Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans do not trust women.

The press swings at every pitch, we don’t have to.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Not rolling over. fuck you, make me.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

Democracy cannot function without a free press.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Speaker Mike Johnson is a vile traitor to the House and the Constitution.

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Come on, man.

If you don’t believe freedom is for everybody, then the thing you love isn’t freedom, it is privilege.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

You are here: Home / Healthcare / COVID-19 / COVID-19 Coronavirus & H5N1 Updates: October 23, 2024

COVID-19 Coronavirus & H5N1 Updates: October 23, 2024

by | 31 Comments

This post is in: , ,

This is an important story, and yet it doesn’t change what ‘we’ need to do right at the moment. “Inside the Bungled Bird Flu Response, Where Profits Collide With Public Health”:

… [O]n March 25, the USDA lab confirmed that dairy cows in Texas and Kansas had indeed been sickened by a form of bird influenza known as H5N1. Though versions of the so-called bird flu virus have circled the globe for almost two decades, spreading to species ranging from pelicans and polar bears to sea lions and skunks, the announcement stunned the scientific and agricultural communities. “Every honest virologist will tell you: We did not see this coming,” says Kimberly Dodd, dean of Michigan State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine.

With continued spread amongst cows, or to another “mixing-vessel” species like pigs, the virus “could mix and match, then you get a whole new genetic constellation,” says Jürgen Richt, regents and university distinguished professor at Kansas State University. Experts are hesitant to speculate about what could happen if the virus were to begin more widely infecting humans, for fear of spreading panic, but the toll could, in the worst case, dwarf that of COVID-19. If the virus “infects a person infected with a human flu strain, and something comes out that is reassorted and adapted to humans? I don’t even want to imagine,” Richt says. “Not good.”…

At that existential moment back in March, when the virus was first detected in cows, veterinarians involved in the response had every expectation that a well-honed network of experts, led by USDA scientists, would immediately rev to life.

But it didn’t. “Nobody came,” says one veterinarian in a Western state. “When the diagnosis came in, the government stood still. They didn’t know what to do, so they did nothing.”

Now, H5N1 has spread to more than 324 dairy herds in 14 states and has sickened at least 26 farm workers exposed to infected cows and poultry. Those numbers are widely assumed to be vast undercounts, as there is no formal nationwide surveillance program, many dairy farmers oppose testing, and few farm workers are being screened….

Big dairy farms — not least in places like central California, which sent Devin Nunes to Congress — are more concerned about minimizing their financial losses (profitable milk-producing bio-units turned into sunk cost disposals) than they are about a (so far) handful of low-wage human workers who’ve contracted a messy cold with pinkeye. State and national government agencies need to step up their enforcement, but that’s not something you or I or presumably anyone reading Balloon Juice has the power to command. So: Stay watchful, don’t drink raw milk, and wash your hands after any contact with farm animals, stray wildlife & ferals, or bird poop (cleaning feeders). Which I assume we’re all doing anyway!

***********

No new BNO numbers this week — I don’t know if the site has stopped reporting on covid (they’re still covering H5N1) or if it’s just a twitter glitch. Meanwhile, their previously dormant sister site has been reactivated:


PANDEMIC MITIGATION COLLABORATIVE

======

… Chinese scientists were among the first to report Long Covid in people who survived the acute phase of Covid-19. However, these early seminal Chinese studies on Long Covid were exclusively from Wuhan – where the pandemic originated. Because of China’s zero Covid policies, infection rates plummeted quickly in Wuhan and were very low and sporadic outside of Wuhan for much of 2020, 2021, and 2022. However, China relaxed its zero Covid policies at the end of 2022 which led to explosion of cases – hundreds of millions of Chinese got infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the weeks and months following the lifting of zero Covid policies.

Now a report by Qin and colleagues provides insights into the colossal scale of Long Covid that resulted from those infections. Their large-scale survey of 74,075 Chinese participants, one of the largest studies of its kind and the first from China, shows that approximately 10%–30% of survey participants reported experiencing Long Covid symptoms such as fatigue, memory decline, decreased exercise ability, and brain fog. The features of Long Covid in China mirror those observed in studies conducted in other parts of the world. This underscores the consistency of Long Covid features across national borders, cultures and healthcare settings.

Interestingly, the authors show that despite having milder acute symptoms during reinfection, participants who experienced multiple infections were more likely to experience various Long Covid symptoms with greater severity. The authors show that having two infections is risk factor for many long-term Covid symptoms, and the risk increased exponentially when the number of infections exceeded two. These new data on Long Covid risk after reinfection are remarkably consistent with prior studies.

Another critical insight from the study is the protective role of Covid-19 vaccines in reducing the incidence and severity of Long Covid. The data shows that vaccination, particularly with multiple booster shots, significantly decreases the risk of developing long-term symptoms. These findings are consistent with other studies showing that vaccines reduce the risk of Long Covid. Despite this, Covid-19 vaccine policies in much of the world consider effectiveness of vaccines in reducing risks of hospitalization and death during the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection (which are most evident in older adults and people with comorbidities) and ignore their protective effect on Long Covid – a condition that affects people across the lifespan including young adults and children. Consequently, restrictive vaccine policies exclude children, young and healthy adults who may benefit from the beneficial effects of vaccine on Long Covid. Vaccine policies must holistically consider the benefit profile of Covid-19 vaccines including their effects in lowering the risk of Long Covid…

======

This will be overkill for many (most) people, but for immunicompromised individuals & those in high-risk occupations, it might be worth investigating:

… What you normally think of as a home COVID test—like the kind you can order for free from the government—is a rapid antigen test. When these at-home COVID tests became available, they were a powerful tool to help people know they were positive so they could isolate themselves from others. Almost all at-home tests were lateral flow tests, also known as rapid antigen tests (RATs). They measure for proteins on the outside of SARS-C0V-2, but they have a major flaw: They can only detect active virus. If you’re asymptomatic or don’t have a high viral load yet, the RAT may show negative results while you have an active and contagious infection.

This is why, if you already have symptoms, a negative antigen test isn’t conclusive. You may need to test a number of times to confirm you have COVID. When you first get sick, you may go a number of days (as many as five) without enough virus to set off a positive RAT test. RATs were designed to be taken multiple times in sequence.

A PCR, also known as a NAAT or molecular test, measures RNA and can detect even small amounts of the virus. This is why it has always been considered the “gold standard” of COVID testing. These tests are generally considered accurate starting one to three days before you experience symptoms. Until last year, you needed to get a PCR from a testing center, but home tests have evolved and there are now four rapid, at-home molecular COVID tests, meaning you test and get a result within 30 minutes…

======

***********

Excellent news: It looks like we can stop worrying about the potential Marburg epidemic:

Reader Interactions

31Comments

  1. 1.

    KrackenJack

    @AL Thank you so much for the ongoing round-ups. I see a few of these on Mastodon, but never more than 25%.

    Today’s update also serves to remind me to schedule our flu shots. We got our Covid boosters early for a trip and now we’re back (and still jet-lagged).

  2. 2.

    TBone

    As always, thank you for staying on this – today I’m especially grateful to learn that I’m no longer forced to rely on my shoddy local healthcare system or forced to beg for a PCR test.

  4. 4.

    Lapassionara

    Many thanks for gathering this information for us. This is so helpful for those of us with compromised immune systems.

  5. 5.

    NorthLeft

    My sincere thanks for continuing this valuable reporting.

    I’ll add to to J-MC’s observation of the pandemic whiners, that this is the same group of people who are constantly freaking out over caravans of Venezuelans taking over their gated communities.

    Yet, they are more than happy to risk their lives and long term health, and their families, friends, and communities against a virus because it inconveniences them.

    Gawd, those people disgust me.

  6. 6.

    Booger

    Okay, full disclosure…I’m one of those raw milk drinkers, obtained from a cow-share farm about three miles away from where I live. We’ve known the young family who runs the dairy for a long time; they’re smart, realistic, informed…not patchouli-scented moonchildren or spittle-flecked anti-gummit preppers or animal-abusing religious fanatics. Exactly how freaked out should I be? I want to support them but at the same time have a realistic understanding of the actual risk involved.

  7. 7.

    New Deal democrat

    In terms of COVID levels, this week’s news is very encouraging. Per the CDC, the level of wastewater particles, at 2.27 per million, is almost 75% lower than the summertime peak. Compare with the lows this past spring, which were almost 85% lower. This is simply the biggest autumn lull since 2021. Among regions, only the northeast shows an increase – from levels one week previously which were close to an all time low. Biobot also shows a continued decline, at a very low level, with all four census regions participating.

    Deaths from the summer wave peaked during the week of August 31 at 1,239. The preliminary figure in that week was 663 deaths. By September 29 the preliminary number had declined to 499, and the final number to 997. During the latest week of reporting, October 12, the preliminary number had declined to 327, suggesting a final toll of about 700-800. Since wastewater levels have continued to decline since then, per the above, in coming weeks deaths should continue to decline to levels on the order of 400-550.

    Again, it is very encouraging that there is an autumn lull, which has not occurred at all in the past several years.

    Variant proportions will not be updated until this Friday. As of October 12, the KP.x variants which were dominant this summer have declined to about 75% of all new cases, with the new back-cross variant, XEC, at 10.7%. This will probably be the dominant variant this winter. But because the total number of cases have been declining sharply, this suggests that this new variant is not sparking any new wave (i.e., it is an increasing share of a lower total).

  8. 8.

    Betsy

    Just another reason, I’ll stick with limiting my meat consumption, buying  and dairy and eggs  only from small farmers, that I personally can meet.

    It doesn’t eliminate the risk, but the bigger point is  I’m not about to send any of my money to factory farm producers and their profiteering.

  9. 9.

    jonas

    @Booger: It’s not worth the risk. The purported health benefits of raw vs. pasteurized usually come with a heaping helping of woo and the downsides of getting sick, especially for children, are legion and serious.

  10. 10.

    jonas

    Getting my updated booster today! Hope I get to choose something other than Moderna because that always kicks my ass for 24-48 hrs afterwards.

  11. 11.

    bluefoot

    @Booger: Can you ask them if they test their cows?  What their practices are to keep their cows from getting infected?

    AL – Thanks for continuing to do these news and link roundups!  I can’t believe we’re 4.5 years into this…

    The next pandemic is pretty much inevitable, it’s just a question of when and what it will be.  It seems like we’re willfully unlearning the lessons of 2020-2021. Or maybe retaining the wrong lessons?

    I got my COVID booster a few weeks ago and missed out on the work-provided flu shot, so that’s for Friday at the pharmacy.  I’ve noticed an uptick in mask wearing here in Boston, though it’s still a rarity.  But I’ve gone from the only person masking in public to one of a handful.

  12. 12.

    Another Scott

    Thanks for keeping us informed, AL.

    The AppleNews tweet link thing about the personal PCR test gizmos didn’t work for me. Here’s a direct Lifehacker.com story about it.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  13. 13.

    Percysowner

    Thanks for these updates. I’m going to get my COVID and Flu shots on Friday. That will give me the weekend to recover if they hit me hard.

  14. 14.

    jonas

    @Booger: Note, in my comment above, I was thinking mainly of salmonella, e. coli, listeria and similar bacterial infections transmitted through milking equipment, human handlers, etc. which are well known risks associated with raw milk. But now of course there’s also the bird flu issue.

  15. 15.

    Glidwrith

    @Booger: What is it you are looking for? Evidence abounds that raw milk can and does carry a host of diseases. I am a biologist and I would rather eat food off my dirty kitchen floor than drink raw milk.

    Do you really want to be patient zero who mixes H5N1 with another flu strain, allowing human to human transmission of this disease?

  17. 17.

    Harrison Wesley

    Got my vax back in August.  Continue masking pretty much anywhere (using KN95’s because they’re cheap).  Also blow Covixyl up my nose before going to any confined area, although I suspect the effect is more for my mental than physical health.  Wish they’d get those nasal vaccines happening; could really be a game-changer.

  19. 19.

    Yarrow

    AL, thanks so much for these updates. They’re so helpful and interesting.

    Rwanda has done amazing work with the Marburg virus. They take their public health very seriously.

  21. 21.

    beckya57

    As others said, thank you for doing these, it’s obviously a lot of work and it’s convenient for us to have all of this information in one place.  This topic is very much on my (foggy) mind at the moment, as my lovely 50th (!!) HS reunion last week has turned into a super-spreader.  3 definite and 3 possible Covid cases right now, with me as one of the possibles (3 of us are symptomatic but haven’t tested positive).  So yes indeed it’s still out there.  Fortunately we’re a very science-oriented group, with multiple scientists and health care professionals, so most of us are fully vaxxed and symptoms have been unpleasant but nothing terribly serious (2 are taking Paxlovid).  I’ll test again today, but am assuming I have it and have been staying home and avoiding contacts with others.

  22. 22.

    beckya57

    @Yarrow: yes, I’ve been very impressed with that too, particularly given that country’s relatively recent tragic history.  Nice to see they’ve got good people in charge now.

  24. 24.

    Another Scott

    @Booger: Everything’s fine until it isn’t.  And when it isn’t, it’s often too late.

    Remember the 1996 Odwalla E. coli outbreak? They sold unpasteurized fruit juice…

    Pasteurization has saved countless millions of lives:

    [Nathan] Straus donated pasteurization equipment to the city’s orphan asylum, an institution so gruesome that its children suffered a death rate four times worse than that of children in general. Forty-four percent of the children there died in 1897. The following year, with Straus’s milk the only change, the rate dropped to 20 percent. Straus’s philanthropic crusade saw him provide support for 297 milk stations in 36 cities, which dispensed more than 24 million glasses and bottles of milk over a quarter-century. Gordon reports that the U.S. infant mortality rate dropped from 125.1 per thousand in 1891 to 15.8 in 1925. Straus directly saved an estimated 445,800 children’s lives, and his crusade for mandatory pasteurization indirectly saved millions more lives.

    Bottom line: We can’t see bacteria. We cannot trust our senses that unpasteurized food is safe.

    Be careful.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  25. 25.

    Fair Economist

    The cow strain of H5N1 is now particularly likely to become more transmissible in humans. It can infect cows pretty readily, but to get from one herd to another it needs a carrier – and humans are currently able to do it. This creates strong pressure for the virus to get better at infecting humans, because if it’s in a herd, it’s going to infect most or all the cows – but then die out if it can’t hitch a ride to the next herd.

    Most human diseases seem to come from domesticated or commensal animals, at least partly (flu, for example, also infects pigs).

  27. 27.

    glc

    A few things on the side. Covid and:

    Got my last Covid case at the start of the month so I’ll be deferring this vaccination round for 3 months (apparently four is better but  more travel is coming up).

    I took Paxlovid as a precaution, which my doctor believes is basically pointless. A smart and observant fellow, generally speaking, but not someone I would quote as an authority on these specific issues. But his view is that Pfizer hasn’t sought wider approval as they suspect it’s basically useless for most of the population (or most of the vaccinated population, which may be the more relevant point).

    Anyway I’ve had two cases so far, each treated with Paxlovid, both entirely over in five days as far symptoms and tests are concerned. I took Paxlovid not to treat the disease as such, but to diminish the risk of long term effects; though as far as i recall there isn’t any particular evidence on that point.

    I do have some friends with long Covid and the incidence and symptoms seem very random at this point, but in any case quite serious. It doesn’t seem that rationally there is much one can do at this time to avoid it, or to mitigate it, other than avoiding Covid itself to the extent possible.

  28. 28.

    mr perfect

    @Booger: I don’t drink milk since I’m allergic to dairy products but I suffered from a UTI last year which was diagnosed to be E-Coli.  I have no idea how I became infected since I didn’t consume it (my kidneys weren’t infected) and it wasn’t from unsafe sexual activity or any sexual activity since my wife was away.  What it did was blow up my prostate and it took about four months to recover.  In the meantime I was tested for prostate and bladder cancer as well as sent to hospital emergency for potential blood clots as my d-dimer readings were nine times what they should have been, only to have an ultra sound show I had no clots.  I also lost 14 lb.  I’ve had Covid-19 twice (I keep up with my vaccine shots) and the E-Coli infection was way worse.  I consider myself lucky that the infection didn’t go further into my kidneys which would have happened had I consumed any product containing E-Coli.  You should factor that into your decision to continue consuming raw dairy products.

  29. 29.

    mr perfect

    The tweet from the twit by the entity calling themselves “Lady of Summerisle.”  Lord Summerisle was the character who ruled the Scottish island also named after himself in the 1973 horror movie “The Wicker Man” which was about a police constable investigating the disappearance of a young girl on the island.  The constable finds the islanders worship paganism and suspects they perform human sacrifices.  How unaware do you have to be making that tweet while naming yourself after a cult?

  31. 31.

    Chris T.

    A day late but I’ll mention: seem to be fully over my COVID. Even the congestion is back down to almost-normal-allergies level.

Comments are closed.