Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing okay. She’s moving a bit slow and having a moderately strong reaction to her final chemo therapy treatment. This is not unexpected and she’ll get back to her more normal self in a couple of days. Thanks for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, I’ve had a very, very long day. I have another tomorrow, so I’m just going to do the basics tonight.
The AP informs us that Secretary Austin has confirmed that North Korean Special Forces have been deployed to Russia:
The U.S. said Wednesday that 3,000 North Korean troops have deployed to Russia and are training at several locations, calling the move very serious and warning that those forces will be “fair game” if they go into combat in Ukraine.
The deployment raises the potential for the North Koreans to join Russian forces in Ukraine and suggests expanded military ties between the two nations as Moscow seeks weapons and troops to gain ground in a grinding war that has stalemated after more than two years.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called it a “next step” after the North has provided Russia with arms, and said Pyongyang could face consequences for aiding Russia directly. His comments were the first public U.S. confirmation of North Korea sending troops to Russia — a development South Korean officials disclosed but was denied by Pyongyang and Moscow.
White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. believes that at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers traveled by ship to Vladivostok, Russia’s largest Pacific port, in early to mid-October.
In the center of Moscow, Russians are already happily taking pictures with officers from the DPRK. pic.twitter.com/NNOtbZVf2a
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 23, 2024
🇰🇵🇺🇸 “We don’t exactly know what these guys [Korean soldiers in Russia] are gonna do”, – John Kirby
P.S. 🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️ pic.twitter.com/0qQskd0doH
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) October 23, 2024
And? You will do something, right? RIGHT??
(unlikely) https://t.co/PBFIZJXNdc— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 23, 2024
Let’s not be hasty…
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Major Focus Is on Challenging Directions in the Donetsk Region, and the Needs of Our Warriors, Brigades for Timely Supplies from Partners – Address by the President
23 October 2024 – 20:06
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day.
I held a meeting with the Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, on current issues and some urgent decisions that need to be made. There was also a meeting with the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, about monitoring the implementation of NSDC decisions and preparing some military agenda for the next meeting of the Staff.
Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report on the frontline situation and the Kursk operation. The major focus is on challenging directions in the Donetsk region. And also, the needs of our warriors and our combat brigades for timely supplies from partners. Timeliness always means better results. Today, I want to highlight the efforts of our warriors: the 38th separate marine brigade – this is the Pokrovsk direction – and the 79th separate airborne assault brigade – this is the Kurakhove direction. Thank you, guys!
We also have some important news from the United States – America has approved a decision to provide $20 billion. These are funds sourced from frozen Russian assets. Part of the G7 decision on $50 billion for Ukraine – for our defense, for our resilience. This is something that will really support us. And it is important to implement it within this year. I thank the United States, I thank the entire Group of Seven.
And one more thing.
Today, there was a meeting with representatives of our Ukrainian civil society. Many organizations were involved – foreign policy, defense sector development, human rights, freedom protection. Among them was Maksym Butkevych – a Ukrainian human rights activist and warrior whom we recently managed to free from Russian captivity. We discussed in detail the Victory Plan and our need for unity – collectively restoring justice for Ukraine, bringing peace closer, and communicating with our partners on all matters that can make Ukraine stronger. We are counting on unity in promoting our partners’ decision to invite Ukraine to NATO. And also, in our defense system development. We should be more active in urging our partners to be decisive in defense cooperation. And we must also work together on steps that will help Ukraine recover more quickly from this war.
I thank everyone who helps! Glory to all those who fight for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
The reason:
Meet Britney, call sign “Captain”. She is a former member of the Canadian Armed Forces. She served as a tank crew commander on a Leopard tank.
When Canada delivered the first Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Britney came to Ukraine to train crews as an instructor. Now she serves as a… pic.twitter.com/UmAZO6fbS4
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 23, 2024
Meet Britney, call sign “Captain”. She is a former member of the Canadian Armed Forces. She served as a tank crew commander on a Leopard tank.
When Canada delivered the first Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Britney came to Ukraine to train crews as an instructor. Now she serves as a gunner.
“I will do my best to be effective on the battlefield and help Ukraine stay free and independent,” Britney says.
📷: 25th Airborne Brigade
Britain:
The UK is donating an additional £120 million toward the Maritime Capability Coalition within the #UDCG.
The donation will finance the delivery of maritime drones—aerial and uncrewed boats, as well as surveillance radars to protect the Grain Corridor.
We are grateful to our… pic.twitter.com/WsNHFjuM88
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 23, 2024
The UK is donating an additional £120 million toward the Maritime Capability Coalition within the #UDCG.
The donation will finance the delivery of maritime drones—aerial and uncrewed boats, as well as surveillance radars to protect the Grain Corridor.
We are grateful to our British friends for their leadership in Maritime Coalition and unwavering support!
🇺🇦🤝🇬🇧
@DefenceHQ
A new group of Ukrainian pilots has graduated from RAF Elementary Flying Training.
The next step is advanced fast jet training & conversion to F-16 with partner nations.
A heartfelt thank you to the United Kingdom for their unwavering support! 🇺🇦🇬🇧@RoyalAirForce pic.twitter.com/B13QiT1jJF
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) October 23, 2024
France:
“the first batch of Mirage fighter jets for Ukraine will consist of three aircraft, and that France plans to deliver them “in the first quarter” of 2025…By that time, they must complete the preparation of the vehicles & training of pilots & engineers.” https://t.co/nuecjyupm3
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 23, 2024
From Ukrainska Pravda:
The first batch of Mirage 2000-5s that France intends to supply to Ukraine will contain three aircraft, according to information obtained by the French media outside official channels.
Source: La Tribune with reference to unofficial sources, writes European Pravda
Details: Journalists learned that the first batch of Mirage fighter jets for Ukraine will consist of three aircraft, and that France plans to deliver them “in the first quarter” of 2025 (January-April). By that time, they must complete the preparation of the vehicles and the training of pilots and engineers.
The aircraft will be armed with SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles and French AASM air-to-surface guided bombs. The French Ministry of Defence did not comment on this information.
Background:
- French Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu said that the delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine is scheduled for the first quarter of 2025.
- In September, the Minister of Defence of Ukraine said that negotiations are also underway with partners on the Swedish Saab JAS-39 Gripen and the German-UK Eurofighter Typhoon.
South Korea:
Estonian Reserve Soldier Artur Rehi has an interesting take on what South Korea might do or could do in response to Kim deploying North Korean Special Forces to Russia:
Sending North Korean troops to Ukraine could be a serious mistake for Putin for a number of reasons, one of which is the active position of South Korea. Seoul has declared its readiness to begin providing direct military assistance to Ukraine, including the supply of
1/12artillery, tanks and other modern weapons. South Korea is one of the world’s largest defense powers with a powerful military-industrial base, whose products are in demand all over the world. South Korea’s decision to join the conflict could significantly change the balance
2/12of power. South Korea has not only high-tech weapons, but also trained military specialists who can provide advisory support to Ukraine in the fight against North Korean troops. The South Koreans are well aware of the specifics of the actions of North Korean forces: their
3/12strategies, methods of warfare and the psychological state of soldiers under constant threat of reprisals. Moreover, South Korea can provide linguistic and intelligence assistance, facilitating interaction with the North Korean military on the battlefield. For Putin,
4/12North Korean troops may seem like a beneficial addition to Russian forces. North Korean soldiers are accustomed to strict discipline and unquestioning obedience to orders, even the most brutal and dangerous ones. Putin needs “cannon fodder”, and North Korea can become a
5/12source of these resources. Russian tactics remain unchanged: the destruction of the settlements by aircraft and artillery, followed by ground assaults. North Korea has probably sent one of the world’s most brutal special forces, which once guarded the father of dictator
6/12Kim Jong-un, to fight against Ukraine, Bild reports. The publication calls them “combat slaves”, because they grew up in an information vacuum: without the Internet, communications, phones and Western TV. However, South Korea’s intervention could lead to serious consequences
7/12for Russia. Sending its troops to Ukraine, as well as supplying weapons, could push other countries to follow its example. South Korean weapons and technology will give Ukraine a new advantage, and their specialists will help cope with the threat from North Korean soldiers.
8/12De-escalation does not work. Current methods of containing Russian aggression, such as a ban on the use of Western weapons to strike Russia itself, have proven ineffective. However, Putin’s actions could become a catalyst for new decisive steps by the West. The United
9/12States has allocated a new $400 million defense aid package to Ukraine. This was announced by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv. If restrictions on the use of Western weapons are lifted and Ukraine receives all the
10/12
Portugal:
A memorial to the victims of the Holodomor
The Kursk cross border offensive:
New: 1000s of North Korean soldiers in Russia will be sent to fight Ukrainian troops in Kursk in the next week, Kyiv intel officials told @FT. They added that overall more than 12,000 North Koreans arrived in the far east of Russia ahead of deployment. https://t.co/fT532pibIb
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 23, 2024
From The Financial Times:
Thousands of North Korean soldiers in Russia will be sent to fight Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region in the next week, Kyiv intelligence officials have warned.
The officials said that overall more than 12,000 North Koreans had arrived in the far east of Russia ahead of their deployment in Kursk, although other countries differed on the size of Pyongyang’s force.
US defence secretary Lloyd Austin also said on Wednesday that Washington was “seeing evidence that there are North Korean troops that have gone to Russia”. North Korea moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia from early to mid October, according to the White House.
While South Korea and Ukraine have previously said Pyongyang had sent troops, Austin’s comments marked the first time the US had confirmed the North Koreans’ presence in Russia.
“If they’re a cobelligerent, their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” Austin said. “It will have impacts not only in Europe — it will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.”
The troops were undergoing training at military sites in eastern Russia and it was not clear whether they would enter combat in Ukraine, though “this is certainly a highly concerning probability”, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said later on Wednesday.
Should North Korean soldiers enter into combat, it would be an “unprecedented level of military co-operation” between Russia and North Korea with significant security implications in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, Kirby said.
Ukraine’s western allies are increasingly concerned about North Korea’s role. While Pyongyang has provided Russia with missiles and millions of artillery shells, the deployment of military units marks the first foray of a foreign country’s army in the conflict.
The Ukrainian officials said that recent information had led them to revise up the total number of North Koreans to 12,000, including special forces, and that “thousands” would be dispatched to Kursk, in the south of the country, by the end of the month.
Last week President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 10,000 North Koreans had been sent to Russia.
The Kyiv officials added that the soldiers had been personally sent off by North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un in a ceremony this month.
Ukraine captured an area of about 600 sq km in Kursk in a surprise raid in August, and hopes to use it as a bargaining chip in any negotiations with Russia to end the war.
The North Korean troops have been filmed receiving Russian military uniforms and equipment at a training ground in Russia’s far east, according to the South Korean government.
Both Ukrainian and South Korean officials said the troops have been given false documents identifying them as Buryats, an indigenous group in Siberia, to allow Moscow and Pyongyang plausible deniability about their involvement.
South Korean officials suggested this week that the North Korean troop deployment to Russia could convince Seoul to supply direct lethal military aid to Ukraine for the first time.
A presidential official told South Korean state media that Seoul would consider sending Kyiv defensive weapons, “and if a threshold is exceeded, we could ultimately consider offensive weapons as well”.
Moscow’s possible reliance on North Korean troops “would be a sign of weakness, not strength, on the part of the Kremlin”, Kirby said.
More at the link.
Two points. First, it may be a sign of Russian weakness, but there are going to be between 3,000 (the low end estimate) and 12,000 (the high end estimate) of these Korean Special Forces on the battlefield that will have to be dealt with.
Second, it makes perfect sense for the Russians to disguise these guys as Buryats. The Buryats, as well as the Tyvans, are ethnic Mongols who live in ethnic “republics” – Buryatia and Tyvan – on the Russian side of the steppe. The Buryats have a long history of serving in the Russian, Soviet, and now Russian (again) military. They’ve taken disproportionately high casualties in Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. And there’s a lot of physiognomically visual overlap in how the North Koreans and the Buryats look. This is supposed to give Putin and Kim the ability to claim that no, the North Korean Special Forces are not fighting against Ukraine, those are Buryats. The North Korean Special Forces are in eastern Russia doing multinational training.
If nothing is true, anything is possible.
Pokrovsk:
The Kara-Dag Brigade’s artillery is striking enemy positions in the Pokrovsk direction.
📹: @ng_ukraine pic.twitter.com/aFVrCP2KJW
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 23, 2024
Ukrainian soldier of the “Skala” unit single-handedly repels the assault of the Russian assault group. Pokrovsk front. https://t.co/WyMp4vhofZ pic.twitter.com/VGvhwXVOA6
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 23, 2024
Chasiv Yar:
Chasov Yar. Another city of Donbass destroyed and annihilated by the Russian army. There are no residents left.
Genocide in its purest form. pic.twitter.com/s5gIXNuoSy
— Денис Казанський (@den_kazansky) October 23, 2024
Irpin:
Remember that ill-fated destroyed bridge between Kyiv and Irpin through the debris of which people were fleeing to save their lives from advancing Russians during the Battle of Kyiv?
Here’s what the place looks like today. They built another bridge, and now a memorial site was… pic.twitter.com/Jye7ZhQXb7
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 22, 2024
Remember that ill-fated destroyed bridge between Kyiv and Irpin through the debris of which people were fleeing to save their lives from advancing Russians during the Battle of Kyiv?
Here’s what the place looks like today. They built another bridge, and now a memorial site was established.
I was there at the beginning and the end of the battle — and I must say a human-made miracle happened in there.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
We are fighting the Russian army, which Belarus and Iran are supporting, and now North Korea — just a typical Wednesday for Ukrainians. Once again, we stand on the brink of winter, on the verge of new, horrific missile attacks. Some say challenges are given to those who can… pic.twitter.com/4O3oekGrtG
— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 23, 2024
We are fighting the Russian army, which Belarus and Iran are supporting, and now North Korea — just a typical Wednesday for Ukrainians. Once again, we stand on the brink of winter, on the verge of new, horrific missile attacks. Some say challenges are given to those who can handle them. We can, and we are unafraid. But is the world not afraid to witness the creation of such a powerful military alliance? When history books will write, “It should have been stopped at the beginning, but…” And what follows the “but” is precisely what we are witnessing right now. Only we see it in reality. In 100K resolution.
If you can support Ukraine, please continue doing so every day. Without you, it’s tough for us to fight so many furious states. Thank you for everything ❤️
Open thread!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
Now I can go to bed with a clear conscience!
Jay
Thank you Adam.
Jay
The US and German counter to this will be a “very concerned’ note to the ruZZian’s thus matching the escalation.
Gin & Tonic
Funny (not ha-ha funny) story. A friend unearthed video of an old (mutual) friend giving a talk at a conference in Canada in 1985 – during the time, for those who recall, of the US Justice Dept’s OSI and Canada’s Deschenes Commission – on Soviet disinformation. Other than the obviously somewhat dated emphasis on newspapers, every KGB tactic described is recognizable today. Actual funny part, is who shows up as a subject at one point – our old friend and current non-resident of the US, Dimitri Simes.
ssdd
In regards to the various comments by US officials along the lines of “well, they’re there but we don’t know what they’re going to do,” I’m no defense expert or anything, but I’m pretty sure I know what they’re going to do. My only question is, when they do, how much is my country going to disappoint me again.
Jay
@ssdd:
| |
This much,………………………..
Viva BrisVegas
The genuine Axis of Evil, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Trump.
KatKapCC
“We don’t know what they’re gonna do” — well, I’m pretty sure they’re not there to teach underwater basket-weaving, buddy. Good Lord.
I love Zelensky’s shirt. If only they had the willing coalition necessary to achieve it…
KatKapCC
@Viva BrisVegas: I feel like Trump is the Discworld turtle on which the other members of the axis are resting.
YY_Sima Qian
Unfortunately, as I said in a post a couple of days ago, there is nothing the US, the EU or SK can do to dissuade NK from the directly participating in the aggression against Ukraine (if Kim the 3rd so chooses), they have no leverage. Decades of disengagement & sanctioning to the hilt have removed any leverage any of them might have had. The only hope is that operating in an alien physical & cultural terrain, a totally unfamiliar way of war dominated by presence of drones, as well as poor coordination w/ other Russian arms, will make the NK special forces much less effective than feared. Given their past performance in low intensity conflict w/ SK, I don’t think we can count on them being ineffective to begin w/ (as much of the Russian military proved to be early in the re-invasion).
As for SK, I think we should temper expectations, too. Putin can more directly threaten SK interests by providing more nuclear, ballistic/cruise missile and submarine tech. to NK, in a way that NK troops fighting & dying in far away Ukraine does not. Unless SK calculates that Putin is doing all of that already, & thus there is little to lose by going all the way in terms of supporting Ukraine. If NK troops do end up on the front in Ukraine, my WAG is that SK will indeed send advisors to help the Ukrainian Army familiarize w/ their new opponent; SK could send greater arms & munitions but may not prioritize donations to Ukraine over their existing domestic & foreign orders.
Chris
@Viva BrisVegas:
Time to remake that opening scene from The Naked Gun. This time with Putin, MBS, Bibi, Assad, Kim Jong Un, Khamenei, and Trump.
Drebin [pulls off Trump’s wig; looks gravely at the camera]: “I knew it.”
Chet Murthy
Yeah boyeeez, if only the West had done like China and done whatever the Kims wanted, we wouldn’t be in this sitch.
glc
So I guess Kate from Kharkiv is referencing the Star Wars meme.
Hopefully I’ve got that linked correctly.
YY_Sima Qian
@Chet Murthy: If you want to influence countries’ behavior, you have to build leverage & judiciously apply that leverage. W/o leverage you are left w/ either war or expressing moral outrage, & that’s where the US is w/ NK & Iran.
Chet Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Ohhhh yeah, and China is demonstrating that in spades.
gene108
@Chet Murthy:
I think more relevant is what if Bush, Jr. hadn’t torn up the Agreed Framework the Clinton administration negotiated with North Korea, in the 1990’s. There was a bit of opening there to give NK something to lose, if they started up their nuclear program again.
Bush, Jr. blew away that possibility very early on in his first year in office.
Trump (any Republican would have) killed the JPCOA, so Iran now has nothing to lose by ignoring the West.
Iran did try in starts and stops to engage with the West for most of this century, starting with willingness to give intelligence information on the Taliban, after 9/11 (enemy of my enemy is my friend), and was not met warmly by the U.S.
Our last two Republican presidents have set the stage for the Iran-NK-Russia military cooperation by slamming shut their Democratic predecessors attempts at opening up relations to try to prevent nuclear proliferation.
Gin & Tonic
@gene108: Nuclear non-proliferation is deader than the Monty Python parrot.
Mr. Bemused Senior
Nope.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
That plus fuel, food, metals, etc is apparently already the “deal”, along with using their veto on the NORKs behalf at the UNSC.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: So Russia is now all but openly busting the UN sanctions on NK, sanction regimes that have already been eroding when Russia & the PRC started to turn loosen enforcement since the start of the Trump Administration.
I am still surprised that Kim the 3rd is willing to throw so many from one of his most reliable regime security elements (the Ukrainian meat grinder will chew them up however effectively they are used), whatever goodies Putin is offering.
Chris
@ssdd:
“They must be here for the sheep.”
YY_Sima Qian
@gene108: Dem presidents are not without their share of the blame here. The Obama Administration did not face reality & try to engage NK as a de facto nuclear power, instead clung to the fantasy of denuclearization but also not willing to provide the reassurances that might have tempted the Kim Dynasty away from nukes as guarantee for regime security, & instead tried to wait it out (a.k.a. “strategic patience”). What they & the Trump/Biden administration ultimately ended up w/ was an increasingly rogue NK bent on building out a rudimentary nuclear triad that can put the US homeland at risk. The Biden Administration failed to reenter into the JPCOA w/ Iran when they came in, & instead tried to press hard for more concessions even though it was the US that had unilaterally exited from the arrangement, even though there was still a relatively moderate president in Iran. What they ended w/ was the Iranian hardliners taking over all levers of power, acting brutally to domestic dissent & increasing rogue regionally & internationally.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: Chris York at the KyivIndependent says direct ROK military aid to Ukraine is a very heavy lift:
The politics of helping Ukraine seems to be complicated there as well. :-(
Slava Ukrani!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Ishiyama
Has Putin run out of Chechens?
I am trying to think of how Kim would be helped by committing that much of his human resources – unless he sends his misfits and incompetents.
Chris
@gene108:
Seconded.
Iran remains U.S. foreign policy’s most perpetually missed opportunity.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: This aligns w/ the analysis from Chad O’Carroll of NK News that I posted a couple of days ago. SK will probably provide enough assistance to help blunt the impact of the NK forces (if they show up on the front lines), & will probably be unwilling or unable to actually tilt the balance on the battlefield.
Not sure about the nuances of SK arms export control laws, but NATO countries should be able to purchase SK arms & munitions & donate them to Ukraine, but that may face domestic political backlash in NATO countries that have substantial arms industries.
It is the job of the policymakers to navigate through reality.
YY_Sima Qian
@Ishiyama: By all accounts Kadyrov’s Chechens are skilled TikTok warriors good at play acting war, & generally adept at avoiding direct combat w/ Ukrainian forces. The NK troops will probably actually fight.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Never mind the North Koreans. There are a bunch of “mercenaries” , for lack of better term , from Sri Lanka in the Kursk region. The AFU just wiped out a bunch of them, & collected the passports & even drivers licences they left behind. Which begs the question, HTH did they get to Kursk without anyone seeming to notice they were even there?
Jay
@Ishiyama:
Chechens are rarely used as front line troops, their major role is as tic tok warriors and as “barrier” troops,
and now, the Chechen/Dagistani conflict is brewing up again.
NORK SOF number 200,000, so 12,000 is not a big commitment.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Very different. The Sri Lankans (& Indians, Africans & Central Asians, etc.) are poorly trained/fed/motivated fodder often press ganged into Russian service under false pretenses. The NK troops are well trained/fed/motivated, & represent NK state action.
Jay
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom:
ruZZia runs “recruiting” ops in the 2nd and 3rd world.
The way it works is recruiters “looking for” security guards, construction workers, tech people, etc.
There is a signing bonus, ruZZia does all the visa and transport, great wages compared to where they are working, if they are working, but,
When they land in ruZZia, their passports are taken, they are arrested for illegal entry, and have a choice, sign a contract for the SMO or ten years in a ruZZian prison.
They are promised that they will not go to the Zero Line, but instead dig trenches or load trucks.
Instead, they get 2 weeks “training”, fire a gun once, and they are sent to the meatcube assaults.
Indians, Columbians, Nepalese, Nigerians, etc.
Basically a copy of how the Grey Zone scammers get staff and turn them into slaves.
YY_Sima Qian
Fascinating interview between Dmitri Alperovitch & Andrey Liscovitch (of Ukrainian Defense Fund) on the current state of war in Ukraine, specifically drone warfare, electronic warfare, & use of commercial satellite imagery (click through the link for the podcast):
Shashank Joshi has a Twitter thread that summarizes the conversation if you do not want to spend an hour to listen to the podcast:
gene108
@Gin & Tonic:
It was a quaint notion while it lasted.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: At the BRICS Summit in Kazan Russia:
Indian relations w/ the Five Eyes countries have also come under strain due to the revelation of the assassination & intimidation campaign Indian intelligence has been waging against its critics among the diaspora overseas. The censure is well deserved, given the serious of the allegations/crimes, & I’d say the Biden Administration has been deafeningly silent on the topic, (probably trying to keep India on side vis-a-vis the PRC). That might have also prompted Modi to rebalance his triangulation among the West, Russia & the PRC a bit.
At best the thaw may eventually develop into détente, but probably not entente. Tanvi Madan at Brookings has read the leaves from the two parties’ readouts of the Xi-Modi meeting (click through the link for screenshots of her notes):
A summary of the official declaration of the BRICS Summit, very much aimed at the US & the West:
Beyond the verbosity, I think it is notable that the freeze in Sino-Indian relations since 2020 had prevented any semblance of a united front from the BRICS (& the SCO for that matter). Modi did not attend the 2023 Summit at Johannesburg, & the 2022 declaration did not contain so many pointed criticisms squarely aimed at the US. On Israel-Gaza/Lebanon, India signing onto this declaration seems to signal a rhetorical shift away from prior sympathy w/ Bibi.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: IDF activities in Gaza & Southern Lebanon:
The killing of the workers partnering w/ Oxfam did not cause the worldwide condemnation that killing the WCK workers did. I guess an organization needs a celebrity for the public face to be noticed.
And.
JWR
@YY_Sima Qian:
I don’t wonder why this seems so SOP for the IDF. I think we all remember this historical little “gem”:
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
True, though I’ve got some sympathy in both cases because the reasoning was clearly “there’s nothing we can build that Republicans won’t tear down immediately the next time they take power just because. Given that, I’m going to find other things to work on.”
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: I once did during the Obama terms. No more. They have no problem perpetuating & expanding the MIC, the national security & surveillance state (including continued federal funding to increasingly Fascistic local LE), & the freedom to engage in foreign military action as they see fit, w/ ever less Congressional & public oversight, know full well that these tools will eventually & inevitably be under the control of the Rs, & utilized by the Rs to further their militarist goals internationally & reactionary goals domestically.
If they don’t see the point of pursuing good policy because the Rs that eventually follow will overturn them anyway, then they don’t belong in the WH. Times in power are opportunities to shift the Overton Window, ideally toward the direction of liberalism, equality & justice, domestically & internationally. The Rs understand this dynamic exceedingly well, & have generally use their times in office to move the political landscape in the US to their preferred direction (unless the failures of their agenda, or that of the Establishment in general, have become too blindingly obvious for the general populous to ignore, as in late ’00s).
Here is a good analysis of this dynamic at play (emphasis mine):
& this critique by Van Jackson of a hagiographic profile of Jake Sullivan in the Wire Magezine:
Bill Arnold
@gene108:
nitter link
Snark aside, there are regions not interested in nuclear weapons. E.g. South America is non-nuclear (Brazil flirted). Africa is non-nuclear (South Africa destroyed theirs, Libya flirted).
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: SE Asia & the Pacific, too.
wjca
True, dat. And an opportunity to help in so many way.
Bill Arnold
@wjca:
So many lost opportunities and mistakes.
The Iranians (Iran hostage crisis, ’79-’81) help usher in Reagan and the USA’s shift to the right (lower taxes on the wealthy, for starters), and increased the politically difficultly in the USA of friendly measures towards Iran in the following decades, including to now.
(We collectively remember that hostage crisis and do not Remember the Liberty, sigh.)
glc
@Mr. Bemused Senior:
Thanks – I tried it again without being logged in there and I see the problem. Not fixable apparently.
I should make some other account for the purpose perhaps, but it doesn’t come up often.
justsomeguy05
Putin : “Hessians ? Nope, never heard of them”.
glc
… Apparently I can use postimage without even having an account (seems odd).
In which case: meme (well, probably).
Set the expiration for 7 days, no point cluttering things up indefinitely. Just testing it out. I may want to do something like that again some time.
way2blue
@Jay:
Sorta like the ‘thoughts & prayers’ quip we hear in the U.S. after a mass shooting.
way2blue
This justification—coming from our military—is flatly embarrassing. Ukraine should be the ‘decider’ as to which weapons & targets are a priority. I refuse to accept that the U.S. can’t provide the weapons Ukraine requests, then state that they’re now Ukrainian weapons, not NATO’s or the U.S.’s. With the proviso that Ukraine follow the international rules of engagement (as they’ve painstakingly been doing). Micromanaging someone else’s fight is beyond self-indulgent.
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-sign-250-million-ukraine-security-assistance-2024-09-06/
wjca
@Bill Arnold: What gets me is that, when the US was preparing to go into Afghanistan, Iran offered us FREE passage. But no, we chose to pay Pakistan millions of dollars for moving stuff. A big chunk of which money the Pakistani ISI passed to the Taliban.