(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie seems to be coming out of her chemo reaction. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, I’m going to just run the basics again as I begin to recover from a very, very long week.
Russia had strategic aviation up as of 11:40 PM local time in Ukraine. Air raid alerts have either been up or gone up and down over most of central, northern, and eastern Ukraine for hours. The alerts just went up – 8:05 PM EDT/3:05 PM local time in Ukraine – over all of eastern Ukraine. As of right now 1/2 of Ukraine is under air raid alert.
Russian attack on Ukraine continues: Missile strike in Dnipro hit hospital and residential building: 3 killed, 14 wounded; In Kyiv, 1 killed (14 or 15 year old girl), 4 wounded as drone debris strike on high-rise starts fire. Two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers in air in Russia. pic.twitter.com/uaKRpaYEDq
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 25, 2024
Kyiv right now: Russian drone hits residential building, killing at least one. This is the daily reality of Russian terror against Ukraine. Is the UN already very concerned? pic.twitter.com/lgTXAEDtZp
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 25, 2024
Russia murdered a 15 years old girl during today’s attack on Kyiv https://t.co/4jCESggq8r
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 25, 2024
Russia also struck Dnipro today, killing at least 2 and injuring 10, including an 8 years old girl. pic.twitter.com/CiY3DuKmiu
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 25, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
In November, We Will Be Ready to Present the Final Document for the Second Peace Summit – Address by the President
25 October 2024 – 20:51
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
I have just held quite an extensive meeting with the military, intelligence, the NSDC Secretary, Government officials, and the Office, following a recent meeting with civil society representatives. At that meeting, we discussed the issues that currently limit Ukraine’s potential and how they can be resolved. In particular, I have given instructions to establish a format for a Technology Stаff – a special format to increase the modern capabilities of our Defense and Security Forces. The highest priority is, of course, drones. Including those capable of intercepting “Shahed” and other strike UAVs. In general, many purely military issues were discussed. I also instructed the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, together with the Security Service of Ukraine, to specifically address the issue of releasing civilians from Russian captivity. So far, the results in this regard are insufficient. We have also worked on some necessary legislative changes, and on sanctions policy, on our diplomacy. I will hear the results in a couple of weeks.
Today, I have also met with the new ambassadors of the partner states. I accepted their letters of credence. Representatives of Finland, Brazil, Ireland, Montenegro, Iceland and Lithuania. I spoke with each of them. We will be grateful for the joint work aimed at supporting our people, international law, and aimed at bringing a just peace closer.
Also today, a conference was held based on the Peace Formula point of one of the fundamental conditions for ending the war and preventing new aggression, namely the withdrawal of the occupying army from the territory of Ukraine. This is what is really necessary to restore justice. The conference was attended by representatives of more than 50 countries and international organizations. Quite a broad representation. Yesterday in Latvia, in parallel with the Summit of our Crimea Platform, a conference was held on another point of the Peace Formula, the one dedicated to the full implementation of the UN Charter, and more than 60 countries and international organizations took part in that conference. Starting from August and up to November, all the points of the Peace Formula are worked out within the framework of such conferences – all of them with good representation of the world. There have already been meetings on nuclear safety, energy, food, and environmental security – following the Kakhovka dam explosion and all the Russian strikes. In other words, all aspects of Russian aggression will be included in a separate document, which should become a substantive framework for the second Peace Summit. A step-by-step path to peace. Now, at the end of October, another very important conference will be held on humanitarian aspects – the release of prisoners and the return of deported children. After that, in November, we will be ready to present the final document for the second Peace Summit. I am grateful to everyone who helps. I thank our team, primarily the Office, for organizing this work with partners. Ukraine was the first to propose a comprehensive and realistic way to end the war – it happened more than two years ago – the Peace Formula. Based on the UN Charter. And we managed to unite representatives from all parts of the world to implement the Formula. We held the inaugural Peace Summit – a very successful one. One hundred countries and international organizations attended. We must do everything to ensure that the next Peace Summit is held, which will put an end to the war – a just end. One that will reliably guarantee the security of our state and people.
And one more thing.
Now, at all levels of our state, preparations for the coming months should be underway. The heating season. Winter. A lot of work in the energy sector – protecting facilities, working on system stability. Regions are preparing, communities are preparing. The army is preparing. And in addition to these systemic things, there are decisions that can be made directly to support people. I have instructed the Government to launch a new program as of December 1, which will be tangible for every family in Ukraine. E-support for all our people – adults, children, every family – in Ukraine. One thousand hryvnias per person – that’s several thousand hryvnias per family, and the money can be spent on Ukrainian goods and services, including utilities and electricity. Tickets, this is Ukrzaliznytsia. Ukrainian medicines. I have also given instructions that this money can be spent on Ukrainian books and cultural services. It can be donated to the military – to volunteers, for drones. The Cabinet of Ministers must work out all the details and present all this to the people. I expect this to happen soon. On December 1, people should have money.
Glory to Ukraine!
Yemen:
So? And?
A little while ago, we discussed this thing about anonymous U.S. officials fearing that permitting Ukraine to strike critical military targets in Russian territory could motivate the Kremlin for “horizontal escalation,” such as assisting Houthis in their attacks on… pic.twitter.com/qPWiCI5fKK
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 25, 2024
So? And?
A little while ago, we discussed this thing about anonymous U.S. officials fearing that permitting Ukraine to strike critical military targets in Russian territory could motivate the Kremlin for “horizontal escalation,” such as assisting Houthis in their attacks on global navigation.
So, did not crossing yet another “red line” help prevent what Russia is doing now?
Did the Kremlin appreciate the fact that Ukraine is not allowed to use Western weapons to strike Russian ammo depots, airbases, logistics, fuel storages etc?
Did yet another “red line” work to make Putin “de-escalate”? Last week, did that stop him from involving North Korea in war to exterminate Ukraine?
How many more times does Putin have to spit in the West’s face so that anonymous U.S. officials finally realize that the religion of “escalation management” does not work and that the Kremlin is and will always be doing anything and everything it can regardless of the West’s destructive self-restraint.
We keep wasting time, resources, and, most importantly, lives to delusional tactics of trying to reason with the maniac and wait for Jesus to come back and deliver us from Putin.
North Korea:
South Korean intelligence says Pyongyang might only have enough spare ammunition stocks to supply fascist Russia for another 3 months. Might that be connected to the decision to send combat troops to war in Ukraine? Anyway, Russia could be short of shells as early as January. https://t.co/R8r7j8qvw0
— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 25, 2024
Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:
🤬🇰🇵 Only 30% of shells fired by the Kremlin’s forces recently were Russian-made. Of the remainder, 60% came from North Korea and 10% were Iranian-made, – Bloomberg
🚀 Pyongyang has sent approximately 8 million rounds since August last year, the analysis showed. About 100 Hwasong-11 missiles as well as Bulsae-4 anti-tank weapons have also been detected on the battlefield in Ukraine for the first time.
One of Russia’s useful idiots in the US:
We now know why right-wing influencer Black Insurrectionist deactivated his account last week.@AP tracked him down and realised not only is he white, he’s millions in debt, accused of defrauding business partners, and the FBI previously raided his home.https://t.co/4LrTbTDQdk https://t.co/Okf1ZRnwkj
— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) October 25, 2024
From The AP:
WASHINGTON (AP) — “Black Insurrectionist,” the anonymous social media persona behind some of the most widely circulated conspiracy theories about the 2024 election, can be traced to a man from upstate New York.
He’s also white.
With a profile photo of a Black soldier and the tagline “I FOLLOW BACK TRUE PATRIOTS,” the account on the platform X amassed more than 300,000 followers while posting dubious claims about Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Some were amplified by former President Donald Trump, his running mate Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and their Republican allies in Congress. The most salacious claims have come in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Last month, the account posted what Black Insurrectionist claimed was an affidavit from an ABC News employee, alleging Harris was given questions in advance of the network’s debate with Trump — which ABC News vigorously disputed. Trump approved, though, declaring, “I love the person.” More recently, Black Insurrectionist posted a baseless claim alleging inappropriate behavior between Walz and a student decades ago, a falsehood that U.S. intelligence officials said sprang from a Russian disinformation campaign.
The reach that the Black Insurrectionist account attained with assistance from Trump and his allies demonstrates the ease with which unverified information from dubious sources can metastasize online to shape public opinion. The speed and scale of disinformation has been an animating force in the presidential campaign, with the potential to affect the outcome in a close election.
The Black Insurrectionist account is linked directly to Jason G. Palmer, who has his own questionable backstory, starting with the fact that he isn’t Black, according to an Associated Press review of public records, open source data and interviews with a half-dozen people who interacted closely with Palmer over the past two decades. The records and personal accounts offer a portrait of an individual who has repeatedly been accused of defrauding business partners and lenders, has struggled with drug addiction and whose home was raided by the FBI over a decade ago. He also owes more than $6.7 million in back taxes to the state of New York.
“He’s far from African American,” said Kathleen Albano, who said her deceased husband was involved in a failed business venture with Palmer.
In emails and phone conversations, Palmer, 51, made a series of seemingly contradictory claims about his ties to the account, which was deactivated last week several hours after the AP first reached out to Palmer for comment.
He acknowledged in an email that he was involved with the account, but said that he did not create it. He also claimed to have owned it at one point before selling it in April or May to a person who he declined to identify.
“I do not know what is going on with this account,” Palmer wrote in an email last Thursday.
But in an interview on Tuesday he said he participated in making claims about Walz that were posted to the account this month. And he suggested that he worked as a “researcher” with a broader group.
“We did that with big people. National people,” Palmer said. “I have no comment on anything else regarding that.”
He also said that the account was primarily operated by a friend of his who is Black. He repeatedly declined to identify who that was, or put the AP in touch with the person.
A spokesperson for X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, did not respond to a request for comment.
The AP traced the account to Palmer based on posts made by Black Insurrectionist that included biographical details about living in upstate New York, a screenname and an email address. Those details cross-referenced with information available online that the AP tracked down with assistance from Gisela Pérez de Acha, an open source reporting specialist for the Human Rights Center at University of California, Berkley.
A video posted in March by Black Insurrectionist shows a computer screen displaying the docket of Trump’s election case in the Georgia. His initials “JP” are visible in an icon on the web browser’s toolbar. And Palmer’s email address can be seen in the corner of the screen, indicating that he used it to log into the state’s online court system.
The email address is linked to a phone number, according to opensource data provider Osint.Industries, that is listed for Palmer in New York court records. The same email is also linked to a Skype account with the username “jg palmrt,” according to the opensource data provider Epieos. Palmer’s middle initial is “G.”
Palmer also used similar iterations of the email address in the past, according to court records.
The suggestion that Palmer was involved with an account that spread falsehoods about the upcoming election was not a surprise to those who have had business and personal dealings with Palmer over the past two decades.
“He owes me a ton of money,” said Albano, whose late husband had a business relationship with Palmer. “He has a way of roping people in. I always had his number. I knew exactly who he was. But unfortunately my husband got caught up in a lot of those dealings.”
Albano said Palmer purchased a Webster, New York, home from her and her husband but failed to make payments. She said Palmer talked her husband into a investment venture to recoup the money, which also ended poorly.
“None of it materialized ever,” Albano said.
Unlike other Palmer business associates, Albano said the couple chose not to sue because “you can’t get blood from a stone.”
Palmer denied Albano’s account. He said that Albano’s late husband was his accountant and that he paid off a mortgage on the home. He denied that they ever had extensive business dealings.
In the mid-2000s, Palmer embarked on a real estate venture, buying up commercial properties in downtown Rochester. It ended with a string of lawsuits from creditors and former business partners, seeking tens of millions of dollars in unpaid loans and assets. Palmer blamed his troubles with the venture, in part, on an opioid addiction he had at the time.
Some former business partners alleged Palmer tried to seize control of buildings using documents with their signatures forged, according to court records.
In a 2020 case in Oneida County, New York, a forensic specialist conducted a detailed analysis of a document signing over an apartment complex to a company in which Palmer held a stake. The specialist concluded that “the evidence indicates that the signatures and the notary seal” were produced “by way of cut and paste or digital manipulation.”
Palmer said that it was actually his former business partner, William Mendick, who had defrauded him. The case, which was brought by Palmer, was dismissed in 2022.
Maureen Bass, a bankruptcy attorney in Rochester, said she wasn’t shocked by Palmer’s connection to an X account spreading conspiracy theories. Bass represented Wells Fargo in a commercial foreclosure case against Palmer and recalled that he once sent her old firm a lengthy email “manifesto” that accused local government officials of conspiring against him.
“It was rambling. He had been a victim of the ‘Axis of Evil.’ Politicians had done things to him, and had taken his assets,” Bass said. “So this doesn’t surprise me.”
If you click through and see his picture, we’re back to this classic:
And a bit more on another of Putin’s reflexively controlled assets in the US who also does not have a chin:
So the guy who has been in regular contact with Putin is now doing everything in his power to elect the candidate who promised to cut off aid to Ukraine & force them to surrender
It’s clear now more than ever: a vote for Trump is a vote for Putin
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 25, 2024
What the @WSJ investigation inexplicably leaves out—while confirming Elon Musk is an unregistered foreign agent of Russia and in violation of the Logan Act—is that Musk purchased Twitter with financing from the children of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Why wasn’t this mentioned?…
— Andrea Chalupa (@AndreaChalupa) October 25, 2024
What the @WSJ investigation inexplicably leaves out—while confirming Elon Musk is an unregistered foreign agent of Russia and in violation of the Logan Act—is that Musk purchased Twitter with financing from the children of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Why wasn’t this mentioned?
https://dw.com/en/what-do-xs-alleged-ties-to-russian-oligarchs-mean-for-musk/a-70088598
From DW:
Court documents released last week by the US District Court for the Northern District of California shed light on shareholders and investors involved with Elon Musk’s X Holdings Corp, disclosing who helped to finance his $44 billion (€40 billion) acquisition of the platform formerly known as Twitter in 2022.
The filing, obtained by the Washington Post, lists around 100 entities and individuals, including prominent Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, but also individuals that reportedly have links to Russian oligarchs.
Lawyers for the nonprofit Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press filed a motion in July asking the court to unseal the records, on behalf of independent technology journalist Jacob Silverman.
On his website, Silverman wrote that, “I believe that people have a right to know who owns a company with such a prominent role in shaping public discourse, both in the United States and around the world.”
Ties to Russian oligarchs?
One of firms listed is 8VC, a venture capitalist company co-founded by Joe Lonsdale, co-founder of intelligence contractor and data analysis platform Palantir.
8VC has invested in US defense projects with Lonsdale arguing that China’s growing influence is behind his firm’s move to back military startups.
Speaking at an event in March, Lonsdale said China is “building really advanced things that they’re starting to compete with the US.”
“That became a very scary realization to us about 10 years ago so we went hard into defense,” he said.
On the fund’s website, Denis Aven and Jack Moshkovich pop up in the staff section — the sons of sanctioned Russian oligarchs Petr Aven and Vadim Moshkovich. The former is co-founder of Alfa-Bank, Russia’s largest private bank, and LetterOne Holdings investment company. He’s been sanctioned as part of the measures imposed on Russian individuals in the wake of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Moshkovich, meanwhile, made his fortune in the agro-industrial business with his Rusagro Group company. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine he was sanctioned by Western countries due to his alleged ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
There is nothing to suggest that the sanctioned fathers have any financial ties with 8VC. However, their sons’ roles are likely to come under further scrutiny, as the US government is becoming increasingly wary of foreign actors’ ties to the tech industry.
The National Counterintelligence and Security Center recently released a bulletin warning Silicon Valley startups about foreign players using investment deals to exploit sensitive data.
At the time of writing 8VC had not responded to DW’s request for comment.
More at the link.
Also, as far as I know I am not related to Jacob Silverman.
I’ll have more on the traitorous Starlink Snowflake, as well as that traitor Dougan tomorrow.
France:
“We cannot leave the security of Europe in the hands of voters in Wisconsin every 4 years” says France’s Europe Minister
“Let’s get out of collective denial. Europeans must take their destiny into their own hands, regardless of who is elected 🇺🇸president” pic.twitter.com/lzclaj5VlD
— Dave Keating (@DaveKeating) October 25, 2024
Ukraine has successfully completed tests of its new HRIM-2 ballistic missile, which, according to some reports, has a range of up to 500 km and a warhead of up to 500 kg. Factories, warehouses and airfields will be its first targets… pic.twitter.com/PnYssD6TaK
— Claretta Nijhuis (@NijhuisClaretta) October 25, 2024
Kyiv:
Peaceful Russian-Iranian drones were just peacefully hitting Kyiv residential buildings tonight pic.twitter.com/78bS6bE5US
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 25, 2024
Zaporizhzhia:
Aussies pushing back a Russian assault in Zaporizhzhia.
Absolute. Fucking. Legends. pic.twitter.com/j2wFi6Dc4F
— pepeppepppepep 🇺🇦🇦🇺 (@pepeppepppepep) October 25, 2024
Bucha:
Just another night in Bucha.
It’s 3 a.m. pic.twitter.com/N161zAxmjf
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 25, 2024
Pokrovsk:
Mykola Leontovych, a Ukrainian composer, wrote the famous “Carol of the Bells” in Pokrovsk 120 years ago – a music heard in homes across Europe and America each Christmas. On January 23, 1921, a Soviet agent murdered him. Today, Russian forces are trying to erase Pokrovsk as well
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 25, 2024
Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
“NEMESIS” unit of the USF of Ukraine bombards Russian BUK-M3 air defence system, and 9S36 radar of the BUK-M2 air defence system with the help of heavy night bomber-drone. https://t.co/g2VGIR3i4j https://t.co/bwXFAWcobw pic.twitter.com/xZH5zbJoGt
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 25, 2024
Unmanned Systems Forces report that another Russian Buk-M3 air defense system and 9S36 radar of the Buk-M2 air defense system were targeted by Ukrainian heavy night bomber drones.
“On the night of October 25, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,… https://t.co/gmDRsw5Uww pic.twitter.com/r4UJCWHEck
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 25, 2024
Unmanned Systems Forces report that another Russian Buk-M3 air defense system and 9S36 radar of the Buk-M2 air defense system were targeted by Ukrainian heavy night bomber drones.
“On the night of October 25, units of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in cooperation with other components of the Defense Forces, as part of the implementation of tasks to detect and eliminate the enemy’s anti-aircraft defenses, hit the Buk-M3 anti-aircraft missile system and destroyed the target illumination and guidance radar station missiles 9S36 of the Buk-M2 air defense system.
The targets were located in the temporarily occupied territory of the Luhansk region, several dozens of kilometers from the front line.”
The Kursk cross border offensive:
A U.S. official told me that HUR’s intel — that a North Korean advance party has arrived in Kursk — is correct.
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) October 25, 2024
Compilation of destroyed Russian military equipment in the Kursk region. Video by the 82nd Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/f9S7g5zkac pic.twitter.com/YN13op7W8q
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 25, 2024
Kharkiv:
Kharkiv region is under almost non-stop attack of russian drones and glide bombs. Thus is how our evening looks: pic.twitter.com/UrAya7Smfa
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 25, 2024
Kazan, Russia:
Putin, thrown off balance by Steve’s tremendous question, actually tells the truth about why he is waging a war against Ukraine. He essentially says he is lashing out at Ukraine because he felt he was slighted by the west. He course corrects to make it about national security.… https://t.co/gw7BIqLQnH
— Bakhti Nishanov (@b_nishanov) October 25, 2024
Putin, thrown off balance by Steve’s tremendous question, actually tells the truth about why he is waging a war against Ukraine. He essentially says he is lashing out at Ukraine because he felt he was slighted by the west. He course corrects to make it about national security. But that’s the truth. This is not about NATO. Putin felt slighted and is taking it out on Ukraine. He is saying so himself.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Час біжить, а моя любов до сну залишається незмінною 🤭🥱 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Time passes, but my love for sleep remains unchanged 🤭🥱 #песпатрон
Open thread!
Jay
As always, thank you Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849724491540099307#m
Slava Ukraini, Heroiam slava
KatKapCC
So Putin got his little feelings hurt and decided to work out his anger by trying to destroy a sovereign nation. So glad we have so many people in this country who see him as a role model -_-
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1849523231771820130#m
7min, 44 seconds video.
Adam L Silverman
Sleepy time.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
Sister Golden Bear
Thanks as always Adam.
Interesting (to me) tangent… Drone maker DJI has released its entry level, Neo, which sells for US $199. While it’s marketed as a beginners’ selfie-drone, it can also be flown as a conventional drone, either via a phone app (albeit only within wifi distance), or by using a controller that’s only $99. (It can also be flown using the more expensive first-person view controllers.) I’ve been looking at getting one and it turns out the thing is pretty indestructible. One YouTuber, who was testing it to destruction, needed to fly in at full speed into a concrete wall multiple times before it was damaged (and even then it was still flyable). Which makes it potentially well suited for battlefield conditions, and it fits in the palm of your hand making it really hard to see in the air (albeit it’s a bit noisy). I’ll be curious to see if Ukraine’s boffins come up with some interesting uses for it. E.g. it could be a squad-level recon drone, or mini-suicide drone.
Bill Arnold
@Sister Golden Bear:
Interesting. Seeing a report that it can carry up to 50 grams.
Jay
Or worse,
https://nitter.poast.org/GlasnostGone/status/1849737208472752425#m
wjca
@Jay:
Do those countries have laws about child abuse? Seems like the parents have done that.
Jay
@wjca:
Yup, like I have said, the calls are coming from inside the house.
Argiope
@wjca: Finland? That’s shocking. Finns have a long history with their imperial-minded neighbor and are more realistic about Putin than we seemingly are. Huh.
Jay
@Argiope:
Post WWII, Finland had a complex and difficult relationship with the Soviet Union, where in the Soviet Union’s issues always had to be accepted.
Post Soviet break up, Finland got more “room”.
Then came the 90’s, where ruZZian Oil and Gas made a lot of Finn’s rich.
Then in the Aught’s, ruZZia started buying politicians and funding Reich Wing Parties, which Finland has a bunch of and still does.
So while there is a minority of Finn’s who are willing ruZZian propagandists, collaberators, bought Politicians, Reich Wing Parties and Neo-Nazi’s, it’s enough to fill several children’s “summer camps”.
YY_Sima Qian
High level analysis by CSIS on Russian fire strikes (drones, cruise missiles & ballistic missiles) against Ukraine through the course of the current invasion:
YY_Sima Qian
High level analysis by CSIS on Russian long range strikes (drones & cruise/ballistic missiles) against Ukraine through the course of the current invasion:
YY_Sima Qian
High level analysis by CSIS on Russian long range strikes (drones & cruise/ballistic missiles) against Ukraine through the course of the current invasion:
YY_Sima Qian
Tangentially relevant: wonderful investigative reporting from WaPo (in spite of its risible publisher) on the veritable “sanctions industrial complex” of foreign & domestic money that has sprung up in the wake of the US becoming increasingly enamored w/ sanctions as a key tool of foreign policy over the past decade. 5th of the series called the “Money War”:
Here is Jeff Stein’s summary on Twitter if you cannot access behind the paywall (more through the link)
It’s not just the sanctioned countries/regimes/entities/individuals that lobby for relief, it’s US companies lobbying the administration & Congress to sanction their competitors in order to kneecap them. There is also the perverse dynamic where US sanctions against targeted regimes mainly serve to weaken the economies of the countries that the targeted regimes rule (& far less the members of the regimes themselves), while said regime also spend some of their meager resources on lobbying in DC to attempt to secure sanctions relief (instead of spending the money of public welfare or domestic investment.
I doubt anyone will be surprised by the fact that DC is awash in foreign money, from adversaries, rivals, competitors, neutral parties, partners & allies alike, all seeking to influence US policy & actions to further their interests, which are not always aligned w/ the US’ interests (even if the party paying for the lobbying is a US ally/partner). That is just the way US politics work.
This is the earlier WaPo article on the rise of sanctions & economic warfare as US FP tool, 1st of the series:
Here is a Twitter thread from Jeff Stein that summarizes the key points, in case you do not have access (& more background material through the link):
YY_Sima Qian
Heh, as Israel retaliates against the Iranian retaliation, the KSA is desperately trying to make sure Iran does not escalate horizontally by strike its oil facilities (as some IRGC generals have suggested):
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
read an expose a couple of weeks ago on how ruZZia skirts EU sanctions.
“Company” in the ‘stans orders and pays for sanctioned stuff that cannot be supplied to ruZZia.
Requires ground shipping.
Shipment crosses the border into beloruZZia or ruZZia, and get’s redirected.
“Company” in the ‘stans reports “shipment received.
YY_Sima Qian
I admit doing a double take when coming across this in my Twitter feed:
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: When there is demand, human “ingenuity” will ensure supply.
YY_Sima Qian
I definitely give the Biden Administration credit for successfully maneuvering to cap the Israeli retaliation to Iranian retaliation to directly militarily relevant sites, & coercing some effort from Bibi not to escalate further w/ Iran at this moment. Whether this is merely a speed bump on the region’s rushes headlong into chaos remains to be seen.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
It’s not even that “ingenious”.
If the ‘stan Company get’s “caught”, by their parts showing up in ruZZian weapons, they can just claim a combo of “bad record keeping” and train/truck looting in ruZZia or beloruZZia.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: Joint naval maneuvers can be a continuation of diplomacy. When Presidents Biden and Erdogan met on the sidelines of the July, 2023 Nato summit in Vilnius, it seemed that could have been a turning point after a decade or more of friction and distrust between their two nations.
The next month, events in the eastern Mediterranean tended to confirm that it was. The USS Ford and Turkiye’s carrier Andalou were seen steaming together on a joint exercise, with Turkish F-16s and US Navy jets flying nearby. Turkiye has participated in Nato Air force exercises throughout its estrangement from the US, but it had been years since they’d conducted joint, one-on-one naval manouvers with American ships.
Then former Senator Jeff Flake and Selim Bayraktar landed on the Ford for a visit. Flake is U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye, while Bayraktar is Chief Technical Officer and co-owner of drone maker Baykar Industries. He’s also R.T. Erdogan’s son-in-law. The Ford’s Captain invited Bayraktar to the bridge and sat him in the Captain’s chair, a signal courtesy.
A few days later the Ford made a port call at Antalya while the 6th Fleet’s flagship called at Istanbul. None of this would have happened before Biden’s and Erdogan’s successful meeting in Vilnius
There was another diplomatically significant naval exercise a year or so before that: an Israeli navy ship sailed down the Red Sea to participate in its country’s first CENTCOM exercise alongside US and Arab ships. This would have been unthinkable five years before, as would have been Israeli participation in the alliance itself. And the U.S. could never have brought Israel into its CENTCOM alliance without the Saudis’ approval.
As you suggest, a joint exercise between Iran and Saudi Arabia would also have been unthinkable a few years ago.
This is all smart naval diplomacy on Saudi Arabia’s part, I think. Like them or not, the Saudis play a pivotal role in the region and they are prioritizing stability. Of course, regional stability is clearly in the Saudi Arabia’s own interests, but it’s also in the interests of everyone in the region, the Israelis and the Iranians most of all.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: The US-Türkiye relations were merely tense, the Saudi-Iranian relations were kinetically hostile. The IRGC struck Saudi oil refineries in retaliation for the Saudi led war against the Houthis, & did not claim responsibility.
I do wonder what MBS’ game here is, but the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement (facilitated by the PRC) may actually prove just resilient enough to survive through these turmoil.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: Details of the Sino-Indian disengagement/patrol deconfliction agreement:
Depsang & Demchok were the last two sectors where the two countries had yet to reach agreement on disengagement. Timing the respective patrols so that they never come in contact w/ each other will greatly reduce the risk of scuffles getting out of hand & scuttle the larger bilateral relations (as what happened at Galwan Valley in Apr. ’20).
Looking back, the Sino-Indian protocols from ’96 forbidding the use of firearms along the disputed border prevented Stone & Iron Age brawls from escalating into high intensity border skirmishes on more than a few occasions. The relevant language:
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: The Saudi/Iranian rapprochement occurred along with a ceasefire in Yemen’s terrible civil war. That ceasefire seems to be holding up and could durable. I think one reason the U.S. limited its response to Houthi attacks on shipping was a fear of destabilizing the Yemen again.
But the U.S. has upped the tempo of its attacks on Houthi military assets recently, and that could be the new normal until, for one reason or another, the Houthis give up their anti-shipping campaign.
Oman played a significant role in the improvement in Iranian/Saudi relations. Much of the groundwork for the meeting in China was done in Oman. Besides being both countries’ neighbor, Oman is a favored venue for unpublicized diplomatic talks including meetings between American and Iranian representatives. I sometimes think the motto of Oman’s Foreign Ministry is, “What happens in Oman, stays in Oman.”
And Oman practices its own naval diplomacy. Earlier this month an Omani ship participated in a naval exercise along with Iranian and Russian ships. I doubt if the Omanis invited the Russians to make a port call, though.
wjca
That would definitely get a double-take from me as well!
Amazing geopolitical changes seem to be in train. Spurred in part, I suspect, by the sudden uncertainty about where the US political system might go.
wjca
To my mind, one of the most significant changes to the US infatuation with sanctions is the growing use of sanctions on individual oligarchs (and even their families) who are the core of support for their regimes. Those folks have continued to live the good life in the West, even as their countries and their companies were under sanctions. Losing the freedom to vacation on the Riviera may get their attention like nothing else.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Thanks for the additional background. During the Obama & Trump years, it really seemed that the Saudis wanted to “take care” of the Iranian threat by fighting the last American (just like Bibi), or the last American & Israeli. The KSA appears to be hedging its bet now.