Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Consistently wrong since 2002

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

Bark louder, little dog.

Roe isn’t about choice, it’s about freedom.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

It is possible to do the right thing without the promise of a cookie.

Celebrate the fucking wins.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Many life forms that would benefit from greater intelligence, sadly, do not have it.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

“That’s what the insurrection act is for!”

Spilling the end game before they can coat it in frankl luntz-approved dogwhistles.

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

How any woman could possibly vote for this smug smarmy piece of misogynistic crap is beyond understanding.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

You are here: Home / Open Threads / Magic 8-ball, fortune tellers, and the folded paper thing

Magic 8-ball, fortune tellers, and the folded paper thing

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Are you looking at polls for information to predict the outcome of the election?

If so, may I recommend a Magic 8-ball instead?

Or perhaps go see a fortune teller?

Or maybe he folded paper thing that girls in grade school make to answer their questions?
Does Bobby like me?  Will I get married?  Will I get asked to the dance?

SERIOUSLY.

The polls cannot tell you what you want to know.

I am not mocking anyone here.  Most of us are on edge.  The one thing I do know is that you will have more peace of mind over the next few days if you accept that we do not know what the outcome will be.

Between conventional wisdom in an unconventional time, thumbs on the scale, refrigerators on the scale, each pollster’s secret sauce, and all the agendas, the polls can’t tell us anything, and neither can the “early voting” info, because that’s based on unconventional wisdom in an unconventional time.  And don’t forget all the wildcards!

We do not know.  No one can know.   It is unknowable.

THE MEDIA DOES NOT KNOW.  But they have an agenda, and they do not have our best interests at heart.

THE LYING LIARS WHO LIE DO NOT KNOW.  They, too, have an agenda, but it is not for our benefit.

I am reminded of the moment when I first understood that the HR person is not there for the benefit of the employees.

The closest anyone can get to knowing would be to see the internal polls, and we don’t have access to those.  Even those are based on assumptions.  Not on some verifiable truth or fact.

So if you’re not looking to make calls, or cure ballots, or take a canvass shift, or donate, then distract yourself.  Dig out your best coping mechanisms and put them to work.

What’s your best bet when you need to stop overthinking somethig?

Reader Interactions

249Comments

  2. 2.

    Spanky

    Despite not having thought of them in 50+ years, I immediately knew what you meant by “the folded paper thing”. Their construction always baffled me until I realized I didn’t really care.

  3. 3.

    Mag

    Taking long walks while listening to audio books that are not political… lately Poirot novels read by Hugh Fraser.

  4. 4.

    gkoutnik

    I keep seeing both “no one knows” and “the campaign must be reacting to their internals,” suggesting that someone knows.  I assume that the internals are 1) secret and 2) much more accurate than those we see.  Is this true?  If so, how?  What do the internal polls do that the – external? – polls don’t?

  5. 5.

    Dangerman

    Dice.

    Pair of 1s? Snake. As in Snake oil salesman.

    Pair of 6’s? Box. As in the Big House. You know that fucker will try something and have more charges come his way.

    7’s? Craps. As in, flush that turd.

  6. 6.

    No One You Know

    I should start a new painting. Paintings are born in hope and curiosity,  and it’s important to not commit to a direction too quickly, to delay the ending until I’ve seen all the possibilities that could be realized.

  7. 7.

    Baud

    I am not mocking anyone here

    I feel mocked.

    @gkoutnik:

    IMHO, the campaigns probably know best, but even that isn’t going to be definitive. And they won’t reveal what they know.

  8. 8.

    WaterGirl

    @gkoutnik:

    The closest anyone can get to knowing would be to see the internal polls, and we don’t have access to those.

    Even those are based on assumptions.  Not on some verifiable truth or fact.

  11. 11.

    HumboldtBlue

    What’s your best bet when you need to stop overthinking something?

    Text Twist 2

    Elsewhere:

    Puerto Ricans in Polk County have joined others throughout the country in blasting a comedian who disparaged the territory Sunday at a campaign rally for former President Donald Trump.

    Locked in a tight showdown with Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, Trump, a Republican, hosted a campaign extravaganza at Madison Square Garden in New York. While the former president was the headliner, media coverage of the spectacle has largely focused on comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, one of nearly 30 speakers who preceded Trump on the stage.

    During his routine, Hinchcliffe said: “I don’t know if you guys know this, but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico.”

    Hinchcliffe also insulted Latinos in general, using a crude sexual reference to suggest that they produce more children than other groups. His act included derogatory mentions of Jewish and Black Americans as well.

    Also, I’m enjoying the hell out of Bluesky.

    It’s always a great day when I can exchange cat pictures with one of my favorite authors, Tom Levenson.

  12. 12.

    Sister Golden Bear

    @gkoutnik: Internals are highly secret, and generally more accurate because campaigns traditionally are willing to spend more than public polls to be more comprehensive.

    But…. they’re still plagued by all the factors confounding modern polling. Fewer and fewer people willing to respond, so pollsters are having to extrapolate more and more. Pollsters having to accurately predict who likely voters will be (aka “theory of the electorate”), and that’s not including things like Dobbs that upset the assumption that current elections will resemble past elections. Plus since polling began, it’s not had a particularly accurate track record since the 1930s. AOC tells how her internal polling predicted a fairly substantial loss in her first election — and instead she won handily.

  13. 13.

    TheOtherHank

    @gkoutnik:

    I assume that the internals are 1) secret and 2) much more accurate than those we see. Is this true? If so, how? What do the internal polls do that the – external? – polls don’t?

    I don’t think they’re more accurate, but they do drive what a campaign does. Which we can see. So if the polls and history say that Team X should win a particular state, but they’re spending money there anyway, we can get an idea of what they’re thinking.

    I don’t think that works that well for Trump’s campaign since they seem to be doing things that his pudding-brain wants to do. e.g., they garbage truck stunt and the MSG rally

  14. 14.

    different-church-lady

    I am reminded of the moment when I first understood that the HR person is not there for the benefit of the employees.

    Modern HR departments are deliberately sadistic.

  15. 15.

    scav

    @Baud: Mmmhphhh, I can see that the internal polling might lack the layer of “for media consumption and propaganda” fiddling, but even they’re stuck with the poor initial data quality of people not responding, let alone responding accurately and then there’s the hairball of estimating likely voters.  (They can at least fiddle with that to get an idea of sensitivity.)  But I’d guess to an uncomfortable degree we’re all flying blind into this.

  17. 17.

    Old Dan and Little Ann

    My wife has been obsessing over polls for over a month and it’s driving me crazy.  She calls her best friend in Michigan every day to discuss the polls.  I can’t fucking wait to vote on Tuesday and get this all over with.  We got this!

  18. 18.

    Suburban Mom

    I think the good guys are going to win.  I have no data to support this, so you guys don’t need to tell me why I’m wrong.  Even if I turn out to be wrong I will have a more relaxing three days before reality kicks me hard.

  21. 21.

    surfk9

    One of the Lincoln project guys, I think Stuart Stevens, when asked about how to tell who’s going to win, said “look for the campaign that’s having a good time”. The Harris campaign exudes joy, the Trump campaign is a non-stop rage machine. That’s how I’m seeing the race.

  22. 22.

    wjca

    @gkoutnik:  keep seeing both “no one knows” and “the campaign must be reacting to their internals,” suggesting that someone knows.

    More accurately, someone thinks they know.  The smarter campaign insiders look at their internal polls and feel like they maybe have a clue about which way things are trending.

  24. 24.

    Andrew Abshier

    I was in Brazil for the last two weeks of October, and stopped checking polls then.  I’ve stayed out of the habit since I got back.    I still follow campaign news but less than I was.  At some point we have to let go, for our own sanity.

  28. 28.

    Steve LaBonne

    Whoever wants to pay attention to polls has no reason to be depressed, because the final swing state polls look quite good for Harris and there are good reasons to think they’re understating her support.

  30. 30.

    MattF

    There’s a particularly insidious bias where analysts correct errors until they get the answer they think is correct and then stop at that point, thereby not correcting any remaining errors. One way to fix it is to flip a coin before deciding to fix any error— but try explaining that to your client… “I may or may not fix every error I make and I won’t tell you about it”.

  31. 31.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Back in 2008, I cast my ballot on the last day of early voting — the Friday before Election Day. It worked out so well 16 years ago that I decided to do the same thing in 2024. I even drove some considerable distance out of my way to go to the same polling location as in 2008! And here I am with my multilingual “I VOTED” sticker on my shirt.

  33. 33.

    gkoutnik

    Thanks – all useful comments on internals.  No secret sauce, maybe more funds invested and no media bias – but still under the influence of the same difficult variables and error mechanisms as all polls.  We shall see!

  34. 34.

    BritinChicago

    Unknowable is exactly right. (At the moment! It will be known.) That’s different from saying, as almost all the commentators do, that it’s very close. I would not be surprised if MVP won by a significant margin in the (stupid, anti-democratic) EC and by a larger victory in the popular vote; I’d be somewhat surprised (and very alarmed) but not shocked if TCFG won in by a fairly significant margin in the EC. (If he wins the popular vote I would be very surprised.)

    If Harris really has a big margin it might be known before I go to bed on Tuesday but I’m not really expecting that. I think for me a better tactic may be to try and get to bed as usual that day (and hope I can sleep) and wake up early on Wednesday—hoping to find good news. But I won’t be unhappy waiting a few days, as long as the result is right.

  40. 40.

    wjca

    @surfk9:  how to tell who’s going to win, said “look for the campaign that’s having a good time”. The Harris campaign exudes joy, the Trump campaign is a non-stop rage machine.

    IIRC, in 2016 Trump seemed to be enjoying himself.  Not least because he was in front of bigger crowds than he personally had seen before.  It was a narcissistic fantasy come true for him.  But since then, the non-stop rage machine has been much in evidence.  And getting worse and worse.

    The main question in my mind is: How big an impact will his negative coattails have?  Judging from the frantic damage control efforts by other Republican candidates after the MSG fiasco, I suspect that I’m not the only one asking that.

  43. 43.

    BellaPea

    I briefly turned on MSNBC while having lunch to get some political coverage, and saw a panel with the odious Andrea Mitchell, the Republican-loving Katy T-ur, and that other boring Kris Jansen woman, going all hot and heavy with a guy in the Wisconsin Republican Party with a big MAGA banner hanging behind him. I didn’t stay for much dialogue–media is disgustingly biased, including unfortunately a channel I used to like.

  44. 44.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Somebody said “Either everything we know about elections and electioneering is wrong, or the polls are, and we already know the polls are broken.”  Since the point there was that the polls are greatly underweighing Harris’s prospects, and the latest polls say Harris’s prospects are pretty damn good, I am feeling confident.  In 2020 I was having stress hysterics.

  45. 45.

    HumboldtBlue

    The Trump campaign is very secure, very confident in victory. That’s why… umm… that’s why they are suing Bucks County, CBS News, UK Labor Party and now, the Washington Post. You can’t make this shit up.

    Loony as this is, these are at least quickly dismissible civil suits. Trump’s supporters have been baying for criminal charges against journalists on this dumb argument that unflattering coverage is an “in-kind campaign contribution.”

    It’s preposterous. But with MAGA judges, who knows.

    Also, too:

    As women outpace men in early turnout, Trump’s challenge to win over female voters comes into focus

  46. 46.

    lee

    Most of us are on edge.

    I’m a little on edge. My wife has to stay distracted or she gets overwhelmed.

    2nd vote for BlueSky. I really like it.

  47. 47.

    TBone

    @TBone: oops window closed!  Phila Museum of Art!  Capital A!

    https://philamuseum.org/collection/object/44513

    Diana is arguably the best-known work of Augustus Saint-Gaudens, who was recognized at the turn of the century as the country’s finest sculptor. When installed in 1893 on the tower of New York’s Madison Square Garden to serve as a weather vane, Diana ruled the highest point in Manhattan. The sculpture’s gilded form caught the sun during the day and was illuminated at night by the city’s first electric floodlights

    Madison Square Garden was demolished in 1925 and the Philadelphia Museum of Art adopted the sculpture in 1932 with support for conservation and shipping from the Fairmount Park Art Association (now the Association for Public Art). Diana has reigned as the goddess of the Museum’s Great Stair Hall ever since.

  48. 48.

    Baud

    If, on Monday, Trump demands access to Obama’s time machine so he can stop the 19th Amendment, then I’ll feel pretty confident about our chances.

  49. 49.

    Gary K

    The best bet is to do something constructive. I just finished a 2-hour shift of phone banking for Sherrod Brown, to Lucas (Toledo) and Stark (Canton) counties. The craziest call was to someone convinced that Liz Cheney is already moving into the White House, and is going to be the next President. “Haven’t you heard? … and I’m not smoking any weed.” The most wrenching call was to someone who asked “Can you get them to stop the bombing of Gaza?” Someone told me she’ll decide on Election Day, WTF? Another said ““I used to be a Democrat but now I’m worried: kids wanting to use litterboxes and all that.” One Dem told me “I think I’m going to discourage my husband from voting.”

  50. 50.

    Villago Delenda Est

    What’s your best bet when you need to stop overthinking something?

    Steak fajitas, rancho beans, and a Cadillac Margarita, blended, with salt on the rim.

  51. 51.

    Splitting Image

    The current estimate is that women are outvoting men in Pennsylvania by a 56-43 margin, and by similar numbers in most of the other states. If that holds up, Harris will be declared the winner early Tuesday night.

    The only question is whether the numbers will narrow because more men are planning to vote on Election Day or if so many women have registered because of Dobbs and all of the Republicans’ other creepiness that the electorate really has shifted that much towards the F column.

    We won’t know the answer to that until all the votes are counted, but at this point I would much rather be in Harris’ shoes than Trump’s.

    Be of good cheer. I think the arc of history is beginning to bend.

  52. 52.

    ema

    I’ve done two things things this week to distract myself:

    1) Voted early. Some early voting anecdata (weekday, mid-morning): ~5 Volunteers and ~3 Voters past years; ~10 Volunteers and ~ 50 – 60 Voters this year. Hopefully the local enthusiasm reflects the mood of the general electorate.

    2) Helped my friend’s 89-year-old mom film a voting video. She wanted to help undecided voters make a decision (didn’t have the heart to tell her that, if they’re undecided at this point, they are probably unreachable). Her determination to do something about it and her optimism were impressive.

    Please share it with an undecided voter if you know any. Who knows, maybe she’s right and I’m wrong and she manages to help someone vote.

  53. 53.

    Urza

    I’ve never understood if the internal polls are more accurate why doesn’t someone, anyone, spend the money to do that kind of polling for the public knowledge?  Not saying it should be a daily thing or even weekly but a couple of those per election, especially in battlegrounds would absolutely be worth alot and it can’t cost more than the ad dollars that would be brought in for having something accurate.  Granted it might chase ad dollars away from other places that pimp the horse race every time but capitalism should absolutely destroy that if anyone bothered to try.

  55. 55.

    jonas

    Please, people. We’re all frightened and horny. But the one thing that is keeping me somewhat grounded the past few weeks is asking: which campaign is staying calm, focusing on the ground game and advancing the ball with methodical confidence, and which one is setting its hair on fire, throwing random hail marys, and generally acting like it’s all coming apart?

    Now Trump has always been coming apart in one way or another for the past 8 years, so it’s a sliding scale. But I’m just not getting “we got this” vibes from that side. At all.

  56. 56.

    Hungry Joe

    Years ago I stopped watching pre-game shows in which pundits — usually former players — opine on who’ll win the game, and why. I figured out that I could just watch the game and find out for real.*

    Same with the election. When I see a horse-race headline I pass the story by. Easy as peasy.

    * Exception: Tennis, when it’s John McEnroe.

  57. 57.

    Layer8Problem

    @Frankensteinbeck:  We have to believe in the polls, otherwise we’re not believing in the polls.  And we can’t have that.  Because polls.

    “It’s an even-money horse race.”  “The pressure is on.”  Yesterday my partner, who I care about immensely, was freaking out about stuff in the NY Times about polls.  I take that badly.

    I think Harris will win.  I’m optimistic and I don’t like being gaslit.

  59. 59.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Splitting Image: Dobbs is the Achilles’ heel of both TCFFG/PAB and the MSM.   Both have been ignoring the impact.  I think that MVP will not just have coattails, but more like the bride’s train at a royal wedding.

  62. 62.

    TBone

    @ema: I adore her! 🤩 Will def be sharing.

    Phyllis knows what she’s talking about and looks like she’ll not put up with any more malarkey!

  63. 63.

    ThatLeftTurnInABQ

    @HumboldtBlue:

    The Trump campaign is very secure, very confident in victory. That’s why… umm… that’s why they are suing … and now, the Washington Post.

    Oh, the poor WaPo – catching it from both sides!

    So, is this sort of like Hitler shitting on the Romanians for doing a terrible job of holding the flank of the Stalingrad salient in late 1942?

  64. 64.

    HumboldtBlue

    A fascinating look at the history of political news in this country.

    Newspapers had been around for centuries by the 1800s, but as American rates of literacy rose, millions of ordinary citizens became daily news junkies. The number of papers jumped from a few publications in 1800 to 4,000 brawling rags by 1860, collectively printing hundreds of millions of pages each year. They ranged from the snarky, immensely popular New York Herald and the blood-drenched true crime reports in the National Police Gazette to the high-minded abolitionism of The Liberator.

    Nearly everyone literate devoured them — from wealthy elites to schoolgirls to enslaved people technically banned from reading. Newspapers published scandals and rumors, riling mobs and sparking frequent attacks on editors — often by other editors. Well into the 20th century, communities were still pulling newspaper presses out of local rivers, having been hurled there by angry mobs.

    Ninety-five percent of American newspapers had explicit political affiliations. Many were directly bankrolled by political parties. There was no concept of journalistic independence and nonpartisanship until the turn of the 20th century.

  65. 65.

    different-church-lady

    @Hungry Joe:

    I figured out that I could just watch the game and find out for real.

    Recently I figured out that I could skip the game and just look at the score the next morning.

  66. 66.

    👻David 🎃Booooooo🎃 Koch💀

    “Magic 8-ball, fortune tellers”

    That’s primitive.

    I use advanced technology like Ouija boards and astrologers

  73. 73.

    VFX Lurker

    I wish in one hand, and I vote/write/donate with the other, and I see which one fills up first.

    I wrote a little over 600 postcards for this election cycle — 200 Postcards to Swing States and 400+ Postcards to Voters. I donated to Balloon-Juice fundraisers, Charles Gaba fundraisers, Postcards to Voters and Pizza to the Polls. I voted three weeks ago.

    I may still donate to Pizza to the Polls, but I’m feeling OK going into next Tuesday.

  76. 76.

    geg6

    @TBone:

    This.

    Just was polled by Emerson.  Very straightforward questions, no push kind of stuff.  We’ll see how that goes.  This would have to be their last poll, I would guess.

    In other news, our outdoor sewer line has to be dug up and replaced.  So there’s that situation to keep me distracted,

  78. 78.

    Baud

    @Suzanne:

    I believed in our voters in 2016. I’ll never make that mistake again.

    (not implying I believe our voters will always fail, just that it’s an option)

  80. 80.

    jackmac

    The polls are just utter bullshit. The so-called credible polls offered by the MSM either feature uncertain methodology or skew to compensate some underrepresented or over-represented populations. Or maybe they are just making not-so educated guesses.

    Then there are the scam polls put out by Republicans to game the system.

    Some pollsters call their results a “snapshot of the electorate” at a given time but build in large margins of error to cover their collective asses.

    Basically, nobody knows. But we will by Tuesday night and I look forward to pollsters stammering and stumbling over answers as to why they were wrong.

  81. 81.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @gkoutnik: Internal polls need to be as accurate as possible.  They can’t have an agenda.  They can still be wrong, but they have no incentive to be so.

  84. 84.

    kindness

    Early on in my corporate career, one of my fellow new hires had one of the Supervisors do something astoundingly stupid with her.  She was outraged and went to HR.  HR immediately 1) informed the Supervisor who did it, 2) informed the middle manager above them and 3) terminated the poor girl.  I felt bad for her, she was right, except the part where she thought HR was there to protect her, no matter what the HR department says publicly.  I learned a valuable corporate lesson that week.

  86. 86.

    TBone

    @geg6: menu for tonight which I have to get started on soon (*exhales, thickly):

    Small ham set up on tart apple slices in a loaf pan, in a Bain-marie of apple juice, and glazed with spicy local apple butter and local honey.

    Cheddar mashed golden potatoes from scratch.

    Steamed fresh baby spinach with butter.

    Best apples are in now, big, rosy, tart, juicy ones.  Mmmmmmmmm

  87. 87.

    lowtechcyclist

    Or perhaps go see a fortune teller?

    I ran into the fortune teller, who said “beware of lightning that might strike”
    I haven’t known peace and quiet for so long, I can’t remember what it’s like
    .
    -Dylan, “Idiot Wind”

  88. 88.

    OId Man Shadow

    I’ve taken a half dose of Xanax this morning to get me back down to normal levels of stress and dysfunction.

  89. 89.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Sister Golden Bear: Yeah, in 2022 I helped canvass (serving as the chauffeur for two friends doing the actual canvassing) in CA-27 and the field staffers said they were very confident based on their internals.  We lost that district to MAGA-sshole Mike Garcia, ugh.  Tomorrow I’ll be there canvassing.

  93. 93.

    Steve LaBonne

    Good lord Campos is innumerate. He thinks the single most probable outcome is Harris winning all 3 blue wall states and the NE blue dot while losing all 4 of the southern tier swing states. But the latter are all coin flips if you believe the polls, so Trump sweeping them is actually a rather low probability event. More probable than 1/16 because of correlation, but clearly pretty low.

  94. 94.

    lee

    Don’t forget that there are some (hopefully most) men are going to vote for Harris because of Dobbs as well. I know polling doesn’t always indicate that.

  98. 98.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    If so, may I recommend a Magic 8-ball instead?

    For the heck of it, I visited the online Magic 8 Ball and asked if Kamala would win. The answer was ‘Yes’. So there.

  100. 100.

    hueyplong

    One reason for confidence might be that literally no one will care what James Comey says at the last minute this time.

  105. 105.

    eclare

    @geg6:

    Oh gawd, I had to do that about six months after I bought my house.  Because of the plumbing in my basement, my driveway, a big tree, it was a major PITA.  And then I had to get the front yard resodded.

    Good luck.  Ugh.

  106. 106.

    catothedog

    I am assuming Harris will win.   I am pessimistic on the outcome of the election even if Harris wins

    The rightwing plan (2025) is to make future elections irrelevant.  Like Orban’s illiberal democracy  in Hungary.

    The  Supreme Court has been  chipping away at voting rights slowly, and now they have no qualms  to destroy whatever remains. States will be give a free hand to gerrymander.  They will then  go back to election of US Senators by state legislatures, thereby locking in rightwing rule for ever.

    The net result will be an election system that allows the minority to rule, which cannot be reformed.  To reform the system you have to get into power, and the majority will never be able to ever gain the power to change anything.

    Look at the US Senate now, and imagine a governing structure many times worse.

    Harris will not be able to fix this even if she gets into power, and gets a supporting House and Senate. The rightwing thugs on the Court will rule everything that they do to reform voting rights illegal or unconstitutional.

    If Harris wins and if she  does not reform the Court, she will be just a speed bump on the road to minority rule.

    Without stacking the Court as a first step, there is no viable path forward.

    The rightwing elite thugs are engaged in a war against the people. By the time the naive people realize that they have been taken for a ride,  they will be trapped in a system that cannot be reformed.

  107. 107.

    👻David 🎃Booooooo🎃 Koch💀

    Here’s where the candidates are today:

    Where’s Donald Trump? In Warren, Michigan, for a campaign rally at 4:30 p.m. ET. Then he will travel to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for a campaign rally at 8 p.m. CT.

    Where’s JD Vance? In Portage, Michigan at 1 p.m. ET for a campaign rally. Then he will travel to Selma, North Carolina for another rally at 5 p.m. ET.

    Where’s Kamala Harris? In the Appleton, Wisconsin, area at approximately 6 p.m. CT for a campaign event. Then she will travel to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for a campaign rally at 9 p.m. CT with performances by GloRilla, Flo Milli, MC Lyte, The Isley Brothers, DJ GEMINI GILLY and remarks by Cardi B.

    Where’s Tim Walz? In Detroit, Michigan, to deliver remarks at a campaign event at 12:45 p.m. ET. Then he will travel to Flint, Michigan, for a campaign rally at 3:30 p.m. ET. After, he will travel to Traverse City, Michigan, for another campaign rally at 7:25 p.m. ET.

  108. 108.

    dm

    @Urza: the Pod Save America Crooked Media guys have a podcast called Pollercoaster.

    The host explained that the campaigns do a lot of extra stuff that commercial pollsters can’t afford to do, like phone bank, knock on doors. On top of that, they know who has voted early, and if they have a canvassing contact with that person, they know how they voted.

    They can feed what they know into demographic models, and, since they’ve talked to so many people, they have a smaller margin of error. And since they know who has voted and who of their likely supporters have not, they can spend time and effort turning the “have not voted” into “have voted”.

  110. 110.

    A Ghost to Most

    Rule 1: Don’t panic.

    Rule 2: Don’t make things worse.

    Rule 3: Where’s my bowl?

  111. 111.

    👻David 🎃Booooooo🎃 Koch💀

    LAS VEGAS — (CNN) Jennifer Lopez, campaigning with Kamala Harris on Thursday in Nevada, said Donald Trump’s campaign had offended “every Latino in this country” with his Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden, where a comedian mocked Puerto Rico.

    ***
    “At Madison Square Garden, he reminded us who he really is and how he really feels,” Lopez said of Trump. “It wasn’t just Puerto Ricans who were offended that day, OK? It was every Latino in this country, it was humanity and anyone of decent character.”

    At one point, she fought back tears.

    “You know what? We should be emotional. We should be upset. We should be scared and outraged. We should. Our pain matters. We matter,” Lopez said.

    What. A. Woman. It was a hellva speech (video).

  113. 113.

    TBone

    @geg6: I just made a canvasser’s day, I am still in my Kamala cat lady costume and he also loved Gritty on the front lawn.  I told him about the men going out of their way to say woo hoo! in Walmart yesterday

    🩷🖤😻

  116. 116.

    hitchhiker

    Seconding whoever suggested listening to history books. I have lots to recommend if anybody wants them — the value is in being able to place yourself into a space where the outcome is known to you. I really hate uncertainty, to the point that I’ll usually skip the actual game and watch the highlights later, or jump to the end of the book to make sure the character I’m rooting for is still alive at the end.

    This outcome isn’t knowable, and yet I’m fairly sure that women are going to run the table here. If that doesn’t happen, well …. then we’ll have a lot more uncertainty, and I will listen to a shit-ton more history books.

    In the meantime, my grand-twins who were born during the Jan 6 2021 festivities are looking forward to being FOUR. This morning they informed me that when they are teenagers I will be really, really old.

    Truth, kids.

  120. 120.

    Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony

    The most motivated, enthusiastic voters vote early. I am glad we have that on our side. The reluctant voters and the undecided will vote on election day, as well as the people who couldn’t fit it in early. Hopefully, the reluctant Trump voters have ‘something come up’ on the way to the polls and never get to it.

  121. 121.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @ema:

    That is a wonderful video!! Phyllis is perfect, and although there are no undecided voters in my circle, I know plenty of friends who will admire her as much I do, so I’m going to do my part to share. Congratulations to you for helping to make it happen!

    (Phyllis needs her own podcast or something. I don’t want this to be the only time in my life I hear from her.)

  124. 124.

    BC in Illinois

    @Hungry Joe:

    Years ago I stopped watching pre-game shows in which pundits — usually former players — opine on who’ll win the game, and why. I figured out that I could just watch the game and find out for real.

    What I learned, back in the last century, was to ignore the comments of the likes of Howard Cosell, who had the standard comment of “They said he was too small/slow/etc to make it in the NFL, but . . .”

    He could say this about any first-round draft pick.  “THEY” (never identified) said something, but Howard Cosell knew better.

    So it is today.

    “They” are saying that Harris-Walz can never . . . etc.

    But some expert knows better.

  125. 125.

    Memory Pallas

    It’s almost off topic at this point, given the way the thread has gone, but where I grew up we called the folded paper thing a “cootie catcher.”

  128. 128.

    West of the Rockies

    Jumping in without looking at comments…

    I find Simon Rosenberg reassuring and enlightening.

  130. 130.

    Peale

    On thing I will not miss, win or lose, is receiving 10-15 text today about 800% matches and how we’re losing and if I just donated right now Trump would never recover.

  132. 132.

    brendancalling

    I’m canvassing this weekend.

    When I need to stop thinking about something, a nice bong hit is often helpful. Naps are also good. And of course, playing music, which I’ve been doing a lot more lately: metal band practice Tuesday, open mic Wednesday, country Band practice on Thursday (w/a monthly gig, if you’re in Philly see us tonight 8-10 at Philly Brewing Co), and Indy rock band practice Saturdays.

  137. 137.

    Gary K

    @Steve LaBonne: Read Campos more carefully. He explicitly says, “I’m not saying this outcome is likely in absolute terms, I’m semi-guessing that it’s more likely than any other single combination of states.”

  139. 139.

    kwAwk

    @dlwchico: I agree that we have to work on the attitudes of these white guys.  100%.

    But it’s okay to say black guys might owe a little bit to the rest of us too.   Donald Trump would have given Furgeson, Missouri the Tulsa treatment if a lot of us white folk hadn’t been standing there on their side.

    George Floyd’s killers probably would have gotten away with it if it wasn’t the white folks who were willing to say no, this will not stand.

  140. 140.

    HumboldtBlue

    The city of Beverly Hills has agreed to train its employees on abortion clinic protections after local officials interfered with the opening of an abortion clinic in “blatant” violation of state law, according to a proposed settlement to be unveiled Thursday by California Attorney General Rob Bonta.

    Bonta’s office said the city’s then-mayor, city attorney, and city manager pressured DuPont Clinic’s landlord last spring to cancel the lease and that city officials also delayed permits to the clinic. They went so far as to warn the building owner that it could be liable for bomb threats and shootings at the medical office building in the wealthy city’s business district.

    The Washington, D.C.-based reproductive health provider is one of a handful of clinics nationwide that advertise abortions past 28 weeks of gestation. It had secured a lease and begun preparations to open a second U.S. location in Beverly Hills.

    Concerned about potential anti-abortion protests and negative media coverage, city officials “engaged in a pressure campaign under the guise of public safety,” according to Bonta’s complaint. The actions “blatantly violated” state law, Bonta said in the complaint. It’s the state’s first action under the voter-passed initiative known as Proposition 1, which enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution.

    “It’s a stark reminder that there are efforts right here in California to undermine reproductive freedom,” Bonta said in an interview with KFF Health News ahead of the announcement. “These are city officials who took an oath to uphold the state constitution and state law, and they did the opposite.”

  141. 141.

    Steve LaBonne

    @Gary K: But he’s wrong about that. It’s pretty improbable that Harris will win all 3 blue wall states and lose all 4 southern tier states. There are more probable configurations like 3+1 or 2+1 (again if one takes the polls at face value).

  145. 145.

    Sxjames

    What do I do distract from pressure and uncertainty?

    Housework

    Yep, the kitchen floor will be very clean this weekend:)

  148. 148.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @kwAwk: It’s true.  We white men are the real heroes of the Civil Rights struggle.  I mean my ancestors didn’t come here in the 1600s and kill off a bunch of indigenous people so that johnny come latelys could come here and treat other people as lesser.  Am I right?

  153. 153.

    catclub

    What happens when you search today for ‘trump epstein tapes’? A good many hits from today!
    The new republic, daily beast, newsweek, AP news, yahoo news.
    It might grow.
    Nothing at wapo or CNN, yet, apparently.

  154. 154.

    brendancalling

    @Steve LaBonne: I’ve taken a break from pretty much everything Campos and Loomis write at LGM until the election is over (with the exception of the “Graves” series). Cheryl, Farley, and Lemiux I still read. I’ve also stopped commenting there until it’s all done. Smart blog, and still a daily visit, but Loomis and Campos do the doom thing too much for me at this time.

    Im no Pollyanna, and won’t read “everything is great” blogs either, but if I’m gonna pound pavement every weekend for the Dems, I need some kind of hope.

  155. 155.

    catclub

    @Steve LaBonne: Why isn’t he obeying his boss Dick Cheney like he used to?

     

    Actually he quit obeying him over bombing Iran. One thing he did that I praise him for. IN 2008 when Bush approval was at about 15%  Cheney was at 9 or 11%.

  157. 157.

    kwAwk

    @Omnes Omnibus: A hell of a lot more white guys died in the civil war that ended slavery than black guys did.   The guys in the National Guard who were holding the guns and opened up schools in the south to black folks were generally white too.  Along with the President who sent them there.

    Go watch Selma.  Black folks didn’t get across that bridge until MLK called in the white folks.

    It’s always been a partnership man.

  163. 163.

    ArchTeryx

    @WaterGirl: Internal polls can be LESS accurate because they tend to be biased for the candidate doing the polling. There’s always a partisan lean, IIRC, with internal polls. So if your internal polls show you losing this close to the election, you tend to get antsy in a big hurry.

  168. 168.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @kwAwk: Well, yeah, to be fair, my ancestors weren’t just killing indigenous people.  The English ones were killing the French and the French were killing the English.  So I guess you have a point.

    More seriously, thank you for your service as a noble white man without whom no one would be free.

  172. 172.

    narya

    Let’s see: making dinner (salmon marinating in soy, galangal, lemongrass, toasted sesame oil, brown sugar, some kind of green I puréed and froze; wild rice; spinach and butternut squash cubes), then a walk for some dessert beers and a walk home. Watching non-political stuff for the next three days as much as possible.

  176. 176.

    artem1s

    The closest anyone can get to knowing would be to see the internal polls, and we don’t have access to those. Even those are based on assumptions. Not on some verifiable truth or fact.

    Not fact, but we can see body language. I distinctly remember W’s smug, disdainful posture the night of the election in 2000. It was in stark contrast to the election map when the last polls closed. All the major networks had all called FL for Gore. Fox didn’t call FL for W until after 2AM the next day. Most of the country went to bed thinking Gore was going to be president. That asshole looked like he knew something we didn’t know.
    I also remember watching the Edward’s Cheney debate (also in Cleveland). Cheney told one blatant lie after another about Edwards Senate performance. Butter wouldn’t melt in that liars mouth. I watched the confidence completely melt out of Edwards body. Same when Biden shredded Paul ‘Malarkey’ Ryan on the debate stage in 2012.
    In 2004 Kerry held an election night rally in Cleveland. It was well after 11 when he finally arrived. The minute he walked out on the stage I could tell. His body language was not the same as it was when he came to Cleveland at the beginning of the campaign. It didn’t scream ‘loser’. It was more like weariness. But it wasn’t good.
    It’s hard to hide self doubt. And it’s equally hard to make bravado look like confidence. And you can’t fake joy. Trying to fake having fun and humor – we all know what that looks like – weird and creepy.
    At no time has Harris given any tell that would make me believe she wasn’t completely confident of what their internal polling is telling them. Walz has been more cautiously optimistic in his demeanor. Bur he’s also had a couple of instances where he has made forceful statements about the outcome that are clearly not bravado.
    Campaign managers don’t want to waste time or money in blood red states they have no hope of winning. Harris has no history of wasting her time on cosplaying POTUS. This campaign hasn’t exhibited any ‘bad’ body language that I’ve seen. I have a hard time believing she would have agreed to the rally in DC just to tick it off her bucket list.
    Contrast that to TCF who has repeatedly cancelled events where he thought he might get asked hard questions or be booed at. And where the hell is Vance? It’s like he dropped off the face of the earth. That’s not the behavior of a VP who thinks he’s going to be spending the next 4 years casting tie winning votes and presiding over the Senate. TCF has lost his mojo from 2016. Even in 2020 he was still enjoying being a creepy racists prick. But now, his body language is screaming loser. And his followers are now recoiling from the weird creepy dude who is promising to ‘take care of us’ even if we don’t want him to.

  177. 177.

    Dave

    @Gary K: To be fair I want Harris to dominate and have impressive coat tails for a great many reasons but somewhere around number 512 on the list would be to see how fast LGM can go from celebratory relief (genuine other than when Loomis trolls his readers I don’t think they post in bad faith) to “and this is why that outcome is still sufficiently inadequate that it might as well have been a loss”.

  178. 178.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @catclub: I am going to finish bingeing The Diplomat, and then I am going back to it and Nigella Lawson videos.  I am sticking to nice, fluffy stuff until the election.

  179. 179.

    Montanareddog

    @Raven: I am kind of glad that Shrub has kept out of it. He was always a milquetoast who was only popular until he fucked up. He is despised by both sides now. In the current environment, an endorsement of MVP would probably be counter-productive.

  185. 185.

    Dave

    @Montanareddog: Yep the best judgment he has ever shown is the degree he ninjaed (why does that make it by the spellcheck?) his way out of the public conscious in his post presidency and had continued to keep a low profile.

    That and declining to attack Iran while we were stuck in two pointless counterproductive conflicts.

  186. 186.

    Montanareddog

    @kwAwk: I think every Black person in America who wasn’t institutionalised by slavery was an abolitionist so I question your premise about white abolitionists numerical superiority.

  187. 187.

    Betty Cracker

    @WaterGirl: We binge-watched the entire new season of The Diplomat in two days! (Just 6 episodes this time.) It was good! Allison Janney is in the final two episodes. Love her.

  188. 188.

    kwAwk

    @Omnes Omnibus: In the military you would have what is described as the red mist.   When you see my name you’re just overcome with anger and see red and lose all rationality.

    To deny that white people had a role in the ending of slavery is to disparage the rightful pride that the white people who ran the underground railroad have in their legacy.

    You’re denying the rightful place of Harry Truman who stood up to the south and desegregated the US Military.  And Lyndon Johnson who signed the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act.

    It’s like just get over yourself.

  189. 189.

    zhena gogolia

    @Omnes Omnibus: I’m sort of lost on The Diplomat. (We’re halfway through the first episode of season 2.) But I don’t want to invest in watching the first season again to remind myself what the hell is happening.

  197. 197.

    Montanareddog

    @kwAwk: And how many of those white people were actual abolitionists rather than firm supporters of chattel slavery, or simply acquiescent to the status quo?

    The Civil War was primarily about maintaining the Union, not freeing the slaves.

  198. 198.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @kwAwk: I already thanked you.  What more do you want?   I guess if we are throwing old military clichés around, I should go with, “Do you want a medal or a chest to pin it on?”

  199. 199.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @Montanareddog: I would guess that my ancestors who fought in the Civil War on the Union side had racial views that I would not be particularly happy to know about.

  200. 200.

    Geminid

    @Dave: When Harris wins there’s gonna be a lot of people explaining how we haven’t won even though we won. It’s starting already. Eeyores are gonna Eeyore.

  201. 201.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Hungry Joe: ​
     

    Years ago I stopped watching pre-game shows in which pundits — usually former players — opine on who’ll win the game, and why. I figured out that I could just watch the game and find out for real.*

    Hey, my crystal ball’s so good, I can tell you the score of a game before it even starts.

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    0 – 0, of course. Duh!

  203. 203.

    WaterGirl

    @Betty Cracker: Oh, no, only 6 episodes?

    Does it appear to come to an end, or does it seem like there could be another season after this?

    edit: Oh, I love her, too!

    edit 2:  Bad Sisters in less than 2 weeks!

  204. 204.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @Baud:

    I believed in our voters in 2016. I’ll never make that mistake again.

    I did too and I might never get all the way over it. Kind of like the 1997 and 2016 World Series.

  205. 205.

    Aziz, light!

    The Washington Post thinks I want to read a column by George Will entitled Voters face the worst presidential choice in U.S. history.

    I constructively didn’t.

  206. 206.

    West of the Rockies

    @Suzanne:

    I wonder if somewhere deep down in his wee brain and heart, he knows Trump will lose and is no longer morally defensible.

  207. 207.

    Chris Johnson

    As far as 2016, what the bad guys were doing was exploiting laziness, the uncertainty of what this Trump character would actually mean, and the complacency of the Clinton campaign (which knew what Trump was, but didn’t think his shit would work). I was in NH. Clinton wasn’t campaigning in every town. She skipped everything rural and blanketed anything like a ‘city’.

    As if that’s happening, this time around. ALL that is reversed. Plus, all the Nazis are infiltrated with Feds and know it, and if they go to jail Trump won’t lift a finger to help them. Hell, some of their people (ahem Epstein, who had insider access to the White House) went to jail and DIED there.

    Best thing a Nazi can do at this stage is rip off Elon Musk, pump their fists halfheartedly so their own people don’t attack them, and then HIDE.

    This is not, not, not 2016. It’s kind of the opposite.

    I trust that our people will be careful and attentive to the Nazis turning to the terrorism they were always meant to do, after the election. There’s sure not 50% of them but it doesn’t take 50% of them to give us troubles, and that’s gonna be their legacy. A legacy of shame.

  209. 209.

    Chris Johnson

    @Aziz, light!: Yeah, they are. His name’s Donald. And they’re recoiling in disgust and horror, for a second time, except with way more disgust and horror than in 2020.

  210. 210.

    Ceci n est pas mon nym

    We’ve talked about assembling enough entertainment to distract us and not watch the election returns.

    But I think we both know that we won’t be able to focus, and we’re both going to be obsessively checking our phones for updates.

    On the other hand, we had a successful couple of non-political hours last night watching “Hocus Pocus”. Maybe it’s just a question of finding the right silly movies. Or stand-up comedy or something.

  211. 211.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Geminid:

    When Harris wins there’s gonna be a lot of people explaining how we haven’t won even though we won. It’s starting already. Eeyores are gonna Eeyore.

    Eh, fuckem.  Keeping TFG out of the White House will be a big win all by itself.  Even if we don’t hold the Senate or retake the House.  But with any luck, we’ll do both of those too.

  212. 212.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … GovExec.com:

    Federal employees donated at least $4.2 million to the major candidates for presidents in 2024, with nearly 84% of that total going to Vice President Kamala Harris.

    […]

    The Education Department had the most one-sided donation breakdown: employees there gave more than $25,000 to Harris and did not make a single donation to Trump, according to FEC records. That was followed by the Environmental Protection Agency, with 99% of donations going to the vice president, the Energy Department at 97%, the Commerce Department at 96% and the State Department at 94%.

    […]

    (Emphasis added.)

    I’m shocked, shocked,

    Forward!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  213. 213.

    Betty Cracker

    @WaterGirl: Definitely a season 3 in the works for The Diplomat! I am so looking forward to Bad Sisters! I only wish it were available as a distraction from the goddamn election, but better late than never.

  216. 216.

    lowtechcyclist

    @Aziz, light!:

    The Washington Post thinks I want to read a column by George Will entitled Voters face the worst presidential choice in U.S. history.

    Haven’t they retired him yet?  He’s had nothing worthwhile to say in decades.

  219. 219.

    Fake Irishman

    @Steve LaBonne:

    agreed.

    (and I think this is why Kay has been pretty cheerful over the last couple of weeks)

    Polls are a data tool. They are not a complete picture, but they have uses. We need to find a happy medium between hanging on every poll and discarding them completely. If we go too far in either direction we grant people deploying polls in bad faith a measure of power over our information environment.

    But yes: action is the remedy for fretting. Thanks to all those who have turned this place into a space for that. For me, it’s  provided some interesting outlets for my cash over the last two cycles I wouldn’t have otherwise known about. With two small kids, I don’t have much time to volunteer, but I’ve been blessed my career has advanced and left me with other ways to pitch in.

  221. 221.

    Kayla Rudbek

    @Another Scott: and yet that idiot Andrei Iancu (former USPTO director) endorsed Trump (who appointed him). I read IP Watchdog to track what the business Republicans want with respect to intellectual property, but oh god it is so irritating at times. Weirdly enough the comments on IP Watchdog are less irritating than the comments on Patently-O (rival patent blog; I speculate that Patently-O finally went to a paid subscription model in part to shut down some of that nonsense).

  223. 223.

    WaterGirl

    @Betty Cracker: Glad to hear about Season 3, and happy to be forewarned that it’s only 6 episodes.

    I would have assumed 8 or 10 ad then wondered what the hell happened at the end of #6 when it would have been abruptly over.

  227. 227.

    Melancholy Jaques

    @Fake Irishman:

    A few years back someone talking to Hargrove about ’97 asked, “How do you get over a thing like that?” Hargrove told him, “As soon as I find out I’ll let you know.”

  228. 228.

    Layer8Problem

    @WaterGirl:   It was this:

    Omnes Omnibus:  People, I am begging you. Stop doomscrolling. Stop looking at the polls. Stop preemptively condemning your fellow citizens. Do something positive. For the election, for yourself, for your house, for other people. Volunteer, donate, go for a walk, have drink, have a cup of tea, eat an edible. Wrestle your dog. Confuse your cat. Have sport sex. Just stop with the shit. Okay?

    I mean who the hell could object to that? Ok, maybe Goku.

  229. 229.

    UncleEbeneezer

    @Chris Johnson: Also, people are much more aware of disinformation attempts in a way that we weren’t in 2016.  Aside from the whole “Biden’s old!” bullshit, our coalition has been much better about not taking the bait intended to diminish our enthusiasm.

  230. 230.

    gwangung

    @kwAwk: No. YOU get over yourself.

    You centered white people on this issue and absolutely erased the role of black people, both free and salve.

    That’s out and out racist.

    I have no time for that shit.

  231. 231.

    TF79

    Modeling error has replaced sampling error has the fundamental challenge of polling, and it’s simply solved by getting more N

  244. 244.

    weasel

    @Steve LaBonne: ​
     I sorta just think he was working for the headline and his desire to highlight how ludicrous the EC makes our elections. I agree that things will all swing one way or the other in almost any circumstance, but it could really come down to something as stupid as that dude digging in his heels in Nebraska (in his own self interest, I might add, nothing wrong with that).

  249. 249.

    Gvg

    @Raven: I have been wondering if Bush has been wondering if endorsing Harris would help or hurt Harris. He ended up being kind of unpopular with both parties. His wars were stupid and bloody and expensive and no matter how much the Republicans wouldn’t let go, they also didn’t celebrate those wars. It was sheer stubbornness that made them stay and not admit it was a mistake. And then Bush wanted to reform immigration and make a pathway to citizenship plus cut SS which is spite of the leadership always blathering about, the real voters always panic about when it comes up. They have been glad he went away. I really don’t know if it will help if he speaks up. I think even Cheney is still more accepted than he is. So if he does speak up, it is likely going to be a sort of chaos explosion of unpredictable arguments distracting from Kamala IMO.

    If Bush spoke up with a Bunch of other big shot GOP flanking him all saying it too with them in the same room with him, it might make an impression, but not with him having been isolated and unheard from for years now.

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