I started putting together a post about John Kelly stepping up (finally!) but the noticed that Anne Laurie had already started composing a post about that for later. So ix-nay on that.
Let’s make this a political news-sharing post. What’s going on?
Anybody up for that? Please include good news, too!!!
Oh, and the Jump, You Fuckers! image is directed at the media and awful Republican everywhere, not at BJ peeps.
Lapassionara
Does anyone know what TCFG is scheduled to do today? He took yesterday off, per reports.
AxelFoley
Fristninja’d
Baud
There’s good news?
WaterGirl
@Baud: Yes!
And I see you praising Anne Laurie for her good news posts, so I’ve got your number.
MattF
Here’s an item about Giuliani’s four World Series rings. Accepting them was probably very illegal.
JaySinWA
@Lapassionara: I’m pretty sure he
did some stuffran his mouth yesterday, but I understand today’s events were canceled. Banking energy for the Joe Rogan interviewETA They announced cancelations yesterday while T was claiming Kamala was spending Tuesday sleeping.
Baud
@WaterGirl:
Guilty as charged.
The media is always trying to bring us down, and social media isn’t much better depending on who you follow. Glad to have an alternative source.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
The ‘Jump You Fuckers’ photo is always a great go-to even after all these years.
Great piece by Dan Rather on President Biden being great:
https://steady.substack.com/p/bidens-plea-to-save-democracy
Raoul Paste
I saw the story about Giuliani‘s confiscated items. One was a 1980 Mercedes-Benz formerly owned by Lauren Bacall. I tell ya, Ruby Freeman et al are going to have one hell of a Sotheby’s auction.
artem1s
I’d love to see a countdown clock to election embedded in the sidebar. I think it would help to see there is an end in sight at least for the current push. I think there’s been a NeverEnding Gobstopper feeling about this stupid infection/disease that has taken over the country.
Days Left Until We Get To Vote TCF and the Couchfornicator off the Island
JaySinWA
@Raoul Paste: I hope they have the good sense to sell most of the loot. So much of it would be a money pit to keep and maintain. Especially the properties.
MFA
Good news: Turnout is very high in OH’s Mahoning county; went with my Magnificent Other yesterday to vote early in person, as we just moved here last year—so, first general election since. Orderly, mid-afternoon crowd. General good spirits, though my sense was that everyone was eyeing one another. In and out in under 10 mins. A good omen.
JiveTurkin
If you admire nazis, you are a nazi. If you vote for a nazi, you are a nazi.
JeanneT
My bit of good news is that the county clerk officially received my absentee ballot: my vote is in! I also got a new pack of postcards in the mail: I’ll be writing to support the Democratic party endorsed state supreme court candidates here in MI: an extra little push can’t hurt.
There go two miscreants
Got back a short while ago from early voting here in Wilmington, NC. All five early voting sites in New Hanover County have been running significant lines since the start of early voting last week. Some variation over the course of the day, naturally. I had about a 30 minute wait today, but the wait at the location I used was much longer earlier (they have an online tracker for wait times).
Mousebumples
In FTFNYT (I swear it’s good news – high levels of potential schadenfreude)…
Link title – What happens if (FTF) NYT’s tech staff strikes on election night?
A message from Times journalists to executives asks: “Can you imagine if our election needle didn’t work?”
I’m thinking that they should strike at 1201am on Election Day. Nothing like a deadline to spur action!
Jackie
@JiveTurkin:
TCFG admires (worships) nazis. TCFG voted for a nazi (himself); therefore TCFG is a nazi.
WaterGirl
@MFA:
I had never seen that before!
Steve LaBonne
Why do I see so many doomers (not around here!) who seem to think Harris is behind in the polls? She’s ahead, not by much but still ahead and not behind. Just leaving aside the whole question of how predictive these polls are, getting discouraged about something that isn’t actually true is strange behavior.
WaterGirl
@MFA: That is great news!
Are you in a particularly blue area of OH? I suck at geography.
Glory b
I’m a bit freaked out. Casey (Senator from PA) has been 7-10 points ahead of McCormick the entire race, but local news reports that he’s now a point ahead of Casey, likely due to the incessant “immigrants will kill us all!!” commercials here.
Surprised also to see one of those approval polls showing 18-35 year olds approve of Trump more than 50 + do.
Revenge of the liberal boomers! Since Boomers vote in higher numbers than young people, a bright spot.
To be kinda fair, young white males seem to have higher-than-you-might-think approval ratings for Trump & Republicans than females.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
A little bit of light humor, since so many folks are on edge right now.
So, reading that article in the Atlantic about Trump wanting Hitler’s Generals, one minor little detail jumped out at me. Not Trump’s fascist dictator wannabee-ism. Not even his ignorance re: that late in the war some of the German officers tried to kill Hitler. Or his attitude to our military and the US Constitution. All of that is at this point (sadly) more or less baked in to Trump’s known awfulness generally speaking.
No, the new detail which jumped out at me reading that story was that he did not even know who Rommel was.
Now I’m a bit younger than DJT, and when I was a boy growing up, not knowing anything about WW2 was almost unheard of among young males. It was not that far in the past, and was the example ne plus ultra of two cherished principles central to American Exceptionalism (which along with Cold War Duck & Cover drills, was formally taught in schools and informally echoed in popular culture as if it was the gospel): We are the Good Guys and America always Wins.
And as the Germans were the Baddies, you had to know a least a little bit about them. Rommel was by far the most famous German general. Not Manstein, or Guderian, or Rundstedt, or Model, or any of the rest of those scum. Rommel was it. You couldn’t watch a movie or TV show about WW2 in Europe & Africa without at least a 50 percent chance of him making at bare minimum a cameo appearance.
Growing up in the generation that DJT belongs to and not knowing who Rommel was, would have been without any other offences, enough to get your Man Card taken away. What a dipshit.
WaterGirl
I added the great video from HB from the last thread. So good!
bbleh
I’ve seen the story about Republicans following orders and starting to use mail-in more than they allegedly used to (although for a while at least, and in some places, they used it MORE, basically because pre-COVID the people most likely to use mail-in were older voters who skewed Republican), BUT it has pretty much ALWAYS been received wisdom that Higher Turnout Is Good For Dems (ie, Republicans are more likely to vote), so the GIGANTIC numbers of people turning out to vote early in GA, NC, and elsewhere has made me somewhat more optimistic.
Scout211
This isn’t actual news, but I’m leaving it here just the same.
To help jackals who is overcome with anticipatory anxiety right now, I am planning to only post links that are positive for the near future.
In the FTFNYT this morning, an opinion piece from blog not-favorite Democrat, James Carville. Yes, he’s said some awful things in his pundit role but this piece is definitely not awful.
It’s not yet in web archive version but I was allowed a non-subscriber peek:
James Carville: Three Reasons I’m Certain Kamala Harris Will Win
. . .
. . .
. . .
I am full of hopium and I am feeling calm and ready to face whatever happens in November. Stay strong jackals. The brilliant Harris-Walz team has this.
Go ahead and flame my hopeful comments in the next two week. I will totally understand and accept how you think and how you feel. But it won’t knock me off of my positive, hopeful place.
Let’s do this!
ArchTeryx
One positive thing I am doing amidst some of the worst times of my life – what should be the BEST times of my life – is learning 3D modeling and animation.
The thing I started in high school in the late 1980s is now finally coming true in my 50s. Technology has marched so far, and even a n00b like me can make models it used to take supercomputers to do.
It’s a hobby, not a profession. But maybe I can turn it toward some political ends, if I learn enough to combine it with After Effects for some smashing motion graphics.
Dorothy A. Winsor
@Glory b: I’ve read that there are a ton of R polls being dumped right now. You may be seeing one of them. Courage!
Steve LaBonne
@MFA: It’s been heavy in Medina County as well, though the purpleish redness of this county makes the significance of that hard to interpret.
TBone
For all who celebrate, Tiedrich takes the weirdwashers out to the woodshed, again, today 😆
https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/elderly-fascist-demands-to-know-why
National treasure, that guy.
zhena gogolia
@Scout211: Thanks!
Scout211
@TBone: Did you get your ballot?
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Glory b: Trump has unfortunately gained ground with young men. That seems to be true regardless of race as well. Its the misogyny
Lines are long for early voting in St. Louis. Too long for me to go at lunch.
WaterGirl
@Scout211: I think your comment fits perfectly in this post!
And I, for one, welcome our new positive overlords! :-)
The Red Pen
According to a smattering of right-wing news sources, Nate Says Trump is going to Win.
The Telegraph article has this gem of a subheading: “Nate Silver, who predicted Republican’s success in 2016, says people underestimate the scale of his support”
538 predicted an 85% change of a Hillary Clinton win in 2016. This year, it is pretty much useless. I should add that Nate Silver is a “consultant” on the largest political betting site.
Geminid
There was a big story out of Turkiye this morning: three gunmen (or maybe a woman and two men) attacked an Ankara aerospace company and took hostages. Turkish authorities say the incident is now over, leaving 3 dead and 14 wounded
Omnes Omnibus
I am not going to knock anyone who is nervous about this election, but I think am going very carefully look at the media I am consuming over the next couple of weeks. Dooming doesn’t help anything. If you are worried, see if there is something more you can do. If there is, then do it. If there isn’t, then you have done all you can. Fretting won’t help. Doom spirals won’t help. Unplug. Go for a walk. Eat an edible. Whatever helps.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Scout211:
That’s debatable.
And best described by Driftglass:
TBone
@Scout211: YES!
We are voting TODAY WOO HOO!
Although the votes cannot be tabulated in Pennsylvania until the polls close on Election Day, it feels so good to mark our ballots NOW!
Update: hubby just spoke to our mail carrier, who was visiting our mailbox a second time as I typed that. Apparently the squeaky wheel gets the oil – she told him that the Post Office sent a dedicated mail truck around our municipality today, delivering ALL the ballots. So we had two postal deliveries today!
lowtechcyclist
@Raoul Paste:
I want that car. (I’ve had a crush on Lauren Bacall – as she was then, not how she is now! – ever since I first saw To Have and Have Not.) A pity there’s about zero chance I could afford it.
Scout211
Here’s some good news.
Scout211
@TBone: Yay!
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: 100% agree.
For postcarders, Postcards to Voters has addresses across the country.
Otherwise, events.democrats.org and Mobilize.us should have some things you can sign up to do. Phone banking and canvassers are great, if they work for you.
Bupalos
@WaterGirl: That would be Youngstown’s county, it’s really the heart of the realignment of rust-belt labor away from dems. Not a county we’ll win in all probability, but one you could probably watch to tell whether we’ll win. The same areas in Mi, Wi, and Pa (it’s practically on the Ohio/Pa border) will be critical.
RachelBakes
Voted early yesterday with husband. All 3 voters in our house are done (one via absentee). Early voting on the first day in our suburban CT town was 2% registered voters. Exceeds many budget referendum votes in the last 15 years. Keep it going!
Nina
When I see the anxiety and doomerism start to spread I like to remember that there are ratfucking bot farms out there specifically designed to make us despair or panic. So in order to force Mr. Putin to waste his money, I reject the doomerism and focus on the happy.
Mousebumples
@TBone: interesting. I wonder if there will be any reporting on what happened. We’re the ballots “lost” in the post office….?
Glad you have your ballots!
Baud
@Nina:
True, but a lot of it is generated by mainstream media.
Anoniminous
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Not knowing who Rommel was?
Trump is truly a man with no beginning to his knowledge
Omnes Omnibus
Harris on despair.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: I am canvassing the next two weekends.
Mousebumples
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: thanks for your efforts! I look forward to having kiddos old enough to tag along that I can get out canvassing again. (last did that in 2016)
TBone
@Mousebumples: narrator: there will be no reporting on this SNAFU where PA ballots are held at the Post Office local branch until voters raise holy hell with local officials and light a fire under someone’s ass.
But I’m still gonna alert the Secretary of State.
Mousebumples
Not political story…
Mousebumples
@TBone: 🙌🙌 I’m cheering you on!
Steve LaBonne
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: A vast majority of Americans are rational, reasonable people of good will in their personal lives and among people who resemble them. Outside that charmed circle, and in confronting public affairs, not so much.
Another Scott
Meanwhile, the GQP is determined to have no federal employees vote for them, and to gut recruitment for federal positions. GovExec.com:
Vote the monster out!!
Forward!!
Grr…,
Scott.
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: my mom had that same crush and it rubbed off on me. Gregory Peck narrates a short remembrance film on TCM about Betty, the T.B. with the H.O.G. that always gets me right in my feels too.
Redshift
TCFG has had four events in North Carolina in the past two days. If his campaign thinks he has to work to win NC, that is not a good sign for him.
TBone
@Mousebumples: 🥰😍💙
ArchTeryx
Apologies, I thought this was an open thread. You can delete mine if you want.
Mousebumples
Jackie
This is a follow up from the article I posted yesterday:
The 25th is in TWO DAYS!
I hope it adds to the media’s wall-to-wall coverage of former CoS John Kelly’s statements about TCFG’s distain for our service members who died fighting for our freedom and democracy.
Redshift
@Mousebumples:
Oh, that is awesome!
TBone
@Mousebumples: there is a famous poem about wearing purple when you’re a little old lady. BRB with it.
It is titled:
Warning
When I am an old woman I shall wear purple
With a red hat which doesn’t go, and doesn’t suit me.
And I shall spend my pension on brandy and summer gloves
And satin sandals, and say we’ve no money for butter.
I shall sit down on the pavement when I’m tired
And gobble up samples in shops and press alarm bells
And run my stick along the public railings
And make up for the sobriety of my youth.
I shall go out in my slippers in the rain
And pick flowers in other people’s gardens
And learn to spit.
You can wear terrible shirts and grow more fat
And eat three pounds of sausages at a go
Or only bread and pickle for a week
And hoard pens and pencils and beermats and things in boxes.
But now we must have clothes that keep us dry
And pay our rent and not swear in the street
And set a good example for the children.
We must have friends to dinner and read the papers.
But maybe I ought to practise a little now?
So people who know me are not too shocked and surprised
When suddenly I am old, and start to wear purple.
– Jenny Joseph
sdhays
@Mousebumples: We aren’t hearing much about Florida anymore, so I’m guessing Senator Batboy stabilized his numbers by spending millions of his own ill gotten gains on his campaign.
Redshift
@ArchTeryx:
Very cool!
Mousebumples
@sdhays: yeah, which is unfortunate. But if we can pickup Texas or Nebraska’s Senate seats, that would be a coup!
If Kamala can win Texas? Oh, man, I might faint from excitement.
Hungry Joe
Some Good News AnecData: Every three days, give or take, my doggo Willow and I cover our entire neighborhood on our walks. It includes two precincts, both light blue for the last few elections. In 2020, Biden signs outnumbered Trump signs — the score, as I remember it, was either 20-5 or 21-5. This year (so far) it’s 36-0, and I know that at least 4 of the 5 Trumpers are still there. I interpret this as reticence, a certain hesitation that will manifest itself in a small but significant percentage of 2020 Trump voters either jumping to the Dems (“Just this once!”) or giving the top of the ticket a pass.
Tomorrow, 10/24, I mail my 400 Postcards to Swing States — the first ones I wrote. Will take them to the P.O. in the a.m.
I tell you, if we keep grinding on, we’ve got this. The only sleep I’m losing is caused by the thrilling expectation of pouring out into the street when the election is called for Kamala. Almost our whole block will be out there — I have sworn commitments!
Redshift
@Glory b:
Local news, even good local news, has a tendency to report on “the latest poll.” The 7-10 points is almost certainly the average of polls, which is much more reliable, and there’s no way that average could shift from that to one point in a short time. As others have pointed out, partisan GOP pollsters are dumping slanted polls everywhere these days, and part of the intent is to produce exactly this kind of story and freakout.
TBone
@Mousebumples: ha! Yay!
Redshift
@ArchTeryx:
Hah! Like we jackals have ever followed the rules! 😀
Jackie
This is a follow up to the article I posted yesterday:
I hope this just adds to former TCFG’s CoS John Kelly’s statements re suckers and losers just in time for the weekend!
FelonyGovt
@Omnes Omnibus: Agree 100%. I’ve noticed that overall, I feel fairly confident and only start getting anxious when I read news articles about polls, what early turnout does and doesn’t mean, etc. So for my mental health I am going to try to stay away from such sources for the next 2 weeks.
TBone
@Hungry Joe: 💜
Ohio Mom
@MFA: Turnout is also good at the southwest corner of Ohio. Hamilton county is Blue so I hope that means well for Sherrod Brown and the redistricting proposal.
Betty
@Glory b: The only way to explain that is pure ignorance. Anyone who knows anything about Casey knows he has been a steadfast supporter of Pennsylvanians, especially the elderly and people with disabilities. McCormick is a multimillionaire parachuted in from Connecticut and supported by other rich guys with a record of favoring banning abortion.
Kirk
@ArchTeryx: Oh, piffle to that. All BJ threads become open sooner or later.
Betty
@The Red Pen: Does Nate know any women?
Mousebumples
@Betty: Does Siri count?
WV Blonde
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: I have to think that orange dipshit saw Patton! Rommel was a key offscreen character.
FelonyGovt
@ArchTeryx: I understand it to be a “good news” open thread and if you’re referring to your #26, that certainly qualifies. Good for you!
TBone
@Betty: McCormick will go out the same way “Doctor” Oz did, on his ass without a second thought! Thrown aside with great force, as Dorothy Parker put it.
Bob Casey chose to focus on diapers during his anti-price gouging speech at the Convention. I laughed long and loud! Remember when the cult started wearing diapers in solidarity? “Real men wear diapers” was a thing at the time 😆
RandomMonster
Maryland tells me my mail-in vote was received and counted. Take that, Larry Hogan, you ambulatory canned ham.
RandomMrs and I are scrambling to find stamps for our 400 post cards. Our post offices have run out of post card rate stamps, so looks like we’ll have to dish out some extra money for standard rate…
Jackie
@Another Scott: We can’t. He’s running against TCFG endorsed MAGA Jarrod Sessler. I had to vote for Newhouse – who at least voted to impeach TCFG.
Redshift
@Another Scott: Assholes. Certainly tracks with their overall deal of “government is bad, elect me and I’ll muck it up!”
I’ve never understood why any federal employees are Republicans from Reagan onward. It’s right up there with the Log Cabin Republicans in the “why do you vote for people who openly hate you?” contest.
TBone
@Betty: 😆🥰
Gwangung
Two things:
one, my ballot was accepted.
two, my production of VIETGONE was named Outstanding Production of a Play for 2024 for the Puget Sound by the local theatre association. And you bet I’m bring smug about it.
TBone
@Mousebumples: 😆🤣
Baud
@Gwangung:
Congratulations!
Belafon
@Glory b: Wasn’t PA where the pollster decided that the only people that should count as Dem voters are college educated whites that have voted for Democrats before, which is a really bad metric?
Josie
My youngest son and I voted early this morning in Houston. There was no line but there were tons of people voting. We had plenty of voting machines and lots of workers to help people, so things went very smoothly. Glad to have that off of my list.
Anoniminous
@Gwangung:
Congratulations!!!!!
Baud
@Josie:
Good. Houston is important.
scav
Dropped the votes off in the dropbox yesterday (late afternoon) and then joked that we were really participating in the election as we had to wait in line behind one car (& checked it was voting, not the tax dropbox immediately adjacent). By the time we left the parking lot there was a line of 5 cars (about all that would fit in the lot) & one turning in). Not bad for the very upper left with 100% mail-in. Minor detail: at least one of the cars also went for Vietnamese take-out immediately afterwards.
WaterGirl
@ArchTeryx: You’re fine!
Redshift
@FelonyGovt:
Great call. Josh Marshall explained it well — the poll shifts we’re seeing reported are very small (unusually so, actually), small enough that there’s no way we’ll know in the next two weeks if the shifts are real or just the random noise that is always part of polling. So if you’re getting no useful information and it makes you feel worse, just tune it out. You really won’t be any less informed than the people who obsess over them.
WaterGirl
@Mousebumples:
Wow! It appears that the chief justice might just believe in the rule of law!
dm
@The Red Pen: My memory was that for weeks leading up to the election in 2016 that 538’s model had Clinton winning only 65% of the time, with Trump having a 1/3 chance of victory.
People were pissing on them for giving Trump so large a chance.
But, as you say, Nate Silver works for Peter Thiel now, and that may influence his thinking. Plus, he got quire a drubbing for swallowing the lab-leak story. Naomi Klein, in her book, Doppelgänger speculates that a similar embarrassment was what turned Naomi Wolfe to the Dark Side. I wonder sometimes if that may have happened, to a lesser degree, to Silver.
Ohio Mom
@TBone: I don’t think the poet is very old; when you are old, you realize that sitting in the pavement risks not being able to get back up. Ask me how I’m learning this.
Anoniminous
Republicans and their corporate owners are running scared so they’ve released their go-to tactic:
lie.
I don’t believe a damn thing the Infotainment Mediums are spewing.
Mousebumples
Jackie
Eric Swalwell’s on a roll! Another ad! This one’s called A Place for Trump:
https://youtu.be/wiyGScJ7iWQ?si=p_a8SHbLP72XnvL4
ArchTeryx
@FelonyGovt: It won’t be in time for this election – 3D is *complicated.* But I already have a background in graphic design and 2D motion graphics in After Effects, so it’s mostly a question of transferring skills I know into Blender’s systems, and the extra axis. I have a head start, but I’m still a n00b. In some ways, doing things in Blender is far far easier than doing them in After Effects, or my Procedural Objects modeling in Cities Skylines.
mrmoshpotato
@Mousebumples:
Rejoicing? And going somewhere else for election coverage?
Redshift
Vindman’s campaign (and outside groups) in Virginia’s 7th district have been having some great fun with the weirdness of his MAGA opponent. (Not my district, but it’s in the DC media market, so the ads are all over TV.) This is the guy who posed for pictures for a NYT article with the wife and kids of a friend, to hide the fact that he’s unmarried (because wingnuts are weirdly obsessed with that sort of thing.)
The latest had has someone playing him doing various family activities (meals, board games) with cardboard cutouts of the “wife” and “kids,” while highlighting his horrible policy positions.
Baud
@Mousebumples:
Yeah, that’s wild. Something’s gotta be off somewhere.
Hillary did better than Trump on favorability but both were very negative.
Kirk
@Ohio Mom: Well, no. Jenny Joseph was 28 when she wrote it.
One of my favorite ironies is that she chose purple because she hated, but once she turned 62 she wore that color almost constantly. Because of the poem, and what she’d expressed.
I do not know if she ever sat on the pavement at that point.
Mousebumples
@mrmoshpotato: have you tried removing the election needle from up your ass, I ask the FTFNYT execs.
Anoniminous
@dm:
Anyone who accepted the bullshit SARS-Cov-19 came out of a lab can be ignored for the rest of their life.
Mousebumples
@Baud: Harris hasn’t been on Fox News since the 90s. The benefits of running a female candidate who was basically ignored by cable media for 4 years to try to minimize her skills.
Jackie
https://americanoversight.org/judge-orders-army-to-release-report-from-incident-at-arlington-cemetery-to-american-oversight/
Steve LaBonne
@mrmoshpotato: What I can imagine, because it’s going to happen, is being stoned on one of my wife’s gummies so I sleep through election night.
HumboldtBlue
@Gwangung:
Smug on you smugly beautiful playwright!!!!
Also, Jimmy Kimmel gets under Trump’s skin like few others.
Josie
@Ohio Mom:
So true, lol. Being old reminds me of when I was heavily pregnant. When I sat on the floor, I had to crawl to a strong piece of furniture to pull myself up again. Now I have to be careful of my knees when I crawl. It’s always something.
comrade scotts agenda of rage
@Steve LaBonne:
As someone put it to me this morning:
November 5th is like waiting for the results of a biopsy.
Geminid
@Geminid: Turkiye’s Defense Minister said the three people who attacked the Turkish Aerospace Industries facility in Ankara were PKK fighters.
The attack came the day after Devlet Bahclen, the leader of the conservative, ultra-nationalist MH Party proposed a peace process involving PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan, but the timing may be coincidental because it seems like this attack would have been planned some time in advance.
Ocalan has been held in prison on an island in the Sea of Marmara near Istanbul since he was kidnapped from Nairobi(?) in 1999. In 2013, he and the Turkish government agreed to a ceasefire in their decades-long war but it broke down two years later.
Jackie
Judge Orders Army to Release Report from Incident at Arlington Cemetery to American Oversight – American Oversight
For some reason this link won’t post as a link. Third attempt.
JoyceH
@lowtechcyclist: I’m sure Ruby and Shaye will have the valuables that Giuliani disgorges converted into cash and invest the proceeds sensibly, to give themselves a modest but comfortable nest egg. But I confess that I like to imagine these two tooling around Manhattan in Bacall’s Benz before returning to the high-rise to be elevator wafted to their deeeluxe apartment in the sky-yi-yi.
Steve LaBonne
@comrade scotts agenda of rage: I once had to wait a week for the (thankfully, negative) result of a prostate biopsy. There is a considerable probability that the week following Nov. 5 is going to feel like that.
WaterGirl
@FelonyGovt: Actually I said “news” and asked BJ peeps not to forget about good news, too.
i just get tired of song links and memes in threads sometimes where we’re trying to have a conversation. This is one of those days, so I didn’t add Open Thread.
WaterGirl
@RandomMonster: I have 49 stamps I can send you, but some of those were taking a week to arrive, so I’m not sure that would help you?
WaterGirl
@Gwangung: Wondereing if you saw my reply to you last week where I asked if you would want to do a post about it?
lowtechcyclist
@The Red Pen:
Silver may have given Hillary an 85% chance of winning at some point. But by the morning of Election Day, Silver gave Trump a ~30% chance of winning.
This was no sudden change either. Once Comey got into the game with a week and a half to go, Hillary’s standing in the polls went downhill, day by day, until by the time the polls opened, Silver was only giving her a ~70% chance of winning. She’d looked unbeatable just eleven days earlier – and then along came Comey.
Geminid
@Redshift: Eugene Vindman is very wel-lnetworked nationally and his campaign has raised more than $6 million dollars, so you’ll be hearing a lot more from his campaign.
Vindman ought to be able to beat Derrick Anderson, and if he does he’ll be my new Representative. I’m actually more excited by Suhas Subramanyam, the state Senator who is on track to win the 10th CD. I’m still sad about Jennifer Wexton though.
Redshift
Saw on the local news crawl yesterday that Kamala is considering having her Election Night HQ at Howard. If so, I may have to go down there (not that I could get in, but it should be a great crowd!)
Manyakitty
@Steve LaBonne: Summit County has been busy the whole time, too, at least as of Friday afternoon when I stopped by to vote.
Redshift
@Geminid: Oh, I’ve been seeing his ads for weeks, this one just particularly stuck me. Keeping my fingers crossed for you on both of those. I’m still disappointed my friend Jennifer Boysko didn’t win that primary, but just on a personal level – pretty much all our candidates were great, including Subramanyam.
JoyceH
@Geminid: I’m in that district too. I see the Anderson signs “from combat to Congress” and I don’t understand this crush so many people have for the SEALS. I’m retired Navy, I’ve known SEALS. They excel at killing people. How that translates into Congressional work simply escapes me.
Jackie
Harris is going to really get under TCFG’s thin skin for her finale!😂
MISTERPUFF
@WV Blonde:After the Kasserine Pass battle “Rommel, You magnificent bastard! I read your book!”
Things Trump would never say……
lowtechcyclist
@RandomMonster:
Same here, including the sentiment about Hogan.
I’ll be knocking on doors later this afternoon with a candidate for mayor of my town. Should be an interesting experience.
Baud
@Jackie:
Interesting.
“But we won’t cover any of that.”
TBone
@Ohio Mom: Awwww, dang it!!! Yes, she says she is practicing so her peeps won’t be too shocked when she arrives at officially old.
I am in that same ‘making new noises when trying to stand up’ stage also!
Scout211
I posted a link at #40 to the American Oversight website if that helps.
TBone
@Jackie: thanks for sharing!
Baud
@Mousebumples:
I understand the reasons for the difference, just saying that the favorability numbers now are out of whack with the poling numbers.
Jeffro
Well…let’s just say that the American electorate in general (and especially on the right) tends not to select for governing ability, policy, or character when choosing its elected officials.
Tough talk? Yup.
Outlandish promises? Uh huh.
Personal appearance? Frequently, sure.
Name recognition? Heck yes.
Military background? Often.
Perception of wealth or success or both? Oh yeah
Gloria DryGarden
@MFA: calling your partner your Magnificent Other has made my day.
Thats just so beautiful. Radiant.
TBone
@ArchTeryx: I have no idea what you are talking about at all, but it sounds like fun anyway 😅! I understand 3D and/or printing and then my brain stopped translating.
Jeffro
OT but Virginia peeps, if you requested a mail-in or absentee ballot, double-check that it’s on the way.
Froette (who’s up in Arlington) requested one two weeks ago, received notifications that it was being processed and then that was sent…and then received a notification that it wasn’t going to be sent after all (I am still waiting to hear the details – she was going to call the elections office).
Fishy stuff.
On a positive note, though, she’s going to drive down here to Cville to vote on Election Day and will probably visit for at least the day if not overnight. So that part’s good. =)
TBone
@Anoniminous: me too either!
TBone
@Mousebumples: LOL!
TBone
@Josie: points for the Roseanne Roseanna Danna reference!
TBone
@JoyceH: I like your ideas and would subscribe to your style newsletter!
Mousebumples
@WaterGirl: mine arrived pretty quick, fwiw. Sorry I didn’t follow up, but they got here late last week. Thanks again!
Sister Golden Bear
@Gwangung: Congratulations, well deserved!
Ken
That’s probably why Trump wants Johnny Carson to come back to the Tonight Show.
(For those who don’t get it, Trump has both talked about Carson as if he were still alive, and confused Jimmy Kimmel with Jimmy Fallon, host of the Tonight Show.)
JoyceH
@Jackie: Ooh, the Mall! I love that! It’s an almost infinitely expandable venue. I hope the crowd is eNORmous. Bigger than Trump’s “day of love” at least.
Mousebumples
@Baud: are the GOP pollsters bothering to post fake/tanked Favorability results?
TBone
I’m voting in my Four Seasons Total Landscaping T-shirt that features Gritty on a lawn tractor (proceeds went to Ossoff and Warnock).
Take that rethugs!
TBone
@Ken: favorite Kimmel so far this year:
Baud
@Mousebumples: I don’t know. The only thing I can figure is that they’re way overestimating Republican turnout for Trump. Perhaps that’s wishful thinking, but the numbers don’t jive to this non-expert.
TBone
@Steve LaBonne: oh, now I remember being tested for AIDS. Waiting for a phone call 🤐
My old faithful doesn’t even work in that sitch (worry is a waste of imagination).
Redshift
@Jackie: Awesome, I’ll have to go! The article says “between 7th and 4th St,” so it’ll be with the Capitol as a backdrop. Evoking Jan 6 is part of the point, I’m sure, but it’s also the view of TV cameras and spectators for the inauguration.
TBone
@Redshift: oh what fun! Please check in during!
Chris Johnson
@Mousebumples: Holy shit, Trump’s beating Vance for unfavorability, including just by the spread.
Must be the standing on a stage for half an hour, or talking about Arnold Palmer’s junk, or something. Suuuuper normal and reassuring to would-be conservative voters.
edit: I’d actually forgotten the talking about how they should put back Johnny Carson. That would be a neat trick.
Math Guy
If trump were to order the military to fire on peaceful protesters, I’ve no doubt that there are some soldiers and officers who would do so, but I think a significant number of them (I don’t want to argue proportions here) would refuse those orders and might actively resist. And this may be why Kelly has publicly spoken up about trump being a fascist.
JMG
I voted today. One less thing to worry about.
AFAIK, Nate Silver has not predicted a Trump victory. He’s said it’s a 50-50 race. I guess that’s an ideal forecast for the numbers analyst crowd, since it means they can’t be wrong no matter what happens.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Baud: Maybe high estimates for GOP turnout. Maybe the people who don’t personally like Trump, but are voting for him anyway because of the ‘economy’. Who knows.
lollipopguild
@Math Guy: Most of the people in our armed forces joined to protect americans not machine gun them down in the street.
Chris Johnson
@JMG: It’s an ideal forecast if you’re involved with a betting site and trying to get up to no good based on exploiting people’s wild gambling. I’m guessing Nate Silver is up to something and stands to benefit from his current opinions, whether he means them or is secretly betting like hell against them, which would be the smart play.
Gloria DryGarden
@Scout211: YES
WOO-hoo!
be it so.
colorful confetti, jubilant words and song, thousands of women wearing purple, and men wearing their best most favorite celebratory outfits.
effectiveness and calm, before, through, and after. And ongoing. Amen.
scav
@lollipopguild: One would hope. The tricky part might be who some of those consider fellow Americans. Some assumed Americans wouldn’t let female Americans bleed out in hospital waiting rooms awaiting medical care, but well, we’re apparently not fellow enough. (right fellas?)
Mousebumples
@Baud: some of these R leaning polls are using Likely Voter screens that decimate urban turnout.
Sure, maybe Trump is ahead in PA if Philly doesn’t vote. But I don’t think that’s likely…
ArchTeryx
@TBone: Graphic Design = Make pretty pictures (like logos, political signs, banners, etc) in a computer.
Motion Graphics = Take the pretty pictures and animate them in 2D.
3D design is very similar to these, but instead of just doing it on a flat plane, you get to do it in 3D space. 3D text grabs the eye a LOT more than just static 2D text. So does movement. We live in a moving, 3D world, so creating the same thing on the screen really catches attention.
And I guarantee every modern movie you watch has huge teams of VFX folks beetling away on either 3D programs or After Effects or both to create those stunning FX shots. They are also the only group of movie crews that are contract and not unionized. But that’s a different tale for another day.
The Wild Robot, one of the best animated films ever made, actually shows off two 3D techniques that side by side just are amazing to see.
Trollhattan
In which I learn there is such a thing as a Tech Guild.
Guessing WaPo is having a “Ha-Ha!” moment.
Geminid
@JoyceH: I think Derrick Anderson was Army special forces. The Republican 5th District candidate, state Senator John McGuire is a former Navy SEAL
Ed. Eugene Vindman seems to be a decent retail campaigner. Has he apoeared near you?.
Melancholy Jaques
@lowtechcyclist:
And the thing that Silver kept pointing out in 2016 was that there was an unusually large percentage of undecided voters. We don’t have that this time.
trnc
Hopefully, they can avoid saying that Rudy owned them so as not to devalue them.
S Cerevisiae
All I can say is I’m confident that Harris/Walz is going to win big and we’ll know it when they call North Carolina for team blue. I have felt this way for a couple of months now and nothing is changing this vibe for me. Going to go early vote here either today or tomorrow, have a little faith.
someone needs to update the classic Obama meme – “Everybody chill the fuck out, I got this”
Baud
@Mousebumples:
Could be. I’m not really paying attention to polls, so I don’t want to spend time overthinking them. But they just seem squirrelly to me.
lowtechcyclist
@Redshift:
I’ll have to go too!! For reference, that’s the part of the Mall between the National Gallery of Art on the north side, and Air and Space on the south. I’d be coming in on the Green Line from Branch Ave., so I’d probably be getting off at L’Enfant Plaza and walking from there, it’s not far.
PAM Dirac
@JoyceH:
My brother started SEAL training, but got injured and had to wash out of his group. He had the option of starting again with another group, but didn’t want to delay things so he did EOD (Explosive Ordnance Disposal). He said it worked out fine because most of the sailors didn’t know the difference so when he was deployed everyone treated him really well because they thought he was a SEAL and thus dangerously crazy.
wjca
Have you considered the difference between “is registered as a Republican” (i.e. gets to vote in Republican primaries) and “votes for Republicans in the general election”? Someone who wants to drag the Republican Party back to something resembling sanity, whether in general or just on a specific issue, might might well do the former without doing the latter. Consider this the voice of experience.
TBone
@ArchTeryx: thank you, now I get it and it sounds really amazing. You go!
ETA I can’t wait to see The Wild Robot.
Omnes Omnibus
@Geminid: All the snake eaters are more than a little bit weird. SF, SEALs, Force Recon, Ranger Regiment, Delta…. All of them. Hell, even the airborne division guys are a little off kilter. Alright, every combat arms soldier isn’t completely normal. But the snake eaters are more so. Much more so.
TBone
@Trollhattan: hahahahahahahaha!
Kirk
@Omnes Omnibus: We’re not that bad. mostly.
BeautifulPlumage
@Gwangung: WOW! Congratulations!!!!!!!
Definitely good news
Belafon
@TBone: I really enjoyed the movie.
Trollhattan
@trnc:
Any car once occupied by Rudy I’d go over carefully with a UV light.
trnc
@wjca: But those voters don’t get to choose their preferred democratic candidate, so I would think that would be a relatively small percentage.
H.E.Wolf
Check to see if your local post offices have “extra ounce” stamps. The image is a yellow school bus.
The “extra ounce” stamps are 28-cent value.
28 x 2 “extra ounce” stamps = 56 cents = 1 postcard stamp.
In other words buy and affix 2 of the “extra ounce” school-bus stamps for every postcard.
(When there’s no deadline, I order from USPS.com.)
Omnes Omnibus
@Kirk: Which category are you?
Argiope
I’m gonna echo Omnes on the do something point. I have 7 volunteer shifts planned already between now and election day: voter protection (staffing the Ohio Dem hotline right now), canvassing (every weekend) and poll monitoring officially on the big day. I’m staying busy so I don’t have time to fret.
H.E.Wolf
@RandomMonster:
Re: stamps…
Ask all the people you know nearby, if they have postcard stamps.
This is especially likely to be fruitful if you know folks over 55, who all seem to have stamps in a junk drawer somewhere in the house. :)
UncleEbeneezer
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: Sorry, but didn’t you get the memo? We aren’t supposed to read anything from The Atlantic because they keep committing the fought-crime of unfairly injecting Hamas into discussions about the war that Hamas started. Just admitting you read The Atlantic only proves you love Genocide.
UncleEbeneezer
Voted the other day and just dropped Nevada postcards to voters in the mail :)
Velocifowl
My hope is that Democrats learn something from this election season. Harris, Bautista, Swalwell, Waltz, Crocket, and more have proven that when they go low curb stomping their heads into pasta sauce works wonders. Republicans like all bullies don’t know how to deal with people who are jonesing for a fight.
cursorial
@RandomMonster: I had that happen at the post office too! (In my case, just 40 postcards, so I’ll take the hit and just use regular stamps, but I was suprised. Outside of postcards to voters, maybe postcard rate stamps aren’t much in demand anymore).
H.E.Wolf
PostcardsToVoters.org has addresses for half-a-dozen candidates, including Balloon Juice’s very own fundraiser recipient, Matt Cartwright in PA.
Just be sure you have stamps.
Omnes Omnibus
@Argiope: Echoing me? You might want to examine the life choices that brought you to this point.
wjca
Unless it’s a blowout. (And the margin to be considered a blowout is a lot lower than it used to be.) Then, if you said 50-50 you look like a fool.
UncleEbeneezer
@Argiope: I thought about taking Election Night off, but decided I’d rather work and be on court (tennis instructor) where I can’t really look at my phone.
Emily B.
@Argiope: Same here. Kind of dreading the day when we hit the final deadline for sending postcards. I may have to break down and phonebank.
Sister Golden Bear
@PAM Dirac:
That and the fact that an ordinance disposal tech running at full speed outranks everyone else on the field.
Mousebumples
@RandomMonster: can you call area post offices to see if they have any to spare? Not that you want to drive hours out of your way, but….
Also, check out the
additional postageadditional OUNCE STAMPS (school bus, $0.28/stamp). I think 2x those is the postcard rate and might be more available.Weftage
@trnc:
Disagree. They’ll put a big sign on them: “Yes, these are those very vehicles once owned by the seditious lackwit R. Giuliani! Get your own piece of history RIGHT HERE!!” The line of bidders will run out the door and around the building.
Unless, of course, our stalwart heroines decide to just drive the damned things themselves. Slowly, back and forth, in front of the gates of Mar-a-Lago.
Mousebumples
Duplicate
frosty
Deleted. Late to the thread again.
WaterGirl
@frosty: whatever you wrote, I would have seen it. :-)
PAM Dirac
@Sister Golden Bear:
Excellent point 😃
Argiope
@Omnes Omnibus: Oh work brought me enough of THAT today. But elections, I feel like you’ve got a handle on.
frosty
@lowtechcyclist: Hmmm. I could do this, too, except I signed up to canvass and flush voters on election day. It would be a long drive and then Metro from probably New Carrollton or Landover.
Geminid
@Omnes Omnibus: On the other hand, Derrick Anderson’s opponent Eugene Vindman seems very normal. He also is a former Army officer and was in ROTC at SUNY-Binghampton, alongside his twin brother Alexander. Eugene Vindman served as an Infantry officer and then I guess the Army sent him to law school so he could be a JAG officer.
I check out Vindman’s social media posts and he seems to be a diligent retail campaigner. I like how they never show him talking; he’s always listening intently to a wide variety of people or giving one a firm handshake. I expect Vindman has a top-notch staff since this campaign is a big priority for VoteVets.
frosty
@WaterGirl: Thanks, it was about finding postcard stamps for RandomMonster. Basically, if he’s close to the MD-PA border, check out Shrewsbury and New Freedom. They had plenty a couple of weeks ago. Not too many Democrats writing postcards around here.
I’ll see if he’s in the next thread.
WaterGirl
WaterGirl
@WaterGirl: Note to self: Do not piss off Liz Cheney.
Argiope
@WaterGirl: She does not play.
Omnes Omnibus
@Geminid: Vindman was a line infantry officer before he became a FAO. Ordinary combat arms guys are only a little crazy. Infantry more than the others in the opinion of this former artillery officer. You have to be a little nuts to be combat arms. Ask Villago about it. He was Signal Corps. He saw it up close.
Princess
@The Red Pen: Right-wing hopium. Here’s what Silver himself said two hours ago:
”Last update: 3 p.m., Wednesday, October 23. Our model hasn’t moved much over the past several days after Trump’s gains last week. In fact, it was kind of a sky-is-not-falling polling day for Harris, with high-quality surveys showing good numbers for her in North Carolina and Michigan and a rebound in a national tracking poll that had shown her behind. It remains hard to know what to expect, other than the fact that this is a really close race.”
The Red Pen
Good question. Silver did his first election as “poblano” on Daily Kos. After that, he became a hot commodity. But 538 was bought by the NYT and is now owned by ABC and I think there were some in between. He’s got a business to keep going and so he’s got the same “horse race coverage” incentives as the big media that owns him. I think he knows he’s a has-been so he’s trying to cash in on whatever fame he has left.
His current prediction are a combination of polls and then some proprietary blend of herbs and bias that produces an “adjusted forecast.”
The Red Pen
I think my trauma response buried that detail. dm pointed it out, too.
I suspect she would have won without that, but who knows?
Ruckus
Wow. That Swalwell video is pretty good political opposition stuff.
cw moss
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ: Rommel was a magnificent bastard and I read his book
E.
@WaterGirl: That is some Old Testament shit.
Ruckus
@E.:
What era do you think Maga idiots want to return to?
It is the days of kings or queens and I’d bet most want the kings. That would be so that their chosen opposition could be much easier hung for not praising the royalty and could be strung up for actually wanting a rational democracy. Because they also know that their concepts of government and freedom is NOT what we see today. They want freedom for them and screw everyone else. They don’t seem to understand that this isn’t the 18th century – or earlier. They don’t understand a democracy, don’t like a democracy, or modern concepts of living, freedom and responsibility, modern education, etc. They read the bible, if they can read and they seem to think that should be the world of today. The rich would still be rich, they could knock off most anyone they don’t like, and life wouldn’t cost as much, nor would it be worth as much. And look how life would work, they’d be the bosses and likely at least own some land. And that simplicity would make them more towards the top of the food chain. Of course they would die at younger ages, like life used to be, therefore getting to their promised land sooner.
I didn’t say there would be any logic, rational thought, or any thing remotely looking like it.