Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Everything is totally normal and fine!!!

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

“Facilitate” is an active verb, not a weasel word.

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let there be snark.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

Trump’s cabinet: like a magic 8 ball that only gives wrong answers.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

If you’re gonna whine, it’s time to resign!

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Let me file that under fuck it.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / China / War for Ukraine Day 969: The Glide Bombing Continues

War for Ukraine Day 969: The Glide Bombing Continues

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A quick housekeeping note. Rosie, Ruby too, are doing great. Rosie’s last chemo treatment is Monday, so we’ll have more on that then. Now that the humidity has come down a lot and the heat as well, it is safer to walk her. We did a 3/4 mile walk earlier and she did very well despite not doing a lot of walking during the course of her treatments because of the effects of them on her combined with the outrageously high heat and humidity. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Now that I’ve gotten a bit of rest, I want to take a moment and spend a little more time on the North Korean soldiers issue. The Republic of Korea’s (ROK/South Korea) National Intelligence Service (NIS) has reported that the soldiers that Kim has dispatched to Russia to fight against the Ukrainians are DPRK Special Forces. These are elite soldiers. They are not conscripts doing their mandatory service. They get special privileges in exchange for their service, proper food and access to sundry goods and commodities included. They are committed to the concept of Juche. These are not troops you want to take lightly. While there’s a lot of sturm und drang right now over whether they’ve actually been deployed to Russia or that they have been, but they’re not going to be used to fight the Ukrainians, these guys are what the Russians thought and mythologized their own Special Forces to be before the Ukrainians chewed them up in February and March 2022. It is also important to remember that it gets VERY, VERY, VERY cold on the Korean peninsula during the winter, there’s a lot of mountainous terrain, and the North Korean Special Forces are trained and acclimated for winter and mountain warfare, so the Ukrainian winter is not going to phase them. If they are assigned to fight the Ukrainians things are going to get very, very, very sporty very quickly.

On the other side of the DMZ, the ROK has their own elite Special Forces. I’ve got friends and colleagues who have worked with them. Even the Special Forces (Green Berets) and Rangers tell stories of agreeing to get up early and do PT with the South Korean Special Forces and getting completely smoked by the latter. They’re in amazing condition, highly trained and skilled, and excellent Soldiers.

The larger issue here is that we are looking at an expansion of one of the kinetic/lethal theaters of operation in Putin’s world war against the US, the EU, NATO, and other US allies and partners. The other three primarily kinetic/lethal theaters are the Russian occupied parts of Georgia; Syria, where Russia attacked civilian targets in Idlib just last week; and the Sahel states. Again, Russia’s world war is primarily being waged with the elements of national power – Diplomatic, Informational, Economic, Financial, Intelligence, and Legal – other than Militaray power except in these four theaters of operation. It is a world war where the aggressor’s/Russia’s military power is not normally distributed as most of the targets are being attacked with the other elements of Russian national power. Where Russian military power is used outside of these four theaters, it is the result of the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence, undertaking it’s sabotage and wetwork campaigns. Campaigns that are also being conducted by Russia’s SVR as the two agencies are in competition with each other. Putin’s world war is being resourced by Iran, North Korea, and, based on recent reporting, the PRC. Russia is killing Ukrainian civilians and destroying Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian and North Korean weapons systems and munitions. We are now waiting to see if the North Korean Special Forces will actually be deployed against the Ukrainians. And while it is out of scope for the Ukrainian war updates, Kim has cut the roads and rail lines near the DMZ while redeploying additional forces to that area.

I do not expect President Biden and his senior natsec appointees to actually figure this out. They have been incredibly resistant to actually recognizing the geo-strategic reality of the past four years. Even if it was not apparent from their response to and handling of Putin’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine, it is visible from space in regard to their mismanagement of the Israel-Hamas, Israel-Hezbullah wars. I read the Israeli news reporting, commentary and analysis, and subject matter experts every day. All of them, every single one, are repeatedly amazed about how Biden, Blinken, Austin, Sullivan, Hochstein, McGurk, et al have been played by Bibi, Dermer, and the rest of Bibi’s people over and over and over again.

Their belief, shared by the rest of the Blob inside and outside the Beltway, that the PRC is the pacing threat and we have to pivot US natsec to meet it before 2027 is based on a significant misunderstanding of Chinese political, strategic, and military culture, Xi, and what the PRC is actually doing in its own geo-strategic activities. Their fundamental misunderstanding of China’s political and military geography has now come home to roost with the latest North Korean developments.

Quite simply, there is not a part of the world that is safer and more stable than it was four years ago. Yes, had Trump been reelected, it would all be worse, but just because Trump and his team would be worse, and that he and they have been actively working to subvert Biden and his team’s natsec efforts, doesn’t excuse the strategic malpractice, mismanagement, and failures of President Biden and his senior natsec appointees.

But just because these are the wrong men – and every single member of the senior natsec team handling these issues are men – to meet this moment, does not mean we should fail to recognize the moment for what it is: an ever expanding world war.

Here’s a summary of Russia’s drone swarm attack last night/early this morning:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from early today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We Keep Working to Free Our People: Military Personnel and Civilians – Address by the President

19 October 2024 – 20:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First of all, today our gratitude goes to our team involved in the exchanges and to all Ukrainian warriors – every unit – who replenish the exchange fund for our state. I am proud of you all, and I thank you for your help in liberating our people from Russian captivity.

It is important to understand that nothing happens just like that. Strong positions are always needed for Ukraine. The capabilities of our state must always be increased. In times of war, results can only be earned. I thank everyone who makes this possible.

We have managed to bring back another 95 Ukrainians from Russian captivity. Most of them are privates and sergeants, 26 officers. Defenders of Mariupol, and generally of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kherson regions. Among them are Azov warriors. Also, Maksym Butkevych – a Ukrainian human rights activist, who went to defend Ukraine after the beginning of the full-scale war. All those who have been returned are now receiving the assistance they need.

And we keep working to free our people: military personnel and civilians. This is a very difficult process, but the more effective we are on the battlefield and in diplomacy, the sooner we will be able to bring the others back. We are investigating the fate of everyone who may be in captivity. We are trying very hard to get all of them back.

I thank the Armed Forces, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Office, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ombudsman, the Coordination Headquarters – all those who are involved and those who help. As well as our partners – those countries and leaders who strengthen our positions within this work. And always, whenever we have the opportunity, we talk to leaders during visits about the need to bring Ukrainians home. All of them. All those who are captured by Russia.

Today, I met with the Minister for Foreign Affairs of France. It was exactly the meeting we needed. I am grateful to France, President Macron, and all of French society for supporting Ukraine, our defense. We had very good, productive talks in Paris during my visit. We cooperate fruitfully for defense, and in politics, and for our greater resilience – of Ukraine and of all our Europe. I am grateful to France for its support of the Victory Plan – the points that can really bring good faith diplomacy and a just peace closer. And we will be grateful to France for collaborating with our other partners to ensure that we have this shared vision – the vision that only a fair end to the war can truly guarantee a lasting peace.

And one more thing. I want to mention Norway: we have a new support package this week – 260 million dollars. The package is aimed at supporting our energy sector. Restoring destroyed facilities and developing modern infrastructure – this is what we need right now, ahead of winter.

There is also another step – a winter aid package from the Nordic-Baltic Eight: Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark. Thank you!

This week, there are also new important decisions in the framework of sanctions against Russia and its allies – the UK’s sanctions against Russia’s shadow tanker fleet. And we need the world to put much more pressure on Russia in this area. The shadow tanker fleet helps Putin finance war and terror, and in addition, it poses a global security threat to all countries whose coasts and seas could be polluted by the operation of such tankers. I am grateful to everyone in the world who realizes this and tries to protect people and countries.

This week has also brought Ukraine a new bilateral security agreement: we signed it with Greece. In general, our architecture of security agreements is developing and growing. But these are always very specific agreements. And it is important to implement every single point. We are working on it.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost and the reason:

The reason:

Butkevych is a Ukrainian human rights activist who was being held in a prison in Luhansk with 40 other POWs.

The first image of Maksym Butkevych after he returned to Ukraine in POW swap with Russia.

Answering question from journalist @dianabutsko, he said that he he did not know that he would be exchanged. Maksym added that 40 Ukrainian POWs were illegally held in a Luhansk prison along with him and another freed serviceman, and the release could encourage those POWs to expect their return home one day.

Maksym Butkevych says that is almost happy.

The image is from video by @Hromadske

Here’s the machine translation of the quoted tweet with the video:

Maksym Butkevich, a released human rights defender and military man, said that the news about the exchange was unexpected – he learned about it by accident on the way

Video: Diana Butsko / hromadske

What Levada says below was true in Russia then, is true in Russia now, and is exactly what Trump and his surrogates, proxies, and benefactors cosplaying as proxies (Musk) are trying to ensure is true in the US in the run up to the November election:

Back in 2005, Yuri Levada, a well known Russian sociologist, political scientist and the founder of the Levada Center, said:

“The authorities need people to feel danger from all sides… And this requires constant mobilization readiness. Scary authorities need frightened people. They are easier to rule.”

Canada:

Canada announced $64.8 million in military assistance to Ukraine.

The package includes small arms and ammunition, personal protective equipment and military uniforms for women, drones, training for Ukrainian soldiers, and contribution to the IT Capability Coalition.

We are grateful to our Canadian friends for their unwavering support!
Together, until victory comes!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦
@NationalDefence @BillBlair

Lithuania:

Germany:

The PRC:

Poltava:

Zaporizhzhia:

Kharkiv:

Odesa:

Bryansk, Russia:

St. Petersburg:

That’s enough for tonight.

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30Comments

  3. 3.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    I have never said why I support Ukraine so fiercely. I’m not sure it’s even important at this particular time. Meh. Here goes.

    I’m adopted.

    The couple who adopted me were either second or third generation immigrants, with an extended family some of whom were first generation, whose first language was Ukrainian. Which I wish I had  been taught.🙄 I could say much more about these wonderful people, but I will spare you. This really isn’t the place, anyway.

    Suffice it to say, Ukraine occupies a very special place in my heart, I have always wanted to go there, and what is currently happening there is almost beyond my ability to process.

    How was this allowed, yes, allowed, to happen?  There have been so many warnings. Adam has been warning us for years. FFS when a dullard like me can see where this was going, the supposed Powers That Be should have known. This is an existential crisis for the entire damn world, has been since at least the Invasion, and it’s getting worse. By nature I’m an optimist, but my optimism is wearing thin as the War In Ukraine drags on. A country’s best and brightest is being sacrificed to protect the West, and I’m not so sure we remain worthy of that sacrifice. If there isn’t a strong response to the entrance of North Korea , or some kind of response of any kind, I fear it will be too late to do anything to stop the Murder Goblin in his tracks.

    Sorry about the rant, and thank you Adam.

  5. 5.

    db11

    Thank you Adam.

    I don’t often comment — but I do read these threads every night — and I appreciate and admire your commitment, consistency and clarity.

  8. 8.

    catfishncod

    There are not enough words of thanks, nor can there be enough repetitions thereof.

    That said: I was operating on the assumption that the disconnect of the current natsec was not a fundamental misread of China but rather a fundamental error in priority. That is to say, I presumed that the rising-China concept and the corresponding Indo-Pacific strategic containment model weren’t per se wrong but were less urgent than the parallel Fascintern network of Russia, Iran, Norkland, and their myriad proxies, agents, and useful idiots.

    To oversimplify, China doesn’t want chaos, it wants to recenter the World-System on Beijing. The Fascintern actively wants chaos on the theory that any World-System is detrimental to their interests. (This derives from their most common denominator: not autocracy or ideology, but kleptocracy.) Thus the Fascintern is the greater threat, but the Blob doesn’t recognize this.

    The idea that the misread is of China is new to me. Why do you feel that is the source categorical error, and what error is that?

  10. 10.

    EngineerScotty

    I’m far less worried about the involvement of North Korea, even if sending men, than I am worried about China becoming Russia’s arms supplier.

    15,000 troops will last two weeks in the current state of things.  Even if one assumes that these are elite soldiers who Won’t Fuck Up, we heard the same thing about Russian special forces, and they too got chewed up by the meat grinder.  And I’ve heard way too many just-so stories about how THIS country’s special forces are more badass than that country’s.

    The possibility that they may be injected behind enemy lines and cause havoc there, and be better at this (and loyal enough to not simply surrender or defect or get captured), is an interesting one–but Russia tried this with its own special forces, who look like the locals and many of whom can speak Ukrainian, and it didn’t work.

    Right now the state of the war is not dissimilar to World War One, but with missiles and drones.

    If one thinks that a world war is coming (or is already here)… the interesting wild card is Israel.  Netanyahu and the Biden Administration dislike each other, and the administration has been walking a tightrope with the domestic politics on this issue.  But in a wider possible global conflict, with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran (W wasn’t entirely wrong about the “axis of evil”, I guess; but chose to fuck with the least dangerous of the three to US interests, though one of the more dangerous to Saudi interests) on one side, and NATO, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan on the other–where do you think Israel goes?  Iran is already a sworn enemy; relations with Russia have been deteriorating swiftly, and Chinese media is full of praise for Yahya Sinwar as a fallen freedom fighter.  (Given lots of prior cooperation and little historical enmity between the PRC and Israel, and China’s own issues with oppressing occupied/annexed neighbors, the apparent emergence of China on Team Palestine* is a bit of a surprising development).  I suppose we allied with Stalin in WW2, so worse things have happened.

     

    * I don’t think for a minute that Beijing cares that much about the Palestinian cause, but instead view this as a strategic pivot.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @EngineerScotty:

    out of 21,400 Spetnaz in the ruZZian army, 462 have been confirmed to be killed in combat in Ukraine, 1221 wounded.

    In other words, the ruZZian Military has barely used their Spetnaz in combat. They are not meat cubes, meanwhile the 155 Marine Brigade of the ruZZian Navy, what used to be an “elite” force, is using convicts, and fake contract* soldiers.

    I am sure that the ruZZian commanders will spare the NORKs the way they have their own.

    *recent conscripts and their families have discovered that contracts have been forged in their names, allowing them to be meat cubes until the end of the SMO.

  15. 15.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    You use your SOF to “make a hole”, penetrate into the rear, destroy command and control and logistics.

    In the 3 day SMO, the SOF sent in, (keep in mind, the regular ruZZian army troops brought marching bands and parade uniforms) got badly mauled. Zelensky lived, the Spetnaz teams did not. ruZZian intelligence said they had “popular support”, lots of traitors, so, ( given the season), it would be as easy as kicking in a rotten pumpkin.

    Then came the roll back, then came trench warfare and the end of mobile war, mostly. Not places where SOF are greatly useful.

    Some of the ruZZian SOF have been used in the past year, in small infiltration assaults, and while getting closer to Ukrainian defenders, that just means their bodies lie closer or are lost in the verge.

    It costs ruZZia 3 years and 2.6 million rubles, to train up one SOF. They are more expensive than tanks and take longer to produce.

    SOF soldiers are best used as the spearpoint of “Deep Battle”, and Deep Battle is no longer possible in Ukraine, recon, (drones are cheaper and safer), or in quelling revolutions and insurgencies.

  16. 16.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @EngineerScotty: The reporting appears to indicate Russian MIC contracting w/ one or more of the smaller private drone makers in the PRC that have sprung up in the past decade as the result of the “civil-military fusion” effort, for Shahed-like equipment.

    They are not sourcing any of the myriad of much more sophisticated combat UAVs made by state owned or larger private manufacturers currently in PLA service (or currently being marketed internationally). As such, it is quite possible, as US/European officials had suggested last week when the reporting initially appeared, that these are commercial activities by to date isolated PRC companies w/o the approval or encouragement from the PRC government. Certainly the PRC government has no incentive to dissuade or even regulate such transactions w/ Russia. As the saying goes in China, “the mountains are high & the emperor is far away”. I don’t see evidence of, nor can I discern motivation for, the PRC changing its to date policy of selling dual use items only to Russia, &. no lethal weapons or munitions.

    Therefore, I expect the US & the EU government should be able to persuade the PRC government to crack down more on such activities so as not to risk totally rupturing Sino-US or Sino-EU relations, which the PRC government is not interested in rupturing. Unlike w/ Iran & NK, the US & the EU do have leverage w/ the PRC, &  the PRC is not the kind of anarchist actor that Iran & NK are. Unfortunately, all that is likely to accomplish is driving such activities further underground & through more intermediaries.

  17. 17.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    ruZZia still “buys” a ton of sanctioned shit from the EU.

    Dummy company in Kazikistan, transport is cross shipment by ground across ruZZia. Shipment crossed the ruZZian or BeloruZZian border, end customer is changed.

    10,000 rubles cheaper in transport than 3rd party via Turkey or China.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @EngineerScotty: The PRC has supported the Palestinian cause, & the Arab nationalist side in the Arab-Israeli conflicts, since the ’50s. In official CPC narrative (wrong on so many levels), Israel is a proxy/extension of Western capitalist colonialism/imperialism, & the Palestinian & Arab cause a key part of the post-WW II global anti-colonial national liberation movement. While Israel recognized the PRC very early on (possibly due to the leftist sympathies of many of Israel’s early leaders), the two countries did not establish formal diplomatic relations until 1990 (the same year the KSA switched diplomatic recognition from the ROC on Taiwan to the PRC).

    It is easily understandable why the PRC is now all in on the Palestinian cause at this moment. w/ the Sino-US Great Power Competition the central geopolitical dynamic, & Sino-European relations strained by the PRC’s indirect support of Russia in Ukraine, efforts by the US to persuade/coerce the EU into alignment vis-a-vis the PRC, & the increasingly competitive nature of European & Chinese industries, the focus of current PRC geopolitical & economic effort is in the Global South (while preventing relations w/ the West from rupture). The Global South overwhelmingly supports the Palestinian cause, & has always been the case. Israeli conduct in Gaza, the WB & southern Lebanon has only cemented their opinions further. Just check how quickly & how far popular & elite opinions of the US have cratered across the developing world since 10/7/23, including in countries that the US “Blob” sees as “pivotal states” in the “Indo-Pacific” – Indonesia, Malaysia & Vietnam. In any case, US pressure to push Israel to [reluctantly] decrease its economic & technological collaboration w/ the PRC has significantly reduced Israel’s usefulness to the PRC’s economic & technological goals.

    This is a great wedge issue for the PRC to exploit, & Modi government’s early support of Israel & later prevarications have hurt India’s credibility as a leader in the Global South (the US “Blob” had/has real hopes that India could challenge the PRC for leadership in the developing world). It is all upside for the PRC, w/o having to draw down any of its diplomatic/military/economic capital, or put its own credibility on the line in any way. For the US & many of the Western powers, it is all downside.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: Sanctions & embargoes are never leak proof, it just creates incentives to break through sanctions & embargoes. The best they can achieve is to increase the cost & lengthen the time for acquisitions, & that is still useful if a part of a larger strategy & not the strategy in & of itself. I think the West has to be realistic about that. No amount of moral outrage will change things.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @catfishncod: I too would appreciate if Adam can elaborate a bit more on the “Blob’s” PRC policy/strategy (or lack thereof). I have my own opinions & have expressed them plenty, but I expect Adam to come at this from a different angle.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Yeah, sanctions are not water proof, but they can be.

    If, I were shipping a ruZZian sanctioned item to China, it would sure as hell not go as a ground shipment across ruZZia or belaruZZia,

    What are you, idiots? Or complicit?

    Even if it’s on the up and up, that’s like telling the bandits where the Wells Fargo gold shipment will be.

    Going with complicit.

    Lotta yelling at China, Turkey, etc for leaving the window open, when all the windows and doors are left open and they can close most of the windows and doors themselves.

  22. 22.

    Chris

    @EngineerScotty:

    The problem with special forces as Elite Soldiers Who Won’t Fuck Up is that there’s only so much you can train a soldier to be better than another soldier. No matter how Special the Forces, they’re not bulletproof, they’re not fireproof, they don’t have superpowers, they have the same needs to eat, drink, and sleep as anybody else, and even if you spend twice as much on training and equipping them as a regular infantry soldier they still can’t be in two places at once. And of course they still fuck up.

    So yeah, I’m sure the Spetznaz were good at their job, it’s just that that has limits.

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Their belief, shared by the rest of the Blob inside and outside the Beltway, that the PRC is the pacing threat and we have to pivot US natsec to meet it before 2027 is based on a significant misunderstanding of Chinese political, strategic, and military culture, Xi, and what the PRC is actually doing in its own geo-strategic activities. Their fundamental misunderstanding of China’s political and military geography has now come home to roost with the latest North Korean developments.

    If they truly believed in the 2027 “deadline”, their behavior would be different. Arms procurement would prioritize maximizing stockpile of mature design platforms & munitions ASAP, rather than R&D of unproven “revolutionary” designs that might be available in the 2030s (assuming no delays & budget overruns, but the examples of the Constellation class frigate & the NGAD fighter are not encouraging). The much touted AUKUS program will not deliver the interim Virginia class SSNs to the RAN until the mid-30s, & the full run of 8 boats not until the late 2040s, if the project does not collapse under its own eye watering cost & mind boggling convolution well before then.

    The USG, DOD & MIC have not gone all out to ramp up production of select types of munitions for Ukraine ASAP to defeat immediate Russian aggression, nor is there evidence that the US MIC has ramped up production to expedite the massive qty of arms sold to Taiwan but yet to be delivered, what evidence is there that the USG & MIC is actually anticipating fighting the far larger & more capable PLA in 2027, a fight the US is likely to be directly engaged in, & during which is expected to expend platforms & smart munitions at prodigious rates by all sides (& w/ the implied casualty rates)?

    Right now, it feels that “War w/ the PRC by 2027!” hysteria is more of an effort by the MIC to fatten themselves (especially w/ the Silicon Valley VC/techbros now getting into the feeding frenzy, see Palantir & Anduril), & for Herrenvolk ethno-nationalists to prepare the domestic political landscape to better further their Fascistic agenda.

  24. 24.

    Nettoyeur

    I am a scientist, not a military expert. However, for nearly 50 yrs, I have worked on projects in 6 countries, including Russia and Ukraine, and  i speak four languages, incl Russian.

    While apparently elite NoKo troops fighting for Russia is alarming, I suggest taking a deep breath.

    1. They are mercenaries. Machiavelli famously warned against using mercenaries or foreign auxiliaries who have Other Priorities. In WWII, the Nazis used troops from France, Hungary, Italy etc, and they were run over by the Allies ,  notably the Soviets. The Free French infamously used troops from Algeria and Morocco (who at least spoke French) as cannon fodder in the invasion of Italy and the liberation of France.

    2. I have doubts about the effective  integration of NoKo forces into the Russian command structure.  Language skills: Russian and Korean have no similarity AT ALL in grammar,  vocab, or writing system. It takes years to master languages with that much linguistic separation. What are the odds of having significant numbers of bilingual soldiers on either side? (By the way, there are also Korean emigrés in UKR and other former East bloc countries; these started as workers sent from NoKo during the Soviet era).

    3. The lack of a strong non-com role in RU military (UKR has shifted to US model). Impedes field operations,  flexibility. Add a language barrier and a brutal command style and well…..

    4. Neither RU nor NoKo military noted for health and nutrition of soldiers.

    5. The mere fact that Russia thinks it needs these troops gives one pause. Much is made of RU loss rates if ~1000/day. Yet in 4 years of WWII, the USSR (with pop.~ 140M, like that of RU today), sustained military  DEATH rates averaging ~10,000/day. Maybe Putin is worried about public support,  but OTOH, Russia has simply not really begun to fight seriously.

  25. 25.

    Another Scott

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    The USG, DOD & MIC have not gone all out to ramp up production of select types of munitions for Ukraine ASAP to defeat immediate Russian aggression, …

    The DoD can only do things that they have funding for. Brass and think-tankers there can argue until they are blue in the face that the DoD needs to plan for some conflict with some adversary in 20XX, but it won’t translate into hardware unless Congress agrees to provide the funding

    Similarly with NATO ramping up production and sending meaningful numbers of long-range weapons to Ukraine. And it’s actually worse there because Europe will see the consequences before the USA does, so they rightfully have to be fully (and (at least nearly) unanimously) on-board first.

    Ultimately, the politics has to enable war planning, funding, production, strategy, and tactics and communications. Of course.

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  26. 26.

    Chris

    @Nettoyeur:

    Agree with everything else, but the NorKors aren’t mercenaries. They’re soldiers being deployed by their government to a war zone they’ve decided to involve themselves in to support an ally their government has decided is worth supporting. American troops in WWII weren’t mercenaries just because they were sent to support the British.

  27. 27.

    EngineerScotty

    @Chris: Kind of my point.  The things that SOF are good at, aren’t of as much value in the current state of the campaign.  Soldiers that stay on the rear echelon, while useful (for the logistical things they do), don’t move the battle lines directly, and I’m certain that North Korean special forces aren’t being brought over to load artillery shells onto train cars for transport to the front.  It’s work that needs to be done, obviously, but you don’t need commandos for that.

    Plus–the North Korean army is estimated  (by Wikipedia) to have about 1.5M men.  So this is 1%–but is Kim send his top cadre of soldier to Ukraine, where they aren’t available to deal with the South should it be necessary, or for any domestic things that might pop up?

    If you use them as infantry, then they are infantry.  Likely more highly skilled infantry that mobiks who are only trained to carry guns and shoot west until they die, but still infantry and nothing more, most likely to die long meters before crossing into enemy territory.

  29. 29.

    way2blue

    Adam.  I especially appreciate your posts like this one, when you take a step back and place the grinding conflict in Ukraine into the broader context of America’s tone-deafness.  I doubt Biden will make any long-awaited pivots in the next month or so.  Alas.  But I did see mention that the U.S. will no longer slow-walk Ukraine joining NATO.  Is this notion worth the paper it was written on?  A response to Zelenskyy mentioning option B of acquiring (re-acquiring) the where-with-all to produce its own nuclear weapons?  Something else?  Oh.  Jake Sullivan.  I caught mention of him saying the Ukraine had lots of i’s to dot and t’s to cross before discussing NATO ascension.  (Someone please promise me that he will be shown the door when Harris becomes president.  Thanks.)

    US ready to invite Ukraine to NATO – Le Monde

    < https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-ready-to-invite-ukraine-to-nato-le-monde/ar-AA1szau8 >

    Senior US official on Ukraine’s accession to NATO: There is work to do…  – Ukrainska Pravda

    < https://www.yahoo.com/news/senior-us-official-ukraines-accession-090122575.html >

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Another Scott: That is why I started w/ “USG”. On matters of foreign policy, public opinion generally follows elite opinion. Risk aversion is a choice, risk embracing is a choice, unconditional support of Israel is a choice, conditional support of Ukraine is a choice, pursuit of primacy is a choice, so is militarism, & “liberal hegemony” under whatever euphemism. Of course foreign policy can quickly bleed into domestic politics by affecting the latter’s valence. We’ve seen plenty of that during the Cold War, the GWOT, & the new Great Power Competition today.

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