
(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie, as well as Ruby, seem to be doing fine and settling back into their routines. Right now they’re both racked out on the bed with me as I sit here typing up the update.
Second, I’m still recovering from the fun and games of the past two weeks. I’m just going to run through the basics again tonight so I can rack out.
The Cost & the Reason:
95 more Ukrainian POWs have been returned!
Leaving no one behind. pic.twitter.com/MxVKDBkzEW
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 18, 2024
We now have visual confirmation of North Korean troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine:
North Korea has just effectively declared war on Ukraine, a European nation already fighting for its survival against a fascist empire.
This is ALREADY a world war. Europe and the US must finally acknowledge this fact and act accordingly. https://t.co/0oQtE7Ofro— Slava Malamud 🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@SlavaMalamud) October 18, 2024
10 escalation management points out of 10 possible 👌👌👌👌
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 18, 2024
Holy shit, why wasn’t everyone saying that giving Vladimir Putin two years to recover, adapt to a total war, unfold his wartime economy and military production, and find allies among dictatorial regimes was a bad idea?!
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 18, 2024

From Politico Europe:
South Korea’s president warned Friday that North Korea’s involvement in the war in Ukraine poses a “grave security threat” to the world.
President Yoon Suk Yeol held a security meeting Friday with key intelligence, military and national security officials to discuss Pyongyang’s participation in Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s offensive against Ukraine.
According to the presidential office, the participants “shared the view that the current situation, in which the close military ties between Russia and North Korea have expanded beyond the movement of military supplies to the actual deployment of troops, poses a grave security threat” to South Korea and the international community.
South Korea’s spy agency said Friday it believes North Korea has already begun deploying four brigades totaling 12,000 troops, including special forces, to the war in Ukraine.
Separately, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate also shared the agency’s assessment that there are now nearly 11,000 North Korean infantry troops training in Russia to fight in Ukraine. “They will be ready on Nov. 1,” Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told The War Zone.
The North Korean troops will use Russian equipment and ammunition, Budanov said. The first cadre of 2,600 troops will go to Kursk inside Russia where Ukraine began a surprise incursion in the late summer, but it is unclear where the remaining North Korean troops will be posted, he added.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Are Developing Our Victory Plan in Communication with Our Partners; Additionally, Work is Underway to Prepare the Second Peace Summit – Address by the President
18 October 2024 – 18:34
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I am already in Kyiv.
We are working on the results of our negotiations, which include meetings in Europe and discussions with our partners. There was a conversation with President Biden. We are preparing for meetings in Ukraine with the American team of political and military representatives. Earlier, our representatives – the Chief of the General Staff and Deputy Prime Minister Stefanishyna – were in Washington. Minister of Defense Umerov, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sybiha, and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi are working with their counterparts in Europe. We are developing our Victory Plan in communication with our partners. Additionally, work is underway to prepare the second Peace Summit – good faith diplomacy. We need to end the war in a way that guarantees security and peace for Ukrainians and all of Ukraine. Relevant meetings will be held by the Head of my Office Yermak and Prime Minister of Ukraine Shmyhal. I am grateful to every leader and every state that has embraced our arguments on security and is ready to help in ways that can steer the current situation toward peace.
Today, there was also a report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. It was about the front. It was about our directions. It was about the Kursk Operation. We are defending our positions.
A meeting was held regarding the railway operation in Ukraine. I am grateful to everyone who works for the company. Right now, Ukrzaliznytsia is holding our country up in many respects. Today, Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov also delivered a report – we have some good results. And this is what matters most for Ukraine – having daily, weekly results for our state and people. Having constant new support for our defense. And having more opportunities to bring peace closer. Ukraine must be a leader in any situation – offering solutions, suggesting paths, and directing work so that every partner benefits from cooperation with Ukraine.
And one more thing.
Today, I would like to thank our Ukrainian law enforcement officers, particularly the National Police, everyone who works to ensure law and order in Ukraine. Almost every week, they achieve results in fighting crime. Recently, I received a report on one such operation – the police worked from June to October. 19 drug laboratories were eliminated. The turnover was almost UAH 350 million per month. This was significant, interregional criminal activity. The same goes for countering arms trafficking, illegal arms trafficking, and protecting our people from other forms of crime. It is very important that institutions work to ensure internal security in Ukraine. And I thank all those who are truly professional in this.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also presented housing certificates to the families of Ukrainian veterans, as well as the families of those who have fallen in service to Ukraine today. Here’s the video of the presentation.
He also sat for an interview on the UnitedNews telethon:
💥Volodymyr Zelenskyy interview💥
Ukraine’s president tells me a Nato invitation for Kyiv is “the only way” it can survive Russia’s invasion and stop the war, as he called on western allies to rally behind his five-point ‘Victory Plan’
— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) October 18, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said a formal invitation to join Nato is “the only way” Ukraine can survive Russia’s invasion, as the Ukrainian president urged western allies to endorse his plan to end the war.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine joining the US-led military alliance — the first of five steps in his “victory plan” — was essential in bringing Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
“We cannot be very strong without having an invitation [which] strengthens our diplomatic ways to end the war,” he told the Financial Times. “This war will finish when Putin will be isolated, and pushed by other partners to diplomacy.”
While all Nato members have agreed that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to membership, the US and Germany have been opposed to formally inviting Kyiv to join for fear of escalating the conflict with Russia. Some officials have also privately speculated that Nato accession could be used as a bargaining chip in any negotiations with Moscow.
“The invitation to Nato will raise up the morale of our people and our soldiers,” Zelenskyy said. “Invitation means one more step to Nato, which means their children will not die. Never, because we will be a member of Nato. If we will not get a Nato invitation, morale will decrease.”
Zelenskyy compared the debate to previous discussions over providing Patriot missile systems or F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, where western capitals initially refused, only to slowly come around and agree.
“The reaction to the victory plan is exactly the same as to Patriots, F-16s . . . But we have to do it. This is the only way we can survive,” he said. “The war will not finish until Putin feels like he has to finish. And he only understands power.”
“This depends not on Russia, but the will of our partners. Most are on our side. But we must pressurise others,” he added.
Zelenskyy admitted that the outcome of the US presidential election next month was critical for his country’s future and his Nato ambitions. Vice-president and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has said she would weigh up Nato membership in the future, while former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump has criticised US military aid to Kyiv and said he would settle the conflict as soon as he was elected.
“I don’t know what the offer will be to us after the [US] election,” Zelenskyy said. “We can see three different ways forward.”
One was continued support but with allies still “afraid of some risks”. Depending on who wins the race for the White House, “we see [two] other ways. Will it be more positive? Or less positive? Honestly, I don’t know. And this is very sensitive for our people.”
The Ukrainian president said western officials floating an arrangement where Kyiv trades Russian-occupied territory for Nato membership had not consulted him.
“People never said this [to us]. People are afraid to tell [me],” he said, urging these officials to “put it on the table, openly to us. Not through some third party. Speak with us.”
More at the link.
The butcher’s bill from last night’s drone swarm attack:
Tonight, Russia launched 135 Shahed drones at the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine. Our air defense intercepted 80 of them. pic.twitter.com/LMi5bhWYoE
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 18, 2024
Denmark:
Denmark announced DKK 2,4 billion ($350 million) of military support for Ukraine.
This is Denmark’s twenty-first military donation package, which includes new acquisitions of equipment for Ukraine, additional funds for the Industrial pool, and donations of equipment from the… pic.twitter.com/6F5R3PUU8o
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 18, 2024
Denmark announced DKK 2,4 billion ($350 million) of military support for Ukraine.
This is Denmark’s twenty-first military donation package, which includes new acquisitions of equipment for Ukraine, additional funds for the Industrial pool, and donations of equipment from the Defense’s stock.
We are grateful to our Danish friends for their ironclad support!
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰
@Forsvarsmin @troelslundp
Germany:
Germany provided a new military aid package for Ukraine. We are grateful to our German friends for their unwavering support in our fight against russian invaders.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪The package includes:
◾️8 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks
◾️20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles… pic.twitter.com/oAqp3TX6D7— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 18, 2024
Germany provided a new military aid package for Ukraine. We are grateful to our German friends for their unwavering support in our fight against russian invaders.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪The package includes:
◾️8 Leopard 1 A5 main battle tanks
◾️20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles
◾️Ammunition for Leopard 2
◾️Ammunition for Leopard 1
◾️Ammunition for Marder
◾️4 MRAPs
◾️1 IRIS-T SLM air defense system
◾️1 IRIS-T SLS air defense system
◾️IRIS-T SLM missiles
◾️Sea Sparrow missiles
◾️6 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers
◾️24,000 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️30 Vector reconnaissance drones
◾️1 Beaver bridge-laying tank
◾️2 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️100 H-PEMBS portable mine clearing systems
◾️90 mine detectors
◾️1 mine ploughs
◾️2 mobile antenna mast systems
◾️57 laser range finders
◾️3,000 RGW 90 man-portable anti-tank weapons
◾️25,000 rounds ammunition 40mm
◾️75,000 tourniquets
◾️150,000 chest seals
◾️460 MK 556 assault rifles
◾️90 HLR 338 precision rifles
◾️30 CR 308 rifles
◾️3,000 SFP9 pistolsVielen Dank!
@BMVg_Bundeswehr
Canada:
The Prime Minister of Canada says under oath that RT, which the U.S. State Department alleges is engaged in “information operations, covert influence, and military procurement,” is funding Jordan Peterson and Tucker Carlson. https://t.co/9mYUmCFBfI
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) October 17, 2024
Hungary:
We DID learn from what Viktor Orbán has done to Hungary.
We learned that if wannabe dictators like Orbán and Trump lose power and then regain it, they disrupt, dismantle and eventually destroy democracy to ensure they won’t ever have to face another fair election. https://t.co/45JRYaG180
— Eleni Kounalakis (@EleniForCA) October 18, 2024
More on the North Korean developments:
North Korea is aiding Russian aggression against Ukraine with weapons and personnel. Not mercenaries. Regular units, which Moscow plans to use as cannon fodder. The Euro-Atlantic community must wake up to the fact that DPRK invades Europe alongside Russia and act without delay.
— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) October 18, 2024
Russia scales up its war. In response, alies must scale up military support for Ukraine. Lift restrictions on long-range strikes. Start intercepting Russian missiles and drones over Ukraine. Extend invitation to NATO. Boost investment in Ukraine’s arms manufacturing. Take action!
— Andrii Sybiha 🇺🇦 (@andrii_sybiha) October 18, 2024
Tatarigami has an interesting take on the North Korean news:
According to Yonhap news agency, North Korea has sent 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, per their source in South Korea’s Intelligence. This aligns with an earlier statement from Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR).
If accurate, this…
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2024
According to Yonhap news agency, North Korea has sent 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, per their source in South Korea’s Intelligence. This aligns with an earlier statement from Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR).
If accurate, this means nearly a corps-sized force from North Korea is aiding Russia in its invasion of a European country.
Meanwhile, on October 16, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed his willingness to discuss a “just peace” in Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This not only appears weak but also reinforces Putin’s belief that Western leadership is too divided and fragile to sustain a united front for the long haul.
After all, both Europe and the U.S. have poured substantial resources into this war, depleting their weapon and ammunition stocks. From Russia’s perspective, its successes on the battlefield aren’t just victories over Ukraine but over the combined economies and production capacities of the West.Some may argue that Russia turning to North Korea shows how desperate its situation is. Perhaps it does, but the fact remains: Russia is finding new sources of manpower.
And who is stepping up for Ukraine? While Russia pulls in thousands of troops from North Korea, Ukraine is asked to mobilize its smallest demographic, sacrificing its future, while Western nations debate whether they should contribute even a fraction of their GDP.
U.S. foreign policy is somewhat paralyzed by the upcoming elections, and much of Europe remains inactive, ignoring the fact that North Korean soldiers are about to fight in a European war.
They rationalize it away – it’s not an EU country, not a NATO member, not our problem.
French President Macron once talked about sending troops to Ukraine, but it never moved beyond words. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un made no announcements – he simply sent a corps-sized force to help Russia.
China is watching. Iran is watching. The Global South is watching. And what do they see? They see a U.S. too focused on internal political discord and even a failure protect its own interests in the Strait of Aden, despite being the world’s sole naval guarantor of secure trade. I am not even talking about Europe which is even more interested in that. At the same time, European leaders like Scholz are pursuing peace with Putin out of a reluctance to stand for their values or security interests
If you can’t see how this weakness will reshape the global security landscape, and if North Korean soldiers in Europe aren’t enough of a wake-up call, then I doubt anything will make the West to act, even to protect itself.
Small note: Some have noted it’s a division-sized force, and that’s true per textbooks. I referred to a corps because current theater brigades range 2,000 – 8,000 troops, or 2-6 brigades. With 6 brigades, it’s closer to a corps. That said, a division is more correct for reporting
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 18, 2024
Special Kherson Cat went through the ROK’s National Intelligence Service’s (NIS) release. Here’s the good stuff:
/1. South Korean National Intelligence Service about the transportation of North Korean troops and weapons to Russia.
“According to the National Intelligence Service of South Korea, four landing ships and three escort ships belonging to the Russian Pacific Fleet completed the first transport of approximately 1,500 North Korean special forces from the areas near Chongjin, Hamhung, and Musudan (Attachment 1) to Vladivostok, Russia during the same period, and a second transport operation is scheduled to take place soon.
This is the first time that the Russian Navy has entered North Korean waters since 1990. In addition, large transport aircraft such as the AN-124 of the Russian Air Force are frequently flying between Vladivostok and Pyongyang.
The North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia are currently stationed at Russian military bases in the Far East, including Vladivostok, Ussuriysk (Appendix 2), Khabarovsk (Appendix 3), and Blagoveshchensk, and are expected to be deployed to the front lines as soon as they complete their adaptation training.
Also, considering the size of containers loaded on cargo ships traveling between North Korea and Russia, it appears that more than 8 million rounds of 122mm and 152mm shells have been provided to Russia so far.”
Full official report by South Korean National Intelligence Service:nis.go.kr/CM/1_4/view.do…
/2. (Attachment 1) Activities of Russian ships for the purpose of transporting North Korean troops (10.12)ㆍSynopsis of Russian landing ships transporting North Korean troops in the East Sea
Odesa:
#Odesa ❗️A missile attack this evening:
3 locations in Odessa were damaged:
12 private houses
4 carsNow, Shahid drones on the way: pic.twitter.com/8KHzfuSavh
— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 18, 2024
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
In Russian-occupied Lugansk, a military UAZ with the chief of staff for the service of troops and security of the military service of military unit 53847 Central Military District, Major Dmitry Vladimirovich Pervukha, was blown up by an IED today. pic.twitter.com/cQgI59s85Z
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 18, 2024
Zaporizhzhia Oblast:
HIMARS cluster munition strike on Russian assault group on motorcycles. Zaporizhzhia front. pic.twitter.com/ZZvvQURRTQ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 18, 2024
Do you know what time it is?
Kherson:
#Kherson #DroneAttacks #HumanSafari
🚨UPDATE:
15:00 5 municipal workers repairing a roof injured
15:20 a minibus at a market
15.30 a grocery store (the explosive did not detonate)
16:30 a house; a fire started
17:00 a man, 45, injured
18.00 a high rise https://t.co/cNdIh3ocTO pic.twitter.com/j7ceZMyeoH
— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) October 18, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Air cat!#dog #cat #uarmyhope #UAarmy #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineWar #Animal #animalrescue pic.twitter.com/nOV4Koo8fE
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) September 12, 2024
Smile #dog #cat #uarmyhope #UAarmy #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar️️ #UkraineWarNews #UkraineWar #Animal #animalrescue pic.twitter.com/hspNBYQEaG
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) September 12, 2024
Open thread!









Yarrow
Thanks, Adam.
Yes, yes and YES. So frustrating to know this and watch as the US and Europe refuse to recognize it and act accordingly.
Jay
Thank you Adam.
Gin & Tonic
Goddamn, this is infuriating:
It has been this way approximately forever. Fuck you, Olaf, Ukrainians have agency in this. Did Zelensky invite you to discuss this with putin? No? Then sit the fuck down and shut the fuck up.
Ivan X
So, as usual, I don’t know anything about anything, especially military, but how do you motivate troops to fight somewhere far away for and in a culture that has nothing to do with your own? I get that North Koreans don’t exactly have a lot of choices in their lives, but still, there’s a difference between fighting for your homeland (which I guess a Russian who buys into Putin’s alternate history might believe they are doing) versus being told to go fight for an ally of convenience fot causes that aren’t felt personally. Please forgive the undoubted naïveté of this question.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
Yup.
Villago Delenda Est
@Ivan X: I don’t know. Perhaps they think they might be able to defect once they’re deployed. After all, they’ve been living in a prison that calls itself a country for all their lives.
Jay
@Ivan X:
Orderz.
The NORK Military key morale driver is that when the next famine hits, you won’t be amongst the starving.
‘Tis better to go and possibly die in Ukraine or Kursk than to be executed by a quad 20mm AA gun in North Korea.
And why should only the ruZZians have the opportunity to loot Ukraine
Keep in mind, that these are the “professionals” of the NORK’s, not the conscripts, so they are all in with Kim.
KatKapCC
Whenever we see POWs coming home, I’m both relieved and happy for them and their loved ones, and also heartsick at the fact that I know I can never even begin to imagine the horrors that were inflicted on them, and how difficult in every sense it must be to try to return to their “normal” (to whatever degree life can be “normal” in Ukraine right now) lives.
Chet Murthy
@Ivan X: I have a vague memory of North Korean defectors relating that their families were threatened if they didn’t comply with the regime’s orders. And that that was how they tried to keep NorK athletes from defecting.
Chris
@Ivan X:
I mean, you can ask our soldiers this just as easily. Think of the sheer number of times U.S. troops have been deployed, overtly or covertly, to a poorly understood conflict zone far from home, and often to defend a regime that would’ve triggered a second revolution if it ever came to America. I doubt if most of our soldiers were thrilled to be helping warlords and dictators in places like Southeast Asia, Central America, or Afghanistan, but even in a democracy, putting on the uniform pretty much means you go where the government sends you.
Ruckus
@Villago Delenda Est:
How much of the outside world do they have a clue about? A country like theirs or a prison likely would not have a lot of outside communications so for many of them what they know is what they are told. The basic reason that countries like NK close off as much communications as possible. And/or lie to their citizens about anything out side their borders.
Ruckus
@Chris:
putting on the uniform pretty much means you go where the government sends you.
In a dictatorship it is worse than in the military here. Sure in our military you go where you are told/sent, your life is run by rules, regulations and often assholes in charge. (I served during a time of war so just for the record I’m not disagreeing with you – but) But in that dictatorship it will likely cost you far more to disagree, and just having doubts might have a much higher cost. In this country, sure it is costly but you have to work at it to pay an extreme cost. In a country that does not allow any disagreement or disinterest whatsoever you likely do not get to even ask the question and here you probably won’t like the answer, but you can ask and you can decline at a not insignificant cost. But there is a path.
Jay
@Chris:
@Ruckus:
@Ruckus:
These guys are not 2 year conscripts,
these guys are the guys who decided on a Military Career, rather than becoming a printer and making supernotes, getting into pharma to make meth and estacy, or an MBA to bust sanctions and set up contracts with Dom Perignon, or lesser work like in a Siberian logging camp or illegal High Seas driftnet factory ship.
They went into SOF after a two year conscription, so if Kim says jump, they say how high.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
Allegedly, those executions were/are done with a ZPU-4 (quad 14.5 mm).
Why is North Korea executing high-level officials with anti-aircraft guns? (Max Fisher, May 14, 2015)
North Korea executes defence chief with an anti-aircraft gun: South Korea agency (By Ju-Min Park and James Pearson, May 13, 2015)
Chet Murthy
@Jay: That’s true. But OTOH, when they get to the Donbass, get robbed by the Russian units to which they’re assigned, and then sent on meat waves ….. I mean, it ain’t like they have any ideological commitment to this war.
hrprogressive
Sincerely believe we’re gonna see a rerun of the 1930’s and 40’s, just with different belligerents, at the rate this is going.
Bill Arnold
@Jay:
There’s also a career path of hacking for (big) money (theft) for the NK government. Often of cryptocurrency and adjacent firms, sometimes (it is reported) actually getting employed without an interview so that they can insert backdoors as insiders. (I haven’t heard of any ransomware; that seems to be a more Russia-dominated criminal industry.)
Jay
@Chet Murthy:
They have an Ideological commitment to the Kim’s.
And these guys will not be doing “meat waves”.
NORK SOF are highly trained and skilled, and there are a lot of them.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_House_raid
and have been for a very long time.
The “training” they are undergoing in ruZZia and the Donbass is not basic training or meatcube training, it is familiarization training with the ruZZian systems, ruZZian language, so that they can work well with the ruZZian military.
They will be deployed in full Brigades, 1200 NORKs, will be operating on their own, but will rely on the ruZZian’s for armor, arty, air, intel, etc.
They will be a big issue for the UAF.
Chet Murthy
@Jay: Ugh. I’d have hoped that they’d be operating under Russian command, and RU officers would divide ’em up in order to help their own commands. Sigh.
Jay
@Chet Murthy:
In the NORK Military, these guys tactical and strategic role is to pass through or bypass by sea or air the mined, fortitifed and sensored DMZ, unseen, pass into the rear of US and South Korean frontlines, seize and destroy logistics hubs, and hold them until the NORK Regular Army arrives.
They have broken through the DMZ or bypassed it over a dozen times since the end of the Korean War.
hotshoe
@hrprogressive:
Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. I remember when I first heard the news, I figured it would be only days until we were in a world war. Well, I was wrong about that — although Adam Silverman might say something like: “Yes, we’re in a world war, but unfortunately undeclared by the US govt; being undeclared is bad for us because that limits the US (and European ally) ability to respond effectively”
Now my pessimism is turned up to 11. ReThugs are all in for Russia against Ukraine (and I don’t believe their party can return to sanity even if goddamn Putin-loving Trump loses the election). Russia and Iran are working together. North Korea, for god’s sake! It all looks so dangerous.
I think things are going to get very hot very quickly.
wjca
The same way they motivate Russian cannon fodder. “Go there, and attack in that direction, or you will be shot by us.” Plus, as @Chet Murthy: noted
Coming from a country with recurring famines, all Kim has to say is, If you don’t go and fight, your family’s extra rations get cut off.
wjca
But not, I think, immediately. I expect Putin will at least wait until after the US election. After all, if Trump wins, he can probably win in Ukraine on the cheap. And a big attack now might well be electorally counterproductive.
But once the election is over, I can see the NK guys going for an amphibious landing at/near Odessa. Assuming they have available any landing craft in the Black Sea.
EngineerScotty
One issue with any maneuver warfare is that winter weather is coming. How and where it will affect things remains to be seen.
And while the NK army has, according to Wikipedia, about 1.3 million troops… how many of these will Kim send to Ukraine?
Jay
@wjca:
There is no ruZZian Navy in the Black Sea, they have pulled everything back to the Sea of Azov.
First deployment of the NORKs will be Kursk.
They will do what they have trained/ been organized to do, which is break through fortified lines and raise hell in the rear, to start.
Jay
@EngineerScotty:
12,000 to start. All combat engineers, missile troops and Special Forces.
wjca
EDT oops, wrong thread link.
wjca
I see the symbolic significance of Kursk. But strategically, it seems far more important to cut off Ukraine’s export capability if at all possible. If there are no amphibious craft available, perhaps a parachute drop, camouflaged by a missile bombardment. Overall, it doesn’t matter how they get there, if they can arrive.
Jay
@wjca:
ruZZian aircraft up until recently, have stayed 60km away from the front lines and a greater distance from the Ukrainian Coast, as the Ukrainian’s can “reach out and touch them” if they come closer.*
The F-16 shootdown of an SU-37, ( used for launching Khinzal missiles and glide bombs well inside ruZZian controlled airspace) last week, changes the metrics.
*Helo’s and SU-25’s can come closer to the front lines, by flying “nape of the earth” routes, then a ways away, (15-20km), pulling up in a short steep climb, lobbing glide bombs or missiles, going into a steep dive, firing flares and returning hope at the nape of the earth.
Over the Black Sea, the closest a ruZZian aircraft has gotten to the Ukrainian Coast since May, was 120km, and that SU-37 was shot down.
There won’t be any NORK air or sea assaults on Ukraine this year.
Instead they will try in November or December, once the ground has frozen, to be the spear, Stoßtruppen, for an attempt at deep battle by the ruZZian Army and turn the battle in Kursk into a mobile war.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-soldier-bodies-pows-0fbe8d63b27f96cbbb0275af5807d776
YY_Sima Qian
I am at a loss as to why Kim the 3rd is willing to expend so many dedicated & loyal troops in Ukraine, unless Putin is giving him a lot tech for submarines, ballistic/cruise missiles, & nuclear weapons, which might enhance the former’s regime security. (Otherwise, what does he care about Putin’s imperial ambitions across the fUSSR?) I guess Kim the 3rd does not expect to see high intensity war on the Korean Peninsula any time soon.
Not sure how well the NK troops will perform in Ukraine. Surely they are better trained & more motivated than the freshly mobilized conscripts in the Russian Army, or even the badly depleted contract troops. OTOH, they will be fighting on alien terrain (both physical & cultural), needing to coordinate closely w/ Russian arms such as reconnaissance, artillery, armor, drone operations, etc. (& Russia & NK have not trained together for decades), & unlikely to be accustomed to the challenges of ubiquitous drones on the battlefield as their Ukrainian & Russian counterparts are.
Whatever happens, it really does feel that any semblance of world order is devolving at an accelerated pace in front of our eyes.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: It was a Su-34 that was shot down by a Ukrainian F-16.