrainians and restore justice for all our Ukrainian people based on the goals and principles of the UN Charter.

In two years, nearly 100 countries from all parts of the world have endorsed the Peace Formula.

I am grateful to each of these countries.

We held a successful inaugural Peace Summit and were able to prove that this negotiation format, it can be successful in the most important thing – in ending the war.

But Russia is still evading honest diplomacy, and alongside its bombs, it throws in ultimatums.

We must stop this.

No Russian ultimatum will have any meaning for all of us, nor will it have any meaning for Ukraine.

This is guaranteed by our warriors, all of our people, and our unity. The unity of Ukraine and the unity of our partners. All of this forms the foundation of our ability to achieve our just goal.

The Victory Plan is a path to strengthening Ukraine. This is exactly the kind of Ukraine’s strengthening that is needed not only to defend our Ukrainian positions but also to build a bridge – a bridge to the second Peace Summit, which will put a fair end to this war for Ukraine.

Today I want to publicly present this Plan for the first time. And I am addressing you for the sake of unity and support for Ukraine.

 

Dear Ukrainian people!

Mr. Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine!

Mr. Prime Minister!

Mr. General, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

Heads of our respected intelligence agencies, the Security Service of Ukraine, esteemed government officials, heads of all state institutions of Ukraine!

People’s deputies of Ukraine!

Ukrainian diplomats!

Representatives of our partner states, who are here today, ambassadors to Ukraine!

Everyone who is present today in this hall!

The urgency of the Victory Plan is now. These are points, most of which are thoroughly time-based.

If we begin following this idea, this concrete Victory Plan right now, it may be possible to end the war no later than next year.

All of us who feel the pain of war hear that names like Pokrovsk, Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, our Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, as well as Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, are not only about the fate of Ukraine.

But also, about the fate of other countries – the Baltic States. Finland. Countries that are our neighbors. The Balkans, countries of Central Asia, Georgia, Moldova.

And countries from other regions of the world that are far away from us in Ukraine, but very close to our partners – this includes Libya, Syria, and the countries of the Sahel region.

The battles in which Ukrainians are fighting now, right here in Ukraine, for their independence, are deciding whether the world will plunge into more wars.

Russia – and its accomplices – want more wars. And this is a fact.

They are learning. The more time they have to learn how to spread ruins, and only ruins, the more the world will inevitably pay later, unfortunately, for the right life, for the right to peace.

Right now, for our partners, helping Ukraine means ensuring that a rules-based order is maintained in the world.

If Russia’s war against Ukraine ends at a Peace Summit and on the basis of international law, it will deter other potential aggressors from starting other wars.

And if Putin achieves his insane goals – geopolitical, military, ideological, and economic – it will create an overwhelming impression among other potential aggressors, particularly in the Gulf region, the Indo-Pacific, and Africa, that wars of aggression could be beneficial for them as well.

This is why the fate of the coming decades is being decided by the actions of our global coalition in defense of Ukraine and international law.

For us, it is entirely legitimate to turn to our partners for support in this battle.

For our partners, it is completely practical to help us not only endure but also prevail in war for our lives. In doing so, they will help themselves just as much.

In the coalition of criminals alongside Putin, there is already North Korea – the Kim family, which holds more than twenty million Korean people in slavery.

Our intelligence documents not only the transfer of weapons from North Korea to Russia, but also the transfer of people.

These are workers for Russian factories, replacing Russian citizens killed in the war, and personnel for the Russian army. And this is already a fact.

In fact, this is now the participation of a second state in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia.

Everyone sees the Iranian regime’s support for Putin, as well as China’s cooperation with Russia.

Despite their statements, Beijing refrains from taking truly serious effective steps to stop Putin, to stop Russia’s aggression and violations of the UN Charter.

And we must speak honestly – Ukrainians and all our partners – if we do not significantly strengthen ourselves now, Putin will manage to significantly strengthen himself next year, to strengthen himself to the point where diplomacy will be permanently abandoned.

Russia must lose the war against Ukraine.

And this is not a “freeze.”

And it is not trading Ukraine’s territory or sovereignty.

We must implement the Victory Plan to force Russia to attend the Peace Summit and be willing to end the war.

So, the Plan consists of five points and three secret annexes.

The first point is geopolitical.

The second and third points – they are military.

The fourth point is economic.

The fifth point of the Victory Plan is security-related.

The points are scheduled over time. Very specifically. The first four are for wartime, to bring it to an end. The fifth point is for the post-war period, to guarantee security.

The first point is an invitation to NATO. Right now.

We are a democratic nation that has proven capable of defending the Euro-Atlantic region and our shared way of life – of other democratic nations.

For decades, Russia has exploited geopolitical uncertainty in Europe, specifically the fact that Ukraine is not a NATO member. And this is what tempted Russia to encroach on our security. And now, the fact that Ukraine is invited to join NATO could become truly fundamental for peace.

We understand that NATO membership is a matter for the future, not the present.

But Putin must see that his geopolitical calculations are failing.

The Russian people must feel this – that their “tsar” has lost geopolitically to the world.

And I want to thank all our partners who support the idea that an invitation for Ukraine to NATO now, with membership later, strengthens not just us, but strengthens all of us.

The invitation is a powerful decision that requires nothing but determination.

And today, the invitation symbolizes much more than just NATO.

For us, determination on the NATO issue for Ukraine also means the inevitability of European integration for Ukraine and the fact that there is no alternative to democracy in Ukraine.

And that is why this is the initial point of the Victory Plan. The first and very important. The sign of determination. This is what the invitation is. The unconditional invitation right now.

This means certainty about how our partners truly see the place of all of us, Ukraine’s place in the security architecture.

I urge all of you to work for the determination of our partners to recognize Ukraine as an equal in Europe’s security architecture.

The second point is defense.

This is an irreversible strengthening of Ukraine’s defense against the aggressor.

It is realistic to defend our positions on the battlefield while also ensuring that the war is brought back to Russia’s territory; so that Russians feel what war is, and despite Russian propaganda begin to turn their hatred against the Kremlin.

We are not naive. Ukraine does not and will not believe that the majority of Russians will truly realize the depth of their state’s moral decline.

But they must feel the decline of the Russian army.

And this will be the defeat of their war ideology.

There is a clear list of weapons that can support such strength of our warriors. And thanks to the Kursk operation, we have seen that Putin does not have enough forces to hold on when we push, and we push really hard.

Therefore, the keys to implementing this second point of the Victory Plan are:

• successful continuation of the operations of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine in the defined areas of the enemy’s territory in order to prevent buffer zones on our land;
• irreversible strengthening of the positions of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine and destruction of the Russian Federation’s offensive potential in the occupied territory of Ukraine;
• next is assistance from our partners in manning our reserve brigades for the Armed Forces of Ukraine;
• bringing Ukraine’s air defense system to a level sufficient, really sufficient, to protect our cities and villages from Russian missiles and enemy drones, and joint defense operations with our neighbors in Europe to shoot down Russian missiles and drones within the range of the partners’ air shields;
• as well as expanding operations involving our Ukrainian missiles and drones and investing in increasing their production in Ukraine;
• lifting our partner’s restrictions on the use of long-range weapons on all the territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia and on the territory of Russia – on enemy military infrastructure facilities, and providing Ukraine with appropriate long-range capabilities – missiles, drones and other means of destruction;
• providing Ukraine with real-time satellite data and data obtained through other intelligence means.

On each of the sub-points of our Victory Plan’s defense point, Ukraine provides partners with a clear justification, all the details – what exactly are our goals, how we are achieving them, and to what extent will this reduce Russia’s ability to continue this war.

The defense point of the Plan has a secret annex, and it is accessible only to those partners who have the appropriate military assistance capabilities.

The third point of the Victory Plan is a point called deterrence.

It also has a corresponding secret annex. The United States, the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and Germany have already received it.

It will also be received by some other states, which can fill this very well-known to the world concept of deterrence with content for Ukraine.

The Russian leadership acts aggressively only when it is convinced that it will not receive an adequate destructive response.

When Russia knows that the response will come, and understands what kind of response it will be, they choose negotiations and stable coexistence even with strategic adversaries. And we know these examples.

Thanks to this very point, deterring Russia from aggression is possible both in relation to Ukraine and in relation to Europe as a whole.

Ukraine offers to deploy a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory that will be sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat posed by Russia and that will limit, limit as much as possible, the variability of Russia’s actions to such prospects: either join an honest diplomatic process to bring the war to a just end, or certainly lose the ability to continue an aggressive war as a result of Ukraine’s use of the provided deterrence package, according to Russia’s defined military objectives.

In other words, the deterrence package is the fact that Russia is either going into diplomacy or going… to lose its war machine.

Peace through strength.

It works equally well on both sides of the Atlantic. And this point can be ensured, in particular, by means of funding, and these details have also been passed on, by means of funding within the framework of the security agreements already concluded with our partners and the defined volumes of financial support.

Point four – strategic economic potential.

Ukraine is rich in natural resources, including critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars. These include uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other strategic and strategically valuable resources that will strengthen either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world in global competition.

The deposits of critical resources in Ukraine, along with Ukraine’s globally important energy and food production potential, are among the key predatory objectives of the Russian Federation in this war.

And this is our opportunity for growth.

Economic growth of Ukrainians, of our entire state. Economic strengthening of the European Union – for the sake of Europe’s economic and, in many ways, security autonomy. And this is an opportunity for the United States and our partners in the G-7 to work with Ukraine – the ally that can provide a return on investment.

The economic point of our strategy has a secret annex, which is shared only with certain partners.

Ukraine offers the United States, together with selected partners, including the European Union, of which Ukraine will be a part, and other partners in the world who are our partners, to conclude a special agreement on joint protection of critical resources available in Ukraine, joint investment and use of the corresponding economic potential.

This is also peace through strength. Economic strength.

This is an agreement that will organically complement and strengthen the existing system of economic pressure on Russia, namely, all existing sanctions against the Russian Federation, oil price restrictions, export restrictions to Russia, and other pressure measures.

Russia’s allies in the world must realize, know, and see that this regime has no economic future.

And the fifth point. The fifth point is designed for the post-war period.

After this war, Ukraine will have one of the most experienced and largest military contingents. And these are people, real people – our warriors, who will have real experience of modern warfare, successful experience of using Western weapons and diverse experience of interaction, of course, with our partners, with NATO troops.

This Ukrainian experience should be used to strengthen the defense of the entire Alliance and ensure security in Europe.

This is a worthy mission for our heroes.

We envisage, if our partners agree, replacing certain military contingents of the United States Armed Forces stationed in Europe with Ukrainian units. After the war.

Ukrainians have proven that they can be the force that Russian evil cannot overcome.

And I am grateful to every partner. There are already many signals of support for this, they like this idea very much. Thank you. To everyone with whom we have discussed this perspective for the post-war period, I am grateful for your respect for Ukrainians and our ability to stand irresistibly in alliance with our partners.

 

Dear audience!

Dear Ukrainian people!

Ukraine’s partners, to whom this Plan has already been presented, have taken it very practically. Attentively. The teams are now focusing on the details to ensure effective support. The teams have begun their work.

Tomorrow, I will present the Victory Plan at a meeting of the European Council. Publicly. But it was very important for me to present it to all of you today.

However, I also want to be frank with you about how the situation is being handled today in some non-public, multi-format communications with Ukraine as well.

We hear the word “negotiations” from some of our partners, and the word “justice” is much less pronounced.

Ukraine, as I have stressed many times, is open to diplomacy, but to honest diplomacy in a strong position.

That is why we have the Peace Formula. It is a guarantee of negotiations without forcing Ukraine into injustice. Ukrainians deserve a decent peace.

The Victory Plan will pave the way for this. The Victory Plan is a guarantee that the madmen in the Kremlin will lose the ability to continue the war. That is why the Victory Plan is a bridge to the implementation of the Formula, to the implementation of the Summit, and to honest diplomacy.

But on this path, Ukraine must be strong. United. And conscious – conscious that Russia cannot let us go; it cannot let us go, but Russia can and must lose Ukraine.

Russia must permanently lose control over Ukraine and even the desire for such control. All these possibilities.

And at the same time, it’s a guarantee of peace for all of Europe.

To achieve this, I ask all of you to work, to serve Ukraine, to work toward unity within Ukraine and unity between Ukraine and its partners. Convince our partners. Be the ones who work tirelessly.

I thank each and every one of you who works in this way for the sake of Ukraine. Those who fight for Ukraine.

I thank everyone on whose shoulders Ukraine stands.

Sometimes, during war, society – there are historical examples of this – society becomes polarized. But it is through mutual respect and gratitude that society endures. Despite anything. Any challenges. Despite polarization.

We are not at war with each other.

We are at war with Russia. This is our enemy. We are at war with them on the battlefield, in international relations, in the economy, in the information sphere and in people’s hearts. They are the enemy. There are no enemies in Ukraine.

We have achieved and continue to achieve results in battles thanks to our unity.

So please, let’s not lose our unity.

Let’s work together. For the sake of Ukraine.

For the sake of Ukraine’s victory.

If we lose unity in Ukraine, we will definitely lose unity in Europe.

If we lose unity in Europe, we will definitely lose the support of the world. Everyone is watching us.

If we lose the support of the world, we will lose this war, as it was a century ago.

The Victory Plan, among other things, allows all of us in Ukraine to unite even more around a common goal.

And that is why I am addressing you now.

May our collective work overall under the Victory Plan result in peace for Ukraine as soon as possible.

I thank all of you, I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine!

I am proud of all our people.

I truly believe in Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

I wonder what those anonymous officials “not impressed” with Zelensky’s peace plan were expecting instead.

Did they expect some sort of The Sixth Sense plot twist?

Well, duh — the only way to ensure peace in Europe and prevent yet another catastrophic war is to undermine…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 16, 2024

I wonder what those anonymous officials “not impressed” with Zelensky’s peace plan were expecting instead.

Did they expect some sort of The Sixth Sense plot twist?

Well, duh — the only way to ensure peace in Europe and prevent yet another catastrophic war is to undermine Russia’s ability to fight the war at the present scale, admit Ukraine to NATO, help Ukraine develop itself as one of the continent’s leading military powers, and thus make Ukraine a target way too strong and dangerous for Russia.

Vladimir Putin is not listening to “the voice of reason,” he doesn’t want “just peace,” and he’s not impressed with your “compromises” that only make Ukraine more vulnerable and encourage him to escalate his aggression against the weak.

We had a much more reliable way to a universal and lasting peace via helping Ukraine inflict a sound military defeat on Russia, but we decided to give Putin two years to recover, launch his war machine, adapt his economy, and find dictatorial allies, so we deal with what we have.

Zelenskyy’s peace plan is exactly what everyone expected: a list of steps that, if done timely and correctly, could steer us in the right direction.
However, being entirely dependent on Western political will, presented amidst declining support, the cancellation of the Rammstein…

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 16, 2024

Zelenskyy’s peace plan is exactly what everyone expected: a list of steps that, if done timely and correctly, could steer us in the right direction.
However, being entirely dependent on Western political will, presented amidst declining support, the cancellation of the Rammstein meeting, and the refusal to lift restrictions despite the clear cost in blood, leaves me doubtful that those steps will be taken.

For the first time, Zelensky defines Ukraine’s victory as a guarantee that Kremlin loses its ability to sustain the war. This new perspective marks an important shift in Ukraine’s strategy and determination to end the war pic.twitter.com/iYLpNE3B82

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 16, 2024

Pausing my vacation briefly to share some brief thoughts about and summary of Zelensky’s “victory plan” which he unveiled today in Kyiv and argued that, if realized, could end Russia’s war next year.

Like his “peace plan” it’s less a roadmap with clear implementation than it is…

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 16, 2024

Pausing my vacation briefly to share some brief thoughts about and summary of Zelensky’s “victory plan” which he unveiled today in Kyiv and argued that, if realized, could end Russia’s war next year.

Like his “peace plan” it’s less a roadmap with clear implementation than it is a wish list, which is why Western partners were not very impressed when presented recently in Washington and EU capitals. Even many Ukrainian MPs, troops and members of civil society expressed disappointment, as the plan’s success hinges almost entirely on the West fully buying into it – and immediately. Zelensky said this himself today: “This plan can be implemented. It depends on our partners. I emphasize: on partners.” Unfortunately, not every Western partner is ready, willing or able to provide everything that Kyiv is asking for in the plan. The plan doesn’t address challenges in Ukraine that many believe could be done without or with less foreign support and would help their position. Many Ukrainians wanted to hear from the president today what their role in the plan is.

The victory plan has 5 points, which we have mostly known about prior to today.
1. Unconditional NATO invitation now
2. Defense: strengthening Ukraine’s military by streaming in new weapons; lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons; real-time satellite and intel data
3. Deterrence: a secret “a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package” that’s been shared with US, UK, France, Italy, & Germany.
4. Strategic economic potential: ‘joint protection of Ukraine’s critical resources, as well as joint investment and use of this economic potential’ (“This involves natural resources and critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars, including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite.”
5. European security: post-war, Ukraine military could station experienced troops in Europe

Important to note amid the talks and reporting about potential future negotiations: Zelensky said he does not want to “freeze” the war. And Ukraine is “not trading Ukraine’s territory or sovereignty” to bring Russia’s invasion to an end.

Besides hinging on a significant increase in Western support, there are several factors that may impact the plan, including how the wars in the Middle East develop, and the US elections next month.

Here is the president’s full text of the plan he presented to parliament today:
https://president.gov.ua/en/news/plan-peremogi-skladayetsya-z-pyati-punktiv-i-troh-tayemnih-d-93857

And Zelensky’s speech to parliament: https://president.gov.ua/en/news/haj-nasha-spilna-robota-za-planom-peremogi-yaknajshvidshe-ob-93849

When I said, “The plan doesn’t address challenges in Ukraine that many believe could be done without or with less foreign support and would help their position. Many Ukrainians wanted to hear from the president today what their role in the plan is.” this is what I meant: https://t.co/0jLnMuaHxA

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 16, 2024

Here’s Tatarigami’s take:

President Zelensky has released his plan for victory, which has been met with varying degrees of acceptance. Regardless of differing opinions, we now have a clearer picture of what the President is aiming for.

I don’t intend to criticize his plan – after all, it offers some…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 16, 2024

President Zelensky has released his plan for victory, which has been met with varying degrees of acceptance. Regardless of differing opinions, we now have a clearer picture of what the President is aiming for.

I don’t intend to criticize his plan – after all, it offers some viable options that could benefit Ukraine if implemented. However, given my own skepticism about the West’s willingness to admit Ukraine into NATO, I’ve been considering my own “roadmap,” which I’d like to share here. This is not intended as a critique of the current plan by our leader, but rather a personal take offered for entertainment purposes:

The core of the strategy should focus on achieving superiority in several key areas: industrial, technological, command structure, and troop morale. The goal is to make the war increasingly unviable and futile for Russia, thereby forcing an end to the war on terms favorable to Ukraine and its partners. At the very least, this should put Ukraine in a position to negotiate with Russia on equal terms when the time comes.

A key step toward this is the creation of a joint military-industrial complex, integrating Ukraine into the West not as a dependent neighbor seeking aid, but as a critical player in Europe’s military production and technology sectors. Specifically, Ukraine could become a hub for military production, especially in areas like unmanned vehicles, which are becoming increasingly vital in global defense, particularly for Europe, whose military-industrial base remains somewhat dormant.

Let’s take a look at it more specifically:

External policies:

1. Defense Production Agreements

Ukraine, alongside European nations, the U.S., and potentially Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Australia, should create a series of bilateral defense production agreements. These agreements would establish joint military production facilities for various arms and munitions, from IFVs (Infantry Fighting Vehicles) to drones, missiles, mortars, and artillery ammunition. The construction of these facilities could be financed on credit, with the expectation that frozen Russian assets or future profits from arms sales would pay off the debt. Placing these facilities in Europe would boost local employment and stimulate regional production, with a percentage of output allocated to the host countries.

2. Missile Production Joint Venture

Ukraine’s Pivdenmash plant was a critical hub in the Soviet missile program, producing everything from tactical to intercontinental ballistic missiles. A joint venture between Ukraine and a country like France or the UK would enable faster development and larger-scale production of Ukrainian missiles. Final assembly could occur within Ukraine, and the missiles’ performance could be tested against common Russian defense systems like the S-300 and S-400, giving them market value.
This would also allow Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia without needing permission from other nations, as the missiles would be domestically produced. If Iran can manufacture hundreds of ballistic missiles, so can Ukraine with the right partnerships.

3. Echeloned Defense Construction

Ukraine should launch a national program to construct high-quality defensive positions, drawing on real battlefield expertise rather than arbitrary lines on a map, which has led to wasteful efforts near areas like Pokrovsk and Kharkiv. This could involve both domestic equipment and machinery leased from the EU, with costs partially covered by Ukraine and the remainder distributed among Western partners.
Japan, which may be hesitant to provide direct military aid but leads in construction machinery, could participate by leasing equipment to Ukraine. A model where Ukraine pays 50% on credit and the rest is covered by Japanese foreign aid could be workable, or at least can be a subject of negotiations between countries.

4. Re-arming Existing Brigades

The Ukrainian General Staff has been horrible in forming new brigades, many of which underperform despite receiving new weapons. Simply handing modern weapons to an inexperienced, uncohesive unit doesn’t work. Aid should be conditional, directed to re-arming existing brigades rather than creating new ones. It’s reached a point where some mechanized brigades only have a handful of functional tanks and IFVs, with the rest even using civilian vehicles due to equipment shortages.

5. Interim Military Aid

While Ukraine builds its defense production capacity with the West, it should receive increased short-term aid in the form of artillery, IFVs, mortars, and air-defense systems. Scaling up local initiatives, such as the drone-based air-defense system, like the one led by Ukrainian activist Sternenko, can help shoot down Russian reconnaissance drones more cost-effectively. This isn’t about liberating Crimea right away but maintaining a solid defense while other strategic objectives are pursued.

Internal policies:

1. De-Sovietization of the Military

Ukraine must overhaul its military’s command and control system, moving away from the Soviet-style top-down hierarchy that stifles initiative. While NATO is also bureaucratic, an external audit could streamline many of Ukraine’s military processes, allowing for more decentralized and responsive decision-making. The practice of high-ranking officials personally directing tactical battlefield operations should end.

2. New Mobilization and Rotation Plan

A new mobilization approach is needed, with planned troop rotations and the ability for soldiers to leave after one year of service. While an immediate mass release isn’t feasible, as it could collapse the frontlines, gradual waves of demobilization can be managed. Those required to serve longer should receive additional compensation. Ukraine should secure deals with Europe and the U.S. to train battalions of these brigades abroad, as was done in 2022-2023 with new brigades. However, training programs must be adjusted to reflect the realities of the war, with Ukrainian instructors providing input alongside NATO standards.

3. Anti-Corruption Measures in Recruitment

The West will not continue its support if Ukraine cannot address the rampant corruption in its military recruitment centers, where those with money and connections can avoid the draft. This has led to an army made up disproportionately of poorer citizens. Ukrainians are increasingly unwilling to serve as cannon fodder in senseless operations, often directed by Soviet-minded commanders who prioritize saving face over soldiers’ lives. Ukraine cannot afford to treat its troops the way Russia does. Ukraine should also focus on refitting existing brigades, rather than filling numerous new units, creating an artificial shortage of manpower on frontlines.

4. Veteran Support Program

While there are efforts to care for wounded veterans, much of this is reliant on private funds, personal connections, and public initiatives. Care quality varies, and some severely injured veterans are left with little government support. Ukraine must implement a much better national program to accommodate the needs of disabled veterans, including making cities more accessible for wheelchair users. The current situation is dire, with some disabled veterans having trouble even leaving their homes. Ukraine can have a joint program with countries that have experience, like the U.S., which has developed extensive systems to support disabled veterans. Proper psychiatric and PTSD care is also crucial. Since this is a humanitarian area, the financing can be located among countries which are willing to help, but are not willing to provide military aid. Just like with previous cases, the cost can be partially covered by Ukraine through frozen Russian funds or even in debt or private funding initiatives. If we want to fix recruitment, we need to show that we care about those who served.

Exit Strategy

If Ukraine can consistently exhaust Russia and strike its facilities with drones and missiles, Russia’s ability to terrorize Ukrainian cities and infrastructure will diminish. Any attack would be met with a counterstrike, making such tactics less appealing for Russia. As Ukraine improves its defense and Russia’s advances become costlier, the economic and military calculus will increasingly favor Ukraine. When negotiations eventually take place, Ukraine must secure security guarantees akin to NATO membership, likely with the U.S. or a coalition of European countries. While NATO membership is preferable, it could face obstacles from countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and even maybe Germany with Turkey, and may not happen in the near future. This approach would allow Russia to claim it stopped NATO’s expansion in Ukraine, while Ukraine secures a protective alliance.

This plan may have its flaws and inaccuracies – after all, it’s just a brief roadmap written for entertainment purposes. However, it outlines a potential path for Ukraine to secure a viable exit strategy from the war, while facilitating its integration into the West and the European Union. By doing so, Ukraine could become a valuable and fully integrated member of the Western economic and security framework.

NATO:

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has said he cannot say that he supports “the whole” of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s victory plan that the Ukrainian president laid out to his parliament on Wednesday. via @HenryJFoy @FT live news: https://t.co/cGMHQQZQ3V https://t.co/abwe5x8DOP pic.twitter.com/IEFNA32k4C

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 16, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte has said he cannot say that he supports “the whole” of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s victory plan that the Ukrainian president laid out to his parliament on Wednesday.

“I will not comment on every element in the plan, but it is of course a strong signal from Zelenskyy and his team that they designed this plan that they are now taking it forward,” Rutte told reporters.

“That doesn’t mean that I here can say I support the whole plan, that would be a bit difficult because there are many issues of course that we have to understand better.”

Here’s Australian Major General (ret) Mick Ryan’s take on the plan:

President Zelenskyy has presented his Victory Plan to the Ukrainian parliament. It has 5 elements: Ukraine to join NATO; defense, including long-range strikes; deterring Russian aggression; economic development; and, and post-war security structures. 1/5 🧵 🇺🇦
kyivindependent.com/zelensky-victo…

Zelensky unveils Ukraine’s victory plan, says it’s doable but ‘depends on our partners’President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine’s much-debated victory plan at parliament on Oct. 16, though some parts remained classified. The proposal is comprised of five points: an invitation to …https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-victory-plan/

2/ Apparently there are also three classified elements of the Victory Plan. These will be briefed separately to lawmakers. They were probably briefed to foreign leaders during Zelenskyy’s recent trip to the UK, France, Italy and Germany. 

3/ Zelenskyy has also been invited to present his Victory Plan at an EU summit this week.

Ukraine’s Zelensky Invited to Present ‘Victory Plan’ at EU SummitMilitary support to Kyiv and strengthening Ukraine’s battered energy sector are among the topics on the table as leaders from the EU’s 27 nations meet in Brussels on Thursday.https://www.kyivpost.com/post/40589

4/ I recently explored what theories of victory are, and what a Ukrainian Victory Plan might need to achieve. You can read that article here: mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-vic…

Ukraine’s Victory PlanWhy theories of victory matter and what Ukraine’s victory plan needs to achievehttps://mickryan.substack.com/p/ukraines-victory-plan

5/ This is just a first look at the plan. I am sure more details will follow. However, releasing a plan is only the first step in a larger process. Now, Zelenskyy needs to get ‘buy in’ from key supporters like the U.S., Germany and other European nations. And, Ukraine needs a greater quantity of aid, more quickly. End 

And both Euan MacDonald’s and Gary Kasparov’s reaction to MG Ryan’s take:

It’s that simple. The question to Biden, Scholz, et al: Why are China, North Korea, and Iran more loyal and effective allies to invader Russia than the US and (most) NATO nations are to Ukraine? Especially when the consequences for losing are far more severe for the West? https://t.co/OKUuCDcRff

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 16, 2024

The US:

President Zelenskyy also spoke with President Biden today:

I spoke with @POTUS Joe Biden and thanked the United States for its unwavering support since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

President Biden’s leadership in uniting the world and America’s strong bipartisan support have been crucial in helping Ukraine stand firm… pic.twitter.com/fJvyi3EWDz

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 16, 2024

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The US announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $425 million.

This package includes additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions.

We are grateful to our American partners for their unwavering… pic.twitter.com/6hMxQsExaG

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 16, 2024

I spoke with @POTUS Joe Biden and thanked the United States for its unwavering support since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

President Biden’s leadership in uniting the world and America’s strong bipartisan support have been crucial in helping Ukraine stand firm and defend our independence.

I am grateful to President Biden, both parties in Congress, and the American people for the $425 million defense package announced today, which includes new air defense systems and long-range weapons.

I offered to explore ways to enhance our cooperation in producing weapons together. We also talked about the importance of additional training for Ukrainian warriors.

We paid special attention to the upcoming online meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. I informed President Biden about my address to the Ukrainian Parliament today, where the Victory Plan received strong support from all parliamentary parties and groups. Tomorrow, I will present it to our EU partners at the European Council meeting.

We are continuing to work with partners to put the Peace Formula into action. We are grateful to the U.S. for its commitment to helping Ukraine strengthen its positions in order to force Russia into good faith diplomacy.

Here’s the White House readout of the Biden-Zelensky call: “President Biden updated President Zelenskyy on his efforts to surge security assistance to Ukraine over the remainder of his term in office.”

“…in November 2024, President Biden will host a virtual leader-level… pic.twitter.com/WQfcD3MRXb

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 16, 2024

Here’s the White House readout of the Biden-Zelensky call: “President Biden updated President Zelenskyy on his efforts to surge security assistance to Ukraine over the remainder of his term in office.”

“…in November 2024, President Biden will host a virtual leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group…”

🇺🇸🇺🇦 The US announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $425 million.

This package includes additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions.

We are grateful to our American partners for their unwavering support. Together, we will win!

Advance Australia Fair!

+49 M1A1 Abrams tanks coming from 🇦🇺Australia.

One more step towards the light through the dark.

Thank you, dear Australians.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 16, 2024

Germany:

Serious talks about peace will start only when it will be Putin calling other leaders, forced to do it, not the other way round https://t.co/jQHi7cKWtH

— Daniel Szeligowski (@dszeligowski) October 16, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told lawmakers in Berlin on Oct. 16 that he is willing to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin about a “just peace” in Ukraine.

Scholz emphasized that he would speak to Putin “if asked” but stressed that no decisions would be made without the input of Ukraine or other Western allies.

In recent weeks, German media have reported on an increased openness from Scholz to speak to Putin about an end to the full-scale war in Ukraine. The two leaders have not spoken since December 2022, the same year the leaders of the U.S., France, and the U.K. last had direct contact.

Earlier in October, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Moscow had not received a proposal for Scholz and Putin to talk.

The statement came two days after German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that Putin is not willing to speak with Scholz about brokering peace in Ukraine.

“He refuses to accept peace and every day sends another signal in favor of war and destruction. These days, he is no longer even prepared to speak to (Scholz) on the phone,” the German foreign minister said.

It is unclear if any developments regarding a potential conversation between Scholz and Putin have happened since Baerbock and Peskov’s comments.

US divided and inward-looking, France and Germany scaling down military support for Ukraine — the West’s weakness is encouraging Russia to keep up the fight. The mid-term risk of a broader confrontation with Russia is going up, not down.

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) October 16, 2024

The DPRK:

IMHO, rumors in the media space about thousands or even tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers sent to fight against Ukraine were instigated by Russia on purpose.

This doesn’t mean the Kim regime is not effectively involved in the war on the Russian side. It sends Russia…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 16, 2024

IMHO, rumors in the media space about thousands or even tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers sent to fight against Ukraine were instigated by Russia on purpose.

This doesn’t mean the Kim regime is not effectively involved in the war on the Russian side. It sends Russia large quantities of artillery munitions, missiles, etc.

It’s totally believable and realistic that Kim gave Russia some military engineers, workers, and personnel to maintain ballistic missiles and provide training. In fact, this is certainly happening, and Ukraine has to fight against the joint effort of the dictatorial Axis of Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang.

But I will only believe Kim is sending his battalions and divisions to die for Russia when we clearly see them in the war zone.

So far, this (along with the Kremlin’s enhanced military cooperation treaty with Kim) looks much more like yet another attempt to raise the stakes in the eyes of Western decision-makers and send a message into their heads: Putin is insane, he is unstoppable, and is ready to move heaven and earth, to escalate, globalize, and brutalize this war infinitely, anything and everything for the sake of his hateful obsession with exterminating Ukraine, and there’s no way to stop him without a global war – so leaders must immediately switch to begging Putin for peace and offer him “compromises” on Ukraine “before it’s too late.”

Like we’ve said a million times, Putin makes a bet on the West being cowardly, shortsighted, and weak enough to throw Ukraine under the bus for the sake of false and deceptive comfort of “peace in our time” via appeasement.

The Kursk cross border offensive:

During a Russian attack on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, a Russian BTR with infantry approaches a Ukrainian tank and receives a point-blank tank shot.https://t.co/VtOEC3Rdnm pic.twitter.com/grconBIqXv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 16, 2024

/3. Ukrainian drone operators, which are informing the ground forces, reacting to the Ukrainian tank shot on Russian BTR-82. pic.twitter.com/onVi40c67H

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 16, 2024

Kherson:

#Kherson #DroneAttacks

My very close friend was just attacked by a Russian drone. He is injured; his car is destroyed.

This is very hard to report but he is alive and that’s what matters.

But how many injured and killed before we as the world stop #HumanSafari? pic.twitter.com/Xz0EjP98Wg

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 15, 2024

For you Dragon’s Teeth afficionado’s:

The mystery with the dragon’s teeth in the occupied territories is gaining momentum. Over two days, instances of these contraptions being placed on roads used by Russian military vehicles have only increased, appearing not only in the Kursk region.

Dmitry Rogozin posted a photo… https://t.co/N12eL0e4uy pic.twitter.com/qG7QKeUGsB

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 16, 2024

The mystery with the dragon’s teeth in the occupied territories is gaining momentum. Over two days, instances of these contraptions being placed on roads used by Russian military vehicles have only increased, appearing not only in the Kursk region.

Dmitry Rogozin posted a photo stating ‘this is the road to Crimea, the section between the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions,’ 170 kilometers from the front line.

He also added: ‘The red stripes that mark such concrete blocks at checkpoints, as you can see, are absent. The reflective sign warning of deadly danger is also missing.’

Russians have no idea who places the dragon’s teeth: ‘What is this? Who left it here? With what intentions?

Naturally, the vehicle is a write-off. The passengers sustained minor injuries only because the driver sharply reduced speed just before the impact.’

Earlier, channels reported dozens of people who died or were seriously injured by these devices.

Moscow Oblast, Russia:

Deputy commander of the Special Operations Forces Training Center of the Russian Armed Forces, Colonel Nikita Klenko, was shot dead in the Moscow region.

Klenkov was shot 20 minutes away from the Special Operations Forces Training Center. A week ago, Klenkov returned from… pic.twitter.com/rdoWiXtUL8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 16, 2024

Deputy commander of the Special Operations Forces Training Center of the Russian Armed Forces, Colonel Nikita Klenko, was shot dead in the Moscow region.

Klenkov was shot 20 minutes away from the Special Operations Forces Training Center. A week ago, Klenkov returned from Ukraine.

On October 16, at about 9 a.m., an unknown person, while Klenkov was in a car on a dirt road in the village of Melenki, fired a series of shots into the side window of the driver’s door of the car. As a result, the Klenkov died on the spot, eight bullets were fired into him.

That’s enough for tonight.

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