All the best people!
So Deb Fisher, who currently holds a Senate seat in Nebraska, puts out an ad about how great a place Nebraska is to raise a family, with lovely wholesome, happy footage of Nebraska. I mean, footage of Vermont and other parts of New England.
Vote. Her. Out. Kick her reliable Republican vote out of the Senate.
And let’s put a pro-choice and pro-labor guy in her place.
Someone definitely looked up “NE small town” and got a New England town and not a Nebraska town oh my god https://t.co/4CZqkl7qoj
— Conor Rogers (@conorjrogers) October 31, 2024
The other side just dropped 3 million dollars for the Deb Fisher, and Dan Osborn isn’t accepting funds from either party, so the Democratic party can’t respond. But we can!
I’ve added the Dan Osborn thermometer back in the sidebar, so there are now two options for donating if you are so inclined. Either thermometer can potentially have an impact on a key Senate seat.
Open thread.
brantl
There are certain advantages to having an opponent’s whole staff, that isn’t remotely self-aware.
RaflW
I had to check Mme. Vermont’s ad claims. I guess she was in the 19 not-totally-insane Republican senators on the infrastructure bill. But so what? Get her outta there! Chucked in 50 for Dan for good luck (and door knocks).
WaterGirl
@brantl: They are as fake as their fake ads and pretend families!
WaterGirl
For those who watch, Dan Osborn will be on MSNBC in a few minutes.
WaterGirl
@RaflW: Deb Fisher (R) is all in on women as livestock. That and here being a reliable Republican vote is all I need to know.
edit: would breeding vessels be a better word choice?
Old School
Nebraska is a great place to raise families. So is Vermont and New England.
As long as it isn’t Puerto Rico, it’s fine.
Old School
Bupalos
If you told me Trump won but I could have 1 surprise win out of this cycle, it would be this race. Cruz would be emotionally sweeter but I think somewhat less politically meaningful.
cmorenc
Regarding those Fox commentators lamenting about how a husband and wife voting differently amounts to marital infidelity, the obvious response is: “if you wife decides to vote for Harris (or Osborne), isn’t it infidelity if you then vote for Trump (or Fisher)?” Why is it that you get to decide what her vote is going to be, and not her deciding what your vote is going to be? There’s no way for them to answer that without a blatantly misogynistic answer of “man’s the boss over women”.
WaterGirl
@Old School:
Just to be clear, I’m not even remotely suggesting that it’s not.
But to not know that you’re using video from New England and not Nebraska is not a good sign.
TaMara
Thanks, I just shared the local news segment on this debacle on my FB page, which is full of NE relatives. Not sure it will make a difference, but at least they’ll know they are voting for a clown show.
Bupalos
@cmorenc: we’ll, we see that as a gotcha. Many of them see that as just a good extension of their point.
Chet Murthy
@WaterGirl: I read @Old School: ‘s comment as a sly joke (“As long as it isn’t Puerto Rico, it’s fine”).
WaterGirl
@TaMara: So that’s getting some play on TV? If so, yay!
TaMara
@WaterGirl: Yes, looks like all the local channels picked it up.
Old School
@WaterGirl:
Didn’t think you were.
I seem to recall there’s been a rash of that. The RNC used Ho Chi Minh City to promote the convention in Milwaukee. I know I’m forgetting another time or three.
It’s tough to get good help.
Chet Murthy
@Old School: Georgia (the country) instead of Georgia (the state).
(Nazi) Wehrmacht photos instead of American soldiers.
Russky planes instead of American ones.
I’m sure there are lots of others, but those come to mind instantly.
TaMara
Guys,
I just clicked on Twitter and these are the top trending stories:
Trump threatens Liz Cheney
Epstein tapes about relationship with Trump drop (if true, juicy)
Halloween Parade depicts Harris in slave chains being pulled by a truck
And drumroll please: Tucker Carlson says he was attacked by a demon (I am not kidding)
There is not enough coffee, liquor, chocolate or potato chips for this timeline. I’m going to go walk the dogs and pretend this is all a simulation.
cmorenc
@TaMara:
Was it a demon sheep?
John S.
@TaMara:
Earth-666 never fails to disappoint.
Kay
Another young woman dead due to Dobbs:
This is perfecty okay in half the United States now – women are denied best practices medical care due to religious edicts. The Dobbs death toll is now triple digits and that’s “reported” – as you all know mainstream media refuses to cover the aftermath of Dobbs – they’re too frightened of Republicans to assign reporters and resources to it.
This puts the United States behind all but three countries on basic human rights for women. We have LURCHED backward on womens rights. We now just kill them.
Kay
Why should I pay for media if they are too frightened to cover the deaths of women due to Dobbs?
Why would I pay for this cowardly garbage they churn out?
It’s a market failure. I cannot get quality mainstream for-profit news. It doesn’t exist. The best available is Right wing junk.
They’re not saving their industry by kowtowing to the Right wing. They’re killing it. The product they sell is worthless now.
dc
@Kay:
These doctors, nurses, administrators and lawyers now know the answer to what they would have been doing in the 1930s in Germany.
Ken
In the spirit of this XKCD, “Look, I know involuntary committal was abused by families and courts, and lobotomies are a barbaric technique with no benefit to the patient, and….”
Anoniminous
For my own amusement I ran some numbers last night on white women voters.
White women are 30.5% of the population, 60.3% of US women. In 2020 they broke 55% for Trump, 44% Biden. Recent polling – so consider the source – Trump is now getting 46% to Harris’ 44% of support from women. In 2020 women were 52% of the vote.
ASSUMPTION: white women votes match their percentage of all women: 60.3%
There were 155,507,407 total votes in 2020. 52% of that is 80,863,887. 60.3% of that is 48,760,924. 55% of that gives us Trump’s estimated white woman vote of 26,818,508 or 36% of Trump’s total 2020 vote. (Meaning white women supported Trump at ~6% greater than their percentage of total population in 2020.)
ASSUMPTION: the number of white women voting will remain at 60.3% of all women voters in 2024. That’s almost certainly wrong but it gives a basis to continue the estimate.
Using the above numbers recent polling figures white woman support for Trump drops to 22,430,025, and I assign the 4,388,482 lost voters to Harris. Giving an estimated national vote result of:
Harris: 85,671,983 (55%)
Trump: 69,835,492 (45%)
Those are landslide numbers.
This analysis only indicative. What it does is illustrates a reason behind the recent sexism and misogyny from the Trump campaign and their toadies, lackeys, and lickspittels in the various Infotainment Mediums.
Anoniminous
@Kay:
And it WILL CONTINUE unless we have a Democratic House, Senate, and President for the next four years. Women need to vote like their life depends on it …
Because it does
Mousebumples
Last night, on bsky, I asked Dan Shafer (of the Recombobulation Area) if he had any info on polling for the 2023 SCOWIS race.
The final result was the liberal candidate winning by *11%* in Wisconsin. Thanks to Juicers for fundraising and postcarding for now Justice Protasewicz! One of the key points of her campaign was abortion.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. I don’t think pollsters are capturing female opinion or female rage.
I’m going to find at least 1 canvassing shift this weekend. Let’s do the work and run up the fucking score.
Jackie
GOTV on porn sites! I’m only posting the relevant blurbs – it’s a great read:
I applaud their ingenuity!!!
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@TaMara:
How is this news? Trump supporters are always fighting with each other.
Geo Wilcox
@WaterGirl: Axlotl tanks is more like it.
kindness
If Dan Osborne wins it seems we’ll have another Manchin/Sinema in our midst. Still better than a hard core Republican but I was really hoping to have a Senate without the drama that Manchinema brought us.
Mousebumples
@kindness: I’m sure he’ll be moderate or even conservative on some issues, but hopefully more predictable and upfront about what he wants or needs to vote in favor.
Geo Wilcox
@cmorenc: He sleeps with his wife and dogs. It was his dogs who scratched him up. Well maybe his wife too.
Harrison Wesley
Tucker attacked by a demon sheep; J.D. seduced by a demon couch…it’s the End Times, for sure.
brantl
@Old School: it always is when the management is morons!
frosty
@TaMara: I tried the liquor and potato chips last night. I’m trying coffee this morning. Didn’t work, still in the same timeline. I don’t have anything chocolate and I don’t dare poach any from Ms F!
Maybe a banana for breakfast is the secret ingredient? I can report back!
E.
I see The New Yorker picked today to drop a very long article about how Harris is, actually, a bad candidate who doesn’t have any known policies. “It’s important to be as honest as we can about Harris being a pretty bad candidate” is a direct quote from the last paragraph.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/the-perils-of-the-good-enough-candidate
lollipopguild
@cmorenc: A lot of the folks on the Reich ((Newt) view women as property.
Mousebumples
Also, re bsky, I actually made a bsky starter pack for Juicers, here – https://go.bsky.app/Vd5CXK3
I have many posters and commenters, along with some voices I see linked or front paged periodically. I’m open to adding/removing nyms, too.
I tried to link to a Balloon Juice feed that @jasiglar.bsky.social has started, but I’m not sure if that worked.
Bsky has no algorithm (unlike Twitter, Threads), so it is what you make of it. Follow or unfollow as you will. Block the assholes. Hopefully have some good conversations.
Trivia Man
@Anoniminous: I do similar estimates at work all the time. My caveat at the beginning is always “this is not a checkbook number”. As in… dont write a check for this amount or invoice somebody for this amount… i CAN do a speculative number at that precision but this ainnt it.
great work here!
Layer8Problem
@TaMara: Yeah, I’ll bet Tucker Carlson was attacked by a demon. He was probably spanked soundly and painfully and he probably complained about her hourly rate and asked for a discount.
Anoniminous
@Trivia Man:
Thank you
H.E.Wolf
@E.:
We know what our late, much-missed jackal efgoldman would say about that. ;-)
Sister Golden Bear
@Anoniminous: While I’m sure Republicans are concerned about how women are voting, I think the freak out has more to do when cultist men fearing their
womenbrood maresAxlotl tanks might actually act like independent beings.Layer8Problem
@H.E.Wolf: Probably a good time to unsubscribe.
hueyplong
@Anoniminous: Unless I misremember, since 1832, the Dem candidate has hit 55% only 3 times:
1932 FDR over Hoover
1936 FDR over Landon
1964 LBJ over Goldwater
So your scenario is acceptable, though we’d no doubt get a bunch of articles saying that under no circumstances is it any kind of mandate.
Gotta admit, I’m totally ok with living in a world in which the question of the day is whether our side has a mandate.
lowtechcyclist
@E.:
I have a hard time seeing that New Yorker article making a difference at this late point.
It’s not just that anyone who reads the New Yorker has already made up their mind. I take it for granted that what the chattering classes think eventually works its way out to affect the general public to some degree.
But with four days to go? I don’t think the ripple effects can traverse the path from the New Yorker to Joe and Jane Sixpack in these few days. They’ve missed the window.
Elizabelle
@Mousebumples: Thank you!! I am signed up for Bluesky under my ‘nym, but never use it. Will I be regretting the time suck in a few months!
Prior to your pack, was only following Alexandra Petri.
brantl
@Geo Wilcox: If you had to sleep with whatever would marry Tucker Failson, wouldn’t you sleep with dogs, too?
hueyplong
@Layer8Problem: I like to think a hooker ignored Carlson’s attempts to scream a safe word. It’s the romantic in me.
lowtechcyclist
@lollipopguild:
This. Fetuses have personhood, according to them, but women don’t.
HumboldtBlue
This ad from MeidasTouch in support of Kamala is brilliant.
And this explainer of how Musk is a deceitful piece of shit is worth a read, too.
Another Scott
I assume that the staffer who put this ad together is barely getting paid, and used free stock (or stolen) images. And nobody senior in her campaign cared to check the work.
However, there are other forces at work, as we know.
Enablers of monsters do not belong in the Senate.
Vote the monsters out!
Forward!!
Cheers,
Scott.
TBone
@dc: 🎯
TBone
@Jackie: excellent!
New Deal democrat
Just a quick follow up note to what I wrote earlier this week.
As expected, there was a big downdraft in the October employment report. I haven’t looked yet, but I am pretty sure the RW will make a big deal out of it. Payrolls increased only 12,000, and excluding government, private payrolls actually declined -28,000.
But 44,000 of the downturn was probably due to the short lived Boeing strike. Some other unknown proportion was due to the effects of Milton. There was some real weakness, but even so payrolls probably would have gained over 100,000 except for those two special factors.
TBone
@hueyplong: 😆🤭
Layer8Problem
@hueyplong: I like the way you think. And I get to hear Captain Renault say it in my head too.
Sister Golden Bear
@Mousebumples: Thanks again!
And just another remainder that if you’re new to Blue Sky and using the list, and want to get follow backs, it’s helpful to mention BJ in your bio, and/or have at least one post says a little something about you (doesn’t have to be specific). The downside of the rapid BlueSky growth is we’re also seeing an increase in crypto bros, money beggars etc. So I often won’t follow back a new account that’s completely blank. (Although I try to check back in a week or two to see if there’s any activity.)
TBone
@lowtechcyclist: when a blastocyte has more rights than its vessel.
Dave
@kindness: Eh if he is more reliable than Sinema I don’t really care more importantly if I’m hoping I’m going to hope that he isn’t necessary for control but is instead say the 52nd Senator as opposed to the 50th. If he is the 50th that is still vastly better than the alternative.
TBone
@HumboldtBlue: oh thank you thank you thank you 😍🥰😘
That new ad is going out across the nation to my peeps today.
HumboldtBlue
@kindness:
I’m with you, I don’t trust him as far as I can spit.
geg6
@kindness:
He’s great on labor, women’s health and climate change. He would be significantly better than Manchin or Sinema on those issues alone.
p.a.
@E.: Author of the New Yorker article, from wikipedia:
‘Nuff said.
Eural Joiner
@Mousebumples: shout out of thanks to you for doing this! I don’t really post (much) on Bluesky, but I do enjoy the community :)
Anoniminous
@Sister Golden Bear:
Yes. And it is only going to get harder for the poor little dears when Harris gets elected and gets gurl cooties all over the Oval Office.
Mousebumples
@Elizabelle: happy to help!
Mousebumples
@Eural Joiner: same! Glad to have all of you there (and here).
Van Buren
Arriving in my inbox seconds apart today:
Baud
@hueyplong:
Interesting, given how people always criticize Dems for not being more dominant.
Baud
@TaMara:
I hope the demon didn’t get rabies.
TBone
@Another Scott: 🤩
RaflW
@Kay: Imagine if every liberal in Texas who recently cancelled their WaPo contributed to the Texas Tribune (or ProPublica, etc). Probably stating the obvious, but we can both withhold for market failures, and contribute to the replacements.
Anoniminous
@hueyplong:
Considering the millions of newly registered women voters who are rabidly pro-Harris 55% of the national should be considered a minimum. IMNSHO Women are really fucking pissed off about Dobbs – as they should be.
zhena gogolia
@E.: Who wrote that shit? (not gonna click)
Jackie
I hate Abbott and DeSantis soooo much!😡
E.
@lowtechcyclist: That’s not my point. My point is, this magazine does not have value as a source of news. Bezos (and you) are surely right about the effects of these decisions on actual voters. But they are missing what these decisions tell readers about their publications.
hueyplong
@Anoniminous: Totally agree about Dobbs. I kind of like the fact that the other side refuses to agree that it’s a problem for them, and therefore doesn’t do anything to fix their problem.
But Dems getting to 55% in a presidential is historically difficult. If they do so, we’re talking MANDATE in bright, neon light. Considering 55 to be a minimum is something even this optimist hesitates to do.
TBone
An unabashed Friday night love song dedicated to Kamala and Tim 💙 because love is always greater than hate 🎶
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=voQWlL-jj5Q
I am grateful to be here witnessing this history!
E.
@Jackie: Seems awfully close to violating the “Do no harm” thing.
Velocifowl
@cmorenc:
The response is “wives submit to your husbands, as the Church the bride of Christ submits to God”. It’s a non negotiable part of Christianity.
Of course none of the GOP actually follows through with that. As demonstrated by Sam “I can’t control my Christian flag flying wife because I am a nutless wonder” Alito proved.
zhena gogolia
@p.a.: Oh, yeah, he was one of the Biden-bashers as well.
Weftage
@E.: It’s important to understand that no female, especially no Black female, especially no Black Democratic female, can be good enough, ever. All law and custom require that we undermine and diminish her at every opportunity, and turn any possible asset she may possess into a liability. Otherwise, the Balance of the Universe Will Be Upset, and our collective ween will fall off.
(No, of course I’m not bitter, after 72 years of living with this shit, why do you ask?)
Baud
@E.:
Opinion havers pretending their scientists telling us facts rather than just spouting off their own viewpoints.
Baud
@p.a.:
Makes me glad the Yankees lost.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples: Stop telling everyone to block me. Jeepers!
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: haha, I wouldn’t call you an asshole. But if Luntz ever shows up, auto-block!
Baud
Via reddit, good cartoon.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mousebumples:
“Doomerism is obeying in advance”
Note: Link requires log-in
Baud
@zhena gogolia:
He’s got a bright future ahead of him in the mainstream media.
Jess
“So unfair that the leopards are trying to eat MY face!”
https://www.propublica.org/article/texas-noncitizen-voter-roll-removal-mary-howard-elle
She also points out that she has the whitest of white names, and it’s crazy that she should be targeted…but I’m sure she’s not at all racist!
HinTN
@Baud: I’m always glad when the Yankees lose. (Even even Joe Torre managed them and I really respect Joe.)
Velocifowl
@Kay:
It’s not just Dobbs. Even before Dobbs we had issues like the Catholic Church using it’s money to buy up hospitals in areas to create an effective monopoly. There is no abortion, birth control, family planning, or any of that where they pull this off.
We need to start taxing these organizations into the ground. We also need to treat them like we do other religious objections that are not related to sex. If you have a religious objection that prevents you from doing the job that’s fine. We won’t make you do it. But you also can’t have that job and then refuse to do it.
Part of the reason these people hate public education and public health care is they want it all done by funneling money into the Church so they can require their religious edicts be followed.
HinTN
@Baud: Brilliant
Anoniminous
@hueyplong:
If they internalized the fact Dobbs is killing them their whole world comes crashing down.
I’m really tired of the Doom & Gloom that’s been running around this place so I admit I may be too optimistic. But the structural numbers, if you squint at them in the right way, say it’s not impossible. For example, women are dominating men in early voting..
Newsweek:
Of course not all women will vote for Harris but not all men will vote for Trump. It’s another indication this election is different from other elections in this century.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jess:
When I click the link, it’s coming up “page not found”. I think this might work
She’s definitely not racist /s
Baud
@Anoniminous:
IMHO you don’t get any brownie points for predicting our demise. If it happens, it happens.
Kay
@Velocifowl:
I agree. The United States was backward and archaic on womens rights due to the influence of fundamentalist religious prior to Dobbs.
But now it’s codified in almost half the states, so it’s now the policy of the United States. Women can be refused best practices health care if religious dogma so dictates.
different-church-lady
@TaMara: That last one would explain a lot…
hueyplong
@Anoniminous: May your every utterance be borne out.
Geminid
@kindness: A Senator Dan Osborne might prove to be more like another Angus King, a moderate Independent who votes with the Democratic Majority on most issues. That is, if there is a Democratic Majority.
JML
not according to the Bartlet’s. :P
Captain C
@E.: “Sure, we didn’t bother to check her website, or her record, or listen to any of her speeches or interviews, but really, how could someone like her* be any good? The only reason we’re not endorsing that studly white man is we saw what happened to WaPo and the LA Times and we’re a different sort of coward.” — The New Yorker, probably
*non-white, non-male
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
.
H.E.Wolf
Were I a subscriber, I sure would. :)
(Any day when I can use the subjunctive mode is a good day!)
Omnes Omnibus
@Velocifowl: You are starting to sound familiar for some reason.
Steve LaBonne
@E.: The New Yorker has turned to shit and Kang is just awful. Ignore.
hueyplong
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes, there are some obvious tells.
Jackie
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka): I absolutely agree! 😉
TBone
@Velocifowl: a commenter elsewhere coined a new-to-me term of endearment for these fucks:
I’d spell it ‘Fuxtians.’
HumboldtBlue
Jesus fucking Christ.
TBone
@Baud: love it!
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Jackie:
lol, yeah, I changed my mind about what I was saying and missed the window
Steve LaBonne
@HumboldtBlue: White people must never be made even slightly uncomfortable. Those are the rules, I didn’t make them.
TBone
@HumboldtBlue: GODDAMNIT
Jeffro
Has anyone mentioned yet that Hugh Hewitt quit the WaPo in a snit fit?
Baud
@Jeffro:
Too bad it’s too late to do the WaPo any good.
Kay
I have a counsin who lives in VA who has turned into a Right winger. She was never entirely plugged in to reality honestly, but we have been thrown together after decades of no contact in the course of help;ing another relative who is drug addicted and homeless and currently incarcerated for trespass.
Anyhoo- so this AM I called her to update her on our ward – I had located her in the jail she’s in and spoken to her public defender. I’m doing most of the work on this project “we” have so I intended to just inform and get off the phone, but she wanted to ask me about Vance as an Ohio senator, so I told her “he doesn’t work as a Senator- he’s a full time Right wing influencer and NY Times celebrity”. I was then met with this barrage about how great Vance is.
So this is common with me and Trumpers. They demand I not just accept their choices but validate them. I won’t do it. It’s not my duty to prop these people up and assure them they’re good people. I resent the demand and every time they do it I just dig in more on NOT fucking giving it to them.
They can vote for whoever they want. In turn, I can think about them anyway I want. I’m not running around demanding validation from them. Fly your fucking Trump flag high! Just dont demand I soothe your feelings while you do it. The fucking NEEDINESS is what gets me. “Me, me, me”
JoyceH
No one is even talking about what it says about Republican men that their wives might be afraid to tell them they’re voting for the other candidate.
Peke Daddy
@TaMara: Can I have yours?
Layer8Problem
@H.E.Wolf: “Any day when I can use the subjunctive mode is a good day!”
(Left eye starts to twitch in French.)
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@HumboldtBlue:
Jesus Fucking Christ is right. Talk about obeying in advance. How much influence would Biden have over the U.S. Archivist once she’s been appointed and confirmed? Has the WH been doing anything to oppose this behind the scenes for the last year?
Baud
@Kay:
There are two things they need which we control:
It’s what drives their zeal for governmental power.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Kay:
Amen. My Mom used to do that to me.. ask me how I felt about something, then go off on me when I answered truthfully.
Baud
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Yeah, to be honest, sometimes I think liberals take the wrong approach when they respond with a rant. A confident “I don’t agree” may get under their skin more. But that’s just a guess. I tend to just avoid these people.
Jeffg166
@Kay:
I keep calling them Nazis to my 89 year old right winger neighbor. He insists they not Nazis. I say if it talks and walks like a Nazi it’s a Nazi. He voted for trump. As did his wife at his direction.
dc
@HumboldtBlue:
“Visitors shouldn’t feel confronted … ” What visitors? Only white (right wing) visitors are people in this view.
Geminid
@Jeffro: I plan on catching Hewitt’s radio show* next Wednesday morning to hear how he spins a Harris victory. Then I’ll check out Mark Levin that night. Levin will be yapping like deranged terrier.
* Charlottesville-area Jackals can catch Hewitt 9am to noon on WINA (AM1070).
Mousebumples
@Omnes Omnibus: yeah, I’ve been sitting with that thought. And working on saying, “what the fuck? Why?”
sdhays
@Baud: I initially read that as “Harris being a pretty badass candidate” because my brain wouldn’t accept that someone would actually write what they apparently did write.
Dangerman
I’m strangely OK with using New England.
They asked the videographers to come to Nebraska and got a Fuck Off in reply; New England was acceptable. Thoroughly understandable.
Goku (aka Amerikan Baka)
@Baud:
I commented the other night how this drives me up a wall when I interact with customers at my job. Wearing their Trump shit, acting like nothing is wrong and expecting me to be nice to them when they’re voting for someone that would fuck me over as a worker, hell, someone who already has since the NLRB has been enjoined by a federal judge from making any further decisions, thanks to his judicial appointees and his political allies like Musk. Oh but if I tell them that, they’d blow a gasket!
TBone
@Geminid: 😆 thank you for your service at Projection Central! 🔦
Baud
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
Gotta be careful in a job setting. Hopefully politics doesn’t come up in your interactions. But you can still disrespect them in your heart.
Mousebumples
Warning – polls ahead, so scroll by if needed for your anxiety/etc., but this highlights why I think polls are off (even when it’s already looking good for Harris) –
Baud
@Geminid:
Hopefully the election outcome will be clear by then (enough that Trump’s refusal to concede can be given the back of the hand).
TBone
@Baud: my cousin who teaches teachers at the University in Ann Arbor, MI just now texted me a photo of her wearing her blue Chucks to work today, despite the admonition they’d received against wearing anything political. She loved my Halloween costume yesterday.
(ETA she’s the one who met Tim Walz and Gwen and sent glorious pics, which I framed and sent to her mother, my 80 y.o. Aunt who LOVED them.)
Kelly
@Kay: Lincoln’s Cooper’s Union speech
These natural, and apparently adequate means all failing, what will convince them? This, and this only: cease to call slavery wrong, and join them in calling it right. And this must be done thoroughly – done in acts as well as in words. Silence will not be tolerated – we must place ourselves avowedly with them.
Baud
@Kelly:
He was kind of wise.
KatKapCC
Reminds me of when some RWNJ tweeted that coastal liberals don’t know where their food comes from, and claimed to show a picture of the “heartland” — which was actually a photo of Manteca CA. You know, the most agriculturally productive state in the nation.
Percysowner
@Jeffro: Quite the epic flounce! I haven’t seen one that flouncy in years.
TBone
@TBone: she’s a regular Joe! (As Bogey said of his true love) ❤️💙🎶
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=V8-b9LK1trE
Kay
@Mousebumples:
I’m with you- I think we’re in good shape.
Betty Cracker
I heard an interview w/ Osborn recently, and though he went out of his way to disown the party label, it definitely sounds like he’d vote with Dems most if not all the time.
I wonder if Osborn-like candidates (NPAs who are pro-worker, anti-corporate, pro-choice, etc.) could win or at least put a scare into GOP opponents to curb Republican extremism in other red states where the Dem brand is toxic. We’ll see how he does.
Jeffro
@HumboldtBlue: “confronted”
hoo boy
hilts
Has anyone mentioned yet that Hugh Hewitt quit the WaPo in a snit fit?
@Jeffro:
Thank you for this asshole alert. What a thin-skinned prick.
Jeffro
@Mousebumples: looks like I better get a second bottle of Pedialyte for Wednesday morning… ;)
Soprano2
@Mousebumples: I agree, I think the pollsters have no idea how to model the electorate for this election.
Jeffro
@Geminid: ooooo – that’ll be good! Thanks for the direction, I have to hear this!!
Regnad Kcin
Anybody in the Omaha area: Dan will be holding a rally Sun 11/3 at 2pm (followed by canvassing!)
https://www.mobilize.us/osbornforsenate/event/737663/
Kay
@Kelly:
Thanks – that’s it exactly. Their Supreme Court justices do the same thing. The petulant DEMAND from Alito and Barrett that we admire and respect them.
No. We don’t.
MargyJ
Can someone point me to the ballot curing effort that needs people to make calls? Is there still time to do this? I’d like to help out if possible.
Ken B
@Mousebumples: Has anyone considered making this some sort of sticky notice?
Maybe make it a front-page post or something?
Jeffro
@Geminid: I’m already excited to hear Hewitt’s reasons/whining! (None of which will correspond to reality and/or take any responsibility, of course)
It’s going to be EP.IC.
Bupalos
@TBone: dour overthinking “realist”that I often am, I have to say… your posts are a real shot in the arm and an absolute pleasure.
Baud
@Jeffro:
Jezebels!
Mr. Bemused Senior
@Kelly @Kay:
To me it says that at some deep level they know they are in the wrong, hence the need for external validation.
Bemused Senior would say I’m naive.
Mousebumples
@Kay: thanks! I still get anxious sometimes (2016 PTSD, I’m sure), but my logical brain is getting good at poking holes in said anxiety.
Mousebumples
@Jeffro: haha, I really shouldn’t call in to work on Wednesday, but thankfully, I think I have some Pedialyte in a cabinet somewhere…
Mousebumples
@Soprano2: yup.
Breaking news – rich white men undercount the presence (and rage) of women. Who could have seen this coming? /sarcasm
While I think we’ll win, I want to run up the score. Also, leave nothing in the table.
TBone
@Bupalos: awww shucks!
Mousebumples
@Ken B: I’ll defer to the front pagers if anyone wants to do that. I’ll settle for posting in threads periodically. 😊
cmorenc
@Velocifowl:
The point of the exercise in challenging them to state why the husband isn’t committing an infidelity if his wife votes for Harris, but he votes for Trump is…precisely to force them to explicitly state their misogynistic premise that a married woman’s capacity to make decisions is subservient to her husband – she can only make decisions in areas where he grants her deference (i.e. trad-wife household sorts of stuff).
Geminid
@Baud: Hew Hewitt might be a good indicator in that respect. He is what I would call a Wall Street Journal Republican, and is well-networked in Republican establishment circles. So Hewitt may show which way the wind is blowing among party elites regarding Trump contesting the election.
Marmot
@Omnes Omnibus: Heart.
Soprano2
THIS. Notice how it’s always, always, always about the man’s anger and hurt feelings. By God he has the right to determine how his wife votes, and how dare anyone suggest otherwise? /s/s/s/s/s I did notice in one Faux News segment Jeannie Pirro was pushing back against them!
Jeffro
@Mousebumples: sugar-free Gatorade works quite well too. At least that’s what I hear…
HumboldtBlue
@Goku (aka Amerikan Baka):
This has nothing to do with Biden, these staffers are making the decisions themselves.
Soprano2
@Mousebumples: Stuff like this is why I say they cannot model the electorate for this election properly.
Soprano2
@Kay: They’re all Eric Cartman.
Baud
Via reddit, When Trump/Vance lose…
RaflW
@Jeffro: Good bye to racid rubbish.
Kelly
@Kay:I find it simultaneously comforting and exhausting to know MAGA are just the latest manifestation of evil assholes throughout history.
Nora
@Van Buren: Every time I see one of those ads saying “Protect Girls Sports” against Proposition 1 in New York, I want to find the people behind it and hurt them. You know those people don’t give a damn about girls’ sports and are just using that as a way to hide their transphobia and hatred. It doesn’t work.
Soprano2
@Mousebumples: I just read a story about Nate Silver scolding pollsters for “putting a thumb on the scale”. The story said he thinks TCFG is going to win 55%-45%, but nowhere did it mention that he’s paid by a major TCFG supporter. They presented him as an unbiased observer.
Geminid
@Jeffro: Trump hasn’t lost yet, but that sounds like a post mortem report on a failed campaign. I thought the same about Nikki Haley’s criticism of Trump’s rhetoric earlier this week. It’s like both Hewitt and Haley believe that Trump is going down.
TBone
@Baud: nice 💪
Soprano2
@Nora: I’ll go you one better – the R candidate for governor in Missouri says in an ad that he won’t allow “transgender boys” to play girls sports! Holy cow…….
Geminid
@Baud: Eve started it! And don’t forget Delilah either.
hueyplong
@Soprano2: So Silver honestly thinks the even more degraded Trump will get the highest percentage vote in a US presidential since Ronald Reagan in 1984? How can sentient beings not be offended by the level of intellectual dishonesty on display?
prostratedragon
Best comment to WaterGirl’s embed at the top:
Baud
@Soprano2:
That would be an insane popular vote total for Trump.
NoraLenderbee
@Jeffro: For those who don’t want to click a Fox link, here is another source.
Daily Beast
cain
@Jeffro:
This is exactly what the messaging will be when Kamala wins. The “enemy within” are women. The pastors especially are going to lose their shit.
lowtechcyclist
@E.:
I can see how that matters in the case of the WaPo which millions have relied on as a source of news every day. I figure the highbrow readership of the New Yorker can look after themselves.
Mousebumples
@Jeffro: yeah, we have Gatorade Zero in the house, I think. And Liquid IV powder to mix with water.
mvr
Just back from voting for Osborne. (And Harris, of course! As well as abortion rights and against tax money for private schools.) Longish line at the election office in Lancaster county. Took an hour.
Will be headed to Omaha to call people with early vote ballots to tell them they should be deposited and not mailed in a little bit. Did it yesterday and it wasn’t high stress work.
Mousebumples
@Soprano2: yup. Let’s work to make them extra more wrong.
TBone
@RaflW: rancid racist?
Mousebumples
@Soprano2: to quote a few Juicers we all miss…
Blech.
Fuck ’em.
Sister Golden Bear
@Van Buren:
Trump has spend almost $30 million in the past five weeks on anti-trans ads — more than double of what he’s spent on anti-immigrant ads, and almost the same amount as he’s spent on all other ads. Hopefully, he’s repeating the mistake Republicans made in 2022 in Michigan, where they went all-in on anti-trans ads — and lost the trifecta.
hilts
Latest serving of steaming bullshit from the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board:
h/t https://www.mediaite.com/politics/wall-street-journals-editorial-board-defends-trump-by-saying-his-attention-span-is-too-short-to-stage-a-real-coup
TBone
@Mousebumples: Pedialyte makes a magical powder too!
https://www.target.com/p/pedialyte-electrolyte-powder-variety-pack-8ct-2-4oz/-/A-14765607
Frankensteinbeck
@Geminid:
The Haggadah would suggest Lilith started it. The Gnostics would… suggest… uh… the Gnostics were pretty weird, let’s put it that way. I did appreciate that most Gnostic texts said that Eve was better than Adam and that’s why the evil Creator punished her by making her subordinate to Adam.
JoyceH
@Mr. Bemused Senior: They know they’re wrong? Bingo.
I will never forget being glued to the TV on J6 and watching that mob hunting for Pelosi. One fellow was calling out in this mocking, crooning sing-song, “Naaancy, oh Naaaaancy! We’re comin’ for ya, Nancy!” And it hit me like a ton of bricks. They know they’re the villains – they KNOW. Why else would they be cosplaying the deranged stalker-killer in a thriller? Did you ever see a hero leading a mob after an elderly woman, crooning in that sinister fashion? Nope. Only villains do that. The guys in prison might be posing as pathetic mistreated freedom fighters for attention, but when they were committing the crimes that got them locked up, they knew damn well they were villains and they reveled in it.
Sister Golden Bear
@Sister Golden Bear: Erin in the Morning, a trans journalist who focuses on anti-trans efforts is hopeful there may be a silver lining, not just for the election, but for ultimately hurting the cultists anti-trans efforts in general.
Baud
@Sister Golden Bear:
Wow. I heard about Ted Cruz going all in on trans hate, but didn’t realize how much Trump was investing. I’m usually bored with Republicans, but I am curious about what they think they’re seeing.
TBone
@hilts: GTFOH WITH YOUR LIES, I SAY TO THAT drivel.
RaflW
@Geminid: I really want next week to finish sinking Nikki Haley’s political career. Endorsing him after correctly calling out his complete unacceptability for the job should crush her.
But Republicans get 1000 do overs. :/
Baud
@hilts:
Classic abusers argument. We really should be used to it by now.
TBone
@JoyceH: 🎯
Almost Retired
There’s an argument to be made that California and New York cost us the House in 2022. New York because of inexplicable in-party fuckery, which I still don’t understand. But in my state, I think it was something of an “it can’t happen here” complacency about Dobbs.
It feels different this time. This is (I realize) a facile and anecdotal observation, but generally here in Los Angeles, the yard signs and bumper stickers are usually focused on local races (and there’s plenty of those signs- ahem…. cough….Nathan Hochman).
But this cycle, there are Harris Walz signs everywhere – there are 11 on my two-block-long street. Of course Harris will win California. The usually smug and complacent Los Angeles Democrats are fired up!! It’s almost as if they’ve realized “actually, it can happen here.” Underestimate Dobbs at your own peril, Republicans and newspapers owned by billionaires.
RaflW
@Baud: I think they’re seeing few options. They have no positive message. They are too blinkered to seek out other lines of attack. They’re lazy & stupid.
I don’t want to underestimate the power of leveraging hate and scapegoating out-groups. But despite a lot of caterwauling, the general conditions in the US are reasonably good. Scapegoating and attacking while unemployment is 4.1%, real wage growth has been solid, gas prices keep falling, etc, it’s what they have, but it’s not very powerful.
H.E.Wolf
Moi aussi, camarade!
I still have my little hardback copy of Le Nouveau Bescherelle: L’Art de Conjuguer: Dictionnaire des 8000 Verbes.
The spine is held together with electrician’s tape, because I kicked it across my bedroom one day during 8th or 9th grade, in a fit of bad temper.
It was probably le subjonctif that put me over the edge.
Velocifowl
@cmorenc:
Maybe it has to do with their obsession with being cucked?
TBone
– Danielle Coffyn
Sister Golden Bear
@Kay:
Same thing Lincoln called out in his Cooper Union speech.
Baud
@RaflW:
Same. It helped get Bush reelected, but that was a different time for many reasons.
FWIW, the Trump ads I’ve seen on national TV have been about immigration and the economy. Which makes more sense as issues (not on substance, but on perception).
Bruce K in ATH-GR
@Kay: In the unlikely event that I ever have to speak face-to-face with any of the Sinister Six, they will be Mister Roberts, Mister Alito, Mister Thomas, Mister Gorsuch, Mister Kavanaugh, and Mrs. Barrett.
“Justice” is reserved for Justice Sotomayor, Justice Kagan, and Justice Jackson.
Lyrebird
@Anoniminous:
Whoa, running numbers is great but
Pew’s own analysis said maybe 47% of white women voted MAGA in 2016, which is still horrifying, but let’s not boost memes for the other side.
See also Time article
HumboldtBlue
Lyrebird
@Baud: Scapegoating and using a bullhorn to the white supremacists worked VERY well for the orange menace when he had ruzzian help! No wonder he is repeating what had been successful. Plus they truly think that way. (spits)
frosty
@Almost Retired: I sent 300 postcards to CA-47. Hope it helps!
Sister Golden Bear
@Kay:
Eric Cartman: Respect my authoritah!
TBone
@TBone: I am making ham glazed with local apple butter and honey, cheddar mashed potatoes from scratch, and fresh baby spinach, lightly steamed.
TBone
@Bruce K in ATH-GR: I have other forms of addressing them.
lowtechcyclist
@Velocifowl:
Well, they do pick and choose. For instance, the Bible is pretty clear on how we should treat foreigners in our land:
This message is reiterated in numerous other Scripture verses. (As if “love your neighbor as yourself” is insufficient to get the point across.) But they’re OK with rounding up 20 million of them, imprisoning them in camps, and then attempting to deport them.
No use expecting them to believe the very same Bible they claim to regard as inerrant, the moment it is the least bit inconvenient for them.
Jeffro
@Mousebumples: SO AWESOME – thank you!
p.a.
Didn’t Lincoln touch on this in a speech before he was elected Pres, something like “we must not just abide the existence of the peculiar institution, we must as well exclaim it as a positive boon to civilization…”?
ETA: see Comment 139
Bupalos
@Soprano2: I think you had to read that wrong. Silver’s take has been and is that Trump is more likely to win the EC than Harris by a very tiny margin. Could be that he thinks the EC odds now are 55-45, but that isn’t remotely the same as a popular vote total like that.
Melancholy Jaques
@E.:
Hah! A sure sign that the campaign is doing well! Some “even the liberal” publication reverts to the default position of shitting on the Democrats.
Maybe I’m a blind in the mind asshole, but I’m really not cool with any criticism of Harris. Think of every Democrat of note in this country and tell me who could have done better under the circumstances.
Almost Retired
@frosty: Thanks! I’m sure your postcards helped. The Republican, Scott Baugh, is a lumbering dinosaur from the “Orange Curtain” era and should be easy to defeat. But it’s closer than I would have thought.
Geminid
@RaflW: Personally, I think Haley’s career is already over. She just doesn’t know it yet.
Sister Golden Bear
@Soprano2:
He doesn’t actually mean trans boys — it’s an intentional misgendering of trans girls.
FWIW, it’s common among UK TERFs for refer to trans woman as “trans-identified males” (“TIM”s for short) as a way to deny that trans women are women. To the extent TERFs even think of trans men, they often refer to them as “trans-identified females” (aka “TIF”s). MO candidate is engaged in the same tactic.
Layer8Problem
@H.E.Wolf: Good grief, I’ve been trying to download the Bescherelle Conjugation app into my damned Android and it’s declining my card. It’s some kind of Gallic plot . . .
Soprano2
@hueyplong: I don’t think he honestly believes that, I think he’s saying it because Thiel wants him to say it.
Sister Golden Bear
@Soprano2:
Gotta pump up that betting market before he dumps. Yeah, it’s illegal for him as a US citizen to bet on an election, but with crypto….
Melancholy Jaques
@Betty Cracker:
I’d be interested to see someone try. I’m more curious about things we might be able to do to make our brand less toxic. We’ve tried enacting programs that help people in their lives, but I’d like to hear some other suggestions.
Melancholy Jaques
@Baud:
55% would be insane for any candidate of either party at this point. Obama 2008 was a blowout and he only got 52.9%
Baud
@Melancholy Jaques:
Agree 100%.
Another Scott
@Mousebumples: 👍
TCFFG lost in 2020 when he had the benefits of incumbency.
And then he pulled the January 6, 2021 autogolpe.
And then the SCOTUS vomited up Dobbs in June 2022.
And abortion rights won in Kansas in August 2022 by 59.2% to 40.8% when the polling said it was the other way by 47% : 43%.
And more.
I like Kamala’s chances, very, very much. Women are doing the work, and it looks like the public pollsters still aren’t understanding what happened….
Cheers,
Scott.
Frankensteinbeck
@TBone:
The Gnostics praised Eve for eating the fig of the Tree of Knowledge, because it was the first act of rebellion against the evil Creator. Mind you the Gnostics lost and were exterminated.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Melancholy Jaques:
Nobody.
Kamala & Tim have run an almost perfect campaign under the most perilous & stressful circumstances imaginable.
I don’t know how or why we manage to do this, but the USA has a knack for finding incredible political talent when we most need it, when the circumstances are the most dire.
I expect MVP will win and win big and have a very successful administration, and that future historians will with benefit of hindsight also be surprised at how well she & Joe Biden negotiated the perils of what was effectively a high stakes baton pass within a sitting administration, without letting egos make a hash of the details, allowing Kamala to run as a candidate of change without Joe getting his back up about that or stepping on her message.
With Obama, Biden, and now Harris, we’ve drawn an inside straight when it comes to navigating the shoals of American politics, and people living thru this right now in the moment may not fully appreciate how remarkable this is or how good we have it. My biggest concern is that this run of talent is not going to last forever and we need to get the country into a state where it can survive having a doofus running as the Democratic nominee – which right now we most emphatically cannot.
Trivia Man
@Geminid: #1 important vote that will outweigh all others combined: Schumer vs turtle for leader. Or whoever is chosen by each side. Anything past that is gravy.
Geminid
@Melancholy Jaques: You might study Kansas, and the electoral successes of Governor Laura Kelly and Rep. Sharice Davids as well as news coverage of their activities while in office. I see very little about either Democrat in “national” news sites, but state and local sites report on them a lot. Rep. Davids was first elected in 2018, and I think Governor Kelly was too.
Dave
@Melancholy Jaques: Suspect that he’s claiming that Trump has a 55% chance of winning not that he’ll receive 55% of the vote. Nate is definitely a bit off the wagon but not that far off it last I checked. More than willing to be wrong about this.
Abnormal Hiker
@H.E.Wolf: Soyez bon et de bonne humeur, et vous plairez
Omnes Omnibus
@JoyceH: Warriors, come out to play!
hueyplong
@Dave: If you’re right, he’s just placing himself under the percentages of the incel-heavy betting market numbers, the better to position himself to brag regardless of which way things go.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@TBone: ♥
Geminid
@Trivia Man: Thiis is very true, except that McConnell has taken himself out of the running and there will be a contest among Republican Senators for new leader.
It’s thought that Senators John Cornyn and John Thune are the two leading contenders, but Rick Scott Scott says, “Don’t count me out.” On the other hand, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell says, “No, you can count Rick Scott out.”
Baud
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Baud! 20XX! stands ready for that moment.
H.E.Wolf
@Layer8Problem:
Sorry to hear of the fiendish Gallic plot.
Re: the subjunctive in English: I have a dear friend who pointed out to me once that in musical theatre, it’s not uncommon to have a song about hopes, dreams, what-if’s… that employs the subjunctive.
Fiddler on the Roof: “If I Were a Rich Man”
The Wizard of Oz: “If I Were King of the Forest”
Camelot: “If Ever I Would Leave You”
and so on….
Jeffro
@Omnes Omnibus: I knew full well what it was and STILL clicked the link…I better not hear that damned bottle-clinking in my nightmares tonight
hueyplong
@Baud: I look forward to that happy day.
Layer8Problem
@Abnormal Hiker: “Où sont les Neigedens d’antan?”
Soprano2
@Sister Golden Bear: Oh yeah, I know exactly what it is, I was surprised he’d put it in a TV ad.
piratedan
@Mousebumples: thanks for including me, I’m doing my best to follow fellow jackals back….
lowtechcyclist
@Baud:
Since we don’t have a link to where Silver said it, I’d ask whether he said Trump is going to win with 55% of the vote, or whether he said he gives Trump a 55% chance of winning.
Big difference, and I don’t think even Silver’s dumb enough to think either that Trump will get 55% of the vote, or that anyone would believe him if he said it.
H.E.Wolf
Conseil très sage! I love it! If only I’d read that in middle school, my conjugations textbook would still be in mint condition. :)
Soprano2
@Dave: Maybe that’s what he was saying, but it wasn’t clear from the article what that percentage was. Poor writing, I guess.
Captain C
@lowtechcyclist:
FTFY
Steve LaBonne
@Melancholy Jaques: The idea that what voters want is a 50 page policy manual is always good for a belly laugh.
Gravenstone
@hilts: What a completely unmitigated pile of steaming bullshit. “Not our fault. It was those damned Democrats whut dunnit!”
JML
@lowtechcyclist: I’m sure he’s saying TFG has a 55% chance of winning in his “model” which is basically just whatever his corrupted ass brain says it is at this point. Considering he’s no longer an uninterested observer, maybe he should STFU about anyone putting the thumb on the scale, since he’s had his thumb on it ever since his new masters started telling him to dance.
(enabling the addict is certainly one way to control them…for a while)
RevRick
@cmorenc: If Carlson was attacked by demons, it’s because he had it coming. Was he provocatively dressed? Did he lead them on?
RevRick
@Velocifowl: Actually, it’s non-negotiable only for fundamentalist interpretations.
There are two distinct views of the nature of marriage that have been held by Christian churches, and they both hinge on the question of what Paul, the apostle, meant when he said, “it’s better that people marry than burn in hell?”
The Catholic/traditionalist answered the question by saying marriage is based in sexual desire (so lack of sex is the worst). They viewed marriage from a sexual/sacramental perspective.
Calvinist Puritans, said that’s not true, and paired their response with the words of God that “it’s not good for a human to be alone (so loneliness is the worst hell). They developed a companionate/covenantal view of marriage based on mutual promises freely given. So when Jesus declared that only adultery justifies divorce, they harkened back to how the Jewish prophets used adultery as a metaphor of a covenant broken by humans. In their view adultery referred to anything that broke the covenant between marriage partners, which could, for example, include things like spousal abuse.