Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

Petty moves from a petty man.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

I really should read my own blog.

Balloon Juice, where there is always someone who will say you’re doing it wrong.

Hey hey, RFK, how many kids did you kill today?

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

🎶 Those boots were made for mockin’ 🎵

Hot air and ill-informed banter

We still have time to mess this up!

How stupid are these people?

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

You are here: Home / 2024 Activism / Florida jackals — the sea and the sky may hate election day voting

Florida jackals — the sea and the sky may hate election day voting

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Hey, Florida folks:

I don’t necessarily want to raise huge alarm bells or anything, but looking at the GFS and other hurricane models, and the National Hurricane Center’s current Tropical Weather Outlook….

….maybe DEFINITELY try to vote early this week, if you haven’t already. Very definitely.

— Mari Ness, writer of things (@mariness.bsky.social) October 27, 2024 at 4:31 PM

Building on Rose’s post from earlier today, go vote early if you’re a Jackal living in a state that touches the Gulf of Mexico.

Reader Interactions

76Comments

  2. 2.

    Layer8Problem

    “Burn the sky [sic] and boil the sea,

    you can’t take Election Day voting away from me.”

    Oh phooey, I early voted.

  3. 3.

    dmsilev

    Umm, what are we supposed to be looking for? The NHC map has absolutely nothing on it right now, not even “disturbance which might become a storm in a few days” indicators.

  4. 4.

    Dangerman

    Damn but there is an opinion piece up on Rawstory that simply slices and dices Trumpers. Full Ginzu knife treatment. Then tosses underbus. Then the express deboarding like The Good Shepherd. I’d link but on phone.

    ETA: NFLTG from that writer.

  6. 6.

    Harrison Wesley

    @dmsilev: Yeah, AccuWeather (which I don’t find to be particularly accurate) expects tropical storms in November – maybe early November! – but doesn’t have anything brewing at the moment.  I voted a couple of weeks ago, but that’s just because I had my ballot handy.

  7. 7.

    Paul in Jacksonville

    @dmsilev: Not only that, but the 10 day forecast shows nothing unusual for the entire state. Hey, Mari Ness, please link to something valid that supports your statement.

  8. 8.

    Spanky

    For any who may not already have it bookmarked, here is the National Hurricane Center page. An empty map, atm. If there was any kind of disturbance forming in the Atlantic or Caribbean, it would be on here.

  9. 9.

    hueyplong

    I’m skeptical about this mystery storm, but if one magically appeared there or elsewhere, wouldn’t a depressed election day vote generally be a good thing for Democrats, who are more likely to vote early?

  10. 10.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Deposited my ballot at the county elections office a week ago. It’s always good to get it out of the way, for one thing, I can toss the Voter’s Pamphlet into the recycling with a totally clear conscience. “Toss” is kinda not hefty enough a word, as two ballot measures accounted for 60% of the content.

  12. 12.

    dmsilev

    OK, the NHC long-range forecast says this:

    1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
    A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
    southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
    possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
    week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
    or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

    A 40% chance of a tropical depression (not a storm, but just the precursor) over the next week doesn’t really sound like a blaring alarm siren.

    Edit: By all means, vote early. But this doesn’t really seem like a particularly urgent reason why.

  13. 13.

    Spanky

    Ah. This may be it. Via WaPo (don’t judge me. My cancellation hasn’t taken effect yet.)

    Hurricane season is almost over — the Atlantic season technically ends on Nov. 30 — but we’re not at the finish line yet. While November historically accounts for just 6 percent of average Atlantic hurricane activity, a new storm might be brewing. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 40 percent odds that a named storm will form in the western Caribbean within the next week.

  14. 14.

    Joy in FL

    This Floridian also checked the outlook for the tropics. I see nothing threatening weather-wise.

    Spreading vague and fear-inducing (for me, until I checked reliable sources) statements just doesn’t help.

    Vote early, yes, but invoking vague weather warnings doesn’t help.

  15. 15.

    Yarrow

    It’s an area of interest in the SW Caribbean.

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2024For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
    A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
    southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Gradual development is
    possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this
    week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward
    or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40 percent.

  18. 18.

    Mousebumples

    Re WaPo –

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/28/nx-s1-5168416/washington-post-bezos-endorsement-president-cancellations-resignations

    Over 200,000 subscribers flee ‘Washington Post’ after Bezos blocks Harris endorsement

    The Washington Post has been rocked by a tidal wave of cancellations from digital subscribers and a series of resignations from columnists, as the paper grapples with the fallout of owner Jeff Bezos’s decision to block an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris for president.

    More than 200,000 people had canceled their digital subscriptions by midday Monday, according to two people at the paper with knowledge of internal matters. Not all cancellations take effect immediately. Still, the figure represents about 8% of the paper’s paid circulation of 2.5 million subscribers, which includes print as well. The number of cancellations continued to grow Monday afternoon.

    A corporate spokesperson declined to comment, citing The Washington Post Co.’s status as a privately held company.

    “It’s a colossal number,” former Post Executive Editor Marcus Brauchli told NPR.

  19. 19.

    Other MJS

    And if it delays the arrival of properly postmarked mail-ins, count on the Orange Confederacy trying to discard them.

  21. 21.

    Mousebumples

    @Mousebumples:

    https://bsky.app/profile/rincewind.run/post/3l7lujms3xu23

    okay I thought the number of cancellations was going to be big but not EIGHT PERCENT OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS big

    if you’re wondering why other news organizations are shifting the tone of their coverage this may have something to do with it, the affluent liberal audience has reached its breaking point

    also, this is a significantly higher percentage of the subscriber base that actually pays attention – almost certainly a chunk of subscribers don’t know that this happened at all, so what you’re losing here is a lot of the core, active subscriber base that’s actually sharing your stories

  23. 23.

    Shalimar

    @dmsilev: Remember Helene formed in the same relative area and hit 48 hours after it became a hurricane.  It is very possible one forms into a tropical depression Thursday or Friday and hits next Tuesday.  Unlikely, but possible.

  25. 25.

    SatanicPanic

    @Mousebumples: I cancelled mine. I have defended them in the past, but Bezos’ behavior is indefensible here, and I will not subscribe again until the paper finds a better owner.

  26. 26.

    Betty Cracker

    My husband and I mailed in our ballots a while back, and they were received and counted according to the SoE site. That said, I’m not worried about that puff of clouds with a 40% chance of development. Even though schools of minnows are currently swimming in our game room.

  29. 29.

    Doc Sardonic

    A broad area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea in late October, early November is much like eating the coleslaw at KFC. Will you get diarrhea? Likely. Will it turn into salmonella? Possibly. What we in Florida don’t need right now is some Jim Cantore wannabe using the ooga booga, Baba Yaga, hurricane bullshit to get people to vote. There are a lot of shell shocked people on the gulf coast right now trying to deal with cleaning up, and waiting for the county come haul away what’s left of their belongings that are piled at the curb, that sort of shit may have the opposite effect. Was just in South Tampa/Clearwater/St. Pete, in South Tampa the storm surge made it in to Manhattan Avenue, maybe a block or so farther. Sorry, not sorry, a little raw on this.

  32. 32.

    BR

    Something to share with any Latino voters you are talking with:

    Holy sh*t.

    NEW: Trump rally speaker Tony Hinchcliffe’s was set to call Harris a ‘c*nt’ before the campaign intervened and red flagged it.

    Of course, that presumably means they approved the other racial slurs against Puerto Ricans & Latinos…

    What a story from Bulwark.[image or embed]— News Eye (@newseye.bsky.social) October 28, 2024 at 12:48 PM

  33. 33.

    espierce

    West coast of Florida here and I mailed my absentee ballot Monday just before evacuating for “Milton”. They received/counted it about 10 days after mailing.

    LFG Harris-Walz!

    No worries regarding a potential tropical storm as the Gulf was 76° F at 10 this morning when I was out collecting Red Tide water samples for the FWC.

  35. 35.

    Gloria DryGarden

    Is hurricane weather not like the thing in Colorado, where the weather says it’ll be 70, but then that afternoon you find yourself in a blizzard? Doesn’t that stuff change in half a day?

    We never believe our weather reports. Wait an hour, and something entirely different than expected might happen. Ir doesn’t always. But every year, there are oodles of examples.

    Good luck in Florida, with the recovery and repairs, and fitting voting into all the other stuff.

  36. 36.

    Jeffro

    OT but (since I RSVP’d to trump’s MSG hate-fest, in the hopes of screwing up their numbers) – I have continued to receive his text appeals for money.  They land about every 2 hours(!)

    the latest?

    From Trump: THIS TEXT IS NOT FOR EVERYONE

    You’re getting it because I love you, Jeffro.

    Read my memo: sketchyURL.com

    Stop2End

    Totally normal stuff here, folks…NOT

  38. 38.

    catclub

    @Gloria DryGarden: Is hurricane weather not like the thing in Colorado, where the weather says it’ll be 70, but then that afternoon you find yourself in a blizzard?

     

    No.  Hurricanes have long and relatively steady lifetimes.

  41. 41.

    lowtechcyclist

    @trollhattan:

    WaPo has achieved “getting their hair mussed” status, shedding 200k subscribers by today.

    Doubtless, the Bezos response will be to “Find those damn leakers!”

    ETA, with five separate posts it will become One Millyun cancellations.

    The WaPo’s morning email pushes an article with this header:

    The Post Most: Some billionaires, CEOs hedge bets as Trump vows retribution

    Yeah, we noticed.

  43. 43.

    Peale

    @Jeffro: I thought it was Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. So maybe they flagged you as a potential Dem voter they could persuade by the romantic seduction you’re wanting right now.

    It was a normal Tuesday for Jeffro. Too normal. Jeffro was running late and as he turned the corner, he tripped and fell, spilling his coffee on the black patent leather shoes and blue trousers of some fool who wasn’t watching where he was going. Though as the fell, he felt the strong orange hands of a clearly masculine man reach for him to catch him before he fell further. “Clearly this guy knows his way around the gym” he thought.

    As he turned, he found himself staring into the most dreamy set of hazel eyes he ever saw.  He wanted to say “watch the fuck where you’re going, moron.” But he couldn’t. He was stunned. The only thing he could muster was a teary whimpered “Sorry, sir. If I had known it was you, I’d have been more careful.”

    “No need to apologize for the shoes” the presidential candidate gently whispered. I’ve been waiting for you all along….

  45. 45.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Layer8Problem:

    “Burn the sky [sic] and boil the sea,

    you can’t take Election Day voting away from me.”

    Oh phooey, I early voted.

    This fellow Browncoat likes your attitude. :-)

    I’ve got a t-shirt that reads:

    BROWNCOAT

    May have been the losing side.

    Still not convinced it was the wrong one.

    If things don’t go the way we hope, that t-shirt’s gonna get a LOT of use.

  47. 47.

    The Audacity of Krope

    Private ownership is a threat to freedom of the press, just like it’s a threat to most things a society needs to run.

  49. 49.

    Doc Sardonic

    @Joy in FL:

    @Betty Cracker:

    You are welcome. It was surreal driving around over in the Westshore, Sunset and Courtney Campbell. Beautiful houses along Westshore already gutted and waiting for rebuild/renovation clearance or a demo order. Thing people need to understand is we are not done with this yet, folks are going to have several more weeks/months of uncertainty. I my own case I am well inland on the spine of Florida, but we got a lot of flooding because we were already saturated. The water in my backyard is higher than I have seen it 20 years, right now we spend the time watching the oaks and hoping they stay vertical and that will last for months. Next bit of fun will be in a couple of months when the property insurance renewals/cancellations start coming, because thanks to Rick Scott and Puddin Boots malfeasance/neglect we are probably going to have an insurance nuke go off in Florida, that’s going to be fun. However, voting must be done, yes on 3 and 4, because we are gonna need the weed and probably a lot more booze.

  50. 50.

    Betty Cracker

    @WaterGirl: There’s 17 inches of water in the downstairs. The good news is it’s a stilt house, so the living quarters are upstairs. All the important furniture and equipment was moved or jacked up. So far more of a giant inconvenience than a catastrophe. ;-)

  52. 52.

    Velocifowl

    @The Audacity of Krope:

    Our political press started off as private elites publishing to tar and slander their opponents while spreading propaganda.  It hasn’t changed.

    We had a brief moment of sanity with the cold war and a working class press.  With the end of that era it reverted to it’s old form and is dominated by ivy league degree sniffers with deep pockets.

  56. 56.

    Bex

    “Moscow is literally a shit show.  A fountain of sewage erupted like Old Faithful.  The sewage system broke down.”  Saw this on X, don’t know how to link.  I’m sure someone can help.  There are pictures!

  57. 57.

    Fake Irishman

    Hi all:

    A good tropical weather resources is called theeyewall.com. Run by a pair of ex-Houston tv meteorologists, and a companion to Spacecityweather.com, it breaks down all the modeling and how it can go wrong (and right) They think there’s some potential for development, but really push back on the one model that’s showing something scary. It’s like polling: if you see 20 good models with somewhat different reasonable assumptions and methods pointing to Obama +8, you should probably not take the one good model that shows McCain +1 too seriously.

  58. 58.

    Doc Sardonic

    Mildew, Gators and Skeeter’s…..it’s a high price we pay to live in paradise, but most of time worth every bit.

  61. 61.

    JustRuss

    Coworker is in the Coast Guard reserves.  He’s just been activated, will be on hurricane relief duty in Florida until December.

  63. 63.

    The Audacity of Krope

    @Betty Cracker: But they’re the most charming guests we’ve had in ages!

    So you don’t want to create a fishing game to torture them for your amusement. I get it entirely.

  65. 65.

    karen marie

    @BR:   The Individual-1 campaign has an ad (maybe posted in an earlier thread by someone here?) where they repeatedly say “we’re going to call Harris the C word,” leaving the viewer with the clear impression they mean “cunt” but then they pussy out and call her a communist

    Hahaha.  I’m in moderation – I assume for using the C word!  I’m going to leave it in though, because fuck the filter.

  67. 67.

    karen marie

    @Jeffro:   I discovered five desperate, flop-sweat texts from the Trump campaign on my phone yesterday.  I have to assume they’re just texting everybody with a phone in AZ.  I texted “fuck you” back, reported the numbers as spam and blocked them.

  70. 70.

    KrackenJack

    @SatanicPanic: ​
     I was already thinking of canceling my WaPo and Prime subscriptions before this week. Did both. The reason it was on my mind was a WaPo renewal notice. So this will hit their revenue in two weeks.

  72. 72.

    KrackenJack

    @Velocifowl: This.

    For reasons I can’t recall, I’ve seen several biographies of William Randolph Hearst in the past few months. Populist tendencies until FDR snubbed him. Still a propagandist, yellow journal and racist, through and through.

    Also read Wide Awake by Jon Grinspan, which includes a lot about attacks on abolitionist newspapers in the run up to the election of 1860.

    Consolidation means we have few non-plutocrat-owned alternatives and the ones we have attempt to appear neutral.

  73. 73.

    Harrison Wesley

    Shit.  I just read that Republicans are leading Democrats in early/mail-in voting here in FL by 500,000 votes.  Certainly not what I expected.  Absolutely not what I want.  I’ll ask the party folks at the voter-greeting thing tomorrow what’s up.

  75. 75.

    kalakal

    the gulf’s cooled a lot since Milton, much less humid etc. It’s not unusual for late season storms to come up from the Caribbean but even if that’s what happens it probably won’t be a biggie.

  76. 76.

    I gotta get out of this place

    @dmsilev: Scroll down and read the “discussion” section. That’s where the question of a possible future tropical storm is located

Comments are closed.