Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

Fight them, without becoming them!

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

It’s always darkest before the other shoe drops.

They are not red states to be hated; they are voter suppression states to be fixed.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

People identifying as christian while ignoring christ and his teachings is a strange thing indeed.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

This really is a full service blog.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

You are here: Home / Elections 2024 / Wednesday Morning Open Thread: It’s the Waiting That’s Wearing Us Down

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: It’s the Waiting That’s Wearing Us Down

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This is a great — possibly our best — clip on why to vote for Kamala Harris:

Q: What concessions would you be willing to make on abortion?

Vice President Harris: More than 20 states now have Trump Abortion Bans, some with no exception for rape or incest. A basic freedom has been taken from the women of America. We need to put back in the protections of Roe v. Wade, and that cannot be negotiable.

And here’s the second-greatest clip of the morning!


High accolades from a master of invective…

Preach!

Another big Michigander endorsement:

In what surely comes as a heartbreaking disappointment to Donald Trump, Insane Clown Posse’s Violent J has endorsed Kamala Harris for president.

Speaking with comedian Troy Iwata for a recent segment on The Daily Show, Violent J confirmed that Harris is his preferred pick for the White House, saying “I want her to win because she’s a Democrat, and I love my mom.”

Elsewhere in the interview, he learned how to pronounce Harris’ first name — calling it “fresh” — and weighed in on a number of hot-topic issues, like mass deportation, which he said “fuck no” to. “Now I remember why I hated Trump, that wall shit,” he said…

Speaking about why he prefers Democrats to Republicans, Violent J explained, “My mom said the Democrats are saying less taxes on the poor, more taxes on the rich.” When asked about the taxes he pays, he enthusiastically claimed that he pays “up the fucking anus, and I’m happy about it. I pay double what they ask.”…

Reader Interactions

180Comments

  2. 2.

    ArchTeryx

    @Baud: The Juggalos have always been as anti-fascist as you can get. TCFG tried to use an Insane Clown Posse song in one of his campaign stops and both them and the Juggalos went absolutely apeshit.

    They’ve also held charity events for kids with cancer among other things.

    The Insane Clown Posse and the Juggalos are weird in all the best ways.

  4. 4.

    mali muso

    Back in the US after a week spent in Italy!  Besides the amazing hill towns, 2000 year old buildings and incredible food, one of the things I enjoyed the most was being removed from hearing and thinking about the political situation here.  It’s so oppressive to the spirit to have this sword hanging over all our collective heads.  I’ve voted, post-carded and will try to join a phonebank between now and Election Day.  Just got to keep moving forward with determination and try not to spiral thinking about all the what-ifs.

  7. 7.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @mali muso:

     Just got to keep moving forward with determination and try not to spiral thinking about all the what-ifs.

    Excellent advice. Got leave it all on the field.

  10. 10.

    ArchTeryx

    @Baud: IIRC, they also were holding GOTV events in 2020. I admit I’m not a Juggalo and don’t keep tabs on all they do, but I know this much: They’re very actively into politics and they’re not just allies of convenience, they’re 100% on our side. And they do not take shit from MAGAt fascists.

    Swifties and Juggalos make for some of the oddest bedfellows in American history, but we need EVERYONE in the trenches we can get.

  13. 13.

    Belafon

    About Dave Bautista’s challenge of Trump’s manliness:

    …it would seem that Trump HAS seen it, and that’s what’s behind his recent move to turn up the locker room talk to 10. Most obviously, the Donald earned quite a bit of coverage this week with his comments about the size of (deceased) golfer Arnold Palmer’s… putter, if you will. He’s also said a bunch of other locker-roomy things in the past few days.

    https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Items/Oct22-2.html

  14. 14.

    ArchTeryx

    @Belafon: You know, when it comes to completely surreal events in this campaign, TCFG responding to the Dave Bautista challenge to his manhood by talking about… Arnold Palmer’s package?… has to be one of the most surreal things I’ve ever heard of from a campaign. And I was there for Reagan 2.

  15. 15.

    Baud

    @ArchTeryx:

    Swifties and Juggalos make for some of the oddest bedfellows in American history

     
    Their children will create a new race of superheroes.

  19. 19.

    Soprano2

    I heard yet another story on “Morning Edition” today where it was asserted that Democrats take Latinos for granted, that they don’t address their issues, and it occurred to me that rarely is the follow-up question asked “Can you name a specific issue that you feel needs to be addressed that Democrats aren’t addressing?” It’s almost always assumed, whenever anyone in a group asserts that Democrats are ignoring their issues, that this is true. If you had asked me the question about women’s issues back in the 1990’s, I could have told you “Yes, we’re always being told not to talk about anything that’s deemed a “women’s issue”, like abortion, reproductive rights in general, or child care, because they think it alienates male voters”. I don’t doubt that there might be issues that affect a particular community that Democrats aren’t addressing, but why is it always assumed that this is just true? Perhaps the person making that assertion doesn’t know that the issue has been talked about and worked on. It’s just something that occurred to me this morning.

    ETA – I love that whole clip of the interviewer trying to get Harris to make concessions before any kind of bill is proposed, and how she absolutely refuses to engage with it.

  22. 22.

    Butch

    Almost all of Hallie Jackson’s questions were framed around Republican talking points.  What a hack.

  23. 23.

    Soprano2

    @Butch: It really is pretty stunning that the press cannot seem to absorb the reality that Republicans are not the “normal voter” anymore.

  25. 25.

    BlueGuitarist

    Too slow for the edit window. Wanted to add re Waiting is the hardest part:
    Turn anxiety into action.

    for folks who can afford to give more $ there are thermometers right here

  27. 27.

    Belafon

    @Soprano2: Democrats are a very diverse group, with lots of different priorities, and because of that, and the fact that we struggle to get people to vote, means that our support isn’t even or even consistent at times. But we’re not trying to get anyone killed.

    Some of the people complaining about Democrats are going to be way too distracted by protecting their own lives during a Trump administration to notice what will be happening in Israel, Ukraine, and other places.

  30. 30.

    MinuteMan

    Felonius Punk dressing up as a fast-food worker reminds me of Marie Antoinette’s cosplay as a shepherd girl: completely clueless and it may end as badly.

  31. 31.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Soprano2:

    Yes!
    It’s like the claim that people support Republicans because of policies but can’t name any policies they support.

  34. 34.

    TBone

    @Belafon: 😆 people who’ve got it do not brag about it.  He’s admitting that he’s ashamed of his tiny member.  In his loudest, most heinous brags, he shows his most obvious weaknesses.

    More, please!

  35. 35.

    NotMax

    Woo-effin-hoo! Tuesday mailed out the final payment of the auto loan. Have been managing to finagle the budget to accelerate payments monthly resulting in it being paid off a whole year and a half early (scored a 0.5% rate so interest each month was basically bupkis).

  39. 39.

    catclub

    Good headline at CNN:

    Trump’s former chief of staff says he fits ‘fascist’ definition and prefers ‘dictator approach’

  41. 41.

    Steve

    Balloon Juice, I love you, but can we please end the Twitter links? Every one is money in Musk’s pocket. Plus Bluesky is booming!

  42. 42.

    Ken

    In my ongoing series, Why I Could Never Be A Politician, my response to the “consider pardoning Trump” question would be,

    “No, but as a compromise between a pardon and immediate summary execution — a position that ‘many hold’, as you news people say — I’ll ensure that Donald Trump will have exactly the same rights and treatment under the criminal justice system as any other American citizen.”

  43. 43.

    Starfish

    @ArchTeryx: “Republican talking points framed as questions” are just for Ds. These are not “tough” questions. They are uninteresting questions that frame lies as the truth.

    “Your opponent says the moon is made of green cheese. How do you respond?”

    Clearly, reporters have no obligation to consider whether the question is based in anything real.

  44. 44.

    E.

    @MinuteMan: That’s a good one!  . . . but then, Antoinette just wanted to be happy and play, and it was very gross, but not done in public. Trump doesn’t want to be happy and play, he wants to cause people to hurt. He played fry-cook for very mercenary reasons. There is a meanness to the man, an extraordinary meanness. “All the drops of his blood have eyes that look downwards.” He isn’t playing.

  45. 45.

    TBone

    “Son of a bitch, I am going to touch it anyway!”

    (Sorely tempted but not going to touch that.  Straining to not touch it. Gritting teeth and straining. Whew, I made it! 😆 The urge has passed.)

  46. 46.

    Suzanne

    Is anyone else having a hard time keeping calm about this? I’m just really, really uncertain.

    Hearing that North Korea has troops in Russia is not helping.

  47. 47.

    Belafon

    @Steve: How is every tweet money in his pocket? I don’t mind the idea of getting away from Twitter, but there are still too many legit sources over there that haven’t moved.

  51. 51.

    TBone

    Tonight at 9pm, the Town Hall will be at the Sun Center in Aston, DelCo, PA.  Yes, it is pronounced “ass-ton.’

    CNN told Action News attendees “were chosen from a pool of people identified by a nonpartisan research organization and CNN editorial producers working with local and state business groups, civic organizations, religious groups and universities.”

    https://patch.com/pennsylvania/media/vp-kamala-harris-coming-aston-town-hall-event-reports

    Please please please, DelCo, try not to embarrass us too much on the national stage!

  52. 52.

    Mousebumples

    @Suzanne: 👋 that’s 100% me. I haven’t been sleeping well. I’m sure the stress is at least a partial cause of my recent headaches.

    I’m confident – I think Kamala has this. But I thought the same thing in 2016, so I can’t fully fight the anxiety.

    In GOTV news, I mailed 303 Postcards to Swing States for WI yesterday. (had 3 extra that I sent to friends and family that I think might need a nudge to vote) Also mailed 10 Postcards to Voters for Sherrod Brown’s campaign.

    I’m on a postcarding break since we’re going to Minneapolis on Friday, so I need to get all of our stuff together and packed. But it’s a long drive, so hopefully I can get some done on the trip!

  53. 53.

    Scout211

    @Butch: Almost all of Hallie Jackson’s questions were framed around Republican talking points.  What a hack.

    Yes, this is frustrating and infuriating, but because these talking points are repeated over and over in the media and throughout the Trump campaign lies and smears, the normies who watch mainstream media can learn directly from Kamala what her responses are to the Republican framing.  It does serve a purpose to give her air time to refute the framing and introduce her version.

    It’s frustrating, but at this late stage, could possibly help the undecided (if there is any voters still out there who are undecided).

  54. 54.

    Salty Sam

    @ArchTeryx: The Insane Clown Posse and the Juggalos are weird in all the best ways.

    My eldest son was a Juggalo in his formative years.  When he was 15 years old he wanted BADLY to see ICP live when they played here.  I dropped him off at the venue, but got a little spooked- it was a sketchy kind of place, and the other people going in gave me pause.  I pulled around the corner, parked the car, bought a ticket, and went in just to keep an eye on things.  Music wasn’t to my taste, but the crowd wasn’t any different from any music venue I’d ever been to- raucous good time!  I even got sprayed with Faygo.  I slipped out before the show was over, the boy never knew I was there until I told him years later.

    I’m not saying I’m the ONLY 70 year old who was a Juggalo-for-a-night, but I’m the only one I know.  I’m happy to see their endorsement!

  59. 59.

    Soprano2

    @BlueGuitarist: I’ve come to believe that one reason we can’t address problems head on is because there is so much lying and dissembling about them. I think interviewers are reluctant to try to drill down on what’s not being addressed by Democrats because they’re afraid the actual issue is something offensive, like racism or anti-gay bigotry or misogyny, so they just assume that what the person is saying is true without trying to find out more. I am honestly curious about what issues Latino men could have that Democrats have not addressed. I suspect it’s “I don’t like that gay stuff” or “too many women are in charge of too much stuff in the Democratic Party” rather than any specific issue, but reporters certainly don’t want to address “issues” like that.

  60. 60.

    Suzanne

    @Mousebumples: I am absolutely not confident. I have no idea if that’s fear talking. I am confident that I am too freaked out to judge information dispassionately right now.

  63. 63.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Soprano2:

    Especially given that we’re addressing the issue of whether Latinos should be rounded up by the millions, herded into camps, and then deported en masse.  The Democratic Party, from top to bottom, is an emphatic NO!! on this. While this is the heart of the Republican agenda for 2025.

    I’d think any other issues of particular concern to Latinos would pale by comparison, but maybe that’s just me.

  64. 64.

    Soprano2

    @catclub: So, here’s a tough question reporters could ask Republicans – why are so many of the people who worked for TCFG in his first administration coming out against him? If it were only a few people you could dismiss it as sour grapes, but it’s many more than that. Or here’s another tough question – why doesn’t TCFG just say what he means? Why are other Republicans constantly having to “interpret” what he has said to tell us what he “really means”? They never seem to ask this follow-up question.

  67. 67.

    Suzanne

    The other thing that has been freaking me out a bit is this sense that all the stuff that we see is more proof of TFG’s manifest horribleness…. like the anecdote about Vanessa Guillen’s funeral, and John Kelly calling him a fascist, etc etc etc….. I think all of this helps Trump. His people just hate us so much that they automatically looooooove anything that scandalizes us. They are terrible and more evidence of him being terrible helps get them dug in even more.

  69. 69.

    Yarrow

    @Suzanne: If you missed this Substack article in AL’s late night post last night, have a look. It might help calm nerves.

    My texts are full these days of “are we gonna be okay?” and, then, a beat later, “are you really sure?” Over and over, my answers are basically “yes” and “as sure as I can be.”

  71. 71.

    Mousebumples

    @Suzanne: fair. Might be hopium, but I think Kamala has an edge in ground game, and pollsters have been shit at picking up the post Dobbs incandescent rage at MAGA.

    We have unions on our side. They have mElon and other PACs running grift heavy “GOTV”.

    Joe Biden is our President. He’s going to call out the government for any electoral or post electoral malfeasance.

    When you ignore the Trafalgar pollster crap, Harris has a steady lead in enough swing states to win the electoral college.

    I also have heard (*anecdata) from Shy Harris voters. They say they’re voting for Trump (or Stein, in one case) but they’re voting for Kamala but can’t tell their husband/friends/church, etc. They could be lying to me, too, but I believe them.

    I’m trying to prioritize my self care. Easier said than done. But trying.

  73. 73.

    Suzanne

    @Soprano2:

    I think interviewers are reluctant to try to drill down on what’s not being addressed by Democrats because they’re afraid the actual issue is something offensive, like racism or anti-gay bigotry or misogyny, so they just assume that what the person is saying is true without trying to find out more. I am honestly curious about what issues Latino men could have that Democrats have not addressed. I suspect it’s “I don’t like that gay stuff” or “too many women are in charge of too much stuff in the Democratic Party” rather than any specific issue, but reporters certainly don’t want to address “issues” like that. 

    Uh yes. The answer is that a lot of people who we want in our coalition are, let’s say, not really in alignment with one another.

    Like a lot of the union guys who support Trump. Why? Because they’re misogynist as fuck. Sone of these racial and ethnic minority groups are actually really socially conservative and some of them have a lot of racial prejudice against one another.

  74. 74.

    catclub

    @Steve: Links increase Twitter’s audience, which increases its ad revenue.

     

    No doubt. Except Musk has absolutely cratered the ad support from normal companies.  They probably have MyPillow ads, though. So it ain’t much ad income.

  75. 75.

    Salty Sam

    @Suzanne: I am absolutely not confident. I have no idea if that’s fear talking. I am confident that I am too freaked out to judge information dispassionately right now.

    I’m pretty chill at this point. I won’t be surprised if it’s closer than what’s comfortable, but I also won’t be surprised if it’s a total blowout. The polls (and MSM covering them) are garbage, I believe they are completely missing (ignoring) huge swaths of voters who are going for Harris.

    13 days!

  77. 77.

    Eolirin

    @Suzanne: This election is going to hinge on turnout not persuasion. And there are more of us in the places we need to win (at least for the Presidency). So as long as we turn out our people I have confidence we will pull through. And the Harris campaign has a much better GOTV operation than the Trump campaign.

    What keeps me up at night is the Senate.

  79. 79.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Suzanne: Things like that energize the people who were already going to vote for Trump.  That doesn’t matter.  It turns off other people.  That matters.

  80. 80.

    BlueGuitarist

    @Suzanne:

    When polls report a margin of error, they’re only reporting margin of sampling error, not other sources of error, e.g. modeling of likely voters.
    So uncertainty is reasonable.
    but elections, especially downballot, are within

    the margin of effort.

    A couple of the downballot Pennsylvania candidatesin the thermometer here are in Allegheny county:
    Public school librarian & basketball coach Nicole Ruscitto for PA senate 37
    Moms Demand Action for gun sense activist Hadley Haas for PA House 44

  81. 81.

    catclub

    @Mousebumples: They have mElon and other PACs running grift heavy “GOTV”.

     

    I think somebody will investigate this after the election. I hope it turns out extremely amusing.

    There was a bit about faking location data to claim you went to more locations than you actually did. It was a tutorial by the employees at the GOTV company hired by Musk.

  83. 83.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Soprano2:

    Those are pretty striking numbers, that Harris has ten more points than Alsobrooks.

    Not really, when you consider that Larry Hogan was a very popular governor here, despite being a Republican in a very Democratic state. What’s impressive is that Alsobrooks has apparently opened up a substantial lead.

    When she won the nomination, Alsobrooks still had a long way to go in gaining name recognition and overcoming Hogan’s long-time popularity.  But she’s done that, in spades – thank goodness! At one time, I was afraid this might be the Senate race that cost the Dems our majority. Now, not so much.

  84. 84.

    Suzanne

    @Omnes Omnibus: I’m not sure how it nets out. Trump’s thing was the low-propensity voters. I have no doubt that his fucken freak show behavior gets some people excited who otherwise wouldn’t have voted. Yes, it turns off some people. But I think those people were already turned off. The question, as always, is if there are more people who are turned off than turned on.

    We are talking about an incredibly small slice of the electorate at this point. Like, who, by now, doesn’t genuinely have an opinion?!

  86. 86.

    Geminid

    @Soprano2: Larry Hogan was a popular Governor, much more popular in Maryland than Trump ever was, so that 10 point swing from Harris to Hogan is not surprising.

    Alsobrooks is a highly-qualified candidate, but she had to overcome Hogan’s popularity and her own lack of statewide name recognition. It looks like she succeeded.

  87. 87.

    TBone

    @Salty Sam: although my dad introduced 8 y.o. me to his eight track tape collection brought home from ‘Nam in suitcases, I suspect ICP would have been a bridge too far!  My brother made sure his 13 y.o. son’s first concert was the Rolling Stones recently though, that lucky bugger!

  88. 88.

    Baud

    @Geminid:

    Looks that way. Also, maybe Maryland Dems aren’t stupid and they know what’s at stake. Maybe Hogan would have won if Dems had 60 Senate seats but we don’t. All speculation, of course. The only thing that matters is the final count in this reality.

  89. 89.

    Xantar

    @Suzanne: I don’t have insight into the Hispanic community, but I live in Baltimore and have had lots of discussions with Black people. I think I do understand the disenchantment that Black men are feeling. Obama became President, and yet they don’t feel that their day-to-day lives have improved very much. Pot legalization is patchy (and it’s still illegal at the federal level). Police reform is patchy, if it’s even happening at all, and even if the police are doing better, it’s very hard for a person on the ground to see it. College is too damn expensive. And predatory investors are snapping up houses around them and driving up rent.

    Some of this is not the fault of Obama or the Democrats. Some of this is stuff that would take decades to address. But that’s a hard sell to someone who has been swimming against the tide their whole life. Why would they get their hopes up again for the next candidate only to get disappointed? If Trump is being racist, well at least he’s open about it unlike the well-educated liberals who hide their racism behind micro-aggressions and condescension.

    It’s easy for me to say that these people are wrong, but I’m not them. I do think their feelings are valid, and in the long run it’s going to be a very hard nut to crack for the Democrats.

  90. 90.

    No One of Consequence

    @lowtechcyclist: Where you at Terry? Lynn Swan? I don’t actually care about their endorsement, but I loved to see this. Mid 70’s Steelers were my team. Cuz I was born in 70 like Cole, and couldn’t stand the Cowboys…

  91. 91.

    JML

    @Yarrow: It’s true. They do like that he’s horrible, because they’re assuming that he’s going to be horrible to someone else. The cruelty is the point, and they’ve convinced themselves, in this era of resentment and grievance, that a) others are to blame for their lot in life, b) TFG will punish those people for it, and 3) they will not be punished by the horrible man.

  92. 92.

    kindness

    I’m upbeat about Democrats chances honestly.  Look at the campaigns right now.  Trump is only directing his stuff at those who already are voting for him.  Trump isn’t capturing any new voters.  Kamala is.  One thing that this election reminds me of 2022 & 2020 are all the ‘Democrats’ who are pissing in their pants and shouting about how they just peed their pants.  We have some odd allies.

  93. 93.

    Bupalos

    @Butch: Again and again and again…

    having a well disposed reporter air Republican talking points FOR YOU TO SHOOT DOWN should not be thought of as something that is aggressive or unfair or findlandized or anything like that. It’s an opportunity.  As Harris displays here: “what concessions are you willing to make to the least popular Republicans  (on an issue where near supermajorities of voters support you?)”    “My offer is nothing. They can get fucked”

    That is a winning exchange. An outsized example, but it holds throughout.

  95. 95.

    Suzanne

    @Baud: Of course there isn’t. That’s why it’s fucken scary.

    I have no doubt that there are quiet Harris voters, that polling is inherently imperfect, etc etc etc. But these margins are slim slim slim.

  96. 96.

    PAM Dirac

    @sixthdoctor:

    MD Senate poll: Alsobrooks leads Hogan 54-40. Same poll has Harris 64-34 over Trump.

    A couple of months ago when a number of people were fretting about this race, I thought it would end up Alsobrooks by about 53-47. It looks now like it will be more like 57-43. Note that the typical state wide race is usually about 65D – 35R. I always thought Hogan was going to do better than that, but not enough better to win.

  101. 101.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Suzanne: Is there something more that you can do?  If so, do it.  If not, it is out of your control.  Fretting about it won’t change anything either way.

  102. 102.

    Geminid

    @lowtechcyclist: Angel Alsobrooks will make for a younger Senate. At age 52, she’s 28 years younger than predecessor Ben Cardin.

    We’ll see this trend in other Democratic Senators as well. Elissa Slotkin is around 16 years younger than Debbie Stabenow, while Lisa Blunt Rochester is 15 years younger than Delaware Senator Tom Carper. And 39 year-old Ruben Gallego is 10 years younger than What’s-her-name.

  103. 103.

    Cheryl from Maryland

    @Baud: I canvassed for Alsobrooks.  Few answered the door; but those who did were unanimously wanting a D controlled Senate and knew Hogans advice of his independence was nonsense

  104. 104.

    frosty

    @Suzanne: I am confident that I am too freaked out to judge information dispassionately right now.

    That’s a good description of how I’m feeling. For every comment that PA looks good, that it’s in Kamala’s W column I want to start posting anecdata about what I saw in my County in 2010 and 2016 and why I’m nervous. But I don’t want to be a doomer. Except maybe I just did.

  105. 105.

    PAM Dirac

    @Baud:

    maybe Maryland Dems aren’t stupid and they know what’s at stake

    In the past, I’ve pointed out a number of reasons why Hogan’s popularity and election successes were not nearly as strong as some people claim, but the number one reason why I never thought he would win is that although Rs have won the governor’s race 3 times in the last 20 years, the last time a R won a senate race was over 40 years ago and the R was considered too liberal for even the pre-Reagan R party. Maryland voters have always recognized the difference between a governor constrained by a veto proof D majority in the legislature and sending someone to the Senate.

  106. 106.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    What feeds my anxiety isn’t the odds, but the stakes – the consequences of Harris losing are going to be catastrophic for many people I know, and for the entire world. And I don’t think I’ll be breathing easily until I hear the words “I, Kamala Devi Harris, do solemnly swear…”

  107. 107.

    catclub

    @Xantar: And predatory investors are snapping up houses around them and driving up rent.

     

    I think this is made up worry. Those investors are buying from willing sellers. There was some reason that mom and pop did not keep the house/apartment building.

  109. 109.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    The abortion question to Harris is classic media bullshit.

    Remember, they basically took the same tack with Nancy Smash back in 05 when Dubya announced he was gonna fuck with Social Security.  Our Media Betters then approached her the same way “What when will you release a rival plan?”  Her answer then was great:

    “Never.  Is never good enough for you?”

    Given Harris’s role in Biden’s administration vis a vis abortion rights, her unequivocal answer is no surprise but nonetheless, always good to see.

  110. 110.

    Bruce K in ATH-GR

    Oh, and when I decided to check the CNN web site to see if they had anything on the liquidation of Giuliani’s assets, the first headline I saw was “Jittery Harris campaign…”

    The headline writers are editorializing, and trying to make it look like a foregone conclusion that the Harris campaign is losing and afraid of the consequences of losing.

    That’s the last time for a while that I check CNN.

  111. 111.

    Soprano2

    @Suzanne: At this point I don’t think that matters, no matter what happens they’ll vote for him. I think stuff like this still horrifies most voters who aren’t MAGA’s, however, so that hurts him.

  113. 113.

    Gwangung

    @catclub: No it isn’t a made up worry. Yes, mom and pop are selling, but it’s not to others in the community; at best, it’s upper middle class white lrople who’ll change the character of the community, who’ll call in to complain about community music, complain about “loud” gatherings that have occurred for generations and not patronize old established mom and pop shops.

  114. 114.

    Bupalos

    @Belafon: I don’t know if this is supposed to be a description of what is happening or what you expect to happen BUT

    there are no remotely credible reports of North Koreans in Ukrainian territory and it’s very unlikely they’ll ever be deployed there. Certainly no reports of any who have defected. The likeliest use of North Korean troops (that do appear to be in Russia now in the low thousands) is for training before deployment in the Russian far east to free up regular Russian troops to be fed into the meat grinder. It’s an attempt to put off another mobilization round in Russia, and possibly a sign that Putin is worried about whether he can pull of any further mobilization without destabilizing his own regime.

    This move has some thorny sides for both Russia and North Korea.

  115. 115.

    Soprano2

    @Yarrow: They’d know this if they spent much time around any TCFG voters. I’ve heard “he’s kind of naughty” or “he doesn’t really mean that, he just says it to shock people like you” or “that’s fake news”, but they say it with a smirk or a wink. You know they’re loving that it horrifies the people they hate. They want permission to be openly horrible, and TCFG gives them that.

  116. 116.

    laura

    @zhena gogolia: I, too, felt that video deep in my being. In our family, having a cat on you was a legit, no questions asked, excuse to get out of any/all obligations, tasks, required actions- and Dad laid down that law and it remains firmly in place in all our seperate households. Why would anyone think to disaccomodate a cat? Madness, I tells ya.

  117. 117.

    Soprano2

    @Suzanne: Yes, that’s what I mean when I say the press isn’t being honest about this stuff. It’s why we get so many stories where they’re puzzled about these things – it’s because they haven’t gotten to the true issue. I remember in 2016 some reporters did do this, and in the end support of TCFG was almost always about not liking immigrants and not liking Muslims. I think reporters became reluctant to dig down because they know this makes these voters look bad, and they don’t want to be accused of trying to make TCFG’s voters look bad.

  118. 118.

    Peale

    @Soprano2: Socially conservative Latinos left the democratic party and probably have never really been there. Do you think Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio just appeared in 2010? The Venezuelan upper classes who are in exile in Miami were never going to join up. Latino voters probably aren’t going to all that impressed by what you’re going to do to help undocumented immigrants, because they personally don’t have that particular issue, given that they are citizens already.  Their problems with the immigration system are probably things like “My sponsorship of my uncle is taking years to process” or “My spouse is kind of sorta not documented.” Biden tried to address that latter point, but as usual, white people want to talk about Latino gangs and Latino criminals and “who’ll be my nanny and who will mow my lawn if Trump wins and deports the undocumented.”

    The problem with outside of certain immigration issues, there aren’t a lot of issues that are unique to Hispanic voters. The issues that recent arrivals have don’t impact them as much because they aren’t recent arrivals.

  119. 119.

    PAM Dirac

    @sixthdoctor:

    did a good job defining Hogan on abortion

    Yes that was also a big reason why I thought Hogan couldn’t make up enough ground to win. MD voters know the MD abortion laws are pretty good, but a fair number of low information voters didn’t know that a number of those laws passed when the legislature overrode Hogan’s vetos. I saw a large number of ads hammering Hogan on those vetos and they make a short, simple, strong case against the myth of Hogan the moderate.

  120. 120.

    Yarrow

    For people freaking out, let it sink in that Kamala Harris is coming to Texas in the last 10 days of the campaign. For a rally. This sort of thing does not happen. Something is going on.

    Out of curiosity I watched a bit of the Resolute Square Strategy Session video from yesterday. It’s Lincoln Project people. Matthew Dodd, who ran W’s 2004 campaign and who lives in Texas, was part of the discussion about the visit and how things will go in Texas. He thinks Allred can win, maybe will win. People hate Ted Cruz. He told a story about how Republicans don’t like him. He is a bit angry that W won’t say he’s voting for Harris and he knows for sure W is voting for Allred because he hates Cruz that much. All of them on the video agree about that.

    He also thinks it’s possible Harris could win Texas but it’s a bit more of a long shot. I’m interested that Allred will be at the Houston rally stop. He has not been running toward Harris in Texas. He’s been keeping his distance. Are they seeing something in terms of vote movement now? Hmmm…

  121. 121.

    Soprano2

    @Eolirin:  What keeps me up at night is the Senate.

    Yes, it’s a sad truth that if we don’t have a Democratic Senate but Harris wins she probably won’t be able to appoint a cabinet or many judges. Republicans will try to block everything she tries to do, everyone she tries to appoint. It didn’t used to be like that.

  123. 123.

    Geminid

    @Bupalos: Ukrainian General Budanov says he expects North Korean soldiers to be deployed in the Ukraine theater by the end of this month.

  128. 128.

    Soprano2

    @Xantar: I believe they are unhappy about those things, but only one of those issues is specific to black men. The other three are problems for people in general no matter what color their skin is. There has been some progress, but it’s incremental, and some people are discouraged by this. I knew a woman who was discouraged by how slow the progress women were making was happening. I told her that if the progress is fast there’s more chance of a backlash that actually makes us go backwards (see the current crusade against trans people, for example). I understood her frustration, but I still believe that slow progress is better in the end because it’s more likely to be lasting progress. I know, however, that’s no guarantee, the first exhibit of that being Dobbs.

  129. 129.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Geminid:

    Putting on my long-discarded intelligence officer hat (I worked North Korea back in the day so actually have some background in this):

    I wonder what he’s basing that assessment on?

    North Korea’s never had a pot to piss in and has always looked for ways to generate income or foreign exchange.  Exporting low-quality small arms, then SCUD missile components, etc., was one way.  They probably never thought of using another resource, their concripts, as another way but if the Russians came calling, they wouldn’t say no if it meant money.

    But, my take would have been like Bupalos, bring them in to man Far East bases to free up Russian citizens to die in Ukraine.

    But again, sourcing of the Ukranian statement could change that assessment.

  130. 130.

    Bupalos

    @Soprano2: I don’t understand what people mean here when they say “it’s an excuse.” For who, excusing what, and how?

    Democrats are losing overwhelming support from citizens who are relatively recent descendants of Hispanic immigrants. This dynamic is roughly the same as our prior loss of the overwhelming support of Irish and then Polish and then Italians etc. It’s just the melting pot dissolving the bonds of group solidarity, and unleashing a little more IGMFY flavor into the stew. Our over reliance on identity coalition politics, as if these identity memberships are immutable over time- sets us up for failure and disappointment..

  131. 131.

    Velocifowl

    This is in the bag.  Please get over 2016.

    As a younger person there are some very important generational issues around 2016 that people seem to miss.  Clinton was uniquely horrible.  Growing up Hillary Clinton, Tipper Gore, and Joe Liberman lead a crusade against music, video games, and more.  The result was congressional hearings, legal battles, government censorship, to outright bans even into the Bush era.  This helped create online right wing asshole culture out there and generations of young people who view Democrats as the party of censorship, bans, and prudish fun haters.

    Harris is not that.  It’s not just the age difference but culturally and attitudally is very much on the same page as younger voters.  Moving past the Hillary Clinton and Joe Liberman era is something that should have happened with Obama.  Getting sucked back into it in 2016 was a fatal error that caused even more damage.   Harris an amazing chance to move past it and young people love her.

  132. 132.

    Geminid

    @Soprano2: A lot of those Harris/Hogan voters would self-describe as Independents, I think. Independents seem to hold a mish-mash of political beliefs, and one them is that divided government is a good thing.

  133. 133.

    Baud

    @Soprano2:

    A good example of the damage done when media and social media don’t inform people about our victories and focus all their attention on things that are less than perfect.

  134. 134.

    Baud

    @Bupalos: I agree with your second paragraph.

    The “excuse” is that people of the right, of all races, consistently blame Dems for failing them in some vague, abstract way rather than owning the fact that they made an adult political decision about which side’s vision they prefer.

  135. 135.

    Anonymous At Work

    Biggest laugh line from NBC clip was at the end.  As if Suzy Collins would trailblaze on an issue.  Worst Senatrix.  She would be the 59th to break filibuster if there wasn’t a 60th, she’d be the 49th to vote for abortion rights if there wasn’t a 50th, but she’ll never cross her party ever, without being a useless vote on the topic.

  136. 136.

    Soprano2

    @Peale:  The problem with outside of certain immigration issues, there aren’t a lot of issues that are unique to Hispanic voters. The issues that recent arrivals have don’t impact them as much because they aren’t recent arrivals.

    This is my point, that when I hear these voters say “Democrats aren’t addressing the issues that affect me” and the press then says “Democrats are losing Latinos because they aren’t addressing the issues that affect Latinos” I call bullshit on it. I know that not all Latin people are recent immigrants or liberal. I’m specifically addressing what I think is a bullshit press talking point.

  137. 137.

    Bupalos

    @Geminid: I am aware of that. Maybe not a popular thing to say, but I think his statement has to be understood in the context it is being made. Such a statement would have no military purpose and probably goes into the category of “if it was true there would be no reason to say it.” Ukraine’s political communication right now goes to two purposes – undermine Russian morale, and convince the West to break out of it’s strategic paralysis.

  138. 138.

    Ken

    @Soprano2:  I think stuff like this still horrifies most voters who aren’t MAGA’s

    And some who are. I was amused by Speaker Johnson’s horrified reaction when he was being interviewed about Trump’s “Arnold Palmer had a big dick” story. Though he was more upset that the interviewer kept saying one of Those Words (“penis”, I think), rather than that Trump was both vulgar and senile enough to tell dick stories on TV.

  139. 139.

    Soprano2

    @Baud: That’s true, but it would suck for her. This is one thing that’s changed that I think is particularly bad. Republicans used to say that the president was entitled to have the cabinet of their choice regardless of who controlled the Senate, so challenges weren’t that common. If this Senate is controlled by Republicans I expect them to challenge every person she nominates for her Cabinet and insist that she has to appoint Republicans in order to get them confirmed.

  141. 141.

    Geminid

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: General Budanov is head of Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, and he knows a lot about what goes on in Russia.

    Many other analysts also believe those North Koreans were sent to Russia to fight on the frontlines, perhaps the Kursk front. Anyway, we’ll know for sure before too long.

  143. 143.

    Baud

    @Soprano2:

    I can see it. Since the media owns a large share of liberals, they’ll pressure her to compromise no matter how unreasonable the demands.

  144. 144.

    Soprano2

    @Bupalos: When I say “it’s an excuse”, what I mean is that these people don’t want to say the real reason they’re supporting Republicans, which is probably some version of “I don’t like that gay stuff” or “I don’t like how so many women are in charge of things in the Democratic Party”. At least that’s how it comes across to me when they say Democrats aren’t addressing the issues they really care about, and then cite things that Democrats have addressed. They don’t want to tell the interviewer the real reason they prefer Republicans.

  145. 145.

    comrade scotts agenda of rage

    @Geminid:

    Which means his sourcing is potentially very good.

    It just dawned on me, perhaps from a North Korea standpoint, shipping out conscripts to die in Ukraine makes sense.

    One, as I stated above, Kim brings in either foreign exchange or perhaps Russia pays in kind, energy.  Either way, the Russians have plenty to offer to them.

    Two, they never come home.  Which means they don’t have to be fed since they never come back and given the xenophobia there, anybody who left would be “tainted” and thus never trusted again to be let back in and potentially taint others.

  146. 146.

    Geminid

    @Soprano2: The non-ideologues are in fact getting rarer, but if the Senate is only 51-49 Republican, Murkowski alone can provide the needed vote. I can think of a couple others too.

  147. 147.

    Bupalos

    @Geminid:General Budanov is head of Ukraine’s Intelligence Directorate, and….

    just blurts out whatever intelligence he comes up with? Did he mix up the cognac and sodium pentathol?

    There is no doubt Ukraine wants both Western and the Russian publics’ eyes on the ongoing internationalization of the conflict. A public statement like this is first and foremost a message to the public. And first and foremost political.

  150. 150.

    Bupalos

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: the issue of returning soldiers to the hermit kingdom is certainly interesting, as even third-tier Russian cities would be mind-blowingly lavish paradises to a North Korean. However reports are that these troops (again it looks like we’re talking about 6-12,000 maybe at this point) come from whatever North Korea considers “elite.” Which will mostly mean the most highly vetted for full brainwashing and/or who know their relatives can be tortured.

    it’s a really interesting question though and the main potential thorn here for DPRK.

  151. 151.

    Geminid

    @comrade scotts agenda of rage: I’ve read that these are not low-level conscripts only suitable for cannon fodder, but rather highly trained commandos who may prove quite dangerous.

    There’s a lot of reporting out there for those interested. I’m just picking up bits here and there while I look at Middle East news. Adam Silverman has covered this story in his Ukraine posts.

  152. 152.

    Bill Arnold

    @Steve:
    For the two weeks before a general election?
    Suppressing Democratic Party messaging without disrupting GOP messaging?

  153. 153.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @Mousebumples:

    I also have heard (*anecdata) from Shy Harris voters. They say they’re voting for Trump (or Stein, in one case) but they’re voting for Kamala but can’t tell their husband/friends/church, etc. They could be lying to me, too, but I believe them.

    I suspect that at least some of them won’t tell exit pollers on Election Day either. So while it’s admittedly hopium, I suspect Harris may do better than the initial election night exit polls. Whether that makes a significant difference remains to be seen.

  155. 155.

    Bupalos

    @Geminid: the best discussion of this I think is (as usual) Mark Galleotti. He has a little supplement to his podcast specifically on the issue.

  156. 156.

    Geminid

    @Bupalos: I can tell you know very little about Kiryly Budanov. It makes me wonder how much you know about this war which you comment upon with such certainty.

    But like I said above, it won’t be long before this is no longer a matter of speculation.

  158. 158.

    Betty Cracker

    @lowtechcyclist: & @Bupalos: Chris Hayes recently had a discussion on the rise of the Latino right with an author whose name I can’t recall at the moment. (This was on his podcast, not his MSNBC show.) It was worth a listen if you’re interested in the topic.

    Some folks scoff at the notion that Repubs could build a multiracial MAGA coalition, but it’s not so easy to dismiss that idea if you live in a place like Florida and see it with your own eyes. The author Hayes interviewed shed some new (to me) light on how the movement is evolving and the historical phenomena that undergird it.

  159. 159.

    Bupalos

    @Ksmiami: I don’t see a proto-fascist regime cutting its own legs out by removing citizenship from its supporters. Converts are always the most valuable and fervent supporters.

    There are lots of places where I think folks on our side overestimate right-wing populism’s strength. But one place where it’s subtly underestimating it is insisting on it proceeding in a narrowly “racial” way. That was available in Germany but is almost certainly not available here. Our fascists will understand this and preserve more strategic flexibility wrt “race” than many of us can envision.

  160. 160.

    geg6

    @Soprano2:

    All of this.  And when they do encounter them, they do it from the same frame as if they are examining an exotic animal that amazes and amuses them.  It’s disgusting and why I’ve given up on the msm.

  161. 161.

    Bupalos

    @Geminid: I’m not claiming special knowledge about him beyond a few hours of Galleti’s and Vexler’s podcasts. What are you suggesting you know about him that would refute the idea that this is intentional strategic communication?

  162. 162.

    jonas

    @Belafon: I’m sure their commanders and the DPRK leadership have made very clear that anyone who pulls shit like that will have their entire family disappeared into a brutal internment camp immediately.

    As Adam was explaining the other night, it’s not exactly clear what these guys are going to do or if they’ll be put into direct front line combat against Ukraine, but they are hard core and shouldn’t be underestimated.

  165. 165.

    Belafon

    @Bupalos: Yeah, it’s a shame that “You’re going to get deported because Republicans don’t think you’re American” doesn’t work.

  166. 166.

    Gloria DryGarden

    @Soprano2: just Latinos don’t want to be deported or mistreated, but they’re often Catholics, and are anti abortion.  Have had some conversation wither rapidly over this..

  167. 167.

    Geminid

    @Bupalos: I did not say this was not intentional strategic communication. You trivialized Budanov’s statement, and it seemed like you did not take him as seriously as people more knowledgeable than either of us would.

    You got this ball rolling at comment #114, when you said it is “highly unlikely” that these North Korean troops will ever be deployed to Ukraine. That prediction will prove out in coming days and maybe then we can argue about it more.

  168. 168.

    Gloria DryGarden

    @Starfish: late, but

    i really hate when talking points and points of view are framed as innocent questions.
    slips a twisted reality into the center of the frame, puts the other person in a defensive position.
    thank goddess  Harris is amazing at getting right back on track…

  169. 169.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Peale: The problem with outside of certain immigration issues, there aren’t a lot of issues that are unique to Hispanic voters.

    THIS!  And this is what makes this whole conversation so frustrating. I have a friend who is an Uber-progressive immigration lawyer and DACA recipient herself.  She constantly bashes Dems for:

    1.) grouping Latino/a/x voters together (they all have different views, issues etc.)

    2.) not messaging doing enough outreach to Latino/a/x voters (which requires grouping them together)

    3.) thinking Immigration is their only issue etc.

    I’ve been following her for years and I’m still waiting to hear what those other issues are that aren’t already being addressed by Dems.    They are usually specifically geared around healthcare access, education, voting access, jobs etc., with a focus on Spanish language outreach.  All stuff that Dems are constantly working on and in places where we have enough political control (like CA) have already made great progress.  Many of them are STATE/local issues, not something POTUS or even Congress can fix.  I’ve come to the sad conclusion that she just likes to use her identity to bash Dems for failing to reach out to her personally, just like so many White People (Libertarians/Independents/NPAs) often do.

  171. 171.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Gloria DryGarden: Yup.  And if their anti-abortion stance is so strong that it is a deal-breaker, that is a THEM problem not a Dem coalition problem.  Dems aren’t (and shouldn’t) concede on certain issues.  And people who expect them to do so and then whine when Dems won’t throw other, large groups under the bus, and hide behind their identity/ethnicity/race etc., it’s bullshit.  It’s no different than the “Feminist” assholes who will say they just can’t support Dems unless they sign on to Trans Healthcare Bans.  Fuck ’em.

  172. 172.

    Geminid

    @UncleEbeneezer: Have you followed the race between Rep. David Valadeo and (I think) Rudy Salinas in the southern Central Valley? It’s a potential Democratic pickup. The Hispanic vote will be very important in this district.

  173. 173.

    Dave

    @Bupalos: Clearly he has reasons to share this and it is reasonable to be skeptical; your position is taking that too far.  We know he has motivation to make the statements and we can presume that he wouldn’t want to entirely make it up whole cloth and that’s about it. It neither serves to prove or disprove his statement.

    NK soldiers are likely being used in some manner if it’s what you proposed, what the Ukrainians are claiming, or something else we in our current position don’t have more than a modest ability to judge until after the fact.

  174. 174.

    Dave

    @Ksmiami: Yes they assume they are normal and that the rhetoric is aimed at others.  Which will be true until it isn’t any such regime that gains sufficient power and momentum is not likely to care that actually you were born a citizen or you are part of more “respectable” group A as opposed to those people over there.

  175. 175.

    Dave

    @Bupalos: Nothing; the thing is that intentional strategic communication can well be true.  Some are taking his comments with more certitude than is warranted but your own comment is also more certain than is warranted.

    We simply don’t know in this case if he really believes it or is taking a useful bit of analysis and applying it.

  176. 176.

    Soprano2

    @UncleEbeneezer:   I’ve come to the sad conclusion that she just likes to use her identity to bash Dems for failing to reach out to her personally, just like so many White People (Libertarians/Independents/NPAs) often do.

    DING DING DING we have a winner! You stated it better than I have, because this is exactly my feeling about it. The problem is that the press then uses it to spread the “Democrats are losing “group x” because they aren’t addressing their issues”, when the truth is more what you said here. Either that, or these people are lying about the real reason they are against the Democrats.

  177. 177.

    Citizen Alan

    @Geminid: I nearly got an apartment in Valadeo’s district just so I could vote against him, but the kitchen was just too small.

  178. 178.

    Geminid

    @Citizen Alan: I noticed an interesting aspect of Valdeo’s last reelection: the total number of votes was way lower than that seen in other California districts. Since Congressional districts within a given state are close to equal in population, I’m guessing there are a lot of unregistered and/or people ineligible to vote in Valdeo’s district.

  180. 180.

    jefft452

    “I never thought I would die fighting side by side with a Juggalo”

    “How about beside a friend?”

    “Aye, that I can do”

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