Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

There is one struggling party in US right now, and it’s not the Democrats.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

The revolution will be supervised.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

The rest of the comments were smacking Boebert like she was a piñata.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 971: Russia’s Butcher’s Bill – Glide Bombs, Shahed Swarms, & Executed POWs

War for Ukraine Day 971: Russia’s Butcher’s Bill – Glide Bombs, Shahed Swarms, & Executed POWs

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A picture of a black lab mix wearing a blue bandana. The bandana has "Kick Cancer's Tail" writtin on it in white letters.

A quick housekeeping note: Rosie had her last chemo treatment today. She’s still in full remission and the oncology vet is very pleased with her progress and status. Sorry about the blurry picture, but she wasn’t really interested in standing still and that was the best shot I could get of her wearing here “Kick Cancer’s Tail” bandana. Right now she’s snoozing away on the sofa. We’ll take it easy for a few days as the final dose of chemo works its way through her system. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

We now have documentation that Russia executed even more POWs:

Ukrainian prosecutors have reported that russian soldiers executed two Ukrainian prisoners of war near the town of Selidove on October 18th.

According to the Ukrainian ombudsman, russia executed over 100 Ukrainian PoWs on camera.

It is utterly shocking that these atrocities are being treated with such indifference. Organizations that are supposed to protect human rights seem to be inactive and silent, major news outlets remain criminally ignorant, and the Western governments are turning a blind eye to these.

Given that this appears to be at least an unofficial standard operating procedure, it is amazing how many Ukrainian POWs the Ukrainians have been able to bring home.

Torture, humiliation, and hunger—these are what our Ukrainian people endure in Russian prisons and camps.

We have managed to bring 3,767 Ukrainians home. Almost all of them required long-term treatment and rehabilitation. Russia continues to illegally detain thousands more of our people and forcibly relocate children.

Together with everyone in the world who values human life, we must do everything possible to free each and every one of them. We are counting on the support of the Vatican and all our partners.

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

The reason:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump,

We Need Our Partners’ Resolve in Light of Reports about North Korea’s New Role in Supporting Russia – Address by the President

21 October 2024 – 20:24

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, there is a new decision by the United States to support Ukraine – a new defense package worth $400 million. Additionally, a separate package is being prepared for funding the production of Ukrainian drones, amounting to $800 million. Ukraine is grateful for this support. We need to ensure that, despite any political threats in the world, Ukraine can consistently defend its sovereignty and independence. This will certainly be ensured. Every meeting with our partners involves discussions about the defense-industrial complex. Today, I also spoke with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about the implementation of our Victory Plan and the concrete steps that can bring the plan’s points to life. We need decisive actions from our partners, especially in light of reports about North Korea’s new role in supporting Russia. It is obvious that Putin fears peace, which is why he is looking for ways to escalate the aggression and involve North Korea on the frontline. This is an obvious signal to the whole world as to who wants nothing but war. In this situation, I am grateful to every leader and every nation that is now increasing support for Ukraine, that has backed the first, inaugural Peace Summit, and is helping us prepare the second Summit as well. Prepare it in such a way that it will be truly effective. More than 100 countries and international organizations were with us at the first Peace Summit. All the principles for restoring peace that we proposed are fully based on the UN Charter and key international documents. Back in June, when 100 participants gathered to support peace for Ukraine and the full effectiveness of the UN Charter, there was a real sense of equality among all nations at the table. There was genuine respect for international law. This is exactly what the second Peace Summit should be like.

Today, I also held important meetings with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, and Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Umerov. We thoroughly discussed the situation on the frontline, in the main directions – Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Kharkiv, and others. The reports covered not only the current situation and our current actions but also future prospects. Accordingly, we discussed provisioning, armament, and brigade staffing. We also specifically discussed the Kursk operation – we are holding our positions, and I thank every warrior for their bravery. We must remember that the Kursk operation serves a strategic goal. The war must return to the territories from which it came. This is fair when a buffer zone is created on the aggressor’s territory. Moreover, the Kursk operation has enabled Ukraine to step up its efforts regarding prisoner exchanges – to bring our warriors back from Russian captivity. Everyone can see this. I thank all the combat brigades and every unit fighting on the frontline!

And one more thing.

Today, we held essential preparatory meetings ahead of the National Security and Defense Council session. Many new details emerged. Unfortunately, there have been hundreds of instances of violations at various levels due to the dishonest work of the Medical and Social Expert Commissions. There will be systemic, personnel, and procedural responses to address this.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today, I welcomed U.S. @SecDef Lloyd Austin in Kyiv. I thanked him for a new defense assistance package for Ukraine worth $400 million that includes ammunition, military equipment, and weaponry.

During the meeting we discussed critical defense priorities, including Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, preparations for the winter period, and the expansion of long-range weapon use against Russian military targets. Additionally, we focused on efforts to increase the production of strike drones, cruise missiles, artillery shells, and air defense systems.

Secretary Austin reaffirmed that the U.S. will continue its security support as part of the ongoing defense agreement between our countries. He also shared plans to convene a new Ramstein format meeting to coordinate further aid with international partners.

I emphasized the importance of our recent negotiations with President Biden, during which we talked about our Victory Plan and continued efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s defense.

We are grateful to President Biden, both parties in the U.S. Congress, and the American people for all their support since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Together with all of our allies we work to secure victory and peace for Ukraine and all peace-loving nations.

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

The U.S. has allocated a new military assistance package for Ukraine worth $400 million, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced during his to Kyiv on Oct. 21, Ukrinform reported.

Later in the day, the Pentagon said in its press release that the recent package included HIMARS air defense systems, tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided (TOW) missiles, M113 armored personnel carriers, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, and ammunition for high-mobility artillery.

Washington also pledged to provide Kyiv with 155 mm and 105 mm artillery ammunition, as well as 60 mm, 81 mm, and 120 mm mortar systems and rounds, among other weapons and training equipment.

The Pentagon chief arrived in Kyiv in a surprise visit to discuss further support for Ukraine as the uncertain U.S. presidential election looms.

There are fears that if Republican nominee and ex-President Donald Trump beats his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, he might withdraw or scale down U.S. support for Ukraine and force the country toward painful concessions.

Washington has allocated some $175 billion in assistance to Ukraine since the outbreak of the full-scale war in 2022, including roughly $70 billion worth of arms and military equipment.

Despite the U.S. support, Russian forces keep grinding on in the country’s east while Ukraine braces for fresh strikes against the energy grid with the coming winter.

Denmark and Sweden:

Don’t feel bad US, at least you’re in the top 21!

Moldova:

“If Ukraine’s international partners wait for changes beyond their direct control to happen before they take action, as they appear to be doing now, they will increase the chance of failure.”

Good rundown by Jack of what the West must do to help Ukraine get to a position of strength ahead of any negotiations. But also some things Kyiv must do to help itself.

RUSI’s Jack Watling at Foreign Affairs:

President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent recent weeks endeavoring to sell his “victory plan,” the core elements of which he unveiled to the Ukrainian parliament on October 16, to Ukraine’s partners. The plan includes expanded military assistance to stabilize the front, security guarantees through membership of NATO, and defense-industrial cooperation. The details of the plan have been met with significant skepticism among Ukraine’s partners, who fear that without reforms to Ukraine’s recruitment and training of military forces, equipment alone will be insufficient to stabilize the front. Nor are they sold on the willingness of the alliance to guarantee Ukraine’s security.

Though the details remain in question, the underlying analysis that shapes Zelensky’s pitch is sound. Russian President Vladimir Putin will negotiate seriously only if he believes he is losing militarily. To conclude the war on favorable terms, Ukraine must first stabilize the front, gain maximum leverage over Russia, and obtain security guarantees to ensure that it can prosper and remain secure after the conflict. To achieve those aims, Kyiv must be clearly aligned with its international partners.

The problem is that Ukraine now faces both a deteriorating battlefield situation and the stagnation of diplomatic efforts among its partners ahead of a U.S. election where the candidates have radically different approaches to the conflict. Over the summer, Russia managed to establish some significant advantages over Ukrainian forces, enabling it to make slow but steady progress through Ukrainian defenses. These Russian advantages can be blunted.But as Ukrainian casualties mount, Kyiv and its partners cannot waste any time. If Ukraine’s international partners wait for changes beyond their direct control to happen before they take action, as they appear to be doing now, they will increase the chance of failure.

RUSSIA’S GRINDING ADVANCE

As things stand now, the Kremlin believes it can achieve its objectives in Ukraine militarily and is therefore not interested in immediate negotiations or withdrawal. Ukrainian forces have become dangerously stretched. They are now spread along a 600-mile frontline, and recruitment and training has failed to make up for the number of casualties in frontline units. Furthermore, Ukraine’s supplies of artillery, ammunition, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles have been dwindling. The more it lacks these key types of equipment and weaponry, the more it must depend on infantry to hold the front, causing an associated rise in casualties.

Exploiting Ukraine’s manpower challenges along its eastern front, Russia has made gradual gains over the past few months. In the first half of October, Russian forces captured Vuhledar and broke into Toretsk—after two years of largely unsuccessful assaults on Ukraine’s Donbas defenses. Along with the seizure of key towns around the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk, these gains showed Russia establishing an effective formula for undermining Ukraine’s ability to hold positions. For Ukraine to be able to negotiate from a position of strength, it must end Russia’s advance and stabilize the front. But to do so, Ukraine’s military leadership will have to address several tactical challenges.

Russia’s current battlefield advantages rest on several capabilities. First, the thinning out of Ukraine’s tactical air defenses from late 2023—stocks of interceptors are perilously low, with only periodic resupplies—has allowed Russia to establish continuous and dense drone surveillance over the front. Russia now flies between 1,000 and 1,300 long-range reconnaissance drones over Ukrainian territory every day, providing Russia with valuable targeting data. Russian units use ballistic missiles to strike Ukraine’s air defenses if Ukraine tries to move them forward, as loitering munitions, uncrewed missiles designed to search and strike targets, scour the rear parts of Ukraine’s frontlines to destroy its artillery.

The threat from Russian loitering munitions and glide bombs forces Ukraine to keep its artillery away from the frontline, which in turn allows Russian forces to move their own artillery closer to the front, bringing them into range of Ukrainian logistics units, medics, and troops rotating behind the frontline. This pressure compels Ukrainian troops to remain in prepared fighting positions where they are safe from shrapnel. Meanwhile, Russia sends small groups forward to force the Ukrainians in fighting positions to expend ammunition and prevent them from resting. Once the fighting positions have been identified, the Russian forces call in airstrikes with 500- to 1,500-kilogram glide bombs, which can hit the positions with considerable accuracy. When the Ukrainians try to rotate their units, they are harassed by artillery. Then, when the defensive positions have been thinned out, the Russians attempt rapid assaults on motorbikes, often supported by armored vehicles, to get into the Ukrainian trenches.

This approach comes at a high cost in Russian troops, but for now, Russia has been able to absorb the casualties. Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances, giving Russia considerable leverage in negotiations.

SHELLS, SOLDIERS, AND SUPPLY CHAINS

To reverse this dynamic, Ukraine will need to do several things at once. First, it needs to limit Russia’s battlefield surveillance capabilities. Ukraine has developed effective interceptor drones that can knock down Russian Orlan and Zala surveillance drones. But it needs assistance scaling up the production of these interceptors and fielding a sufficient density of radar and other sensor systems to make them effective. Ukraine’s Western partners should augment this effort by expanding support in electronic warfare to interfere with the passage of Russian reconnaissance data. Kyiv’s Western partners can help protect the Ukrainian artillery by working with them to modify heavy machine gun remote weapon stations mounted on vehicles so that they can accurately engage loitering munitions. This would allow Ukraine to bring its artillery farther forward and put Russian guns at risk.

At the same time, Ukraine needs to make that artillery far more effective, and for that, it needs more howitzers and ammunition. Ukrainian forces still need approximately 2.4 million rounds a year to hold the front. With sufficient artillery pieces and the means to protect them, Ukraine would be able to cover gaps in the front with fire, rather than by having to continuously man fighting positions all along the front, with the added cost in Ukrainian losses that entails.

Kyiv also needs to dig new defense lines behind its current positions, with experienced soldiers supervising to make sure that civilian construction workers build the positions properly. Although Kyiv has commissioned the construction of defense lines before, its assembly and siting of fighting positions have often been poor, and the designs have presumed a greater number of troops than are available to man them.

Building more defense lines is of limited value if there are not enough personnel to occupy them. Over the past year, attrition has led to a decline in experienced Ukrainian soldiers in many units, and the training pipeline has failed to provide enough personnel or give those available soldiers sufficient training. In response, the Ukrainian military has cannibalized units, taking groups of more capable soldiers away for particular tasks and rapidly rotating command groups, which has undermined unit cohesion.

Kyiv needs to fix its dysfunctional recruitment and training system. Training for new troops has been inadequate throughout the war. This is something the Ukrainian military has been slow to acknowledge and slower still in addressing. It is also an area where Ukraine’s partners can do little. Although over 15 of Ukraine’s partnershave provided training to Ukrainian units, the logistical burden of transporting troops out of Ukraine with their equipment makes it impossible to scale up these operations. Kyiv’s willingness to make the hard political decisions to mobilize personnel and extend training times will determine whether Ukraine’s partners see their contribution to Zelensky’s victory plan as part of a viable strategy.

Conversely, Ukraine’s international partners can do much to reduce Russia’s advantage in firepower. To mount a capable defense against Russian artillery and glide bomb attacks, Ukraine needs to be able to strike stockpiles and airfields. Funding for and support of Ukraine’s own long-range strike programs and aggressive targeting of Russia’s supply chains of raw materials, machine tooling, and critical components of weapons production can have a significant effect. Europe and the United States should be able to help Ukraine force Russia to burn through more of its munitions and to degrade the Russian defense industry’s capacity to replenish its supplies.

In combination, these steps could make further advances prohibitively costly for Russia, but they would need to be applied systematically and at scale. The Kremlin would also need to believe that they can be sustained. If such measures are delayed, the situation at the front risks deteriorating to a point where the Russians can begin to advance with impunity, and where the Ukrainians simply lack the personnel and equipment to block all the axes along which the Russians might push. Preventing that outcome is a prerequisite for Ukraine to be able to embark on successful negotiations.

Much more at the link!

Not quite sure exactly where in Ukraine this is:

That is an excellent return on investment.

Not sure where exactly this is in Ukraine as well:

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Pokrovsk:

Sumy:

Donestsk Oblast:

Kharkiv:

Bob is a friend and former colleague from when I was assigned at USAWC. Prior to his retirement as a colonel, he was a Functional Area (FA) 48 E/C – a European/Eurasian foreign area officer (FAO).

Toretsk:

Zaporizhzhia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

31Comments

  4. 4.

    Villago Delenda Est

    TCFFG/PAB sez that both the war in Ukraine and the October 7 attacks would never have happened if he were President.

    Sure, Don.

  5. 5.

    Jay

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    17h
    The Ukrainian GUR claims to have killed a Russian Air Force Tu-22M3 bomber pilot, Dmitry Golenkov, in a targeted assassination.

    Golenkov was reportedly responsible for the Amstor shopping center and Dnipro Sobornyi District apartment attacks, killing 68 civilians.

    https://nitter.poast.org/Osinttechnical/status/1848271525046075436#m

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    17h
    gur.gov.ua/content/molotok-s…

    Golenkov appears to have been beaten to death with a hammer.

    From the Ukrainian GUR: “The GUR reminds that there will be a fair retribution for every war crime.”

  6. 6.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: Jack Watling is being realistic, but still a bit jarring to see him couching the need for increased support to Ukraine (& the need for improvements by Ukraine itself) in terms of securing a more advantageous negotiated settlement. He seems to be describing a scenario where Ukraine can consistently frustrate further Russian advances & exhaust Russia, forcing the latter to agree to terms that are not so disadvantaged to Ukraine, but would presumably allow Putin to hold on to most of his current gains in sovereign Ukrainian territory.  That is a victory of sorts for Putin already.

    Realists would say this entire dynamic, of initial enthusiasm & gradual exhaustion (certainly on the party of Ukraine’s western supports, & perhaps to a much lesser extent in Ukraine itself) in face of superior Russian numbers & resources, is predictable & even unavoidable. They have consistently warned against “total victory” as a dangerous fantasy.

    However, they have no answer as to how Putin would be placated by his current gains in Ukraine, & not be tempted to come back for more later, either in Ukraine, or in the fUSSR, or in CEE. A world where any big power can just invade a neighbor w/o provocation & grab a piece of the latter’s territory for itself, & behave in the most atrocious manner to the occupied population & to the POWs, is a totally Hobbesian nightmare that few countries should countenance, especially (from the stand point of a “rules based international order”) if the neighbor is an internationally recognized sovereign state. That is true for Russia in Ukraine, Israel in Gaza/WB/Southern Lebanon, or should the PRC blockade/invade Taiwan (especially in the absence of long standing casus belli under the long standing modus vivendi – TW declaring de jure independence, hosting permanent foreign military bases, or developing nukes).

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: You are correct. I do not agree with Watling’s or the “realists” conclusions or their underlying assumptions. The only way Putin, or whomever follows him, doesn’t come back for more is to ensure as total a defeat as possible.

  9. 9.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Adam L Silverman: I generally have some sympathy to the Realist “Restrainers” (such as Stephen Walt & Emma Ashford), & not the cynical & militaristic “Offensive Realists” (such as John Mearsheimer), but they all really do have a blind spot wrt Putin. The problem w/ Realism of every stripe is that they ignore the underlying socioeconomic dynamics & cultural-historic-religious factors that drive state behavior, specially reactionary state behavior. On that score they are as oblivious as the “Liberal Internationalists” (Liberal Hegemonists in reality) & Neocons. To me, Offensive Realists, Liberal Hegemonists & Neocons are all unrepentant Primacists at their cores.

    I am in much greater sympathy w/ Left Wing IR specialists (such as Van Jackson & Matt Duss), but they too have a blind spot wrt Putin, & they over focus (Leftists tend to do) on the socioeconomic dynamics’ impact on political & geopolitical trends while underplaying the cultural-historical-religious aspects. Both Van Jackson & Matt Duss have supported aiding Ukraine, but only to the extent of reaching negotiated settlement on terms favorable to Ukraine (as Jack Watling has just reached), not total defeat of Putin. (I am more forgiving here because socioeconomic forces, social justice, class conflict, & developmental rights are largely absent in mainstream discourse on geopolitics & IR in Western capitals, so the Leftists & Realist Restrainers bring critical balance. Furthermore, Left IR theorists are the only ones that I can see who have a coherence theory for sustainable & just peace in the world, whether people want to deem it wishful thinking. Indeed, I fervently wish they could be more influential. I like them because they are committed anti-primacists.)

    In any case, sustaining any kind of international order requires punishing gross violations on no uncertain terms, & prevent their repeat. That means defeating Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, but also ending Israel’s criminal way of war in Gaza/Souther Lebanon & slow motion ethnic cleansing in the WB, and preventing war across the Taiwan Strait (which requires both military deterrence & diplomatic reassurance that comes from reinforcing the long standing modus vivendi that has kept peace for decades). That also means the US should have been punished for its invasion of Iraq in 2003, & the sustained drone warfare across the globe during the GWOT. At the risk of speaking for you, I suspect that is the basis of your criticism of the Biden Administration’s risk aversion in Ukraine, & risk embracing wrt Israel & the PRC

    Also, aiming for total victory paves the path toward an advantageous & sustainable settlement even if total victory proves unattainable. Aim for nebulously defined advantageous settlement & one might end up w/ a disadvantageous settlement that is temporary.

  10. 10.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    My disgust with so-called realpolitik should be well known by now. Realistically, Ukraine shouldn’t exist by now. Realistically, Zelensky should be dead by now. Oops! PML but fuck this attitude. It’s this “realism” that has done so much damage. Shite like this is a luxury during war, & it should have ended when Ukraine invaded Kursk, if not when they sunk Muskova.

    Thank you Adam. Glad Rosie is doing so well.

  11. 11.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    You know, what’s annoyed me the most about this shit for the last three years is that it’s not even good Realism.

    Kissinger himself (rest in piss) devotes a fair amount of ink in his book Diplomacy to Revisionist Powers vs Status Quo Powers and to the Realist wet dream that was the Concert of Europe in the nineteenth century.  And a non-trivial part of this is that the Concert of Europe was founded on having defeated Napoleon, and on the need to ensure that no conqueror like that started marching all over the face of Europe again and remaking it in his image.  Yes, he does talk about how it’s important not to excessively humiliate France to the point that it’s tempted to come back for more, but that’s only in a context in which France has already been defeated in no uncertain terms.

    Metternich, the guy these people all want to be when they grow up, would’ve taken one look at modern-day Russia and said “yeah, you need to pile-drive those motherfuckers until they beg for mercy, and if at all possible, until they have a new regime.  Negotiated settlement should be the last thing on your mind right now.  You’re nowhere near that part of the conflict.  Right now, you need to worry about winning.”

  12. 12.

    piratedan

    anyone else tracking that likelihood that South Korea may be sending some troops to UKR to aid in handling the defections of NK troops?

  13. 13.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I would also note that arguing one’s rivals cannot be appeased (& tarring anyone advocating diplomacy as an “Appeaser”) has long been used by militarists & hegemonists to shut down opposition to their primacist agenda, so I am predisposed to be highly skeptical of such reasoning. However, Putin really is different. Such arguments past & present have tended to have been based on theoretical cases that fly in the face of existing evidence. Putin, OTOH, has an extensive body of evidence going back decades, & Adam has laid it all out for all of us to see over the past several years. If I had not read his posts hear on Putin’s revanchism over the years, I would be wholeheartedly agreeing w/ Emma Ashford, Stephen Walt, Van Jackson & Matt Duss on Ukraine.

  14. 14.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris: Well, to the self-styled Metternich wannabes (& it is not just the likes of John Mearsheimer, but everyone in Trump’s orbit), Xi is the modern Napoleonic threat, not Putin. Putin is Tsar Alexander that you can potentially ally w/ to defeat Napoleon. To the likes of Jake Sullivan & Kurt Campbell, Putin is Napoleon’s Polish ally that should be defeated, too, but there is no question which is the far greater threat that demands much more of their attention, & the effort to defeat Putin cannot distract from the effort to reassert military dominance w/in the First Island Chain (even though that ship has sailed).

    Agree w/ your last sentence.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @piratedan: I don’t see SK sending any troops to Ukraine under any circumstance, especially when NATO has not committed any troops. The SK Army is needed on the DMZ (party of the reason I am surprised that Kim the 3rd is willing to expend so many of his prized elite in the Ukrainian meat grinder).

    If we see NK troops on the front fighting for Russia & against Ukraine, I think we will see a major ramp up of aid in munitions & platforms to Ukraine, which the latter could really use right now.

  16. 16.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @YY_Sima Qian: Honest to the Gods, this meh reaction to the arrival of NK troops in the War In Ukraine is driving me nuts! Dithering is what gave the Murder Goblin time to pick up some of the pieces, and that’s lead things to this point. Even Macron seems to have lost the plot. My one hope is that, while these troops may be all that Adam said they are, yesterday, by Western standards at least, they are badly nourished, (the size difference between them & the Russians is kind of hard to miss.) and probably harbouring any number of untreated diseases, possibly including Tuberculosis and Covid19. (Coincidentally, both are supposed to be rampant in the Russian penal  system, along with HIV.)  Here’s hoping all this is true and that it will catch up with them when they actually enter actual combat, if/when that takes place.

  17. 17.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: I posted the below in yesterday’s thread, after it was dead (emphasis mine):

    On the topic of reported PRC transfer of lethal weapons to Russia (my WAG is engineering prototypes of the Shahed-like suicide drones or longer range drones that can drop explosive payloads, that the Russian MIC has contracted one or more companies in the PRC to develop, being field tested in Russia), here is what Shashank Joshi of the Economist is reporting:

    I asked a senior NATO official about this. They said: “we still don’t see actual weapons from China going into Russia.” They said they could not confirm any transfer let alone one approved by the Chinese government. Doesn’t mean reports are wrong, just that it isn’t clear cut.

    The NATO official also said they couldn’t corroborate South Korean intel reports of DPRK troops. Said small numbers (“handful”) might be observing use of N Korean arms but “when it comes to large numbers certainly nothing we’ve seen” on large movements “west towards the front”

    …

    I don’t think that’s it at all. I think they know that if they come out with low confidence judgments in public then their credibility will be hurt over time. It’s not as if they’ve been anything other than clear & concerned over China’s critical enabling role in Ru def industry

    YY_Sima Qian: Not the 1st time we have seen conflicting/contradictory reporting & assessment out of the US & the UK wrt the PRC transferring lethal weapons to Russia.

    I think the US & other NATO countries are waiting for confirmation. SK intelligence could be wrong, or intelligence could have been politicized (given the current SK president is of the far right wing w/ abysmal approval ratings, & has consistently taken a very hawkish stance w/ NK).

    It could be that thousands of NK troops are indeed getting acclimation/familiarization training in the eastern Siberian regions of Russia, but they have yet to move west toward the front lines, if they ever do. That would reconcile the various claims out there. I think SK intelligence is briefing NATO on what they know right now, so perhaps we will learn more in the next day or so.

    At the end of the day, there is little the US & the EU could do to punish NK or otherwise dissuade Kim the 3rd from this course of action. Decades of disengagement & letting NK & its nuclear program fester w/o establishing a stabilizing modus vivendi have removed any leverage the US & the rest of the West might have had. Much as Biden’s failure to reimplement the JPCOA w/ Iran early on during his administration eliminated any leverage the US & the EU might have had w/ Iran to influence the latter’s decision making wrt Ukraine. The PRC may not be pleased w/ NK directly intervening in the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which gives justification for the US’ efforts to further integrate its alliance networks in the North Atlantic & the “Indo-Pacific”. However, Beijing is unlikely to be interested in expending the amount of capital necessary w/ both Pyongyang & Moscow to put a stop to it, when there is unlikely to be any payoff w/ the EU & especially the US (since the Sino-US Great Power Competition overrides everything).

    The US & NATO can send aid to Ukraine in greater qty & w/ greater urgency in light of possible NK entry into the war, but that need has been there fore 2+ years now.

  18. 18.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: BTW, the NK conscripts may be malnourished & diseased, the special forces troops reportedly in Russia training for potential service in Ukraine are not. The latter are supposed to be well fed, well trained, highly motivated & deeply loyal. Of course, we shall see, even if none of us want to see.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    An analysis by Chad O’Carroll of NK New on NK’s motivations for possibly sending elite troops to fight & die in Ukraine:

    Chad O’Carroll
    @chadocl

    THREAD: A pivotal moment in the Ukraine war: North Korea has reportedly sent up to 10,000 soldiers, mostly elite special forces, to aid Russia’s invasion. This marks a major escalation in Pyongyang’s support for Moscow.
    Full NK Pro analysis

    What’s in it for North Korea?
    • Combat experience for its soldiers
    • Potential for future joint military drills
    • Monthly cash payments of $20-30M from Russia (estimated)
    • Outside of cash, more leniency on sanctions & likely also tourism

    But it’s a risky move for Pyongyang:
    • Reduces readiness for potential conflict with South Korea
    • Exposes troops to outside info, raising fears of ideological contamination
    • Deaths of soldiers could trigger domestic anger
    • Risk of war crimes damaging DPRK’s reputation

    The elite DPRK special forces, while lacking combat experience, are known for their:
    • Discipline & endurance
    • Infiltration & recon skills
    • Specialization in assassination & sabotage
    So their presence could be a major asset for Russia & a blow to Ukrainian morale.

    South Korea now faces increased pressure to directly arm Ukraine in response. Though more hawkish extremes are supportive of this, can’t rule it out. This could cause Russia to supply advanced weapons to the North, potentially turning the conflict into an inter-Korean proxy war

    What about others? The U.S. & Europe will likely view this as a serious escalation, but their bandwidth to respond may be limited amid other crises. Expect more weapons for Ukraine, fresh sanctions, and information warfare targeting DPRK troops.

    China, whose relationship with North Korea appears to be deteriorating the more Russia-DPRK ties expand, is in a tough spot. Beijing wants to appear neutral while keeping the DPRK in check. But as Russia-DPRK ties deepen, Beijing risks losing influence over its neighbor.

    Much now depends on South Korea’s next move & the U.S. election.
    • ROK weapons for Ukraine could internationalize the war
    • A Trump victory might accelerate peace talks, thereby ending the need for DPRK troops
    • Ukraine could start targeting DPRK assets in retaliation

    This last point could be really the most unpredictable aspect of all. It wouldn’t take much for Ukraine to launch drone attacks from fishing vessels in the West Sea, for example, targeting DPRK munitions factories or the leadership itself. Long-arm cyber ops also possible.

    Bottom line: North Korea’s entry marks an unpredictable new phase in the Ukraine war with far-reaching implications. As unpredictable as Kim’s regime is, one thing’s clear – the conflict just got a lot more complicated. 

    Link to full analysis below, which is behind a paywall.

    What North Korea stands to gain by sending troops to fight in Ukraine
    DPRK likely seeks Russian cash or tech, but deployment risks exposing troops to outside info and inciting wider response
    Chad O’Carroll
    October 21, 2024

  20. 20.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for all the additional information. ^__^ It never fails to impress me how informed the readers/commentators on Adam’s updates are. Far more than I am, usually.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    • A Trump victory might accelerate peace talks, thereby ending the need for DPRK troops

    This part of all the “politicians”, “experts” and “pundits” commentary, always pisses me off.

    The HUR had an agent, travel undetected to Eastern ruZZia, or activated an agent in Eastern ruZZia who tracked down, lured and killed a major ruZZian War Criminal with a hammer,

    tells me that Ukrainian’s arn’t going to line up in quiet British queues to walk slowly to the ruZZian gas chambers and Babi Yar.

    US or not, EU or not, Ukraine will fight until the end.

    They have no other choice.

    And they are not going to accept another worthless piece of paper like the “Budapest Memorandum”.

  24. 24.

    daveNYC

    I don’t think that a potential conflict with SK is a major factor in NK’s calculations.  NK has nukes and Seoul as an easy to hit artillery target.  SK isn’t going to start anything, and NK starting anything means getting the US military all up in their business.  It’s like the people saying that Russia needs station piles of troops on their thousands of miles of border, when… no they don’t.  The ‘stans can’t start shit, the NATO neighbors won’t, and China is already getting stuff and things from Russia, so why mess with a good thing.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Latest out of SK:

    (LEAD) S. Korea considering sending personnel to Ukraine to monitor N. Korean troops: source

    Chae Yun-hwan
    All News 16:55 October 22, 2024

    & some snarky commentary from Alex Luck:

    Seoul is dialing back again from “We’re going to send military help directly to Ukraine.” to “Maybe we send a bunch of bureaucrats to Kyiv to keep an eye on things.”. Its pretty pathetic if unsurprising I guess.

    Remember that like a year or so ago the popular hottake on RoK was they’re going to replace European arms manufacturers by cutting super consequential deals like they did with Poland. In hindsight those insights of course have aged like fresh milk.

    …

    Its pretty pragmatic actually. I dont blame their hard decision making. I just think their PR statements are laughable. Same as when they talk about assuming full military oversight over military forces on the Peninsula when its clear they rather leave things to the US.

  26. 26.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT: Both the Indian & the PRC Foreign Ministry have announced a deal between the two parties wrt to the disputed borders, probably along the lines of reaching a common understanding of the de facto LAC, & coordinating their patrol routes to minimize adversarial contact & posturing. It may also lead to a reduction of force deployment near the border. Since both Xi & Modi are in Kazan for the BRICS Summit, the may facilitate a bilateral meeting between the two, which would the 1st formal one since 2019.

  27. 27.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    So the guy who’s never invaded anybody in twelve years of being in power is “the Napoelonic threat,” but the guy who’s invaded two countries and is energetically using all national means at his disposal to push regime change on other major powers is nothing to be concerned about and in fact is about to become our friend any minute now.

    As the saying goes, my days of not taking the Realist community seriously are certainly coming to a middle.

  28. 28.

    KatKapCC

    Very glad to hear the doggo news, Adam.

    The video of the woman finding out she’s going to get her husband back had me crying. Hard enough to imagine going that long without seeing your spouse, let alone having to worry every single day about what’s happening to them and if you’ll ever actually see them again. Heartbreaking beyond belief.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris: From the primacist’s POV, it is quite logical & rational. The PRC is the most powerful geopolitical rival the US has faced since the start of the 20th Century, & greatest current challenge to US primacy. Kurt Campbell frames the PRC as the greatest challenge in the US’ history, exceeding that of the Cold War. (To US primacy, yes, to US homeland security & American way of life, no.) Tech containment of the PRC is the only priority that Jake Sullivan has proudly never taken his eyes off of. (To what end & to what effect are another matter altogether.)

    That is not to say Chinese primacy is likely In Asia, let alone the world. We live in an increasingly multipolar world, after all, & almost all of the PRC’s neighbors will naturally want to hedge & balance against its rise, & they prefer to keep the US engaged in the region to that end, but not to preserve US primacy, & certainly not jeopardizing their economic wellbeing & developmental goals to preserve US primacy.

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT: CNN reporting on the Sino-Indian deal (seems to be a de-confliction agreement for patrols along the ill-defined LAC in disputed Aksai Chin region):

    India and China have struck a deal that could ease tension along its disputed border
    By Simone McCarthy and Aishwarya S Iyer, CNN
    4 minute read
    Published 6:24 AM EDT, Tue October 22, 2024

    Both parties remain coy on the specifics of the deal, which probably reflects an attempt to prevent nationalist passions from derailing the progress. We’ll see if Xi & Modi hold a bilateral on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit being held in Kazan, Russia.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris:

    As the saying goes, my days of not taking the Realist community seriously are certainly coming to a middle.

    On this point specifically, it is only the Offensive Realists committed to US primacy who are obsessed w/ waging Cold War & preparing for hot war against the PRC, alongside non-Realists such as Neocons & Liberal Hegemonists. The Realist Restrainers advocate for reaching a stabilizing modus vivendi w/ the PRC, incentivize desired behavior through both carrots & sticks/threats & reassurances, prioritizing collaboration to address common concerns (such as AGW) & not Great Power Competition, & avoiding maximalist goals for the US. Same for the Left Wing IR scholars.

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